On March 16, 2020, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) finally started accepting applications for flood infrastructure projects under Senate Bill 7 signed by the Governor on June 13, 2019. We’re now at 941 days since Hurricane Harvey.
What Took So Long
What took so long?
Harvey happened shortly after the 2017 legislature concluded.
The Governor would immediately release money from the Rainy Day Fund.
The next legislature met in January of 2019.
It took until the end of May, 2019 for SB7 to work it’s way through the Senate and House.
The Governor signed the bill in June.
The bill stipulated that the fund had to be approved to voters in November 2019. It was.
With construction on many projects taking a year or more, the earliest citizens may see benefits from many of these grants will be 4 years post Harvey.
941 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 190 since Imelda
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A friend, Dr. Matthew Berg, CEO and Principal Scientist of Simfero Consultants, observed that flooding and the corona virus are alike. The more I thought about that, the more intrigued I became. Controlling both requires similar strategies.
Controlling Convergence is Key
Of course, when looking at the corona virus, it spreads from “one-to-many.” And when looking at flooding, the relationship is reversed, “many-to-one.” But stay with me for a moment. Because similarities will become apparent at the point of convergence.
Dozens of creeks and streams flow into Lake Houston from approximately 2,600 square miles.
Creeks and streams from 2,600 square miles converge on Lake Houston during heavy rains. That can cause flooding. Likewise, thousands of corona virus victims could soon flood the area’s limited number of hospitals.
Harvard Study Shows Hospitals Rapidly Becoming Overwhelmed
Last week, ProPublic published an article, “Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.” The article is about a Harvard Global Health Institute study. It modeled different rates for the spread of the virus: 20%, 40% and 60% of the population infected over 6, 12 and 18 months. The authors then compared results against the number of available hospital beds in various areas.
Interestingly, they used the Houston region as their first test case. In only one of the nine scenarios, did we have enough hospital beds to handle the flood of corona victims. That scenario was for 20% infected (the smallest percentage) over 18 months (the longest period).
Darkest blue represents 6-month peak, middle blue a 12-month peak, and lightest an 18-month peak.
In the graph above, the areas shaded with crosshatching represent the normal baseline level of bed occupancy for non-corona patients in Houston hospitals. The colored areas represent the percentage of the area’s population projected to seek admission within a 6-, 12- or 18-month period.
2.8X Available Hospital Beds
The ProPublica article about the Harvard study goes into much more detail. It looks at all 50 states, the number of ICU beds, available ventilators, people etc.
In Houston, the researchers found, “The influx of patients would require 14,300 beds over 12 months, which is 2.8 times the available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers’ scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.”
ProPublica Article on Harvard Study
One hospital administrator said, ““The reality is that you can’t create unlimited hospital beds and ventilators. We have what we have, so we really have to hope that it’s enough, and that we’re prepared enough.”
Flattening the Curve Prevents Avoidable Deaths
Said the authors, “By modeling the data over the three time periods, the scenarios illustrate how much the nation could “flatten the curve” with social measures to ensure hospitals have greater capacity to care for coronavirus patients.”
Epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch, head of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics said, “The way to permanently stop new cases from setting off long chains of transmission is to have each case infect considerably less than one case on average. The numbers will go down. There will still be little outbreaks, but not big ones.”
Basically, Dr. Lipsitch argues that controlling the flood of victims early at the source is the only way to avoid overwhelming health care resources.
This YouTube video from Vox about Avoidable Deaths shows how slowing things down and flattening the curve helps everyone.
It’s much the same in physical flooding. Too much water in too little time overwhelms the available capacity of streams, rivers and lakes. Property is destroyed. People die.
The beat the peak loophole in MoCo regulations says that if developers can prove they can get their runoff to the river before the peak of a flood, they don’t have to build detention ponds. That’s what happened in the 2200-acre Artavia development. Of course, this incentivizes developers to get their water to the river ASAP.
And that’s exactly the opposite of what you need to protect lives and property downstream.
It’s kind of like saying, “Let’s infect everybody as fast as we can.”
Slowing down the spread of the virus will give researchers time to develop a vaccine or for the population to develop herd immunity … before hospitals become overwhelmed.
Unfortunately, there is no vaccine or herd immunity to protect downstream residents from greed. And there never will be. That’s why we need to close the “beat the peak” loophole before it’s too late.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Vox.png?fit=1870%2C1042&ssl=110421870adminadmin2020-03-25 17:22:522020-03-25 17:22:57Parallel Between Flooding and Corona Virus
General location of new sand mine, south of Conroe, west of I-45 and West Fork, and east of Carriage Hills subdivision.
40 Minute Session with One Spectator
Likely due to the corona virus scare, only one spectator showed up to the Commissioners Court meeting, Paul Crowson. Crowson reported that the motion carried. He also said the entire meeting lasted only 40 minutes.
Minutes and video of the meeting still have not been posted. Crowson says he queried Montgomery County Attorney BD Griffin for details about the suit and Giffin replied only with “No comment.”
I wonder if the decision by Commissioners to allow the County Attorney to sue will actually result in a lawsuit. With permission to sue now in hand, the District Attorney may use that as a tool to get the defendant(s) to remediate whatever damage he/they have done. Either way, that’s good news.
A New Day for MoCo Sand Miners?
Regardless, this signals somewhat of a sea change for Montgomery County. The County passes out tax breaks to sand miners like Halloween candy, even though they violate State Controller guidelines.
More news to follow as it becomes available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Sand-Mine-Area.jpg?fit=1200%2C784&ssl=17841200adminadmin2020-03-24 21:17:182020-03-24 21:22:04Montgomery County Commissioners Vote to Sue New Sand Mine Near Carriage Hills
Starting tonight at 11:59 P.M. and lasting through April 3, 2020, “this Order requires all individuals anywhere in Harris County, to stay at home – except for certain Essential Activities and work to provide Essential Business and Essential Government services or perform essential infrastructure construction, including housing.”
Rustling Elms Bridge over Taylor Gully during peak of May 7, 2019 flood.
Non-essential and prohibited:
All exercise facilities including gyms, swimming pools and martial arts studios must close.
A broad range of retail shops must close including barbers, hair salons, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys, game rooms, massage parlors, malls, flea markets, movie theaters, concert halls and more.
All public and private gatherings occurring outside a single household or living unit are prohibited.
Nursing homes, retirement, and long-term care facilities must prohibit non-essential visitors except for end-of-life visitation or critical assistance.
Restaurants will remain closed except for drive-through and carry-out orders.
Churches may only provide services via video or teleconference.
Essential and still exempt:
Grocery stores
Pharmacies
Gas stations
Convenience stores
Liquor stores
Car dealers and repair facilities
Professional services, such as legal, accounting, insurance, etc.
Flood Control Not On List
The corona virus prohibited and exempted lists stretch for 20 pages. They are too numerous to summarize here. However, as I read through the list, nowhere did I see “flood control” or “flood mitigation” work. That made me wonder whether we had potentially traded one type of crisis for another.
So I reached out to county officials and asked how today’s corona virus order would affect the activities of the Flood Control District. Said another way, were they considered “essential activities.”
Flood Control Deemed Essential, Will Continue
The answer: Yes, Flood Control is considered essential under the infrastructure and construction provisions of the order. No, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will not shut down mitigation projects.
Matt Zeve, Deputy Executive Director of HCFCD had this to say. “Everyone who can will work from home. We had already been phasing that in before today. All construction and field work will continue as normal…with appropriate social distancing and hygiene procedures of course.”
Moving Into High-Risk Season for Flooding
As we move into April and May, the rainiest months of Spring, that’s comforting. A reader asked me today, “What would happen if we got a flood on top of the corona virus?” My first inclination was to tell her she needs to write the screenplay and go to Hollywood. But then I said, “That’s actually pretty plausible.”
People mucking out houses in unsanitary conditions and tight, crowded spaces could accelerate the spread of the virus. Crowded rescue boats and choppers would make a first responders nightmare, especially when rescuing people with the corona virus. Thousands of evacuees in churches, schools and convention centers. Evacuating high-risk populations like the elderly from nursing homes. These are not pleasant thoughts.
That’s why I’m glad that the work of flood control will continue as normal. Hurricane season is only nine weeks away.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2020
939 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 188 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Taylor-Gully-at-Peak-e1728600738227.jpg?fit=1100%2C327&ssl=13271100adminadmin2020-03-24 20:14:102020-03-24 20:14:18Corona Virus Lockdown Expansion Will Not Affect Flood Mitigation
The rain earlier this week continues to filter into Lake Conroe and raise the lake level. As of today at 3 p.m. today, the level reached 200.35 msl (mean feet above sea level).
Lake Conroe level as of 3pm on 3/24/2020
That means the lake level now exceeds the average for April – and there’s still a week left in March. With additional rain or inflow, the lake could soon reach its highest point in an average year.
Monthly variation in average levels of Lake Conroe dating back to 1973 when the dam was built.
The highest monthly average happens in May when the lake reaches 200.44 feet. That means the lake is now 0.09 feet (1.08 inches) from its average annual peak in May.
That also means that the SJRA will begin releasing water on April 1 as part of its seasonal lowering plan to reduce flood risk to downstream communities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/24/2020
938 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Screen-Shot-2020-03-24-at-3.06.55-PM.png?fit=400%2C228&ssl=1228400adminadmin2020-03-24 15:35:362020-03-24 15:44:06Lake Conroe Level Now Exceeds Average for April a Week Early
Montgomery County commissioners will vote Tuesday whether to sue a new sand mine on the west side of the San Jacinto West Fork. The mine is in a Conroe development called Carriage Hills.
Page 1 of the document above says that, “… it appears that MBM Sand Company, LLC and Carl Hudspeth, individually and doing business as Skilled International, LLC have violated, is violating, or is threatening to violate Subchapter I of Chapter 16 of the Tex. Water Code, or one or more rules adopted by Montgomery County under said subchapter and has failed and refused to cease and desist as demanded by the Montgomery County Engineer and/or the Montgomery County Attorney.”
The county seeks both injunctive relief to remove illegal improvements and restore preexisting conditions. The county also seeks monetary fines totaling $100 for each act of violation and each day of violation.
The complaint, however, does not enumerate specific alleged violations.
Depending on alleged violations, the outcome of this could set a precedent for other sand mines operating on the West Fork.
Homeowners Have Additional Complaints
The mine also faces problems from local homeowners.
The mine is operating adjacent to a once-quiet neighborhood called Carriage Hills in Conroe. It is sending heavy trucks weighed down with sand up and down Carriage Hills Boulevard. Residents say the noise exceeds 85 decibels, the trucks have torn up roads, and they fear for their children’s safety.
The trucks, as many as 12 at a time, begin idling outside the plant gate at 6:30 a.m. and run up and down Carriage Hills Boulevard hundreds of times a day – by one count 600 times.
They believe 600 dump trucks a day at intervals of 2 minutes or less, starting at 6:30 a.m. “substantially interferes” with their ability to enjoy their land and that it causes “unreasonable discomfort or annoyance.”
The operation will not end anytime soon without a restraining order. The company is just now removing the overburden, trying to get to frack sand.
Only Restraining Order Will Stop Operation Now
Homeowners believe the operation will likely devalue their properties.
They also worry about the safety risk to children given the high volume of industrial vehicles with tons of payload traveling at speeds that make them unable to stop to stop quickly on residential streets.
Some of the residents plan to present the petition to commissioners tomorrow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/23/2020
938 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Two-Trucks.jpg?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=16771200adminadmin2020-03-23 21:10:532020-05-25 05:34:12MoCo Will Vote Tomorrow on Whether to Sue New Sand Mine in Carriage Hills
The tribe fought for more than 160 years to get legal protection for the Whanganui River. In 2017, New Zealand granted legal personhood to the Whanganui River. Since then, other nations have followed suit in an effort to protect the environment.
The author’s article, Kate Evans, says, “Environmental personhood has been studied as a way of protecting nature since at least the 1970s. In his book Should Trees Have Standing?, American law professor Christopher D. Stone argued that environmental interests should be recognised apart from human ones. His work influenced Maori academics James Morris and Jacinta Ruru, who wrote Giving Voice to Rivers, making a case for why waterways in New Zealand should be seen as legal people.”
India Grants then Revokes Legal Personhood Status
Evans says that following the decision in 2017, the Ganges and Yamuna rivers in India and all rivers in Bangladesh also received legal rights – although, in India, the decision was later revoked.
Evidently, personhood status can backfire in some places. If the river is a person, and the river floods someone, the river can then be held liable. That’s the downside. But on the plus side, the river can sue polluters.
Protecting Essential, but Voiceless Elements in Nature
The latest edition of Stone’s book continues to serve as the definitive statement as to why trees, oceans, animals, and the environment as a whole should be bestowed with legal rights. The argument: to help protect the voiceless elements in nature for future generations.
Think enough people in Texas would support legal personhood for the San Jacinto River? It’s not unheard of in the U.S.
In Ohio, Lake Erie, which supplies much of the state’s drinking water, was given limited legal rights a few years ago.
The San Jacinto supplies much of our drinking water.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/23/2020
937 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Screen-Shot-2020-03-23-at-2.34.14-PM.png?fit=1194%2C668&ssl=16681194adminadmin2020-03-23 15:10:552020-03-23 16:08:43New Zealand Gives River Status of “Legal Personhood”
Yesterday, I posted about rains that quickly brought Lake Conroe back up to its average for March. Additional rain last night and today brought the lake up another 3.24 inches to 200.23 as of 9pm on 3/22/2020. That means the lake is now within about 1 inch of its average level for April.
Source SJRA.net. Readings as of 9pm on Sunday, March 22, 2020.46-year average levels for Lake Conroe. Variation due to rainfall, evaporation and releases. Source: SJRA.net. Chuck Gilman presentation and January 2020 board meeting.
This now means that SJRA would release enough water starting April 1 to reduce the level of the lake to 200 feet above sea level. If the lake remains at this level, that would mean lowering it about 3.24 inches starting April 1.
The purpose of the SJRA’s temporary seasonal lake lowering program: to provide a margin of safety against flooding until downstream mitigation measures can be put in place. Those include West Fork mouth bar dredging and additional floodgates on Lake Houston to lower the level of the lake faster during a flood.
Renewal of the policy was the subject of a bitter fight between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston between December 2019 and February 2020. It culminated in a board meeting attended by approximately 1500 residents from both communities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/22/2020
936 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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Lake Conroe area businesses, boaters, home values and tax rolls got a boost yesterday. Yes, despite the drought, Lake Conroe returned to its normal level for this time of year. The watershed received an average of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain in the last 36 hours. That’s all it took.
The March average for the last 47 years (since the lake was built) is 199.98. The current lake level as of 5pm on 3.21.2020 is 199.96. That virtually equals the March average.
The difference, 0.02 ft., is less than a quarter inch. That’s less that the thickness of a pencil.
36 hour rainfall totals for Lake Conroe area sensors. Source: SJRA.onerain.com.SJRA Dashboard as of 5pm on 3.21.202047 year average for monthly Lake Conroe levels. Source: SJRA
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Current-vs-Average-March-Conroe-Level.jpg?fit=1200%2C962&ssl=19621200adminadmin2020-03-21 17:51:392020-03-21 18:20:53Lake Conroe Returns to Average Level for March
LJA Engineers submitted a master drainage plan for the 2,200 acre Artavia development that Montgomery County approved. It has no detention ponds. And the drainage channels currently do not connect to the San Jacinto river. Even though LJA said they would connect to the river, the plans do not specify how, when or where. As you will see below.
Dead-end drainage. Currently, the Artavia drainage channel stops just short of the Liberty Materials Moorehead mine in the background. The San Jacinto River lies beyond the mine. This and all other aerial photos below were all taken March 6, 2020.
A Sand Mine Is Not the San Jacinto
The plans DO show the channel terminating in a sand mine between Artavia and the river. A spokesman for the sand mine said the developer is still trying to work out environmental and easement issues.
Aerial photos show the main channel stops about a 100+ yards short of LMI’s shipment facility. Meanwhile, during heavy rains, the dead-end drainage overflows onto surrounding properties. A spokesman for the mine claimed that the overflow flooded the mine last year and caused the dikes to break. He alleged that was the proximate cause for 56 million gallons of white sediment-laden water entering the West Fork.
Exhibit 2 of Artavia Drainage Impact Analysis from 9/20/2018 shows the project outfall in the middle of the LMI sandpit that borders Moorehead Road and the San Jacinto West Fork in Montgomery County.
The project manager for LJA did not return calls to explain their position on the dead-end drainage. And when asked for an explanation, the new Montgomery County Engineer (not the one who signed these plans) only referred me back to LJA.
Below are the drainage plans for Artavia, obtained by a Freedom of Information Act request to Montgomery County.
Several things have jumped out at me so far. LJA has not yet returned phone calls, so to me they remain…
Unaddressed Issues
Elevation Change Accelerates Flow
Elevation drops suddenly as you get near the river – 12 feet. That accelerates waterflow and threatens the sand mine. As you can see above and below, the channel is like a firehose aimed at the mine. That mine has enough problems of its own. In the past, dike breaches have affected Lake Houston water quality; we don’t need more of that. The mine blames the breaches on water overflowing from the Artavia ditch.
Note how the water in this short section of Artavia’s drainage ditch does not even pond at one end and reaches halfway up the banks at the other. That shows the slope. The SJR West Fork is between the two sections of the mine in background.
Flow Rates Understated
LJA calculations appear to understate the volume and velocity of flow. They use a Manning’s coefficient of .035, a value associated with pasture/farmland or channels filled with stones and cobbles. The coefficient recommended for smooth channels is 0.022. The difference creates a 63% increase in velocity and a 60% increase in volume of flow.See for yourself. With no real way yet for the water to get to the river or under FM1314, that will cause water to pile up much faster.
Not too many cobbles and boulders in this channel.All sand and siltwhich is already blocking culverts.
LJA also uses pre-Atlas rainfall statistics in their calculations of 10-, 25- and 100-year peak flows. The new Montgomery County standard is 16.1 inches in 24 hours compared to the 12.17 that LJA used for the 24 hour, 100-year flood.
Did LJA use “good engineering practices” and model Atlas 14 to ensure that it actually contained the 100-yr, 24-hr storm? There’s an ethical issue here. Did they put public safety first? We don’t know because they didn’t say so in any of their documents.
No Mention of Wetlands
LJA never mentions wetlands in their analysis. However, the National Wetlands Inventory shows wetlands on Artavia property and other property Artavia drains through.
Wetlands on Artavia Property or property Artavia drainage would likely have to go through.
Threat to Pipeline
A pipeline crosses the Liberty Materials mine. High velocity flow through the mine could undermine and threaten that pipeline like it did at another Liberty mine and at the Triple PG mine on the East Fork.
Green line shows path of pipeline across across Liberty Materials Mine. White line shows current path of drainage ditch.
No Outlet
There’s no explanation for how Artavia will get water through the pit at the end of their ditch. They can not store Artavia’s runoff in the pit. Their pit is already filled to the brim with highly silty, turbid water. Another unauthorized discharge could affect water quality in Lake Houston...again!
Level of water in the pit that Artavia’s ditch would have to drain through. Pit is already overflowing. West Fork is in background.TCEQ measured suspended solids in pit’s water at 25X higher than river.
Threat to Mine
A representative for the mine owner says the mine owner doesn’t want more water in the pit. They can’t afford the cost from environmental or business perspectives. With the COVID-19 threat, construction activity is way down. So margins are slim. And they can’t afford to have water fill their deep pit where they dry mine.
“No Adverse Impact”
LJA claims the project will have no adverse impact on downstream properties. But it already has. Properties along Greenbaugh and in Oak Tree have flooded since Artavia started clearing land and filling in wetlands.
Oak Tree detention pond (behind camera) used to overflow into wetlands. Then Artavia started clearing and filling. Now water backs up into the 40+ homes in the small subdivision.
The Liberty Materials mine also alleges it was flooded by Artavia’s overflow, resulting in the discharge of 56 million gallons of silty water into the West Fork.
LJA can only convey 68 cfs under FM1314. Meanwhile, TxDoT has not yet finished the design for a bridge. They hope to start bidding the job by the Fall of this year. Residents, not the developer, will pay for the improvement through the local municipal utility district.
Artavia ditch on north side of FM1314Where water exits on the downstream side of FM1314Channel downstream/south of FM1314.
LJA claims “The culvert crossings were designed to have capacity to convey 100-year storm events.” But they certainly aren’t doing that now.
Diverting Water From East to West Fork
The developer appears to be diverting water from the East Fork watershed to the West Fork watershed. See Section 1.4 and Exhibit One.
It would be harder to “beat the peak” to the East Fork. It’s 12 times farther away; water would take much longer to get there. So the diversion appears to be an attempt to avoid building detention ponds. But the diversion adds to flood volume in heavily populated West Fork areas where far more homes flooded during Hurricane Harvey.
Will LJA Figure It Out In Time?
For the sake of adjacent residents and businesses, let’s hope they figure these loose ends out before the next flood.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/20200306-RJR_9170.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-03-20 20:48:012020-03-20 23:58:19The MoCo/LJA Way: Build First; Work Out Drainage Details Later