Had Harris County Flood Control not recently excavated parts of Bens Branch and Taylor Gully, both streams would have likely come out of their banks today. The skies opened up and dumped 4.98 inches on my rain gage in a little more than two hours. That’s about a 10-year rain according to the new Atlas 14 statistics below.
Atlas 14 Rainfall Statistics for the Kingwood Area.
Photos from Around Kingwood
At 5 pm both streams were near the tops of their banks but well within them. That might not have been the case just a couple months ago before the flood control district widened and deepened them to restore their original conveyance. Parts of Ben’s Branch were down to a two year level of service. That’s means they would flood in a two-year rain…obviously less than today’s.
Bens Branch at Kingwood Drive at approximately 5pm on 5/17/2021after receiving 4.88 inches of rain in about 2 hours.
Taylor Gully at approximately same time taken from the Maple Bend Bridge in Woodstream Forest. Photo by Nicole Black-Rudolph. Finished in the nick of time. Note the construction equipment still in the right corner of the frame.
Photo by Jeff Miller around same time. This shows Taylor Gully at the bridge over Rustic Elms, farther upstream toward Woodridge Village.
Video by Paul Campbell at approximately 3pm on 5/17/21. Shows the level of Ben’s Branch behind his apartment in Kingwood Town Center, also recently excavated by HCFCD.
Street flooding on West Lake Houston Parkway near Kingwood Drive at 5pm. I saw scenes like this all over Kingwood this afternoon while trying to return from a lunch in the Woodlands.
Forecast for Remainder of Evening
As of 5:30 pm, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist said, “Heavy rainfall continues to progress WSW across the area while a second area of heavy rainfall is moving SE across western Montgomery, N Waller, and NW Harris County. This area to the northwest is the remains of a line of thunderstorms from central Texas.”
“Rainfall amounts have averaged 2-3 inches over the northern half of Harris County with 4-6 inches over the Humble, Kingwood, Crosby, and Huffman areas,” said Lindner. “Significant street flooding has occurred over the northeast and northern portions of the county into Liberty and Montgomery Counties. While the activity is continuing to progress through the area, recent radar and HCFCD gage rainfall sensors indicate the hourly rainfall rates have weakened into the .50-1.5 inch range which is significantly lower than the 3-4 inches per hour recorded earlier this afternoon.”
“Street flooding will continue into the early evening hours and slowly subside over the area, while creeks and bayous continue to respond to the heavy rainfall. At this time all creeks and bayous are well within banks.”
More Yet to Come
Heavy rainfalls like this afternoon’s should continue through Thursday when the chances start to diminish through the weekend. Runoff should increase as grounds are now thoroughly saturated. Stay cautious. I almost drove into the water that rose to the bumper of that semi above. It didn’t look that deep but obviously could have stalled my Tahoe. Remember, if water gets over your tailpipe, it will cause your engine to stall. Game over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on May 17, 2021 based on personal observation and information supplied by HCFCD, Jeff Miller, Paul Campbell, and Nicole Black-Rudolph
1357 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210517-RJR_6615.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2021-05-17 18:05:152021-05-17 18:10:21Street Flooding Rampant Throughout Kingwood, Streams Near Capacity
The National Weather Service has produced a 3-day excessive rainfall map that show all of SE Texas under a moderate risk for flash flooding this week. “Moderate” means we have a 20-50% chance of exceeding flash-flooding guidance. Flash flooding occurs when short-duration, high-intensity rains exceed the drainage capacity in areas.
Issued Monday at 3AM Houston time by the National Weather Service.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, sees heavy rainfall and flash flood threats increasing through the week. “A flash flood watch will likely be required for portions of the area later today,” he said.
Chance of Thunderstorms 70% and Increasing
The National Weather Service predicts a 70% chance of thunderstorms for the Lake Houston Area through Tuesday night. The chance increases to 80% for Wednesday and Thurday. The chances decrease to 70% for Friday, 60% for Saturday and 40% for Sunday.
It is difficult to predict exact amounts of rainfall for any specific location, such as Lake Houston, that far in advance. However, conditions are in place to produce heavy rainfall. The main threat for today is slow moving storms that could produce street flooding this afternoon. But chances increase tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday.
“This pattern will support heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially during the mid-week period. But really every day this week has potential,” says Lindner.
Space City Weather likens the conditions in place to those that produced the May 2019 floods in Kingwood.
Rainfall Amounts
Since yesterday, there has been no change. Models suggest a fairly high limit on potential totals. “As seen yesterday, this air mass is capable of excessive short term rainfall amounts. Widespread amounts of 4-8 inches will be likely over much of the area over the next 5 days with isolated totals of 10-12 inches or more. Short duration rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible leading to rapid urban flash flooding,” says Lindner.
Grounds in the Houston area are already wet and water supply lakes near full capacity. As of this morning, the City has started lowering Lake Houston by one foot. The SJRA is not releasing water from Lake Conroe.
From SJRA.net as of Monday 5/17/21 at 9am.
Lindner says that rises on area watersheds are likely given the widespread nature of this event. “It is certainly possible some watersheds will experience flooding at some point this week. Which watersheds potentially get hit the hardest remains uncertain…but the risk for flooding will be increasing,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on Monday morning at 9 am, 5/17/21 based on information by HCFCD, NWS, and Space City Weather
1357 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/image002.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-05-17 09:16:192021-05-17 09:16:28Monday AM: All SE Texas Now Under Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding This Week
Rain is winding down for today, but areas southwest of Houston along US59 received massive amounts today. Ganado in Wharton County reported 13.47 inches at one gage and 10.87 inches at another. Radar totals indicated 10-14 inches…much of that falling in a 4-6 hour period. According to Atlas 14, that’s a 100- to 200-year rain.
Atlas 14 Rainfall Frequency Chart for this area.
A Portent of Rainfall to Come
“This shows the capability of the air mass we will be dealing with nearly all week,” said Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect additional “big totals” over parts of the area through the week.”
Ganado is on US 59 between Victoria and El Campo in Wharton County, southwest of Houston.
Heaviest Rains Spreading Toward Houston Later This Week
The threat of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue for the next several days and spread northeast into the Houston area. The threat of flooding and flash flooding will increase during that time, according to Lindner’s Sunday afternoon update.
Lindner predicts that we should get a break tonight, but another wave approaches on Monday late morning into the afternoon. Expect another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. “We will likely see another break on Monday night and then additional showers and storms on Tuesday,” he says.
Wednesday-Thursday
Lindner is most concerned about Wednesday into Thursday. Another tropical air mass from the Bay of Campeche will surge into our area. Upper level winds will help lift the surface moisture into thunderstorms. Training of storms from SSW to NNE looks increasingly likely. “Potential formation of a coastal trough or weak surface low near the lower Texas coast will only help to further promote rainfall.” Given the fact that we’re still talking about forecasts three or four days out, Lindner doesn’t want to get too aggressive with rainfall total predictions just yet. But he says that models show an overall pattern favoring heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall Amounts
Additional rainfall amounts on top of what has already fallen will average 4-8 inches over the region with isolated totals of 10-15 inches certainly possible. The expected widespread nature of the rainfall along with potential high hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches support rapid onset flash flooding and rises on area watersheds especially our river system as rainfall totals pile up over time. Creeks and bayous in urban areas will tend to respond to the short duration higher rainfall rates and will need to be monitored closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021at 6PM based on information from NWS, HCFCD, and Space City Weather.
1356 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/NOAA-Atlas-14-Rainfall-Rates-for-Kingwood.png?fit=976%2C828&ssl=1828976adminadmin2021-05-16 18:16:302021-05-16 18:16:33Wharton County Receives 13.47 Inches So Far Today
Street Flooding Rampant Throughout Kingwood, Streams Near Capacity
Had Harris County Flood Control not recently excavated parts of Bens Branch and Taylor Gully, both streams would have likely come out of their banks today. The skies opened up and dumped 4.98 inches on my rain gage in a little more than two hours. That’s about a 10-year rain according to the new Atlas 14 statistics below.
Photos from Around Kingwood
At 5 pm both streams were near the tops of their banks but well within them. That might not have been the case just a couple months ago before the flood control district widened and deepened them to restore their original conveyance. Parts of Ben’s Branch were down to a two year level of service. That’s means they would flood in a two-year rain…obviously less than today’s.
Forecast for Remainder of Evening
As of 5:30 pm, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist said, “Heavy rainfall continues to progress WSW across the area while a second area of heavy rainfall is moving SE across western Montgomery, N Waller, and NW Harris County. This area to the northwest is the remains of a line of thunderstorms from central Texas.”
“Rainfall amounts have averaged 2-3 inches over the northern half of Harris County with 4-6 inches over the Humble, Kingwood, Crosby, and Huffman areas,” said Lindner. “Significant street flooding has occurred over the northeast and northern portions of the county into Liberty and Montgomery Counties. While the activity is continuing to progress through the area, recent radar and HCFCD gage rainfall sensors indicate the hourly rainfall rates have weakened into the .50-1.5 inch range which is significantly lower than the 3-4 inches per hour recorded earlier this afternoon.”
“Street flooding will continue into the early evening hours and slowly subside over the area, while creeks and bayous continue to respond to the heavy rainfall. At this time all creeks and bayous are well within banks.”
More Yet to Come
Heavy rainfalls like this afternoon’s should continue through Thursday when the chances start to diminish through the weekend. Runoff should increase as grounds are now thoroughly saturated. Stay cautious. I almost drove into the water that rose to the bumper of that semi above. It didn’t look that deep but obviously could have stalled my Tahoe. Remember, if water gets over your tailpipe, it will cause your engine to stall. Game over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on May 17, 2021 based on personal observation and information supplied by HCFCD, Jeff Miller, Paul Campbell, and Nicole Black-Rudolph
1357 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Monday AM: All SE Texas Now Under Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding This Week
The National Weather Service has produced a 3-day excessive rainfall map that show all of SE Texas under a moderate risk for flash flooding this week. “Moderate” means we have a 20-50% chance of exceeding flash-flooding guidance. Flash flooding occurs when short-duration, high-intensity rains exceed the drainage capacity in areas.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, sees heavy rainfall and flash flood threats increasing through the week. “A flash flood watch will likely be required for portions of the area later today,” he said.
Chance of Thunderstorms 70% and Increasing
The National Weather Service predicts a 70% chance of thunderstorms for the Lake Houston Area through Tuesday night. The chance increases to 80% for Wednesday and Thurday. The chances decrease to 70% for Friday, 60% for Saturday and 40% for Sunday.
It is difficult to predict exact amounts of rainfall for any specific location, such as Lake Houston, that far in advance. However, conditions are in place to produce heavy rainfall. The main threat for today is slow moving storms that could produce street flooding this afternoon. But chances increase tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday.
“This pattern will support heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially during the mid-week period. But really every day this week has potential,” says Lindner.
Space City Weather likens the conditions in place to those that produced the May 2019 floods in Kingwood.
Rainfall Amounts
Since yesterday, there has been no change. Models suggest a fairly high limit on potential totals. “As seen yesterday, this air mass is capable of excessive short term rainfall amounts. Widespread amounts of 4-8 inches will be likely over much of the area over the next 5 days with isolated totals of 10-12 inches or more. Short duration rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible leading to rapid urban flash flooding,” says Lindner.
Grounds in the Houston area are already wet and water supply lakes near full capacity. As of this morning, the City has started lowering Lake Houston by one foot. The SJRA is not releasing water from Lake Conroe.
Lindner says that rises on area watersheds are likely given the widespread nature of this event. “It is certainly possible some watersheds will experience flooding at some point this week. Which watersheds potentially get hit the hardest remains uncertain…but the risk for flooding will be increasing,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on Monday morning at 9 am, 5/17/21 based on information by HCFCD, NWS, and Space City Weather
1357 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Wharton County Receives 13.47 Inches So Far Today
Rain is winding down for today, but areas southwest of Houston along US59 received massive amounts today. Ganado in Wharton County reported 13.47 inches at one gage and 10.87 inches at another. Radar totals indicated 10-14 inches…much of that falling in a 4-6 hour period. According to Atlas 14, that’s a 100- to 200-year rain.
A Portent of Rainfall to Come
“This shows the capability of the air mass we will be dealing with nearly all week,” said Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect additional “big totals” over parts of the area through the week.”
Ganado is on US 59 between Victoria and El Campo in Wharton County, southwest of Houston.
Heaviest Rains Spreading Toward Houston Later This Week
The threat of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue for the next several days and spread northeast into the Houston area. The threat of flooding and flash flooding will increase during that time, according to Lindner’s Sunday afternoon update.
Lindner predicts that we should get a break tonight, but another wave approaches on Monday late morning into the afternoon. Expect another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. “We will likely see another break on Monday night and then additional showers and storms on Tuesday,” he says.
Wednesday-Thursday
Lindner is most concerned about Wednesday into Thursday. Another tropical air mass from the Bay of Campeche will surge into our area. Upper level winds will help lift the surface moisture into thunderstorms. Training of storms from SSW to NNE looks increasingly likely. “Potential formation of a coastal trough or weak surface low near the lower Texas coast will only help to further promote rainfall.” Given the fact that we’re still talking about forecasts three or four days out, Lindner doesn’t want to get too aggressive with rainfall total predictions just yet. But he says that models show an overall pattern favoring heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall Amounts
Additional rainfall amounts on top of what has already fallen will average 4-8 inches over the region with isolated totals of 10-15 inches certainly possible. The expected widespread nature of the rainfall along with potential high hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches support rapid onset flash flooding and rises on area watersheds especially our river system as rainfall totals pile up over time. Creeks and bayous in urban areas will tend to respond to the short duration higher rainfall rates and will need to be monitored closely.
Make sure you bookmark this page and consult it frequently throughout the week: Harris County Flood Warning System.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021 at 6PM based on information from NWS, HCFCD, and Space City Weather.
1356 Days since Hurricane Harvey