In its 5 a.m. Thursday update of the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical depression 5 to Tropical Storm Elsa.
Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.
Notice the beginning of an eye in Elsa at the 5 o’clock position and slight rotation.
Eastern Gulf Probabilities
At 5 a.m. Thursday 7/1/2021, forecasters believe that the eastern Gulf has up to a 30% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds by late this week or early next.
The tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight. Convective banding features are becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is 35 knots, making the cyclone a tropical storm.
The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 22 knots. A strong subtropical ridge should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. However, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5.
Disagreement Among Models, High Uncertainty
The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one last night. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.
Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity.
However, potential interaction of Elsa with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative.
Key Messages
Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.
Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system’s progress and updates to the forecast.
Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
There is no forecast threat to the Houston area. Just beware in case you are traveling in the Caribbean or to Florida this week or next.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6am on 7/1/2021 based on NHC information
At 10 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted an update on the two areas of disturbed weather that were approaching the windward islands this morning. One has already crossed the islands and has been downgraded. The NHC now gives it a 0% chance of tropical development. However, NHC upgraded the other storm system and gave it a number – Tropical Depression 5. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. They also issued a tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guadaloupe.
The warning means that they expect tropical storm conditions in the next 36 hours. But a warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Happy Fourth of July, Florida
At this point, however, it appears the storm will track toward Florida. The earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds: Sunday evening.
But the probability of that is less than 20% as of tonight.
Rescue Efforts in Condo Collapse Could be Affected
If the storm follows the predicted path, it will put Surfside, Florida on the dirty side of the storm, complicating rescue efforts in the condo collapse. However, NHC hastens to add that track questions exist given the high degree of uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
Pray for the rescuers and anyone who may still be alive in the rubble.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2021 at 11PM based on information from the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/025646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-06-30 22:53:232021-06-30 22:53:27One Storm Upgraded, Second Downgraded
A strong tropical wave located midday between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to show increasing signs of organization. The red area below has an 80% chance of tropical formation in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 a.m. this morning.
Red storm has 80% chance of tropical formation as of 8 am, June 30, 2021 according to National Hurricane Center.
Storm Farthest East Represents Biggest Threat
Convection has increased near a developing low-level, low-pressure system designated 97L for the moment. 97L has a large moisture envelop and conditions generally favor development as it moves westward.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist and the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression will likely form in the next few days. It may also turn into a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands. They expect continued W to WNW motion bringing the system into and through the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
Models Diverge on Direction After Storm Enters Caribbean
It’s too early to tell where it goes after that. Some models suggest the system will turn WNW and NW while others maintain a more westward track. “There is reasonable support for both,” says Lindner.
Lindner emphasizes that it is early for tropical cyclones to form in this region of the Atlantic. While 97L may become a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands, once it gets past them, it may encounter slightly less favorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
While there is no significant threat to SE TX at this time, you should monitor 97L daily.
Nearest Storm Poses Less Threat
The yellow area is a second, separate area being monitored by the NHC. It is moving quickly WNW at 20 to 25 mph and will enter the Caribbean later today. However, it is producing only disorganized showers and thunderstorms so far and diverging trade winds may tear it apart. The NHC only gives it a 10% chance of tropical formation. So while it will bring heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antilles, it poses little danger to Houston.
For the latest information, the NHC updates storm tracks every 12 hours during the hurricane season and even more frequently if storms approach the U.S. mainland.
Posted by Bob Rehak based on information from HCFCD and the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days after Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2021-06-30 11:48:382021-06-30 11:49:41Two Systems Approaching Caribbean
Tropical Depression 5 Becomes Tropical Storm Elsa Overnight
In its 5 a.m. Thursday update of the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical depression 5 to Tropical Storm Elsa.
Eastern Gulf Probabilities
The tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight. Convective banding features are becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is 35 knots, making the cyclone a tropical storm.
The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 22 knots. A strong subtropical ridge should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. However, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5.
Disagreement Among Models, High Uncertainty
The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one last night. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.
Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity.
However, potential interaction of Elsa with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative.
Key Messages
There is no forecast threat to the Houston area. Just beware in case you are traveling in the Caribbean or to Florida this week or next.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6am on 7/1/2021 based on NHC information
1402 Days since Hurricane Harvey
One Storm Upgraded, Second Downgraded
At 10 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted an update on the two areas of disturbed weather that were approaching the windward islands this morning. One has already crossed the islands and has been downgraded. The NHC now gives it a 0% chance of tropical development. However, NHC upgraded the other storm system and gave it a number – Tropical Depression 5. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. They also issued a tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guadaloupe.
The warning means that they expect tropical storm conditions in the next 36 hours. But a warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Happy Fourth of July, Florida
At this point, however, it appears the storm will track toward Florida. The earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds: Sunday evening.
But the probability of that is less than 20% as of tonight.
Rescue Efforts in Condo Collapse Could be Affected
If the storm follows the predicted path, it will put Surfside, Florida on the dirty side of the storm, complicating rescue efforts in the condo collapse. However, NHC hastens to add that track questions exist given the high degree of uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
Pray for the rescuers and anyone who may still be alive in the rubble.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2021 at 11PM based on information from the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Two Systems Approaching Caribbean
A strong tropical wave located midday between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to show increasing signs of organization. The red area below has an 80% chance of tropical formation in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 a.m. this morning.
Storm Farthest East Represents Biggest Threat
Convection has increased near a developing low-level, low-pressure system designated 97L for the moment. 97L has a large moisture envelop and conditions generally favor development as it moves westward.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist and the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression will likely form in the next few days. It may also turn into a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands. They expect continued W to WNW motion bringing the system into and through the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
Models Diverge on Direction After Storm Enters Caribbean
It’s too early to tell where it goes after that. Some models suggest the system will turn WNW and NW while others maintain a more westward track. “There is reasonable support for both,” says Lindner.
Lindner emphasizes that it is early for tropical cyclones to form in this region of the Atlantic. While 97L may become a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands, once it gets past them, it may encounter slightly less favorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
While there is no significant threat to SE TX at this time, you should monitor 97L daily.
Nearest Storm Poses Less Threat
The yellow area is a second, separate area being monitored by the NHC. It is moving quickly WNW at 20 to 25 mph and will enter the Caribbean later today. However, it is producing only disorganized showers and thunderstorms so far and diverging trade winds may tear it apart. The NHC only gives it a 10% chance of tropical formation. So while it will bring heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antilles, it poses little danger to Houston.
For the latest information, the NHC updates storm tracks every 12 hours during the hurricane season and even more frequently if storms approach the U.S. mainland.
Posted by Bob Rehak based on information from HCFCD and the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days after Hurricane Harvey