Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist is predicting a wet week ahead for southeast Texas with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. He also predicts flooding and flash flood threats that will increase throughout the week.
National Weather Service 5-Day forecasted rainfall amounts as of Sunday morning.
Says Lindner, “A short wave is approaching the area this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area and continue through the day. Storms have already anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for that area and this will be the story this week.”
An upper level storm system over the southwest will eject several disturbances across Texas this week, according to Lindner. These disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Humidity levels throughout the Houston region range from 70% to above 90%.
Given the feed of moisture, the potential for slow moving and training storms, and high moisture levels, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect Heavy Rain Through End of Week
Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week. While it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds. Grounds will saturate and run-off will increase during the wet week ahead.
Today’s concern: slow storm motions currently being seen southwest of the city. Such storm motions and rainfall rates over urban areas could quickly lead to street flooding.
Main concern: Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper-level storm will move into Texas. Southeast Texas will develop very favorable conditions for rainfall. A steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft will support training of lines and clusters of thunderstorms. However…
…There could be flooding and heavy rainfall at nearly any time from today through Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner thinks rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible under stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern. Get out the galoshes. It’s going to be a wet week ahead.
Lake Report
At this hour, Lake Conroe is not releasing water and the lake is at its normal level of 201 feet above sea level.
This could get interesting. Lake Conroe is full and if you look closely at the rainfall map above, you will see that the NWS is predicting some of the heaviest rainfall for our area to be upstream from Lake Conroe.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021
1356 Days since Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/image001.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-05-16 09:56:152021-05-16 18:15:58Wet Week Coming: 4-6 Inches Likely for Region, 8-10 Possible
Even though sand can be found in nearly every single country on Earth, the world could soon face a shortage. Usage around the world has tripled in the last twenty years, according to the United Nations Environment Program. That’s far greater than the rate at which sand is being replenished.
After water, sand is the second most used commodity on earth. It’s used in concrete, glass, computer chips, computer screens, tile, and more. When you look at deserts and oceans, you may think we have an infinite supply. But we don’t. According to this ten-minute video produced by CNBC, we’re using it faster than Mother Nature is creating it.
Seems Infinite But Isn’t
And not all types of sand are suited for all uses. Desert sand, for instance, is windblown and round. That makes it unsuitable for concrete. For strength, concrete requires the more angular type found near and in rivers.
One small part of the massive Hallett sand mine on the San Jacinto West Fork
A Short Course on Sand
If you want to understand more, I highly recommend this video produced by CNBC. It’s short – only about 10 minutes. But it’s packed with information that puts production, consumption, and environmental tradeoffs in perspective.
For instance, do you know how the “tragedy of the commons” can ultimately lead to the collapse of environments?
The video is filled with facts and answers that you can use to amaze friends and family.
Did you know that China used more sand in the last three years than the US did in the last century?
How much sand does it take to produce concrete?
Where will it come from in the future?
What impact will the massive infrastructure bill now pending in Congress have on sand production and therefore the environment?
This video will answer all those questions and more. I highly recommend it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/2021based on a tip from Chris Manthei
1354 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Screen-Shot-2021-05-14-at-10.02.51-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=16791200adminadmin2021-05-14 23:15:032021-05-14 23:32:58Where Will Tomorrow’s Sand Come From?
Could you design a neighborhood center with the resources people need in floods and other emergencies? Could you develop a plan to implement a network of them throughout the City of Houston? If so, then maybe this is for you. The City seeks vendors to help it develop a network of “lily pads” that can act as refuges during emergencies.
Seniors at Kingwood Village Estates trying to evacuate to higher ground during Harvey when floodwaters rose in the middle of the night. Twelve people died: six from injuries sustained during evacuation and six from the heartbreak of seeing their condos destroyed.
Preparing for Emergencies
The City’s first resilience effort was somewhat of a utopian effort. It focused on helping people thrive after floods, not eliminating flooding. This one looks to gain more traction. It will take survival planning down to the neighborhood level and help people dislocated during adverse events such as Hurricane Harvey.
During Harvey, churches, schools, libraries, and businesses became gathering centers. However, many of these spaces were not equipped to serve as temporary shelters. The City seeks to identify and develop a network of unflooded spaces that can become locations for individuals to obtain basic needs, assistance, and recovery resources during floods, heat events, or air quality emergencies. They will become “lilly pads” that help the City distribute food and emergency supplies, telecommunications access, and federal assistance guidance. These spaces will also become gathering centers for the dissemination of relief and recovery for individuals.
Citizen Led, Government Supported
Instead of being led by local government, lily pads are intended to be supported by local government. Community members, community-based organizations, and/or faith-based groups will lead and manage them.
The City hopes such lily pads will help prepare for future disruptions and disasters. The request for proposals states, “For Houston to become more resilient, we must be able to adapt to future risks from chronic stresses such as addressing environmental justice issues and acute shocks including: extreme heat, poor air quality, flooding, hurricanes, and public health emergencies.”
Emphasis on Social Vulnerability
The selection of the strategic location and design elements of each Lily Pad will include social vulnerability and “equity.” The City intends to use these criteria to ensure locations benefit the most vulnerable and disproportionately affected populations. Social vulnerability and equity will also be taken into consideration when developing the lily pad master plan, toolkit and pilot project.
If you work for a company that does this sort of planning, consider responding to the RFP. It certainly sounds like a worthwhile effort as far as it goes. Personally, though, I think anyone rescued half naked from 20 mph floodwaters in the middle of the night deserves help.
Wet Week Coming: 4-6 Inches Likely for Region, 8-10 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist is predicting a wet week ahead for southeast Texas with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. He also predicts flooding and flash flood threats that will increase throughout the week.
Upper Level Disturbances Meet Tropical Moisture Inflow
Says Lindner, “A short wave is approaching the area this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area and continue through the day. Storms have already anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for that area and this will be the story this week.”
An upper level storm system over the southwest will eject several disturbances across Texas this week, according to Lindner. These disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Humidity levels throughout the Houston region range from 70% to above 90%.
Expect Heavy Rain Through End of Week
Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week. While it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds. Grounds will saturate and run-off will increase during the wet week ahead.
Today’s concern: slow storm motions currently being seen southwest of the city. Such storm motions and rainfall rates over urban areas could quickly lead to street flooding.
Main concern: Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper-level storm will move into Texas. Southeast Texas will develop very favorable conditions for rainfall. A steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft will support training of lines and clusters of thunderstorms. However…
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner thinks rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible under stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern. Get out the galoshes. It’s going to be a wet week ahead.
Lake Report
At this hour, Lake Conroe is not releasing water and the lake is at its normal level of 201 feet above sea level.
This could get interesting. Lake Conroe is full and if you look closely at the rainfall map above, you will see that the NWS is predicting some of the heaviest rainfall for our area to be upstream from Lake Conroe.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021
1356 Days since Harvey
Where Will Tomorrow’s Sand Come From?
Even though sand can be found in nearly every single country on Earth, the world could soon face a shortage. Usage around the world has tripled in the last twenty years, according to the United Nations Environment Program. That’s far greater than the rate at which sand is being replenished.
After water, sand is the second most used commodity on earth. It’s used in concrete, glass, computer chips, computer screens, tile, and more. When you look at deserts and oceans, you may think we have an infinite supply. But we don’t. According to this ten-minute video produced by CNBC, we’re using it faster than Mother Nature is creating it.
Seems Infinite But Isn’t
And not all types of sand are suited for all uses. Desert sand, for instance, is windblown and round. That makes it unsuitable for concrete. For strength, concrete requires the more angular type found near and in rivers.
A Short Course on Sand
If you want to understand more, I highly recommend this video produced by CNBC. It’s short – only about 10 minutes. But it’s packed with information that puts production, consumption, and environmental tradeoffs in perspective.
For instance, do you know how the “tragedy of the commons” can ultimately lead to the collapse of environments?
The video is filled with facts and answers that you can use to amaze friends and family.
This video will answer all those questions and more. I highly recommend it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/2021 based on a tip from Chris Manthei
1354 Days after Hurricane Harvey
City of Houston Seeks Proposals for Planning Lily Pads
Could you design a neighborhood center with the resources people need in floods and other emergencies? Could you develop a plan to implement a network of them throughout the City of Houston? If so, then maybe this is for you. The City seeks vendors to help it develop a network of “lily pads” that can act as refuges during emergencies.
Preparing for Emergencies
The City’s first resilience effort was somewhat of a utopian effort. It focused on helping people thrive after floods, not eliminating flooding. This one looks to gain more traction. It will take survival planning down to the neighborhood level and help people dislocated during adverse events such as Hurricane Harvey.
During Harvey, churches, schools, libraries, and businesses became gathering centers. However, many of these spaces were not equipped to serve as temporary shelters. The City seeks to identify and develop a network of unflooded spaces that can become locations for individuals to obtain basic needs, assistance, and recovery resources during floods, heat events, or air quality emergencies. They will become “lilly pads” that help the City distribute food and emergency supplies, telecommunications access, and federal assistance guidance. These spaces will also become gathering centers for the dissemination of relief and recovery for individuals.
Citizen Led, Government Supported
Instead of being led by local government, lily pads are intended to be supported by local government. Community members, community-based organizations, and/or faith-based groups will lead and manage them.
The City hopes such lily pads will help prepare for future disruptions and disasters. The request for proposals states, “For Houston to become more resilient, we must be able to adapt to future risks from chronic stresses such as addressing environmental justice issues and acute shocks including: extreme heat, poor air quality, flooding, hurricanes, and public health emergencies.”
Emphasis on Social Vulnerability
The selection of the strategic location and design elements of each Lily Pad will include social vulnerability and “equity.” The City intends to use these criteria to ensure locations benefit the most vulnerable and disproportionately affected populations. Social vulnerability and equity will also be taken into consideration when developing the lily pad master plan, toolkit and pilot project.
If you work for a company that does this sort of planning, consider responding to the RFP. It certainly sounds like a worthwhile effort as far as it goes. Personally, though, I think anyone rescued half naked from 20 mph floodwaters in the middle of the night deserves help.
You can find additional documents here on the City’s bid website. The City will hold a pre-proposal bid conference on May 26. The bid deadline is June 10.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/13/2021 with thanks to Carla Alvarez for the heads up
1353 Days since Hurricane Harvey