Today, the Lake Houston Area may finally get a breather from non-stop storms that blanketed the area for the previous three days. That doesn’t mean that we won’t get more rain. And it doesn’t mean flooding is not possible. It just means streams and bayous may get a chance to drain.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.”
RadarScope Pro as of 10:54AM Houston time shows a large complex of storms to Houston’s south and west. They are moving north but have been dissipating as they move past the I-10 corridor for most of the morning.
Says Lindner, “A complex of thunderstorms is moving well into the NW Gulf. Another moving offshore of south Texas will likely keep southeast Texas stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and those will mainly focus south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area. However, the activity looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.”
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 48 hours with the higher totals likely focused south of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall In This Event Almost Half of Year’s Total So Far
My digital rain gage indicates that we’ve received almost as much rain in the last three and a half days as we have year to date. That’s 138 days.
Here’s a breakdown:
Year to date: 23.64 inches
March: 1.95 inches
April: 4.01 inches
May to date: 11.38 inches
May 16: 1.22
May 17: 5.57
May 18: 1.64
May 19 so far: 1.22
According to the National Weather Service, the normal cumulative precipitation for May (up to the 19th) is 3.12 inches. And the normal yearly precipitation through today is 16.42 inches. Before this is all over, we could skew those averages a bit. We’ve exceeded the monthly average to date by a factor of two in the last two days!
Two-day rainfall totals for most Harris County gages as of 5/19/2021 at 10AM.
Run-off
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area. Here’s how that is affecting local rivers and streams.
Rivers and Stream
Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County remain elevated and in some cases near bankfull. So do the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Peach Creek at 2090 is flooding.
East Fork at New Caney should experience minor to moderate flooding in next five days.
West Fork at 59 should experience minor flooding in low lying areas by Saturday.
Peach Creek at FM290 is already out of its banks according to the Harris County Flood Warning System.As of 11 am, elevation was 99.1. A ten-year flood at this gage is 99.3.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is at 201.64 feet (normal is 201) at this writing and and releasing 2,665 cubic feet per second. Notice that they no longer have a box for seasonal lowering. They now call that COH (City of Houston) Diversion. It’s not that they have discontinued the seasonal lowering; they’ve just changed the way they account for it, according to Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager. When the Lake is above 201 and water is inbound as it is now, SJRA is allowed to release water without it coming from the City of Houston’s portion.
When the flood threat has passed, if and when the City calls to resume seasonal lowering, the rate will show up in the COH diversion box. SJRA seems to be trying to lay responsibility for any inconvenience to Lake Conroe boaters at the feet of the City of Houston, which has already been dismissed from the Lake Conroe Association lawsuit.
Meanwhile, Lake Houston is up about a quarter foot so far this morning, despite the flood gates being wide open.
As of noon on 5/19/21
How Lake Houston Levels have varied during the last 7 days. Graph shows up to noon on 5/19.
As of this morning, here’s how White Oak Creek looks from the back yard of Woodstream Forest resident.
Photo from a video courtesy of Donald and Kristi Brown. Taken on 5/19/2021.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2021 at Noon based on information from the NWS, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority and SJRA
1359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/White-Oak-Creek-by-Donald-Brown-in-Woodstream.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=16761200adminadmin2021-05-19 12:39:192021-05-19 15:12:11A Breather: Rain Mainly South of I-10 For Most of Day
Update: The tornado watch mentioned below turned into a tornado warning at 9:15 pm when radar spotted rotation in storms on the west side of Houston. with hail as large as 1.75 inches.
On Monday afternoon, May 17, Kingwood received approximately 5.5 inches of rain. It fell at the rate of more than an inch in 15 minutes at one point. The downpour flooded streets and Ben’s Branch near the St. Martha School on Woodland Hills came out of its banks. Luckily, no buildings flooded, but these pictures show how close the water came. The video and all photos below were taken by John Sedlak as the rain ended.
Frustration shows on the face of staffers as they watch floodwaters race across the parking lot and near their steps.View of main parking lot of St. Martha School. Bens Branch is in background.
At the Woodland Hills Bridge, Bens Branch briefly came out of its banks and threatened Kids in Action also.
At this point on Ben’s Branch, the man-made channel transitions to a natural one. Backups usually occur where that happens.
Compare this picture of the statue of Jesus taken yesterday with the one taken during Imelda below.
St. Martha School during Imelda on 9/19/2021
During Imelda, water DID get in the school. The damage took months to repair. As part of that process, the school “flood proofed itself.” Luckily that wasn’t needed yesterday.
Weather Tonight, Tomorrow Includes Tornado Watch Till 2 a.m
As I write this, my cell phone is blowing up with weather warnings, including a tornado watch. And I can hear distant claps of thunder.
Another line of thunderstorms is moving from the southwest to northeast, but also sliding toward the Lake Houston Area at the same time.
Image from KHGX radar taken from RadarScope Pro, an amazing app to increase situational awareness in extreme events.It provides coverage of most radars in North America.
A tornado watch (#190) has been issued for most of the area until 2 a.m.
Flash flood watch expires Thursday morning.
Watch for rises on the East Fork of the San Jacinto and the Trinity.
In Harris County, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek remain high and will need to be watched if heavy rain develops.
Releases from area reservoirs such as Lake Conroe will play a role in streamflow and water levels
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Protective Actions for Tornadoes
Be Prepared. Have a safe room available and be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area or if you suspect a tornado is near. Bring pets indoors and delay travel until the threat of severe weather has passed.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area:
Get In: Get inside a sturdy structure, find shelter in an interior room, away from windows.
Get Low: Seek shelter on the lowest floor possible, or underground, if possible.
Hold On: Grab on to a sturdy object and hold on.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 at 8:30 p.m. based on information from HCFCD, NWS and Alert Houston
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210518-184661621_215685196779179_8862389311108822822_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2021-05-18 20:22:252021-05-18 21:24:14Close Call for St. Martha School, Kids in Action Yesterday; More Heavy Storms Possible Tonight, Tomorrow
A serious flash flood threat remains in place over all of SE TX and much of eastern TX into Thursday.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “After the storms from yesterday, deeper moisture has been pushed toward the coastline and offshore, but will rapidly return today.
A slow moving line of thunderstorms moved through the area on Monday producing generally 1 to 4 inches of rain across the area with localized areas of 6 to 8 inches in Liberty, eastern Montgomery, and northeastern Harris County.
The National Weather Service says that a lull in the precipitation occurred overnight, but the chance for heavy rainfall returns this morning as an upper level disturbance moves through the area. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Today-Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with heating today. But it continues to be hard to pinpoint where storms may develop. By this afternoon, storms will likely begin to approach southeast Texas from the west and northwest. They may also possibly approach again from the northeast or north into the evening and overnight hours. See the satellite photo below.
Satellite image as of about 8 a.m. Houston time this morning.
Wednesday-Early Thursday
An upper level trough will transport extreme moisture into the region along with the jet stream. Models many possible scenarios from slow moving lines to quickly approaching complexes from the west. Regardless, the overall pattern favors heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather.
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner expects additional rainfall totals of 4-6 inches over the next 48 hours with isolated totals of 10-12 inches. Much of what falls is going to come in short intense bursts of rainfall, he says, and not spread out evenly over time.
The National Weather Service gives our eastern and northern counties a moderate risk of flash flooding today. The risk area should enlarge tomorrow across the entire region.
Excessive rainfall outlook for today
Excessive rainfall outlook for Wednesday and Thursday.
The orange areas indicate moderate risk. That means a 20-50% chance of excessive rainfall.
River, Stream Report
Run-off continues across the region this morning from the heavy rainfall yesterday. Cedar Bayou upstream of US 90 remains high, but has crested and is slowly falling. Spring Creek is rising as upstream run-off from northern Waller County moves into the mainstem of the creek. Not flooding is expected, but the creek will be elevated through the day. West Fork of the San Jacinto River is rising due to inflow from Spring and Cypress Creeks and will crest later this morning.
Both the SJRA and Coastal Water Authority are releasing water from Lake Conroe and Lake Houston preemptively. However, both lakes remain a few inches above their normal levels at the moment.
Additional rainfall over the next few days will quickly run-off resulting in new rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers. Some flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers will be possible.
Forecasted Rainfall Next 72 Hours
Predicted accumulations through Friday. Source: National Weather Service
As I write this, the rain has started already this morning. Let’s hope the rain is spread out enough that the creeks can handle it. As predicted, so far it’s coming down in sporadic bursts mixed with light drizzle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 based on information provided by the NWS, HCFCD, and Donald Brown
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/image009.jpg?fit=662%2C495&ssl=1495662adminadmin2021-05-18 08:56:082021-05-18 09:07:36Tuesday AM Rain Outlook: Heating Up, Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect
A Breather: Rain Mainly South of I-10 For Most of Day
Today, the Lake Houston Area may finally get a breather from non-stop storms that blanketed the area for the previous three days. That doesn’t mean that we won’t get more rain. And it doesn’t mean flooding is not possible. It just means streams and bayous may get a chance to drain.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.”
Says Lindner, “A complex of thunderstorms is moving well into the NW Gulf. Another moving offshore of south Texas will likely keep southeast Texas stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and those will mainly focus south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area. However, the activity looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.”
Rainfall In This Event Almost Half of Year’s Total So Far
My digital rain gage indicates that we’ve received almost as much rain in the last three and a half days as we have year to date. That’s 138 days.
Here’s a breakdown:
According to the National Weather Service, the normal cumulative precipitation for May (up to the 19th) is 3.12 inches. And the normal yearly precipitation through today is 16.42 inches. Before this is all over, we could skew those averages a bit. We’ve exceeded the monthly average to date by a factor of two in the last two days!
Run-off
Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area. Here’s how that is affecting local rivers and streams.
Rivers and Stream
Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County remain elevated and in some cases near bankfull. So do the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Peach Creek at 2090 is flooding.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is at 201.64 feet (normal is 201) at this writing and and releasing 2,665 cubic feet per second. Notice that they no longer have a box for seasonal lowering. They now call that COH (City of Houston) Diversion. It’s not that they have discontinued the seasonal lowering; they’ve just changed the way they account for it, according to Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager. When the Lake is above 201 and water is inbound as it is now, SJRA is allowed to release water without it coming from the City of Houston’s portion.
When the flood threat has passed, if and when the City calls to resume seasonal lowering, the rate will show up in the COH diversion box. SJRA seems to be trying to lay responsibility for any inconvenience to Lake Conroe boaters at the feet of the City of Houston, which has already been dismissed from the Lake Conroe Association lawsuit.
Meanwhile, Lake Houston is up about a quarter foot so far this morning, despite the flood gates being wide open.
If rain during the rest of today remains light, SJRA may be able to avoid flooding people upstream and downstream, just as they did on May 1st, when the areas upstream from Lake Conroe received 8-10 inches of rain.
Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect Through Thursday Morning
In the meantime, a flash flood watch remains in effect for the Houston region through tomorrow morning. Chance of precipitation is 60% this afternoon, going up to 90% this evening. NWS predicts up to 1.25 inches of rain today and up to .75 tomorrow for the Kingwood area.
As of this morning, here’s how White Oak Creek looks from the back yard of Woodstream Forest resident.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2021 at Noon based on information from the NWS, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority and SJRA
1359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Close Call for St. Martha School, Kids in Action Yesterday; More Heavy Storms Possible Tonight, Tomorrow
Update: The tornado watch mentioned below turned into a tornado warning at 9:15 pm when radar spotted rotation in storms on the west side of Houston. with hail as large as 1.75 inches.
On Monday afternoon, May 17, Kingwood received approximately 5.5 inches of rain. It fell at the rate of more than an inch in 15 minutes at one point. The downpour flooded streets and Ben’s Branch near the St. Martha School on Woodland Hills came out of its banks. Luckily, no buildings flooded, but these pictures show how close the water came. The video and all photos below were taken by John Sedlak as the rain ended.
At this point on Ben’s Branch, the man-made channel transitions to a natural one. Backups usually occur where that happens.
During Imelda, water DID get in the school. The damage took months to repair. As part of that process, the school “flood proofed itself.” Luckily that wasn’t needed yesterday.
Weather Tonight, Tomorrow Includes Tornado Watch Till 2 a.m
As I write this, my cell phone is blowing up with weather warnings, including a tornado watch. And I can hear distant claps of thunder.
Another line of thunderstorms is moving from the southwest to northeast, but also sliding toward the Lake Houston Area at the same time.
Here’s the National Weather Service discussion associated with these storms. Highlights:
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Protective Actions for Tornadoes
Be Prepared. Have a safe room available and be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area or if you suspect a tornado is near. Bring pets indoors and delay travel until the threat of severe weather has passed.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 at 8:30 p.m. based on information from HCFCD, NWS and Alert Houston
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tuesday AM Rain Outlook: Heating Up, Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.
A serious flash flood threat remains in place over all of SE TX and much of eastern TX into Thursday.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “After the storms from yesterday, deeper moisture has been pushed toward the coastline and offshore, but will rapidly return today.
A slow moving line of thunderstorms moved through the area on Monday producing generally 1 to 4 inches of rain across the area with localized areas of 6 to 8 inches in Liberty, eastern Montgomery, and northeastern Harris County.
The National Weather Service says that a lull in the precipitation occurred overnight, but the chance for heavy rainfall returns this morning as an upper level disturbance moves through the area. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.
Today-Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with heating today. But it continues to be hard to pinpoint where storms may develop. By this afternoon, storms will likely begin to approach southeast Texas from the west and northwest. They may also possibly approach again from the northeast or north into the evening and overnight hours. See the satellite photo below.
Wednesday-Early Thursday
An upper level trough will transport extreme moisture into the region along with the jet stream. Models many possible scenarios from slow moving lines to quickly approaching complexes from the west. Regardless, the overall pattern favors heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather.
Rainfall Amounts
Lindner expects additional rainfall totals of 4-6 inches over the next 48 hours with isolated totals of 10-12 inches. Much of what falls is going to come in short intense bursts of rainfall, he says, and not spread out evenly over time.
The National Weather Service gives our eastern and northern counties a moderate risk of flash flooding today. The risk area should enlarge tomorrow across the entire region.
The orange areas indicate moderate risk. That means a 20-50% chance of excessive rainfall.
River, Stream Report
Run-off continues across the region this morning from the heavy rainfall yesterday. Cedar Bayou upstream of US 90 remains high, but has crested and is slowly falling. Spring Creek is rising as upstream run-off from northern Waller County moves into the mainstem of the creek. Not flooding is expected, but the creek will be elevated through the day. West Fork of the San Jacinto River is rising due to inflow from Spring and Cypress Creeks and will crest later this morning.
Both the SJRA and Coastal Water Authority are releasing water from Lake Conroe and Lake Houston preemptively. However, both lakes remain a few inches above their normal levels at the moment.
Additional rainfall over the next few days will quickly run-off resulting in new rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers. Some flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers will be possible.
Forecasted Rainfall Next 72 Hours
Photo of White Oak Creek from Yesterday
As I write this, the rain has started already this morning. Let’s hope the rain is spread out enough that the creeks can handle it. As predicted, so far it’s coming down in sporadic bursts mixed with light drizzle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 based on information provided by the NWS, HCFCD, and Donald Brown
1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey