According to the rain gage in my back yard, more than half the rain this year has fallen this month. I recorded:
Year to date = 24.98 inches
Month to date = 12.72 inches
That’s 51%.
If that’s not impressive enough for you, consider this.
11.19 of the 12.72 inches in May fell this week.
Bob’s backyard rain gage
The week isn’t even over for another 15 hours, and it’s still raining.
Street flooding on West Lake Houston Parkway near Kingwood Drive on 5/17/21 after 5.5 inches of rain fell in about 2.5 hours.
This May Compared to 30-Year Average for May
Compare this to the 30-year running average at Bush Intercontinental Airport – 5.09 inches. We’ve already gotten more than twice the average for the month, this week.
May is usually the third wettest month of the year after June (5.93 inches) and October (5.70 inches).
The record for May is 14.39 inches in 1970. That means we’re 1.39 inches short of the record. The NWS predicts another inch may fall today in the Lake Houston Area. And we have another 8 days left in the month with a substantial chance of rain every day through next Wednesday. So this could easily become the new record…at least according to Bob’s backyard gage. (The official one is at the big airport, of course.)
Below are the official stats. They also include norms and extremes for temperature, wind, cloudiness and more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2021 based on information from the National Weather Service
1362 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210517-RJR_6619.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2021-05-22 09:45:552021-05-24 14:43:14More Than Half the Rain This Year Has Fallen in May
At 2 pm this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a Gulf disturbance for the third time in 24 hours. Last night, the formation chance was 20%. This morning, it was 40%. This afternoon, NHC says 60%.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist expects the storm to make landfall sometime tomorrow morning near Matagorda Bay. That would put the Houston region on the dirty part of the storm. However, Lindner believes a tropical storm, if it forms, will be weak. Neither the wind, nor the rain, will likely cause much damage; sustained intensification is unlikely.
Another 1-3 Inches of Rain Likely
Main impact of this Gulf disturbance: rainfall with amounts of 1-3 inches and a few higher isolated totals. “Overall, the dry air wrapping into the system and the overall lack of organization should keep rainfall totals in the manageable range,” said Lindner. “With that said, much of the area will fall on the east side of the center track and we will have to be watchful for any sort of sustained bands that may attempt to setup and train for a period of time which would locally increase the rainfall totals. Creeks and bayous should be able to handle the forecasted rainfall.”
Tides are elevated and will remain elevated into the weekend with water levels near 3-4 feet above normal. At times of high tide, minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Gulf beaches and in the inland bays, but significant coastal flooding is not expected.
Satellite image of Gulf taken at 5:36 Houston time today.
NHC Forecast More Aggressive
According to the NHC, surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low-pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity of this Gulf disturbance remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region, warns the NHC.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021 at 6PM based on information from NASA, NHC, and HCFCD
1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/1000x1000.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2021-05-21 17:58:532021-05-21 18:00:30NHC Upgrades Formation Chance of Gulf Disturbance Again
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has upgraded the chances of tropical formation from 20 percent to 40 percent overnight. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and the flood threat from the storm is minimal.
Overnight, NHC upgraded the chances for tropical development of the disturbance along the Texas Coast from 20% to 40%.
Conditions Marginally Conducive to Tropical Development
NHC says conditions are marginally conducive for development. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight.
NOAA predicts three day rainfall totals for the Houston area to range from 1-3 inches. Note the circular formation in the system.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “There has been very little thunderstorm activity near the feature overnight with dry air wrapping in from the west.”
Lindner cites two forecast models that continue to attempt to close off the system nears the coast. “However, given the appearance this morning, this potential continues to be modest.”
Regardless of any development…impacts will be minimal, says Lindner. High rain chances in the forecast are a function of moisture levels over the central Gulf of Mexico which will be pushed westward over the next 24-36 hours and into southeast Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with heating today and progress NW/WNW across the area.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect heavy rainfall under any areas of training cells. The National Weather Service has the eastern portions of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding today.
However, the scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms should keep rainfall amounts manageable for most – generally in the 1-3 inch range today into Saturday.
If the system over the Gulf develops into a tropical storm or depression near the coast later today or tonight, expect an increase in the potential for thunderstorm training, especially in areas east of Houston.
River and Lake Report
The break most of us had from heavy rains yesterday let many rivers and streams recover. Lake Conroe remains a little more than a half foot above normal and continues releasing water at the rate of 2,665 cubic feet per second.
Lake Conroe level as of 7:30 am on Friday, May 21, 2021
And Lake Houston remains a little more than a foot above normal.
From Coastal Water Authority as of 5/21/2021 at 7:30 am.
Peach Creek at FM2090 is out of its banks but falling.
However, the East Fork at FM2090 and FM1485 is in danger of coming out of its banks.
Overall, the flood threat remains low for most of us with these few exceptions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021, ten days from the official start of hurricane season, based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/image003.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-05-21 08:14:212021-05-21 08:14:25More Rain on Way, but Flood Threat Minimal for Most
More Than Half the Rain This Year Has Fallen in May
According to the rain gage in my back yard, more than half the rain this year has fallen this month. I recorded:
That’s 51%.
If that’s not impressive enough for you, consider this.
The week isn’t even over for another 15 hours, and it’s still raining.
This May Compared to 30-Year Average for May
Compare this to the 30-year running average at Bush Intercontinental Airport – 5.09 inches. We’ve already gotten more than twice the average for the month, this week.
May is usually the third wettest month of the year after June (5.93 inches) and October (5.70 inches).
The record for May is 14.39 inches in 1970. That means we’re 1.39 inches short of the record. The NWS predicts another inch may fall today in the Lake Houston Area. And we have another 8 days left in the month with a substantial chance of rain every day through next Wednesday. So this could easily become the new record…at least according to Bob’s backyard gage. (The official one is at the big airport, of course.)
Below are the official stats. They also include norms and extremes for temperature, wind, cloudiness and more.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2021 based on information from the National Weather Service
1362 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Upgrades Formation Chance of Gulf Disturbance Again
At 2 pm this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a Gulf disturbance for the third time in 24 hours. Last night, the formation chance was 20%. This morning, it was 40%. This afternoon, NHC says 60%.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist expects the storm to make landfall sometime tomorrow morning near Matagorda Bay. That would put the Houston region on the dirty part of the storm. However, Lindner believes a tropical storm, if it forms, will be weak. Neither the wind, nor the rain, will likely cause much damage; sustained intensification is unlikely.
Another 1-3 Inches of Rain Likely
Main impact of this Gulf disturbance: rainfall with amounts of 1-3 inches and a few higher isolated totals. “Overall, the dry air wrapping into the system and the overall lack of organization should keep rainfall totals in the manageable range,” said Lindner. “With that said, much of the area will fall on the east side of the center track and we will have to be watchful for any sort of sustained bands that may attempt to setup and train for a period of time which would locally increase the rainfall totals. Creeks and bayous should be able to handle the forecasted rainfall.”
Tides are elevated and will remain elevated into the weekend with water levels near 3-4 feet above normal. At times of high tide, minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Gulf beaches and in the inland bays, but significant coastal flooding is not expected.
NHC Forecast More Aggressive
According to the NHC, surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low-pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity of this Gulf disturbance remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region, warns the NHC.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021 at 6PM based on information from NASA, NHC, and HCFCD
1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey
More Rain on Way, but Flood Threat Minimal for Most
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has upgraded the chances of tropical formation from 20 percent to 40 percent overnight. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and the flood threat from the storm is minimal.
Conditions Marginally Conducive to Tropical Development
NHC says conditions are marginally conducive for development. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “There has been very little thunderstorm activity near the feature overnight with dry air wrapping in from the west.”
Lindner cites two forecast models that continue to attempt to close off the system nears the coast. “However, given the appearance this morning, this potential continues to be modest.”
Regardless of any development…impacts will be minimal, says Lindner. High rain chances in the forecast are a function of moisture levels over the central Gulf of Mexico which will be pushed westward over the next 24-36 hours and into southeast Texas.
Expect heavy rainfall under any areas of training cells. The National Weather Service has the eastern portions of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding today.
However, the scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms should keep rainfall amounts manageable for most – generally in the 1-3 inch range today into Saturday.
If the system over the Gulf develops into a tropical storm or depression near the coast later today or tonight, expect an increase in the potential for thunderstorm training, especially in areas east of Houston.
River and Lake Report
The break most of us had from heavy rains yesterday let many rivers and streams recover. Lake Conroe remains a little more than a half foot above normal and continues releasing water at the rate of 2,665 cubic feet per second.
And Lake Houston remains a little more than a foot above normal.
Rivers and streams have largely recovered from heavy rains earlier this week. Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows that the San Jacinto West Fork at 59 is falling and within its banks.
Peach Creek at FM2090 is out of its banks but falling.
However, the East Fork at FM2090 and FM1485 is in danger of coming out of its banks.
Overall, the flood threat remains low for most of us with these few exceptions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021, ten days from the official start of hurricane season, based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey