99% Solutions to a 1% Problem Are No Solutions at All

Today, I read a scientific article that talked about 99% solutions to 1% problems. It hit me between the eyes with the force of a freight train. It was written 30 years before Hurricane Harvey for a 1987 symposium sponsored by the U.S. Navy called Sedimentation Control to Reduce Maintenance Dredging of Navigational Facilities in Estuaries.

“SESSION A: SEDIMENT SOURCES AND TRANSPORT PROCESSES”  made months worth of arguments, complaints and frustrating meetings suddenly fall into sharp focus. I quickly realized our problem.

I can’t post the paper here for copyright reasons. So I will link to it and quote brief passages in a review. The author was Ronald J.Gibbs, Center for Colloidal Science, College of Marine Studies, University of Delaware.

His paper begins by looking at the largest rivers in the world and rank ordering them by their discharge (flow) rates. He then talks about factors that influence sedimentation, such as soil types, river gradient, and weather events. 

Rare Weather Plays Mammoth Role in Sedimentation

In case after case, extreme weather played a hugely dominant role in sediment transport. For instance…

…in one storm on the Delaware River, a two day discharge represented three full years of average discharge.

An even more spectacular example: a storm struck the Eel River in California. “In a three day period, the Eel River carried more sediment past Scotia, California than it had during the previous seven years.”

“In ten days, the transport was equivalent to the previous ten average years.”

“To put this into perspective, the total suspended discharge for the Eel River was 168 million tons that year, which compares with the 184 million tons carried by the Mississippi River past St. Louis during the same year.” I had never even heard of the Eel River, so this caught my attention. 

Difficulty of Measuring

The authors’ point: This tremendous variability, occurring over a period of many years, is exceedingly difficult to sample and to understand because it is normally very expensive to prepare for sampling these types of rare events. However, sudden events are extremely significant in terms of quantity of sediments discharged…”

A Storm Like Harvey 

Another example: the Susquehanna, which flows south through eastern Pennsylvania before entering Maryland and Chesapeake Bay. Gibbs referenced another study that estimated sediment discharged in one week (June 22–28, 1972) during a major storm. “The Susquehanna River probably discharged greater than 50 x 10(6) metric tons of suspended sediment than had been discharged during the past three decades, and probably even during the past half century.” 

50 million more tons of sediment in one week than during the previous fifty years!

Annual Patterns Follow Extremes, Too

Gibbs looked at both extremely rare events like this and typical annual patterns. He found that,

“During 1 percent of a year (3.6 days), most rivers discharge better than one-half to two-thirds of their sediments for that year.”

These observations illustrate how important rare events are in transporting sediment. Gibbs says, “They dominate deposition over many years and greatly affect dredging and shoaling activities.”

I knew that most sediment transport happened during floods. But I until I read this study, I did not understand how extreme the disparities between normal and flood transport were.

Implications for Regulators and Legislators

Suddenly, the tumblers clicked into place. I understood why the Brown & Root study quoted sediment transport figures for the West Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek, and then told people to ignore them; they measured suspended solids when the streams were moving only at about 60 cfs, not 131,000 cfs as during Harvey. 

Suddenly, I also understood how TACA, the TCEQ and state legislators could conclude that mining in floodways was OK. They look at the 99%, not the 1%. But the 1% is when all the damage occurs.

As a business person, I might have made the same mistake. Conventional wisdom dictates that you design systems for the 99%, and that you’ll go broke chasing that last 1%. Or more to the point, the last .2%.

Design for Disaster: The 1% Solution

Very few industries design for extreme events. In the airline business, the cost of a crash is unthinkable. Nuclear power plants simply cannot go out of control.  Every pacemaker has to work. For almost everything else, 99% success gets you a nice Christmas bonus and a promotion. But when the cost of failure is a major portion of the nation’s fourth largest city…

As a legislator, you listen to the carefully crafted arguments of TACA and say to yourself, “This was a force majeure event, an act of God. We can’t ask them to design their mines for that. They’ll go broke!” And you never stop to think, “Yes, I can. No, they won’t. It’s simple. I ask them to move out of the floodway. It doesn’t cost them a dime out of pocket. They just don’t mine so close to the river.”

At least you don’t realize it’s that easy until the sediment sent downstream by Hurricane Harvey dams the river and contributes to wiping out 16,000 homes, 3,300 businesses, a college, a high school, a hospital, a fire station, entire subdivisions, and entire shopping centers. Repairs for all of the above also wiped out billions in equity, college funds and retirement savings.

We Need to Fix A Business Model that Destroys Growth

If that doesn’t move you, consider that it also slowed the growth of an area from 6% to 1%. That’s what happened in the Humble ISD right after voters approved a  $575 million bond referendum.

Attention: governor, developers, aggregate producers, concrete manufacturers, legislators, mayors, city council members, county commissioners, chambers of commerce, do you really want to bet on a business model that destroys growth?

Sometimes, it makes more sense to think of the 1% solution than the 99%. This is one of those times. In fact, the 1% is the ONLY thing we should be focusing on as we consider legislation to fix the broken sand mining model. What good is building cheap roads if you drive residents to move out of state?

These are my opinions on matters of public policy and protected under First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/16/2018

474 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Picking the Teeth of a Dredge

When Great Lakes (Dredge #2) punched through the side bar at River Grove Park last week, I got a rare chance to take some close up pictures of men at work. Here’s what the “cutter basket” of a dredge looks like when it’s clean. Just looking at it, the teeth inspire fear. It looks like a nightmare out of a John Carpenter movie.

The rows of teeth stir up sand, and saw through roots and submerged deadwood. Pumps then suction the sand through the holes between the blades. Photo courtesy of Don Harbour.

Why Dredging Can Be So Slow

However, submerged plant material sometimes gets caught in the teeth and clogs the inlet. This slows the intake of sand. To restore the flow, the dredge operator calls for a service crew, lifts the cutter basket out of the water, and men remove the debris by hand. It was a real productivity show-stopper.

Before cleaning, roots and weeds clog the cutter basket.
During cleaning, men manually remove debris, such as the weeds you see in the background, that get caught on teeth.
Half hour later, after cleaning, the dredge finally lowers the cutter basket back into the water and resumes dredging. Note the pile of debris now in the boat.

For those who care to dig a little deeper into dredging, this web site explains how companies vary the shapes of cutter baskets to reduce the number of these time out situations. 

There’s a real science to the way they design these things. The objective is to reduce the number of unwanted objects that make it into the pipe. If the pipe clogs, it could take much longer to fix.

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 15, 2018

473 Days after Hurricane Harvey

How to Protect Yourself from Flooding Due to Sand Mining

It’s hard for me to write this because I hate government regulation. But when an industry acts so irresponsibly in the pursuit of profit that it endangers my safety, my family, my property, and my community, I will fight to regulate it. I am at that point now with the Texas Aggregate and Concrete Association, which represents sand miners. 

The Problem

During Harvey, 131,000 cubic feet of water per second raced down the West Fork … through approximately 20 square miles of sand mines … located in the floodway … below a major dam … in a subtropical climate … prone to hurricanes and torrential rainfalls … where floods would blow through dikes made of sand … and reroute the river through the center of mines. (I’m guessing the Safety Committee was overruled.)

As a result, an abnormally large amount of sediment washed downstream; clogged rivers, streams and ditches; and helped create massive sediment dams. Those dams contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses with water contaminated by sewage when treatment plants were also overwhelmed. 

I don’t care how much TACA contributes to the economy or politicians. The flooding they helped create cost Kingwood College $60 million, Humble ISD $100 million, TexDoT $20 million, homeowners billions, businesses billions more, retirees their savings, and taxpayers $70 million for dredging. But worst of all, it cost 13 people their lives and endangered the life of my community. Forty-four percent of the businesses in the Lake Houston Area Chamber were damaged due to the flood.

Moreover, we have not yet begun to tally the long-term health costs of wading through floodwaters contaminated with sewage and years spent repairing moldy homes while trying to live in them.

The river took a shortcut through this West Fork mine during Harvey, blowing through dikes and roads as it carried sediment downstream. In other mines, it even swept away stockpiles.
The sediment swept downstream contributed to the growth of massive sandbars like this one that almost totally blocks the West Fork where it meets Lake Houston. As much as ten feet was deposited in this area during Harvey (five below water/five above). It continues to back water up throughout the Humble/Kingwood corridor.

If you want more responsible sand mining, the time to fight for it is now. 

Remember the Most Important Thing

 To reduce sediment during floods, move sand mining out of the flood plain. This should not be a huge economic burden. Houston became the fourth largest city in America overnight without sand mines in the floodway of the San Jacinto. 

The Solution

  1. Start with your state senator and state representative. Urge them to sponsor legislation that:
  2. Contact friends and relatives in other parts of the state. Urge them to do the same with their representatives and senators. Let them know that without their support, the homes, lives, businesses and health of their constituents could also be endangered by the same irresponsible business practices. It’s good to be business friendly, but not good to be resident hostile.
  3. Contact the heads of the transportation committees in the House and Senate. Contact Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Patrick. Urge them to demand that TexDoT refrains from purchasing any sand produced in floodways. TexDoT is the miners’ biggest customer.
  4. If they refuse to support legislation that enforces responsible operation of sand mines, ask if they will support a progressive tax on sand mines.  The tax would be based on their distance from the river. The further from the river, the lower the tax. Set the tax so that mining in or near a flood plain becomes disadvantageous and mining outside of the flood plain creates a cost advantage.
  5. Contact other groups or associations that you belong to that may have lobbying efforts in place that could help. We need allies to counteract the millions that TACA has spent on lobbying and political contributions. For instance, is your insurance through USAA? They have an active lobbying effort and the flooding affected them adversely. They would form a natural ally. Look for similar allies – through your work, your church, your bank, your trade associations, insurance company, or environmental groups you support. You can bet TACA is doing the same – with developers, contractors and their trade associations. 
  6. Ask your local city council and county representatives to endorse your efforts. Sad to say, but a letter or call from them counts more than letters from an ordinary citizen.
  7. Put extra effort against committee chairs in the State Senate and House. They have seniority and clout. If this comes down to “scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours” at the end of the session, their influence could make the difference.

Keep track of your efforts. If you are so inclined, let me know about them. I will tabulate the results and publish them periodically. 

Some Tips

  • Start a grass roots movement in your neighborhood, church or club. Reach out to friends, neighbors and relatives – especially those who flooded.
  • Personal letters count for more than form letters.
  • Be polite.
  • Tell them how flooding personally affected you and why you feel regulation is important.
  • Emphasize that what happened here could happen anywhere in the state and that mining in floodways is not necessary for economic growth. 
  • In fact, it can contribute to flooding that causes people to move away.
  • Tomorrow I will post fact sheets for your reference on key issues related to sand mining and their role in flooding. Refer people to them.

This battle will not be won or lost because Dan Huberty or Brandon Creighton endorse it. It will be won or lost in places like West Texas and North Texas that don’t often flood. The majority of the votes live there. So cast a wide net. Remember: silence is an endorsement of the way things are now. If you want change, let others know. Speak up now.

As always, these thoughts represent my opinions on matters of public policy. They are protected by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 13, 2018

472 Days after Hurricane Harvey

ReduceFlooding.com’s Recommendations for the 2019 Legislative Session

 As we approach the next legislative session, we have a rare chance to pass meaningful legislation that could reduce sedimentation from sand mining. Such legislation has been defeated repeatedly in the past by lobbying efforts of the Texas Aggregate and Concrete Association (TACA). TACA has spent millions to lobby against regulations that protect downstream citizens and property.

How Texas Fails to Protect Citizens & Property

Did you know that Texas, unlike other states and countries:

At the moment, people still hurt from Hurricane Harvey. By the next legislative session in 2021, the energy required for regulatory reform may die. The time to do something is now if we are going to do it. But what to do?

There are approximately 20 square miles of sand mines upstream from the Lake Houston area on both forks of the San Jacinto. 

ReduceFlooding.com Recommendations 

After studying government regulations and scientific literature from around the world for a year, I have concluded that citizens need three things to protect themselves from the ravages of Texas sand miners. The legislature needs to:

  1. Publish and enforce best management practices for sand mining that bring Texas standards up to those common in the rest of the country and the world. Among them, prohibit mining in erosion hazard zones. The water supply for two million people deserves nothing less.
  2. Put some teeth into penalties for non-compliance. Mines have left dikes unrepaired and open to the river for years without fines. Yet TCEQ fines average about $800 in the seven years since HB571. That’s a slap on the wrist and no meaningful incentive to change business practices.
  3. Establish a water protection district for the San Jacinto, such as the John Graves district on the Brazos. It pushes mining back beyond the 100–year flood plain and makes miners post a performance bond that ensures reclamation of the property when they are done mining.

TACA Recommendations

Not surprisingly, TACA has a different set of recommendations. See the full text here.

Instead of moving farther back from the river, they are lobbying to move INTO the river.

To “mitigate adverse impacts of sedimentation associated with flooding,” the association proposes:

  1. Building sand traps in the river that would allow them to mine river sand in exchange for payments to the SJRA.
  2. Selective dredging of impacted areas.
  3. Converting sand pits to a network of off-channel floodwater storage structures to mitigate flooding. 
  4. Letting land conservancies turn abandoned mines into wetlands or natural areas for wildlife habitat preservation.

Discussion of Differences

The ReduceFlooding.com recommendations would prevent damage from excess sedimentation currently attributable to sand mines.

TACA recommendations might help – in some cases – if miners actually implemented them. And if they followed best practices in doing so.

But those are big “IFs.” Nothing in TACA’s proposals actually obligates them to do anything. 

Sediment Traps

They say only that the option “can be” implemented, not that they will implement it. They also don’t specify what the traps are. While meeting in Austin with TACA, the TCEQ and legislators two weeks ago, I asked and got three different answers from three different people. They basically wanted to mine sand bars in the river adjacent to their property. However, river mining has proven so damaging in other parts of the world that it is outlawed in many countries, including most of Europe. 

“Selective” Dredging

Sounds good. But note the qualifier “selective.” Who selects? When KSA asked mines to remove the sand deposited in River Grove Park, no mine would take it. They said it was unsuitable for sale. And that’s the same kind of sand and sediment found in the mouth bar.

So is this offer an empty promise? I suspect it is. I’ll believe it when I see these words in print: “We promise to dredge the mouth bar at our expense.”

In the meantime, I will keep wondering. How will they get sand 10-20 miles upstream and make it cost competitive with the sand that they take from  their mines? It’s a pipe dream, no pun intended –

Off-Channel Floodwater Storage  

Note that they have committed only to developing a strategy. They say the lakes “could be” cost effective, but the Texas Water Conservation Association disagrees. The TWCA says that this strategy relies on pumps which cannot move water fast enough during floods. They also explicitly state that this approach is not cost effective. See page 10 of their report on Flooding in Texas.

Donating Abandoned Mines

Donating abandoned mines to land conservancies? Basically, they’re donating  liabilities (i.e., their obligation to reclaim mines) to a third party. 

We Need Promises, Not Puffery

In closing, TACA claims their recommendations will cost taxpayers NOTHING. Maybe TACA thinks Mexico will pay for everything. Or maybe they think they won’t have to do anything after this legislative session.

Before closing, TACA pats itself on the back. They claim, “As an industry that is focused on stewardship of our natural resources…we stand ready to work together with all stakeholders…”  

In my opinion, that’s where the BS gets nose deep and the English language – our currency of communication – is devalued to ZERO. I’ve met with these people three times (including the trip in Austin) and…

In six months, they haven’t once made any solid commitments to changing the way they do business in order to protect downstream residents and businesses. They haven’t even discussed it.

They just keep making the same empty promises in an attempt to delay any meaningful discussion of issues past legislative deadlines. This paper makes them appear positive when, in reality, their current business practices have contributed to the destruction of billions of dollars of property and helped undermine the infrastructure of entire communities.

Tomorrow…more about how you can help if you wish to get involved.

These are my opinions on matters of public policy, protected by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 11, 2018

470 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Drone Footage of River Grove Park Shows Scope of Last Flood

Jim Zura, owner of Zura Productions, sent me three clips shot from his drones last Saturday at River Grove Park. They show just how wide the river got at this low point at the peak of the flood. They also show the impact of dredging on the massive side bar that blocked the drainage ditch which runs through the park.

At this point, dredging is only about 20% complete. So we have not yet seen the full effect, nor will we until the mouth bar issue is addressed. 

Flying into River Grove and looking down on parking lot.
Flying out over river to dredged area
Flying out over playing fields

My thanks to Jim Zura for letting me share his work with the community. This impressive footage enhances our understanding of the world around us.

Posted on December 12, 2018, by Bob Rehak with permission from Jim Zura, Zura Productions

470 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Getting Close to Nature. Maybe too close!

During this recent flood, the East Fork crested after the West Fork – because of where heavy rain fell upstream. This morning, ABC13 posted a story about how FM1485 in New Caney was under water from East Fork flooding.

Otter Point in East End Park at dusk. This deck is normally about 4 feet above lake level. Photo by John Knoerzer.

Tonight, a friend, John Knoerzer, texted this photo to me from Otter Point at East End Park. In case you didn’t know, East End Park is on the East Fork of the San Jacinto. John runs a heating and air conditioning company called UniServe. He’s a great AC guy, but never claimed to be a photographer. Nevertheless, the composition of his photo above almost feels like art.

People familiar with this site will recognize that despite releasing water for days, water is still 4 feet above the normal level and that the East Fork was on the verge of coming out of its banks in the Kingwood area. In fact, it did in some low lying areas.

Once again, I am reminded how very different this flood could have been for many people if the City had not lowered the lake for several days before the rain came. They not only lowered it the announced 18″, they kept lowering it as the flood built. Despite all that, it was a close call.

Close Call Underscores Need for Additional Gates

The frantic efforts to lower the lake underscore how important additional gates are for the Lake Houston Dam. The City needs the ability to shed water faster before it reaches the height of the spillway. With greater capacity, operators can reduce uncertainty associated with pre-releasing water…by waiting until storms are closer and forecasts become more certain. Operators can then be confident that they are not wasting precious water.

Weather forecasts can be notoriously fickle. And in fact, this one did not drop rain where predicted. Nor did it drop as much as predicted. Still, many areas were on the verge of being submerged as you can see from the photos above and below.

Parks are meant to be flooded. Fuel tanks? Not so much.

Kudos for Houston City Council Member Dave Martin for leading the charge in the effort to get the City to pre-release water.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ command post for emergency dredging almost had an emergency of its own. Another foot higher and the site would have flooded. Photo taken Saturday afternoon, the day after the heavy rain.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/11/2018

469 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Where the Rain Fell

During last week’s major rain, the National Weather Service and others predicted that some of the heaviest rain would fall in the US59 corridor. In fact, it did…just not US59 North. A pocket of 6-8 inch rain hit Sugar Land, as you can see below.

Regional Rain Map From Last Storm

Regional rainfall map of last week’s big storm, supplied by National Weather Service

Two other pockets received 6-8 inches (red): The Woodlands and Huntsville. The vast majority of the area around Lake Houston received 4-5 inches (olive). Upstream from us, a small band through southern Montgomery County received 5-6 (orange). But upstream from Lake Conroe, the huge yellow area received only 3-4.

Diane Cooper, who sent this map to me, worked for the NWS for 20 years in various capacities including as a meteorologist, hydrologist and river forecaster. In predicting floods such as this, forecasters say, it’s important to look at rainfall upstream, not just your area.

How to Interpret

Reviewing such maps can help several ways. It can help predict peaks based on historical comparisons of rainfall. It can also help predict the timing of peaks, based on the distance high volumes have to travel. 

In this case, Lake Creek and the East Fork, because of heavy rainfall upstream, prolonged the high water in our area.


You can zoom from the entire United States to your own property, and even switch backgrounds, or highlight streams, by turning layers on and off.

By zooming out, you can see the storm as it approaches. And by varying the length of the period searched, you can get an idea of how much rain has fallen in the last 14, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days. You can even narrow the search to 1 hour to determine current intensity.

Where to Find

You can find all this regional information on the National Weather Service web site here.

If you forget the link, it’s always available on the Links page of this web site under the Weather/Flood Related subhead and a listing called NWS Regional Rainfall for the last 24 hours.

The site offers hundreds of different ways to search through information as varied as river stages “forecast” and “observed”; stream flow amounts; temperature; wind; visibility; ship observations and more. It’s one of the more powerful and useful online tools I have ever seen.

Play with it and learn how it works before the next storm. It can help reduce anxiety by showing you exactly what you’re up against. 

Precipitation for the last thirty days. Saturated ground makes for quick runoff.

You can even see where the storm went after it left here.  I’m just thankful I’m not one of those people buried under snow without power. Been there. Done that. Minnesota. January. It’s enough to make you a Texan. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 10, 2018

468 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Deadline Approaching for Hurricane Harvey Tax Relief

In the weeks after Hurricane Harvey made landfall, Congress passed the Cruz-Cornyn-Rubio bill, which provided crucial tax relief for hurricane survivors. An important part of this bill eliminated the tax penalty for hurricane survivors who wanted to withdraw from retirement accounts to pay for the costs of repairs storm damages.

Such qualified retirement account withdrawals must be made by December 31, 2018 – a deadline that is quickly approaching.

If you are still in the process of rebuilding and recovering from the ravages of Harvey, contact your tax advisor for more information.

Residents trying to escape as Harvey's floodwaters rose
Residents of Kingwood Village Estates as Harvey’s floodwaters rose.

The IRS also provides information on this and other Harvey-related programs at this link.

Thousands of families in the Lake Houston area suffered hurricane-related damage during Harvey and could qualify. Hardly anyone finished Harvey-related repairs before this year. So check this out if you haven’t already. Remind your friends, neighbors and relatives. Every little bit helps. Only 22 tax-relief days left till New Years!

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 9, 2018

467 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Whew! Luck and Aggressive Action Avert Major Flooding

Good to have the Pearl Harbor Day flooding in the rear-view mirror. And good that the worst predictions did not come true. So what happened? Did we just get lucky? Or did something go right for a change? It might have been a little of both.

Here’s what I know at 8 p.m. on Saturday night, about when the flood was expected to crest and flood multiple neighborhoods.

Lake Conroe Releases Have Peaked

According to Jace Houston, General Manager of the SJRA, releases from the Lake Conroe dam have likely peaked. The current release rate of 8181 cfs falls far short of previous floods and short of 9,000 to 11,000 cfs release rates predicted earlier.

Less Rain than Expected

That’s because we got less rainfall than predicted. Most of the area, including Lake Houston and upstream from Lake Conroe, received about 4.5 inches or less instead of the 8 to 10 predicted earlier.  And rain was fairly spread out over time. The heaviest rainfall seems to have happened in The Woodlands with some gages approaching 6 inches.

Aggressive Pre-Release by City

Finally, the City of Houston started releasing water from the Lake Houston Dam two days in advance of the storm. They took the lake level down two feet before the storm and kept releasing water during the storm. Had it not been for that, homes along the shoreline would almost certainly have flooded.

Looking across the flood-swollen San Jacinto at the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Command Site. Had the City not pre-released more than 2 feet of water from Lake Houston, this site would have been inundated.

Trending Steady or Down

At this moment, every stream gage that the SJRA reports upstream from the Lake Houston area is trending down. The peak has passed.

Harris County Flood Control shows that the gages at US59, West Lake Houston Parkway and FM1960 also appear to have peaked.

A photographic tour of the Kingwood area this afternoon showed that the river came out of its banks at River Grove Park and US59 and was on the verge of coming out in many other places. Surprisingly, I saw no flooded homes, not even on Marina Drive in Forest Cove. However, I did hear of many affected by street flooding, especially upstream in Montgomery County.

Still Much Mitigation Work to Do

Ben’s Branch by the Enclave and Kingwood Library had standing water. That should be a reminder that the County needs to make cleaning out this stream a high priority. 

One final point. Late this afternoon, I noticed a huge difference between the gages upstream and downstream from the dredging.

At 59, the West Fork exceeded its banks and peaked at 52 feet.
At West Lake Houston Parkway, the river was well within its banks and peaking around 45 feet.
At FM1960 the river was still well within banks and peaking at 44 feet.

Normally, these gages all read the same elevation. One can partially attribute the differences to spreading of the river. However one must also consider the huge blockages in the river that the Corps has not yet removed. At the moment, one of the biggest is just downstream from River Grove Park. Another, the mouth bar, blocks the river between Kings Point and Atascocita Point.

Even during a flood, the mouth bar (in the middle of this picture) stands out of the water by several feet and blocks the mouth of the West Fork. Water must make its way past this blockage through narrow passages on either side of it. It backs water up throughout the Humble/Kingwood area.
Here’s what the mouth bar looks like from the air, right after Harvey, before grass started growing on it. The area around it averages 1-3 feet deep. The deepest parts of the narrow channel reach 5 feet deep.

The Lake Houston Area lucked out this time due to aggressive action by City officials, a conservative release rate by the SJRA and the kindness of Mother Nature. I hope we don’t press our luck and assume that these blockages make no difference. They do. We need to remove them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018

466 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Putting a 54-Foot Flood in Historical Perspective

Below is a list of historic crests on the West Fork at the 59 bridge. If the current flood crests at 54 feet, it will be the tenth highest in the last 25 years. Scroll down the list for floods you remember. For instance, did you flood in the Memorial or Tax Day floods? 

The Memorial Day flood of 2015 on the West Fork crested at about the same height as this flood is expected to crest – 54 feet. However, that was lower than a flood in 2016, also near Memorial Day that crested at about 62 feet. 

This flood will be about three feet lower than the Tax Day flood in 2016. And about 2.5 feet higher than the Good Friday flood this year.

However, we will be about 15 feet below Harvey.

Near-Real-Time Inundation Map showing status of River Grove Park as of 7AM Saturday morning, December 8, 2018. Check your status at HarrisCountyFWS.org.

Remember: Things Change 

Apply some judgment to all these numbers. New blockages downstream, such as the mouth bar, could back water up compared to what it used to be. New development upstream could also. hasten the convergence of water and increase flood levels. And it’s not just how much water falls, it’s how fast it falls.

Recent Crests
(1) 49.51 ft on 07/05/2018
(2) 51.66 ft on 03/29/2018 Good Friday
(3) 49.46 ft on 02/26/2018
(4) 69.18 ft on 08/29/2017 Harvey
(5) 61.95 ft on 05/29/2016
(6) 57.32 ft on 04/21/2016 Tax Day
(7) 50.11 ft on 06/21/2015
(8) 53.65 ft on 05/29/2015 Memorial Day
(9) 49.56 ft on 05/18/2015
(10) 50.54 ft on 05/14/2015
(11) 49.58 ft on 03/13/2015
(12) 49.92 ft on 05/28/2014
(13) 52.09 ft on 07/14/2012
(14) 50.10 ft on 10/30/2009
(15) 50.10 ft on 04/28/2009
(16) 49.70 ft on 11/13/2008
(17) 62.80 ft on 09/14/2008
(18) 50.20 ft on 01/17/2007
(19) 51.40 ft on 10/17/2006
(20) 51.10 ft on 10/17/2006
(21) 49.60 ft on 05/02/2004
(22) 50.60 ft on 02/14/2004
(23) 55.80 ft on 11/07/2002
(24) 53.90 ft on 10/29/2002
(25) 55.30 ft on 06/10/2001 TS Allison
(26) 60.10 ft on 11/15/1998
(27) 55.10 ft on 10/20/1998
(28) 54.20 ft on 10/19/1998
(29) 46.90 ft on 02/22/1998
(30) 52.40 ft on 01/08/1998
(31) 67.30 ft on 10/18/1994 ’94 Flood
(32) 49.82 ft on 03/04/1992
(33) 51.72 ft on 06/27/1989
(34) 55.60 ft on 05/18/1989
(35) 50.46 ft on 11/26/1987
(36) 50.10 ft on 06/13/1987
(37) 42.20 ft on 08/23/1986
(38) 53.20 ft on 11/26/1985
(39) 51.80 ft on 10/26/1984
(40) 46.00 ft on 02/13/1984
(41) 54.00 ft on 05/23/1983
(42) 50.60 ft on 05/14/1982
(43) 50.10 ft on 09/01/1980
(44) 55.70 ft on 04/19/1979

5th Wettest December 7th on Record

According to Matt Lanza at Space City Weather, Houston officially had 4.31″ of rain on Friday, making December 7, 2018 the 5th wettest December day on record in the city, going back to the late 1800s. It was also our wettest single day since August of 2017, which we all know was during Hurricane Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018

466 Days since Hurricane Harvey