Whew! Luck and Aggressive Action Avert Major Flooding

Good to have the Pearl Harbor Day flooding in the rear-view mirror. And good that the worst predictions did not come true. So what happened? Did we just get lucky? Or did something go right for a change? It might have been a little of both.

Here’s what I know at 8 p.m. on Saturday night, about when the flood was expected to crest and flood multiple neighborhoods.

Lake Conroe Releases Have Peaked

According to Jace Houston, General Manager of the SJRA, releases from the Lake Conroe dam have likely peaked. The current release rate of 8181 cfs falls far short of previous floods and short of 9,000 to 11,000 cfs release rates predicted earlier.

Less Rain than Expected

That’s because we got less rainfall than predicted. Most of the area, including Lake Houston and upstream from Lake Conroe, received about 4.5 inches or less instead of the 8 to 10 predicted earlier.  And rain was fairly spread out over time. The heaviest rainfall seems to have happened in The Woodlands with some gages approaching 6 inches.

Aggressive Pre-Release by City

Finally, the City of Houston started releasing water from the Lake Houston Dam two days in advance of the storm. They took the lake level down two feet before the storm and kept releasing water during the storm. Had it not been for that, homes along the shoreline would almost certainly have flooded.

Looking across the flood-swollen San Jacinto at the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Command Site. Had the City not pre-released more than 2 feet of water from Lake Houston, this site would have been inundated.

Trending Steady or Down

At this moment, every stream gage that the SJRA reports upstream from the Lake Houston area is trending down. The peak has passed.

Harris County Flood Control shows that the gages at US59, West Lake Houston Parkway and FM1960 also appear to have peaked.

A photographic tour of the Kingwood area this afternoon showed that the river came out of its banks at River Grove Park and US59 and was on the verge of coming out in many other places. Surprisingly, I saw no flooded homes, not even on Marina Drive in Forest Cove. However, I did hear of many affected by street flooding, especially upstream in Montgomery County.

Still Much Mitigation Work to Do

Ben’s Branch by the Enclave and Kingwood Library had standing water. That should be a reminder that the County needs to make cleaning out this stream a high priority. 

One final point. Late this afternoon, I noticed a huge difference between the gages upstream and downstream from the dredging.

At 59, the West Fork exceeded its banks and peaked at 52 feet.
At West Lake Houston Parkway, the river was well within its banks and peaking around 45 feet.
At FM1960 the river was still well within banks and peaking at 44 feet.

Normally, these gages all read the same elevation. One can partially attribute the differences to spreading of the river. However one must also consider the huge blockages in the river that the Corps has not yet removed. At the moment, one of the biggest is just downstream from River Grove Park. Another, the mouth bar, blocks the river between Kings Point and Atascocita Point.

Even during a flood, the mouth bar (in the middle of this picture) stands out of the water by several feet and blocks the mouth of the West Fork. Water must make its way past this blockage through narrow passages on either side of it. It backs water up throughout the Humble/Kingwood area.
Here’s what the mouth bar looks like from the air, right after Harvey, before grass started growing on it. The area around it averages 1-3 feet deep. The deepest parts of the narrow channel reach 5 feet deep.

The Lake Houston Area lucked out this time due to aggressive action by City officials, a conservative release rate by the SJRA and the kindness of Mother Nature. I hope we don’t press our luck and assume that these blockages make no difference. They do. We need to remove them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018

466 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Putting a 54-Foot Flood in Historical Perspective

Below is a list of historic crests on the West Fork at the 59 bridge. If the current flood crests at 54 feet, it will be the tenth highest in the last 25 years. Scroll down the list for floods you remember. For instance, did you flood in the Memorial or Tax Day floods? 

The Memorial Day flood of 2015 on the West Fork crested at about the same height as this flood is expected to crest – 54 feet. However, that was lower than a flood in 2016, also near Memorial Day that crested at about 62 feet. 

This flood will be about three feet lower than the Tax Day flood in 2016. And about 2.5 feet higher than the Good Friday flood this year.

However, we will be about 15 feet below Harvey.

Near-Real-Time Inundation Map showing status of River Grove Park as of 7AM Saturday morning, December 8, 2018. Check your status at HarrisCountyFWS.org.

Remember: Things Change 

Apply some judgment to all these numbers. New blockages downstream, such as the mouth bar, could back water up compared to what it used to be. New development upstream could also. hasten the convergence of water and increase flood levels. And it’s not just how much water falls, it’s how fast it falls.

Recent Crests
(1) 49.51 ft on 07/05/2018
(2) 51.66 ft on 03/29/2018 Good Friday
(3) 49.46 ft on 02/26/2018
(4) 69.18 ft on 08/29/2017 Harvey
(5) 61.95 ft on 05/29/2016
(6) 57.32 ft on 04/21/2016 Tax Day
(7) 50.11 ft on 06/21/2015
(8) 53.65 ft on 05/29/2015 Memorial Day
(9) 49.56 ft on 05/18/2015
(10) 50.54 ft on 05/14/2015
(11) 49.58 ft on 03/13/2015
(12) 49.92 ft on 05/28/2014
(13) 52.09 ft on 07/14/2012
(14) 50.10 ft on 10/30/2009
(15) 50.10 ft on 04/28/2009
(16) 49.70 ft on 11/13/2008
(17) 62.80 ft on 09/14/2008
(18) 50.20 ft on 01/17/2007
(19) 51.40 ft on 10/17/2006
(20) 51.10 ft on 10/17/2006
(21) 49.60 ft on 05/02/2004
(22) 50.60 ft on 02/14/2004
(23) 55.80 ft on 11/07/2002
(24) 53.90 ft on 10/29/2002
(25) 55.30 ft on 06/10/2001 TS Allison
(26) 60.10 ft on 11/15/1998
(27) 55.10 ft on 10/20/1998
(28) 54.20 ft on 10/19/1998
(29) 46.90 ft on 02/22/1998
(30) 52.40 ft on 01/08/1998
(31) 67.30 ft on 10/18/1994 ’94 Flood
(32) 49.82 ft on 03/04/1992
(33) 51.72 ft on 06/27/1989
(34) 55.60 ft on 05/18/1989
(35) 50.46 ft on 11/26/1987
(36) 50.10 ft on 06/13/1987
(37) 42.20 ft on 08/23/1986
(38) 53.20 ft on 11/26/1985
(39) 51.80 ft on 10/26/1984
(40) 46.00 ft on 02/13/1984
(41) 54.00 ft on 05/23/1983
(42) 50.60 ft on 05/14/1982
(43) 50.10 ft on 09/01/1980
(44) 55.70 ft on 04/19/1979

5th Wettest December 7th on Record

According to Matt Lanza at Space City Weather, Houston officially had 4.31″ of rain on Friday, making December 7, 2018 the 5th wettest December day on record in the city, going back to the late 1800s. It was also our wettest single day since August of 2017, which we all know was during Hurricane Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2018

466 Days since Hurricane Harvey

West Fork Forecast to Flood up to 54 Feet

The following is the forecast for the San Jacinto River basin including the West and East Forks and the mainstem below Lake Houston, as of about 8:30 p.m. Friday evening. Some forecasters believe rainfall, runoff and flooding could go higher. This post has already been updated once.

West Fork: 

Major flooding forecast. Some uncertainty remains. Forecast could go a few feet higher. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist warns Northshore, Belleau Woods, Rivercrest, and Forest Cove will likely flood into early next week. Even elevated structures will be cut-off for several days.  

Lake Conroe is currently releasing 2121 cfs as of 7 p.m. Friday. This is a small fraction of the expected flows along the West Fork.

The West Fork reached it’s low point around 4 p.m. this afternoon after the City lowered the Lake to 40.75 feet. Flood gates remain open at the Lake Houston dam. Regardless, the West Fork is now expected to crest at around 54 feet on Monday afternoon and not return to its banks for several days.
Near Real Time Inundation Map from HarrisCountyFWS.org. Check the site periodically for latest updates.

This will be the inundation with a stage of 52.0 ft at US 59

East Fork: 

NWS forecasts minor to moderate flooding along the East Fork at FM 1485. At 62 ft FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be impacted.

Mainstem below Lake Houston: 

A rise to near flood stage is currently expected. A few low lying roads near the river could be flooded.

Overnight Rain Forecast

Lindner says, “Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches has occurred over much of the area this afternoon with isolated totals of 3-4 inches over southern Walker and extreme northern Montgomery Counties.”

“Surface low is deepening northwest of Harris County and suggests increasing potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms. They will train from WSW and SW to the ENE and NE. Rainfall will continue to pile up at the rate of .5 to 1.5 inches per hour this evening and much of what is now falling is directly running off,” says Lindner.

The National Weather Service and Lindner expect areas along and NW of US 59 will receive the most sustained rainfall this evening.

Impact of Lake Lowering

Luckily for the Humble Kingwood Area, the City of Houston reduced the level of Lake Houston more than the 18″ they originally projected. As of this afternoon, the Lake was down to 40.5. That should give us some cushion against flooding.

Said City Council Member Dave Martin, “The gates at Lake Houston continue to remain open and will be adjusted as needed to allow for even more water to be released should that be necessary. In response to the lowering of Lake Houston, the West Fork of the San Jacinto River near Highway 59 has also lowered by 2 feet providing additional capacity in the river. 

Expected SJRA Release Rates

According to Martin, the SJRA currently estimates that releases from Lake Conroe might peak at 9,000 to 11,000 cfs sometime over the weekend based on current forecasts. These amounts are relatively small in comparison to the rain events that our area saw during July 4, 2018 and Memorial Day 2016.

If you live in a low-lying area, monitor rainfall and water-level trends by visiting these web sites throughout the weekend.  

Posted on 12/7/2018 by Bob Rehak based on info from Harris County & COH

465 Days since Hurricane Harvey.

Handy Web Sites to Monitor Flooding

After Harvey, the SJRA, Harris County, National Weather Service and USGS added and upgraded stream gages throughout the region. Think of these gages as a distant early warning system. Looking at upstream conditions tells you what will soon happen in your area.

Here’s a list of handy web sites that display river, bayou and stream levels around Lake Houston and the state. Explore them before an emergency.  Bookmark those that offer the best information for your area. 

Reference Guide

Texas Water Development Board A one-stop shop for flood preparedness anywhere in Texas. Brings together local information from all over the state. Check everything from stream gages to the status of evacuation routes.

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction for Humble/Kingwood Area  NOAA predictions for the West Fork at the 59 bridge. You can also navigate to predictions for the East Fork.

Harris County Flood Warning System. Real-time rainfall, and river-channel monitoring and forecasting. The Warning System also contains near-real-time inundation mapping. For instructions on how to use it and a discussion of its limitations, see this post.

Gages listed on the Harris County Flood Warning System in northern Harris and Montgomery Counties. This screen capture was made at 11:18 AM on 12/7/18. You can see that heavy rain is already falling at the top of the area shown in this map.

National Weather Service  Get current weather info and warnings for our area.

National Weather Service regional rainfall for the last 24 hours. Useful for looking at upstream and downstream rainfall when evaluating potential for flooding.

Water-On-The-Go App USGS stream-gage data surrounding you wherever you go in Texas. Location-aware app with historical information.

Weather.gov.  Recommended by professionals.

Coastal Water Authority.  For levels of Lake Houston at the dam and approaching weather.

SJRA. See the dashboard on their home page Lake Conroe levels and discharge rates. For other gages, dig further into their website

If you lose track of this post, you can always find these sites under the LINKS tab of this web site.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/2018

465 Days since Hurricane Harvey

U.S. Army Liberates River Grove Park

465 Days after Hurricane Harvey, the U.S. Army has finally liberated River Grove Park in Kingwood. They literally took the beach.

Drainage ditch at River Grove is now open to the San Jacinto River.

Actually, they took the giant sand bar that Harvey deposited one night. It had been blocking the drainage ditch that runs through the park and that caused excessive flooding. The two shots immediately below show what that sand bar looked like before dredging.

Sandbar deposited by Hurricane Harvey at River Grove forced water to make a 90 degree turn before it could reach the river. This slowed the velocity of runoff and backed up water into subdivisions, like the Barrington in the background. While the sandbar looks low from the air it was up to 15 feet high directly in front of the drainage ditch (middle left). See below.

The same dune in the previous image photographed from the boat dock.

Dredge Now Moves Downriver

Dredge is now moving downriver.

Work to Date

Dredge #1 is working alongside the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge. It has dredged approximately 135,000 cubic yards of sand and silt to date, according to the Corps’ project manager.

Dredge #2 is working on the upstream end of the project, still near River Grove. It has dredged approximately 226,000 cubic yards to date. After dredging the access channel to River Grove, surveys showed there were some areas that the dredge could not reach.  Great Lakes, the contractor will use a barge-mounted excavator to perform final clean-up work. Updated surveys will then confirm achievement of plan goals.

Dredging plans for River Grove indicate a channel width of 50 feet and a depth of 15 feet near the boat ramp.

For all the people who live upstream from the drainage ditch that runs through River Grove, this is an early Christmas present. It will be interesting to see what happens to flood levels in the park now that the bar blocking the ditch has been removed…just in time for a major fall storm that could drop up to 10″ on the US59 corridor. However, we also need to remember that the City is dropping the level of the Lake by at least 18″.

Posted on December 7, 2018 by Bob Rehak

465 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Mercer Cancels Holiday in the Gardens Because of Expected Severe Weather

Just received word from Harris County Precinct #4 that Mercer Botanic Gardens and the Mercer Society (TMS) have cancelled Holiday in the Gardens this Saturday. Reason: expected severe weather including flooding and possible tornadoes.

The event had been scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 8 from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. at 22306 Aldine Westfield Road in Humble, 77338.

Holiday in the Gardens has been cancelled this year due to expected flooding and severe weather.

Storms forecast to hit the area Friday, Dec. 7, into early Saturday morning could dump as much as 8-10 inches of rain. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist expects the US59 corridor to be the focus of some of the most intense. He predicts flooding along Cypress Creek which borders the Mercer Botanic Gardens.

Stay tuned for details regarding additional events planned in 2019.

TMS, a nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, partners with Mercer Botanic Gardens to provide support for ongoing flood recovery efforts, programming, as well as improvements and expansions at Mercer Botanic Gardens. For more information about TMS or to make a donation, visit themercersociety.org.

Since 1974, Mercer has grown to more than 300 acres with more than 20 acres of beautifully maintained gardens in addition to an extensive walking trail system, ponds, ongoing educational and recreational programs, and more. For more information, visit www.hcp4.net/mercer.

Once again, Holiday in the Gardens has been cancelled this year due to expected severe weather.

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 6, 2018

464 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flood Watch Issued from Friday Noon to Saturday Noon For All SE Texas

Now would be a good time to make sure nothing is blocking the storm drains on your street. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Houston from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This means conditions are favorable for flooding to occur. Heavy rain is expected to impact Houston beginning 6 p.m. Friday, December 7, and periods of intense and/or prolonged rainfall may cause flash flooding.

National Weather Service Flash Flood Prediction as of Dec 6 @ 5:40 a.m.

Protective Actions

Be Prepared. Bring pets inside. Delay travel or outdoor activities during periods of heavy rainfall. If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning. Make sure storm drains on your street are clear.

If a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area:

DO NOT travel. Do not drive through flooded areas.  If you see water covering the road, do not attempt to cross it. Only a few inches of water can float a vehicle . If you find yourself in a dangerous situation where your vehicle is taking on water, get out of the vehicle, get to a higher position, and call 911.

Monitor Official Sources for Current Information:

Monitor Stream, Bayou, and Creek Conditions:  Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing creeks and bayous to rise and possibly exceed their banks.  Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.

Avoid Traveling during Periods of Heavy Rain:  Rain can reduce visibility and prevent you from seeing the road ahead, which could lead to accidents.

Lake Houston Lowered in Anticipation of Storm

Council Member Dave Martin’s office says that the City of Houston has been lowering Lake Houston water levels since late last night.

Property owners should expect a lowering of up to 18 inches. Should additional lowering be necessary, Council Member Martin will work with Houston Public Works to make sure that everything possible is done to secure life and property in the Lake Houston area.

As of 1:30 a.m. Thursday afternoon, the Coastal Water Authority reported the level of Lake Houston at 41.54 ft. That’s about 12 inches below normal. Pre-releasing water from the Lake creates extra capacity for incoming floodwater to reduce the risk of flooding.

Harris County Meteorologist Discusses Local Impacts

Jeff Lindner, the Harris County meteorologist, also issued a special report this morning warning that, “Flash Flooding of streets along with significant rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers to flood levels is possible.

Says Lindner, “Powerful upper level storm system moving into S CA and NW MX this morning will track generally eastward and into TX over the next 48 hours. Activity will increase today from the coastal bend northward along the I-35 corridor. Some of this activity will likely affect our far western and southwestern counties later this morning into the afternoon hours.”

Friday-Saturday

Lindner warns, “An excessive rainfall event is likely Friday afternoon-Saturday morning, resulting in flooding.”

“Models continue to suggest near record/record moisture levels will be in place by Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings show little instability, but loaded with plentiful moisture form the surface into the upper levels indicating convection will be very effective at heavy rainfall production. Unfortunately it appears the slow moving surface front will be nearing the US 59 corridor around the time that maximum parameters for heavy rainfall focus over SE TX. This includes a very strong 45-55kt low level jet which will transport copious moisture into the frontals slope. Add in a slow moving surface boundary and a nearly “tropical air mass” and you pretty much have everything needed for excessive rainfall rates.”

Widespread Rainfall of 3-6″, 8-10″ in Places

According to Lindner, widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches appear likely over nearly all of the area with isolated totals of 8-10 inches. It is still somewhat uncertain where those higher isolated totals may occur, but areas along and NW of US 59 may have a slightly greater risk than areas S of US 59. Much of the higher totals will tend to focus closely with the surface front and where it slows at times as it crosses the region. In addition to the overall totals, high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible which will lead to rapid urban flooding of street systems.”

River Forecast

The National Weather Service predicts significant rises in area watersheds. They say most basins can handle 6 hour totals of 3-4 inches, but anything greater than about 4 inches in 6 hours is going to likely be cause for concern. For Harris County, all of the creeks and bayous will likely see significant rises and exceeding of flood stage levels is possible. Greatest concern at the moment is for the watersheds over the northern half of Harris County. Some structure flooding will be possible if watersheds exceed their banks or intense rainfall rates overwhelm street systems.

They made the following predictions at 12:46 p.m., Thursday.

San Jacinto: minor to moderate flooding expected on the West Fork. Minor flooding on the East Fork

Cypress Creek: minor flooding forecast from Katy Hockley to West Fork of the San Jacinto River

Trinity: minor to moderate flooding expected along the entire river below Riverside

Brazos: Minor flooding expected at Hempstead and Bryan and will likely see at least minor at Richmond and Rosharon

Summary

Timing: Friday morning College Station area, mid to late afternoon Houston area through Saturday morning

Amounts: 3-6 inches widespread isolated 8-10 inches. US59 corridor may get the worst.

Watersheds: flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers probable

Street Flooding: high threat for street flooding

Severe: a few storms late Friday night may become severe near the coast with a tornado threat.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts

Excessive rainfall amounts for Day 2

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/6/2018

464 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Dawn of a New Day for the Lake Houston Area

This morning, Dr. Charles Campbell, shared a spectacularly beautiful and inspiring photograph with me. He took it right here in Kingwood. It symbolizes all the hope and promise of a new day, maybe even a new year. Dr. Campbell jogs every morning at sunrise in East End Park where he took this shot.

Sunrise over Lake Houston from Kingwood’s East End Park at Otter Point. Photo courtesy of Dr. Charles Campbell. 

Reconstruction to Date

As I lost myself in this photo, I reflected on the progress our dynamic community has made this year.

  • Most people have rebuilt from Hurricane Harvey or are at least close to completion.
  • Most businesses have returned.
  • Kingwood College should completely re-open in January with $60 million of renovations and new construction.
  • Kingwood High School also received an estimated $60 million makeover and update.
  • Memorial Hermann opened a new 45,000 square foot Convenient Care Center in the heart of Town Center.

Flood Mitigation Progress

And to help prevent a repeat of Harvey:

  • The Army Corps of Engineers has started a $67 million dredging project which it hopes to complete by next April.
  • City, County, State and Federal leaders have rallied to urge FEMA and the Corps to extend the project past the mouth of the river. Both of these projects should help move water through the river faster.
  • Mayor Turner has promised to add 10 new flood gates to the Lake Houston dam. This will help shed water to Galveston Bay faster in future storms.
  • Harris County voters approved a historic $2.5 billion Flood Bond. It includes money that will help build the gates  and dredge the river on an ongoing basis.
  • The bond package also includes money to help build additional upstream detention. That will hold water upstream in future flood events.
  •  The SJRA adopted a policy of seasonally lowering Lake Conroe during the peak of spring rains and the Hurricane Season. They will hopefully continue this until other mitigation measures are in place. This helps give us an additional buffer against giant storms.
  • The City of Houston adopted a policy of lowering Lake Houston, also in anticipation of major storms. Again, this gives the lake extra capacity to absorb more runoff before the river is forced out of its banks. This also is a temporary measure until other mitigation measures are completed.
  • Government buyouts of repeatedly flood-ravaged homes have already commenced.
  • The county is also buying out properties below the Lake Houston dam in anticipation of higher flow rates once additional gates are installed.
  • Harris County has purchased floodway property and will convert it to new parks. Construction on Edgewater Park will begin next year and create a second boat launch for area residents.
  • The City passed a new ordinance requiring homes to be built 2 feet above the 500-year flood plain.
  • TexDoT completely reconstructed and strengthened the I-69 southbound lanes.
  • The County and the Corps are starting to open up ditches like the one at River Grove that drains the western third of Kingwood.

Dredging has reached the side bar and up into the drainage ditch at River Grove past the boat dock. Photo Courtesy of Dave Seitzinger.

New Day for the Community That Refused to Quit

Clearly, we have a lot to be thankful for this Christmas. But as I look back, the thing I am most thankful for is that the people of this community chose not to ignore flood issues. We addressed them head on. As a result, our our homes, health and future will be much safer.

When I moved to Texas almost 40 years ago, I fell in love with the can-do attitude of Texans.

Tell a Texan something can’t be done and he’ll show you how.

Tell a Texan it’s hopeless and she’ll tell you to get out of her way.

And among Texans, few embody this spirit more than Houstonians, especially those in the Lake Houston area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 5, 2018

463 days since Hurricane Harvey

Ted Cruz Throws His Weight Behind Mouth-Bar Campaign with Letter to FEMA

The mouth bar. Sand, in part from the mines, has almost totally blocked the West Fork where it meets Lake Houston. Before/after measurements show that as much as ten feet was deposited in this area during Harvey (five below water/five above).

Ted Cruz has written a letter to FEMA asking for the agency’s help in removing the giant sand bar at the mouth of the San Jacinto River.  In the letter, he calls the mouth bar a danger to property and lives.

Here is the text of his press release:

Sen. Cruz Pens Letter to FEMA Administrator Urging Additional Action on San Jacinto River

‘IN ORDER TO PREVENT FUTURE FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND SAVE LIVES, I URGE YOU TO AMEND THE PROJECT WORKSHEET TO INCLUDE THE WEST FORK MOUTH BAR IN THE SCOPE OF THE PROJECT’
December 3, 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last week penned a letter to FEMA Administrator Brock Long urging him to amend the scope of the existing FEMA dredging project on the San Jacinto River near Kingwood to include the mouth bar located on the West Fork of the river. Over 1,600 homes flooded in the area during Hurricane Harvey. The mouth bar, which is the biggest blockage in the river that feeds into Lake Houston, was made significantly worse by Harvey.

“In order to prevent future flooding of property and save lives, I urge you to amend the project worksheet to include the West Fork mouth bar in the scope of the project,” Sen. Cruz wrote. “Without such an amendment, surrounding residents are at risk of future flooding and FEMA is missing a key opportunity to leverage its current assets, help the state better prepare for future disasters, and reduce the federal cost of future disasters.”

Read the full letter here and below:

November 28, 2018

The Honorable William B. Long
Federal Emergency Management Agency
500 C Street, South West
Washington, D.C. 20472

Dear Administrator Long:

Over the last year, with the assistance of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Texas has made enormous strides in recovering and rebuilding from the devastation of Hurricane Harvey (DR-4332). As the recovery process continues, it is important to ensure that FEMA fully leverages its assets and funding to reduce the taxpayer cost of future disasters and help the state better prepare for future weather events.

One project in particular where this can be accomplished is the emergency dredging of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River—an area where Hurricane Harvey flooded 1,621 homes. The San Jacinto River Dredging Project (W9126G18B0019) is a DR-4332 FEMA Mission Assignment that directs the United States Army Corps of Engineers (Army Corps) to return the river to pre-event conditions. Specifically, this is a debris removal assignment, which includes sediment, with an estimated cost of $61 million.

Although the Army Corps recently began dredging operations on the West Fork of the river, the scope of the project does not include the delta or “mouth bar” that formed in the river and was made significantly worse by Hurricane Harvey. In order to prevent future flooding of property and threat to human life, FEMA should amend the project worksheet so that the scope of the project includes dredging the West Fork mouth bar and surrounding shoal sediments.

Under Section 403 of the Stafford Act, “Federal agencies may . . . provide assistance to meeting immediate threats to life and property resulting from a major disaster,” which includes such activities as debris removal.

The mouth bar on the West Fork is currently constraining in-bank flow conveyance capacity, and local officials have referred to it as “the largest blockage on the river.” The Army Corps confirmed this analysis in a May 2018 Army Corps Value Engineering Study which indicated that “[t]he water [in the river] then slows as it reaches the upper end of Lake Houston dumping its suspended sediments into a delta. The accretion of this delta creates a dam like feature which then increasingly slows water and accretes the delta, compounding the problem.”

The sediment deposited into the river from Hurricane Harvey exacerbated the accretion of the mouth bar. If the West Fork mouth bar is not addressed to restore flow conveyance capacity, then the next rain event will likely result in both public and private property damage from flood waters rising out of the river’s banks. Even a small rain event in March created more flooding than expected as a result of the sediment constraints from Hurricane Harvey.

In order to prevent future flooding of property and save lives, I urge you to amend the project worksheet to include the West Fork mouth bar in the scope of the project. Without such an amendment, surrounding residents are at risk of future flooding and FEMA is missing a key opportunity to leverage its current assets, help the state better prepare for future disasters, and reduce the federal cost of future disasters.

Thank you for your efforts on behalf of the people of Texas and for your prompt consideration of my request.

Sincerely,

–––––

This is great news for Humble and Kingwood residents. It comes hot on the heels of a similar letter written earlier by Congressman Ted Poe to the head of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Perhaps now we will get some action. Let’s pray for a Christmas  miracle.

Kudos to Houston City Council member Dave Martin for setting up a meeting between area residents and Senator Cruz’ staff at which residents helped explain the issues.

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Bob Rehak

462 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Texas Water Conservation Association Issues Report on Pros and Cons of Flood Mitigation Strategies

The Great Lakes Dredge finally liberated the ditch that drains the western third of Kingwood 462 days after Harvey.

A new report by the Texas Water Conservation Association reviews the relative merits and problems with various flood mitigation strategies. The strategies include pre-release from reservoirs; on- and off-channel reservoirs; aquifer storage and recovery; and dredging. Anyone who wants to understand how professionals evaluate the merits of different strategies should read this concise, clearly written, 25-page report called Flooding in Texas: Preparation and Response.

About the Authors

The Texas Water Conservation Association is an association of water professionals and organizations in the state of Texas. Its members represent river authorities, municipalities, navigation and flood control districts, drainage and irrigation districts, utility districts, municipalities, groundwater conservation districts, all kinds of water users, and general/environmental water interests. Membership includes engineers, hydrogeologists, attorneys, government administrators, and numerous other individuals committed to Texas water resource management. Don’t be scared by the author’s titles.

Bias Toward Conservation over Mitigation

The only warning I have: the authors have an inherent bias toward water conservation as opposed to flood mitigation, as their name would imply. That said, it’s important for people who flooded to understand that flood control is not the main responsibility of people who operate dams. Water conservation is.

Three Types of Reservoirs

The report starts with a discussion of the three main types of reservoirs: water-supply, flood-control, and dual-purpose reservoirs. Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are both water-supply reservoirs. Texas has 150 such reservoirs, by far the most common type.

That section ends with this admonishment: “In water supply reservoirs, there is often very little storage available between maximum design impoundment and the top of the gates. This distance is sometimes referred to as freeboard and should not be considered extra storage, as it is unsafe to operate in that manner. A reservoir that attempts to indefinitely impound stormwater without an emergency spillway will eventually overtop at the lowest elevation across the dam, usually the top of the control gates. This kind of operation is dangerous as it jeopardizes the integrity of the dam, potentially resulting in a dam failure. For this reason, reservoir operators follow specific flood operation protocols to ensure that the dam is not breached.”

Four Main Mitigation Strategies Examined

A discussion of four main flood mitigation strategies follows.

Many people in the Houston area question why Lake Conroe did not release earlier during Harvey. Factors that influence whether prerelease may be of help or hurt include: 

  • Predicted location and amount of rainfall in relation to a reservoir; 
  • River-basin size and lag time; 
  • Existing downstream flow;
  • Predicted weather conditions below a reservoir. 

Direction of Approaching Storm is Crucial in Pre-Release

During Harvey, a factor that weighed heavily in the decision-making at the Lake Conroe Dam was the direction of the approaching storm. Because it approached from the Gulf, operators worried that pre-leasing water would overload downstream communities which already struggled with the local rainfall.

On the other hand, both the Memorial and Tax Day floods approached from the West or North. In those cases, pre-release was safer.

This section concludes with the observation that, “Harvey dumped approximately … 75 million acre feet of water. Texas’ statewide water conservation storage is approximately 31.5 million acre feet. … No amount of prerelease, and no amount of temporary or permanent conversion of water supply storage, would have appreciably reduced the magnitude of flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey.” And later, “Prerelease is a strategy with inherent risk, because the decision making regarding its use is based on imperfect predictions.”

On-Channel Reservoirs: A Proven Approach

Next, the report considers On-Channel reservoirs, such as Barker and Addicks. “On-channel reservoirs,” they say, “are an important component of the flood mitigation discussion, and have demonstrated effectiveness in multiple areas of the state. As an added benefit, on-channel reservoirs also provide an opportunity to double as a major water supply source, as many of the state’s dual-purpose reservoirs have done for decades.” Harris County Flood Control budgeted for these in its $2.5 million flood bond.

Off Channel Reservoirs Have Severe Limits

Off-Channel Reservoirs represent a less attractive alternative. Sand miners fondly point to the extra storage capacity in their pits for flood mitigation. However, the report points out that pumps can’t work fast enough to create meaningful reductions in flood levels. Other problems: very limited capacity, pumping costs, and debris floating in the water that could clog pumps.

Pros and Cons of Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR)

Many people have discussed the possibility of aquifer storage and recovery. It has proved to be a viable strategy for water supply. Managers pump excess water underground for storage in aquifers until needed for future use.

“Initial feasibility and pilot-testing studies are important,” say the authors, “as ASR requires the right physical conditions (e.g. geology, ground slope, groundwater quality) to be feasible. It also must be economically competitive with other viable options.”

“For ASR to have any meaningful impact in an extreme flooding event, extensive off-channel storage would be required, because the rate at which water could be injected underground is so slow in comparison to the rate of flood flows. As such, the off-channel storage is actually the mechanism for mitigating the flood in this case, not the ASR system.” 

“As a flood control strategy, however, ASR cannot provide a first line of defense during an extreme storm event due to its need for extensive storage and treatment and its inability to compete economically with other solutions.”

Also, water treatment would be needed before pumping it into the ground because water quality in large flood events is extremely degraded. 

When Dredging Helps

The report discusses many purposes for dredging and extensively references the Army Corps’ emergency project on the San Jacinto. It discusses dredging in rivers, streams, lakes, and ditches; for maintenance, navigation, and to remove blockages (like those we have); from cost, environmental, technical, and disposal points of view. Authors lament the expense of dredging but acknowledge its usefulness in certain cases.

Need for Single Source of Emergency Communication

 Before closing, the reports also addresses the need for a consistent, focused communication protocol to warn people when flood gates will open. This section also discusses the regulatory environment that dam operators live within. In other words, the restraints that they face.

It concludes by saying that, “During a flood event, it is important that evacuation orders and flood warnings come from a single, designated source to avoid confusion and ensure accurate information for the public. In Texas, the leading notification providers are local Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) and the National Weather Service (NWS). Reservoir conditions are one piece of the flooding puzzle and operators must provide real-time information to EOCs and the NWS so those entities can weigh all contributing factors to provide the best possible flooding information to the public.”

Look at Flooding from Professional’s Perspective

If you want to understand the world from a water-professional’s point of view, read this thought-provoking report. I didn’t agree with everything in it, but usually when I didn’t, it was because they were referencing another location, not ours. The author’s freely acknowledge that every watershed is unique and must be evaluated from its own perspective.

Posted on December 3, 2018 by Bob Rehak

462 Days since Hurricane Harvey