Latest Barry Update and How to Interpret a Cone Map

There’s a lot more in a cone map than meets the eye. The map below shows the latest forecast track for Tropical Storm Barry. Here’s a short tutorial on some other things you can get out of it.

Status of Tropical Storm Barry as of 1PM CDT, Friday July 12, 2019

As you can see, the trajectory continues to favor landfall in Louisiana and then movement up through Arkansas. However, these maps convey much more information that may not be apparent at first glance.

What Cone Map Symbols Mean

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).

The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone.

The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated.

The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical.

If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time: 

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

Forecasting Uncertainty

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the cone map graphic.

The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5.

Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. So about 2 out of 3 times.

How the NHC Forms Cone Maps

To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

Big Difference Between Cone Size and Storm Size

Realize also that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center.

The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center.

Other Linked Graphics Complete the Story

The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in this linked Wind History graphic.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

All things considered, the latest forecast shows that there’s only a 5% chance that Houston will see tropical storm force winds from this event.

If you have relatives or friends living closer to the center of the projected path, the tabular data above, will show you the exact percentages for dozens of cities.

To Find the Latest Cone Maps

Go to the National Hurricane Center and click on two-day or five-day. Then scroll to the bottom of the page for many linked graphics that tell the story of the storm.

Rainfall Graphic

Latest rainfall map projects that Houston may get up to an inch of rain, while parts of Louisiana are getting more than 16 inches.

Posted by Bob Rehak with Info from the National Hurricane Center on July 12, 2019

682 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Fault Movement and Property Damage Linked to Aquifer Depletion in Montgomery County

A new report just released by the SMU Department of Earth Sciences draws several important conclusions that bear on the groundwater management debate in Montgomery County. The report links aquifer depletion and subsidence with fault movement, road damage, home damage, and damage to other structures.

Subsidence in the north Houston/Montgomery County region from a separate report by the HGAC.

Aquifer Depletion Linked to Fault Activation/Property Damage

Significant findings include:

  • Excessive groundwater production has resulted in water-level declines, subsidence, and fault movement.
  • Subsidence and fault movement are not just limited to the Evangeline aquifer; they also occur in the Jasper aquifer.
  • Fault movement has damaged roads, highways, homes, wells, pipelines, and other surface structures.
  • Timing and location of fault movement correlates to timing and location of water-level declines and subsidence.
  • Damages from fault movement go beyond The Woodlands area. They extend as far north as the Conroe Aquatics Center near downtown Conroe.

Peer Reviewed Research Funded by NASA and SMU

NASA and SMU co-funded the peer reviewed research which appeared in the June 25, 2019, issue of the journal Remote Sensing.

Some key quotes:

“Hundreds of paved roads and homes in the Houston area are being offset by faults and require frequent maintenance.”  (p. 1)

“The newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to excessive groundwater exploitation from the Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County.  The continuous mining of groundwater from the Jasper aquifer formed new water-level decline cones over Montgomery County, corroborating the intensity of new fractures.” (p. 1)

“Our study seems to validate that subsidence and related shallow subsurface fault activities in northern [Greater Houston] relates to mining of aquifers.” (p. 17)

“Faulting activities were in connection with the spatial distribution and density of water-level decline and ground subsidence.”  (p. 16)

“…the newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to the stress associated with fluid pressure reductions caused by excessive water extraction from Montgomery County aquifers.” (pp. 17-18)

Corroborates Other Research

The results of this SMU report further corroborate recent findings published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District in May, 2018. The subsidence district concluded that the Jasper aquifer is compressible and that the potential for subsidence increases in the northern portions of the Jasper where it is being used for freshwater supply.  

For Full Report

For the full report, see: Qu, F.; Lu, Z.; Kim, J.-W.; Zheng, W. Identify and Monitor Growth Faulting Using InSAR over Northern Greater Houston, Texas, USA. Remote Sensing. 2019, 11, 1498.

Need for Full-Cost Accounting

Last year, I observed that we should have full cost accounting for sand mining along the river. If we had such a thing, sand mining practices might be different. The same could be said for groundwater pumping. As a famous oil-filter commercial once said, “You can pay me now or pay me later.” Yet another Montgomery County mystery to ponder.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/12/2019

682 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Living on the Edge or The Death of Caution

Ninety-one more acres. Gone. Without a care or hint of caution. This used to be a forest and wetlands. With deer. Seasonal ponds. And creeks running through it. Adjacent to the West Fork of the San Jacinto.

And most of it is in the floodplain. Which will likely be expanded shortly after this development is built.

New development between Sorters Road and the West Fork of the San Jacinto. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.

Now it’s barren. Dirt in the process of becoming concrete and asphalt shingles. Three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath tributes to willful blindness. The “vision” of a Colorado developer. Who saw an opportunity to buy cheap, flood-prone land and sell high. If they marketed it right.

Maybe they will call the high-density, starter homes “river estates.” Maybe the streets will bear the names of the birds or wild animals that once lived here. Eagle Pond. White Tail Trail. Or maybe the names will invoke the imagery of an exclusive retreat by the shore of a natural wonder. Sandy Shore Lane. Hidden Springs.

But the reality will be far different. Mold. Rot. Silicosis from the surrounding sand mines. Flooding. Repairs. Living with fear every time a storm approaches. Years lost hassling with adjusters and contractors. Paying for the home over and over again…every time it is rebuilt. Tax protests. Eventual buyouts. Abandonment. Decay. Demolition.

Panning right from previous shot. The West Fork of the San Jacinto is lost between the sand mines in the background. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.

And finally eventual restoration of the forest and wetlands, that if left intact, could have avoided all the pain and suffering. Here. And downstream. Where other people had no idea that tax-subsidized flood-insurance would encourage the death of caution and put them at risk, too.

More sand mines in background. Sorters Road runs diagonally from center bottom to center right. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.
Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.

Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.

More on Throwing Caution to Wind

As a side note: Did you notice something else in the photos of this Montgomery County development? Just like Woodridge Village, silt fences have major gaps! Runoff is going directly into ditches which lead to the West Fork. I wonder if the Montgomery County permitting authorities and TCEQ know about that. LJA Engineers probably hasn’t gotten around to inspecting this one yet. Are you seeing a pattern here?

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/11/2019 with drone photography by Fritz Willette of BCAeronautics

681 Days since Hurricane Harvey

All thoughts expressed in this post are my opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Invest 92L Now Tropical Storm Barry, but Threat to Houston Diminished

This morning, Invest 92L intensified into a tropical storm and received the name Barry. However, it is also shifting east, reducing the threat to the Houston area. We are now entirely outside the cone of uncertainty.

Sporadic Thunderstorms Now Main Threat From Barry

The main threat now to the Houston area from Barry: showers and thunderstorms as high moisture levels and disturbances approach from the ENE/NE today. According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “It is possible a few outer rain bands could move into the area Friday and Saturday. These bands would produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.”

Risk of Flash Flooding Extremely Low

The National Weather Service puts us outside the area with even a 5% risk of flash flooding.

Even the rainfall potential is minimal. Light green represents less than 2 inches of rainfall and it covers only our souther counties.
Here’s where the heavy rains are located at this moment. From this image, you can see that the storm still does not have a tightly defined center of rotation.
Natural color image showing extent of disturbances.

Heavy Surf and Higher than Normal Tides Predicted

If you were planning on boating offshore this weekend, you probably want to rethink those plans.

Seas should increase across all of the northern Gulf of Mexico because of Barry. Lindner expects waves in the 6-8 foot range along the upper Texas coast by the weekend, with some possibly even higher east of Galveston. This will also elevate tides along Gulf facing beaches. Tides should peak Saturday 2.0-2.5 feet above normal.

All that water coming in produces strong undertows when it goes out. If you like watching waves, watch from a safe distance.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/11/2019

681 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Excavation Continues along Upper Ben’s Branch while HCFCD Gets Ready to Begin on Lower Portion

In response to citizen requests after the May 7th flood, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has been excavating the portion of Ben’s Branch near North Park Drive and Woodland Hills Drive in Kingwood. The St. Martha Catholic school on the south side of the creek and Kids in Action on the north side both flooded during that event.

Infrequent Maintenance and Upstream Development Took Their Toll

The ditch had become badly filled in due to infrequent maintenance and upstream development. This project, covered by HCFCD’s maintenance budget began last month.

Thomas Blailock, a reader, has been sending in these pictures showing the progress.

Much of the creek has been cleared already. And just in time for Hurricane Barry! I’m sure all the merchants along North Park are breathing a sigh of relief.

Looking west from Woodland Hills at Bens Branch. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.
Looking east from Woodland Hills at Bens Branch. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.
By comparison, here’s a “before” shot taken about two weeks ago. Photo courtesy of Thomas Blailock.

Next Up: Lower Portion of Ben’s Branch

This project is separate from the excavation that will soon begin on Ben’s Branch south of Kingwood Drive. We should soon see about 8,000 truckloads of dirt coming out of that reach of the stream.

Twelve senior residents of Kingwood Village Estates died near that area after Harvey. They passed as a result of injuries suffered during the evacuation or the stress of losing their homes.

Taylor Gulley for an Encore

Next up: the upper portion of Taylor Gulley…followed by additional clearing of debris in the lower portion later this summer. Approximately 200 homes flooded adjacent to Taylor Gully in the March 7th storm, due in part to upstream development which has deposited sediment at higher than normal rates in the channel.

A shout out to Barbara Hilburn of Kingwood Lakes who raised awareness about internal drainage issues after Harvey. She has worked long and hard to jumpstart these clean outs.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/10/2019

680 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Likely for Louisiana Coast; Tropical Storm Force Winds Could Hit Houston on Saturday

NOAA predicts Invest 92L will become Hurricane Barry and hit southwest Louisiana by Saturday morning. That could leave Houston with tropical storm force winds in the 45-70 mph range.

Current forecasts indicate landfall in southwest Louisiana on Saturday morning with the storm strengthening to 85mph just before landfall.
Tropical storm force winds in the 40 to 70 mph range could also hit Houston on Saturday morning. Intensity depends on your location. See map above.
Definite rotation showing, but not yet wound tight. Hurricane hunter planes will fly into the storm this afternoon and weather stations along the coast have doubled their upper air soundings.

Watches Likely To Extend Westward Later Today or Early Thursday, Potentially Include Upper Texas coast

Mid level circulation over the east-central Gulf of Mexico continues to develop. Current ship and buoy data in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico indicate surface winds of 20-35 knots are already being experienced under deep convection. The US Air Force will fly the area early this afternoon to determine if/where a center of circulation has formed.

NOAA and USAF plan multiple low- and high-level missions. Effective today, weather offices along the US Gulf coast will begin launching upper air soundings every 6 hours instead of every 12. 

Track Remains Uncertain

There is still considerable uncertainty concerning the track of the storm. Adjustments remain possible and all residents within the error cone should make preparations.

85 MPH Winds Predicted at Landfall

The National Hurricane Center predicts an 85 mph hurricane before landfall in Louisiana. Much of this intensification occurs within the last 24 hours before landfall. While conditions in the near term (next 24-36 hours) are generally favorable for development, consolidation of the inner core will take some time. Much of the development should occur as the system nears the coast.

Tropical storm force winds in the 40 to 70 mph range could hit Houston – also on Saturday morning.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, feels, “This will likely be a case where an intensifying hurricane is approaching the coast on Saturday.”

Storm Surge Watch In Effect for Texas Coast

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely along portions of the Louisiana coast starting Friday and more likely into Saturday. Large long period swells will move into the upper Texas coastal waters starting late Thursday and building Friday into the weekend. This could push tides up along the Gulf facing beaches late Friday into the weekend (Bolivar).

Should the forecast track adjust westward any, impacts to the upper TX would be increased.

Recommended Actions

A large portion of southeast Texas remains in the official error cone. If the track shifts westward again, as it did last night, it could produce greater impacts to our area.

  • Have hurricane plans ready to be enacted if the track shifts to the west.
  • Stock hurricane supplies.
  • Monitor forecasts frequently. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on July 10, 2019 at 12:30pm

680 Days since Hurricane Harvey

LJA Engineering Report on Woodridge Stormwater-Pollution Safeguards Shows Deficiencies

An investigation by LJA Engineering found many stormwater pollution-prevention safeguards were not in place on the Woodridge Village construction site at the time of the Elm Grove flood on May 7.

After the flood, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) received multiple complaints about alleged SWPPP (stormwater pollution prevention plan) violations on the site. TCEQ referred them to Montgomery County for investigation. Montgomery County then referred them to LJA Engineering, which coincidentally also represented the Woodridge developer. But more on the apparent conflict later.

Timeline of Investigation

  • Between May 8 and May 10, 2019, LJA Engineers received five complaints for investigation.
  • On or about May 11, 2019, Rebel Contractors began installing safeguards and posting permits that should have been in place months before the flood.
  • LJA conducted its investigation on May 15, 2019.
  • LJA submitted its findings to Montgomery County on May 16. The report showed several deficiencies, but many more had been corrected shortly before the LJA inspection.
  • On June 5, 2019, LJA reinspected the site and found that all corrective actions requested on 5/15/2019 had been completed.
  • On July 8th, an email between LJA and the TCEQ indicated that the contractor was now in compliance and that Montgomery County considered all the complaints resolved.

Findings of LJA Engineering Investigation

Below are copies of the reports. Note that the LJA report reflects only what was in place at the time of their investigation, not before the flood.

Results of 5/15 inspection show that SWPPP permits were posted, however they were posted just before the inspection even though construction had been in progress for months.

The following photos were attached to the email containing the report above. They give the impression that the vast majority of silt fencing had been in place and that all the permits were posted. I could see no fencing and no permits when I visited the site immediately after the flood.

Permit notices, such as these, should have been in place months earlier, but showed up just before the LJA inspection.
Silt fence along Woodland Hills in Kingwood was also missing at time of flood, but installed days before inspection.
Lack of protection around storm sewer allowed silt to enter drains near Woodland Hills Drive.
Looking south on Woodland Hills, you can see silt fence adjacent to road but none protecting Sherwood Trails in background.
Looking east along county line (southern border of development), you can see recently installed silt fence.
These rock baskets at the entrance to Taylor Gulley in Kingwood were installed just before the inspection to control erosion (visible in the background). They were not in place at the time of the flood on May 7.
Looking south toward Taylor Gulley from the concrete culvert above.
Interior portion of the site without silt fencing. Taylor Gulley lies between utility poles and tree line on the left.
Looking south along the Porter boundary. Yates property is on right. Lack of silt fencing and adequate drainage covered his property in muck.
Clean bill of health issued after reinspection on 6/5/2019.

As proof of compliance, LJA submitted these two before/after photo sequences. Neither sequence corresponded to the photos from May 15 where the inspector noted deficiencies. These “before” photos bear a different date: May 23. The second report above never mentions an inspection on May 23.

Conflict of Interest?

Both the developer and Montgomery County hired LJA Engineering independently:

  • Subsidiaries of Perry Homes (Figure Four Partners and PSWA) hired LJA to design the site and its detention ponds. AND…
  • Montgomery County hired LJA to investigate complaints about multiple construction sites throughout the county.

LJA did not see a conflict of interest. Nor did it recuse itself. Instead, it claimed that two different divisions of the company handled the contracts, therefore, there was no conflict.

However, the timing of the investigation by LJA raises questions. LJA gave Rebel Contractors time to install most of the pollution-prevention measures that they should have installed months earlier.

Questions of Conscience

At this point, after reviewing hundreds of photos and drone footage taken after the flood, I have several questions:

  • Why didn’t Rebel Contractors address these deficiencies before the May 7th flood?
  • Did an LJA engineer’s repeated references to “I can’t comment on anything that existed before the inspection” indicate that he was aware of violations?
  • If so, why didn’t he take action to correct them earlier?
  • Construction permits specify that an engineer was to be onsite. Why wasn’t the engineer monitoring compliance with the SWPPP all along?
  • Did LJA Engineers give contractors advance notice of the inspection and then delay it so that all involved could look less culpable?
  • Did any fines result from the SWPPP violations?
  • If so, did advance notice of the inspection allow LJA’s other client, Figure Four Partners, to minimize the amount of fines?

Hundreds of Elm Grove residents have sued the Woodridge developer and contractor, alleging negligence, gross negligence, and negligence per se. They deserve answers to these questions.

Copies of the SWPPP plans still have not been made public to see if other irregularities exist. LJA Engineering has not returned phone calls.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/10/2019

680 Days after Hurricane Harvey

All thoughts expressed in this post represent my opinions on matters of public interest and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the great State of Texas.

Invest 92L Now Offshore; First Hints of Circulation

Chances of Formation Increase to 70% in 2-Day Outlook

As of 2PM EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) again increased the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm. This morning, the two-day outlook said 50%. Now it’s 70%. The 5-day outlook remains at 80%. The animated GIF below shows the first hints of circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to fly into the storm tomorrow if necessary.

Since this morning, the chances of Invest 92L turning into a tropical storm have increased from 50% to 70% in the two-day outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Five-hour loop showing first hints of circulation offshore Florida Panhandle.

Center Now in Northeastern Gulf

According to the NHC, a broad low-pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and…

… a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy Rainfall Potential, But More to East

This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast. Continue to monitor the storm at least twice a day.

Uncertainty still high; track uncertain, though all models now suggest landfall east of Houston.

The satellite image below shows infrared imagery. Note how the moisture has built up in the eastern Gulf in the last three hours. It now occupies an area from south Louisiana to south Florida.

24-hour satellite infrared loop shows explosion of convection in northeastern Gulf.

Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7

Official:

National Hurricane Center

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

National Weather Service

Harris County Flood Warning System

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

USGS Water on the Go App

San Jacinto River Authority

Coastal Water Authority

Other:

Mikes Weather Page

Weather Nerds

Stay dry.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019 at 3:15pm

679 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tuesday AM Invest 92L Update: Chances of Tropical Formation Keep Increasing

The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.

Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.

Uncertainty Remains High at This Time

Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.

However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)

Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.

Suggested Actions

Your best bet is to:

  • Monitor forecasts twice a day
  • Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
  • Be ready to enact plans by the middle to end of this week
  • Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations

Graphical Predictions

From Mikes Weather Page as of Monday evening.
Numbers on each track indicate hours from 6 UTC, Tuesday morning. If the red model is correct, the storm would hit the Texas/Louisiana border by 6am Saturday morning.

Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7

Official:

National Hurricane Center

NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

National Weather Service

Harris County Flood Warning System

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

USGS Water on the Go App

San Jacinto River Authority

Coastal Water Authority

Other:

Mikes Weather Page

Weather Nerds

Good luck!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019

679 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week

The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

5-day outlook shows low pressure system tracking westward over warm Gulf waters.

Models Now Predict Westward Development

Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.

The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.

Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Formation chance in the next two days remains low at 10 percent, but increases to 80 percent in the 5-day outlook.

Likely Path

Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.

Intensity

“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.” 

What to Do Now

  • Closely monitor the progress of this system.
  • Check hurricane preparation kits and plans.
  • Be ready to enact those plans later this week.
  • Monitor weather forecasts closely.   

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019

678 Days since Hurricane Harvey