8/11/25 – The correlation between flood damage and flood-mitigation spending by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) keeps dropping, indicating an increasing influence of other factors, such as race, on spending.
At the end of 2021, the coefficient of correlation between flood-mitigation spending and flood damage was .84. Statisticians consider that a strong correlation.
By the end of Q1 2024, it had dropped to .67, a positive but moderate correlation.
By the end of Q2 2025, it had dropped further to .64.
What is Coefficient of Correlation?
Coefficient of correlation measures the strength of association between two variables, for instance hours spent studying and exam scores.
Statisticians consider a correlation of 1.0 extremely strong. It is the highest possible and means that for every unit of change in one variable, there is a corresponding unit of change in another. As the coefficient decreases, the strength of the relationship also decreases.
Values close to +1 or -1 (e.g., 0.7 to 0.9 or -0.7 to -0.9) indicate a strong relationship.
Values between 0.3 and 0.7 (or -0.3 and -0.7) suggest a moderate relationship.
Values below 0.3 (or -0.3) indicate a weak relationship.
Less than Half of HCFCD Spending Today Explained by Flood Damage
Squaring the coefficient of correlation yields the coefficient of determination. That tells you the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable that’s explained by the independent variable.
Squaring .64 yields 41%. So, flood damage today accounts for less than half of Harris County’s flood-mitigation spending.
Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis’ has relentlessly pushed variousprioritization formulas that rely increasingly on race while de-emphasizing damage and flood risk. In fact, his formula now totally ignores flood risk.
The major changes in his formula coincide with the drop in the correlation between flood damage and flood-mitigation spending. The 2022 Prioritization Framework marked the beginning of the huge drop in the correlation.
But in fairness, also understand that special circumstances may apply to investments, such as HCFCD’s Frontier Program. It buys land in developing watersheds for huge, regional detention basins, then sells capacity back to developers. Still…
Notice how the lines in the graph below diverge for some watersheds. Some have proportionally more dollars than damage and vice versa for others. Clearly, politics have skewed spending.
A higher correlation would show the two lines more closely matching each other.Also note that the damage figures include five major floods since 2001. They are extracted from HCFCD Federal Reports.
The watersheds where the two variables most greatly diverge reduce the coefficient of correlation.
Where does your watershed stand in the dollar derby? Do you think you’re getting your fair share?
Here are the actual dollars and damaged structures in a table format. The last column shows the dollars per damaged structure.
Coefficient based on Spending and Damage Columns.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2025
2904 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Corellation-Damage-Dollars.png?fit=2254%2C1354&ssl=113542254adminadmin2025-08-11 22:14:272025-08-12 12:37:00Correlation Between Flood Damage, Mitigation Spending Keeps Dropping
8/10/25 – A reader asked me, “How could the July 4 Guadalupe flood tragedy happen?”
He sent me an article that quoted an associate professor from Syracuse University who studied FEMA’s flood maps. The professor said that people knew Camp Mystic buildings were in the 100-year floodplain. Then she said, “It’s a mystery to me why they weren’t taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk…”
The good professor obviously doesn’t live in Texas. In the endless news coverage of the tragedy, some little known statistics have gone undiscussed. They put the Guadalupe tragedy in a larger context.
We also have 6,258 hospitals, emergency medical services, fire stations, police stations and schools in 1% annual chance floodplains. Camp Mystic is hardly alone.
One in Five Texans Lives in a Floodplain
The Texas State Flood Plan shows that 5,884,100 people live in Texas floodplains (100- and 500-year). The last full census shows that 29,145,505 people live in Texas. That means 20% of the state’s population lives in a floodplain. One in five people!
Only 2% of the people living in the Guadalupe River Basin live in floodplains. But 42% of all the people living in the San Jacinto watershed live in a floodplain.
Column 3 shows people living in 100-year floodplain (1% annual chance) and Column 4 shows the number in the 500-year (.2% annual chance) floodplain.The last column shows percentages of 5,884,100 that totals in the 100+500 column comprise.
And don’t forget, those numbers are all based on pre-Atlas 14 maps. Reportedly, Atlas-14 maps will show floodplains growing 50-100%. And Atlas-15 maps are already in the works. So, the numbers above understate the real dimensions of the problem.
In my opinion, the real question is not “How could the tragedy happen?” It’s “How could it NOT happen?”
Still, the professor raises a valid question.
Problems Don’t Get This Big By Accident
Why do so many Texans live in floodplains? A combination of things has created this perfect storm. Since starting this blog, I’ve written 2,876 articles about flooding. And I see certain recurrent themes:
Collectively, we have a bad case of willful blindness. Regulations don’t keep pace with reality. For instance, Montgomery County still hasn’t adopted updated drainage regulations which have been on the table for years.
People make bad home building and home buying decisions because of antiquated flood maps.
Flooding happens just infrequently enough that when something goes wrong, people can blame it on climate change or God.
Not all of these may apply to the Guadalupe river basin. But I’ve documented them multiple times in the San Jacinto basin. They form a starting point for investigation into the Guadalupe tragedy.
A Problem Too Big To Solve
At this point, in my opinion, the State’s flooding problem is too big to solve. The state flood plan comes with a $54 billion price tag. But we don’t have a dedicated source of funding to address the problems in it.
Worse, collectively we:
Keep kicking the can down the road by making endless plans to solve flooding, but rarely implementing them.
Don’t assume others will protect you. Protect yourself. Start by demanding accurate estimates of risk that we paid for a long time ago. That would at least make people aware of the flood risk they truly face. Then they can decide whether to take that risk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/2025
2903 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240815-Residential-Bldgs-in-1-percent-Floodpolain.jpg?fit=1100%2C833&ssl=18331100adminadmin2025-08-10 15:45:072025-08-10 22:42:37Guadalupe Flood Tragedy: How Could It NOT Happen?
In late July, the U.S. House of Representatives Transportation and Infrastructure Committee introduced a bipartisan FEMA-reform bill.
Committee leaders say it “provides the most robust legislative reform of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and federal disaster assistance programs in decades.”
The Fixing Emergency Management for Americans (FEMA) Act of 2025 (H.R. 4669) was introduced after feedback the Committee received on the draft from Members of Congress and the emergency management stakeholder community.
The Committee hopes Congress will take the bill up when it returns from its August recess.
Streamlining Disaster Response and Recovery
According to the Committee, the FEMA Act streamlines the federal government’s disaster response and recovery programs while also making FEMA a cabinet-level agency once again, directly accountable to the President.
Sponsors say the bill rewards effective state and local preparedness, protects taxpayers, cuts red tape, and ensures that relief efforts are fast, fair, and free from political bias.
“The American people need an emergency management system that works quickly and effectively, not one that makes disaster recovery more difficult,” said Committee Chairman Rep. SamGraves of Missouri.
“But time and time again, we’ve heard the same story from state and local officials, emergency managers, and disaster victims,” said Graves. The federal process is too slow, complicated, and disconnected from the realities on the ground. Communities trying to rebuild are forced to navigate a maze of complicated rules, conflicting timelines, and mountains of burdensome paperwork.”
Comments from Both Sides of Aisle
He added, “FEMA is in need of serious reform, and the goal of the FEMA Act of 2025 is to fix it. This bill does more than any recent reforms to cut through the bureaucracy, streamline programs, provide flexibility, and return FEMA to its core purpose of empowering the states to lead and coordinating the federal response when it’s needed.”
Ranking Member Rick Larsen from Washingtonsaid. “This bipartisan bill will make FEMA stronger and more efficient, giving it the tools it needs to provide relief to disaster-impacted communities.”
Rep. Daniel Webster from Florida said, “I know firsthand the damage that hurricanes and natural disasters bring, and how important effective preparation, response and relief is when tragedy strikes. By streamlining FEMA and cutting red tape, we ensure that federal disaster response is faster, more efficient, and accountable to the American people.”
“FEMA’s mission is to help Americans in their darkest hour,” said Rep. Greg Stanton of Arizona. “The solution is not to tear FEMA down – it’s to work across the aisle to build FEMA up. This bipartisan bill takes common-sense steps to streamline the agency and make sure communities get disaster assistance quickly, efficiently and fairly.”
Restores FEMA’s original status as an independent agency.
It would report directly to the President and be overseen by its own inspector general. Returning FEMA to a Cabinet-level agency will empower the Administrator to lead a coordinated, government-wide response to disasters.
Puts disaster-impacted states in the driver’s seat
It would help dollars reach communities faster, inject common sense, and cut red tape that can drag out disaster recovery for decades. It would speed up rebuilding with faster, project-based grants. States could prioritize the highest need projects, without waiting years for reimbursement.
The bill would also incentivize states to make their own investments in mitigation, rainy-day funds, and private insurance policies.
This legislation also reforms federal permitting and procurement processes to speed up rebuilding projects and eliminate unnecessary delays.
Helps disaster aid work better for survivors, while saving taxpayer dollars
Disaster survivors will complete a single, streamlined application when applying for assistance, significantly reducing the paperwork burden.
FEMA must provide clear, understandable notices to disaster survivors, ending the confusion caused by complex and jargon-filled denial letters.
The Act alsoremoves disincentives that discourage donations from charities, so more non-federal support is available for disaster survivors. And it gives states more flexibility to determine the best emergency housing solutions.
Strengthens efforts to protect communities before a disaster occurs
The FEMA Act 2025 overhauls FEMA’s existing mitigation framework.
States can pre-vet mitigation projects through a peer-review process to speed up funding when disaster strikes and combine funds from federal programs to expedite the completion of critical projects.
The Act also clarifies building code requirements, so states can tailor standards to the hazards they face. And it encourages homeowners to invest in cost-effective mitigation improvements to reduce long-term disaster costs.
Prevents politicization of disaster aid and demands greater transparency and accountability from FEMA
The Act strictly prohibits any political discrimination in providing disaster recovery assistance. And it would create a public website that tracks disaster spending nationwide.
It would also eliminate outdated, conflicting, and unnecessary rules and regulations.
And it would assess: disaster fraud risks related to insurance coverage, identify theft, public alerting systems, and cost savings associated with the reforms in the discussion draft.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2025
2902 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/HumbleFloodFromHCFCD-e1761946748900.jpg?fit=1100%2C821&ssl=18211100adminadmin2025-08-09 18:30:522025-08-10 17:34:56Bipartisan FEMA-Reform Bill Introduced in U.S. House
8/8/25 – The Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin at FM1960 and the Hardy Tollroad along Cypress Creek illustrates the difficulty HCFCD will face as it attempts to build 11 comparable basins in the next year and a half.
The Mercer Basin, originally projected to take one year – on an expedited schedule – has taken more than two years already and is still many more months from completion.
If HCFCD maintains that pace for the other basins, it could miss a critical U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development deadline.
One (Arbor Oaks) is already in construction. But ten more projects valued at $289 million remain to be bid. Is there enough time to complete them before HUD’s immovable February 28, 2027, deadline?
The next ten basins don’t have 2.5 years. So unless HCFCD picks up its pace, low-to-moderate income areas across Harris County could lose a quarter billion dollars in funding. They can’t afford that.
Neither can areas like Lake Houston. Because Commissioners Court will start cancelling projects here to divert funds to the areas that lost grants.
Huge Difference Between Original and Actual Timeline
At 512 acre feet, the Mercer Basin is slightly larger than average. Construction experts tell me that a basin that size should take a year to build. And, in fact, that was the estimate Rodney Ellis gave a community meeting.
But the project slid from the git-go. The county didn’t advertise it to potential bidders until 8/4/23. Then it took HCFCD four months to select a winning bid and issue a “notice to proceed” to the contractor.
Photos Taken 8/8/25 Show Construction Still Far From Complete
And the job, which was supposed to be finished a year ago this week, is still in construction. Worse, construction may not finish this year, according to a contractor I talked to who saw the pictures below.
Looking W at South Mercer detention basin at FM1960 and Hardy. FM1960 on left. Looking S toward FM1960 at same basin. Hardy Tollroad in upper right.Looking N at balancing culvert between two Mercer basinsNorth basin is closer to completion but still not done.It appears contractors are still installing backslope interceptor swales and drain pipes.Looking S at both basins with Cypress Creek snaking through frame from right to left.
Mercer Took 2X Longer than Predicted – So Far
From the invitation to bid to today has been 735 days – five days more than 2 years!
Even if all CDBG-DR projects in play went out for bids tomorrow, only 569 days remain until the ultimate, immovable deadline of Feb. 28, 2027. Even worse…
According to HCFCD’s latest bid schedule, 8 of 10 projects on HUD’s list won’t even go out for bid for another 2 to 10 months.
Mercer should have taken a year to finish from the invitation to bid, but has taken two years and could take another half year.
The other DR projects will have 18 months, but could take another 2 to 10 months before they even start bidding.
You can see the concerns. No margin for error. No weather delays allowed. And HCFCD still might not have enough time to complete projects.
George P. Bush announced this money was coming to Harris County more than four years ago when he was still commissioner of the Texas General Land Office. It took HCFCD (and the Harris County Community Services Department) four years to figure out how they wanted to spend the money he allocated. Now they’re leaving 18 months or less to actually build the projects.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/8/2025
2901 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250808-DJI_20250808115626_0074_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2025-08-08 20:41:442025-08-09 07:09:32Mercer Basin Illustrates Risks of HCFCD Slowdown for Quarter Billion in HUD Funding
8/7/25 – Lina Hidalgo threw another temper tantrum in Commissioners Court today, left and never returned. She also received a censure from her colleagues, the commissioners.
Worse, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) seems adrift. Current HCFCD leadership seems to have no sense of urgency. Eight years after Harvey, less than a quarter of flood-bond IDs have been completed. And once again, despite tight deadlines that could mean the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, HCFCD brought no construction or capital improvement contracts to Court today for approval or even bidding.
Flood Control Slowdown
Eight years ago this month, Hurricane Harvey struck Harris County. It caused an estimated $125 billion dollars of damage. It dramatized our vulnerability and the need for improvements in flood control.
To address those needs, voters approved a $2.5 billion bond. Partners pledged another $2.7 billion.
Out of that money, HCFCD still has $3 billion waiting to build scores of projects. Yet…
Not one construction bid was brought to Commissioners Court for approval today.
Ability to Deliver Projects At Critical Time In Doubt
In the seven years since passage of the flood bond in 2018, HCFCD has completed only 43 of 181 Bond IDs. And yet, see what HCFCD asked for in Commissioner’s Court today. It’s typical of recent meetings.
Today’s agenda provides a glimpse of HCFCD’s ability to deliver projects and its priorities. Forty-two Flood-Control-related items were listed.
I summarized today’s flood-related agenda items below under their agenda category headings.
#13 – Approval of a methodology for charging indirect costs
#17 – Budget transfers
County Engineer
#24 – A 2-acre easement
#25 – A 15-acre easement
#53 – An agreement with a MUD to build a pedestrian bridge across a channel
#155 – Correction to a deed
#156 – Correction to another deed
Flood Control District
#157 – Mowing agreement with a MUD
#158 – Trail maintenance agreement with a MUD
#159 – Mowing reimbursement for a MUD
#160 – Landscaping maintenance agreement for one residential lot
#161 – Abandon an easement
#162 – Abandon another easement
#163 – Engineering agreement to re-certify a levee
#164 – Change order adding 120 days to a maintenance agreement
Economic Equity and Opportunity
#172 – Letter of non-objection for a foreign trade zone
Auditor
#270 – Approval of payroll
Purchasing
#289 – Bid approval for erosion and slope repair
#300 – Vision insurance for next calendar year
#301 – Dental insurance for next calendar year
#305 – Life insurance for next calendar year
#306 – Disability insurance for next calendar year
#314 – Pest management services
#315 – Tree removal services
#319 – Group medical insurance for next year
#339 – Change in contract amount for channel repair job
#356 – Inventory adjustment
Precinct 1
#366 – Maintenance agreement with City of Houston for detention basin
Transmittals
#451 – Transmittal of tax rate
#452 – Advertisement of channel-repair project
#456 – Tree-trimming and tree-removal contract
#460 – Mowing contract
Executive Session
#476 – Flood Control’s nominee for Appraisal District
Emergency/Supplemental Items
#490 – Contract with corrugated metal pipe provider
#491 – Repair contract for South Harris County
#492 – Channel rehab
#502 – Contract to supply modular buildings
#510 – Vehicle leases
#520 – Flood-bond update discussion (requested by Ramsey)
#521 – Flood-control maintenance discussion (also requested by Ramsey)
A Crisis of Leadership
Harris County government under the current administration has slowed to a crawl. Taxes go up. Yet delivery of service is down. Instead of doing more with less, Lina Hidalgo is doing less with more.
We have a crisis of leadership that started with a brain drain when political appointees under Lina Hidalgo replaced experienced, professional department heads.
Then despite performance issues, many of those new heads were given massive pay increases. For instance, HCFCD’s new department head received a raise of almost $90,000 per year despite declining performance.
So, who is pushing projects ahead? It’s certainly not the county judge. She blew another gasket today. It was an embarrassing meltdown of epic proportions…shocking even by Harris-County standards.
At approximately 6:45 PM, Precinct 3 Commissioner Ramsey initiated a discussion of Rules of Conduct at Decorum during Commissioners Court Meetings.
Immediately after the members present adopted the rules, Ramsey made a second motion to censure Lina Hidalgo for her tantrum today and a previous use of profanity when children were present. That motion also passed. In legislative terms, a censure is a formal reprimand or strong rebuke of a member’s conduct or character.
Ramsey Addresses HCFCD Issues
Just before executive session Ramsey also addressed issues at HCFCD and the progress of projects. He specifically mentioned that no construction or capital improvement projects were on the agenda today, and requested an update from HCFCD on when projects were going out for bid.
Ramsey also reminded people that HCFCD promised to come back to court in September with details about what could and couldn’t be done within the available time and budget, and what would have to be phased.
Ramsey concluded with an admonishment. “We have some real severe deadlines that we’ve got to meet,” he said.
The sad thing is that by the time the next election rolls around, hundreds of millions of dollars in HUD funding could be off the table. It’s not gone yet. But the County needs to solve its leadership crisis if it ever hopes to reduce flood risk with that money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2025
2900 days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250807-Hidalgo-Unhinged.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2025-08-07 19:22:162025-08-07 23:04:02Leadership Crisis in Harris County Government
8/6/25 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has initiated a large-scale study called SAFER that will involve 11 of the county’s 23 watersheds and benefit two others – Addicks and Barker.
SAFER stands for “Solutions for Advancing Floodplain Evaluation and Resilience.” The map below shows the study area. The study does not include the northern and eastern portions of the county.
This six-minute video explains the scope, goals and timetable of the study. (And it prominently mentions flood tunnels.) However, it also mentions integrating those with other flood-mitigation solutions.
Target: Federal Funding
A study of this scope is much broader than normal. One of the major goals is to achieve federal funding. Toward that end, the study is targeting Congresses annual Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) in 2028 as the deadline.
HCFCD is following a rigorous process outlined in Section 203 of WRDA that allows local agencies to follow Army Corps procedures and qualify for federal funding at the end of the road, as if the Corps had developed the study.
The goal: to make the county more resilient to future flood events.
Disciplined Process
The process will help ensure the U.S. Congress approves the SAFER Study recommendations, which will require large-scale federal funding to implement.
The study will evaluate established flood risk reduction measures, such as increasing channel capacity and constructing stormwater detention basins, as well as large-scale stormwater tunnels.
While the SAFER Study is a new feasibility study, it builds on current Flood Control District initiatives and data-driven projects already completed. This includes current and past capital projects, MAAPnext (ongoing) and completed investigations of stormwater conveyance tunnels.
The SAFER study will result in a Draft Feasibility Report that evaluates the costs, benefits, and viability of proposed flood-risk management solutions. The accompanying Environmental Impact Statement, led by USACE, will assess any potential environmental impacts of the proposed solutions.
Estimated Timeline
Key milestones include:
Public scoping meetings in summer 2025
Development and evaluation of alternatives through 2026
The release of a Draft Feasibility Report and Draft Environmental Impact Statement in 2026–2027
HCFCD hopes to submit the Final Report to the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works in 2027 and secure Congressional funding the following year.
Upcoming Virtual Meetings
HCFCD will hold community engagement meetings in each phase. Two upcoming virtual meetings will give you a chance to comment:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250624-SAFER-Study-Area.jpg?fit=1100%2C705&ssl=17051100adminadmin2025-08-06 14:31:082025-08-06 14:37:37HCFCD SAFER Study will Cover Half of Harris County
8/5/25 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has released a high-level white paper on a flood-tunnel pilot program that could cost several billion dollars.
The 15-page white paper lays out a starting point for implementation of the 1,860-page Phase II engineering study released by Black & Veatch in March 2022.
The pilot project would do several things:
Give HCFCD experience with tunnels before full-scale implementation
Create institutional knowledge throughout several Harris County departments (flood control, purchasing, engineering, etc.)
Start reducing flood risk right away
Document proof of concept to help obtain state and federal funding for additional tunnels
Conceptual Overview
Tunnels are a proven concept to help reduce flooding. They have helped other cities, such as San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Chicago, Washington DC and more.
In Houston, 10-40-foot tunnels placed 50-100 feet underground could reduce the load on creeks and bayous without the need to purchase large amounts of real-estate. Nor would tunnels displace families or businesses.
They might not provide enough capacity to handle a large river, such as the San Jacinto, but they could reportedly make a dent in flooding along smaller creeks and bayous, especially those with dense populations.
Some rights-of-way would require acquisition for intakes, shafts and outfalls, plus subterranean easements.
Total cost of each tunnel would depend on diameter and length.
Primary Recommendations
According to the white paper, Harris County Commissioners Court expressed interest in pursuing two pilot projects:
One would cross Greens, Halls and Hunting watersheds.
The second would run along Buffalo Bayou and help drain Addicks and Barker Reservoirs.
Each would outfall in the Ship Channel near the turning basin and exceed 18 miles in length.
And each could also someday form the “trunk” of a tunnel network that branches out into surrounding areas. So, they could provide both immediate and future benefits.
Other Conceptual Alternatives
The white paper also outlines four other shorter/narrower tunnels that could help reduce flooding. They are primarily in areas that already have stormwater detention basins but inadequate channel conveyance between them. These alternatives include:
Brickhouse Gully from Bingle to TC Jester Park
Halls Bayou from Keith Weiss Park to the Hall Park detention basin east of 59 near the Fiesta.
Hunting Bayou from Lockwood to Buffalo Bayou
Little Cypress Creek for three miles from Cypress Rose Hill Road to the Gulf Club at Longwood
Each of these alternatives is conceptual and would require further study. Initial cost estimates range from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Timing
Pre-construction planning (including preliminary engineering, final design, environmental permitting, right-of-way acquisition, and bidding) could easily take 4-6 years. Construction could take another 2-4 years. So think of tunnels as roughly a decade-long endeavor.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250805-Buffalo-Tunnel.jpg?fit=1100%2C846&ssl=18461100adminadmin2025-08-05 18:01:092025-08-05 18:01:26HCFCD Releases White Paper on Flood-Tunnel Pilot Program
8/4/2025 – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) has unveiled a ten-year flood-mitigation plan for the river basin. For the most part, it’s built around continuations of previous efforts. Regardless, it’s interesting to see what SJRA hopes to focus on in the future.
The plan contains eight main elements:
Spring Creek Watershed Flood-Control Dams Feasibility Study
Upper San Jacinto River Basin Sedimentation Study
Lake Conroe/Lake Houston Joint Reservoir Operations Study
San Jacinto River and Tributaries Sediment Removal and Sand Trap Development
Previously, the SJRA identified two potential sites for flood-control dams in the upper Spring Creek watershed. The sites included properties along Birch and Walnut Creeks. One of the sites subsequently was sold for a solar farm. However, SJRA believes it only needs a small portion of that property. It has budgeted money to buy that property and relocate some of the solar panels.
Matt Barrett, SJRA Flood Management Division Manager said, “We believe it is still a feasible site if we can identify a project sponsor to own and maintain the dam/reservoir.”
Currently, SJRA is seeking partners who could help fund land acquisition, construction and maintenance.
As with many of these items, SJRA emphasizes that it only has money for planning, coordination and project leadership, but not actual execution. For that, it must rely on grants.
Upper Basin Sedimentation Study
SJRA started this project several years ago also. The presentation shows them wrapping up their sedimentation study next year. They intend to rank order and develop an implementation plan for all projects that they have identified to date.
When last I checked, the City planned to adjust the number of gates to fit available funding. Once the release capacity has been locked down, engineers can develop:
An inflow forecasting tool for Lake Houston
Gate operations policies
Feasibility of pre-releases at either or both reservoirs
Risk evaluations in different weather scenarios.
SJRA hopes to complete this project by 2028.
Sediment Removal and Sand Trap Development
This project started in 2020 and identified a test site near the Hallett mine on the San Jacinto West Fork. SJRA wanted the site to be near a mine so miners could remove accumulated sediment from the sand trap once it filled up.
However, after the site was identified, the recommended site was subsequently cut off by a “pit capture.” The river is now flowing through the Hallett pit rather than around it.
The question in my mind is whether the pit walls can be hardened or vegetated somehow to let the exposed pit function as the sand trap.
SJRA hopes to work with a consultant to simplify the design and reduce costs for all involved. They see project completion in 2028.
Waller County Flood Mapping
SJRA hopes to obtain a grant from the Texas Flood Infrastructure Fund to update Waller County’s flood maps to Atlas 14 standards. This project could go through 2029 and cost $7 million.
Upper-Basin Dual-Purpose Reservoir
This is one of the most exciting elements of the 10-year plan. This feasibility study would determine the most viable location for a new lake/reservoir in the upper river basin that could mitigate flooding and supply water.
The study will look at a number of constraints and work with stakeholders, such as the US Forest Service.
Depending on the feasibility of the ultimate recommendation, it could replace a number of preliminary recommendations from the River Basin Master Drainage Plan developed several years ago. The study would go through 2029.
A new dual-purpose reservoir could be sited north of Lake Conroe or in the East Fork Watershed.
Rain/Stream Gage Installation
SJRA, working with counties, precincts, and other local governments, has identified 48 locations for rain/stream gages across the upper river basin. SJRA has incorporated all of them in the Regional Flood Plan.
As funding becomes available, they would be constructed. SJRA projects this project could last through 2032.
Miscellaneous
In the latter phases of the 10-year plan, SJRA is reserving some money for miscellaneous projects that arise through 2035. They might be small scale follow-up studies or facilitation of major construction projects – when/if they come to pass.
8/3/2025 – HCFCD is running out of time to bid and complete Community Development Block Grant Disaster Relief projects before a firm and looming deadline. The county could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in aid if it misses the deadline. Yet, it won’t even bid most of the projects for months.
Where Has the Time Gone?
Former Texas General Land Office Commissioner George P. Bush first announced hundreds of millions of dollars in HUD Community Development Block Grant funds for Harris County in May 2021. But it took Harris County almost four years – until January 25, 2025 – to finalize its list of projects for GLO approval.
While it took Harris County years to develop its list, it took the GLO approximately four months to review and approve 10 of the ll disaster-relief (DR) projects on it. DR projects all have a tight, firm deadline of February 28, 2027 – just 19 months away.
But subtract from those 19 months three to six months for bidding and mobilizing a project. Also subtract another two months for closing it out and turning in all the billing. That means you’re losing another five to eight months out of the 19 months. But some of these jobs could take years to complete.
The Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Program, for instance, is huge. It could require several years to build according to one construction expert I consulted.
In September, 2023, HCFCD held a press conference celebrating the funding of the TC Jester Stormwater Detention Basins. But that won’t even go out for bids until the fourth quarter of this year.
And even though it’s not part of the DR package below, another project is also illuminating. HCFCD awarded the bid on the Mercer Basin construction contract on August 4, 2023. It’s comparable in size to many of these projects and construction is still not finished.
Only One Project Bid So Far
So far, HCFCD has announced only one bid award among the group of 11 CDBG-DR projects. That’s for the Arbor Oaks detention basin on White Oak Bayou. And that should begin construction any day now if it hasn’t already.
It typically takes three to six months from when HCFCD first advertises a project until the winning bidder starts turning dirt. For instance, the county’s purchasing database shows that HCFCD advertised Arbor Oaks beginning April 18, 2025 – 3.5 months ago.
Using these examples as barometers, HCFCD will have little time to complete some of the jobs above. And the county could lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
Who’s to Blame?
We haven’t lost the money yet. But when/if the house of cards collapses on itself, I suspect the head of HCFCD and the county officials who hired her will start pointing fingers at each other.
Shortly after Dr. Tina Petersen took over as Executive Director of HCFCD, I had a prophetic lunch with her. She told me how she wanted to slow things down and become “more intentional” about the way HCFCD did business. And did she ever slow things down!
The previous management team executed projects at twice the speed she is.
Adjusted for inflation, she’s now spending at a rate lower than before the 2018 flood bond, with billions at her fingertips.
She lost seasoned professionals and replaced them in many cases with political hacks.
And she has refused to tap knowledgeable resources in the local engineering community that could have helped her.
Lest this sound like a totally self-inflicted wound, commissioners court sat back and tolerated delays even when she missed deadline after deadline for explanations about a $1.3 billion shortfall in the 2018 bond program and whether CDBG projects were in danger. And in the “mixed-message” department, Commissioners gave her an almost $90,000 raise to $434,000 per year…shortly after publicly lambasting her performance in commissioners court.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/2025
2896 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/DR-Bid-Schedule-.png?fit=1980%2C760&ssl=17601980adminadmin2025-08-03 22:23:352025-08-03 23:47:54Can HCFCD Finish DR Projects Worth $323 Million Before Deadline?
8/1/2025 – After a month of supposedly working to restore conveyance of blocked culverts under Kingwood Drive, the culverts remain blocked and crews seem in no hurry to remove the sediment. They may be disputing whether they were hired to do that.
City Met With Community Representatives in June
Five weeks ago, on 6/24/2025, representatives of the Houston City Council District E office, Houston Public Works, Kings Forest and the Bear Branch Trail Association met to discuss clearing a ditch that had not been cleaned out for more than 20 years.
The ditch cuts through Kings Forest between Valley Manor and Twin Grove, next to Kingwood High School. Then it crosses under Kingwood Drive and empties into Kingwood Lake.
Looking north up the ditch from over Kingwood Drive.
However, after a full month, the contractor has yet to address the ditch itself, especially the critical blocked culverts under Kingwood Drive. And crews appear to be on hold. Activity has virtually ceased.
Confusion Re: Scope of Work
In talking with the contractor and the City, it has become clear that there is a misunderstanding regarding the project scope. No one at the City will send me the scope document or a contract outlining responsibilities despite repeated requests – both in person and via email. And the contractor keeps saying, “Talk to the City.”
The best I’ve been able to get is a suggestion that the scope may have been “vague.” Meanwhile, equipment has been mostly idle for two weeks.
The contractor has seven work days left before school starts on August 13. At that point, the logistics of working around thousands of high school students will make the work infinitely more complicated because of the need to close down at least one lane of Kingwood Drive.
Blockages Under Kingwood Drive Remain
Restoring conveyance will require removing lots of muck from areas around the culverts and in the median itself.
North of the westbound lanes on Kingwood Drive, culverts are half blocked with sediment. See below.
Entry to culverts leading to median. Water drains toward top of frame.Exit from same culverts. Looking N across median toward westbound Kingwood Drive.Looking S again at opposite side of median. Eastbound lanesin distance.
Clearly, plenty of sediment must be removed before conveyance of the culverts is fully restored. Based on the photos above, I estimate conveyance has been reduced 50 percent.
Half of Outfall Blockage Remains
The first photo below shows what the outfall on the south side of Kingwood Drive looked like before the start of work at the end of June. The second shows what it looked like today.
Before start of project on 6/29/25. Today.
Comparing the pre- and post shots, it appears that the contractor removed half the sediment blocking the outfall. One of the workers told me they intended to finish this portion of the job. However, he didn’t know what they intend to do about the median and culverts. He also said they had finished removing brush.
Waiting On…?
For the past few days, I’ve seen unmarked contractor vehicles parked next to the job site. Periodically, someone leaves one and walks into the woods. One even sat in the excavator above while I photographed it.
But as of quitting time today, the excavator had not moved. I went back and checked it three hours later.
To my knowledge, it has not moved for several days. It’s hard to imagine why workers would go to work and not work.
City Council Member Fred Flickinger has vowed to find out next week whether the City is being billed for downtime.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/25
2894 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/20250801-DSC_3064-2.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2025-08-01 18:38:402025-08-02 10:49:44After Five Weeks, Culverts under Kingwood Drive Still Clogged
