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Explanation of Toth’s Negative Votes on Dredging Bills Not Supported by Evidence

7/28/2025 – State Representative Steve Toth has announced a bid to unseat U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw in next year’s Republican primary. While Crenshaw helped secure more than $120 million dollars for dredging in the Lake Houston Area after Harvey to reduce flood risk, Toth voted against bills to create a Lake Houston Dredging District THREE times in five years.

Toth claims that the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF), a powerful Republican think tank, was “also against the bill.” However, a search of the TPPF website turned up no mention of any of the three bills. They included:

HB 2525 in 2021 (by former State Rep. Dan Huberty)
HB 5341 in 2023 (by current State Rep. Charles Cunningham)
HB 1532 in 2025 (also by Cunningham)

I searched the TPPF website for each of the bill numbers (with and without spaces and hyphens). I also searched it for key words such as “dredging” and “Lake Houston.” None of the searches turned up any mention of any of the bills. Moreover, neither of the bills’ authors could recall TPPF taking a stance for or against the bill(s), nor could their chiefs of staff.

Likewise, neither Google, nor ChatGPT, found any public records indicating that TPPF adopted a position against the creation of a Lake Houston Dredging District.

Witness Lists Don’t Support Toth Claim Either

The list of witnesses who addressed the House Natural Resources Committee on HB 2525 in 2021 shows no one from the TPPF. Ditto for the Senate testimony.

I could find only two public comments in 2023 – both written and neither from TPPF.

The same holds true for HB 1532 in 2025. No comments from TPPF in the House, nor in the Senate!

The only people who ever testified against any of the three versions of the Dredging District bills represented water authorities, not TPPF.

Error-Ridden Defense of Negative Votes

A close examination of Rep. Toth’s defense of his negative votes shows other troubling issues, too. See below.

Five Issues in Six Sentences

In the six full sentences above, I quickly spotted five major issues.

#1 – I can find no public records of TPPF being against any of the dredging bills as discussed above.
#2 – “One more taxing agency.” The 2025 version of the bill (HB 1532) that became law states explicitly that the dredging district cannot levy taxes. Do you really want a representative who doesn’t read the legislation he’s voting on?
#3 – SJRA responsible for Kingwood flooding? It was a combination of factors. Lack of dredging for decades reduced the conveyance of the West Fork by up to 15 feet. That’s why we need regular dredging as the Army Corps recommended.
#4 – Even if TPPF was against the bill, who cares? Toth is running to represent tens of thousands of Lake Houston Area residents and business people that flooded – not the TPPF. Do you really want a representative who votes against the needs of constituents to curry favor with a think tank in Austin that doesn’t even list flooding as an issue it cares about?
#5 – If the TPPF was against the 2025 bill, why did so many Republicans vote for it? It passed the House by 114 to 19 and the Senate by 30 to 1.

Mr. Toth certainly doesn’t inspire my trust.

No Reply from Toth Yet

Johnna Wells, the lady who elicited the response above from Rep. Toth has invited him to come to Kingwood and address voters on these issues. He indicated a willingness to talk to her, but wouldn’t say when.

In the hall of mirrors that political discourse has become in recent years, it’s important to verify the claims you hear or see.

If Mr. Toth wishes to respond to the observations in this post, I will be happy to print his point of view. But he must start with who at TPPF came out against the bill. What did they say? When? And where? And how can it be verified?

What started out as unexplained votes has quickly morphed into a major trust issue.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/28/2025

2990 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

West Fork Dredging Contract Complete, But Job Far from Over

7/27/25 – Callan Marine is done with its City of Houston West Fork dredging contract. The contract used the last of the FEMA money that U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped obtain for dredging the West Fork Mouth Bar and the surrounding area after Harvey.

The City hired Callan to dredge 800,000 cubic yards from the San Jacinto West Fork between Kings Point, Atascocita and FM1960. But even though that contract is now complete, the need for dredging is far from over. Let me explain.

Pictures Taken Today

The General Pershing, Callan’s dredge was docked today on the east side of Lake Houston, just south of FM1960.

*Miles of massive dredge pipe used in the operation were pulled onshore, waiting for removal.*

*The placement area next to the Luce Bayou Inter-Basin Transfer Canal was vacant. Callan had removed all of its equipment.*

*The gates that let return-water out of the placement area had been removed (lower right).*

*The return-water channel from the placement area was filled in. Straw had been placed across the filled channel to retard erosion.*

*Callan filled the area inside the perimeter berms* *almost completely.*

But just upstream from from where the dredging took place, the West Fork is already filling in again near the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge.

need for more dredging — *The area near Kings Harbor is only 1-2 feet deep.* *The Army Corps dredged this area just a few years ago.*

*Not many people will be tying their boats up here near Raffa’s.*

Dredging complete — *Farther upstream, it’s the same story. Boaters told me today the outfall of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (shown above) is only about 6″ to a 1′ deep at River Grove Park.*

Ironically, the Army Corps liberated River Grove from a giant sand build up just a few years ago. Remember what this area looked like then? See below.

River Grove Sand Bar — *Same area in 2018 before Army Corps dredging. An estimated 500+ homes above this point flooded during Harvey.*

Sediment buildups like these reduced the conveyance of both the East and West Forks by 15 feet in places.

*Another massive build up less than a half mile downstream from River Grove took the Corps months to dredge.*

The Would-Be Congressman Who Denies Need for Dredging

Reducing flood risk in the Lake Houston Area requires reducing sediment build ups like these. Before the Corps left the West Fork, it recommended setting up a maintenance dredging program to help prevent such massive buildups in the future.

Following the Corps’ lead, former State Rep. Dan Huberty tried to set up such a program in 2021. So did State Rep. Charles Cunningham in 2023. Cunningham finally succeeded this year when HB1532 became law.

And yet a person upstream who wants to represent the Lake Houston Area in Congress, State Representative Steve Toth, voted against Cunningham’s Dredging District bill. And now he’s challenging Crenshaw.

I have yet to hear a credible explanation as to why Toth voted against the dredging district bill and the needs of the people he hopes to represent. Perhaps he would care to go on the record.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/25

2889 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Take Regional Flood Survey Now, Deadline Fast Approaching

7/25/2025 – The San Jacinto Flood Planning Group is fielding a brief regional flood survey that will be used to help judge public priorities for the next round in the development of the State’s Flood Plan. Your last chance to take the survey is August 1, 2025.

But don’t wait. Take it now while this post and the link are in front of you. It will only take a few minutes and your suggestions could help reduce your flood risk.

About the State Flood Plan

In 2019, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill 8 directing the creation of the first-ever state flood plan for Texas. The state flood plan brings together the findings of the 15 river-basin-based regional flood plans and makes legislative and floodplain management recommendations to guide state, regional, and local flood control policy.

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) adopted Texas’ inaugural State Flood Plan on August 15th, 2024. Now we’re into the next cycle of the plan, which will be updated every five years.

So here’s your chance to sound off about everything you’ve learned in the last five years. The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group covers more than 5,000 square miles in 11 counties.

Here’s the start page to take the survey.

After some location and contact questions, the survey will ask you some pretty high level questions, i.e., “What do we need?”

I said, “We need river-basin-wide flood control districts. Otherwise, we’ll never be able to solve flooding that originates across county lines.”

Others knowledgeable about flooding problems in Texas said we need:

A guaranteed amount of funding for the plan – every year or at least every legislative session – to facilitate planning better.
A statewide program in every school to teach students about flood risk – before they buy their first home.

Whatever your suggestions, make sure you submit your regional flood survey by August 1, 2025. Better yet, do it now so you don’t forget.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/25/2025

2887 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Five Highly-Volatile-Liquid Pipelines Exposed at Triple PG Mine on Caney Creek

7/24/25 – Five pipelines carrying highly volatile liquids (HVLs) have become exposed and undermined by erosion associated with sand-mining activity near Caney Creek in Porter. Some of the pipelines have been shored up. Others hang suspended in mid-air. See below.

*Exposed pipelines at northern end of Triple PG property near Caney Creek*

*Reverse angle shows proximity to Caney Creek in foreground.*

*Side shot gives better view of utility-easement erosion at northern part of mine.*

This is not the miner’s first tangle with pipelines. In 2020, miners exposed a Kinder Morgan Natural Gas pipeline in the same general area. That forced Kinder Morgan to abandon its line and drill a new one 75 feet beneath the mine.

The Triple PG daredevils had been pushing the safety envelope by trying to mine sand between the pipelines.

From Railroad Commission website in August 2021. Note how miners had started mining past Kinder Morgan pipeline on bottom. Compare this with photos above taken today that show pipelines exposed where clustered green lines are.

The exposed HVL pipelines observed today are part of a pattern at this mine. But it’s not the only dangerous pattern, in my opinion.

Attorney General Lawsuit on Behalf of TCEQ

Back in 2019, breaches of two dikes at the same mine were left open for months. The mines released process wastewater through those breaches into the headwaters of Lake Houston for months. They also let White Oak Creek flow through the Triple PG sand mine (now operated by Texas Frac Sand Materials, Inc.) directly into Caney Creek.

Both White Oak and Caney Creeks flow into the San Jacinto East Fork and the headwaters of Lake Houston, which supplies drinking water for 2.2 million people.

The Texas Attorney General filed a lawsuit on behalf of the TCEQ. An injunction forced the miners to close the breaches and reinforce the dikes.

The lawsuit sought $1,000,000 in penalties plus $25,000 for each day violations continued.

The dikes were originally repaired. But in August 2024, I photographed the same dikes…ruptured again in the same places. They still haven’t been fixed. Here’s how they looked today.

*Looking N. from over Hueni Road. White Oak Creek (left) flows into and through Triple PG property.*

*Still looking N but farther east, water flows out of the mine into Caney Creek* *(right of mine).* *Lake Houston is behind camera position.*

Original Case Delayed Six Years

Legal maneuverings and a change in ownership of the mine through a series of shell companies and trust funds have delayed the original lawsuit for six years in Travis County courts. See Case No. D-1-GN-19-007086.

Texas Frac Sand Materials now operates the mine even though Dr. Prabhakar R. Guniganti and his family still own the property. See the Montgomery County Appraisal District record below for the part of the mine with the five exposed HVL pipelines.

*MoCo Appraisal District record shows 1992 Guniganti Credit Shelter Trust owns the parcel outlined in blue where mining exposed pipelines.* *This one parcel is a small part of a much larger mine.*

Guniganti, a cardiologist from Nacogdoches, is one of the PG’s in the original Triple PG Mine.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has already opened an investigation into both the pipeline and breach issues reported above.

Posted by Bob Rehak one 7/24/2025

2886 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

The Dirty Dozen: 12 Ways Harris County Makes It Hard to Track Your Tax Dollars

7/23/25 – Ever wonder how someone could lose track of billions of tax dollars? It takes a lot of effort. But Harris County’s current Democratic leadership has proven adept at the task. Here are some of tricks of their trade.

1. Moving money around

That makes it more difficult to trace. Put Toll Road money into Flood Control. Put Flood Control money into Engineering. Then move it back again. And again. Establish a Flood Resilience Trust to supplement flood-bond funds. Then dissolve it. Never provide a full accounting. Whew. Even the county administrator couldn’t explain it clearly. Maybe that was the point.

2. Changing department heads and group managers

Replace professional hires with political hires. In Flood Control, Engineering, IT, Community Services. And 16 other departments. Then gut the management structure three or four levels beneath them. Lose institutional knowledge, project momentum and oversight capabilities.

3. Making the new department heads accountable to a new department

The County Administrator’s Office, for instance. It has had three heads in four years (David Berry, Diana Ramirez and Jesse Dickerman) and is searching for a fourth to replace Dickerman whose title is Interim Administrator. All within four years.

4. Replacing experienced professionals with political hires

Force remaining experienced professionals to do the work of the political hires…without a pay increase. One veteran professional, who needs to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals, told me, they’re “doing their best to drive off remaining staff, and not even bothering to find replacements. I am pretty sure it is well past the tipping point and the county is one disaster away from dysfunctional.”

5. Appealing routine Public Information Requests to the Texas Attorney General

Then if the AG upholds the request, charge thousands of dollars to email (months later) a PDF that was already sitting on someone’s computer.

6. Not updating websites

That makes it easier for Rodney Ellis to claim “Kingwood is getting all the money.” Parts of the HCFCD district website haven’t been updated for five years. See below.

*Screen capture from Downloads page on 7/23/25 shows last update was November 2020.*

7. Removing lists of Active Projects from your web site

That might enable people to quickly verify whether “Kingwood is getting all the money.” Make people dig for the information and pay for it instead.

8. Publishing spending updates annually that used to be monthly

The frequency of Flood Bond Updates has fallen off radically. That makes it difficult to track projects in near real time.

9. Hiring Consultants for $2 million to do the work of staff you lost

On the 7/10/25 commissioners court agenda, Item 250 was a contract extension with Berkeley Research Group, LLC for $1,995,000. The primary deliverable in this word salad seems to be a dashboard to help make projects’ status more visible. Of course, this could delay disclosure for additional months…as outsiders try to figure out what insiders can’t.

10. Not totaling columns of spreadsheets that stretch for dozens of pages

And don’t put headers on any pages past the first, either. Make people scroll back and forth until their eyeballs bleed or they give up. And make them perform complicated import/export procedures to total up columns that stretch to almost 40 pages.

11. Continually changing the way you allocate money to projects

At first it was on the basis of flood damage. But people could understand that. So, it changed. Over and over and over again. Until now, damage, flood risk and flood intensity have nothing to do with the formula for allocating flood bond money.

12. Not even telling people where bond money will go in the first place

Unlike the 2018 Flood Bond, Garcia’s 2022 $1.2 billion Bait-and-Switch Bond didn’t even tell people where money would be spent. Three years later, we still don’t know. So, no one can check on them.

Shortly before the vote on Garcia’s bond, commissioners agreed to give each precinct an equal share. That lasted until the day after the election. We’re still waiting to see where money is going. The County Engineer admits to spending $131 million in the last three years, but has published NO detail on what that money bought.

Is the current uproar over the flood bond an effort to deflect attention from more tax dollars that have gone MIA? We just don’t know.

Any one of these practices might be overlooked were it not for the presence of the others. But taken together, they feel like a concerted effort to “escape and evade” detection and accountability.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/25

2835 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood-Victim Video Brilliantly Lampoons Rep Who Consistently Voted against Flood Mitigation

7/22/25 – State Representative Steve Toth has announced that he will run for U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw’s seat in Congress. Yet Toth, who lives outside the District, has repeatedly voted against flood-mitigation measures vitally needed by the people inside the district that he now wants to represent.

That inspired a student, whose home flooded badly during Hurricane Harvey, to create this 2-minute, satirical video that brilliantly lampoons Toth. The student has asked to remain anonymous.

Click image to play. Two minute video about Toth’s vote against flood-mitigation measures vital to the people he now wants to represent.

Toth voted against bills to create a Lake Houston Dredging District three times – even when language was added the third time – in HB1532 this year – that would eliminate any tax impact. He also voted against HB13 designed to improve flood-warning systems.

Crenshaw Actions on Flood Mitigation

Crenshaw, on the other hand, has worked diligently to obtain flood-mitigation funding for projects in his district. He even helped muck out flooded homes in Elm Grove after Imelda.

Among other things, Crenshaw helped obtain funding for:

Emergency West Fork Dredging by the Army Corps of Engineers
TC Jester Detention Basin
Westador Detention Basin
Taylor Gully and Woodridge Village Drainage Improvements
Additional flood gates for Lake Houston
New bridge across the Kingwood Diversion Ditch
Harris County Flood Control District Channel Improvement projects
Kingwood High School Flood Gates
Home buyouts along West Fork
Home-elevation projects

I have known Dan Crenshaw since he first ran for office and have immense respect for him. He has worked hard to protect the people of this district by securing funding for numerous flood-mitigation projects. Steve Toth, on the other hand, has consistently voted against flood-mitigation measures. That tells me he’s out of touch with the needs of people in this congressional district. I plan on voting for Crenshaw.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/25

2884 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood-Victim Video Brilliantly Lampoons Rep Who Consistently Votes against Flood Mitigation

7/22/25 – State Representative Steve Toth has announced that he will run for U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw’s seat in Congress. Yet Toth, who lives outside the District, has repeatedly voted against flood-mitigation measures vitally needed by the people inside the district that he now wants to represent.

That inspired a student, whose home flooded badly during Hurricane Harvey, to create this 2-minute, satirical video that brilliantly lampoons Toth. The student has asked to remain anonymous.

Two minute video about Toth’s vote against flood-mitigation measures vital to the people he now wants to represent.

Toth voted against bills to create a Lake Houston Dredging District three times – even when language was added the third time in HB1532 that would eliminate any tax impact. He also voted against HB13 designed to improve flood-warning systems.

Crenshaw Actions on Flood Mitigation

Crenshaw, on the other hand, has worked diligently to obtain flood-mitigation funding for projects in his district. He even helped muck out flooded homes in Elm Grove after Imelda.

Among other things, Crenshaw helped obtain funding for:

Emergency West Fork Dredging by the Army Corps of Engineers
TC Jester Detention Basin
Westador Detention Basin
Taylor Gully and Woodridge Village Drainage Improvements
Additional flood gates for Lake Houston
New bridge across the Kingwood Diversion Ditch
Harris County Flood Control District Channel Improvement projects
Kingwood High School Flood Gates
Home buyouts along West Fork
Home-elevation projects

I have known Dan Crenshaw since he first ran for office and have immense respect for him. He has worked hard to protect the people of this district by securing funding for numerous flood-mitigation projects. Steve Toth, on the other hand, voted against flood-mitigation measures. That tells me he’s out of touch with the needs of people in this congressional district. I plan on voting for Crenshaw.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/25

2884 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Utility Conflict Still Forcing Hopscotch Construction on Northpark

7/21/25 – One remaining utility conflict in the receiving pit of a bore under UnionPacific Railroad Tracks is still forcing the Northpark expansion contractor to play hopscotch construction. This morning, crews worked all around the two bore pits but not in them or on them.

The bore is necessary to connect drainage on both sides of the tracks. And the bore must be completed before contractors can begin roadwork on top of the drainage. The pictures below, taken this morning, show where construction stands at the end of July 2025.

When complete, the Northpark expansion project will provide the first all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. That’s important because during major flood events, such as Hurricane Harvey, Kingwood Drive can be cut off by high water. The expansion project includes a bridge over 494 and the railroad tracks, giving 78,000 a quick route to higher ground.

Bore Pits Under Tracks

This is the bore pit contractors are using to force two 5′ steel pipes under the tracks.

*East of tracks in front of Self U Storage*

And this is the receiving pit west of the tracks. Note the utility line bisecting the pit on a diagonal.

*Receiving Pit west of tracks where junction box will eventually go.*

According to Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority, all work within UPRR right of way is currently on hold pending approval of a modified work plan needed to: a) address a recommended shoring method which is b) needed to remove a “previously unknown abandoned water line in conflict with the bore alignment.”

It’s always something in construction. Meanwhile…

Northpark Eastbound from 59 to Loop 494

Work continues between 59 and Loop 494.

*Note how all the old concrete has been removed in the center of the roadway. The left/south side of the road has also been cleared all the way from 59 to 494.*

*Contractors have begun pouring concrete in front of the dry cleaners at 494 and eastbound Northpark.*

Northpark Eastbound from Railroad Tracks

Farther east across the railroad tracks, clearing for surface lanes is complete and grading has begun (right of current roadway).

*Looking E. A six lane bridge over the tracks will eventually be built between the concrete on the left and the graded area on the right.*

Northpark Eastbound at Russell Palmer Road

Construction of the right turn lane at Russell Palmer Road is virtually complete.

*Looking SE at Intersection of Russell Palmer and Northpark.*

*Only a small, curved section of the turn-lane construction remains in front of the Mermaid Car Wash.*

*Looking SW from Northpark and Russell Palmer. A long stretch of the eastbound lanes (left) is now virtually complete back past the entrance to Kings Mill.*

Northpark Westbound by Sun Auto

Looking W. Sidewalk work has started next to the Sun Auto on the north, outbound side of Northpark.

*This phase of sidewalk construction will go from Sherwin-Williams Paint to Self-U Storage next to the railroad tracks.*

Looking W. A new development called the Northpark Enclave on the left has finished grading and installing drainage. Meanwhile, westward expansion of the surface lanes (right) has stalled in front of Public Storage (orange) because of the bore issue.

Loop 494 Northbound

Elsewhere…

*Looking N along Loop 494. Crews have finished a new northbound surface lane south of Northpark and are installing drainage before paving another.*

*Looking S along Loop 494 opposite Slim Chickens.*

Light-pole foundations on the south/eastbound side of Northpark are currently on hold due to conflicts.

Check back next month for more adventures in hopscotch construction.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/25

2883 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Why You Still Live with Higher Flood Risk than Necessary

7/18/2025 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) under the county’s current Democratic leadership has not put a high priority on improving flood risk in the San Jacinto watershed. That’s despite the fact that the San Jacinto had the highest flooding in Harris County during Harvey. And almost half of the deaths due to Harvey occurred in Kingwood.

“Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is”

An analysis of spending in all Harris County watersheds shows where the focus has been to date. The table and graphs below show the county’s true priorities.

“Put your money where your mouth is” means you back up your words with action. But that is not happening with 2018 Flood Bond money. Promises made long ago have not been kept. Words do not match actions.

One caveat about the numbers below: During the initial days of the bond, HCFCD contributed money to the Army Corps to complete projects the Corps had been working on in several watersheds: Brays, Hunting, Clear Creek and White Oak. That skewed the figures below slightly.

Total and Construction Spending by Watershed To Date

The table below shows dollars budgeted to each watershed in the 2018 bond. It also shows how much has been spent in total and against construction to date. It is arranged by descending order in the “% Spent” Column. Only one watershed has gone over budget to date: Carpenters. It had three small projects. The other watersheds range from almost 90% spent to 4%.

*Calculated from original bond spreadsheet and spending through the first half of 2025 as shown on HCFCD’s website.*

Critical Role of Construction in Reducing Flood Risk

Preliminary engineering reviews, feasibility studies and design are absolutely necessary to document the need for a project, determine its scope, and bid it. But they don’t reduce flood risk one iota. They only talk about how to do it.

Only when someone actually starts turning dirt during construction does flood risk start to come down.

The bar graph below compares “total budgeted dollars,” “total dollars spent,” and “construction dollars spent” for each watershed in the 2018 bond.

Note the huge variation in all three columns. The blue “budgeted” bars show the most dramatic difference from high to low.

Beyond that, note how White Oak, Cypress, Greens and Brays are close to $200 million in spending to date and how all four have more than $100 million in construction spending.

Now compare that with the San Jacinto Watershed. It had the fifth largest budget. But…

The San Jacinto ranks second from the bottom both in terms of “% Spent” and “% of Construction $ Spent.”

Other Lake Houston Area watersheds such as Spring Creek, Luce Bayou and Cedar Bayou show similar disparities.

This is not an accident. The cherry-picked metrics in the Rodney Ellis’ Equity Prioritization Framework favor other watersheds and no longer even include flood risk.

Critical Role of Construction

Construction is the most critical component of spending. Historically, it comprises the largest share of a project life cycle.

Eight years after Harvey and seven after passage of the flood bond, we’ve only spent about 17% of the total budget on construction.

Beyond that, comparing individual watersheds with the Brays Bayou watershed shows tremendous disparities in construction spending.

Halls Bayou, for instance, has the highest percentage of people in the county making less than the median income for the region. It also suffered the most “damage per square mile” in five major storms (Harvey, Imelda, Tax Day, Memorial Day and Allison). See below how it compares to Brays, where Rodney Ellis lives.

*Halls had far more dollars allocated than Brays, but Ellis’ formula put Halls residents at the back of the bus compared to where he lives in the Brays Bayou watershed.*

Halls Bayou was budgeted to receive 55% more dollars than Brays. But it has received far less than half of Brays’ total funding to date. And far less than a quarter of Brays’ construction spending!

The San Jacinto story is similar.

The bond promised the San Jacinto watershed more than Brays. But Brays has received 4 times more total dollars and six times more construction dollars to date.

The Great Irony

We should be coming into the home stretch with this bond money. Far more than half should have been spent by now and far more construction should have been completed or in progress.

The great irony is that both total and construction spending are decreasing when they should be increasing.

I have been told by many people that capacity among construction contractors is not the issue.

*From HCFCD Activity Page. Shows spending through Q2 25. Both overall and construction spending would continue to decline even if first half spending were annualized.*

And despite having more than $3 billion left to spend, with only one watershed over budget to date by a tiny amount, HCFCD’s Director is talking about a $1.3 billion shortfall without providing any public explanation about her projections. And commissioners are using that as an excuse to cancel projects in watersheds that have received minuscule funding to date.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/20/2025

2882 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Is Flood-Risk Uncertainty Redlining Your Neighborhood?

7/19/25 – Eight years after Harvey, we still don’t have new flood maps. That creates flood-risk uncertainty.

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has yet to release flood maps based on Atlas-14 data developed 4 years ago. HCFCD says it is waiting for FEMA to approve its maps, but FEMA delays have dragged on for years. And FEMA doesn’t need to approve the maps for many purposes.

Meanwhile, studies have found that flood-risk uncertainty may be causing lenders to raise mortgage rates and credit requirements. It’s also causing insurers to leave markets with uncertain risk or not renew policies that may be a mortgage requirement.

The ripple effects of flood-risk uncertainty affect everyone. But they weigh most heavily on low-to-moderate income (LMI) groups with less discretionary income. Those groups may find themselves priced out of the housing market as lenders and insurers seek to cover their uncertain risks.

Worse, any resident – rich or poor – may unknowingly buy a home that they thought was flood safe only to see a flood destroy it.

Ripple Effects of Flood-Risk Uncertainty

Studies show that flood-risk uncertainty may:

Induce people to buy homes they think are safer than they really are
Cause mortgage lenders to tack extra points onto their mortgages or raise downpayment requirements
Lead lenders to force buyers to purchase flood insurance they may not need
Increase flood-insurance rates to a level that makes monthly mortgage payments unaffordable for many.

Those factors affect all income groups. But those with lower incomes and less job security feel the greatest impact and may find themselves priced out of markets.

Spreading Impacts of Uncertainty

This week, First Street Foundation hosted a fascinating hour-long webinar about how FEMA cuts will impact real estate, lending, home buying, home building, and insurance markets.

The uncertainty affects tolerance for risk in all those markets. No one knows yet how the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) will be affected.

But the absence of up-to-date flood maps, or any flood maps at all in some cases, complicates that risk. A New York Fed study in 2024 found that lenders were more reluctant to originate loans in “hidden-risk” zones. When they do, they loan less, charge higher rates, impose stricter credit requirements, and may resell the mortgages to offload risk. The study also found “This effect is weaker for high income applicants.”

I know the owner of a billion-dollar bank who has withdrawn entirely from residential mortgage lending because of the uncertainty.

Federal Government Shedding Risk

According to First Street, policy shifts at the federal level seem intended to transfer the risk of weather disasters onto property owners, investors, lenders, and local governments.

Example: Instead of subsidizing flood insurance like it used to, FEMA’s new Risk-Rating 2.0 is making NFIP rates more closely reflect losses.

On average, NFIP policy costs have increased 35% under Risk-Rating 2.0 so far. And annual rate increases are capped by law.

Meanwhile, developers continue to build in risky areas, elevating homes only enough to meet the outdated requirements of flood maps developed 20 to 50 years ago. Most people underestimate the risk associated with that.

No Legal Reason to Wait for FEMA

Some people think that only FEMA can release flood maps. That’s not true. Only FEMA can release maps used by NFIP as the basis for national flood insurance. But states and counties can release their own maps for their own purposes.

Counties elsewhere have done so to help guide development, make regulatory decisions, establish stormwater detention standards, raise building codes and improve floodplain management.

For all those purposes, HCFCD embarked on a massive effort to update the county’s flood maps after Harvey. But then the county balked for some reason.

The District, submitted its new maps to FEMA and expected FEMA to issue new preliminary flood-insurance rate maps by Spring or Summer in 2022. That didn’t happen.

MAAPnext FEMA timeline for flood map release explains uncertainty — *Screen Capture from June 2021 MAAPnext update.*

HCFCD then issued a statement in July 2022. For unspecified reasons, it said it would wait and “… follow FEMA’s formal, regulatory FIRM [flood insurance rate map] update process.” (Despite other urgent, non-insurance-related needs.)

Some claimed at the time that Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia held up release of the new maps to enhance his re-election chances. I have been unable to verify that. But one thing is certain.

Nothing legally prevents HCFCD from releasing its flood maps.

Yet as you read this, developers in Harris County and surrounding areas are filing permit applications to build infrastructure and homes in areas that will likely flood. One fought all the way to the Texas Supreme Court for the right to build in a flood-prone area.

And Ryko wants to build 7,000 homes in another flood-prone area west of Kingwood. Just one problem: the homes could be under 7 to 25 feet of water – or more – if we get another Harvey.

Unsuspecting families who buy such homes based on antiquated flood maps face huge flood and financial risk.

Shakespeare was right. “What’s past is prologue.” Of the 154,170 homes that flooded in Harris County during Harvey, 64% did not have flood insurance…largely because of unrecognized risk.

Insurance Exodus

Unrecognized risk is also wreaking havoc in the insurance market. ChatGPT produced this table of insurers withdrawing or reducing coverage in high-risk states.

*State*	*Insurers Withdrawing or Reducing Coverage*
California	State Farm, Allstate, AIG, Chubb
Florida	State Farm FL, Farmers, AAA, UPC Insurance (exited), plus others post-2004
Louisiana	~20 insurers left high-risk parishes; Lighthouse went insolvent
Across coastal/high-risk states	AIG, AXA, Chubb pulling back

In Texas, I’m not aware of any insurers leaving the state. At least, not yet. But several (State Farm, Farmers, and Allstate) have reportedly restricted coverage. They do that primarily through non-renewals at policy expiration if flood-risk changes (i.e., with new maps) or a property experiences a flood loss.

Make New Flood Maps Public Now

Concealing information from people that puts their lives and life savings at risk is just plain cruel.

To keep residents safe, give them the best available data NOW. And let them decide how much risk they can tolerate based on fact, not fiction.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/19/2025

2881 Days since Hurricane Harvey