Progress Report on New Flood Maps and Flood-Insurance-Risk Ratings

On June 29, 2021, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) gave Commissioners an update on the progress of new flood maps and flood-insurance-risk ratings. The flood-map changes could become effective as early as late 2023. FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 system for flood-insurance pricing will be phased in during the next few years. See details below.

MAAPnext About Half Complete

MAAPnext is Harris County’s Modeling, Assessment and Awareness Project. The purpose: to develop the next generation of flood maps and tools. It will provide a better assessment of flood risks for individual properties, and make the nature of those risks easier for property owners to understand.

One of the significant changes: the new maps will capture different types of flooding, such as street flooding. This is currently the biggest missing piece of the flood-risk rating picture, according to the MAAPnext project team.

The new maps will also come with individual property reports that estimate flood depth, water-surface elevations, annual-chance of flooding grids, and 30-year chance of flooding grids. That last will estimate your chance of flooding at least once during a 30-year mortgage. The flood map grids will also be more detailed. They will provide estimates down to the 3 ft X 3 ft level.

FEMA and Harris County expect to have:

  • Draft flood-risk maps and associated data available for public review by the end of this year.
  • Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for release by next summer.
  • Public meetings to review and explain the FIRMs to officials and residents during the second half of next year.

The earliest likely date that the new rate maps could become effective: late 2023.

Changes to flood-insurance premiums as a result of map changes could only happen after the new maps become effective.

Understanding FEMA’s Risk Rating 2.0

Risk Rating 2.0 is a massive FEMA effort to put the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) on a sound actuarial footing.

FEMA is updating the National Flood Insurance Program‘s (NFIP) risk rating methodology through the implementation of a new pricing methodology called Risk Rating 2.0. The methodology leverages industry best practices and cutting-edge technology to enable FEMA to deliver rates that are actuarily sound, equitable, easier to understand and better reflect a property’s flood risk.

More Risk Factors Considered

Elevations, flood-hazard zones, and rating tables will no longer be the only metrics used in calculating the flood-insurance premium for a property. For example, premiums will be distributed across all policyholders based on home values and a property’s unique flood risk. FEMA will also consider flood frequency, multiple flood types—river overflow, storm surge, coastal erosion and heavy rainfall—and distance to a water source along with property characteristics such as elevation and the cost to rebuild.

More Equitable Rates

Currently, many policyholders with lower-value homes are paying more than they should and policyholders with higher-value homes are paying less than they should.

That said, FEMA expects 87% of single-family homes to see a flood-insurance-premium increase of about $120 per year. Another 4% could see an increase of about $121 to $360 per year. Finally, 9% could see a decrease of up to $1,200 per year.

Source: FEMA Fact Sheet – County-Level Premium Change Analysis reproduced in HCFCD document

Phased Implementation

Beginning October 1 this year:

  • New policy holders will be subject to the new rates.
  • Current policy holders eligible for renewal can take advantage of premium decreases.

Starting in April 2022:

  • Existing policy holders who expect an increase with the new method could renew under Risk Rating 2.0, but will have an option to keep their current policies if cheaper for up to two years.
  • All remaining policies renewing on or after April 1, 2022, will be subject to the new rating methodology.  

Contact your flood insurance agent to clarify all timing, rate and discount questions.

How Does MAAPnext Factor into Risk Rating 2.0?

Harris County Flood Control District in partnership with FEMA lead the MAAPnext effort to revise flood insurance rate maps. FEMA alone leads the Risk Rating 2.0 effort to calculate new flood insurance rates. The maps will help calculate new premiums.

For more information, visit the MAAPnext website or the Risk Rating 2.0 section of FEMA’s.

Posted by Bob Rehak on July 4, 2021 based on information from HCFCD and FEMA

1405 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Preliminary Engineering Contracts Approved for Two Kingwood Drainage Improvements

On June 29, 2021, Harris County Commissioners approved two contracts for preliminary engineering on Taylor Gully and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. The Taylor Gully project includes looking at Woodridge Village in Montgomery County to possibly expand detention-pond capacity there. See more below.

Taylor Gully Project

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) awarded Idcus, Inc. a $180,555 preliminary engineering contract to develop up to five conceptual alternative scenarios for modifying Taylor Gully. HCFCD and Idcus will then select three scenarios for more detailed analysis. Idcus must perform the work within 300 days of the Notice to Proceed.

The alternative modeling scenarios may include:

  1. Preferred Channel Alternative: This would look at improving the slope, width and lining of channel in conjunction with the existing detention on the Woodridge Village site. This purpose: to determine if the existing detention and proposed channel improvements suffice to mitigate flooding.
  2. Expanded Detention: This would look at expanding the existing stormwater detention on the Woodridge Village site so that no channel improvements are necessary.
  3. Alternative Channel/Detention: This would look at a combination of the two scenarios above. It would determine the amount of additional detention and channel improvements necessary to ensure no adverse impact all the way to Lake Houston.
  4. Optimization Alternative: Building on the alternatives above, this effort would examine additional alternatives to produce a no-adverse-impact solution while maximizing the flood mitigation and minimizing construction costs.
Deliverables for the alternatives include:
  • Channel and basin layouts
  • Estimates of benefits for various levels of storms (100-year, etc.)
  • Right-of-way requirements
  • Cost estimates for right-of-way acquisition, engineering and construction management.
  • Performance metrics, i.e., estimated acreage of land inundation, number of structures in floodplain, number of structures flooded and miles of inundated roadway.
  • A scoring matrix to rank the alternatives.

The scope also includes, when necessary:

  • Hydrologic and hydraulic analysis
  • Surveying
  • Soil sampling
  • Environmental site assessment
  • Subsurface utility exploration
  • Landscape architecture

Finally, Idcus will hold two public engagement meetings near the beginning and end of the project and consult with community groups such as KSA.

Geographic scope includes the Woodridge Village property in MoCo plus the Taylor Gully channel in Harris County.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch

HCFCD entered into a contract with Neel-Schaffer, Inc. for $437,685 for preliminary engineering on the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Within 300 days,Neel-Schaffer must:

  • Evaluate existing site conditions, previous studies, other projects that could affect this one, topography, rights-of-way, utilities, and soil surveys.
  • Evaluate existing bridges
  • Conduct and H&H analysis to assess existing and proposed conditions (from 2-year to 500-year storms).
  • Analyze Channel Improvements including the:
    • Impact of TIRZ #10’s latest design to replace the Northpark Bridge
    • Diversion structure at the confluence of Bens Branch and the Diversion Channel
    • Drop structures in lieu of a concrete lined channel to minimize high velocities due to the steep grade between
      Walnut Lane and Deer Ridge Estates Blvd.
  • Develop phased construction plans based on available funding, potential impacts and benefits.
  • Conduct two public engagement meetings and coordinate with community groups.

HCFCD may also require Neel-Schaffer to provide addition services when necessary, such as:

  • Surveys
  • Geotechnical investigations, i.e., bridge borings
  • Environmental assessment
  • “Jurisdictional” determination. Does this channel fall under the jurisdiction of the Army Corps? If so, channel design may need to be altered.
  • Determination of detention pond requirements
  • Exploration for subsurface utilities
  • Obtaining permits from the Corps
  • Providing Landscape Architect services
Extent of Kingwood Diversion Ditch. It runs from the new St. Martha Catholic Church north of Northpark to the fire station on Kingwood Drive. Then it runs down to Deer Ridge Park where it makes a turn and enters the West Fork at River Grove Park.

For Complete Text of Contracts…

The first half of each link below contains contract details such as compensation. The second half contains the scope of work.

They were items 146 and 147 respectively on the agenda for the 6/29/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting.

Next Steps

In general, the critical path for each of these projects will follow the project-lifecycle pattern of all HCFCD projects.

Typical steps for new projects constructed under the 2018 bond program.

HCFCD will:

  • Conduct public meeting
  • Develop, review and prioritize alternative designs
  • Commissioner’s court reviews and votes on recommendation
  • Move to final design of selected alternative with same company
  • Engineering company develops construction specs
  • Bid
  • Award
  • Build

These were two of many such contracts approved in the last Commissioners Court meeting.

Both came out of the Kingwood Drainage analysis. More on projects affecting other parts of the Lake Houston Area in future posts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/2021

1404 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Precinct 4 Transforming Mercer to Increase Flood Resilience

New amenities – including a grand entryway, boardwalks, and water features – will transform Mercer Botanic Gardens over the next decade as part of a plan to expand the gardens and make them more flood resilient.

Mercer approved its master plan, designed by Halff Associates Inc., in 2019, after buying more than 47 neighboring acres outside the special flood hazard area.

Mercer’s New Master Plan designed for Harris County Precinct 4 by Halff Associates.

Phase 1 of Transformation Already Underway

Phase 1 of the plan began March 8 and will take six months to complete. Improvements include building three greenhouses on higher ground to replace the Central Garden greenhouses. The extra elevation is expected to keep nursery plants safe from high water and provide a staging area for staff and equipment during disasters like Hurricane Harvey, which caused catastrophic damage at the botanic gardens.

“We decided we couldn’t just rebuild, because we would always be in harm’s way,” said Chris Ludwig, Mercer’s director. “The best option was to move our greenhouses to higher ground and make the facilities that couldn’t be moved more flood resilient.”

New and Improved Amenities on More Acreage

Before building the greenhouses, crews will excavate part of the property to create a detention area, using the excess soil to raise the property above Hurricane Harvey’s flood line. Plans also include demolishing the Central Garden greenhouses and using the space as an open lawn area for events and family-friendly outdoor movies.

Storey Lake and the Creekside Ramble were closed in 2016 after sustaining significant flood damage. But both have re-opened and will eventually link to other planned amenities.

Most development will occur over the next decade on a 47.44-acre plot adjacent to Mercer. Amenities include:

  • Three greenhouses
  • Water features
  • Trails
  • Observation greenhouse for exotic plants
  • Water wall
  • Amphitheater.

A boardwalk will span the pond, leading visitors past a Japanese Garden to a ziggurat – a tall earthen tower resembling the structure at McGovern Centennial Gardens, near the Houston Zoo. A twisting pathway will lead to the top of the tower so visitors can view Mercer from above. The boardwalk will also provide a shortcut to Storey Lake and a new rookery and water feature.

Baldwin Boettcher Library, which has been closed since Hurricane Harvey, will reopen as Mercer’s entrance. Additionally, Precinct 4 will restore Mercer’s Botanical Information Center, also damaged during Harvey, and open it to Baldwin Boettcher staff for library programs and classes.

Mercer’s west side, which remains mostly undeveloped, may also see a few improvements and new amenities over the years, including a Reflective Garden, Tree Village, and Maple Mall. A restroom and garden space is expected to open at the front of the westside parking area in fall 2021. Property also has been set aside on both sides of Mercer for connections to the Cypress Creek Greenway.

Inspire Your Family to Love Nature

Mercer is located in Humble at 22306 Aldine Westfield Road at Cypress Creek. That’s a little more than a mile north of FM1960. If you want to inspire your family to love nature, this is a great place to visit. And so convenient!

Click to view the master plan in a high resolution PDF format.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/2021 based on a press release and presentation by Harris County Precinct 4

1403 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Elsa Upgraded to Hurricane

A USAF mission into Elsa along with radar data and surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa is now a hurricane. However, uncertainty remains about the storm’s track and intensification.

Elsa in the center of the image is skirting the northern coast of South America and about to cross over the windward islands. Note the small core near the center.

Just yesterday, the NHC showed Elsa remaining a tropical storm all the way to Florida. Now, the National Hurricane Center shows hurricane conditions are quickly spreading into the Windward Islands. Various watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Islands (See graphic below).

86 MPH Winds Reported

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, Elsa has taken advantage of favorable conditions in the last 24 hours. Both the Air Force and land observers reported sustained winds of 86mph this morning. That makes Elsa a hurricane. Radar indicates good banding features and a small, central core.

Elsa continues to race WNW near 30mph which is extremely fast for a hurricane.

However, the system has thus far kept its low- and upper-level centers aligned.

Track

A strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane, will influence the track for the next 48 hours. Then Elsa will approach a weakness in the ridge and the forecasts become more uncertain.

One model shows the storm nearly dissipating over the Dominican Republic by Sunday. However, others show Elsa turning more north. Increasingly, this appears to be the more likely outcome. However, the spread is very large from east of the Bahamas to near the northern Yucatan at days 4-5 so confidence remains lower than average on the track.

Two models show Elsa making a beeline toward the central Gulf, but most take it east.

Intensity

Conditions seem favorable for increasing development. But the fast forward motion of Elsa could become a negative factor. Models show a large spread in intensity guidance, but most keep Elsa near the intensity it is now. As it approaches the Gulf, it should be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, but some forecasters see it growing much stronger.

NHC continues to lean toward the lower end of the guidance spectrum, but continues to indicate that Elsa could become stronger than forecasted – especially over the NW Caribbean Sea early next week.

Keep one eye on the Gulf. For the latest updates, check the National Hurricane Center.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/2021 at 8:30 am based on information from the NHC and HCFCD

1403 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Creates Trust To Fully Fund Flood Mitigation Projects Without Partner Assistance For At Least Next Six Years

On Tuesday, 6/29/21, Harris County commissioners voted unanimously to shift Harris County Toll Road Authority and other county funds into a trust designed to help bridge potential shortfalls in partnership funding. The amount would be $40 million per year. As a result, construction of Flood Bond Projects can continue without interruption or delay for at least the next six years. If more partnership funding materializes during that time, funds deposited in the trust could help cover non-bond projects farther into the future.

The issue of a potential shortfall in bond funding boiled into headlines back in March. Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis demanded to know where the money would come from to finish construction projects in Halls and Brays Bayou Watersheds if partnership funds did not materialize as planned. He gave Budget Management and the Flood Control District three months to develop a plan for backstop funding.

As of June 2021, HCFCD Needed to Find Additional $951 Million

When considering all flood-bond projects – not just those in Halls and Greens watersheds – the situation looks like this as of the end of June. See explanation of chart below.

As of 6/28/21, without any additional partnership funding, the potential need could be $951 million.

In 2018, voters approved a $2.5 billion flood bond that included $5 billion worth of projects (first column). Part of the $2.5 billion voters approved (third column) was designed to help attract another $2.5 billion in partnership funding. But only $1.25 billion has materialized so far (fourth column). With other transfers already made (fifth, sixth and seventh columns), that leaves a need of $951 million.

Commissioners wanted to know where that money could come from. Especially after HCFCD received nothing in a statewide competition for $1.1 billion in US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) hazard mitigation funds. General Land Office Commissioner Bush later requested a direct allocation of $750 million for Harris County, but that could take years – if it comes.

Trust Not a Substitute for Partnership Funding

The county intends to step up the search for partner funding. But if that funding does not materialize, it has also created a Flood Resilience Trust. The Trust would:

  • Backstop the 2018 Bond Program
  • Mitigate risks of increased construction costs
  • Potentially fund future flood risk reduction projects beyond the 2018 Bond Program

The Trust does not eliminate the need for partner funding. If partner funds materialize as hoped, HCFCD can use any excess money in the trust to construct future flood mitigation projects beyond the bond program.

The graphic below shows that $489 million has already been identified and allocated to the trust from various sources. The new element added on Tuesday (column six) includes $343 million in HCTRA funds. With rounding and other funds, that would help create a proposed Flood Resilience trust of $833 million to help cover the $951 need.

$40 Million Transfer Per Year from Toll Road Funds

Approximately $40 million per year would be transferred into the trust (red line in chart below). That should cover any unsecured spending through about 2027. By then, hopefully, HCFCD will have identified more partnership funds.

Commissioners spent a considerable amount of time debating the legality of transferring toll road funds to flood mitigation projects. The consensus: toll road development has impacted flooding in Harris County. Flood Control identified a $15 billion need to mitigate increased stormwater runoff caused by historical development of roadways. So, it should not be hard to find a transportation connection to most flood control projects that would satisfy auditors.

Equity Prioritization Framework Will Apply to Trust

The pie chart below shows the weights that will be given to various factors when deciding which projects to develop first with the additional funds.

Weighting in new prioritization framework

This differs slightly from the original equity prioritization framework. Compare the table below.

Weighting in 2019 Equity Prioritization Framework

They seem substantially similar, but the names of some factors have changed. For instance:

  • “Cost per structure” has replaced “project efficiency.”
  • “Flooding Frequency” has replaced “Existing Conditions/Drainage Level of Service.”
  • “Structures Benefitted” has replaced “Flood Risk Reduction.”

Cost per structure is not home value. It is the cost of the project divided by the number of homes benefitted.

“Structures Benefitted” counts the number of structures only, not the the value of those structures.

Thus, this factor gives more weight to densely developed urban areas.

Commissioners Ellis and Garcia have complained bitterly and repeatedly that FEMA Benefit/Cost Ratios for flood mitigation projects include a weighting factor for home value that theoretically gives higher preference to affluent neighborhoods. But that’s only one of many factors that FEMA considers.

This report from William & Mary’s law school explains that “impoverished communities may receive a Federal cost share of up to 90 percent of the total amount approved under the Federal award to implement eligible approved activities in accordance with the Stafford Act, but these communities must meet stringent criteria to receive funding.”

Regardless, I see no weight given to more valuable homes in Harris County’s prioritization guidelines. In fact, the density factor and social vulnerability combine for 45% of a project’s total score.

The biggest problem with this framework is that it doesn’t differentiate between street flooding and bayou flooding. Additional flood control projects for the bayous may not help homes that flood due to water collecting in streets.

For More Information

Here’s the full presentation made by the Flood Control District’s new acting director, Alan Black. And here’s a high-level summary prepared by the Harris County Budget Management Department.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/2021 based on information provided by Harris County Flood Control and Budget Management departments

1402 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Depression 5 Becomes Tropical Storm Elsa Overnight

In its 5 a.m. Thursday update of the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical depression 5 to Tropical Storm Elsa.

Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

Notice the beginning of an eye in Elsa at the 5 o’clock position and slight rotation.

Eastern Gulf Probabilities

At 5 a.m. Thursday 7/1/2021, forecasters believe that the eastern Gulf has up to a 30% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds by late this week or early next.

The tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight. Convective banding features are becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation.

Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is 35 knots, making the cyclone a tropical storm.

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 22 knots. A strong subtropical ridge should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. However, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5.

Disagreement Among Models, High Uncertainty

The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one last night. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.

Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity.

However, potential interaction of Elsa with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative.

Key Messages

  1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.
  2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
  3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system’s progress and updates to the forecast.
  4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

There is no forecast threat to the Houston area. Just beware in case you are traveling in the Caribbean or to Florida this week or next.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 6am on 7/1/2021 based on NHC information

1402 Days since Hurricane Harvey

One Storm Upgraded, Second Downgraded

At 10 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted an update on the two areas of disturbed weather that were approaching the windward islands this morning. One has already crossed the islands and has been downgraded. The NHC now gives it a 0% chance of tropical development. However, NHC upgraded the other storm system and gave it a number – Tropical Depression 5. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. They also issued a tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guadaloupe.

The warning means that they expect tropical storm conditions in the next 36 hours. But a warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

Happy Fourth of July, Florida

At this point, however, it appears the storm will track toward Florida. The earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds: Sunday evening.

But the probability of that is less than 20% as of tonight.

Rescue Efforts in Condo Collapse Could be Affected

If the storm follows the predicted path, it will put Surfside, Florida on the dirty side of the storm, complicating rescue efforts in the condo collapse. However, NHC hastens to add that track questions exist given the high degree of uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

Pray for the rescuers and anyone who may still be alive in the rubble.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2021 at 11PM based on information from the National Hurricane Center

1401 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Two Systems Approaching Caribbean

A strong tropical wave located midday between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to show increasing signs of organization. The red area below has an 80% chance of tropical formation in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 a.m. this morning.

Red storm has 80% chance of tropical formation as of 8 am, June 30, 2021 according to National Hurricane Center.

Storm Farthest East Represents Biggest Threat

Convection has increased near a developing low-level, low-pressure system designated 97L for the moment. 97L has a large moisture envelop and conditions generally favor development as it moves westward.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist and the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression will likely form in the next few days. It may also turn into a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands. They expect continued W to WNW motion bringing the system into and through the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend.

Models Diverge on Direction After Storm Enters Caribbean

It’s too early to tell where it goes after that. Some models suggest the system will turn WNW and NW while others maintain a more westward track. “There is reasonable support for both,” says Lindner.

Lindner emphasizes that it is early for tropical cyclones to form in this region of the Atlantic. While 97L may become a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands, once it gets past them, it may encounter slightly less favorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

While there is no significant threat to SE TX at this time, you should monitor 97L daily.

Nearest Storm Poses Less Threat

The yellow area is a second, separate area being monitored by the NHC. It is moving quickly WNW at 20 to 25 mph and will enter the Caribbean later today. However, it is producing only disorganized showers and thunderstorms so far and diverging trade winds may tear it apart. The NHC only gives it a 10% chance of tropical formation. So while it will bring heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antilles, it poses little danger to Houston.

For the latest information, the NHC updates storm tracks every 12 hours during the hurricane season and even more frequently if storms approach the U.S. mainland.

Posted by Bob Rehak based on information from HCFCD and the National Hurricane Center

1401 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Flood-Mitigation Funding Flows to Damage, Not High-Income Neighborhoods

Last in an eight part series on flood-mitigation funding in Harris County

For two years, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia have alleged that rich watersheds get all the flood-mitigation funding, while poor and minority watersheds get none. But data suggests that is far from the truth.

Three months ago, the din from Ellis and Garcia reached a crescendo. I became so alarmed about the allegations of racism in flood-mitigation funding, that I submitted a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Request to Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) for historical funding data by watershed. I also requested related data such as watershed size, damaged structures, the number of low-to-moderate-income (LMI) residents, and more.

Data Contradicts Ellis/Garcia Narrative

My analysis contradicted the carefully crafted Ellis/Garcia narrative. I found the exact opposite of what they claimed.

The most dollars flow to low-income watersheds which, coincidentally, have the most flood damage.

The strongest correlation I found with flood-mitigation “funding” since 2000 was “damaged structures.” And the percentage of low-to-moderate income residents in a neighborhood correlates very strongly to damage per square mile.

When you think about this, it makes sense. We put the most flood-control dollars in areas that flood the most.

Damage Per-Square Mile Correlates Highly with LMI %

To understand patterns in the data, one must start by evaluating damage “per square mile.” That’s because high- and low-income watersheds differ radically in size and number.

  • Harris County has only eight low-to-moderate income watersheds, but 15-high income watersheds.
  • The low-income watersheds are half the total size – 600 square miles vs. 1176 square miles.

When looking at damage on a per square mile basis, the highest concentrations occur in low-income neighborhoods.

LMI percentage and damaged structures per square mile have a 0.82 coefficient of correlation. Mathematicians consider that very strong. 1.0 is the highest you can get, a perfect correlation.

Damage includes structures flooded in four major storms since 2000 (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day and Harvey).

Low-income watersheds cluster on the left and high-income watersheds on the right because of “Damage,” not racial discrimination in mitigation funding. Mitigation dollars already overwhelming flow to minority and low-income neighborhoods as they have for decades.

Flood-Control Dollars Flow to Damage

There’s also a strong relationship between total funding and total damage. Notice how the shape of the curves align closely with a few exceptions.

Total funding since 2000 and the number of damaged structures show a 0.84 coefficient of correlation. Mathematicians consider that very strong.

You can see a general downward trend in both blue and orange, indicating a strong correlation. This relationship supports other statistical analyses in this series. (See links to previous articles listed below.)

At the highest level, when you look at the data from multiple perspectives, one thing stands out: 

Dollars flow to damage, not affluent watersheds.

Possible Causal Links Between LMI Percentage, Damage and Funding

Touring lower income watersheds by car or helicopter helps explain why those watersheds have so much more damage and consequently receive so much more funding. In general, they:

  • Are much more densely packed with buildings, a consequence of more than twice the population density (3,900 residents/square mile compared to 1,600).
  • Have more impervious cover, so water can’t soak in as quickly or as much
  • Tend to crowd floodways and floodplains, which have expanded over time with upstream development
  • Are downstream from rapidly growing areas.
  • Are 70 to 80 years old and therefore built to lower development standards
  • Have many homes that sit almost at street level instead of being elevated above it.
  • Have many clogged roadside ditches and storm drains, due to poor maintenance by county precinct crews and the City of Houston’s Public Works Department. (Water has a hard time getting out of neighborhoods.)
  • Have more structures per acre.

Re: the last point, in Kashmere Gardens (an LMI neighborhood), I found six homes on a third of an acre worth more than my house on a full acre in Kingwood. The density can offset higher home values in suburban neighborhoods when calculating Benefit/Cost Ratios for FEMA or HUD.

Flood-Mitigation Funding by Watershed Since 2000

Here’s how much money each watershed received for capital improvement projects since 2000. No maintenance dollars or dollars committed to complete projects are included – only dollars “out the door” as of the end of March 2021.

The graph above dramatizes two things: 

  • The wide variation from high to low. Luce Bayou received only $4.5 million while Brays received $510 million. That’s 113 to 1.
  • A few watersheds received multiples of the average and median, while far more received a small fraction.

Funding Data Disproves Racist Allegations

Remember that the next time you hear the allegations of racial discrimination from Ellis and Garcia. This discussion shouldn’t be about race. It should be about fixing flooding problems.

The government is not funding flood-control projects in rich areas that didn’t experience flood damage. It funds them in areas that had the MOST damage. Those just happen to be in minority and low-income neighborhoods. And it is critical that people focus on WHY those structures flooded if we are to find solutions. 

Implying that they flooded because of racial bias is misdirection. The racial allegations divide and distract people. They also keep HCFCD, from focusing on real solutions to our flooding problems. That harms all voters in Harris County.

If commissioners continue to focus on race, it will prove they care more about political gamesmanship than fixing drainage.

While that may win them re-election, we all lose.

For More Information

For more information, see: 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/2021

1399 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Looking Through the Wrong End of the Drainpipe: The Politics of Misdirection

Seventh in a series of eight articles on flood-mitigation funding in Harris County.

For the last two years, I’ve heard the same tirades in Commissioners’ Court – that rich neighborhood’s get all the flood-mitigation money while the poor neighborhoods get none. According to Commissioners Ellis and Garcia, that’s because higher home values in rich neighborhoods generate higher Benefit/Cost Ratios and therefore get more FEMA grants. Problem is, FEMA looks at many other factors. And HUD grants favor low-income neighborhoods. But you never hear Ellis or Garcia talk about those.

In reality, most flood mitigation-money in Harris County goes to watersheds with high percentages of low-income residents. (See links to previous posts below.)

By focusing on a narrow part of the flood-mitigation funding process as opposed to outcomes, Ellis and Garcia have been looking though the wrong end of the telescope. Why? To focus attention on the wrong end of the drainpipe! 

In the most flooded parts of Halls and Greens watersheds, street after street has clogged ditch drains. Responsibility for cleaning those drains falls onto, you guessed it, Ellis and Garcia, along with their counterpart at the City of Houston, Mayor Sylvester Turner.

Simple FOIA Request Disproves Narrative

The Ellis/Garcia narrative just didn’t sound right to me. So I submitted a Freedom-of-Information-Act (FOIA) request to the Harris County Flood Control District in March for historical funding data. I wanted to see if the allegations were true. They’re not.

Analysis shows that the Ellis/Garcia narrative is 180-degrees from the truth. By almost any statistical measure, flood-mitigation spending favors the poorer watersheds in Harris County. That’s where most of the damage is. 

Surely Commissioners Ellis and Garcia can’t be oblivious to more than a billion dollars of construction benefitting their own precincts. 

And had they bothered to look, they would have found Kingwood, their favorite whipping boy, has never received one Harris County Flood Control District Capital Improvement Project.

Verbal Sleight of Hand Deflects Attention from Who’s Responsible

So, what’s going on here? Why the constant barrage of racial accusations and divisive rhetoric? 

In my opinion, the deception, omissions and distortions of fact are about misdirection.

They seem designed to deflect attention from those responsible for a crucial part of the problem: street drainage.

And if you don’t fix that, you will never solve flooding no matter how much money you throw at channel widening, detention ponds and green solutions.

A process engineer in the oil and gas industry once told me, “There’s always a bottleneck in every system somewhere.” And one of the biggest issues in neighborhoods that flood repetitively is street drainage. Water can’t get out of the neighborhoods to the bayous.  

Poor Ditch Maintenance Contributes to Street Flooding

By alleging racism in the HCFCD funding, Commissioners Ellis and Garcia are deflecting attention from a serious issue; many of the neighborhoods in their jurisdictions have awful internal drainage (streets and storm sewers) that contribute to frequent street flooding. Street flooding happens when high rainfall rates exceed the capacity of storm drains and ditches to carry the water away. The reduced capacity of the ditches below makes the streets flood on smaller rains.

Swale filled with sediment, almost totally blocking drain on Kashmere Street between Octavia and Engleford in Kashmere Gardens. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.
Ignacio Vasquez has lived in Kashmere Gardens for 45 years. He says he has called 311 about blocked drains like this one on Engleford St. “thousands of times”, but they never get fixed. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.

Vasquez says that after a heavy rain, this drain backs water up throughout his neighborhood and contributes to flooding. He says it can take up to 3-4 days for water to drain away. Completely unprompted, he then said that Kingwood was getting all the help from the City. I told him that I lived in Kingwood and that our drains were just as bad as his. See below.

Drainage swale on Valley Manor Drive in Kingwood is completely filled in. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.

But I digress. Here are some more street drainage photos taken on 6/26/21 in Halls and Greens Bayou Watersheds as well as Kashmere Gardens on the southeast corner of US59 and Loop 610.

Wherever I drove for five hours, residents repeatedly told me that because of poor maintenance, water has a hard time getting out of neighborhoods. It must either sink in or evaporate. See below.

Amboy and Octavia Streets. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.
On Octavia just east of Amboy St. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.
Etheline St. near Korenek St. Harris County Precinct 1’s maintenance responsibility.
Octavia St. near Kashmere Street. City of Houston’s maintenance responsibility.

To be fair, not all the ditches were this bad. But I saw thousands like these on hundreds of streets while driving around for five hours. Sometimes sediment almost completely covered drains. I often had hard times spotting the pipes.

On north side of Laura Koppe just east of Arkansas Street. Harris County Precinct 2’s maintenance responsibility.
On Kowis Street a few hundred feet east of the Hardy Tollroad. Harris County Precinct 2’s maintenance responsibility.

The saddest sight I saw all day was this home on Etheline Street between Homestead and US59.

Note the mold and rotting exterior. Also note how close to street level this home is. Harris County Precinct 1’s maintenance responsibility.
Red circle shows location of drain completely blocked by sediment. Harris County Precinct 1’s maintenance responsibility.
Sixteen more representative shots in Harris County Precinct 1, Precinct 2 and City.

With drainage this bad, water may evaporate or infiltrate faster than it flows out of neighborhoods!

Who is Responsible for Streets and Storm Sewers?

Who is responsible for clearing blockages like these? Not the Harris County Flood Control District.

Inside the City of Houston, it is the Houston Public Works Department and a mayor who has been sued for diverting drainage fees.

Who is responsible for the unincorporated areas of Harris County? The Precincts. And the worst drainage happens in Precincts One and Two with Commissioners Ellis and Garcia.

  • Why does Kashmere Gardens (in the City) have open ditch drainage that hasn’t been maintained in years?  
  • How do areas in East Aldine still have barely functional roadside ditches and residents who do not have municipal water and sewer service?  

Commissioners Ellis and Garcia have the power and the money to address these issues. Yet they have chosen not to. Why have they not helped the very people they claim are left behind?  

Show Us the Data

It is important to note the questions NOT being asked in this so-called “equity” debate. 

  • How much has the City of Houston invested in these flood-damaged areas to remediate drainage?  
  • How much have Precincts 1 and 2 invested?  
  • What drainage projects have they completed since 2000?
  • What is the capital improvement plan for each precinct, and how much of that includes drainage improvements?
  • What is the equity prioritization framework for precinct spending?
  • How much unspent money does each precinct have for infrastructure?

The answers may point right back at the people making racial accusations.

The City and Commissioners Ellis and Garcia need to provide answers. Let’s see the data. How much have the City and the Precincts spent in these areas? If these areas are underserved, Commissioners Ellis and Garcia, and Mayor Turner are responsible.

They have claimed transparency is important to them. The time to prove that is now. 

Blaming the problems on racial discrimination is an easy sell in minority neighborhoods. But it’s misdirection and it keeps the spotlight off Commissioners.

Hounding talented executives like Russ Poppe, the soon to be ex-head of the flood control district, out of their jobs won’t fix the issue either. That’s also misdirection.

And it diverts focus from finding solutions to the real problems that contribute to flooding. For that, many people need look no further than the end of their driveways.

We all need to step back and look at flooding from end to end. Then maybe we’ll make life easier for the most vulnerable people among us.

For More Information

For more information, see: 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/2021

1398 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.