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Family Trapped For Three Days As Floodwaters Ripped Through Sand Mine, Then Under Their Home

Yesterday, I wrote how the San Jacinto East Fork seemed to have re-routed itself through an abandoned sand mine. This morning I got a call from a couple who live near the mine. The woman and her husband had been trapped in their home for three days by the river which is now – incredibly – running right beneath their home. As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, floodwaters subsided enough for them to boat to safety. But their story is a gripping lesson in how quickly life can change.

Dream Turned into Nightmare

Jack Arnold bought 25 acres in the country back in 2002 to have a retreat from the noise of the city. He works in structural steel and quiet Plum Grove in Liberty County seemed like the perfect place to unwind. He and his sons built a home in 2011 on steel poles 21 feet in the air about 400 feet east of the San Jacinto East Fork.

*The spot Arnold cleared for his home in 2011, east of the East Fork San Jacinto which runs through the woods to the left of the red box.*

Then three things happened.

In 2012, a sand mine started up about 1100 feet south of him.
Later that year, Colony Ridge started building northeast of him.
His ex-wife sold 16.5 acres of their property to the sand mine, which then expanded around him.

It didn’t take long for Arnold’s flooding woes to start.

Sand Mine and Colony Ridge Permanently Alter Hydrology of Area

Here’s what the surrounding area looks like today.

*Arnold’s home is partially surrounded by a sand mine (white box) on three sides. And the first two Colony Ridge subdivisions are dumping water into the East Fork upstream of him* *with fewer detention ponds than they likely should have to meet Liberty County regulations.*

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that the sand mine’s dikes have constricted the East Fork floodway (cross-hatched area) about 90%. This puts tremendous pressure on the mine’s dikes as water tries to squeeze through a fraction of the space. That also increases erosion which further breaks down the dikes. *The constrictions could be one reason why the river rose 10 feet in 24 hours at this location.*

Arnold says his property never flooded in the first five years he lived there. Then in 2015, as Colony Ridge and the sand mine expanded around him, he started flooding regularly. Last Sunday, the water started rising again. This time, it was from an 8-inch rain that areas upstream received. Plum Grove itself received only a little more than 3 inches. Harris County’s meteorologist characterized the 8-inch rain, which fell over a two-day period, as a ten-year rain.

Near Death Experience, Not to Mention…

As floodwater rose around the Arnolds last Sunday morning, they had a hard time understanding why. But it kept coming up and up. Three days later, it’s still four-feet deep (waist high) under their house and moving so fast it could knock strong men over.

Arnold nearly died in a previous flood event when he was swept away. He clung to a tree for two hours until his second wife and stepdaughter rescued him. Then all three had to be rescued by the game warden three days later. Now, Arnold takes no chances. He and his wife have been holed up alone for three days waiting for the water to go down. They each have missed two days of work so far this week, because they couldn’t reach their cars which they parked on higher ground.

Altogether, they have lost nine vehicles, two campers, and a boat since the flooding started. Another reason they were reluctant to leave their home despite being trapped: looters stole all their valuables after they evacuated during a previous flood.

Begging For a Buyout that Hasn’t Yet Come As Flooding Gets Worse

The Arnolds don’t want to move; after all, Arnold built the home with his own hands. But he and his wife just can’t take any more flooding. Now, they just want out. They’re begging for a buyout that hasn’t yet come.

And their flood woes will likely not change. Colony Ridge built the subdivisions north of them using dubious engineering reports that classified the soils as more permeable than the USDA did. That enabled the developer to avoid building detention ponds and maximize the amount of land he sold. But the runoff is likely greater than the developer promised the county engineer. And now the officials have stopped producing documents that might prove suspicions.

Perhaps worse, the sand mine has been sold to a company that wants to turn it into an RV park. Which means there’s no one to fix the dikes which ruptured during the latest flood. In a phenomenon that geologists call pit capture (or river capture), the East Fork rerouted itself through the sand mine and then filled the mine up like a water balloon. The water balloon then broke more dikes on the southern end of the mine in a location that is not aligned with the bridge openings over the East Fork.

The main current of the river has been running through the mine and under the Arnolds’ home for days now.

House Built in the New River Bed?

Now the Arnolds worry they may have a house built in the river. Of course, they won’t know until the flood water goes down. And even though the water level has lessened slightly since yesterday, it is still too high and too dangerous to venture out. See images below.

*Looking SE. Sand mine dikes have broken on the lower right and now water rushes out of the west fork, crosses the mine and goes under Arnolds’ house in the trees on the left.*

*Looking NW. Note how the pressure of the water has collapsed the swimming pool in their side yard.*

*Looking NW.* *The water then rushes back into the mine from the south side of the property.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2021 based on personal observations and interviews with Michael Shrader, and Jack and Pamela Arnold

1344 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 593 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Floodwaters Converging Downstream on Lake Houston

As of Monday morning, the threat to Lake Conroe had passed, but now floodwaters from the rain soaked northwestern portion of the region are converging on Lake Houston. Here’s a roundup of what’s happening where.

Lake Conroe Going Down

The San Jacinto River Authority reduced its discharge rate to from 9275 cubic feet per second (CFS) to 8120 CFS as the level of Lake Conroe continued to recede, but the West Fork came out of its banks at US 59. The West Fork also began flooding Kingwood’s River Grove Park and the abandoned Noxxe Oil Fields between the river and the Forest Cove Little League Fields.

Lake Conroe Re-Opening With Caution

The SJRA issued a press release at 10:15 am. stating that Lake Conroe will reopen to normal lake traffic at noon Monday, May 3. However, boaters are still urged to use extreme caution due to floating debris and submerged objects that may not be fully visible. With submerged bulkheads, lake area residents should also be cautious of electrical outlets and equipment coming into contact with water.

SJRA is currently releasing water from the Lake Conroe dam to gradually lower the water level back to conservation pool of 201’, but SJRA must strike a balance between upstream recovery and downstream danger. For real-time information on Lake Conroe levels, releases, rainfall totals, or stream flows visit www.sjra.net.

SJRA clarified that it intends to return Lake Conroe to 200 until June 1 per its seasonal lake lowering policy as soon as emergency operations restore it to 201. Normally, SJRA would begin recapture on June 1, not May 1. The seasonal release rate is much lower than the current rate.

Floodwaters Converging Toward South and East

Meanwhile, the glut of rainfall that inundated the northwest portions of Houston last week is starting to converging on areas downstream.

*From Harris County Flood Warning System*

As of 10:30 am, the San Jacinto East Fork is also way out of its banks at FM1485 and FM1485 is reportedly closed until Friday. That leaves one way in and out of Colony Ridge – FM2090.

The San Jacinto East Fork at FM2090 peaked overnight and is starting to recede, but is still out of its banks. The East Fork is not influenced by the Lake Conroe Dam, which is on the West Fork.

*FM2090 at East Fork near Plum Grove on May 3, 2021 at noon.*

FM2090 is still open, but Plum Grove resident Michael Shrader reported a steady line of traffic trying to get out of Colony Ridge up to 11:30 PM Sunday night. This underscores the need to develop alternate evacuation routes for the fast growing subdivision.

Meanwhile, the flood threat is receding at Peach Creek and FM2090.

Caney Creek at FM2090 is getting back within its banks.

And the West Fork, however, is still rising. By 9 a.m. (six hours after the hydrograph below) it was out of its banks at US59.

Flood Warning Remains in Effect for West Fork Until Further Notice

At 2:45 PM CDT Monday, the National Weather Service indicated the West Fork was 49.6 feet.

Flood stage is 49.3 feet.
Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
Forecast…The river is expected to rise to a crest of 49.7 feet late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Wednesday morning.
Impact…At 49.3 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage. North side turnaround at US 59 begins to flood. Low points on Thelma Road, Aqua Vista Drive, and Riverview Drive begin to flood.
Flood History…This crest compares to a previous crest of 49.7 feet on 11/13/2008.

Here are photos taken along the West Fork this morning.

*A young couple surveys rising floodwaters at the turnaround under the US59 bridge. The river bank is about a hundred yards in front of them at the sign in the background.* *This is the northwestern extent of Lake Houston.*

*A log jam forms from flood debris under the pedestrian bridge over the West Fork.*

*Floodwater had crept past the edge of Harris County’s Edgewater Park.*

*However traffic was still flowing on US59 in both directions.*

*About a third of the abandoned Noxxe Oil Field by the Forest Cove Little League fields was under water.*

*The soccer fields at River Grove were partially submerged. Yesterday they were mostly dry.*

*The boardwalk at River Grove was underwater except for the entrance.*

*There was no immediate threat to Kings Harbor though the dock was only inches above water.*

*As floodwaters work their way downstream, Lake Houston continues to rise. As of 5:30PM on 5/3, the lake is now up more than 1.6 feet and many docks are starting to go under.*

No widespread flooding is expected in the Lake Houston Area. But people who live in low-lying areas or near the lake should take precautions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/3/2021 based on information from NWS, HCFCD, Jeff Lindner, SJRA, Michael Shrader and personal observation

1343 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 592 since Imelda

Rampaging East Fork Floodwaters Cut New Path Through Plum Grove Sand Mine

The sign outside the abandoned Texas Concrete Sand and Gravel Mine in Plum Grove tells readers that an RV resort is coming soon. They might want to rethink that concept. Yesterday, rampaging floodwaters destroyed most of the mine except for a small area near the entry on FM1010.

Classic Example of Pit Capture

The East Fork rerouted itself right through the heart of the mine, sweeping away almost everything in its path. The river swelled to more than half a mile wide and ruptured dikes in at least four places when the river rose 10 feet in 24-hours.

*The East Fork at this location rose 15 feet in three days, 10 of those in one day.*

Normal course of river is red line on west side of mine. During flood, the river broke through the dike on the north side. Then floodwater filled the mine like a water balloon which burst in multiple places on the south side. Water now follows the yellow line.

This is a classic example of what geologists call pit or river capture. The East Fork entered the northern side of the mine and exited at multiple points on the south. Current coming out of the mine exceeded that in the river itself, carrying mud and muck downstream.

Flooding Based on Less than 10-Year Rain

The gage at this location indicated Plum Grove received only 3.36 inches of rain over a three-day period. However, up to 8 inches fell upstream from here, primarily during a two-day period. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist characterized the rains that produced the flood as, “Generally less than a 10-year event for the 48-hour time period.”

Pictures Taken on 5/3/2021

I took all of the shots below on 5/3/2021, three days after the major portion of the rain fell on April 30.

*Looking north at the northernmost portion of the mine. The river appears to have entered the mine in this area.* *Note the dike in the far distance that’s not visible in the tree-line on the left.*

*Wider shot, still looking north toward entry point shows white water ripping through mine.*

*Looking south, you can see that the water in the mine is now higher and faster than the water in the river to the right.*

*Still looking south toward FM2090, now the only way in and out of Plum Grove. FM1485 is closed due to high water and FM1010 was washed out during Harvey by runoff from Colony Ridge to the southeast.*

*Looking north across FM2090. Where the water exits the mine, you can see that the force of the main flow is now misaligned with the bridge opening.*

*The width of the mine is now the width of the river…plus the river.* *Only the entry of the mine at the upper right remains above water at this time.*

Danger of 2090 Washout in Next Big Flood?

Unless someone reroutes the river back to its original course and fixes the dikes, the current through the mine will continue to erode the banks of the roadway at the top of the image above.

These images dramatize the need for real sand-mining reform in Texas. There’s some evidence that Imelda did the same thing to this mine two years ago. But the TCEQ forced the company to repair the dikes. Now that the miners are gone, who will do that?

Plum Grove was lucky that upstream rains only amounted to a ten-year event. A larger storm could have cut the City and Colony Ridge off from the only viable evacuation route. More than 20,000 people would have been affected.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/3/2021

1343 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 592 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Update: Lake Conroe Holding Steady, Lake Houston Rising, East Fork Expected to Rise 10 Feet in Next 24 Hours

Last night’s storms in the Houston area did not drop as much rain as the previous night. As a result, the SJRA is holding the level of Lake Conroe steady by releasing 9270 cubic feet per second.

*Level of Lake Conroe as of 9 a.m. 5/2/21, down from 203.07 last night.*

However, the level of Lake Houston has risen from 42.85 last evening to 43.46 this morning. That’s a rise of .61 feet or 7.32 inches overnight. And it could get worse as more water works its way down the East Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek.

*From Coastal Water Authority as of 8:30 am., Sunday, May 2, 2021*. *Up .61 feet since last night.* *Data updated hourly.*

To Get Whole Picture, Look Upstream in All Directions

Flooding upstream affects the level of Lake Houston. For instance, tributaries of Spring and Cypress Creeks have been flooding. So has Caney Creek. And the East Fork San Jacinto River is expected to crest above flood stage later today. This map from Harris County Flood Warning System shows the problem areas where people need to remain alert.

*Observe the concentration of warning signs upstream from Lake Houston. They mean streams near or above flood stage.*

For instance, look at this.

The hydrographic for the San Jacinto East Fork near FM2090 shows the river could rise 10 feet in the next 24 hours!
National Weather Service

*The National Weather Service predicts moderate flooding on the East Fork near New Caney. We are at the stage where people close to the river need to take action.*

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “The East Fork is rising quickly this morning and will exceed flood stage this afternoon and rise to moderate flood levels late tonight into early Monday. At the current forecast levels widespread low land flooding is expected downstream of the gages at both Plum Grove and FM 1485 (New Caney). At the forecasted levels FM 1485 is likely to be inundated with water west of the bridge crossing and become impassable. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Wednesday or Thursday.

*Hydrograph for the San Jacinto West Fork as of 10:45AM, 5/2/21.*

About the West Fork San Jacinto, Lindner says, “The river is rising this morning mainly from inflow from both Spring and Lake Creeks. The river is forecasted to rise to near flood stage early Monday and hold around flood stage for a couple of days before falling around mid week.” Starting early Monday, Lindner expects minor low land flooding near the rise with possible impacts to roads on the north side of the river and east of US 59 as well as the US 59 turn-arounds.

Remain Cautious

Put it all together and the message is “Caution,” especially if you live near one of those gages colored red or yellow. But at this time, authorities have predicted no widespread flooding in the Lake Houston Area.

The SJRA posted a situational update for Lake Conroe as of 9 a.m. on Sunday morning, May 2, 2021. The SJRA notice says: “Water level at Lake Conroe is beginning to decrease. With no additional rain in the forecast today, SJRA and MoCo Constable Precinct 1 will continue to monitor lake level and open Lake Conroe as soon as it is safe to do so. Reservoir releases are holding steady and not expected to increase. The Constable’s office urges boaters to tie up their vessels to assist with boating safety. If you find your boat is missing, contact the Sheriff’s office non-emergency line 936-760-5800. We will provide another update Sunday afternoon. Real time lake conditions available below.”

The SJRA closed Lake Conroe to boaters Saturday, when the lake rose two feet overnight from Friday.

How Close Was It?

These pictures taken by a Lake Conroe resident on Sunday morning show what a close call some residents there had.

*Picture taken Sunday, 5/2/21 at approximately 9:30 am. near the Walden boat ramp.*

In reference to the fact that SJRA had lowered the lake one foot in April as part of its seasonal policy, the resident who took these pictures said…

“Think what an extra foot would have done to that homeowner.”
Lake Conroe resident

That extra foot gave the homeowner the buffer needed to avoid flooding.

*Walden boat ramp on 5/2/21 at approximately 9:30 am. “Not usable really,” said the boater/photographer. “Water is just too high.”*

Rainfall Totals for Last Two Waves of Thunderstorms

This rainfall map from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows the 9-day totals for all gages in the Houston region. The 9-days include the storm that wiped out the 1-foot buffer that the SJRA created when it lowered Lake Conroe beginning in April. Note how the northwest portion of the region received the most rain…two to four times the amounts shown on Lake Houston Area gages.

*Nine day rainfall totals include the amount of rain received since Lake Conroe was at 200 feet (one foot below its normal target level during the seasonal lowering).*

As wet as it has been for the last several days, we lucked out compared to our neighbors to the northwest.

The sun is shining. At least for now. More thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday. I’m going out NOW to take my dog for a slosh. While I can.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/21 at 10am based on info provided by SJRA, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority, NWS and Lake Conroe residents

1342 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Keeps Rising Despite Increasing Discharges by SJRA

In the last two weeks heavy rains have slammed the areas upstream from Lake Conroe leading to steady rises in the lake level. Had the lake not been lowered earlier, neighborhoods could be flooding now. Streets in several places are already cut off.

*As of 7:30 pm Saturday night, 5/1/2021*

More Than Three Foot Increase Above Lowered Level

The rain a week ago erased the one-foot seasonal lowering that SJRA started on April 1. Then yesterday’s rains increased the lake more than 2 feet above its normal level of 201 – despite increasing discharges by the SJRA. The lake is now threatening lakeside homes and businesses as you can see from the photos below.

If you’ve watched the dashboard at SJRA.net, the SJRA started discharging 450 cubic feet per second (CFS) before the most recent round of storms. Now the discharge rate has increased to 9275 CFS, which is close to the max rate that the antiquated flood gates on Lake Houston can handle. But even at 9275 CFS, Lake Conroe continued to rise this afternoon.

So did Lake Houston, despite the fact that the Coastal Water Authority has been trying to lower the lake a full foot for several days now.

Water Coming from Other Sources, Too

However, in addition to the water from Lake Conroe, Lake Houston is also picking up water from other sources, a number of which are in danger of coming out of their banks.

*Status of streams as of 4:15PM on 5/1/2021* according to the *Harris County Flood Warning System.*

Yellow triangles indicate a stream could come out of its banks. Red exclamation points mean flooding is likely.

This is precisely the scenario that the SJRA designed its lake lowering policy to prevent – an ugly choice between flooding people upstream or downstream.

But the Lake Conroe Association has fought the lowering for the last two years both in a court of law and the court of public opinion. The Association mounted an expensive campaign including billboards, lawsuits, and a legislative offensive against the SJRA. Now, the rapid rise in lake levels may undermine LCA’s support; it certainly undercuts their arguments against seasonal lake lowering.

Water Creeping Closer to Homes and Businesses around Lake Conroe

A Lake Conroe resident who wishes to remain anonymous took the pictures below this afternoon. They show docks underwater, the lake invading shorelines, streets cut off, and homes and businesses being threatened by rising waters.

*The docks at Papas on Lake Conroe are underwater.*

*Water is creeping closer to the Villas at Margaritaville.*

*This resident said water from the rising lake levels was keeping water from draining into the lake and backing it up into streets.*

*Docks in front of Monty’s Light House and Fajita Jacks. Those boats are in their slips. The docks are under water.*

The marinas on 105 are closed for two reasons. First, the lake is closed to boat traffic because of dangerous conditions. Second, the water is high enough that you can’t get trailers in deep enough, according to one resident. The Walden marina looked like the one above, he said.

One More Round of Thunderstorms Tonight

Expect one more round of storms tonight. National Weather Service radar shows them already sweeping into the Lake Conroe area. They aren’t predicted to dump large amounts of rain, but they will put additional pressure on the homes and businesses around the lake, especially as runoff from previous storms continues to work its way to the lake.

The East Fork in southeast Montgomery County remains under a Flash Flood WARNING, especially areas around Caney and Peach Creeks.

*Caney Creek gage at FM2090* *as of this afternoon.*

And virtually the entire region remains under a flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is very dangerous. You should monitor forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

*From National Weather Service on 5/1/21*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/1/2021 based on information from Lake Conroe residents and the NWS

1341 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday

Heavy rainfall remains possible through Sunday.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday morning for much of the area.

Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.

*Last 24 hours of rainfall as shown on Harris County Flood Warning System at 7pm 4.30.21.*

Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.

First Round Kicks Off Overnight

NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”

Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday

Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.

Rainfall Amounts

Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.

Area Soils Now Saturated

I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.

A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.

The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.

Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.

Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend

UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.

*Rainfall accumulations expected by NWS in **next 5 days**. Updated at 5:51PM Houston time on 4/29/2021.*

National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.

*Most of the Houston region has a marginal or slight risk of flash flooding – less than 20%.*

Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered

Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.

The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.

*Lake Conroe level as of 7pm on 4/29/2021*

*As of 10pm, SJRA had started releasing 530 cubic feet per second.*

To monitor SJRA releases, see the dashboard on their home page.

Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX

“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.

Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.

Threat Remains Through Sunday

Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.

The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. With all the moisture in place, high rainfall rates could cause street flooding.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.

Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding

The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.

The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service

1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Halls Bayou Illustrates Cost, Difficulty of Flood Mitigation in Overdeveloped Areas

Flooding within the Halls Bayou watershed illustrates what happens when development, density, lack of detention and insufficient distance from streams put people and their property in harm’s way. Instead of protecting a strip of green space near the bayou years ago, developers built right up to the edge. As density increased and developers built further upstream without sufficient detention, people who crowded the Bayou then started to flood repeatedly.

As the images below show, once developed, the cost and time of mitigation increases exponentially.

All of that argues for better planning and the protection of green spaces that can accommodate future floods and flood mitigation projects throughout the region.

Halls Bayou Not Unique

This same scenario happened repeatedly in other Houston watersheds: Greens Bayou; Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, and Cypress Creek, for instance. But let’s save those for future posts. For now, let’s go back in time.

Solution Well Known for More than a Century

In 1913, recognizing the potential for continued growth, a well-known landscape architect, Arthur Comey created the first comprehensive plan for the Houston Park Commission. He observed that Houston ranked far behind other major U.S. cities in parkland. It had one acre of park for every 685 residents. Seattle was a distant second at 224 residents per acre.

To address this inequity, Comey’s plan included a visionary idea. Noting that the city’s network of bayous were already “natural parks,” he proposed a series of linear and large parks along their lengths.

As he wrote, the “bayous and creek valleys readily lend themselves to trails and parks and cannot so advantageously be used for any other purpose.”…

Unfortunately, developers ignored him.

About Halls Bayou

The Halls Bayou Watershed comprises a city within a city.

Older homes and businesses are densely packed.
Many are built right up to the edge of the Bayou.
70% of the population is low-to-moderate income.
You see far more signs in Spanish than English

Economically, the area looks poor. Culturally, it feels rich.

Frankly, as I drove through it last weekend to photograph flood mitigation projects, it felt much more vibrant than more affluent neighborhoods father to the north or south.

For the most part, people have fixed their homes since the last big flood. These folks may be poor, but the vast majority take great pride in what they have.

The map below shows the route of Halls Bayou through surrounding mid-north neighborhoods. Homes are packed so close to the bayou that it’s hard to see it in places, so I outlined the route in red.

*Route of Halls Bayou through mid-north part of Houston. Airline Drive is on left, I-45 in middle and US 59 on right.*

Now, let’s superimpose floodplains over the same area.

*Floodway = cross hatch, 100-year floodplain = aqua, and 500-year floodplain =tan.* *Map last updated in 2007 based on data from Tropical Storm Allison.*

North to south along US 59 (on right), the floodplain extends almost 3 miles. And it will extend even farther when new maps based on Atlas 14 are officially released based on Harvey data. The image below shows what the area around US 59 and Halls looked like in 2002 shortly after Tropical Storm Allison.

*Note subdivisions built right next to bayou.*

Next, see how that area looks today where Halls Bayou crosses under US 59. Two large detention ponds exist where the subdivisions used to be.

*Note the two large detention ponds, one on either side of the freeway. The one on the left was substantially completed in 2015 and the one on the right in 2018.*

Each detention basin took about three years to build.

Time, Costs of Buyouts

Before HCFCD could construct the detention ponds, it had to buy out homes in adjacent subdivisions and demolish them. Buyouts near the detention areas above began in 2002 when HCFCD received a large grant from the federal government after Allison. Google Earth images show that the buyouts took at least another three years.

Then Flood Control had to get permits from the City of Houston to demolish the streets. That took additional years.

So from 2002 until the completion of construction took 13 to 16 years (2015 and 2018). But the construction itself took only 3 years.

Thus, the total project took 4-5X longer than construction.

$1 of Prevention Worth a $1000 of Flood Mitigation

This area started to develop in the 1940s. The earliest image in Google Earth (1944) shows that it was at the edge of the City then. With more wetlands and farm land to absorb rainfall, the flooding problems were probably not as bad. A few scattered subdivisions pressed against the edges of the bayou. But the lots were large. And had green space been set aside then, the story today might be different.

*Halls Bayou in 1944. Note: only two subdivisions started to encroach on the bayou. Rest was rural.*

Compare again the shot above with the one below for a dramatic example of infill development. The shot above is NOTHING like today’s below.

*Compare the dramatic increase in density with the decrease in bayou width.*

Just looking at these two maps, you can see how the dramatic increase in density limits flood mitigation possibilities and raises costs.

We no longer have any easy solutions.

To make matters worse, despite flooding, people often fight buyouts. Most people in neighborhoods like this depend on support networks of friends and family. They fear leaving those networks. Many date back generations.

Should Have Known Better

Developers and home buyers knew or should have known this area was flood prone. But still, they built or bought here at great risk to themselves, and ultimately at great cost to the community.

That raises the question: Why were people allowed to build so close to the bayou in the first place? Why wasn’t sufficient green space left along the bayou to widen it or build detention ponds?

There are no simple answers to that question. Residents may not have felt at risk until upstream development sent more water downstream faster. They may not have been knowledgeable enough about flooding to ask the right questions.

Some just wanted to live close to work. Some wanted to be near family and friends. Some needed the support. And some just pushed their luck because they liked the view or location and the lots were cheap. Regardless, everyone is paying the price for decisions often made decades ago.

Posted by Bob Rehak on April 28, 2021

1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners Supplement Flood-Bond Funds with Highway Money to Accelerate Mitigation

Tuesday, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 5-0 to transfer $315 million of toll road revenue, unallocated County road bonds and other county funds to accelerate the construction of certain flood-bond mitigation projects. They will allocate the funds to mitigation projects using the 2018 Flood Bond Prioritization Criteria.

The transfer will provide backstop funding for 100% of the projects in the Road & Bridge Subdivision Drainage Program of the 2018 Flood Control Bond Program, removing the risk that partner-funding shortfalls prevent projects from being completed.

Text of Motion

The final language as amended and approved reads as follows:

Create a new funding facility of $115 million, made up of County road bonds or HCTRA surplus revenue, to free up Flood Control bond capacity currently used for the Subdivision Program. The Flood Control bond capacity will be allocated by utilizing the 2018 Flood Bond prioritization criteria.

Create an additional funding facility of $200 million, comprised of HCTRA surplus revenue or other County resources, to support completion of projects that are part of the 2018 bond program with the required transportation nexus.

Here is a background sheet from the county’s budget management department that explains the switch.

The Subdivision Program consists of 91 projects which, according to HCFCD estimates, reduce the risk of flooding to more than 45,000 homes.

Background

The projects benefit neighborhoods with outdated drainage infrastructure or which never had modern drainage systems in the first place. Furthermore, multiple projects are located in watersheds that have been historically disadvantaged in securing federal funds for flood control. According to the Office of the County Engineer, the Subdivision Program has a current estimated total cost of $535 million (or ~$590 million including an approximately 10% contingency).

Among the objectives:

Provide backstop funding for partnership projects in case grants don’t materialize or are delayed beyond a reasonable time
Let projects with mature or advanced partner funding opportunities pursue those opportunities for a defined (but not unlimited) period of time..

The background sheet contains a list of eligible projects in each precinct. Any Subdivision Program project costs that have not received a notice or award of partner funding by August 31, 2021, would be eligible to receive additional money from the backstop funding.

Discussion

Discussion on the motion and amendment lasted about an hour. It became clear that commissioners believe they:

Must complete all projects in the bond.
Expect not to find partnership funds for some projects, leaving those projects underfunded.
Need more money.
Must use diverted funds on flood projects that have some connection to transportation, i.e., problems created by new highway construction.

*This approval will remove a cloud of uncertainty from projects that rely on partnership funding which has not yet materialized* *for some projects.*

Including projects from all four precincts helped ensure a unanimous vote.

Another Bond? Not So Fast

Commissioners talked about the possibility of another flood-bond offering. However, the likelihood of that passing is slim. Poor people feel the money is going to affluent neighborhoods and affluent people feel the money is going to poor neighborhoods. If no one is happy with the way the current bond money has been handled, why would anyone vote to approve more?

Commissioners have grappled for more than a month with how to handle a possible shortfall in partner funding. Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis threatened to slow down or halt all flood-bond projects until Flood Control found a way to fully fund projects in Halls and Greens Bayous. Today’s development, seemed to avoid that showdown.

Flood Control will try to collapse a ten-year timeline down to five years.

It’s unclear at this time how today’s development will affect HUD grants in the pipeline, the interest costs on borrowed money, or the availability of qualified contractors.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2021

1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Four Halls Bayou Detention Ponds Recently Completed; Four More Virtually Done

If you saw the recent front page article in the Houston Chronicle about Halls Bayou, you would think that Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) relegated residents in the watershed to “the back of the bus.” Even before the bond, Halls received four floodwater retention projects, three of which are major. HCFCD is trying to expand the fourth of those. And since the flood bond, HCFCD has virtually completed four more floodwater retention projects..

Here’s what I found by simply driving around after consulting the HCFCD website and Google Earth Pro. I wish the Chronicle writer had done the same. There’s just no substitute for laying eyeballs on the job sites before riling up millions of people. Let’s start with the flood-bond projects first. I took all the photos below on 4/25/21 and 4/26/21.

Almost Completed Stormwater Detention Basins in Halls Watershed

*Third new basin north of Helms Road east of Airline Drive*

*Fourth new basin south of Helms Road west of Airline Drive*.

Recently Completed in Halls Watershed

*Hall Park Stormwater Detention Basin East of US59 at Parker*. *Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2018.*

*Bretshire Stormwater Detention Basin West of US59 at Parker*. *Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2015.*

*Keith Weiss Park Stormwater Detention Basin on Halls Bayou east of Aldine Westfield*. *Google Earth images show this project was substantially completed in 2015.*

*West of Aldine Westfield, there’s a small basin owned by TxDOT. HCFCD hopes to enlarge this basin into the surrounding wooded areas as part of bond project C-25.* *Google Earth images show the first phase of this project was completed in 2012.*

Funding “Shortfall” Not Yet Known

The Chronicle writer also claimed a “funding shortfall” for Halls of $272 million. Curious that he would make this statement just days before the GLO announces the winners of a statewide competition. Harris County could get some, none or all of its requests. To be clear, the competition is stiff; Harvey affected more than 40 counties. Regardless, there’s more than $2 billion up for grabs ($1 billion in this round and $1.144 billion in the next). It seems to me, the Chronicle writer could have waited a few days to publish results rather than rumors.

We Need Real Historical Data on Flood Mitigation Spending

Whether you agree with Rodney Ellis, Adrian Garcia and Lina Hidalgo or not, they have fought tenaciously for their constituents. They succeeded in reordering the priorities in flood-bond spending to serve low-to-moderate income neighborhoods first. For the Chronicle to imply that they failed their constituents is an insult to the Judge and Commissioners.

And to imply that all the money is going to more affluent neighborhoods is simply false. That claim seems designed to inflame racial hatred. Kingwood, for instance, has NEVER received one federally funded capital improvement project from HCFCD. Yet the Chronicle’s readers evidently concluded rich neighborhoods get all the money. Again, there’s no substitute for research.

*From the Chronicle writer’s Twitter feed.*

Inflaming racial tensions based on false information is the last thing America needs at this time.

In my opinion, we need facts, not fiction. Asserting discrimination is not the same as proving it.

Chronicle Article Also Ignores Tax Issue, Funding Realities

The Chronicle’s “HCFCD-puts-poor-people-at-the-back-of-the-bus” narrative also ignores the mechanics of funding projects. Before the flood bond vote in 2018, I spent an hour with former County Judge Ed Emmett discussing funding needs. A high priority at that point was to make local tax dollars stretch as far as they could by leveraging partner funding.

The need to leverage partner funding was even addressed in the final flood bond language. Paragraph 14 G states “…the commissioners court shall provide a process for the equitable expenditure of funds recognizing that project selection may have been affected in the past and may continue to be affected by eligibility requirements for matching Federal, State and other local government funds.”

Nobody stretches local tax dollars like the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). HUD is one of the main sources for funding projects in low-to-moderate income neighborhoods. Why?

HUD often offers a 90% match.

But there are two catches. First, you’re only eligible if at least 70% of residents that benefit from a project qualify as “low-to-moderate income” (LMI). Second, HUD is slow. To put “slow” in perspective, the Texas General Land Office just started accepting HUD grant applications from Imelda last Saturday. Imelda happened 586 days ago.

Looking at the flood bond spreadsheet (Page 6 of 10) and the expected partnership share of Halls Bayou Projects, you can see that 90/10 ratio reflected in most of the projected funding for Halls.

It’s unclear whether voters would have approved a flood bond that was 9X higher, especially when everyone, rich and poor alike, expressed concerns about not getting their fair share.

Alternative Sources of Halls Funding More Risky

Had HCFCD tried for FEMA funding instead, the low home values in Halls neighborhoods may have yielded a poor Benefit/Cost Ratio. Commissioner Ellis constantly reminds people about the perils of FEMA funding when applied to LMI neighborhoods.

So really, HCFCD had no choice but to focus on HUD for Halls projects.

The neighborhoods qualified.
The HUD match was far higher.
That minimized a tax increase.
It also maximized the number of possible Halls projects.

This was not a “gamble” as the Chronicle headline implied; it was actually the least risky option that seemed to benefit the most people.

*Map above taken from* *HUD CDBG-MIT Draft Grant Application from Halls Bayou Watershed shows that 144,000 people in the watershed qualify as LMI (low to moderate income). That’s 70.6% of the total residents.* *To see the complete draft, visit this page.*

We all need to calm down and wait to see how much money HUD grants the Hall’s Bayou Watershed projects. Brittany Eck of the GLO told me that she expects decisions by the end of this month. That’s this Friday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/27/2021

1337 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 586 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.