Wet Week Coming: 4-6 Inches Likely for Region, 8-10 Possible

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist is predicting a wet week ahead for southeast Texas with frequent rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. He also predicts flooding and flash flood threats that will increase throughout the week.

National Weather Service 5-Day forecasted rainfall amounts as of Sunday morning.

Upper Level Disturbances Meet Tropical Moisture Inflow

Says Lindner, “A short wave is approaching the area this morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area and continue through the day. Storms have already anchored over portions of Matagorda into Jackson Counties this morning. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for that area and this will be the story this week.”

An upper level storm system over the southwest will eject several disturbances across Texas this week, according to Lindner. These disturbances will interact with a near constant flow of tropical moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to produce rounds of storms and heavy rainfall with each disturbance. Humidity levels throughout the Houston region range from 70% to above 90%.

Given the feed of moisture, the potential for slow moving and training storms, and high moisture levels, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Expect Heavy Rain Through End of Week

Heavy rain is likely from today through the end of the week. While it will not rain the entire time, there will be several rounds. Grounds will saturate and run-off will increase during the wet week ahead.

Today’s concern: slow storm motions currently being seen southwest of the city. Such storm motions and rainfall rates over urban areas could quickly lead to street flooding.

Main concern: Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper-level storm will move into Texas. Southeast Texas will develop very favorable conditions for rainfall. A steady stream of moisture and strongly divergent winds aloft will support training of lines and clusters of thunderstorms. However…

…There could be flooding and heavy rainfall at nearly any time from today through Friday.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Rainfall Amounts

Lindner thinks rainfall totals over the next 5 days will likely average 4-6 inches over the region with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will be possible under stronger storms. Rises on area rivers will certainly be possible given the widespread nature of this event along with the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. While totals will be spread out some over time, the concern of short term excessive rainfall rates resulting in flash flooding is possible in this pattern. Get out the galoshes. It’s going to be a wet week ahead.

Lake Report

At this hour, Lake Conroe is not releasing water and the lake is at its normal level of 201 feet above sea level.

From SJRA Dashboard (10am Sunday morning, May 16, 2021)

This could get interesting. Lake Conroe is full and if you look closely at the rainfall map above, you will see that the NWS is predicting some of the heaviest rainfall for our area to be upstream from Lake Conroe.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/2021

1356 Days since Harvey