Could This Be the Start of Hurricane Season?

After four days of heavy rains, today looked like a respite. This morning’s predictions mentioned another inch or two on Friday and Saturday. But then this the National Hurricane Center posted this within the last few minutes: a warning about what could turn into the season’s first tropical depression. And hurricane season doesn’t officially start for another ten days.

20% chance of formation for yellow area in next two to five days

20% Chance Before Official Start of Season

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “The old complex of thunderstorms that moved off the Texas coast yesterday has festered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico today. While the satellite images look impressive, there appears to be no closed low pressure system at the surface and instead a surface trough extending across the region. Thunderstorms have been weakening this afternoon and there is no new development.”

Radar this morning showed storm festering in Gulf with a stationary trough drawing moisture up through Texas and Lousiana.

“So far this evening,” continued Lindner, “there is a large area of dry air to the west of the feature in the Gulf. The dry air will likely become entrained over time. However, some models show additional development for this feature as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW in the general direction of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.” 

NHC suggests the yellow feature has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 2 days.

National Hurricane Center

This feature could help to enhance rainfall amounts over SE Texas this weekend, but any additional impacts beyond that at this time appear to be minimal, according to Lindner.


This should serve to all that hurricane season begins in ten days. Don’t be caught unprepared. My Links page has many sites with helpful tips. You may also want to take this opportunity to bookmark the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and Harris County Flood Warning System. They offer round the clock updates.

Take some time getting to know them know. During an actual storm, power outages and crowded bandwidth may make leisurely learning difficult.

Two other important sites for this area are the San Jacinto River Authority for Lake Conroe releases/levels and the Coastal Water Authority for Lake Houston levels. At this hour, the Lake Conroe is holding steady while releasing 2665 cubic feet per second. Lake Houston is still rising slightly with the flood gates wide open.

Lake Conroe Dashboard as of 7:30 PM on 5/20/21
Lake Houston as of 7:30PM , 5/20/21.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 5/20/21 Based on Information by NWS, NHC, HCFCD, SJRA, and Coast Water Authority

1360 Days since Hurricane Harvey