The forecasts turned out to be accurate. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55 am today at Port Fourchon, LA with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930mb.” Storm surge at the coast is 12 feet above ground level.
Image from RadarScope Pro from KLIX New Orleans Radar.
Wind Reports
Although Ida’s extreme winds are confined to the inner eyewall, aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 nautical miles to the northeast of the center. Based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends outward about 130 nautical miles northeast of the center. Here are some readings as of 1PM Sunday 8/29/2021.
Grand Isle: 146mph (unconfirmed)
Port Fourchon: 153mph (unconfirmed ship)
West Delta Oil Platform: 149mph (elevated just off the coast)
Wind Forecast
For those with friends and relatives in Louisiana who did not evacuate, the National Weather Service predicts that winds will remain over 100 mph for the next 12 hours, decrease to 60 within 24 hours, the drop to 35 mph within 36 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected in metropolitan New Orleans.
Misery Not Yet Over
The storm should follow this track.
Ida’s track will take it over portions of Tennessee severely damaged by flash flooding last weekend.
Large portions of SE Louisiana could see 15-20 inches of rain.
Most of the state has a moderate to high risk of flash flooding.
“Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts,” says the NHC. “As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.”
Storm Surge
Storm surge has deadly potential along the coast. NHC calls it, “Extremely life-threatening.” And they say, “Overtopping of local levees … is possible.”
Surge recorded so far:
East Bank Mississippi River (South of New Orleans): 12.15ft (AGL)
Shell Beach: 7.51ft (AGL)
Grand Isle: 6-8 ft (AGL)
Thus far all federal levee protection and floodgates/walls are preforming as expected. Catastrophic impacts will continue inland over southeast Louisiana into tonight.
I was planning on doing a 4-year retrospective on Harvey today, but will postpone that out of deference to the suffering east of us. Thoughts and prayers for our neighbors who provided so much help in our hour of need.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Attachment-1.png?fit=1242%2C2454&ssl=124541242adminadmin2021-08-29 14:32:082021-08-29 14:49:23Cat-4 Ida Hits Louisiana with 150 MPH Winds and 12-Foot Storm Surge
On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.
The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.
Plan Scope
Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:
Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.
Verifying where and how quickly sediment accumulates.
Determining ownership of private canals and legal obstacles associated with dredging them.
Identifying disposal sites for the dredging spoils.
Investigating costs for both mechanical and hydraulic dredging through both private and public entities.
Exploring options for future funding of maintenance dredging.
Evaluation Criteria
Firms will be evaluated on:
Responsiveness of their submissions to the criteria outlined.
Technical competence, which is a composite of:
Firm Qualifications
Expertise, experience and qualifications of key personnel
Project approach to meeting deliverables, managing risk, and managing work
Proposed plan and strategy for meeting project schedules
Success with similar projects in the past
Participation by Minority/Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Dredgers have finally entered the channel between the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto on their way to the East Fork. Photo taken 8/28/2021Since my last update on August 6, 2021, the dredging has moved another 600 feet into the channel connecting the East and West Forks south of Royal Shores.
Four Years Ago Tonight
The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210828-DJI_0427.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2021-08-28 17:21:222021-09-23 15:54:57City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan
As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.
Warnings Now In Effect
The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:
Storm Surge Warning from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Hurricane Warning for the coast of Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and Metropolitan New Orleans.
Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
Hurricane Ida over the western tip of Cuba as of 3PM Houston timeon 8/27/2021
Rapid Intensification
According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.
Models now predict Ida will reach category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
National Hurricane Center
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.
Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.
Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing
Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.
Key Messages
However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Story of the Storm in Picture
Confidence in track is increasing. Ida should reach the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts by Sunday afternoon.…but tropical-storm-force winds should arrive by Sunday morning.Most of the Houston area only has about a 10-30% chance of experience tropical-storm-force winds.And we have practically no chance of excessive rainfall that could create flash flooding.Portions of Louisiana, however, will like see 15-20 inches of rain.But the biggest threat by far to our neighbors will come from storm surge. Portions of the delta could see as much as 15 feet above ground level.
Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021
1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/155544WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2021-08-27 16:38:062021-08-27 16:40:37Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans
1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.
1968 Plan for 1990
A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.
Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.
Hits and Misses
For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.
For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.
But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.
Reservoirs that Never Happened
The plan also showed large reservoirs.
One was immediately west of what is now Kingwood where Spring and Cypress Creeks come together with the San Jacinto West Fork near I-69.
Another was west of a tiny town in the hinterlands called Tomball on Spring Creek.
A third was on the Brazos River near Richmond and Rosenberg.
And the fourth was a sprawling affair north of Lake Houston that took in portions of Peach and Caney Creeks, the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.
Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.
Olive-colored areas represent open spaces recommended as set-asides for recreation, water resources, and flood control. However, little of the land was actually set aside for those purposes. The large green ring around the City is now the Grand Parkway.
Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.
Halls Bayou in 1968. Note the green areas suggested as set-asides for “open space” along the bayou where development was already crowding the stream banks, leaving few options for flood control.
Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.
People would demand flood mitigation after, not before development.
However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).
But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Prelim-Plan-1968.jpg?fit=1200%2C1071&ssl=110711200adminadmin2021-08-27 14:39:352021-08-27 15:10:39The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968
As of this 11 a.m this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Invest 99L has turned into Tropical Depression 9 (TD9). Satellite imagery now shows circulation in the area of low pressure over the west-central Caribbean which I posted about yesterday. Cuba and the Caymans have already issued tropical-storm warnings. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected there. And the storm should strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Yet the effects on the Houston region will like be felt offshore and in coastal areas.
Center of circulation starting to form. NOAA Satellite image as of 9:50 a.m. CDT on August 26, 2021.
TD9 Current Intensity and Location
The initial intensity of TD9 as of 11 a.m. Houston time is approximately 35 mph with gusts to 40. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system’s structure and intensity.
TD9, now located just south of Grand Cayman, is moving northwestward at 13 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates the system should move steadily northwestward. That would bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approaching the US Central Gulf coast on Sunday.
Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the track forecast for TD9. However, error at Day 4 is around 175 miles, so don’t focus on details of the long-range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined, according to the NHC.
The cone of uncertainty for TD9 at this point stretches all the way from Houston to Mississippi. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of being hit.
TD9 will move over warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening.
Rapid Intensification Likely in Next 48 to 72 Hours
NHC forecasts TD9 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. It could approach hurricane strength as it passes western Cuba.
Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions support additional strengthening. The NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification between 48 and 72 hours for now.
The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Most global models show significant intensification of TD9 over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.
Key Messages
1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday, with dangerous storm surge possible in western Cuba.
2. The system will likely produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
3. This system should approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Most of the Houston area has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from this storm.Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive by early Sunday morning.
Likely Hazards in Islands and Mainland
The main hazards associated with TD9 as it passes Cuba and the Caymans will be:
STORM SURGE:
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and Cuba on Friday.
RAINFALL:
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.
SURF:
Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Lindner Cautiously Optimistic At This Point
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist believes, “Impacts along the upper TX coast will likely be increasing swells and minor coastal flooding at high tide late this weekend into early next week.”
Monitor forecasts closely in case things change and be prepared for anything. We still won’t reach the peak of hurricane season until mid-September.
Statistical peak of Hurricane Season is September 10.
Posted by Bob Rehak at noon on 8/26/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1458 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/144701_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-08-26 12:23:532021-08-26 12:38:11TD9 Dumping Up to 20 Inches on Caymans, Hurricane Likely in Gulf by Sunday
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, forecasts a potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. And it’s following the same track as Harvey – almost four years later to the day.
Current Location of 99L in South-Central Caribbean
A tropical wave currently designated 99L and moving westward in the Caribbean off the coast of Columbia still has no center of circulation. However, global models indicate that it will continue to develop over the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Area of Investigation 99L is that large blob between the eastern tip of Cuba and the northern coast of Colombia.99L on left should reach the southern Gulf by this weekend.
Still a Wide Range of Potential Tracks for 99L
There has been a significant shift during the last 24 hours to the right (east). The majority of the models now show 99L heading in the direction of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. However, models also show a wide range of potential tracks from northern Mexico to the Mississippi coast.
The black line is the most likely track but uncertainty remains high.
So, a fair amount of uncertainty exists in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. The lack of a defined surface center at the moment increases that uncertainty.
Hurricane Harvey’s track in 2017. Note the similarity in area of origin and projected paths. Also note where Harvey intensified.
This weekend will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey. It’s eerie to note the similarities between that storm and this one.
Intensification Very Likely
Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification.
Nearly all global models see 99L turning into a hurricane. Some see it turning into an intense hurricane in the Gulf by early next week.
Lindner warns that It is too early to start discussing impacts because of the uncertainty on the track. However, he does see increasing tides and 10-15 foot waves from Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend.
“Obviously,” says Lindner, “the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.”
Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2021 based on information from HCFCD, NOAA, NHC and Tropical Tidbits
1457 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/two_atl_5d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-08-25 11:39:052021-08-25 11:54:07So Far, 99L Headed Toward Gulf Along Same Track as Harvey
For more than a year, HCFCD has excavated Ben’s Branch in four different phases. However, significant sediment remained under the Kingwood Drive Bridge. That’s property owned and maintained by the City of Houston. And now they are excavating that to eliminate a bottleneck. Such bottlenecks can back water up, damaging homes and businesses.
Photographs by Stan Sarman on 8/24/2021. Taken along Ben’s Branch looking north toward Kingwood Drive.The excavation also affected the area between the two halves of Kingwood Drive.Sediment will drain and dry before being removed from the banks.
According to Sarman, who talked with the construction manager, after the crew completes work here, it will remove sediment from the bottleneck at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch next to the fire station on Kingwood Drive.
These are little things that make a big difference to people who previously flooded. And there were plenty of them along Ben’s Branch, especially in the Town Center Area. Some businesses still haven’t recovered. The shopping center north of these photos is still largely vacant thanks to catastrophic flooding during Harvey and a ditch whose conveyance was severely reduced, in part, by bottlenecks like this one.
Thanks go to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and his staff at the District E council office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2021 with photos from Stan Sarman
1456 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210824-IMG_6790.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2021-08-24 18:15:242021-08-24 18:15:28City Starting to Excavate Bottlenecks Under Kingwood Drive
As we approach the 4th anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, the Atlantic basin is currently heating up with tropical activity. As remnants of one hurricane washing across New England, two more areas of concern move toward the Northeast. A third is heading toward the northwest Caribbean. It’s still too early to tell exactly where these storms will make landfall. But the presence of so many tropical disturbances signals the need to stay alert to daily weather forecasts.
Each of these storms has a 40-60% chance of tropical formation.
Five Day Outlook for Tropical Activity
8 PM outlook on 8/23/2021 indicates the storms heading toward the NW Caribbean have a 50% chance of tropical formation in the next five days. That’s up from 30% this morning.
Retreat of High-Pressure System Over Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions favor gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
In addition to that, another major low pressure area over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche could move into the Gulf by this weekend though no tropical activity is forecast at this time.
Note massive low pressure system moving into Gulf.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, warns that as the high pressure ridge currently sitting over Houston begins to retreat north by Wednesday, “A series of tropical waves and disturbances will move from east to west across the US Gulf coast and into coastal TX from mid week onward. With a significant influx of Gulf moisture, showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Wednesday across much of the area and last likely into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing threat by late week and this weekend with tropical moisture firmly in place over the region.”
Historical Norms for Late August
NOAA’s Climate Center shows that the projected path of the current areas of concern should follow historical norms for this time of the year.
This diagram shows the most likely areas for formation for hurricanes in August and their prevailing tracks. Source: NOAA’s Climate Center.
This is one of the reasons why.
Current sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are running 1.5 to 2+ degrees degrees above normal for the next seven days, with the warmer areas nearer the Texas Coast.
Historical Intervals Between Major Hurricanes
NOAA’s Climate Center shows the average interval for major hurricanes striking the Houston area is about every 25 years.
NOAA’s Climate Center also tracks the average return period for MAJOR hurricanes at various points along the coastline. They show that the Houston area can expect on average one major hurricane about every 25 years.
Of course, a hurricane doesn’t have to be major to cause major damage. Allison and Imelda were just tropical storms. And averages are just that – averages. Ike in 2008 and Harvey in 2017 each attained major hurricane status and hit Houston within 9 years of each other.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1455 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-08-23 20:07:252021-08-23 20:10:00Atlantic Basin Heating Up with Potential Tropical Activity
Late this week and early next will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey’s four day rampage through the Houston area. The storm broke so many records that NOAA retired its name. A year later, still reeling from the storm’s effects, Harris County voters approved a $2.5 billion bond issue to catch up with decades of chronic underfunding for HCFCD.
Since then, the rate of spending on flood mitigation projects has more than doubled. And the rate will accelerate even more as more projects move from engineering to construction.
High-Level Findings
Three years into a 10-year bond, HCFCD has spent slightly more than 30% of the money. That puts them exactly on track time-wise.
$251 million in contracts have been awarded to engineering companies
$552 million in contracts have been awarded for construction of capital improvements and repairs.
27 projects have completed, removing 11,000 homes from 100-year floodplains
Another 660 buyouts have been completed with another 662 in process.
Back in 2018, the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) vowed to be open and transparent with bond funds. This report shows how, when, and where it spent the public’s money.
Accurate Snapshot of Progress
Until now, HCFCD’s website was the primary means for communicating with the public. But information was scattered across hundreds of pages and updates took place incrementally. That meant information on some watersheds was current and others could be months old. That made it difficult to get an accurate snapshot of progress.
To rectify this problem, HCFCD last week released the first in a series of new monthly reports. It gives everybody in every watershed information about what’s happening that affects them…at a glance.
Types of Information Included
The first report is 37 pages and tracks spending through the end of July 2021.
It’s broken down into a series of sections that include:
An introduction that summarizes active bond projects, grants, local partner funding, buyouts, contracts awarded, projects completed, community engagement, floodplain preservation, selective clearing and turf establishment
A visual timeline that tracks the progress of projects by month and year
Key performance metrics
Recent news
A GANNT chart showing the stages and progress of every single project approved by voters
Eight maps showing cumulative spending from different sources of funding
Two maps showing the location and spending to date on all active construction and maintenance projects in the county.
The Ultimate Go-To Doc on Where Your Money Has Gone
This is the ultimate go-to document for everyone who wants to know what’s happening near them. And HCFCD vows to update it monthly.
If you compare this to articles I previously published on funding, keep in mind that this data includes:
Four more months of spending
Only spending starting August 2018 (approval of the bond fund).
So numbers may vary from posts you see on ReduceFlooding’s Funding page. I also included historical spending going back to 2000 to help put the current spending in context.
Replacing Fear with Facts
All in all, HCFCD’s monthly spending reports will advance the public dialog. It will be good to have discussions based on facts, not just fear.
Flooding is one of the most terrible things that can happen to someone. It produces lasting trauma and alters the trajectory of lives.
To complicate matters, not many people understand what a flood control project is. They may see a jogging trail in a park and not realize it is a massive flood detention basin. They may not realize that a channel through their neighborhood has been widened. And they likely don’t know how to track historical gage data to see if their neighborhoods are flooding from bayous or streets.
This report won’t solve all those problems. But it will go a long way toward helping people understand they have not been forgotten.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2021
1454 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210822-Screen-Shot-2021-08-22-at-12.37.32-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C925&ssl=19251200adminadmin2021-08-22 12:48:392021-08-22 12:57:08HCFCD Issues Update on Bond Spending In Advance of Harvey’s Fourth Anniversary
Public comment periods are not only for those who object to plans. The public may also support plans. And I plan to support the plan.
Cross section of proposed improvements to dam.
The Corps’ website contains the full public notice, which features a summary of the project, the project plans, and an analysis of the alternatives. These are much more thorough and detailed than any documents published to date. For the historical record, I have copied them to Reports Page of this website under the “Lake Houston Dam Spillway Improvement Project” tab. See:
The City of Houston proposes to improve 1,000 feet of the uncontrolled Ambursen spillway with the installation of new, controlled, Obermeyer spillway gates along the western portion of the existing Lake Houston Dam structure.
To accomplish this, the existing spillway crest would be lowered approximately 3.5 ft and fitted with an Obermeyer spillway gate structure. To further stabilize the dam structure, 150,000 cubic yards of rubble backfill will be deposited within the same 1,000 ft of the existing concrete structure.
The temporary cofferdam would be installed in sections that would enable the construction of a single Obermeyer spillway gate at a time. To facilitate access from the downstream side, backfill would then be installed within the Ambursen bays and in the downstream concrete-lined channel.
The spillway crest of the existing Ambursen spillway would then be demolished and the new concrete crest with the associated Obermeyer spillway gates and hydromechanical works would be built. The timeframe to complete this project will be approximately 18 to 24 months.
Avoidance and Minimization of Negative Impacts
The City conducted a thorough and extensive planning process to design a project that avoids and minimizes impacts to wetlands, special aquatic sites, and Waters of the United States as much as possible and feasible, while also satisfying the need.
During Hurricane Harvey, rainwater entered the lake at a rate of 430,000 cubic feet per second. An estimated 20,000 homes and businesses were flooded upstream. The reservoir passed the equivalent of its own storage capacity every half hour.
Due to the large influx of water over a short amount of time, the Lake Houston Dam was not able to release water fast enough to protect area homes, businesses, and public infrastructure from floodwater. Improvements are needed to the Lake Houston Dam to enable controlled releases ahead of major storm events and to further stabilize the 70-year-old structure.
This 36-page analysis shows the alternatives considered by project engineers. It also contains a matrix comparing the pros and cons of 11 alternatives, and which among them was the Least Environmentally Damaging Practicable Alternative.
By improving the existing dam, floodwaters can be rapidly released under controlled circumstances or stored to meet drinking water needs.
Please Support
Lake Houston Area leaders identified the need for a larger release capacity early on as one of three primary objectives (upstream detention to slow down inbound water, dredging to speed up throughput, and more gates to speed up outflow).
Approximately 20,000 homes and businesses flooded when water could not get out of the lake fast enough. We need this project.
Benefits of the project include:
Reduction of flood heights
Protection of property
Faster release rate reduces uncertainty associated with pre-releases when attempting to add extra capacity to the lake in advance of approaching storms.
Saves water needed for drinking
How to Submit Comments
To support this project, email comments to the Regulatory Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District by clicking this link: Public Notice Comment Email. Make sure you reference the public notice number: SWG-2020-00271, and be sure to include your name address, and phone number.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/21
1453 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20210821-Screen-Shot-2021-08-21-at-12.28.01-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C546&ssl=15461200adminadmin2021-08-21 13:39:392021-08-21 13:39:46Public Comment Period on Gates Closes Monday
