Nephew Izzy A Shoe-in for Deputy County Administrator Job

My weird nephew Izzy called me the other day. He was so excited, he could barely contain himself and probably didn’t. Thankfully, it wasn’t a video call.

Our family knows Izzy as the guy who’s ten cents short of a dime. Izzy graduated from college with the lowest possible grades you could get and still earn a bachelor’s degree. He managed to cram four years of college into seven years. Luckily, extracurricular activities helped land him a job as a bartender at the notorious Crystal Pistol.

Job Description and Benefits Have Izzy in Tizzy

I asked what had him so excited. His manager told him about a job listing for “Deputy County Administrator-Resilience and Infrastructure.”

Harris County from over I-10 looking west at downtown Houston and the I-69 split.

I quickly looked it up and couldn’t believe my eyes. It required only a bachelor’s degree and reportedly paid well into six figures. After ten years, Izzy is still trying to get into the two figure bracket.

Izzy has a hard time managing his bubble-gum budget. And the county job entails supervising the expenditure of billions of dollars. But Izzy swore he could do it. “Already got me a pocket calculator, Uncle Bob,” he said confidently.

“It’s good to think ahead, Izzy,” I said trying to encourage him, but not quite sure what to say. As I continued to browse through the job requirements…

Imagine my surprise when I learned that you did not need an engineering degree to supervise hundreds of engineers in the County Engineers Department, Flood Control District and Toll Road Authority.

Neither do you need any accounting experience to manage the $800 million per year that the Toll Road Authority brings in – or the $5 billion flood bond. But you do need to know how to operate a telephone. Seriously. That’s why Izzy figured he was a shoe-in.

Undaunted, Izzy pointed out that the job comes with a desk chair. Not to mention other benefits, including:

  • Dental
  • Vision
  • Life Insurance
  • Long-term disability
  • 10 days of vacation each year for the first five (5) years of service
  • 10 county holidays plus one (1) floating holiday
  • Dependent Care Reimbursement

Dependent care really rang his chimes. Even though Izzy is only 32, he pays child support for eight kids. But even with that, dependent care is not the biggest attraction for my nephew.

Izzy would get to ride Metro for free. That appealed because riding his bike to work has its drawbacks in August and September. He can only afford to wash his uniform once a week. No wonder the manager referred him to the County job!

The Resilient Izzy

But Izzy as usual saw the bright side. “Hey, it’s an online application. I won’t even have to buy deodorant.”

Reviewing more job requirements, I asked Izzy if he was certain he could solve “complex operational and structural challenges.” 

“Damn straight,” he fired back. “I can pour drinks with both hands and feet tied behind my back without spilling a drop. Show me another bartender that can do that!” I wasn’t going to argue the point with Izzy. I figured, at a minimum, his attitude could teach Harris County a thing or two about resilience.

“But do you have the ability to ‘thrive in ambiguity,’ Izzy?”

“What’s ambiguity?”

“That’s where your boss doesn’t tell you what to do,” I said.

He exploded with enthusiasm. “Damn! This job was MADE for me,” he shouted!

Interfacing with Local Officials

“It also says here you’d have to interface with local officials.”

“Hell, I know half of ’em from down at the Crystal Pistol,” he said. “That’s where you really get things done. In the back room.”

Izzy had an answer for everything. I was beginning to think he just might have the right stuff for the job.

Undaunted, I pointed out that he needed five years of supervisory experience.

“I’ve been supervising the dancers at the club longer than that!” he said with a smile that I could hear over the phone. “What else? Give me something harder.”

“Says here you need five years of experience designing, managing, constructing or operating major infrastructure projects.”

Izzy Plugs His Infrastructure Experience

Izzy fell silent. After a long, thoughtful moment, he said, “Well, I spend half of each shift in the bathroom and the other half on the phone. So yeah, I got experience operating major infrastructure systems.”

At this point, Izzy had exhausted me. So I said “Go head. Send in your resume.”

“What’s a resume, Uncle Bob?”

It will be tough to beat Izzy’s qualifications for this job, but if you’re interested, hurry. Applications close September 6th.

I didn’t have the heart to tell Izzy that they likely already have someone specific in mind for the job. Why else would you write a job description that involves managing half the county and fits Nephew Izzy?

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/2021

1464 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

TCEQ Commissioners to Consider Agreed Order With Double Oak Construction on Woodridge Village Enforcement Action

The month after Woodridge Village flooded Elm Grove Village and North Kingwood Forest for the first time in May, 2019, the TCEQ investigated construction practices there. In the ensuing months, six investigations found 13 violations on the Woodridge site.

More than two years later, the charges against Double Oak Construction will finally be heard by TCEQ Commissioners in their September 9 meeting. This is basically a water quality case that has to do with pollution of Taylor Gully, the San Jacinto East Fork and Lake Houston. Charges include failure to:

  • Prevent sediment-laden discharge
  • Prepare a Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan
  • Correctly identify receiving waters for the discharge
  • Implement and maintain effective best management practices.

On TCEQ Commissioners Docket for September 9

Item 29 on their docket reads:

No. 2019-1513-WQ-E. Consideration of an Agreed Order assessing administrative penalties and requiring certain actions of Double Oak Construction, Inc. in Montgomery County; RN110478583; for water quality violations pursuant to Tex. Water Code chs. 7 and 26 and the rules of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, including specifically 30 Tex. Admin. Code ch. 60.

Water samples taken by the investigators showed that at the outfall:

  • Total Suspended Solids were 70 times higher compared to upstream
  • Total Dissolved Solids were almost 18 times higher.

Double Oak had been hired to clear and grub the site. That means removing trees and roots.

Unchecked erosion from site polluted water downstream with suspended solids 70 times higher than upstream.
Abel Vera had to grab his car to avoid slipping in ankle-deep sediment on Village Springs. Vera lives next to Woodridge.

Definition of Agreed Order

This enforcement action by the TCEQ falls into a category called an “Agreed Order.” A website called USLegal.com defines an agreed order as: “An Agreed Order refers to a written agreement submitted by the parties to a case resolving the issues between them. Once the agreed order is approved by the court and entered in its minutes, it becomes the order or decree of the court with all of the force and effect that any order would have after a full hearing prior to adjudication.” 

However, they add: “…until then, an ‘agreed order’ is no order at all, but merely an agreement of the parties. It has no significance … until a judicial … decision gives it significance.” TCEQ Commissioners will take that step on September 9.

Double Oak Penalties Unclear

Documents supplied in response to a FOIA request did not discuss what the penalties might entail for Double Oak. The company left the construction site long ago. It has since been sold to Harris County Flood Control and the City of Houston for a regional stormwater detention basin and sewage treatment plant. So it’s not as if Double Oak can make good by simply agreeing to clean up its act.

Typically, such cases involve a modest fine. The significance in this case: Double Oak apparently is admitting wrongdoing before a decision or settlement has been reached in hundreds of homeowner lawsuits downstream. More on those at a later date.

For More Information

For more on what led to the lawsuits, see:

Elm Grove Residents Look for Answers and Don’t Have to Look Far

What Went Wrong Part 1

What Went Wrong Part 2

What Went Wrong Part 3

What Went Wrong Part 4

What Went Wrong Part 5

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/31/2021

1463 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 712 Days since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

MoCo Judge Dismisses Lake Conroe Association Lawsuit Against SJRA With Prejudice

Judge Michael Mayes of the 284th Judicial District Court in Montgomery County filed an order today dismissing the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) lawsuit against the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA). But the most significant part of the dismissal was the way he did it.

Judge Mays dismissed the case WITH PREJUDICE FOR WANT OF JURISDICTION.

Meaning of “With Prejudice” and “Want of Jurisdiction”

“With prejudice” means that the plaintiff cannot refile charges in another court. Basically, the court is saying that it found the case meritless. One lawyer told me, “It’s like saying, ‘Don’t waste the court’s time anymore.'”

The massive floodgates on Lake Conroe (above) have 15X the release capacity of Lake Houston’s. The seasonal lake lowering program was conceived in part as a way to give Lake Houston more time to shed water in advance of major storms.

Re: Plea to the Jurisdiction, according to the website Houston Courts and Cases, “In Texas…A plea to the jurisdiction can challenge either the sufficiency of the plaintiff’s pleadings or the existence of jurisdictional facts.”

In April 2021, the Judge dismissed the case against the City of Houston for want of jurisdiction, but the case against the SJRA remained active until today.

The ruling means that the SJRA’s Seasonal Lake Lowering Plan may remain in effect.

Purpose of Lake Lowering Plan

The Seasonal Lake-Lowering Plan was conceived shortly after Harvey as a way to provide an extra measure of flood protection for the Lake Houston Area while it implemented other flood-mitigation measures such as dredging and additional gates for the Lake Houston spillway. By creating extra storage capacity within Lake Conroe during the wettest months of the year, the SJRA hoped to reduce the risk associated with another massive release like the 79,000 cubic feet per second during Harvey. By itself, that was the ninth largest flood in West Fork history.

2800 Pages of Legal Briefs Come to a 102-Word End

The Lake Conroe Association pulled out the stops for this lawsuit. It filed approximately 2800 pages of legal briefs in four months, ran out of money, and started begging with residents to donate more so it could continue the fight. Today’s ruling will put an end to that.

Reality repeatedly contradicted the LCA’s factual claims. LCA claimed:

  • Home values around Lake Conroe would plummet because of the plan. They increased.
  • The school district would run out of money. It didn’t.
  • Nature would not be able to recharge the lake after a lowering. It did. Repeatedly.
  • Lake Conroe was not conceived as a flood-control lake. Flood control is a key element of SJRA’s charter.
  • The lowering would not help protect people in the Lake Houston Area. It did.
  • The City of Houston committed fraud … by calling for the release of its own water.

In contrast to (or maybe because of) the 2800 pages of legal briefs, today’s court order was mercifully brief – 102 words.

“On this 30th day of August, 2021, came on before the Court San Jacinto River Authority’s Plea to the Jurisdiction, and after considering same, all Answers, Responses, Replies, pleadings, stipulations, evidence, affidavits and attachments filed by the parties, all statutory and caselaw authorities, and all arguments relating thereto, the Court was of the opinion that the following Order should be entered; it is therefore ORDERED, ADJUDGED AND DECREED that San Jacinto River Authority’s Plea to the Jurisdiction be, and it is hereby, GRANTED AND SUSTAINED, and that the above Cause be, and it is hereby, DISMISSED WITH PREJUDICE FOR WANT OF JURISDICTION.”

Now a Meaningful Dialog Can Begin

I’m sure this must come as a bitter blow for some residents of Lake Conroe who supported the long court battle. But perhaps some good will come from the clarity that now exists.

Hopefully, this will open the door to reasonable people who wish to craft a long-term joint management plan for both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. The people of this region are inextricably bound together by the need to balance water and flood control. Perhaps now we can start a meaningful dialog that addresses both.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/30/2021

1162 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Cat-4 Ida Hits Louisiana with 150 MPH Winds and 12-Foot Storm Surge

The forecasts turned out to be accurate. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55 am today at Port Fourchon, LA with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930mb.” Storm surge at the coast is 12 feet above ground level.

Image from RadarScope Pro from KLIX New Orleans Radar.

Wind Reports

Although Ida’s extreme winds are confined to the inner eyewall, aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 nautical miles to the northeast of the center. Based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends outward about 130 nautical miles northeast of the center. Here are some readings as of 1PM Sunday 8/29/2021.

Grand Isle: 146mph (unconfirmed)

Port Fourchon: 153mph (unconfirmed ship)

West Delta Oil Platform: 149mph (elevated just off the coast)

Wind Forecast

For those with friends and relatives in Louisiana who did not evacuate, the National Weather Service predicts that winds will remain over 100 mph for the next 12 hours, decrease to 60 within 24 hours, the drop to 35 mph within 36 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected in metropolitan New Orleans.

Misery Not Yet Over

The storm should follow this track.

Ida’s track will take it over portions of Tennessee severely damaged by flash flooding last weekend.
Large portions of SE Louisiana could see 15-20 inches of rain.
Most of the state has a moderate to high risk of flash flooding.

“Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts,” says the NHC. “As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.”

Storm Surge

Storm surge has deadly potential along the coast. NHC calls it, “Extremely life-threatening.” And they say, “Overtopping of local levees … is possible.”

Surge recorded so far:

East Bank Mississippi River (South of New Orleans): 12.15ft (AGL)

Shell Beach: 7.51ft (AGL)

Grand Isle: 6-8 ft (AGL)

Thus far all federal levee protection and floodgates/walls are preforming as expected. Catastrophic impacts will continue inland over southeast Louisiana into tonight.

I was planning on doing a 4-year retrospective on Harvey today, but will postpone that out of deference to the suffering east of us. Thoughts and prayers for our neighbors who provided so much help in our hour of need.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD

1161 Days since Hurricane Harvey

City of Houston Posts Request for Qualifications to Develop Long-Range Dredging Plan

On August 20, 2021, four-years after Harvey inundated Humble/Kingwood and 20 months after the City of Houston started dredging the San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar, the City finally posted a request for qualifications to develop a long-range dredging plan for the Lake Houston Area.

The plan will cover the entire Lake Houston Area including: publicly owned canals, inlets, and coves; the West Fork up to I-69, and the East Fork to the confluence with Caney Creek. The City wants the plan finished within two years.

Plan Scope

Scope of the long-range dredging plan includes:

Developing a digital terrain model that updates Texas Water Development Board models developed in 2011 and 2018 to reflect dredging activity that has taken place since then.

  • Verifying where and how quickly sediment accumulates.
  • Determining ownership of private canals and legal obstacles associated with dredging them.
  • Identifying disposal sites for the dredging spoils.
  • Investigating costs for both mechanical and hydraulic dredging through both private and public entities.
  • Exploring options for future funding of maintenance dredging.

Evaluation Criteria

Firms will be evaluated on:

  • Responsiveness of their submissions to the criteria outlined.
  • Technical competence, which is a composite of:
    • Firm Qualifications
    • Expertise, experience and qualifications of key personnel
    • Project approach to meeting deliverables, managing risk, and managing work
    • Proposed plan and strategy for meeting project schedules
    • Success with similar projects in the past
    • Participation by Minority/Women-Owned Business Enterprises
    • Financial stability

Extra brownie points go to local businesses.

lf you own or work for a firm that might be interested in responding, here is the complete list of requirements for applicants and forms required for filing.

Progress of Current Dredging

Since my last update three weeks ago, dredgers has moved into the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.

Dredgers have finally entered the channel between the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto on their way to the East Fork. Photo taken 8/28/2021
Since my last update on August 6, 2021, the dredging has moved another 600 feet into the channel connecting the East and West Forks south of Royal Shores.

Four Years Ago Tonight

The current rate of dredging is consistent with the rate observed on August 6, about 200 feet per week. At this rate, it will take another two months until contractors even reach the East Fork. And at least another two years before we get a long-range dredging plan. That will be six years after Harvey.

It was around noon on August 28, 2017, that the SJRA began releasing 79,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. All that water arrived in the Kingwood area in the wee hours of August 29 on top of another 160,000 CFS from other sources. Along the way it swept through sand mines and deposited sediment at the mouth of the West Fork that has taken four years and more than $114 million so far to dredge.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2021

1460 Days (four years) since Hurricane Harvey

Ida Now Hurricane, Predicted to Intensify to Category 4, Take Aim at New Orleans

As of 3 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center indicated Tropical Storm Ida had intensified into a hurricane about to cross over the western tip of Cuba. They warn that it could turn into a category 4 hurricane. It is currently predicted to cross over Louisiana, dump up to 20 inches of rain, and produce 15 feet of storm surge on Sunday.

Warnings Now In Effect

The NHC has also posted several warnings. They include:

  • Storm Surge Warning from Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
  • Hurricane Warning for the coast of Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and Metropolitan New Orleans.
  • Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
  • Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
Hurricane Ida over the western tip of Cuba as of 3PM Houston time on 8/27/2021

Rapid Intensification

According to the National Hurricane Center, radar indicated a closed eye 24 nautical miles wide. Recon aircraft measured winds at 70 knots – hurricane intensity – at 3 PM Houston time.

Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through very warm waters, low wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions should result in rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.

In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased.

Models now predict Ida will reach category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.

National Hurricane Center

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. Models also call for Ida’s wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward at about 14 mph.

Tracking Quickly Toward Louisiana Then Slowing

Steering currents push Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. But Ida after landfall they will also slow northward motion and cause the system to turn northeastward.

Key Messages

However, remember not to focus on the exact details of the track. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center, says the NHC.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions will continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

Story of the Storm in Picture

Confidence in track is increasing. Ida should reach the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts by Sunday afternoon.
…but tropical-storm-force winds should arrive by Sunday morning.
Most of the Houston area only has about a 10-30% chance of experience tropical-storm-force winds.
And we have practically no chance of excessive rainfall that could create flash flooding.
Portions of Louisiana, however, will like see 15-20 inches of rain.
But the biggest threat by far to our neighbors will come from storm surge. Portions of the delta could see as much as 15 feet above ground level.

Prays for our neighbors. And thank God that we’re on the dry side of this storm. It should hit on August 29th, the fourth anniversary of when Hurricane Harvey triggered massive evacuations in the Lake Houston Area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/2021

1459 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The Future that Houston Envisioned for 1990 … in 1968

1968 … the year that humans first traveled around the moon during the Apollo 8 mission. It was a triumphant time for America and Houston, home of the NASA “Manned Spacecraft Center,” its name at the time. We could do anything, it seemed. And we did.

1968 Plan for 1990

A reader recently sent me a preliminary plan developed in 1968 called Houston 1990. The Honorable Louis Welch was Mayor and Intercontinental Airport was still a year away from opening. And the Houston Planning Commission (which developed the plan) clearly had its eye on supporting future growth. The plan discussed new water sources, transportation corridors, green space, cultural amenities, employment centers, retail centers, housing choices and more.

Not all of ideas became reality. But most did.

Hits and Misses

For instance, the plan talks about an “emerging” office, retail and high-rise residential area near Westheimer and West Loop 610. (The Galleria?) It also mentions an emerging business area near Holcomb and Main (The Medical Center?) It predicted the continued dominance of single-family housing and the need outlying employment centers as Houston expanded so people could continue to live near where they worked.

For older Houstonians, this will be a nostalgic trip on Rocky and Bullwinkle’s “wayback machine.”

For younger Houstonians, it will be a lesson in the value of planning. For instance, future transportation options can be taken off the table if land isn’t set aside early enough and people build homes on it. That’s why it’s interesting to see something that looks like a network of greenbelts where the Grand Parkway is now.

But people also ignored parts of the plan. For instance, the need for flood control. The plan designated wide green spaces around bayous and creeks which were largely undeveloped at the time. They could have been used for detention ponds and channel expansion as development pushed outward.

Reservoirs that Never Happened

The plan also showed large reservoirs.

  • One was immediately west of what is now Kingwood where Spring and Cypress Creeks come together with the San Jacinto West Fork near I-69.
  • Another was west of a tiny town in the hinterlands called Tomball on Spring Creek.
  • A third was on the Brazos River near Richmond and Rosenberg.
  • And the fourth was a sprawling affair north of Lake Houston that took in portions of Peach and Caney Creeks, the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.

Not one of these reservoirs was developed. And with few exceptions, none of the land along the bayous was set aside. The land along the rivers and streams became settled. And now those areas flood significantly during heavy rains.

Olive-colored areas represent open spaces recommended as set-asides for recreation, water resources, and flood control. However, little of the land was actually set aside for those purposes. The large green ring around the City is now the Grand Parkway.

Difficulty of Flood Mitigation After Development

The planned lake west of Kingwood is now sand mines and subdivisions. Lake Conroe would be built in 1973, five years later farther upstream. And Kingwood started building out in the early 1970s.

Building flood mitigation projects along these waterways now would be difficult. It often requires buyouts that can take a decade or more. This problem was foreseen. People were already building up to the edge of bayous, as you can see in the enlarged portion of the map below that shows Halls Bayou.

Halls Bayou in 1968. Note the green areas suggested as set-asides for “open space” along the bayou where development was already crowding the stream banks, leaving few options for flood control.

Many outlying areas that were sparsely populated in 1968 would follow the Halls Bayou pattern.

People would demand flood mitigation after, not before development.

However, that can become expensive and controversial as we saw this week in Huffman. Some areas there along Luce Bayou flooded badly during Harvey and Imelda. Harris County Flood Control District commissioned a flood-mitigation study that recommended a construction of bypass channel (see sections 4.1.3 and 4.1.4).

But local opposition developed from homeowners whose property would be affected. They fought the project. Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia killed it in the 8/24/21 Commissioner’s Court meeting, citing local opposition. That left Huffman with no immediate flood-mitigation hopes after three years of study and planning.

For Complete 1968 Study

For a high resolution PDF of the entire 1968 plan and accompanying text, click here. (Caution: 33″x30″, 14 megabyte file. Best viewed on large screen. )

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/2021

1459 Days after Hurricane Harvey

TD9 Dumping Up to 20 Inches on Caymans, Hurricane Likely in Gulf by Sunday

As of this 11 a.m this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Invest 99L has turned into Tropical Depression 9 (TD9). Satellite imagery now shows circulation in the area of low pressure over the west-central Caribbean which I posted about yesterday. Cuba and the Caymans have already issued tropical-storm warnings. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected there. And the storm should strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Yet the effects on the Houston region will like be felt offshore and in coastal areas.

Center of circulation starting to form. NOAA Satellite image as of 9:50 a.m. CDT on August 26, 2021.

TD9 Current Intensity and Location

The initial intensity of TD9 as of 11 a.m. Houston time is approximately 35 mph with gusts to 40. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system’s structure and intensity.

TD9, now located just south of Grand Cayman, is moving northwestward at 13 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates the system should move steadily northwestward. That would bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approaching the US Central Gulf coast on Sunday.

Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the track forecast for TD9. However, error at Day 4 is around 175 miles, so don’t focus on details of the long-range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined, according to the NHC.

The cone of uncertainty for TD9 at this point stretches all the way from Houston to Mississippi. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of being hit.

TD9 will move over warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening.

Rapid Intensification Likely in Next 48 to 72 Hours

NHC forecasts TD9 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. It could approach hurricane strength as it passes western Cuba.

Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions support additional strengthening. The NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification between 48 and 72 hours for now.

The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Most global models show significant intensification of TD9 over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.

Key Messages

1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday, with dangerous storm surge possible in western Cuba.

2. The system will likely produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. This system should approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Most of the Houston area has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from this storm.
Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive by early Sunday morning.

Likely Hazards in Islands and Mainland

The main hazards associated with TD9 as it passes Cuba and the Caymans will be:

STORM SURGE:

2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND:

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and Cuba on Friday.

RAINFALL:

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF:

Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Lindner Cautiously Optimistic At This Point

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist believes, “Impacts along the upper TX coast will likely be increasing swells and minor coastal flooding at high tide late this weekend into early next week.”

Monitor forecasts closely in case things change and be prepared for anything. We still won’t reach the peak of hurricane season until mid-September.

Statistical peak of Hurricane Season is September 10.

Posted by Bob Rehak at noon on 8/26/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD

1458 Days after Hurricane Harvey

So Far, 99L Headed Toward Gulf Along Same Track as Harvey

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, forecasts a potential hurricane threat for the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. And it’s following the same track as Harvey – almost four years later to the day.

Current Location of 99L in South-Central Caribbean

A tropical wave currently designated 99L and moving westward in the Caribbean off the coast of Columbia still has no center of circulation. However, global models indicate that it will continue to develop over the western Caribbean Sea either Friday or Saturday and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Area of Investigation 99L is that large blob between the eastern tip of Cuba and the northern coast of Colombia.
99L on left should reach the southern Gulf by this weekend.

Still a Wide Range of Potential Tracks for 99L

There has been a significant shift during the last 24 hours to the right (east). The majority of the models now show 99L heading in the direction of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. However, models also show a wide range of potential tracks from northern Mexico to the Mississippi coast. 

The black line is the most likely track but uncertainty remains high.

So, a fair amount of uncertainty exists in the forecast, especially since there is such spread in the ensemble guidance. The lack of a defined surface center at the moment increases that uncertainty. 

Hurricane Harvey’s track in 2017. Note the similarity in area of origin and projected paths. Also note where Harvey intensified.

This weekend will be the fourth anniversary of Harvey. It’s eerie to note the similarities between that storm and this one.

Intensification Very Likely

Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable for intensification. 

Nearly all global models see 99L turning into a hurricane. Some see it turning into an intense hurricane in the Gulf by early next week.

Lindner warns that It is too early to start discussing impacts because of the uncertainty on the track. However, he does see increasing tides and 10-15 foot waves from Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase starting today and remain high into the weekend. 

“Obviously,” says Lindner, “the forecast and potential impacts will have significant changes as the track become more clear in the coming days.”

Residents and interest along the TX and LA coast should review hurricane plans and make sure hurricane supplies are fully stocked. Monitor forecasts closely and frequently.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2021 based on information from HCFCD, NOAA, NHC and Tropical Tidbits

1457 Days since Hurricane Harvey

City Starting to Excavate Bottlenecks Under Kingwood Drive

For more than a year, HCFCD has excavated Ben’s Branch in four different phases. However, significant sediment remained under the Kingwood Drive Bridge. That’s property owned and maintained by the City of Houston. And now they are excavating that to eliminate a bottleneck. Such bottlenecks can back water up, damaging homes and businesses.

Photographs by Stan Sarman on 8/24/2021. Taken along Ben’s Branch looking north toward Kingwood Drive.
The excavation also affected the area between the two halves of Kingwood Drive.
Sediment will drain and dry before being removed from the banks.

According to Sarman, who talked with the construction manager, after the crew completes work here, it will remove sediment from the bottleneck at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch next to the fire station on Kingwood Drive.

These are little things that make a big difference to people who previously flooded. And there were plenty of them along Ben’s Branch, especially in the Town Center Area. Some businesses still haven’t recovered. The shopping center north of these photos is still largely vacant thanks to catastrophic flooding during Harvey and a ditch whose conveyance was severely reduced, in part, by bottlenecks like this one.

Thanks go to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and his staff at the District E council office.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2021 with photos from Stan Sarman

1456 Days since Hurricane Harvey