The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin. The one closest to the Caribbean rates a 70% chance of development. The system is not currently a threat to the Gulf of Mexico but you should keep your eye on it.
According to the NHC, showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados.
Environmental conditions favor additional development. A tropical depression will likely form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance will reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. It will move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and reach Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Radar from Barbados along with satellite images show a broad and elongated area of low pressure with scattered to numerous areas of disorganized convection. Details on the exact track will be important as to determine how much the system will interact with the island chain.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist warns that, “While the system is currently no immediate threat to Texas, residents should at least keep an eye on the forecast for updates over the next week.”
Second Area Less of a Threat
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
The peak of hurricane season is just a little more than a month away. This is the time of year when you should become serious about preparedness if you haven’t already done so.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2021 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD
1441 Days since Hurricane Harvey