Severe Weather Threat Increasing for Tomorrow, Up to 7″ Now Possible

Severe Weather, Flash Flood Likelihood Increasing for Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday

Updated at 7:30 PM:

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, a powerful storm will move into Texas over the next 24 hours bringing multiple hazards to the area. The chances of severe weather and heavy rainfall by Monday afternoon and evening continue to increase. They are also expanding over a wider area. Since the original post, Harris County’s Meteorologist, Jeff Lindner has raised concerns about rises on the San Jacinto River West and East Forks to flood stage over the next few days. Rises on other creeks and bayous in Harris County also look likely, especially where we experience cell training and higher rainfall totals. Lindner advises to monitor weather closely on Monday and Monday night.

Outlook tomorrow for severe weather from the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Higher Likelihood of Severe Weather Including Tornados Starting Monday Afternoon

There were some doubts yesterday about the likelihood for supercells to develop. But as we get closer to the storm’s arrival and certainty increases, supercell formation looks increasingly likely. “All severe modes will be in play including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds,” says Lindner. “There could be a few strong tornadoes, especially for locations north of I-10.” Yesterday, the main likelihood was north of SH105.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the enhanced risk (3 out of 5) outline to include more of Southeast Texas. The severe threat will begin in the mid-afternoon hours on Monday and continue into the late evening hours.

6-7 Inches, Flash Flooding Possible 

While the heaviest rainfall will likely occur over North Texas, the potential for high-precipitation supercells to develop and train across Southeast Texas is increasing for Monday afternoon and evening. As the front slows over Southeast Texas Monday night, Lindner expects the severe threat to gradually shift toward heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding throughout the night.

The greatest threat will generally be along and north of I-10. A slow-moving line of supercells will raise the flash-flood threat. If you get caught under one that’s training across your area as we saw back in January, be prepared.

Lindner has virtually doubled his rainfall predictions since yesterday. Instead of widespread 0.5-2 inches across the area, he now sees widespread 3-4 inches. And whereas yesterday he saw isolated rainfall totals up to 4 inches, today he estimates up to 6-7 inches.

Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding over urban areas. Street flooding will be the primary threat, but under corridors of excessive rainfall, significant rises on creeks and bayous will be possible.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

In an update at 7:30 PM Sunday night, Lindner specifically mentioned the possibility of the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto rising to flood stage if we receive the higher rainfall totals in the forecast.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the area north of the I-10 corridor to a moderate risk for flash flooding.

National Weather Service outlook tomorrow for excessive rainfall.

Monday afternoon and evening will be active over the area. So have multiple ways to receive warnings. Make sure you have fresh batteries in your weather radio and flashlights; it could be a long night.

Putting Forecast in Perspective

To put this in perspective:

  • The supercells that spawned tornadoes over Kingwood in January dumped approximately 5 inches of rain. I talked with a lady on Facebook this morning whose home was destroyed by a tornado in that storm. She said she received warnings seconds before the tornado struck. She barely had enough time to get to an interior hallway before her home started crumbling around her.
  • The May 7th, 2019, storm that flooded more than 200 homes in Elm Grove dumped 7 inches of rain. But less than 20% of the floodwater detention capacity on Woodridge Village had been built at that point.
  • The City announced at 5:15 this afternoon that it will lower Lake Houston by 1 foot starting tonight. A forecast greater than 3 inches triggers the Lake Houston lowering protocol.

How To Get Warnings

NOAA broadcasts warnings on weather radio in a continuous loop during emergencies.

The National Weather Service lets you sign up for watches and warnings for your address.

Harris County’s Flood Warning System also lets you sign up to receive rainfall or flooding alerts for your location. The site also contains maps that show real-time rainfall, and river-channel monitoring and forecasting at gages throughout the region.

USGS has a web app called Water On the Go that shows water elevations at flood gages wherever you go in Texas.

Harris County Flood Control District’s Storm Center can connect you to a wide variety of preparedness articles and ways to summon help in an emergency.

A number of companies offer good apps for cell phones that offer warnings. I especially like one called Dark Skies that bills itself as “hyper-local” weather. It frequently tells me to the minute when a storm will arrive at my exact location…wherever I am.

You can also find links to dozens of other weather related apps and sites on my Links Page. Check them out before the storm arrives. You never know when a storm will knock out a web site, a cell tower, or power. So be prepared with multiple backups.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/20/2022 based on input from the NWS, HCFCD and City of Houston

1664 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Severe Weather Predicted Next Monday into Tuesday

I received an email from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, around 1PM today that warned of possible severe weather from next Monday afternoon into early Tuesday Morning. As I explored it more, I also came across a fascinating academic study about the communication of weather risk that you may want to share with friends and relatives. One of the key findings: mobile home owners may need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.

Possible Tornados, Hail, Damaging Winds, Street Flooding Early Next Week

“All severe modes will be in play Monday afternoon and evening including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado threat appears highest north of HWY 105. The severe threat will be lowest near the coast and around Matagorda Bay,” said Lindner. “Heavy rainfall is also becoming an increasing concern.”

While most models show from one half to two inches of rain around Bush Intercontinental Airport, one model predicts four inches. Lindner predicts 1-2 inches of widespread rain north of I-10 with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible.

“Given the dry grounds in place, some of this rainfall will soak in,” says Lindner. “But potential for high hourly rainfall rates poses an urban street flooding threat.” In other words, rain may fall faster than it can soak in or drain off, and then collect in streets.

NWS Cites Conditions Favorable for Supercell Formation

The National Weather Services Storm Prediction Center cites atmospheric conditions favorable to the formation of supercells, such as those that tracked across Harris County in January. Along with these supercells, they discuss the increasing potential for large hail and tornados Monday afternoon.

The Intersection of Weather and Communications

The NWS Storm Prediction Center contains a wealth of information for weather aficionados including academic publications on meteorology. Mindful of how a January tornado struck Kingwood at 1:30AM and also how the Lake Conroe release during Harvey arrived in the middle of the night, the following study caught my eye:

All researchers work in Norman, Oklahoma. They studied what time of day the public was least confident about receiving and responding to tornado warnings. Answer: between midnight and 4:00AM. Not a big surprise there. Most people are sleeping then. But the authors also studied several related questions:

  • Where do most overnight tornados take place?
  • Who is most at risk?
  • How and when can you best communicate that risk to protect lives?
Percent “very” or “extremely” confident in their ability to respond to a tornado warning by time of day. Shading indicates the 95% confidence level.

Findings

The authors found the southeastern portion of the US most susceptible to nocturnal tornadoes. East Texas is on the edge of the highest risk area. They also found that:

  • People’s confidence in their ability to receive warnings is lowest when the risk is highest for these storms.
  • The Southeast has a high rate of mobile home ownership, but mobile home owners don’t always perceive that they have higher risk, a perception that makes them especially vulnerable to tragic outcomes during nocturnal tornado events.
  • The number of weather resources that an individual had access to affected weather awareness and preparedness more than any demographic characteristics.
  • Forecasters and communicators should continue to emphasize the use of multiple forms of communication. They suggest “weather radios, cell phone apps, Wireless Emergency Alerts, and other forms of passive notification systems. Increased use of these tools will ultimately increase the likelihood of someone receiving warning information while they are asleep or otherwise occupied.”
  • The challenges of nocturnal tornadoes cannot be addressed if residents do not receive forecasts or warnings in the first place.
  • People will take action not just on forecasts, but their personal perception of risk. More communication about the degree of risk may help people make better decisions.
  • Forecasters should communicate the degree of risk before 10PM so that people can prepare severe weather plans before they go to sleep.
  • People in mobile housing need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.

These findings should help inform forecasters and emergency managers about communities that need more time to respond to overnight tornado events. In the meantime, change the battery in that old weather radio! It’s springtime in Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/19/2022

1663 Days since Hurricane Harvey

  

 

HUD Approves $750 Million to Harris County for Flood Mitigation

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) approved the Texas General Land Office’s (GLO) amended plan for Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT). The amended plan allocates $750 million in funding for Harris County and an $488 million to the Houston-Galveston Area Council for additional mitigation projects in the region. The funds allocated to the county should now mean that the 2018 flood bond is fully funded, if numbers provided last month on partner funding to date are accurate.

George P. Bush Quote on Process

According to a press release issued by the GLO at 7PM, 3/18/22, “Ensuring Texans receive disaster recovery and mitigation funding in a timely manner to recover from Hurricane Harvey has always been my top priority,” said GLO Commissioner Bush. “The Biden Administration’s politically weaponized Department of Urban Development and Housing has forced us to fight through mazes of red tape to secure this direct allocation for Houstonians. I will continue to fight to send money to Texans as quickly as possible. The $750 million allocation will go directly to Harris County for projects that help mitigate future flooding events, creating a stronger more resilient Texas.”

George P. Bush, Commissioner, Texas General Land Office, 2019 photo

$1.138 Billion Total

HUD’s approval of the latest Harvey Action Plan brings the total infrastructure and mitigation investments in Harris County to more than $1.1 billion. HUD’s approval of the GLO’s plan to provide $750,000,000 to Harris County is in addition to HUD’s direct allocation of $61,884,000 to the City of Houston, plus $117,213,862.96 in CDBG-MIT awards for Harris County projects, plus $209,221,800 in infrastructure funds from CDBG-DR, equals $1,138,319,662.96 in total investment in projects within Harris County. Additionally, H-GAC continues to develop its method of distribution on more than $488 million for mitigation projects within the greater Houston region.

Bush first requested a direct allocation for Harris County in May of 2021 after the county received very little money from the first round of competition for HUD. A direct allocation would have allowed Harris County to work directly with HUD and taken the GLO out of the loop. However, HUD reportedly insisted that the GLO remain involved. Subsequently, the GLO developed a 650-page action plan for the $750 million. However, HUD found it insufficient. As of early this week, the action plan exceeded 1000 pages, according to a GLO spokesperson. That apparently provided HUD what it needed. HUD notified the GLO in a letter received after 5PM today.

Method of Distribution Must Still be Developed

However, Harris County won’t get all the money immediately.

Since last November, H-GAC has been developing something called a MOD (Method of Distribution) for its allocation. However, according to the GLO, because of the expense involved, Harris County has delayed developing its MOD until the the award was approved by HUD.

Harris County’s next step will be to develop its MOD which describes where the money will go, how it will be used, and who will get it. GLO will review that and forward it to HUD. After HUD approves the MOD, HUD still won’t write a check for $750 million to the county. The money will be reimbursed to the county in batches as it is spent on approved projects.

Flood Bond Close to Fully Funded Even without Resilience Trust

Still, this will go a long way toward fulfilling the potential shortfall in partner funding for the Harris County Flood Bond. Of the original $5 billion bond, half is being paid for by Harris County taxpayers. The County hoped to get local, state, and federal partners to fund the other half.

Last July, when it looked like the $750 million might not materialize, Harris County Commissioners approved a Flood Resilience Trust that committed $833 million from the Toll Road Authority and other Harris County sources of funding. That, along with partner funding already committed, was enough to keep construction of Harris County Flood Bond projects rolling through approximately 2026.

From a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force in February 2022.

Today’s approval should make the flood bond fully funded if the numbers above are accurate. That should come as good news for all citizens who have been fighting for limited dollars. With money in the trust, this should accelerate mitigation projects throughout the county. And even fund some not identified in the original bond!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022

1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey

April 7 Meeting on Spring Creek Flood Control Dams

Spring Creek Flood Control Dams are back in the news. The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) recently announced the first of three meetings related to a feasibility study. So save the date – April 7.

According to Matt Barrett of the SJRA, this feasibility study is a continuation of the Spring Creek Siting Study which came out of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan project (SJMDP). The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and multiple partner agencies including SJRA developed the Master Drainage Plan. 

Overview of Feasibility Study 

The Spring Creek Siting Study from December 2020 explored multiple alternative locations that could provide flood-mitigation benefits to the Spring Creek watershed. Two of the more cost-effective were dams on Walnut and Birch Creeks.   

The Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Feasibility Study will include:

  • A conceptual design for each dam
  • Benefits and costs for each dam and a combination of the two dams.  

The goal: to determine the most feasible and economical alternative(s) for possible future design and construction. 

The cost of the study is estimated at $1 million. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) grant program will provide half.  City of Humble, HCFCD, and five (5) Municipal Utility Districts will fund the other half.  SJRA is performing in-kind services to reduce the local match amount to be funded by the Partners. 

One Crucial Step of Many

This project is currently only in the feasibility phase. Construction of one or both dams, if feasible, would likely not occur for several years. Partners still need to identify a project sponsor and funding. They also need to perform final design, obtain environmental permits, and acquire land.

Details of Public Input Meeting

Public input and participation are critical components of this study, and SJRA wants to hear from you.  A public meeting related to the study will be held on/at the following date and location:

Thursday, April 7, 2022 

6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. 

Fields Store Community Center 

26098 FM 362 

Waller, Texas  77484 

The meeting will be in an open-house format, allowing members of the public to come and go at their convenience at any time between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.  A five-minute, high-level, project-summary presentation will be given at 6:00 p.m., 6:30 p.m., 7:00 p.m., and 7:30 p.m.  

Between these presentations, project team members will answer questions and collect input.  If you can’t attend in person, you can view the summary presentation on SJRA’s Facebook page following the meeting. You may also submit questions via email and the project team will answer them. 

Project Location

Below, see preliminary maps.  These project areas could change based on the results of study efforts. 

The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.

The next map shows parcels of land that partners would need to acquire to develop the project(s).

Preliminary map of Birch and Walnut Creeks flood control dams. Extent of inundation limits subject to change during study.
One more public engagement meeting will be held this summer. The third will happen after partners release the draft report in February, next year.

Projected Benefits of Projects

As presently conceived, the Birch Creek dam could reduce water surface elevations by a half foot in a 100-year storm for almost 26 miles downstream. The larger Walnut Creek dam could produce a similar benefit for 41 miles downstream.

Each would cut the annual chance of exceedance (ACE) in half for the people in the affected areas. Thus, a hundred year storm would only have the impact of a 50-year storm.

Barrett currently estimates that the Birch Creek Dam could remove 815 structures from the 100-year floodplain and the Walnut Creek Dam could remove 1205. However, he also points out that those numbers will likely change as a result of updated modeling in the current study now underway.

How much would these dams benefit people in the Lake Houston Area? Barrett admits the impact would be small that far downstream. But he also points out that these represent the first two of 16 similar projects proposed in the Master Drainage Plan, and that they could have a major cumulative impact.

Every little bit helps. Even if you can’t attend the meeting, I hope you submit a public comment via email in support of the project.

How to Learn More and Provide Public Comment

For a fact sheet on each of the two proposed dams, click here.

For more information about the Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Feasibility Study, please visit www.SpringCreekStudy.com.

You can submit comments at the public meeting and throughout the duration of the study. Email comments to floodmanagementdivision@sjra.net, or submitted online at www.SpringCreekStudy.com. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022

1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Laurel Springs RV Resort Update: Mysterious Black Spots and Other News

In the two weeks since I last posted about the “RV Resort” under construction on Laurel Springs Lane, a lot has happened. Among other things, I’ve noticed contractors repeatedly covering up black spots in the detention pond that have a habit of mysteriously reappearing.

Mysterious Black Spots Keep Reappearing

Photo taken 3/5/22. Note difference of color in puddles just inches from each other.
Wide shot also taken on 3/5 shows bulldozer filling in one black area while another leaks into pond. Note streak in water and see below.
Also taken 3/5. Pond was being manually pumped into Lakewood Cove Storm sewer system and thence into Lake Houston. The pumping explains the streak.
On 3/10/22, I noted these black areas at the western end of the pond emerging from freshly bulldozed areas.
Photo taken 3/11. The situation was worse and the bulldozers were back.
On 3/14, the floor of the detention pond had been smoothed out, but the black spots were making another embarrassing comeback.
Close up of same spot taken on 3/15.

I have dozens of other shots that show similar patterns. But you get the idea.

I asked the Railroad Commission if they could identify oil seepage from photos. The answer was no. But they did send an investigator out. Unfortunately, he arrived after everything had been covered up.

The contractor acknowledged the black spots, but claimed they were just seepage from rotting mulch. But why would a contractor place mulch below an area being excavated? That would just raise the level of the pond they were deepening. The mystery continues.

The Railroad Commission of Texas found no records of abandoned oil or gas wells on this property, although many are nearby.

As a show of good faith, I wish the developer would have an independent lab confirm what this stuff is now that it’s being pumped to a storm sewer system that feeds into Lake Houston.

Other Recent Activity

In other news:

  • The developer has removed hundreds of truckloads of debris from below the detention pond.
  • They have excavated material from the southern walls of the pond and moved it north. This effectively shifted the pond back onto the developer’s property while elevating other portions of the property.
  • Contractors erected posts for what appears will be a chain link fence at the southern edge of the resort.
  • Contractors have finished tying the detention pond into the Lakewood Cove Storm Sewer system.
  • They also installed more underground drainage throughout the property.

The photographs below illustrate the points above.

Photo taken 2/23/22 shows part of debris pulled up from south of detention pond. Also note the black spots in the detention pond.
Taken 3/16/22. Photo courtesy of reader. Used with permission. Note fence posts along left. These would appear to confirm the property boundary.
The detention pond intake valve in the foreground is now connected with the pump housings on higher ground. However, the pumps may not yet be installed. And the housing still looks sealed off. Photo taken 3/15/22.
Additional dirt is being brought in to raise the elevation of the site. Photo taken 3/13/22. Note water still ponding on site from a half inch of rain on 3/15. This soil is not as porous as the stormwater pollution prevention plan claims.
Rebar being laid for the next concrete pour on 3/14/22.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/16/22

1660 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

New Caney ISD West Fork High School March Construction Update

One of the largest construction projects currently underway in the Kingwood Area is New Caney ISD’s West Fork High School, south of the HCA Kingwood Medical Center. New Caney ISD provided degrees of completion for all the trades associated with the project as of March 2022.

  • Athletic fields and structures – 70%
  • Concrete masonry 65%
  • Rough electrical – 80%
  • Rough mechanical – 80%
  • Rough plumbing – 90%
  • Insulation – 75%
  • Windows – 65%
  • Interior metal studs – 85%
  • Exterior paint – 50%
  • Curtain wall – 65%
  • Exterior storefront – 90%
  • Concrete paving, parking lot and driveways – 95%
  • Gas service – 90%
  • Water service – 80%
  • Sidewalks – 45%
  • Interior gypsum board – 65%
  • Interior paint 20%
  • Ceramic tile – 10%
  • Sorters Road storm drain – 90%
  • Rough grade – 75%

Aerial Photos from 3/13/22

Here’s what that looks like. Aerial photos show the exterior of the main building and athletic facilities rapidly nearing completion.

Looking NE at New Caney ISD West Fork High School. HCA Kingwood Medical Center is white complex in background near horizon.
Interior courtyard
New ball fields. US59 runs left to right across top of frame. North is left.
Field house, football field and track. Looking east toward US 59.
Looking SW toward Sorters-McClellan Road.
Runners take your marks. Set. Go!
The detention pond will need some erosion repair before this project is done.
Sorters-McClellan Road is being expanded to handle the increased traffic. Looking N from over detention pond.
Looking S at widening of Sorters-McClellan Road. Note proximity to West Fork and 59 Bridge in background.

Compare with Previous Updates

To see how the project has progressed, compare these previous posts.

New Caney ISD expects to complete the project this summer. It is one of the District’s 2018 bond projects.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/15/2022

1659 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Crenshaw Secures Funding for Local Flood Mitigation Projects

U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw of the Texas Second Congressional District has secured $26.4 million earmarked for six specific flood-mitigation projects in his district. They include:

Appropriations for Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies

  • $1.6 million for Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) for the Taylor Gully  channel improvements. 
  • $1.6 million for HCFCD’s Kingwood  Diversion Ditch improvements. 
  • $1.67 million for Harris County for the Forest Manor drainage-improvement project in Huffman. 
  • $3.39 million for Memorial City Redevelopment Authority’s detention-basin improvements.

Homeland Security Appropriations

  • $8.2 million through Federal Emergency Management Agency’s  (FEMA) Community Project Funding for the Westador Basin Stormwater Detention Basin.  
  • $9.9 million through FEMA’s Community Project Funding for the TC Jester stormwater detention basin. 

Necessary Projects, Not Pork

Kaaren Cambio, District Director for Congressman Crenshaw, pointed out that “Our earmarks were just for necessary flooding projects that the county has not funded.”

Earmarks made a comeback this year for the first time since they were banned in 2010. This Houston Chronicle story points out the pros, cons and restrictions of the new earmark system. The amounts are limited. And representatives can have no financial connection to the projects. The key word is “necessary.” This money is NOT for building bridges to nowhere just to bring money to a district.

The need for the two projects in the Kingwood Area became apparent only after the completion of the Kingwood Area Drainage Study. The projects had not been identified when the flood bond passed.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch Improvements

These improvements will divert stormwater runoff from Bens Branch to lower the risk of structural flooding along the portion of Bens Branch within the Kingwood area.  This project will also provide capacity to allow for future neighborhood drainage improvements that outfall into the Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch
Kingwood Diversion Ditch was originally built with future expansion in mind.

The Kingwood Diversion Channel was constructed with expansion in mind. So HCFCD will only need to acquire minimal additional right-of-way. The project includes:

  • Channel conveyance improvements
  • A concrete diversion structure from the confluence at Bens Branch in Montgomery County
  • A new proposed outfall into the West Fork San Jacinto River. 

This project will remove 62 existing structures from the 100-year floodplain inundation area. It will also provide capacity for future drainage improvements that benefit an additional 586 structures – 295 and 291 from along the Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch respectively. 

The proposed improvements also provide increased flood protection for Kingwood High School and Saint Martha Catholic School.

Taylor Gully Improvements

An engineering study found the upper portion of Taylor Gully insufficient. Large numbers of structures have flooded upstream of Rustling Elms Drive. This project will restore a 100-year level of service for Taylor Gully from the upper limits of the channel to Maple Bend Drive. 

Rustling Elms Bridge over Taylor Gully during peak of May 7, 2019 flood.

The improvements include maintaining the existing top of banks, and constructing a concrete 20 foot by 6 foot (max) low flow channel section. This will remove 387 structures from the 100-year floodplain inundation area. It will also provide capacity for future improvements that could benefit an additional 62 structures.

Forest Manor Project in Huffman

The project would help reduce flood risk for 98 homes. Less than 15% of homes in the subdivision are in the regulatory FEMA 100-year floodplain, yet more than 40% of the homes have reported flood claims in recent years (with 30% consisting of repetitive losses).

Memorial City

The project will improve and deepen an existing detention basin. It will also better connect adjacent roads (Windhover, Westview, Cedardale, and Demaret) with the improved stormwater infrastructure. Stormwater capture will prevent structural and roadway flooding, and reduce non-point source pollutants from flood events. These pollutants result from structural and private property flooding. They include pollutants such as oil, grease, debris, and other contaminants. Without mitigation, these pollutants would end up in Galveston Bay.  

TC Jester Detention Basin

This stormwater detention mitigation project will reduce flood damage within the Cypress Creek Watershed. It will retain storm runoff, and reduce floodplain width and depth. Approximately 2689 structures are currently at risk of riverine flooding during a 100-year rain. This proposed project will capitalize on an existing Harris County detention pond with an additional 0.18 acres of wetlands to create a basin footprint of 25 acres. The proposed project will capture overbank flooding so that water elevation in a 100-year storm does not exceed 0.49 feet. This proposed project will remove 87 structures from the existing 100-year floodplain. When complete, the full detention basin will remove 271 structures from the floodplain. 

Cypress Creek Westador Basin

The Cypress Creek Westador Stormwater Detention will significantly reduce flood risk, the floodplain, and water levels. Phase I will be functionally independent of this multi-phase project and will remove 128 structures from the existing 100-year floodplain.

Thanks to Crenshaw and Staff

Many thanks to Congressman Dan Crenshaw and his staff. These projects will make a difference for thousands of people who have flooded repeatedly.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/14/22

1658 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Kingwood Middle School Scheduled to Open in Months

The new three-story Kingwood Middle School is scheduled to open this year. That leaves just nine months. Pictures taken today show the exterior is almost complete. But interior progress is hard to judge.

Then there’s the question of demolition of the old school and reconstruction of the athletic fields where the old school now stands. None of that can happen until contractors finish the new school. But even if that runs past August, it shouldn’t impose any additional hardships on students. After all, they’ve done without athletic fields for the last two school years.

Construction Pics Show Status as of Mid-March 2022

Construction started on the east and has been working toward the west for more than a year now. Here’s how the westernmost building looks as of 3/13/22. It is the least finished. As you can see, additional exterior work remains on the roof, glass, and entries.

Virtually all glass appears to be in as of mid-March 2022, but not the frames that seal it.
Workers still have materials left on several of the roofs.
The new back entry will provide pickup and drop-off points, relieving traffic congestion on surrounding streets.
This temporary detention pond in the foreground will be replaced by…
…a new permanent detention pond where the parking long in the foreground is.
The old school (right) must still be demolished.
New athletic fields will be built on the site of the old school.

Once a building like this has been “dried in,” subcontractors can work on the interior 24/7 if necessary to make up for lost “weather days.” Interior trades include drywall, plumbing, electric, lighting, ceilings, paint, floor coverings, cabinets and other finish work.

Compare Current with Previous Pics

See the progress of work to date by comparing these pictures with those taken in previous months.

Here’s Humble ISD’s webpage on the project. It shows artist’s renderings of many of the interior areas not visible in these pictures. It will feature larger classrooms, more space for collaboration, natural light, and easier pickup/drop-off.

Careful reading of the Humble ISD copy will reveal that they have not yet promised which month in 2022 students will move from the old to the new Kingwood Middle School. However…

With each passing month, I get more excited about this project. It will make a wonderful addition to Kingwood and has the potential to become a community showcase.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/13/2022

1657 Days since Hurricane Harvey

MAAPnext Offers Powerful Historical Flood Loss Visualization Tools

By accident, I stumbled across some powerful historical flood loss visualization tools on Harris County Flood Control’s MAAPnext site today. They can help you understand the capricious nature of storms as well as political claims about which neighborhoods flood the most.

About MAAPnext

In 2019, using two FEMA grants and Flood Bond money, Harris County Flood Control District launched its MAAPnext project. MAAP stands for Modeling, Assessment and Awareness. The goal: to use new methodologies and technologies to improve understanding of flood risks throughout Harris County. The project goes far beyond updating Flood Insurance Rate Maps in the wake of recent storms. It also includes:

  • Interactive historical flood loss visualization tools
  • Water surface elevation change grids (maps showing difference between effective and revised floodplains)
  • Flood depth grids (for various flood frequencies including 10%, 4%, 2%, 1% and 0.2% annual chance events)
  • Urban flood maps (street flooding caused by rainfall exceeding storm sewer capacity)
  • Percent annual chance grids (giving you your exact probability of being flooded within a mapped floodplain)
  • 30-Year chance grids (showing your home’s exact chance of flooding within the life of a 30-year mortgage)
  • Water surface elevation grids (showing the water surface elevation in various flood frequencies)

Not all of these maps have been released yet. For instance, MAAPnext/FEMA will release new preliminary flood insurance rate maps for public comment this fall. However, I did find three fascinating interactive maps showing the history of flood losses in Harris County.

Historical Flood Loss Tools

Cumulative Losses since 1978

The first map provides a visual representation of where all flooding claims have occurred throughout the county since 1978. A property’s flood risk can be a influenced by many factors but it’s important to remember that it can flood anywhere in Harris County. The darkest areas have the most cumulative flood losses. The lightest areas have the least.

Total flood losses in various census tracts within Harris County since 1978.

To understand exactly WHERE and WHEN these flood losses happened, you need to go to the next two series of maps.

Historical Inundation Map

The Historical Inundation Map shows the extent of flooding in five different major storms since 2015. These include only streams with gages, not all Harris County channels. Zoom and scroll into an area of interest and then select the storm of interest from the layer menu.

Extent of flooding along the West and East Forks in the Memorial Day 2016 flood.

You can toggle layers rapidly to see how floods compared to each other.

Flood-Loss History by Event

The map above shows the spread of flood waters in various events. However, to see the relative damage in census tracts, you need to go to the map called “Flood Loss History by Event.” Again, you’ll need to toggle layers to select the event of interest. The darker the colors, the more damage.

Tax Day 2016 Storm Damage
Selecting the Tax Day 2016 layer shows that most damage from that storm occurred in NW Harris County.
Hurricane Harvey 2017 Damage
Selecting the Harvey layer shows that that storm affected the entire county with some watersheds experiencing more losses than others.
Imelda 2019 Damage
Distribution of damage in Harris County from Tropical Storm Imelda

For More Interactive Exploration…

The four maps above only scratch the surface of what you can find on the MAAPnext site. To explore the distribution of damage in various storms, visit the page called Understanding Your Flood Risk.

Media accounts of major storms might lead you to believe that major storms affect all parts of the county equally. But they don’t. Who floods depends on upstream rainfall totals, dam releases, proximity to floodplains, development regulations, elevation above the flood plain and more.

The most interesting aspect of MAAPnext is that it will eventually incorporate all of these factors and give you an individual risk rating for your property or one that you are considering buying.

If knowledge is power, this is power cubed, because it let’s you look at flood risk in multiple dimensions.

Be Patient

I can’t wait until the project is fully finished. Check back often and click around this site as new features seem to be bolted on periodically. The bolted-on comment relates to my only complaint. All information (and there’s a lot of it) is grouped under five pages in ways that are rarely intuitive and often invisible from the highest levels. For instance, to get to the historical flood loss maps, you have to:

  • Click on the home page
  • Click on a link embedded in one of the visuals called “Flooding is Our #1 Disaster.”
  • It will take you to a page called (strangely enough) “Understand Your Flood Risk.”
  • Scroll down past 7 other topics to the bottom of page to find the interactive maps.

Presumably, helping people understand their flood risk is the most important objective of this site, but the page by that name appears nowhere in navigation. That said, have fun exploring. You’ll find many other hidden gems on this site.

And remember that all flood insurance policies renewing on or after April 1, 2022, will be subject to FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 methodology.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/2022

1656 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How Blocked Up Is Rogers Gully?

On March 1, I posted about how dredgers had moved from the East Fork to Rogers Gully. Rogers Gully enters Lake Houston at the Walden Country Club. In my opinion, it has the worst mouth bar of all the channels that enter Lake Houston, with the exception of the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Harris County Flood Control finished dredging the channel itself almost two years ago. But the mouth bar is the City’s responsibility.

I went back to see how much of the mouth bar remained this morning and was shocked. The two dredges are still sitting far offshore, approximately where they were on March 1.

Here are several pictures that show their position this morning, 3/11/22.

Looking west from the mouth of Rogers Gully toward the dredges about a quarter mile away and the eastern shore of Lake Houston in the background.
Reverse angle. Looking over one of the two dredges toward the mouth of Rogers Gully.

Curious about why the dredges were working so far out, I asked State Representative Dan Huberty “Why?” Huberty, who secured money for the dredging, texted back a one-line answer.

“Can’t get into Rogers Gulley without dredging their way in.”

State representative dan huberty

Wow. I knew Rogers Gully was bad. But I had no idea it was that bad. This could be like getting to the East Fork from the West Fork. It took crews three months to dredge their way through the channel south of Royal Shores that connects the two forks.

It’s been almost two weeks since they started working here. And this area is far wider than the Royal Shores channel. Rogers Gully has apparently formed a wide and long “underwater” delta that extends far beyond the above-water portion.

So in answer to the question in the headline, “How blocked up is Rogers Gully?” It’s baaaad.

This underscores the need to establish a perpetual maintenance dredging program for Lake Houston, something the Army Corps recommended back in 2018 and that Brown and Root recommended in 2000. It’s not just about recreation. It’s about ensuring long-term water-supply capacity in the lake.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/11/22

1655 Days since Hurricane Harvey