10/25/26 – Texas General Land Office (GLO) Commissioner Dawn Buckingham M.D. has announced the launch of a $92 million program to reallocate flood mitigation funding along with a call for projects in eligible Texas communities until November 18th.
A 10/20/26 GLO press release says that Buckingham launched a Mitigation Reallocation Program (MRP). The effort will help ensure $92 million in available funding reaches Texas communities that need dollars for flood-mitigation projects.
The funding can be used for mitigation needs such as flood and drainage improvements, water-system improvements, wastewater improvements, street improvements and permanently affixed emergency communications equipment. In short, anything that reduces the impacts of future hurricanes, storms and flooding. The deadline for applications: Nov. 18, 2026, at 5 p.m. (Central Time).
Beating the Federal Clock
“The GLO is setting a record pace in administering mitigation funds across several disasters,” said Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, M.D. The mitigation funding comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
It is a one-time opportunity to accomplish resilience infrastructure priorities in Texas communities frequently impacted by disasters. However, these funds must be used expeditiously before the federal clock runs out.
“The MRP reinforces the GLO’s commitment to helping Texas communities prepare, withstand, and recover from disasters with stronger, more resilient systems in place,” said Buckingham.
The MRP utilizes de-obligated and un-utilized Community Development Block Grant funds for Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) from HUD. Currently, the GLO has identified $92 million in funding available for the MRP. That total may increase as GLO identifies additional funds.
Who is Eligible and Where?
Eligible entities include units of local government (cities and counties), Indian Tribes and special purpose districts in counties eligible for CDBG-MIT grants. Each may submit up to three (3) projects.
GLO will consider projects based on the criteria identified in the action plan. Projects must cost between $2.5 million and $10 million. Because of their emphasis on preventing future flooding, they do not need to a tie-back to a particular disaster, such as Hurricane Harvey.
Eligible counties include the dark-shaded areas.
Webinar Explains Application Process for Community Officials
The GLO hosted a webinar for community officials in eligible counties regarding the call for projects process including federal eligibility requirements, scoring criteria, and key deadlines. The webinar was recorded and is available on the MRP website.
From the date of contract execution, sub-recipients will have a maximum of three years to complete the project. Entities must carefully consider the timeline provided in their submission. Each project contract will have a specific timeline and milestones. They will vary based on the execution date and the project submission details.
No Deadline Extensions; Recapture of Funds Possible
The Mitigation Reallocation Program cannot allow extensions on these grants due to the federally imposed deadline for using the funds.
HUD has set deadlines for the expenditure and closeout of the CDBG-MIT grant. Failure to complete projects and finalize HUD’s closeout process will result in “HUD initiating the recapture process” said the GLO. That means any funds used towards incomplete projects must be repaid to HUD.
Due to the gravity of the deadlines, the GLO will only consider projects that can be completed in enough time to allow for the close-out process.
How Communities Can Apply
Eligible entities must submit projects through the Texas Integrated Grant Reporting (TIGR) system. Entities that require TIGR access will need to submit a TIGR access form by Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 5 p.m., to allow time for processing.
According to a GLO spokesperson, other counties are eager to get their hands on this money and put it to work. One former Harris County insider suspected that Buckingham’s announcement “will be met with applause outside of Harris County.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/25/26
3344 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/mitigation-action-plan-eligible-counties_crop.png?fit=580%2C580&ssl=1580580adminadmin2026-10-25 18:23:022026-10-25 18:23:03GLO Commissioner Announces Launch of $92 Million Mitigation-Reallocation Program
10/24/26 – Does Atlantic hurricane activity spike after El Niño? Simple answer: Yes. The historical record shows dramatic rebounds in Atlantic hurricane activity after El Niño years. However, evidence supports a rebound in favorable conditions, not an inevitable spike in storms.
We must also look closely at how we ask the question. Are we asking about tropical storms, hurricanes or both?
High-Level Findings
The distinction matters when considering what might happen during the 2027 hurricane season. A review of the scientific literature and historical record revealed three important findings:
El Niño is a major contributor to the unusually weak 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It increases upper-level wind shear, which can prevent tropical disturbances from organizing or intensifying.
The current El Niño is expected to persist into spring 2027, potentially weakening toward neutral conditions during summer.
Some of the largest year-over-year increases in Atlantic hurricanes have occurred as El Niño ended, especially in 1998 and 2010.
How Unusual Has 2026 Been?
According to the National Hurricane Center, with a little more than a month remaining in the Atlantic 2026 season, we’ve had 10 “named storms” so far. That’s two below normal for this date.
However, we’ve only had ONE “hurricane” in the Atlantic this year. That’s FIVE below normal for the season to date.
NOAA also estimates accumulated cyclone energy is down 82% for the season compared to normal.
The remarkable statistic is not the number of named storms. It is the number of hurricanes and their accumulated energy.
NOAA’s October 8 outlook anticipates a “strong to very strong” El Niño continuing through January–March 2027, with greater than 83% probability. However, the likelihood of it remaining strong will start to diminish by the second quarter of next year.
The October International Research Institute forecast suggests El Niño will remain dominant through spring 2027, with neutral conditions becoming the most likely outcome by June–August as the hurricane season heats up.
Implication: The Atlantic may enter the 2027 hurricane season with El Niño still influencing the atmosphere, but that suppressive influence could weaken as the season approaches its August–October peak.
If conditions quickly shift to La Niña, hurricane activity could become more favorable. However, the current forecast does not yet suggest a transition to La Niña.
Historical Evidence: What Happens After El Niño?
I asked ChatGPT to examine five significant El Niño episodes and compare Atlantic storm activity during the El Niño year with the following year. The results are striking, especially for hurricanes (but less so for “named storms”).
Atlantic Hurricanes During and After El Niño Years
Counts are basin-wide hurricanes – not U.S. landfalls. The sample is illustrative rather than a complete statistical census of all El Niño events.
El Niño year → next year
Hurricanes
Change
1982 → 1983
2 → 3
+50%
1997 → 1998
3 → 10
+233%
2009 → 2010
3 → 12
+300%
2015 → 2016
4 → 7
+75%
2023 → 2024
7 → 11
+57%
The average across these five episodes? More than double.
3.8 → 8.6 or +126%
The rise in hurricanes per season? An average of 4.8. This sample shows a substantial rebound. but is limited. Do not interpret it as a prediction for 2027.
Comparing the Numbers for “All Named Storms”
The following graph shows the same-year comparisons for “all named storms,” i.e., hurricanes plus tropical storms.
Strong wind shear tilts the circulation within a tropical storm. That helps suppress hurricane formation. Source: NOAA.
So, ironically, the same force that reduces the number of hurricanes helps increase the number of tropical storms by preventing them from intensifying.
But after El Niño wind shear weakens, conditions become more favorable for tropical cyclones to strengthen into hurricanes.
What Does This Suggest for 2027?
Three plausible outcomes deserve consideration.
conditions during peak of 2027 season
Atlantic hurricane implications
El Niño persists
Continued suppression is more likely
Neutral conditions develop
Suppression weakens; other factors become more important
La Niña develops
More favorable environment for above-normal hurricane activity
The current outlook increasingly favors neutral conditions by next summer, but forecasting Atlantic hurricane counts this far in advance is premature.
For Houston, an additional distinction is essential: more hurricanes do not automatically mean more Texas landfalls. Steering currents, the Bermuda High, and other regional conditions determine whether storms approach Texas.
Even a below-normal Atlantic season can produce a catastrophic Houston flood. Indeed, many catastrophic Houston floods are non-tropical in origin.
Takeaways
The historical record supports three conclusions:
Major rebounds after El Niño are real. In 1998, Atlantic hurricane counts more than tripled relative to 1997. In 2010, they quadrupled relative to 2009.
Rebounds are not universal. Named-storm counts sometimes decline even as hurricane counts increase.
A significant increase in 2027 is plausible, particularly if El Niño fades before peak season, but a spike is not guaranteed.
Finally, do not mistake the absence of hurricane activity this year for a lasting reduction in flood risk. Communities remain exposed to the same flood hazards if nothing changes on the ground to mitigate them.
Houston can go many years without a hurricane strike before one creates a major disaster. Example: 2009 to 2016 before Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/24/26 with help from Chat GPT
3343 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Atl-Hurricanes-DuringAfter-ElNino-e1792883374187.png?fit=1100%2C589&ssl=15891100adminadmin2026-10-24 18:43:452026-10-24 18:43:46Does Atlantic Hurricane Activity Spike After El Niño Years?
10/23/26 – Harris County could lose a quarter billion dollars of grant money from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) Program. At risk is at least:
A MINIMUM $250 million is at risk.AI image by ChatGPT.
But the total could climb even higher.
Even More MIT Funds in Limbo
More than $140 million in the CDBG-MIT program is at risk. However, the total of all “at risk” grants currently exceeds more than a HALF BILLION dollars. No wonder Harris County Commissioner Adrian Garcia pulled this discussion from the last Commissioners Court agenda. See Item 93.
Currently, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) shows 11 mitigation projects totaling $397.4 million reaching “substantial completion” AFTER their March 31, 2028 deadline.
However, HCFCD hopes it will get a one-year extension on the MIT deadline. If granted, the extension would give the District time to complete all MIT projects – except for two that total $140.5 million.
So, at a minimum, it appears that HCFCD could lose the $113 million plus $140 million. But in a worst case scenario without the extension, the total could climb to $510 million.
Garcia at Center of Fiasco
The fact that we’re even worried about losing that money can be traced back to Commissioner Adrian Garcia. He defended the slow performance of former HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen long after Commissioner Tom Ramsey raised concerns about the CDBG grants. And long after Judge Lina Hidalgo said to Petersen “I just lost my confidence in you.” And long after Commissioner Rodney Ellis warned Petersen of “a day of reckoning.”
Garcia reportedly recommended Petersen for the job and defended her for years, even as Flood Control activity dropped off sharply. See the graph below.
Incremental HCFCD spending shows relentless decline after Garcia and fellow Democrats started pushing out the executives who sold the 2018 flood bond. They were executing projects at a record pace.Graph ends with Petersen’s departure.
Garcia even defended her after she resigned under pressure by offering a factually incorrect timeline in an attempt to rewrite history and support his protege.
This fiasco is a testament to government mismanagement and inefficiency. The Texas General Land Office, which administers HUD grants in Texas, has said it doesn’t want to see Harris County lose any grant money. But it has also said that grant extensions have not yet been approved officially. The money is in administrative limbo.
Meanwhile…
Are We Adding More Cost than Value?
HCFCD isn’t the only part of Harris County government experiencing problems. Many other departments are, too, including the Engineering Department.
While efficiency decreases, the demand for more money increases. County Commissioners approved a tax increase next year for their General Fund plus increases for Flood Control, Harris Health, and the Toll Road Authority.
Luckily, HCFCD has a new executive director, Marcus Stuckett, who seems to be much more results-oriented than his predecessor. But when Stuckett tried to initiate a discussion about potential funding losses at the last commissioners court meeting, Garcia pulled the discussion from the agenda. That ensured the issue wouldn’t be aired until after the election.
So much for transparency and accountability! But hey! That’s what elections are for.
Posted by Bob Rehak
3342 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/250-Million-Cash-Storm-in-Sky-Ruins.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-10-23 18:37:342026-10-23 19:20:36$250 Million of Federal Flood Grants in Limbo
GLO Commissioner Announces Launch of $92 Million Mitigation-Reallocation Program
10/25/26 – Texas General Land Office (GLO) Commissioner Dawn Buckingham M.D. has announced the launch of a $92 million program to reallocate flood mitigation funding along with a call for projects in eligible Texas communities until November 18th.
A 10/20/26 GLO press release says that Buckingham launched a Mitigation Reallocation Program (MRP). The effort will help ensure $92 million in available funding reaches Texas communities that need dollars for flood-mitigation projects.
The funding can be used for mitigation needs such as flood and drainage improvements, water-system improvements, wastewater improvements, street improvements and permanently affixed emergency communications equipment. In short, anything that reduces the impacts of future hurricanes, storms and flooding. The deadline for applications: Nov. 18, 2026, at 5 p.m. (Central Time).
Beating the Federal Clock
“The GLO is setting a record pace in administering mitigation funds across several disasters,” said Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, M.D. The mitigation funding comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
It is a one-time opportunity to accomplish resilience infrastructure priorities in Texas communities frequently impacted by disasters. However, these funds must be used expeditiously before the federal clock runs out.
“The MRP reinforces the GLO’s commitment to helping Texas communities prepare, withstand, and recover from disasters with stronger, more resilient systems in place,” said Buckingham.
The MRP utilizes de-obligated and un-utilized Community Development Block Grant funds for Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) from HUD. Currently, the GLO has identified $92 million in funding available for the MRP. That total may increase as GLO identifies additional funds.
Who is Eligible and Where?
Eligible entities include units of local government (cities and counties), Indian Tribes and special purpose districts in counties eligible for CDBG-MIT grants. Each may submit up to three (3) projects.
GLO will consider projects based on the criteria identified in the action plan. Projects must cost between $2.5 million and $10 million. Because of their emphasis on preventing future flooding, they do not need to a tie-back to a particular disaster, such as Hurricane Harvey.
Webinar Explains Application Process for Community Officials
The GLO hosted a webinar for community officials in eligible counties regarding the call for projects process including federal eligibility requirements, scoring criteria, and key deadlines. The webinar was recorded and is available on the MRP website.
From the date of contract execution, sub-recipients will have a maximum of three years to complete the project. Entities must carefully consider the timeline provided in their submission. Each project contract will have a specific timeline and milestones. They will vary based on the execution date and the project submission details.
No Deadline Extensions; Recapture of Funds Possible
The Mitigation Reallocation Program cannot allow extensions on these grants due to the federally imposed deadline for using the funds.
HUD has set deadlines for the expenditure and closeout of the CDBG-MIT grant. Failure to complete projects and finalize HUD’s closeout process will result in “HUD initiating the recapture process” said the GLO. That means any funds used towards incomplete projects must be repaid to HUD.
Due to the gravity of the deadlines, the GLO will only consider projects that can be completed in enough time to allow for the close-out process.
How Communities Can Apply
Eligible entities must submit projects through the Texas Integrated Grant Reporting (TIGR) system. Entities that require TIGR access will need to submit a TIGR access form by Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 5 p.m., to allow time for processing.
For more information or to submit projects, visit recovery.texas.gov/mrp. You can find the mitigation action plan scoring criteria at https://recovery.texas.gov/action-plans.
Rehak’s Take
I read this announcement (and its timing in the middle of an election) as a shot across the bow of Harris County. Said another way, it’s a warning to speed up so that Harris County CDBG-MIT funds don’t get recycled to another county.
According to a GLO spokesperson, other counties are eager to get their hands on this money and put it to work. One former Harris County insider suspected that Buckingham’s announcement “will be met with applause outside of Harris County.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/25/26
3344 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Does Atlantic Hurricane Activity Spike After El Niño Years?
10/24/26 – Does Atlantic hurricane activity spike after El Niño? Simple answer: Yes. The historical record shows dramatic rebounds in Atlantic hurricane activity after El Niño years. However, evidence supports a rebound in favorable conditions, not an inevitable spike in storms.
We must also look closely at how we ask the question. Are we asking about tropical storms, hurricanes or both?
High-Level Findings
The distinction matters when considering what might happen during the 2027 hurricane season. A review of the scientific literature and historical record revealed three important findings:
How Unusual Has 2026 Been?
According to the National Hurricane Center, with a little more than a month remaining in the Atlantic 2026 season, we’ve had 10 “named storms” so far. That’s two below normal for this date.
However, we’ve only had ONE “hurricane” in the Atlantic this year. That’s FIVE below normal for the season to date.
NOAA also estimates accumulated cyclone energy is down 82% for the season compared to normal.
The remarkable statistic is not the number of named storms. It is the number of hurricanes and their accumulated energy.
NASA reports that 2026 became the first Atlantic season in more than a century without a hurricane during July through September. Hurricane Isaias did not form until October.
When Will the Current El Niño End?
NOAA’s October 8 outlook anticipates a “strong to very strong” El Niño continuing through January–March 2027, with greater than 83% probability. However, the likelihood of it remaining strong will start to diminish by the second quarter of next year.
The October International Research Institute forecast suggests El Niño will remain dominant through spring 2027, with neutral conditions becoming the most likely outcome by June–August as the hurricane season heats up.
Forecast Probability of El Niño Continuing
Implication: The Atlantic may enter the 2027 hurricane season with El Niño still influencing the atmosphere, but that suppressive influence could weaken as the season approaches its August–October peak.
If conditions quickly shift to La Niña, hurricane activity could become more favorable. However, the current forecast does not yet suggest a transition to La Niña.
Historical Evidence: What Happens After El Niño?
I asked ChatGPT to examine five significant El Niño episodes and compare Atlantic storm activity during the El Niño year with the following year. The results are striking, especially for hurricanes (but less so for “named storms”).
Atlantic Hurricanes During and After El Niño Years
Source: Table of Atlantic Storm Totals by NOAA. 2026 excluded because the season is incomplete.
Counts are basin-wide hurricanes – not U.S. landfalls. The sample is illustrative rather than a complete statistical census of all El Niño events.
The average across these five episodes? More than double.
3.8 → 8.6 or +126%
The rise in hurricanes per season? An average of 4.8. This sample shows a substantial rebound. but is limited. Do not interpret it as a prediction for 2027.
Comparing the Numbers for “All Named Storms”
The following graph shows the same-year comparisons for “all named storms,” i.e., hurricanes plus tropical storms.
Named Atlantic storms during and after El Niño
The pattern is less consistent and less dramatic. In fact, in two of the five years, the pattern reversed itself.
1983 and 2024 had fewer named storms than the preceding El Niño year. This suggests:
This relates to the role that wind shear (or its absence) plays in causing hurricanes to form, strengthen and weaken.
So, ironically, the same force that reduces the number of hurricanes helps increase the number of tropical storms by preventing them from intensifying.
But after El Niño wind shear weakens, conditions become more favorable for tropical cyclones to strengthen into hurricanes.
What Does This Suggest for 2027?
Three plausible outcomes deserve consideration.
The current outlook increasingly favors neutral conditions by next summer, but forecasting Atlantic hurricane counts this far in advance is premature.
For Houston, an additional distinction is essential: more hurricanes do not automatically mean more Texas landfalls. Steering currents, the Bermuda High, and other regional conditions determine whether storms approach Texas.
Even a below-normal Atlantic season can produce a catastrophic Houston flood. Indeed, many catastrophic Houston floods are non-tropical in origin.
Takeaways
The historical record supports three conclusions:
Finally, do not mistake the absence of hurricane activity this year for a lasting reduction in flood risk. Communities remain exposed to the same flood hazards if nothing changes on the ground to mitigate them.
Houston can go many years without a hurricane strike before one creates a major disaster. Example: 2009 to 2016 before Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/24/26 with help from Chat GPT
3343 Days since Hurricane Harvey
$250 Million of Federal Flood Grants in Limbo
10/23/26 – Harris County could lose a quarter billion dollars of grant money from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) Program. At risk is at least:
But the total could climb even higher.
Even More MIT Funds in Limbo
More than $140 million in the CDBG-MIT program is at risk. However, the total of all “at risk” grants currently exceeds more than a HALF BILLION dollars. No wonder Harris County Commissioner Adrian Garcia pulled this discussion from the last Commissioners Court agenda. See Item 93.
Currently, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) shows 11 mitigation projects totaling $397.4 million reaching “substantial completion” AFTER their March 31, 2028 deadline.
However, HCFCD hopes it will get a one-year extension on the MIT deadline. If granted, the extension would give the District time to complete all MIT projects – except for two that total $140.5 million.
So, at a minimum, it appears that HCFCD could lose the $113 million plus $140 million. But in a worst case scenario without the extension, the total could climb to $510 million.
Garcia at Center of Fiasco
The fact that we’re even worried about losing that money can be traced back to Commissioner Adrian Garcia. He defended the slow performance of former HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen long after Commissioner Tom Ramsey raised concerns about the CDBG grants. And long after Judge Lina Hidalgo said to Petersen “I just lost my confidence in you.” And long after Commissioner Rodney Ellis warned Petersen of “a day of reckoning.”
Garcia reportedly recommended Petersen for the job and defended her for years, even as Flood Control activity dropped off sharply. See the graph below.
Garcia even defended her after she resigned under pressure by offering a factually incorrect timeline in an attempt to rewrite history and support his protege.
This fiasco is a testament to government mismanagement and inefficiency. The Texas General Land Office, which administers HUD grants in Texas, has said it doesn’t want to see Harris County lose any grant money. But it has also said that grant extensions have not yet been approved officially. The money is in administrative limbo.
Meanwhile…
Are We Adding More Cost than Value?
HCFCD isn’t the only part of Harris County government experiencing problems. Many other departments are, too, including the Engineering Department.
While efficiency decreases, the demand for more money increases. County Commissioners approved a tax increase next year for their General Fund plus increases for Flood Control, Harris Health, and the Toll Road Authority.
Luckily, HCFCD has a new executive director, Marcus Stuckett, who seems to be much more results-oriented than his predecessor. But when Stuckett tried to initiate a discussion about potential funding losses at the last commissioners court meeting, Garcia pulled the discussion from the agenda. That ensured the issue wouldn’t be aired until after the election.
So much for transparency and accountability! But hey! That’s what elections are for.
Posted by Bob Rehak
3342 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.