How 2024 hurricane season stacks up against 30 year average so far.

Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead

7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.

Climatology Data from NHC

Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.

From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.

Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.

3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic

At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating

The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4

The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.

150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.

NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.

Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”

Central Atlantic Still Disturbed

A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.

Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.

From NOAA: https://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

Note Beryl spinning on the far left of the image above!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/24 based on information from NOAA and NHC

2498 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl satellite photo

Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day

6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.

Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.

4PM Update on Beryl

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.

Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.

Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24

As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.

So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.

From Wikipedia

Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.

Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.

Sea Surface Temps in Gulf

If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.

Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.

Record-Breaking Beryl

As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:

  • Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
  • Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.

Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl as Cat 2 Storm

Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane

6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)

High SSTs, Low Wind Shear

Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.

Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC. 

Eye Wall Development

Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye. 

From National Hurricane Center at 6:20 CDT on 6/30/24

Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.

Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph.  There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days. 

Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.

The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.

Category 4 Risks

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories

For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.

This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.

Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.

CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
From National Hurricane Center

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/24 at 7 AM CDT

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey