5/6/27 – Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray addressed a packed East Montgomery County Chamber luncheon today about the often conflicting issues of property rights, growth, flooding and public safety. Both during the meeting and in an hour-long, one-on-one interview after it, he stressed the need for responsible development that mitigated downstream flooding impacts.
Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray
Managing Growth
Montgomery County has consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing counties in America. And Gray’s Precinct 4 alone expects to add another 14,000 to 16,000 rooftops in the next five years.
Gray is finishing his first term and running for another. “If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you’ve heard me talk about steering and managing the growth. That’s been my mission and my office’s mission,” Gray told the crowd.
In that regard, he talked about helping to update Montgomery County’s:
He also discussed catching up with past growth. “We’re just now addressing issues and roads that have been a burr under the saddle for 20, 25 years,” said Gray. “You get all these new developments off a lonely country road. Well, it’s no longer a lonely country road. Next thing you know…you can’t move. And I get 50 calls a day.”
Funding Challenges and Triumphs
Gray also talked about his efforts in Washington, D.C. and with the Texas General Land Office to fund badly needed flood-mitigation and drainage projects. In the “win column,” Gray points to:
De-snagging (eliminating logjams) on Caney Creek, Peach Creek, East Fork of SanJac, and White Oak Creek. That grant from the Texas General Land Office (GLO) has been awarded. Work is kicking off in 2026. Full contract value is $60.4 million with $36.4 million being spent in East Montgomery County. Contractors will clean debris out of almost 100 miles of the tributaries – just within Precinct 4.
Completing $10 million in outfall drainage improvements using federal dollars (ARPA) to clean out an estimated 138,000 linear feet of outfalls throughout the precinct
Taylor Gully clean up and maintenance
A $7.7 million grant for a historically “never-been-drained” neighborhood – Porter Heights
Partnership with HCFCD to install and maintain 4 flood gages on major bridges/watersheds – all visible on Harris County Flood Warning System. They include:
Caney Creek @ US 59
Caney Creek @ Firetower Rd.
Peach Creek @ FM 1485 East
Peach Creek @ Roman Forest Blvd.
HCFCD Woodridge Basin – Entered into an interlocal agreement with HCFCD so that their new detention basin can tie into existing MoCo basins – a win for both Harris and Montgomery counties.
Focus Now Shifting to Execution
“It was a nightmare to get the grants,” said Gray. “But I’ve got an awesome team that does an exceptional job.” Under his leadership, they applied for $130 million in grants and so far have received almost $70 million.
His focus now has shifted to executing those projects.
Gray, a construction expert and project management professional, has employed a number of strategies to improve his staff’s efficiency. He has:
Developed focused and comprehensive maintenance schedules by neighborhood. In 2025 alone, his team dug out more than 232,000 linear feet of drainage ditches (approximately 44 miles)
Worked with the Houston-Galveston Area Council to help bring more funding to the region and MoCo
Shifted to in-house culvert inspections and enforcement
Developed Interlocal agreements with MUDs
Continually applied for federal grants for drainage projects
Used constables to address floodplain violations such as unpermitted work and illegal dumping
Worked directly with the County’s Floodplain Administrator’s office to ensure flagged properties are brought into compliance.
Gray emphasizes action. As the Chamber’s moderator said, “Everyone in this room knows that – you and your office – when you see something that needs to be done, you just do it. You find a way to make it happen!”
“We Want Responsible Development”
Gray continued, “Our message is ‘we want responsible development.’ So what does that mean? It means a lot of things to me including, ‘we don’t want to flood our new residents or people downstream.'”
“We spent a lot of man hours sitting together, working through the drainage criteria manuals,” he added. “And we addressed the Beat-the-Peak issue. We struck that out and built in a lot more detention requirements than ever existed previously in this county.”
Beat-the-Peak refers to a loophole in previous regulations that let developers avoid building detention basins if they could prove they could get their stormwater to a river before the peak of a flood arrived.
The theory was that that would not be adding to the peak. But in practice, it encouraged everyone to get their water to the river as quickly as possible – exactly the opposite of what you want to do in a flood.
Gray who has fond memories of growing up near the East Fork San Jacinto and FM1485 is haunted now by the sight of flooded neighborhoods there.
If anyone can make a difference, I’m sure he can. He’s a man on a mission.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/26
3172 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Matt-Gray-At-EMC-Luncheon.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-05-06 21:54:462026-05-07 08:48:19MoCo P4 Commissioner Matt Gray on Growth, Flooding, Responsible Development
5/5/26 – Hurricane forecast cones will have a new look for 2026 according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As part of a suite of product improvements, NHC will implement two new tropical products and services:
A new operational hurricane track cone map
A new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.
The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds. See sample below.
Example of 2026 version of cone graphic for Hurricane Milton (2024) shows inland watches and warnings. (Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center)
What to know about the new cone graphic:
Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone
Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines)
Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov.
Another Experimental Feature
NHC will also introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.
The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.
New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii
New products and services for the Hawaiian Islands include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic. This expands the NHC’s storm surge products and services that are currently serving the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of America coastline, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
2026 example of a new Potential Storm Surge Watch and Warning Graphic for the Hawaiian Islands by NOAA
What to know about the new storm surge products for Hawaii:
Deliver probability-based forecasts of water and storm surge levels within 72 hours of hurricane impacts
Incorporate forecast inputs such as storm track, wind intensity, and wind radii
Are publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands.
These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/5/2026 based on press release from NHC
3171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/cone-graphic-Hurricane-Milton-2024.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2026-05-05 20:34:112026-05-05 20:34:12New Hurricane Forecast Cone Graphics for 2026 Season
5/4/2026 – On May 1, 2026, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) finally submitted a detailed spreadsheet demanded by Harris County Commissioners. It shows key milestones in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects receiving $868 million in federal funding.
The data raises two red flags:
Only 11 of 28 projects will meet deadlines
Construction bids far below initial estimates could leave tens of millions of dollars on the table.
Here is the detailed spreadsheet. The data directly contradicts rosy, high-level claims made by Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, in Commissioners Court on January 8, 2026. At that time…
So, let’s look at the deadlines with the detailed information now in hand. This story has the sad feeling of a football game with the home team down 30 points and only three minutes left on the scoreboard clock.
Deadlines Looming
The 28 CDBG projects are split into two groups with different deadlines:
11 CDBG-Disaster Relief (DR) worth $322 million
17 CDBG-Mitigation (MIT) worth $546 million.
DR projects have, by far, the tightest deadline – February 28, 2027. MIT projects have longer; 50% of that money must be spent by March 31, 2028, with the remainder spent by 2032. So, let’s look at DR projects now and save the MIT discussion for another day.
New Doc Predicts Only Five DR Projects Will Beat 2/28/27 Deadline
Of the 11 DR projects, HCFCD now predicts that only five will beat their deadline. (Estimate “substantial completion” dates shown in parentheses below.)
Of these five projects, HCFCD is only actually moving dirt on two so far.
Arbor Oaks (30% complete with 51% of construction days elapsed)
Brookglen (8% complete with 9% of construction time elapsed).
Can they be completed in time? The Arbor Oaks job is a cautionary example. Contractors have completed only 30% of the job in half the allotted time.
Six DR Projects Now Predicted to Miss 2/28/27 Deadline
According to HCFCD’s latest spreadsheet, the six projects below will miss their deadlines. Construction bids on four of the six have not even been awarded yet (Genoa, Kluge, Isom, Dinner).
HCFCD is not moving dirt on ANY of the projects in this second group yet, though a construction trailer is on the East TC Jester Site and clearing reportedly started last week.
Less than 10 months remain on the game clock for the 11 DR projects.
How Reliable are Completion-Date Estimates?
But how much can we depend on HCFCD projections given delays and promises to date? We should remember that under Petersen, HCFCD attempted to build the Mercer SWDB on an expedited basis in ONE YEAR. It took FOUR!
Is There Flexibility in Deadline?
The Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers US Department of Housing and Urban Development CDBG funds in Texas, has given itself a year after 2/28/27 to close out all DR jobs.
GLO might be able to give up a few months of that year – if projects are close to completion. For instance, several projects in the second group are currently projected to miss the deadline by less than three months.
However, GLO needs the rest of that year to do its work. Beyond that year, it would literally take an act of Congress to extend the deadline. Good luck with that, given the current political gridlock in Washington.
All Construction Bids Lower than Estimates So Far
Close examination of the HCFCD CDBG spreadsheet shows that ALL DR construction bids so far have come in lower than engineers’ estimates. This could create a budget surplus.
A GLO spokesperson says that in cases like that, the money could be shifted to other projects within the group that might have a deficit. Potentially, extra projects might also be possible.
However, at this stage of the game, finding a shovel-ready project that could be bundled into the DR group would be difficult. Any surplus would likely be grouped into a Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP) at some future date.
We saw this recently when the GLO allocated unspent funds from disasters before Harvey to Harvey-related projects. That sweetened HCFCD’s DR pot by more than $100 million.
At this very moment, county and GLO officials are scrambling to identify eligible projects. However, construction experts I talked to doubt there’s time to do them before the deadline – even if one or more could be identified.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2026
3170 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DR-and-MIT-Project-Locations.jpg?fit=1100%2C823&ssl=18231100adminadmin2026-05-04 21:20:512026-05-05 08:10:38HCFCD Document Shows It Misled Commissioners, Public on CDBG Funding Worth Hundreds of Millions
MoCo P4 Commissioner Matt Gray on Growth, Flooding, Responsible Development
5/6/27 – Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray addressed a packed East Montgomery County Chamber luncheon today about the often conflicting issues of property rights, growth, flooding and public safety. Both during the meeting and in an hour-long, one-on-one interview after it, he stressed the need for responsible development that mitigated downstream flooding impacts.
Managing Growth
Montgomery County has consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing counties in America. And Gray’s Precinct 4 alone expects to add another 14,000 to 16,000 rooftops in the next five years.
Gray is finishing his first term and running for another. “If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you’ve heard me talk about steering and managing the growth. That’s been my mission and my office’s mission,” Gray told the crowd.
In that regard, he talked about helping to update Montgomery County’s:
Catching Up with Past Growth
He also discussed catching up with past growth. “We’re just now addressing issues and roads that have been a burr under the saddle for 20, 25 years,” said Gray. “You get all these new developments off a lonely country road. Well, it’s no longer a lonely country road. Next thing you know…you can’t move. And I get 50 calls a day.”
Funding Challenges and Triumphs
Gray also talked about his efforts in Washington, D.C. and with the Texas General Land Office to fund badly needed flood-mitigation and drainage projects. In the “win column,” Gray points to:
Focus Now Shifting to Execution
“It was a nightmare to get the grants,” said Gray. “But I’ve got an awesome team that does an exceptional job.” Under his leadership, they applied for $130 million in grants and so far have received almost $70 million.
His focus now has shifted to executing those projects.
Gray, a construction expert and project management professional, has employed a number of strategies to improve his staff’s efficiency. He has:
Gray emphasizes action. As the Chamber’s moderator said, “Everyone in this room knows that – you and your office – when you see something that needs to be done, you just do it. You find a way to make it happen!”
“We Want Responsible Development”
Gray continued, “Our message is ‘we want responsible development.’ So what does that mean? It means a lot of things to me including, ‘we don’t want to flood our new residents or people downstream.'”
“We spent a lot of man hours sitting together, working through the drainage criteria manuals,” he added. “And we addressed the Beat-the-Peak issue. We struck that out and built in a lot more detention requirements than ever existed previously in this county.”
Beat-the-Peak refers to a loophole in previous regulations that let developers avoid building detention basins if they could prove they could get their stormwater to a river before the peak of a flood arrived.
The theory was that that would not be adding to the peak. But in practice, it encouraged everyone to get their water to the river as quickly as possible – exactly the opposite of what you want to do in a flood.
Gray who has fond memories of growing up near the East Fork San Jacinto and FM1485 is haunted now by the sight of flooded neighborhoods there.
If anyone can make a difference, I’m sure he can. He’s a man on a mission.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/26
3172 Days since Hurricane Harvey
New Hurricane Forecast Cone Graphics for 2026 Season
5/5/26 – Hurricane forecast cones will have a new look for 2026 according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As part of a suite of product improvements, NHC will implement two new tropical products and services:
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone
The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.
The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds. See sample below.
What to know about the new cone graphic:
Another Experimental Feature
NHC will also introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.
The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.
New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii
New products and services for the Hawaiian Islands include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic. This expands the NHC’s storm surge products and services that are currently serving the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of America coastline, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
What to know about the new storm surge products for Hawaii:
These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/5/2026 based on press release from NHC
3171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Document Shows It Misled Commissioners, Public on CDBG Funding Worth Hundreds of Millions
5/4/2026 – On May 1, 2026, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) finally submitted a detailed spreadsheet demanded by Harris County Commissioners. It shows key milestones in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects receiving $868 million in federal funding.
The data raises two red flags:
Here is the detailed spreadsheet. The data directly contradicts rosy, high-level claims made by Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, in Commissioners Court on January 8, 2026. At that time…
So, let’s look at the deadlines with the detailed information now in hand. This story has the sad feeling of a football game with the home team down 30 points and only three minutes left on the scoreboard clock.
Deadlines Looming
The 28 CDBG projects are split into two groups with different deadlines:
DR projects have, by far, the tightest deadline – February 28, 2027. MIT projects have longer; 50% of that money must be spent by March 31, 2028, with the remainder spent by 2032. So, let’s look at DR projects now and save the MIT discussion for another day.
New Doc Predicts Only Five DR Projects Will Beat 2/28/27 Deadline
Of the 11 DR projects, HCFCD now predicts that only five will beat their deadline. (Estimate “substantial completion” dates shown in parentheses below.)
Of these five projects, HCFCD is only actually moving dirt on two so far.
Can they be completed in time? The Arbor Oaks job is a cautionary example. Contractors have completed only 30% of the job in half the allotted time.
Six DR Projects Now Predicted to Miss 2/28/27 Deadline
According to HCFCD’s latest spreadsheet, the six projects below will miss their deadlines. Construction bids on four of the six have not even been awarded yet (Genoa, Kluge, Isom, Dinner).
HCFCD is not moving dirt on ANY of the projects in this second group yet, though a construction trailer is on the East TC Jester Site and clearing reportedly started last week.
Less than 10 months remain on the game clock for the 11 DR projects.
How Reliable are Completion-Date Estimates?
But how much can we depend on HCFCD projections given delays and promises to date? We should remember that under Petersen, HCFCD attempted to build the Mercer SWDB on an expedited basis in ONE YEAR. It took FOUR!
Is There Flexibility in Deadline?
The Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers US Department of Housing and Urban Development CDBG funds in Texas, has given itself a year after 2/28/27 to close out all DR jobs.
GLO might be able to give up a few months of that year – if projects are close to completion. For instance, several projects in the second group are currently projected to miss the deadline by less than three months.
However, GLO needs the rest of that year to do its work. Beyond that year, it would literally take an act of Congress to extend the deadline. Good luck with that, given the current political gridlock in Washington.
All Construction Bids Lower than Estimates So Far
Close examination of the HCFCD CDBG spreadsheet shows that ALL DR construction bids so far have come in lower than engineers’ estimates. This could create a budget surplus.
A GLO spokesperson says that in cases like that, the money could be shifted to other projects within the group that might have a deficit. Potentially, extra projects might also be possible.
However, at this stage of the game, finding a shovel-ready project that could be bundled into the DR group would be difficult. Any surplus would likely be grouped into a Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP) at some future date.
We saw this recently when the GLO allocated unspent funds from disasters before Harvey to Harvey-related projects. That sweetened HCFCD’s DR pot by more than $100 million.
At this very moment, county and GLO officials are scrambling to identify eligible projects. However, construction experts I talked to doubt there’s time to do them before the deadline – even if one or more could be identified.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2026
3170 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.