7/29/2026 – The allure of living near water is both primal and spiritual. Water is soothing, refreshing, sustaining, beautiful, comforting and necessary. For much of human history, people HAD to live near water. Rivers became cradles of civilization.
But occasionally, river flooding also brings destruction. And when modern engineering and infrastructure made it possible to live farther from rivers, most moved to higher ground away from danger.
Empty townhomes near San Jacinto West Fork stand a mute witness to the power of nature after Harvey.
Still, for some people, living near water is worth the risk and uncertainty … so much so that they often pay a premium for homes with higher flood risk. Whether that premium is worthwhile depends on your disposable income and risk tolerance. Go into a major purchase with eyes wide open. Here are several things to consider.
Understanding Flood Risk is Crucial
If I were advising a close friend buying a home near water in the Houston area, I would say this:
“Buy for the water view only if you fully understand what comes with it.”
Bob Rehak
Waterfront homes — whether on a lake, river, creek, bayou, or even a retention pond — often command a price premium. But in Houston, that premium can come with higher flood risk, higher insurance costs, more difficult resale, and greater uncertainty as flood maps and rainfall assumptions evolve.
Recent draft FEMA flood maps, for example, significantly expand mapped floodplains in Harris County. Meanwhile, many other surrounding counties, eager to expand their tax bases, have not updated flood maps in decades.
10 Key Considerations
Here are several topics I would explore before making an offer.
1. Has the structure ever flooded?
This may be the single most important question. Don’t just ask the seller.
Also:
Talk with neighbors.
Check county flood records if available.
Look for old news photos.
Search social media after Harvey, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Imelda, and other major storms.
Ask whether water entered the structure—not merely the yard.
A home that stayed dry during Harvey generally deserves a closer look than one that flooded repeatedly.
2. Is the home near the water or above the water?
Those are very different.
A house perched 40 feet above a lake may have spectacular views with little flood risk.
A house six feet above a bayou may have the same view — but vastly different risk.
In Houston’s relatively flat terrain, the elevation of the first finished floor relative to expected flood levels matters far more than the horizontal distance to the water.
Two houses across the street from one another may differ by only 18 inches in slab elevation — but that can dramatically affect both flood risk and insurance premiums. We saw that in the Elm Grove flooding in 2019.
4. Don’t stop with FEMA maps.
FEMA maps are useful. But they are not the complete story.
FEMA itself notes that mapped flood zones are only one tool for understanding risk. And few FEMA maps incorporate the risk from street flooding. Many streets (especially in new neighborhoods) are designed to become auxiliary storage for stormwater during major events.
5. Look upstream—not just nearby.
Most buyers look at the kitchen. Look at the entire watershed.
The house itself may not have changed. But the watershed may have.
Pay particular attention to upstream land-use change. In rapidly growing watersheds such as Spring Creek, Lake Creek, Cypress Creek and the San Jacinto River basin, today’s flood risk is not necessarily tomorrow’s. A home that has never flooded can become more vulnerable given rapid upstream development, insufficient mitigation or changing channel conditions.
6. Study the neighborhood’s drainage.
Some homes flood because of rivers. Others flood because streets become rivers.
Ask:
How quickly does water leave?
Are storm sewers undersized?
Is there ponding after ordinary thunderstorms?
Do roads become impassable before houses flood?
Access matters. Especially during emergencies. A dry house isn’t very useful if emergency vehicles can’t reach it.
7. Budget insurance before buying.
Many buyers discover the insurance cost after they’ve emotionally committed.
That’s backwards. Get actual quotes first.
Compare:
National Flood Insurance Program
Private flood insurers
Remember:
Homeowners insurance generally does not cover flooding
Flood insurance usually has a 30-day waiting period.
Under Risk Rating 2.0, premiums now vary substantially depending on elevation and risk characteristics. FEMA no longer quotes nationally subsidized prices based solely on flood zones. Quotes are now on an actuarial basis.
8. Think about resale.
Ask yourself:
“If I needed to sell this house in ten years, would someone else hesitate for the same reasons I’m hesitating today?”
Flood disclosure laws are becoming more robust.
Insurance costs are becoming more visible.
Risk information is easier to obtain than it was 15 years ago.
Future buyers may discount flood-prone properties more heavily than previous generations did.
9. Separate emotional value from financial value.
Water views have real value. They also have real costs.
Ask yourself:
Is the view worth an extra $100,000?
Would it still be worth it if my insurance doubled?
What would happen to my equity after a major flood?
In Houston, water itself isn’t the risk—low elevation is.
Some of the region’s finest neighborhoods are built around lakes, rivers, and bayous and have experienced little flooding because they’re situated on high ground. Others have flooded multiple times despite looking attractive on a sunny day.
When evaluating property, think like an engineer, not a tourist. Ask, “Where will the water go during the worst storm of the next 30 years?” If no one can answer that satisfactorily, keep looking.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/2026
3256 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SJR_511_030.jpg?fit=1800%2C1200&ssl=112001800adminadmin2026-07-29 16:03:172026-07-29 16:03:18Advice to Those Considering Living Near Water
07/28/2026 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has released new figures showing where it has spent money through 2026 Q2. The County has spent only $49.15 million dollars in the entire San Jacinto Watershed since passage of the 2018 Flood Bond eight years ago.
That compares with $367,450,000 worth of projects advertised for the San Jacinto in the 2018 Bond Project list.
Thanks goodness HCFCD got a new executive director last month!
Little Money Spent on Construction
The previous executive director kept slighted the San Jacinto watershed for years. Studies dragged out for years with no end in sight. HCFCD spent little money in the watershed. Period. And it spent even less on construction.
When you look at the spending by project stage, construction ranked highest. That actually surprised me.
Calculated with data from HCFCD Activities Page
But of the $21.7 million total spent on construction, HCFCD spent only one third on capital improvement projects (CIP construction = $7.28 M). The remainder went to maintenance.
While maintenance spending is absolutely critical, we shouldn’t forget that it is designed to keep flooding from getting worse as opposed to CIP projects which actually improve flood risk.
So, in eight years, HCFCD spent only about $7 million to actually improve flood risk in the county’s largest watershed.
To date, HCFCD hasn’t come close to delivering what was promised in 2018.
What Did Bond Advertising Promote?
The final project list came with 13 Bond IDs for the San Jacinto Watershed; each contained one or more projects. Together the money allocated for them totaled $367,450,000. So, with only $49.15 million spent to date, just 13% of promised funding has been delivered in the last 8 years.
Start drilling down further; you will find even more egregious examples.
Floodgate Example
Take for example the new floodgates on Lake Houston. Initial plans allocated $70 million ($50 million coming from the federal government and $20 million from the flood bond as a local match).
If the reported figures are accurate, the county actually spent only $20,000 so far – one thousandth of the local match. And 1/3,500th of the total. In fairness, perhaps they’re waiting for the City to finish the engineering.
Dredging Example
And then there’s dredging. Dredging was supposed to receive $50 million ($10 million from local funds with a $40 million match). But so far, HCFCD reports only $7.28 million spent for dredging. (See CI-61.)
Hopefully, Marcus Stuckett, HCFCD’s new executive director, can right some of the slights from the past administration. On a positive note, the recent start of construction on the Taylor Gully/Woodridge project may help turn the San Jacinto spending drought around.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/28/2026
3255 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/HCFCD-Spending-by-Stage-in-San-Jacinto-2018-2026.png?fit=2018%2C1190&ssl=111902018adminadmin2026-07-28 21:46:362026-07-28 23:35:41HCFCD 2026 Q2 Spending Update: San Jacinto Watershed Still Ignored
07/27/26 – New spending figures are available from Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) through the end of 2026 Q2. This quarter marks the end of Dr. Tina Petersen’s administration and the start of new Executive Director Marcus Stuckett’s. In that sense, it represents (pardon the pun) a watershed moment.
HCFCD spending data shows that Stuckett inherits a production pipeline that was not pushing flood-mitigation projects into and through construction at historically normal rates.
Eight years into what was supposed to have been a 10-year bond program, Harris County has spent only 37% of the dollars approved by voters while inflation in the heavy-construction sector of the economy has totaled more than 50%.
As a consequence, inflation is taking a huge toll on the Flood Bond’s purchasing power…and making residents live with higher flood risk longer than necessary.
But there’s also some good news: 6 HCFCD construction jobs on the Harris County Commissioners Court Agenda this week!
Let’s look at each of these points.
Construction Slowdown
Shortly after voters approved the flood bond in 2018, spending on flood-mitigation projects soared. But then, the team that sold the bond and defined hundreds of projects was pushed out by Democrats starting in 2021.
Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia managed to get Dr. Tina Petersen appointed head of HCFCD at the start of 2022. And ever since, for whatever reason, project activity has plummeted. You can clearly see it in the rate of spending below – despite having billions of dollars available.
HCFCD spending since 2018 Flood Bond as of 26Q2.Far right reflects only 2 quarters. But even doubled, 2026 would represent a continuation of the long-term decline.
The gray area in the graph above represents construction spending. It has dropped almost by half since its peak during the previous administration. Construction is down to $90 million per year [annualized] from $160 million per year [actual].
As a result of the slowdown, Harris County could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief, whose deadlines are fast approaching.
Lower-than-Normal Construction Expenditures as Percent of Total
Typically, construction accounts for about 65% of most flood-mitigation projects, give or take 10%.
That number can vary even more depending on land-acquisition costs, environmental permitting, etc. There are always exceptions. But on average, 65% is considered a defensible rule of thumb for planning purposes by many flood experts; some suggest the figure may even be higher.
So, how has HCFCD spending compared? It falls far short of 65%. Looking at everything spent to date, only 46% has been on construction. But even that number may be deceptively high.
Construction spending on maintenance masks what’s happening on the capital-improvement side. So let’s also look at each sub-category.
HCFCD capital-improvement construction spending to date is just 37% of all capital improvement costs. And the Total percentage is buoyed up by construction spending on Maintenance.
Remember that only capital-improvement construction dollars actually reduce flood risk.
Only 37% of Bond Money Spent After 8 Years into 10-Year Bond Program
There’s another significant takeaway from last quarter’s update. HCFCD has spent only 37% of the bond money approved by voters – eight years into what was supposed to have been a 10-year bond program.
Sorting expenditures on the HCFCD Activity Page by “Fund Source” shows that only $932.69 million of the $2.5 billion bond has actually been spent to date. This excludes district and partner funds.
54% Inflation in Heavy Construction Sector Since Start of Flood Bond
But all the data above illustrates only part of the problem. Cumulative inflation in the heavy-construction sector of the economy totals 54% from mid-2018 (when voters approved the Flood Bond) to mid-2026. (Source: Federal Highway Administration’s National Highway Construction Cost Index, considered by many as a good analog for flood-control work).
This inflation has progressively eroded the purchasing power of flood-mitigation construction budgets.
A Bad Institutional Hangover
Problems moving projects into and through HCFCD’s production pipeline in a timely way has resulted in:
Inflation gobbling up a large percentage the bond’s purchasing power
Fast-approaching deadlines jeopardizing hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding
People living with higher flood risk longer than necessary.
There is some good news in all of this on the horizon. It looks like HCFCD’s new Executive Director, Marcus Stuckett, is making an immediate impact. This Thursday’s Commissioner’s Court agenda shows six CIP projects starting construction or going out for construction bids. They include:
Meyergrove Stormwater Detention Basin
Halls Bayou Channel Conveyance Improvements – Phase II
T.C. Jester Stormwater Detention Basins – Compartments 1A and 2
Hopefully Stuckett can get construction projects moving again.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/26
3254 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Construction-as-Percent-of-Total-Table.png?fit=1880%2C584&ssl=15841880adminadmin2026-07-27 17:38:302026-07-27 17:38:32HCFCD Construction Slowdown May Be on Verge of Turnaround
Advice to Those Considering Living Near Water
7/29/2026 – The allure of living near water is both primal and spiritual. Water is soothing, refreshing, sustaining, beautiful, comforting and necessary. For much of human history, people HAD to live near water. Rivers became cradles of civilization.
But occasionally, river flooding also brings destruction. And when modern engineering and infrastructure made it possible to live farther from rivers, most moved to higher ground away from danger.
Still, for some people, living near water is worth the risk and uncertainty … so much so that they often pay a premium for homes with higher flood risk. Whether that premium is worthwhile depends on your disposable income and risk tolerance. Go into a major purchase with eyes wide open. Here are several things to consider.
Understanding Flood Risk is Crucial
If I were advising a close friend buying a home near water in the Houston area, I would say this:
Waterfront homes — whether on a lake, river, creek, bayou, or even a retention pond — often command a price premium. But in Houston, that premium can come with higher flood risk, higher insurance costs, more difficult resale, and greater uncertainty as flood maps and rainfall assumptions evolve.
Recent draft FEMA flood maps, for example, significantly expand mapped floodplains in Harris County. Meanwhile, many other surrounding counties, eager to expand their tax bases, have not updated flood maps in decades.
10 Key Considerations
Here are several topics I would explore before making an offer.
1. Has the structure ever flooded?
This may be the single most important question. Don’t just ask the seller.
Also:
A home that stayed dry during Harvey generally deserves a closer look than one that flooded repeatedly.
2. Is the home near the water or above the water?
Those are very different.
A house perched 40 feet above a lake may have spectacular views with little flood risk.
A house six feet above a bayou may have the same view — but vastly different risk.
In Houston’s relatively flat terrain, the elevation of the first finished floor relative to expected flood levels matters far more than the horizontal distance to the water.
3. How high is the slab?
Ask for the:
Two houses across the street from one another may differ by only 18 inches in slab elevation — but that can dramatically affect both flood risk and insurance premiums. We saw that in the Elm Grove flooding in 2019.
4. Don’t stop with FEMA maps.
FEMA maps are useful. But they are not the complete story.
In Harris County during Harvey, more homes flooded outside the mapped 100-year floodplain than flooded inside it (Page 13).
Maps also become outdated as:
FEMA itself notes that mapped flood zones are only one tool for understanding risk. And few FEMA maps incorporate the risk from street flooding. Many streets (especially in new neighborhoods) are designed to become auxiliary storage for stormwater during major events.
5. Look upstream—not just nearby.
Most buyers look at the kitchen. Look at the entire watershed.
Questions you should ask include:
The house itself may not have changed. But the watershed may have.
Pay particular attention to upstream land-use change. In rapidly growing watersheds such as Spring Creek, Lake Creek, Cypress Creek and the San Jacinto River basin, today’s flood risk is not necessarily tomorrow’s. A home that has never flooded can become more vulnerable given rapid upstream development, insufficient mitigation or changing channel conditions.
6. Study the neighborhood’s drainage.
Some homes flood because of rivers. Others flood because streets become rivers.
Ask:
Access matters. Especially during emergencies. A dry house isn’t very useful if emergency vehicles can’t reach it.
7. Budget insurance before buying.
Many buyers discover the insurance cost after they’ve emotionally committed.
That’s backwards. Get actual quotes first.
Compare:
Remember:
8. Think about resale.
Ask yourself:
Flood disclosure laws are becoming more robust.
Insurance costs are becoming more visible.
Risk information is easier to obtain than it was 15 years ago.
Future buyers may discount flood-prone properties more heavily than previous generations did.
9. Separate emotional value from financial value.
Water views have real value. They also have real costs.
Ask yourself:
Only buyers can answer those questions. And remember: a home in a 100-year floodplain has a 1-in-4 chance of flooding during the life of a 30-year mortgage.
10. Look for evidence of thoughtful engineering.
Examples include:
Minimum code is just that—a minimum. Builders who voluntarily exceed it often produce more resilient homes.
A study by former Harris County Engineer John Blount found higher building codes reduced flood damage by 20X during Harvey.
Bottom Line
In Houston, water itself isn’t the risk—low elevation is.
Some of the region’s finest neighborhoods are built around lakes, rivers, and bayous and have experienced little flooding because they’re situated on high ground. Others have flooded multiple times despite looking attractive on a sunny day.
When evaluating property, think like an engineer, not a tourist. Ask, “Where will the water go during the worst storm of the next 30 years?” If no one can answer that satisfactorily, keep looking.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/2026
3256 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD 2026 Q2 Spending Update: San Jacinto Watershed Still Ignored
07/28/2026 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has released new figures showing where it has spent money through 2026 Q2. The County has spent only $49.15 million dollars in the entire San Jacinto Watershed since passage of the 2018 Flood Bond eight years ago.
That compares with $367,450,000 worth of projects advertised for the San Jacinto in the 2018 Bond Project list.
Thanks goodness HCFCD got a new executive director last month!
Little Money Spent on Construction
The previous executive director kept slighted the San Jacinto watershed for years. Studies dragged out for years with no end in sight. HCFCD spent little money in the watershed. Period. And it spent even less on construction.
When you look at the spending by project stage, construction ranked highest. That actually surprised me.
But of the $21.7 million total spent on construction, HCFCD spent only one third on capital improvement projects (CIP construction = $7.28 M). The remainder went to maintenance.
While maintenance spending is absolutely critical, we shouldn’t forget that it is designed to keep flooding from getting worse as opposed to CIP projects which actually improve flood risk.
So, in eight years, HCFCD spent only about $7 million to actually improve flood risk in the county’s largest watershed.
To date, HCFCD hasn’t come close to delivering what was promised in 2018.
What Did Bond Advertising Promote?
The final project list came with 13 Bond IDs for the San Jacinto Watershed; each contained one or more projects. Together the money allocated for them totaled $367,450,000. So, with only $49.15 million spent to date, just 13% of promised funding has been delivered in the last 8 years.
Start drilling down further; you will find even more egregious examples.
Floodgate Example
Take for example the new floodgates on Lake Houston. Initial plans allocated $70 million ($50 million coming from the federal government and $20 million from the flood bond as a local match).
If the reported figures are accurate, the county actually spent only $20,000 so far – one thousandth of the local match. And 1/3,500th of the total. In fairness, perhaps they’re waiting for the City to finish the engineering.
Dredging Example
And then there’s dredging. Dredging was supposed to receive $50 million ($10 million from local funds with a $40 million match). But so far, HCFCD reports only $7.28 million spent for dredging. (See CI-61.)
I’ll bet Charles Cunningham’s new Lake Houston Dredging District could use some of the difference!
How to Explore Data Yourself
There are millions of ways to slice and dice this data. Explore it for yourself. Here’s how.
Hopefully, Marcus Stuckett, HCFCD’s new executive director, can right some of the slights from the past administration. On a positive note, the recent start of construction on the Taylor Gully/Woodridge project may help turn the San Jacinto spending drought around.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/28/2026
3255 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Construction Slowdown May Be on Verge of Turnaround
07/27/26 – New spending figures are available from Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) through the end of 2026 Q2. This quarter marks the end of Dr. Tina Petersen’s administration and the start of new Executive Director Marcus Stuckett’s. In that sense, it represents (pardon the pun) a watershed moment.
HCFCD spending data shows that Stuckett inherits a production pipeline that was not pushing flood-mitigation projects into and through construction at historically normal rates.
Eight years into what was supposed to have been a 10-year bond program, Harris County has spent only 37% of the dollars approved by voters while inflation in the heavy-construction sector of the economy has totaled more than 50%.
As a consequence, inflation is taking a huge toll on the Flood Bond’s purchasing power…and making residents live with higher flood risk longer than necessary.
But there’s also some good news: 6 HCFCD construction jobs on the Harris County Commissioners Court Agenda this week!
Let’s look at each of these points.
Construction Slowdown
Shortly after voters approved the flood bond in 2018, spending on flood-mitigation projects soared. But then, the team that sold the bond and defined hundreds of projects was pushed out by Democrats starting in 2021.
Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia managed to get Dr. Tina Petersen appointed head of HCFCD at the start of 2022. And ever since, for whatever reason, project activity has plummeted. You can clearly see it in the rate of spending below – despite having billions of dollars available.
HCFCD spending since 2018 Flood Bond as of 26Q2. Far right reflects only 2 quarters. But even doubled, 2026 would represent a continuation of the long-term decline.
The gray area in the graph above represents construction spending. It has dropped almost by half since its peak during the previous administration. Construction is down to $90 million per year [annualized] from $160 million per year [actual].
As a result of the slowdown, Harris County could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief, whose deadlines are fast approaching.
Lower-than-Normal Construction Expenditures as Percent of Total
Typically, construction accounts for about 65% of most flood-mitigation projects, give or take 10%.
That number can vary even more depending on land-acquisition costs, environmental permitting, etc. There are always exceptions. But on average, 65% is considered a defensible rule of thumb for planning purposes by many flood experts; some suggest the figure may even be higher.
So, how has HCFCD spending compared? It falls far short of 65%. Looking at everything spent to date, only 46% has been on construction. But even that number may be deceptively high.
Construction spending on maintenance masks what’s happening on the capital-improvement side. So let’s also look at each sub-category.
HCFCD capital-improvement construction spending to date is just 37% of all capital improvement costs. And the Total percentage is buoyed up by construction spending on Maintenance.
Remember that only capital-improvement construction dollars actually reduce flood risk.
Only 37% of Bond Money Spent After 8 Years into 10-Year Bond Program
There’s another significant takeaway from last quarter’s update. HCFCD has spent only 37% of the bond money approved by voters – eight years into what was supposed to have been a 10-year bond program.
Sorting expenditures on the HCFCD Activity Page by “Fund Source” shows that only $932.69 million of the $2.5 billion bond has actually been spent to date. This excludes district and partner funds.
54% Inflation in Heavy Construction Sector Since Start of Flood Bond
But all the data above illustrates only part of the problem. Cumulative inflation in the heavy-construction sector of the economy totals 54% from mid-2018 (when voters approved the Flood Bond) to mid-2026. (Source: Federal Highway Administration’s National Highway Construction Cost Index, considered by many as a good analog for flood-control work).
This inflation has progressively eroded the purchasing power of flood-mitigation construction budgets.
A Bad Institutional Hangover
Problems moving projects into and through HCFCD’s production pipeline in a timely way has resulted in:
Yet Commissioner Adrian Garcia defended former HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen to the bitter end… against the interests of his own constituents. It will be interesting to see if this affects his re-election campaign this Fall.
Some Good News This Thursday
There is some good news in all of this on the horizon. It looks like HCFCD’s new Executive Director, Marcus Stuckett, is making an immediate impact. This Thursday’s Commissioner’s Court agenda shows six CIP projects starting construction or going out for construction bids. They include:
Hopefully Stuckett can get construction projects moving again.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/26
3254 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.