4/29/26 – The National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston Office has issued severe weather outlooks and excessive rainfall forecasts for Wednesday night 4/29/26 and Friday 5/1/2026. Thursday 4/30 2026 also has a chance of flash flooding.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect when.
Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Possibly Severe This Evening
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A period of active weather will begin today over the region and linger into late Friday. A frontal boundary is currently approaching SE TX from the north. Ahead of this boundary a moist and unstable air mass is in place. With daytime heating, instability will increase through the day.”
“Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to become severe. Large hail appears to be the primary threat although damaging winds are possible also,” says Lindner. He also says that tornados are possible. “The main threat for severe weather will be generally north of I-10 in the evening hours. Storms will gradually weaken toward the southeast into the mid to late evening.”
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 out of 5 severe threat for this afternoon and evening generally north of I-10 and level 1 out of 5 south of I-10. See below.
Although NWS believes the chances of rainfall for the Lake Houston Area are about 30% this evening, rainfall accumulations could be excessive in areas that receive rain – from 1″ to 3″ per hour.
Frontal Boundary Expected to Stall on Thursday
Lindner says, “The frontal boundary will stall between the coast and I-10 with active southwest flow aloft bringing disturbances across the area on Thursday.”
Daytime heating will once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially north of I-10. The severe threat is lower on Thursday with much of the region in the “slightly cooler and more stable air.” However, there will be the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Much of the northwest half of the area is outlooked in a Level 1 out of 4 threat for flash flooding.
100% Chance of Heavy Rain on Friday
NWS forecasts a 100% chance of rain for Friday in the Lake Houston Area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper level storm system will progress eastward over Texas. Additionally, a strong cold front will arrive from the north during the day.
Lindner predicts “… heavy rainfall with potentially training thunderstorms along slow moving boundaries within a very moist air mass.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Level 2 out 4 flash flood threat. With grounds becoming primed over the next 24-48 hours, additional heavy rainfall on Friday could yield more significant run-off.
Much of the severe weather threat will depend on where a surface low forms. For now, the NWS Storm Prediction Center sees Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms – generally south of I-10.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Friday afternoon and evening with falling temperatures. Compared to the recent warm temps, lows will fall into the 50’s and even 40’s over the weekend. Highs should reach the 60’s and 70’s with much lower humidity and gusty north winds.
Gale Conditions Possible Along Coast on Saturday
Strong northerly winds may result in gale conditions for portions of the coastal waters on Saturday.
It’s Getting to Be That Time of Year
May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston. And here comes the rain. Right on time. Looking back to 1991, only June and October have averaged more rainfall.
In that regard, let’s not forget the May storms we had in 2024. They were followed quickly by the derecho later that month. That was definitely a month for the scrapbooks!
Hurricane Season Around the Corner
Hurricane season starts June 1 – just a month away. It’s time to finish those roof repairs, clean out the gutters, trim those dead limbs off the tree in your yard, and stock up on supplies.
And don’t forget to bookmark these sites:
The National Hurricane Center has daily updates on hurricane activity and a wide variety of educational materials for people new to the area and students.
4/28/26 – To everyone in southern Montgomery County and the Lake Houston Area: please consider signing the petition discussed below concerning the proposed Scarborough Development. It may help preserve vital floodplains in your area, thereby reducing your flood risk.
Background on Proposed Development
A Dallas-based developer named Scarborough has purchased 5,300+ acres of land at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork and Spring Creek. Hydrologists say that developing this land would be like aiming a fire hose at the Humble/Kingwood area. Backwater effects could also increase flood risk for Montgomery County residents.
Harris County and City of Houston have already unanimously passed resolutions opposing development of this flood-prone land. However, the Texas General Land Office and School Land Board have reportedly pledged $140 million to help develop it.
Petition to Stop Government Secrecy Surrounding the Plan
Unfortunately, the GLO and Attorney General Paxton’s office are concealing details of how the state is spending your tax dollars to flood you.
Please forward this link to everyone you know in the area and anyone concerned about open, transparent government.
Also, please talk this issue up at community events. The poster below summarizes key points.
Here’s the area purchased by Scarborough. See area outlined in red below.
Blue and gray shaded areas represent flood zones.
Cypress Creek, Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork all converge here. Flood heights could reach 18 to 25 feet above dry land in this area.
Base Flood Elevations near confluence
Here are FEMA’s CURRENT effective floodplains and floodways.
Crosshatch = Floodway, Aqua = 100-year floodplain, Brown – 500-year floodplain.
However, keep in mind that that map is in the process of being replaced. New maps show even more of the property in more dangerous flood zones.
MAAPnext shows new flood maps based on post-Harvey data, with a slider that lets you see how much floodplains and floodways expanded across the southern portion of Scarborough’s land.
Please Help: Sign Petition Now
By signing this petition, you are advocating for responsible development that prioritizes the welfare of our community in Spring, TX and the surrounding areas of Kingwood, Humble and the Lake Houston area by preserving this land and keeping it as a green space.
Please help prevent a potentially disastrous project and ensure a more secure future for us all. Please sign this petition to make a stand against the Scarborough Lane Development. Now! It will only take a minute.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2026
3164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/20250417-Ryko-property-copy-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C659&ssl=16591100adminadmin2026-04-28 15:34:292026-04-30 19:57:05Sign Petition to Reduce Your Flood Risk, Protect Floodplain
It may seem insane to talk about depopulation in most places. The world has grown from 1 to 8 billion people in the last two centuries. And it may seem even more insane in a region like Houston.
“We’ve built our entire world—our economies, cities, institutions, and expectations—on the assumption that growth never ends,” says King. “In 63 countries, home to 28 percent of the world’s people, populations are shrinking right now. China’s population is collapsing. Europe is aging into irrelevance. Global fertility has plummeted to barely above replacement level—and it’s still falling.” He continues…
“Yet while policymakers scramble and nations face demographic catastrophe, most people remain blissfully unaware.”
Bill King
Suspend Disbelief Momentarily
So, let’s suspend disbelief for a few minutes and discuss what the implications of shrinking population growth could be for flood control – both negative and positive.
Shrinking population growth would change hydrologic, financial, and planning assumptions behind flood control. The impacts would be seen over time in:
Land-use change
Infrastructure financing
Risk distribution.
Central Houston from over the Beltway 8/US59 Interchange
Slower Population Growth Would Slow Increases in Runoff
Population growth typically increases flooding risk because it increases impervious cover (roofs, streets, parking lots). Impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and increase peak discharge.
If growth slows, so would peak discharges. Flood infrastructure may end up over-sized if development slows enough. People in danger of flooding may consider that good news. It lowers their risk and gives them more time to implement solutions.
Depopulation could make it easier for flood infrastructure to keep up with development. Agencies could shift from reactive to preventive flood management. Infrastructure projects could catch up with development. However, it’s not all good news.
Increasing Financial Pressure
On the other hand, slower population growth would make it more difficult to fund large, capital-intensive flood-mitigation projects.
We usually fund such projects through some combination of property taxes, impact fees and/or bond programs. When property taxes grow more slowly, impact fees decline sharply, and developer-built detention capacity decreases, flood control agencies may struggle. This is reportedly a common problem in shrinking or no-growth cities.
At the same time, long-term infrastructure liabilities grow. When population stagnates or shrinks, as it did in Rust Belt Cities for decades, so does the tax base. But maintenance costs remain, increasing the per-capita infrastructure burden. Fewer people must support aging drainage systems.
Land Conservation Becomes Easier
On the positive side again, slower growth increases opportunities for floodplain preservation. With less pressure to build subdivisions in floodplains and over wetlands, there’s more room for detention space and green infrastructure. This can dramatically reduce downstream flood peaks.
Preservation is already much more cost-effective than flood mitigation. In a low-demand, cost-constrained environment, preservation becomes even more financially attractive.
Sediment and Channel Impacts Decline
Another potential positive. Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve researched hundreds of articles showing how development drives:
This could potentially reduce flooding impacts and dredging requirements downstream.
Change in Planning Horizons
Planners usually design flood infrastructure for a service life of 50 to 100 years. If population growth slows, that infrastructure may appear overbuilt initially, but the extra capacity could support the surrounding population over a longer period.
Planning Assumptions May Become Obsolete
Many flood models reportedly assume steady population and urban growth. If demographic reality changes, agencies may need to update/debate:
Watershed build-out assumptions
Impervious cover forecasts
Detention requirements
These will likely become hotly contested public debates fueled by shrinking demand for the services of contractors and homebuilders eager to maintain their profitability. Competition will become cutthroat in shrinking industries. And pressure on legislators and regulators to “cut us some slack” may become irresistible.
If regional population declines, companies will struggle to survive by offering higher quality. This could continue to fuel population growth in suburban submarkets. We saw this in northern rust-belt cities such as Detroit and Cleveland during the last century. Consumers will always look for better quality, especially as the aging infrastructure in urban cores deteriorates.
Hydrologists tell me these are usually more effective and more economical than small, distributed detention ponds.
Conclusion
While shrinking or slower population growth could generally reduce future flood-risk, it will also reduce funding capacity for mitigation.
Shrinking population should reduce growth of impervious cover, runoff, sedimentation, and revenue. But it will also increase the maintenance burden per capita.
The net result will depend on whether the hydrologic benefits of slower development outweigh the fiscal constraints on flood-mitigation investment.
Changes will not happen overnight. Developers will keep building because they believe buyers will trade up from older housing.
In other cities, it has taken 20-30 years for reality to catch up after population decline begins. During that time, superior new housing will capture demand from older neighborhoods. I just pray the new housing is not in risky, flood-prone areas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/27/26 with help from Bill King, Several Hydrologists, and ChatGPT
3163 Days since Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/RJR_6472.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-04-27 21:30:112026-04-28 11:37:43Surprising Impacts of Depopulation on Flood Control
Severe Weather Threats This Week
4/29/26 – The National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston Office has issued severe weather outlooks and excessive rainfall forecasts for Wednesday night 4/29/26 and Friday 5/1/2026. Thursday 4/30 2026 also has a chance of flash flooding.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect when.
Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Possibly Severe This Evening
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A period of active weather will begin today over the region and linger into late Friday. A frontal boundary is currently approaching SE TX from the north. Ahead of this boundary a moist and unstable air mass is in place. With daytime heating, instability will increase through the day.”
“Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to become severe. Large hail appears to be the primary threat although damaging winds are possible also,” says Lindner. He also says that tornados are possible. “The main threat for severe weather will be generally north of I-10 in the evening hours. Storms will gradually weaken toward the southeast into the mid to late evening.”
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 out of 5 severe threat for this afternoon and evening generally north of I-10 and level 1 out of 5 south of I-10. See below.
Although NWS believes the chances of rainfall for the Lake Houston Area are about 30% this evening, rainfall accumulations could be excessive in areas that receive rain – from 1″ to 3″ per hour.
Frontal Boundary Expected to Stall on Thursday
Lindner says, “The frontal boundary will stall between the coast and I-10 with active southwest flow aloft bringing disturbances across the area on Thursday.”
Daytime heating will once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially north of I-10. The severe threat is lower on Thursday with much of the region in the “slightly cooler and more stable air.” However, there will be the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Much of the northwest half of the area is outlooked in a Level 1 out of 4 threat for flash flooding.
100% Chance of Heavy Rain on Friday
NWS forecasts a 100% chance of rain for Friday in the Lake Houston Area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper level storm system will progress eastward over Texas. Additionally, a strong cold front will arrive from the north during the day.
Lindner predicts “… heavy rainfall with potentially training thunderstorms along slow moving boundaries within a very moist air mass.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Level 2 out 4 flash flood threat. With grounds becoming primed over the next 24-48 hours, additional heavy rainfall on Friday could yield more significant run-off.
Much of the severe weather threat will depend on where a surface low forms. For now, the NWS Storm Prediction Center sees Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms – generally south of I-10.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Friday afternoon and evening with falling temperatures. Compared to the recent warm temps, lows will fall into the 50’s and even 40’s over the weekend. Highs should reach the 60’s and 70’s with much lower humidity and gusty north winds.
Gale Conditions Possible Along Coast on Saturday
Strong northerly winds may result in gale conditions for portions of the coastal waters on Saturday.
It’s Getting to Be That Time of Year
May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston. And here comes the rain. Right on time. Looking back to 1991, only June and October have averaged more rainfall.
In that regard, let’s not forget the May storms we had in 2024. They were followed quickly by the derecho later that month. That was definitely a month for the scrapbooks!
Hurricane Season Around the Corner
Hurricane season starts June 1 – just a month away. It’s time to finish those roof repairs, clean out the gutters, trim those dead limbs off the tree in your yard, and stock up on supplies.
And don’t forget to bookmark these sites:
The links page of this website also offers links to dozens of other helpful websites. Before hurricane season starts, make sure to check out these preparedness guides.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/26
3165 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Sign Petition to Reduce Your Flood Risk, Protect Floodplain
4/28/26 – To everyone in southern Montgomery County and the Lake Houston Area: please consider signing the petition discussed below concerning the proposed Scarborough Development. It may help preserve vital floodplains in your area, thereby reducing your flood risk.
Background on Proposed Development
A Dallas-based developer named Scarborough has purchased 5,300+ acres of land at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork and Spring Creek. Hydrologists say that developing this land would be like aiming a fire hose at the Humble/Kingwood area. Backwater effects could also increase flood risk for Montgomery County residents.
Harris County and City of Houston have already unanimously passed resolutions opposing development of this flood-prone land. However, the Texas General Land Office and School Land Board have reportedly pledged $140 million to help develop it.
Petition to Stop Government Secrecy Surrounding the Plan
Unfortunately, the GLO and Attorney General Paxton’s office are concealing details of how the state is spending your tax dollars to flood you.
This petition on change.org (https://c.org/77yd6YRMZ8) will help convey your concerns to Montgomery County and State leaders.
Please forward this link to everyone you know in the area and anyone concerned about open, transparent government.
Also, please talk this issue up at community events. The poster below summarizes key points.
Here’s the area purchased by Scarborough. See area outlined in red below.
Cypress Creek, Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork all converge here. Flood heights could reach 18 to 25 feet above dry land in this area.
Here are FEMA’s CURRENT effective floodplains and floodways.
However, keep in mind that that map is in the process of being replaced. New maps show even more of the property in more dangerous flood zones.
Please Help: Sign Petition Now
By signing this petition, you are advocating for responsible development that prioritizes the welfare of our community in Spring, TX and the surrounding areas of Kingwood, Humble and the Lake Houston area by preserving this land and keeping it as a green space.
Please help prevent a potentially disastrous project and ensure a more secure future for us all. Please sign this petition to make a stand against the Scarborough Lane Development. Now! It will only take a minute.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2026
3164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Surprising Impacts of Depopulation on Flood Control
4/27/2026 – I recently read Bill King’s fascinating new book, Depopulation: Our New Demographics Reality. The demographic trends he discusses have huge implications for flooding and flood control.
It may seem insane to talk about depopulation in most places. The world has grown from 1 to 8 billion people in the last two centuries. And it may seem even more insane in a region like Houston.
“We’ve built our entire world—our economies, cities, institutions, and expectations—on the assumption that growth never ends,” says King. “In 63 countries, home to 28 percent of the world’s people, populations are shrinking right now. China’s population is collapsing. Europe is aging into irrelevance. Global fertility has plummeted to barely above replacement level—and it’s still falling.” He continues…
Suspend Disbelief Momentarily
So, let’s suspend disbelief for a few minutes and discuss what the implications of shrinking population growth could be for flood control – both negative and positive.
Shrinking population growth would change hydrologic, financial, and planning assumptions behind flood control. The impacts would be seen over time in:
Slower Population Growth Would Slow Increases in Runoff
Population growth typically increases flooding risk because it increases impervious cover (roofs, streets, parking lots). Impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and increase peak discharge.
If growth slows, so would peak discharges. Flood infrastructure may end up over-sized if development slows enough. People in danger of flooding may consider that good news. It lowers their risk and gives them more time to implement solutions.
Depopulation could make it easier for flood infrastructure to keep up with development. Agencies could shift from reactive to preventive flood management. Infrastructure projects could catch up with development. However, it’s not all good news.
Increasing Financial Pressure
On the other hand, slower population growth would make it more difficult to fund large, capital-intensive flood-mitigation projects.
We usually fund such projects through some combination of property taxes, impact fees and/or bond programs. When property taxes grow more slowly, impact fees decline sharply, and developer-built detention capacity decreases, flood control agencies may struggle. This is reportedly a common problem in shrinking or no-growth cities.
At the same time, long-term infrastructure liabilities grow. When population stagnates or shrinks, as it did in Rust Belt Cities for decades, so does the tax base. But maintenance costs remain, increasing the per-capita infrastructure burden. Fewer people must support aging drainage systems.
Land Conservation Becomes Easier
On the positive side again, slower growth increases opportunities for floodplain preservation. With less pressure to build subdivisions in floodplains and over wetlands, there’s more room for detention space and green infrastructure. This can dramatically reduce downstream flood peaks.
Preservation is already much more cost-effective than flood mitigation. In a low-demand, cost-constrained environment, preservation becomes even more financially attractive.
Sediment and Channel Impacts Decline
Another potential positive. Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve researched hundreds of articles showing how development drives:
Slower growth typically means:
This could potentially reduce flooding impacts and dredging requirements downstream.
Change in Planning Horizons
Planners usually design flood infrastructure for a service life of 50 to 100 years. If population growth slows, that infrastructure may appear overbuilt initially, but the extra capacity could support the surrounding population over a longer period.
Planning Assumptions May Become Obsolete
Many flood models reportedly assume steady population and urban growth. If demographic reality changes, agencies may need to update/debate:
These will likely become hotly contested public debates fueled by shrinking demand for the services of contractors and homebuilders eager to maintain their profitability. Competition will become cutthroat in shrinking industries. And pressure on legislators and regulators to “cut us some slack” may become irresistible.
If regional population declines, companies will struggle to survive by offering higher quality. This could continue to fuel population growth in suburban submarkets. We saw this in northern rust-belt cities such as Detroit and Cleveland during the last century. Consumers will always look for better quality, especially as the aging infrastructure in urban cores deteriorates.
Strategic Opportunities
With less development pressure, governments can shift from parcel-level detention toward regional systems, such as:
Hydrologists tell me these are usually more effective and more economical than small, distributed detention ponds.
Conclusion
While shrinking or slower population growth could generally reduce future flood-risk, it will also reduce funding capacity for mitigation.
Shrinking population should reduce growth of impervious cover, runoff, sedimentation, and revenue. But it will also increase the maintenance burden per capita.
The net result will depend on whether the hydrologic benefits of slower development outweigh the fiscal constraints on flood-mitigation investment.
Changes will not happen overnight. Developers will keep building because they believe buyers will trade up from older housing.
In other cities, it has taken 20-30 years for reality to catch up after population decline begins. During that time, superior new housing will capture demand from older neighborhoods. I just pray the new housing is not in risky, flood-prone areas.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/27/26 with help from Bill King, Several Hydrologists, and ChatGPT
3163 Days since Harvey