8/30/26 update at 8 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 70 percent. Tropical storm watches and warning could be posted tonight or tomorrow morning. So monitor weather closely.
Black line is average of model tracks.
8/30/26 update at 3 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 50 percent. The system has become more organized and development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night.
8/30/26 at 11 am – A weak surface low pressure system now south of Louisiana is heading toward Houston. It should arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. National Hurricane Center puts the chances for tropical development at 30 percent – up from 10 percent yesterday morning.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor this system and forecasts
Base image by NHC. Red arrow superimposed. It represents direction of travel.
Early morning visible satellite images (see above) show a weak and broad surface low pressure systems. It has drifted to the southwest and is now located over the open Gulf waters southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, deep convection has developed and 97L appears slightly more organized than yesterday. However, ships, buoys and oil platforms over the area report that surface pressures remain relatively high (1015-1016mb).
Area of Investigation Designated as Invest 97L
The area of investigation has been designated Invest 97L. It should move slowly toward the west or WNW over the next 24 hours according to numerous models.
By 48 hours (Tuesday) 97L will approach the coast between Galveston Bay and Lake Charles. It will then continue toward the WNW inland over southeast Texas by mid week.
Models show only modest development with 97L. Wind shear in the northern Gulf has fallen into the 5-10 knot range. And water surface temperatures are in the upper 80s., So, there is some potential for more development than the models suggest.
“It is possible that a tropical system could be approaching the upper Texas coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
“Regardless of additional development, a surge a tropical moisture looks likely across the upper TX and southwest LA coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall,” said Lindner.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and check weather forecasts daily.
Chances of tropical formation for a second area now located near the windward islands have also increased overnight. However, that poses no immediate threat to the Texas Coast.
8/29/26 at 11am and updated at 9pm – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an outlook this morning that highlights two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development. One in the Gulf could potentially reach the Houston area. However, NHC gives both areas a low chance of formation in the next seven days.
See more details below.
Northeastern/North Central Gulf
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
The system will move west to west-northwest along the northern Gulf coast into early next week.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. NHC gives it a 0 percent chance of formation in the next two cays. This morning NHC put the chance of development in seven days at 10 percent. But they increased it to 20 percent before the end of the day – a number still considered low.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that morning radar from New Orleans and Mobile showed the low roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, FL. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature is disorganized.
Surface pressures have fallen some in the last 24 hours, but the drop has not been significant, according to Lindner.
Overall motion is slow to the west or southwest. Strong westerly wind shear located along the US Gulf coast will discourage development. But some models suggest a 20 percent chance.
Remnants of Dolly East of Leeward Islands
Several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. It could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days. is currently 10 percent.
Early morning visible images do not indicate any sort of closed, low-level circulation and the wave is approaching strong, upper-level, westerly wind shear. If any formation takes place, it will likely happen late next week or over the Labor Day weekend.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/26
3287 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/NHC-Outlook-92926.png?fit=858%2C644&ssl=1644858adminadmin2026-08-29 12:18:212026-08-29 22:11:44NHC Monitoring Two Areas in Atlantic for Tropical Development
8/28/26 – Days after TXDoT contractors were caught on camera depositing fill dirt in the Lake Houston floodplain near FM1960, they started removing it. Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger personally visited the site on 8/22/26 and stopped the illegal operation.
The contractors took dirt excavated from an FM2100 detention basin outside of any known floodplain. Then they deposited it inside the floodway and floodplain of Lake Houston at a mobil home park east of the lake on the south side of 1960. Such fill reduces the room for floodwater storage and increases flood risk for other property owners.
City regulations passed in 2018 after Hurricane Harvey prohibit such operations. See Ord. No. 2018-258, Sections 19-34 and 19-43.
Removal Operation Not Yet Complete
Neighbors noticed unusual activity at the fill site starting around after 7pm on 8/27/26. A large excavator started putting the illegal fill into dump trucks. The trucks then hauled it somewhere else, presumably out of a floodplain. The crews reportedly worked under lights until about 5:30am today and returned around 4pm this afternoon.
Photo taken on 8/27/26 around 8pm by neighbor who wishes to remain anonymous.Same place and time.Taken around 4PM on 8/28/26.
Neighbors say that last night’s work did not remove all of the illegal fill and they’re happy to see the removal operation continuing.
However, that silt fence still doesn’t reach the ground and a thunderstorm is moving through the area as I write this.
Flickinger stated earlier that the owner would likely be forced to relocate the fill and pay a fine. At this hour, it’s not clear how much the fine was or where the fill is being relocated.
Status of Similar Case Near 59 Bridge
Last year, I caught on camera a separate floodplain-fill operation at 21915 Savelle Road near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork just west of the US59 Bridge. That case was much larger and is still bogged down in legal action.
According to Dustin Hodges, Flickinger’s Chief of Staff, City of Houston Legal and Houston Police Department (HPD) Environmental are reviewing that case right now.
State and Federal authorities have also become involved:
Houston Public Works Floodplain Management Office (FMO) alerted Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for stormwater quality violations. However, the City has not yet heard back from TCEQ regarding any actions taken.
FMO also alerted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Galveston office about the violation of illegal fill in their navigable waterways. USACE advised the City that they do not provide updates regarding investigation status.
FMO has asked for guidance from the City’s legal and HPD teams before taking additional actions.
The last time I checked on the Savelle site in late May, I had not noticed any fill being hauled away.
How to Report Floodplain Fill Operations
If you see someone dumping fill in a floodplain or floodway:
If so, send the location, photos and FEMA flood map to the appropriate authority.
Understand that regulations may vary by jurisdiction. The appropriate authority may also vary by jurisdiction. It could be the county engineer, city engineer, county commissioner, city council member, flood control district, TCEQ, or USACE.
When in doubt, contact me and I will help you figure it out.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/26
3286 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/PXL_20260828_004410839.jpg?fit=2048%2C1542&ssl=115422048adminadmin2026-08-28 16:39:362026-08-28 17:01:13TXDoT Contractors Removing Huffman Floodplain Fill
Potential Tropical Threat Heading Toward Houston
8/30/26 update at 8 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 70 percent. Tropical storm watches and warning could be posted tonight or tomorrow morning. So monitor weather closely.
8/30/26 update at 3 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 50 percent. The system has become more organized and development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night.
8/30/26 at 11 am – A weak surface low pressure system now south of Louisiana is heading toward Houston. It should arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. National Hurricane Center puts the chances for tropical development at 30 percent – up from 10 percent yesterday morning.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor this system and forecasts
Early morning visible satellite images (see above) show a weak and broad surface low pressure systems. It has drifted to the southwest and is now located over the open Gulf waters southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, deep convection has developed and 97L appears slightly more organized than yesterday. However, ships, buoys and oil platforms over the area report that surface pressures remain relatively high (1015-1016mb).
Area of Investigation Designated as Invest 97L
The area of investigation has been designated Invest 97L. It should move slowly toward the west or WNW over the next 24 hours according to numerous models.
By 48 hours (Tuesday) 97L will approach the coast between Galveston Bay and Lake Charles. It will then continue toward the WNW inland over southeast Texas by mid week.
Models show only modest development with 97L. Wind shear in the northern Gulf has fallen into the 5-10 knot range. And water surface temperatures are in the upper 80s., So, there is some potential for more development than the models suggest.
“Regardless of additional development, a surge a tropical moisture looks likely across the upper TX and southwest LA coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall,” said Lindner.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and check weather forecasts daily.
Chances of tropical formation for a second area now located near the windward islands have also increased overnight. However, that poses no immediate threat to the Texas Coast.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/30/26
3288 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Monitoring Two Areas in Atlantic for Tropical Development
8/29/26 at 11am and updated at 9pm – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an outlook this morning that highlights two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development. One in the Gulf could potentially reach the Houston area. However, NHC gives both areas a low chance of formation in the next seven days.
See more details below.
Northeastern/North Central Gulf
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
The system will move west to west-northwest along the northern Gulf coast into early next week.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. NHC gives it a 0 percent chance of formation in the next two cays. This morning NHC put the chance of development in seven days at 10 percent. But they increased it to 20 percent before the end of the day – a number still considered low.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that morning radar from New Orleans and Mobile showed the low roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, FL. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature is disorganized.
Surface pressures have fallen some in the last 24 hours, but the drop has not been significant, according to Lindner.
Overall motion is slow to the west or southwest. Strong westerly wind shear located along the US Gulf coast will discourage development. But some models suggest a 20 percent chance.
Remnants of Dolly East of Leeward Islands
Several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. It could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days. is currently 10 percent.
Early morning visible images do not indicate any sort of closed, low-level circulation and the wave is approaching strong, upper-level, westerly wind shear. If any formation takes place, it will likely happen late next week or over the Labor Day weekend.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/26
3287 Days since Hurricane Harvey
TXDoT Contractors Removing Huffman Floodplain Fill
8/28/26 – Days after TXDoT contractors were caught on camera depositing fill dirt in the Lake Houston floodplain near FM1960, they started removing it. Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger personally visited the site on 8/22/26 and stopped the illegal operation.
The contractors took dirt excavated from an FM2100 detention basin outside of any known floodplain. Then they deposited it inside the floodway and floodplain of Lake Houston at a mobil home park east of the lake on the south side of 1960. Such fill reduces the room for floodwater storage and increases flood risk for other property owners.
City regulations passed in 2018 after Hurricane Harvey prohibit such operations. See Ord. No. 2018-258, Sections 19-34 and 19-43.
Removal Operation Not Yet Complete
Neighbors noticed unusual activity at the fill site starting around after 7pm on 8/27/26. A large excavator started putting the illegal fill into dump trucks. The trucks then hauled it somewhere else, presumably out of a floodplain. The crews reportedly worked under lights until about 5:30am today and returned around 4pm this afternoon.
Neighbors say that last night’s work did not remove all of the illegal fill and they’re happy to see the removal operation continuing.
However, that silt fence still doesn’t reach the ground and a thunderstorm is moving through the area as I write this.
Flickinger stated earlier that the owner would likely be forced to relocate the fill and pay a fine. At this hour, it’s not clear how much the fine was or where the fill is being relocated.
Status of Similar Case Near 59 Bridge
Last year, I caught on camera a separate floodplain-fill operation at 21915 Savelle Road near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork just west of the US59 Bridge. That case was much larger and is still bogged down in legal action.
According to Dustin Hodges, Flickinger’s Chief of Staff, City of Houston Legal and Houston Police Department (HPD) Environmental are reviewing that case right now.
State and Federal authorities have also become involved:
The last time I checked on the Savelle site in late May, I had not noticed any fill being hauled away.
How to Report Floodplain Fill Operations
If you see someone dumping fill in a floodplain or floodway:
Understand that regulations may vary by jurisdiction. The appropriate authority may also vary by jurisdiction. It could be the county engineer, city engineer, county commissioner, city council member, flood control district, TCEQ, or USACE.
When in doubt, contact me and I will help you figure it out.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/26
3286 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.