Severe Weather Threats This Week
4/29/26 – The National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston Office has issued severe weather outlooks and excessive rainfall forecasts for Wednesday night 4/29/26 and Friday 5/1/2026. Thursday 4/30 2026 also has a chance of flash flooding.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect when.
Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Possibly Severe This Evening
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A period of active weather will begin today over the region and linger into late Friday. A frontal boundary is currently approaching SE TX from the north. Ahead of this boundary a moist and unstable air mass is in place. With daytime heating, instability will increase through the day.”
“Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to become severe. Large hail appears to be the primary threat although damaging winds are possible also,” says Lindner. He also says that tornados are possible. “The main threat for severe weather will be generally north of I-10 in the evening hours. Storms will gradually weaken toward the southeast into the mid to late evening.”
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 out of 5 severe threat for this afternoon and evening generally north of I-10 and level 1 out of 5 south of I-10. See below.
Although NWS believes the chances of rainfall for the Lake Houston Area are about 30% this evening, rainfall accumulations could be excessive in areas that receive rain – from 1″ to 3″ per hour.
Frontal Boundary Expected to Stall on Thursday
Lindner says, “The frontal boundary will stall between the coast and I-10 with active southwest flow aloft bringing disturbances across the area on Thursday.”
Daytime heating will once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially north of I-10. The severe threat is lower on Thursday with much of the region in the “slightly cooler and more stable air.” However, there will be the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Much of the northwest half of the area is outlooked in a Level 1 out of 4 threat for flash flooding.
100% Chance of Heavy Rain on Friday
NWS forecasts a 100% chance of rain for Friday in the Lake Houston Area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper level storm system will progress eastward over Texas. Additionally, a strong cold front will arrive from the north during the day.
Lindner predicts “… heavy rainfall with potentially training thunderstorms along slow moving boundaries within a very moist air mass.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Level 2 out 4 flash flood threat. With grounds becoming primed over the next 24-48 hours, additional heavy rainfall on Friday could yield more significant run-off.
Much of the severe weather threat will depend on where a surface low forms. For now, the NWS Storm Prediction Center sees Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms – generally south of I-10.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Friday afternoon and evening with falling temperatures. Compared to the recent warm temps, lows will fall into the 50’s and even 40’s over the weekend. Highs should reach the 60’s and 70’s with much lower humidity and gusty north winds.
Gale Conditions Possible Along Coast on Saturday
Strong northerly winds may result in gale conditions for portions of the coastal waters on Saturday.
It’s Getting to Be That Time of Year
May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston. And here comes the rain. Right on time. Looking back to 1991, only June and October have averaged more rainfall.
In that regard, let’s not forget the May storms we had in 2024. They were followed quickly by the derecho later that month. That was definitely a month for the scrapbooks!
Hurricane Season Around the Corner
Hurricane season starts June 1 – just a month away. It’s time to finish those roof repairs, clean out the gutters, trim those dead limbs off the tree in your yard, and stock up on supplies.
And don’t forget to bookmark these sites:
- The National Hurricane Center has daily updates on hurricane activity and a wide variety of educational materials for people new to the area and students.
- The Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service offers updated forecasts throughout the day.
- Harris County Flood Warning System monitors rainfall and stream gages throughout the region, and offers a flood alert service. Sign up for it!
The links page of this website also offers links to dozens of other helpful websites. Before hurricane season starts, make sure to check out these preparedness guides.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/26
3165 Days since Hurricane Harvey
