5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.
Weather Pattern
A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.
Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”
The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.
Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.
Rainfall Predictions
Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.
These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.
Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.
Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.
At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.
For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.
Severe Threat
A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/day3prob_1930.png?fit=1630%2C1110&ssl=111101630adminadmin2026-05-17 17:00:562026-05-17 17:05:25Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week
5/15/2026 – At their 5/14/2026 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed the job performance of the Flood Control District Executive Director, Tina Petersen, Ph.D. After coming out of executive session, Commissioners announced that they were taking “no action” re: Dr. Petersen.
Petersen has come under increasing pressure to produce results on $322 million worth of projects funded by HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). They have a looming February 28, 2027 deadline. And Petersen’s own data shows many of the projects will miss that deadline, thus jeopardizing federal funding.
Dr. Petersen under pressure as she addressed commissioners
Hidalgo Putting Petersen’s Performance Back on Agenda
Despite taking “no action” on Petersen this week, in a lunch-time press conference yesterday, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, said she was putting Petersen’s performance back on the agenda for the June Commissioner’s Court meeting.
Addressing schedule slippage on CDBG-DR projects with tight deadlines, Hidalgo said, “The best I can do is place my trust in somebody else that might bring a different kind of energy, a sense of urgency and a new relationship with our partners at other levels of government.”
Hidalgo referred to Petersen’s “unforced errors” and added, “Every day that passes is a day in which perhaps we’re not working as quickly as we could be working.”
When asked about the probability of meeting the General Land Office deadline of February 28, 2027, Hidalgo replied,
“Given where we are and given the reports we have so far, I don’t see how they [the DR projects] will be done on time.”
Lina Hidalgo
Referring to other leaders at the federal and state levels who will have to make a decision about granting an extension, Hidalgo said, “If they’re anything like me, they will want to see a change [in leadership] as well. So that’s where I’m coming from.”
“I don’t think she’s the right person to continue to see this through. I don’t think that gives us the best shot at inspiring the confidence that the other levels of government will need to bet on Harris County,” Hidalgo added.
Ramsey Remains “Extremely Concerned”
Later, back in the meeting, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey announced that he “remains concerned” about whether Petersen is achieving results and being transparent.
“There have been some delays internally in terms of when we get projects out, when we get projects bid. That’s very clear and we can go through a lot of detail related to that,” said Ramsey. “I think the GLO’s concerned that we’re not doing our job. So that concerns me. I get concerned when they tell me that they’re having trouble getting data.”
Ramsey expressed concerns about how transparent HCFCD was being regarding the status of projects. In referring to a detailed report that commissioners demanded from Petersen in the previous meeting, he said to her, “I shouldn’t have had to come to Commissioner’s Court to get support from this court to ask you to provide information to the GLO.” Then he added, “Every bit of data that we requested … was specifically needed by the GLO and they were not getting it.”
Speaking to Petersen, he said, “I’m not going to take for granted what you’re telling me. It’ll be verified by Administrator Carter [the country administrator] in great detail in the coming days.”
Ramsey concluded, “Clearly, this is urgent. I’m glad you were able to do a report that we asked for, but I remain extremely concerned.”
Petersen’s Presentation Focused Largely on Need for Deadline Extension
At the end of the meeting, Petersen appeared before commissioners, ostensibly to update them on the status of the CDBG projects. She did produce a series of one-page information sheets that show a timeline for each CDBG-DR project.
However, she did not go into details on those. Nor did she explain any “unforced errors” as Hidalgo called them.
Instead, she focused largely on how frequently she had requested deadline extensions. In her half hour at the podium, Petersen mentioned a need for deadline extensions or more time approximately 30 times.
I felt she was claiming that there was never enough time to do these jobs. What do you feel? Here are:
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Tina-Petersen-at-26.05.14-CC-Meeting.jpg?fit=1100%2C621&ssl=16211100adminadmin2026-05-15 23:49:122026-05-16 10:21:53HCFCD Director Tina Petersen Keeps Her Job … For Now
5/14/26 – Homes in floodplains typically sell at discounts compared to safer homes on higher ground. Therefore, they tend to attract a higher proportion of first-time home buyers. Why? For the vast majority of first-time buyers, affordability drives buying decisions more than other considerations, especially since flood risk is hard to understand.
Let’s look at some recent studies and start with the most affordable markets for first-time buyers.
Zillow Rankings of Market Affordability
In February 2026, a Zillow study identified large U.S. metro areas where buying a home is an affordable alternative to renting.
The study ranked the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on their proportions of:
Income spent on rent (the rent burden: less spent means greater ability to save for down payment)
Affordable listings for median-income households (more supply drives down prices)
Affordable listings per 100 rental households (more choices mean greater bargaining power)
Share of population between 29 and 43 (prime ages for first-time buyers).
In Houston, first-time homebuyers spend only 23% of their income on rent. And 40% of the City’s housing stock is within the price range of median-income households. So, Houston is one of the most affordable markets for first-time homebuyers.
Flooding Connection?
But are first-time homebuyers really more likely to buy homes in floodplains?” Research is illuminating. Short answer – “Yes. But not always.” It depends on where you look.
Inland vs. Coastal Floodplains
Less wealthy first-time buyers are often disproportionately represented in inland flood-prone areas. Why? Land is cheaper there and affordability drives decision making.
However, the pattern differs in coastal flood zones. Flooded coastal homes still command premiums because of their views, proximity to beaches, water access and recreational value.
“Approved mortgage applicants in inland flood zones have lower credit scores and income than approved mortgage applicants for properties in minimal flood risk areas,” says the report.
Freddie Mac studied Houston and Harris County home prices before and after Harvey. Freddie Mac found that floodplain properties sell at a discount and that, after flooding, that discount doubled.
Lower prices naturally attract more cost-sensitive buyers, including many first-time buyers.
Other studies suggest younger buyers and buyers with less flood experience DO NOT give as much weight to flood risk as older, more experienced buyers. One 2025 housing-market study found younger buyers in flood-prone regions often did not demand meaningful price discounts for risk exposure, while older buyers did.
Compared to safer homes on higher ground, inland floodplains typically feature:
Cheaper land
Newer suburban growth
Fringe development areas
Weaker zoning or drainage standards
Higher proportions of entry-level housing.
This pattern is especially visible around rapidly growing metro areas such as Houston. Here, developable non-floodplain land near employment centers is increasingly scarce and expensive.
A recent Houston Chronicle investigation found 65,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the Houston region since Harvey, partly because flood-prone land has higher profit margins.
Why First-time Buyers are Particularly Vulnerable
Several factors converge in the “first-time” market:
Mortgage qualification focuses on payment affordability more than flood-risk; lenders simply require flood insurance.
There is also evidence that many buyers misunderstand flood insurance. Surveys show a substantial share of Americans incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage.
In Houston Region
These dynamics can become especially pronounced because:
Floodplain land is often among the last large tracts available near growth corridors
Drainage rules vary by jurisdiction; some keep standards low to attract growth
First-time buyers may not have experienced prior floods
Many buyers speak English as a second language, as in Colony Ridge
That creates a situation where entry-level subdivisions may be marketed as “compliant” with current regulations while still carrying substantial, unrecognized flood risk.
A Personal Testament
I once fell into that exact trap when I was much younger. I bought a house on Spring Creek in the Dallas area. The developer promised me, “You’re two feet above the 100-year floodplain.” That sounded safe. Plus, the view was gorgeous and the bank was willing to loan us the money. We bought it.
But within three years, we flooded. I worked with the City Engineer and Army Corps to re-evaluate flooding on the creek. They found that because of upstream development in those three years, we went from two feetabove the 100-year floodplain to 10 feetbelow it.
We sold the house at a $60,000 loss and moved on. In today’s dollars, that would equal $200,000.
Somewhere along the way, I learned that “Built to code” does not necessarily mean “low flood risk.” In many jurisdictions, it simply means the structure meets the minimum regulatory elevation or mitigation standard tied to existing maps and assumptions which could be decades old.
Most first time buyers don’t realize that flood risk can change faster than flood maps. Much faster. They also don’t realize that the chances of getting flooded in a 100-year floodplain during the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is 26% – a more than one in four chance.
Buyers beware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/26
3180 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Freddie-Mac-Finding.png?fit=1382%2C1030&ssl=110301382adminadmin2026-05-14 15:45:232026-05-14 15:50:06Floodplains and Affordability for First-Time Homebuyers
Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week
5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.
Weather Pattern
A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.
Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”
The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.
Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.
Rainfall Predictions
Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.
These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.
Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.
Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.
At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.
For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.
Severe Threat
A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/2026
3183 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Director Tina Petersen Keeps Her Job … For Now
5/15/2026 – At their 5/14/2026 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed the job performance of the Flood Control District Executive Director, Tina Petersen, Ph.D. After coming out of executive session, Commissioners announced that they were taking “no action” re: Dr. Petersen.
Petersen has come under increasing pressure to produce results on $322 million worth of projects funded by HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). They have a looming February 28, 2027 deadline. And Petersen’s own data shows many of the projects will miss that deadline, thus jeopardizing federal funding.
Hidalgo Putting Petersen’s Performance Back on Agenda
Despite taking “no action” on Petersen this week, in a lunch-time press conference yesterday, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, said she was putting Petersen’s performance back on the agenda for the June Commissioner’s Court meeting.
Here is a transcript of the Petersen portion of Hidalgo’s press conference.
Addressing schedule slippage on CDBG-DR projects with tight deadlines, Hidalgo said, “The best I can do is place my trust in somebody else that might bring a different kind of energy, a sense of urgency and a new relationship with our partners at other levels of government.”
Hidalgo referred to Petersen’s “unforced errors” and added, “Every day that passes is a day in which perhaps we’re not working as quickly as we could be working.”
When asked about the probability of meeting the General Land Office deadline of February 28, 2027, Hidalgo replied,
Referring to other leaders at the federal and state levels who will have to make a decision about granting an extension, Hidalgo said, “If they’re anything like me, they will want to see a change [in leadership] as well. So that’s where I’m coming from.”
“I don’t think she’s the right person to continue to see this through. I don’t think that gives us the best shot at inspiring the confidence that the other levels of government will need to bet on Harris County,” Hidalgo added.
Ramsey Remains “Extremely Concerned”
Later, back in the meeting, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey announced that he “remains concerned” about whether Petersen is achieving results and being transparent.
“There have been some delays internally in terms of when we get projects out, when we get projects bid. That’s very clear and we can go through a lot of detail related to that,” said Ramsey. “I think the GLO’s concerned that we’re not doing our job. So that concerns me. I get concerned when they tell me that they’re having trouble getting data.”
Ramsey expressed concerns about how transparent HCFCD was being regarding the status of projects. In referring to a detailed report that commissioners demanded from Petersen in the previous meeting, he said to her, “I shouldn’t have had to come to Commissioner’s Court to get support from this court to ask you to provide information to the GLO.” Then he added, “Every bit of data that we requested … was specifically needed by the GLO and they were not getting it.”
Speaking to Petersen, he said, “I’m not going to take for granted what you’re telling me. It’ll be verified by Administrator Carter [the country administrator] in great detail in the coming days.”
Ramsey concluded, “Clearly, this is urgent. I’m glad you were able to do a report that we asked for, but I remain extremely concerned.”
Petersen’s Presentation Focused Largely on Need for Deadline Extension
At the end of the meeting, Petersen appeared before commissioners, ostensibly to update them on the status of the CDBG projects. She did produce a series of one-page information sheets that show a timeline for each CDBG-DR project.
However, she did not go into details on those. Nor did she explain any “unforced errors” as Hidalgo called them.
Instead, she focused largely on how frequently she had requested deadline extensions. In her half hour at the podium, Petersen mentioned a need for deadline extensions or more time approximately 30 times.
I felt she was claiming that there was never enough time to do these jobs. What do you feel? Here are:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/15/26
3181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Floodplains and Affordability for First-Time Homebuyers
5/14/26 – Homes in floodplains typically sell at discounts compared to safer homes on higher ground. Therefore, they tend to attract a higher proportion of first-time home buyers. Why? For the vast majority of first-time buyers, affordability drives buying decisions more than other considerations, especially since flood risk is hard to understand.
Let’s look at some recent studies and start with the most affordable markets for first-time buyers.
Zillow Rankings of Market Affordability
In February 2026, a Zillow study identified large U.S. metro areas where buying a home is an affordable alternative to renting.
The study ranked the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on their proportions of:
Based on those criteria…
In Houston, first-time homebuyers spend only 23% of their income on rent. And 40% of the City’s housing stock is within the price range of median-income households. So, Houston is one of the most affordable markets for first-time homebuyers.
Flooding Connection?
But are first-time homebuyers really more likely to buy homes in floodplains?” Research is illuminating. Short answer – “Yes. But not always.” It depends on where you look.
Inland vs. Coastal Floodplains
Less wealthy first-time buyers are often disproportionately represented in inland flood-prone areas. Why? Land is cheaper there and affordability drives decision making.
However, the pattern differs in coastal flood zones. Flooded coastal homes still command premiums because of their views, proximity to beaches, water access and recreational value.
CFPB and Freddie Mac Research
A 2025 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report found that mortgage applicants in inland FEMA flood zones generally had:
“Approved mortgage applicants in inland flood zones have lower credit scores and income than approved mortgage applicants for properties in minimal flood risk areas,” says the report.
Freddie Mac studied Houston and Harris County home prices before and after Harvey. Freddie Mac found that floodplain properties sell at a discount and that, after flooding, that discount doubled.
Lower prices naturally attract more cost-sensitive buyers, including many first-time buyers.
Other studies suggest younger buyers and buyers with less flood experience DO NOT give as much weight to flood risk as older, more experienced buyers. One 2025 housing-market study found younger buyers in flood-prone regions often did not demand meaningful price discounts for risk exposure, while older buyers did.
Compared to safer homes on higher ground, inland floodplains typically feature:
This pattern is especially visible around rapidly growing metro areas such as Houston. Here, developable non-floodplain land near employment centers is increasingly scarce and expensive.
A recent Houston Chronicle investigation found 65,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the Houston region since Harvey, partly because flood-prone land has higher profit margins.
Why First-time Buyers are Particularly Vulnerable
Several factors converge in the “first-time” market:
There is also evidence that many buyers misunderstand flood insurance. Surveys show a substantial share of Americans incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage.
In Houston Region
These dynamics can become especially pronounced because:
That creates a situation where entry-level subdivisions may be marketed as “compliant” with current regulations while still carrying substantial, unrecognized flood risk.
A Personal Testament
I once fell into that exact trap when I was much younger. I bought a house on Spring Creek in the Dallas area. The developer promised me, “You’re two feet above the 100-year floodplain.” That sounded safe. Plus, the view was gorgeous and the bank was willing to loan us the money. We bought it.
But within three years, we flooded. I worked with the City Engineer and Army Corps to re-evaluate flooding on the creek. They found that because of upstream development in those three years, we went from two feet above the 100-year floodplain to 10 feet below it.
We sold the house at a $60,000 loss and moved on. In today’s dollars, that would equal $200,000.
Somewhere along the way, I learned that “Built to code” does not necessarily mean “low flood risk.” In many jurisdictions, it simply means the structure meets the minimum regulatory elevation or mitigation standard tied to existing maps and assumptions which could be decades old.
Most first time buyers don’t realize that flood risk can change faster than flood maps. Much faster. They also don’t realize that the chances of getting flooded in a 100-year floodplain during the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is 26% – a more than one in four chance.
Buyers beware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/26
3180 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.