5/20/2026 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, heavy rainfall will continue this week. “Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals…much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday,” he said. “That’s on top of 1-3 inches that fell overnight. “Concern remains high for short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid-onset flash flooding.” As a result…
“Flash flood and river flood threats will be increasing with time.”
Jeff Lindner
National Weather Service expects total rainfall accumulations to reach 6-8 inches in the next week.
For more details, see below.
Active Weather Pattern Will Continue into Weekend
Earlier forecasts suggested a total of 3-5 inches in coming days. But that has increased. Most of Harris County received 2-3 inches in the last 24 hours alone. See below.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely, according to Lindner.
Latest rounds of storms moved off the coast this morning. Expect a mostly uneventful day with respect to any additional storms. However, this evening another strong disturbance will come out of west Texas and northern Mexico. It will likely produce another complex of thunderstorms. High resolution models suggest a line of storms will form over that part of Texas and move eastward tonight into Thursday morning.
Some models predict the complex of storms will hold together into southeast Texas early Thursday. But other suggest they will weaken before reaching here.
Generally, this activity looks progressive. It will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rainfall. Once it moves through, another break will be possible for much of Thursday. But that will depend on the morning complex of storms pushing through the region and stabilizing the air mass. If not, thunderstorms could develop with heating on Thursday. The NWS Weather Prediction Center shows a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for Thursday for the entire region.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. But confidence in the forecast is low beyond 36 hours. So monitor forecasts late Thursday into Friday morning for approaching disturbances.
Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing For Weekend
Models indicate more concentrated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur this weekend as a trough over the southwest shift slowly towards west Texas. It is unclear exactly how things will play out into the weekend, but it generally looks wet and the heavy rainfall threat will remain. Colorado State University predicts a heavy rainfall threat for both Saturday and Sunday.
Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals. Much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday. Concern remains for high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid onset flash flooding.
We will need to watch the entire period for any stalling storms or cell training that could quickly result in flash flooding.
Runoff/Flooding
With all the rounds of rainfall, grounds will saturate thoroughly. Run-off will increase into the weekend. A lot of water is going to fall over the next 5-7 days across the region. How quickly that happens will ultimately determine the threat for flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers.
“Rivers and creeks will rise with rounds of storms and may not be able to recede much before the next round – especially this weekend,” says Lindner. The end result: a slow steady rise in water levels.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will also cause more rapid rises on the more urban creeks and bayous. While these channels can effectively move large amounts of run-off in a short period of time, they can become overwhelmed with intense short-term rainfall rates.
Closely monitor all watersheds into the weekend for rises and any more defined flooding concerns. A good source for that in real-time is the Harris County Flood Warning System. Just remember to click on the Inundation button in the left column. You can also sign up for alerts.
Severe Weather Threat Low
Overall, the severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Overnight storms produced wind gusts of 45-55mph (56mph near Surfside Beach) and these complexes of storms tend to produce gusty winds along their leading edge. The severe threat is likely secondary to the increasing flood threat but will need to be monitored.
Lake Lowering
The Coastal Water Authority started lowering Lake Houston yesterday morning to create more storage for floodwater in the lake and reduce flood threats. As of 11:30 today, the lake was down from its normal level by almost a foot.
The SJRA dashboard shows they are not releasing any water from Lake Conroe but that lake is already down about a half foot. Normal is 201 feet.
Keep your eye on the sky and your ear to the weather radio. And with hurricane season officially starting in 11 days, now may be a good time to check the batteries in all your emergency equipment.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 1PM on Wed., May 20, 2026
3186 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Forecast-Precip.png?fit=870%2C662&ssl=1662870adminadmin2026-05-20 12:55:422026-05-20 13:24:28Flood Threats Increasing with Rainfall Predictions
5/19/26 – Contractors working on the Woodridge Village-Taylor Gully Project finally appeared yesterday and started working today. Construction on the site had been paused since November, 2023.
That’s when Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) cancelled an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand & Clay to apply for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the Texas General Land Office and US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This particular CDBG project falls in the Mitigation Category. That means, HCFCD and the contractors have until March 31, 2028 to finish it – about a year and ten months.
History of Project
All this comes seven years after Perry Homes cleared approximately 270 acres on its Woodridge Village property, and sloped the land toward Taylor Gully … without building the required detention basins. Then the flooding problems started. Taylor Gully flooded up to 600 homes twice in 2019, once on May 7 and once in September during Tropical Storm Imelda.
Harris County and City of Houston bought the property from Perry Homes in 2020. That let Sprint Sand & Clay start excavating a giant detention basin on Woodridge. They removed 156,478 cubic yards of sediment. That brought the total detention on the site up to Atlas-14 requirements, But per HUD requirements, HCFCD had to stop Sprint while it applied for a grant, which Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped secure.
However, work stopped before the basin was finished and it was never connected to the rest of the drainage on the site. See below.
Woodridge Village in November 2023 when E&R contract ended. Note storm sewer pipe scattered around excavation.
Sprint removed all that dirt for less than a thousand dollars. The picture above shows how the site looked the day Sprint left. They gave the current contractors a giant head start.
Site Clean Up Started Today
Today, after a hiatus of almost three years, a new contractor started by cleaning up the site. I photographed them breaking up the old storm sewer pipe unearthed by Sprint.
Woodridge Village on 5/19/2026. Note contractors breaking up storm sewers that Perry had installed near detention basin excavation.
I counted three pieces of construction equipment onsite today: a small bulldozer, an excavator that was breaking up the pipe. And a forklift that ferried pipe to the excavator.
Restart of construction on 5/19/2026
I didn’t see any other equipment on Woodridge or along Taylor Gully.
Looking upstream along Taylor Gully from West Lake Houston Parkway toward Rustic Elms and Woodridge.Looking downstream toward the end of Taylor Gully.
What Project Includes
On 10/6/25, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved approximately $42 million to construct Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements and a Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin.
On 3/26/26, the county purchasing agent approved a $29,387,654 bid from Bryce Construction & Design, LLC to finish constructing the Woodridge and Taylor Gully flood mitigation projects in Kingwood
The Woodridge portion of the project (above the county line) includes 421.6 acre feet of additional stormwater detention capacity (See Compartment 1 above).
Other planned improvements along Taylor Gully include:
13,118 feet of channel conveyance improvements
Placing a concrete channel along the base of it
Replacing the concrete culverts at Rustling Elms with an open-span bridge.
Altogether the plan should reduce the water surface elevation by up to 5 feet and help 24,000 thousand people who live near or commute through the area.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DJI_20260519142939_0131_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-05-19 17:37:092026-05-20 13:19:06Woodridge-Taylor Gully Construction Starts Again
5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.
Weather Pattern
A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.
Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”
The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.
Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.
Rainfall Predictions
Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.
These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.
Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.
Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.
At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.
For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.
Severe Threat
A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/day3prob_1930.png?fit=1630%2C1110&ssl=111101630adminadmin2026-05-17 17:00:562026-05-17 17:05:25Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week
Flood Threats Increasing with Rainfall Predictions
5/20/2026 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, heavy rainfall will continue this week. “Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals…much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday,” he said. “That’s on top of 1-3 inches that fell overnight. “Concern remains high for short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid-onset flash flooding.” As a result…
National Weather Service expects total rainfall accumulations to reach 6-8 inches in the next week.
For more details, see below.
Active Weather Pattern Will Continue into Weekend
Earlier forecasts suggested a total of 3-5 inches in coming days. But that has increased. Most of Harris County received 2-3 inches in the last 24 hours alone. See below.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely, according to Lindner.
Latest rounds of storms moved off the coast this morning. Expect a mostly uneventful day with respect to any additional storms. However, this evening another strong disturbance will come out of west Texas and northern Mexico. It will likely produce another complex of thunderstorms. High resolution models suggest a line of storms will form over that part of Texas and move eastward tonight into Thursday morning.
Some models predict the complex of storms will hold together into southeast Texas early Thursday. But other suggest they will weaken before reaching here.
Generally, this activity looks progressive. It will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rainfall. Once it moves through, another break will be possible for much of Thursday. But that will depend on the morning complex of storms pushing through the region and stabilizing the air mass. If not, thunderstorms could develop with heating on Thursday. The NWS Weather Prediction Center shows a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for Thursday for the entire region.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. But confidence in the forecast is low beyond 36 hours. So monitor forecasts late Thursday into Friday morning for approaching disturbances.
Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing For Weekend
Models indicate more concentrated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur this weekend as a trough over the southwest shift slowly towards west Texas. It is unclear exactly how things will play out into the weekend, but it generally looks wet and the heavy rainfall threat will remain. Colorado State University predicts a heavy rainfall threat for both Saturday and Sunday.
Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals. Much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday. Concern remains for high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid onset flash flooding.
We will need to watch the entire period for any stalling storms or cell training that could quickly result in flash flooding.
Runoff/Flooding
With all the rounds of rainfall, grounds will saturate thoroughly. Run-off will increase into the weekend. A lot of water is going to fall over the next 5-7 days across the region. How quickly that happens will ultimately determine the threat for flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers.
“Rivers and creeks will rise with rounds of storms and may not be able to recede much before the next round – especially this weekend,” says Lindner. The end result: a slow steady rise in water levels.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will also cause more rapid rises on the more urban creeks and bayous. While these channels can effectively move large amounts of run-off in a short period of time, they can become overwhelmed with intense short-term rainfall rates.
Closely monitor all watersheds into the weekend for rises and any more defined flooding concerns. A good source for that in real-time is the Harris County Flood Warning System. Just remember to click on the Inundation button in the left column. You can also sign up for alerts.
Severe Weather Threat Low
Overall, the severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Overnight storms produced wind gusts of 45-55mph (56mph near Surfside Beach) and these complexes of storms tend to produce gusty winds along their leading edge. The severe threat is likely secondary to the increasing flood threat but will need to be monitored.
Lake Lowering
The Coastal Water Authority started lowering Lake Houston yesterday morning to create more storage for floodwater in the lake and reduce flood threats. As of 11:30 today, the lake was down from its normal level by almost a foot.
The SJRA dashboard shows they are not releasing any water from Lake Conroe but that lake is already down about a half foot. Normal is 201 feet.
Keep your eye on the sky and your ear to the weather radio. And with hurricane season officially starting in 11 days, now may be a good time to check the batteries in all your emergency equipment.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 1PM on Wed., May 20, 2026
3186 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Woodridge-Taylor Gully Construction Starts Again
5/19/26 – Contractors working on the Woodridge Village-Taylor Gully Project finally appeared yesterday and started working today. Construction on the site had been paused since November, 2023.
That’s when Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) cancelled an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand & Clay to apply for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the Texas General Land Office and US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This particular CDBG project falls in the Mitigation Category. That means, HCFCD and the contractors have until March 31, 2028 to finish it – about a year and ten months.
History of Project
All this comes seven years after Perry Homes cleared approximately 270 acres on its Woodridge Village property, and sloped the land toward Taylor Gully … without building the required detention basins. Then the flooding problems started. Taylor Gully flooded up to 600 homes twice in 2019, once on May 7 and once in September during Tropical Storm Imelda.
Harris County and City of Houston bought the property from Perry Homes in 2020. That let Sprint Sand & Clay start excavating a giant detention basin on Woodridge. They removed 156,478 cubic yards of sediment. That brought the total detention on the site up to Atlas-14 requirements, But per HUD requirements, HCFCD had to stop Sprint while it applied for a grant, which Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped secure.
However, work stopped before the basin was finished and it was never connected to the rest of the drainage on the site. See below.
Sprint removed all that dirt for less than a thousand dollars. The picture above shows how the site looked the day Sprint left. They gave the current contractors a giant head start.
Site Clean Up Started Today
Today, after a hiatus of almost three years, a new contractor started by cleaning up the site. I photographed them breaking up the old storm sewer pipe unearthed by Sprint.
I counted three pieces of construction equipment onsite today: a small bulldozer, an excavator that was breaking up the pipe. And a forklift that ferried pipe to the excavator.
I didn’t see any other equipment on Woodridge or along Taylor Gully.
What Project Includes
On 10/6/25, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved approximately $42 million to construct Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements and a Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin.
On 3/26/26, the county purchasing agent approved a $29,387,654 bid from Bryce Construction & Design, LLC to finish constructing the Woodridge and Taylor Gully flood mitigation projects in Kingwood
Other planned improvements along Taylor Gully include:
Altogether the plan should reduce the water surface elevation by up to 5 feet and help 24,000 thousand people who live near or commute through the area.
For more information about the project, see this PowerPoint by HCFCD.
It’s great to see this project moving again.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2026
3185 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week
5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.
Weather Pattern
A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.
Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”
The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.
Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.
Rainfall Predictions
Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.
These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.
Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.
Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.
At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.
For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.
Severe Threat
A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/2026
3183 Days since Hurricane Harvey