8/29/26 at 11am and updated at 9pm – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an outlook this morning that highlights two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development. One in the Gulf could potentially reach the Houston area. However, NHC gives both areas a low chance of formation in the next seven days.
See more details below.
Northeastern/North Central Gulf
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
The system will move west to west-northwest along the northern Gulf coast into early next week.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. NHC gives it a 0 percent chance of formation in the next two cays. This morning NHC put the chance of development in seven days at 10 percent. But they increased it to 20 percent before the end of the day – a number still considered low.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that morning radar from New Orleans and Mobile showed the low roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, FL. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature is disorganized.
Surface pressures have fallen some in the last 24 hours, but the drop has not been significant, according to Lindner.
Overall motion is slow to the west or southwest. Strong westerly wind shear located along the US Gulf coast will discourage development. But some models suggest a 20 percent chance.
Remnants of Dolly East of Leeward Islands
Several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. It could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days. is currently 10 percent.
Early morning visible images do not indicate any sort of closed, low-level circulation and the wave is approaching strong, upper-level, westerly wind shear. If any formation takes place, it will likely happen late next week or over the Labor Day weekend.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/26
3287 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/NHC-Outlook-92926.png?fit=858%2C644&ssl=1644858adminadmin2026-08-29 12:18:212026-08-29 22:11:44NHC Monitoring Two Areas in Atlantic for Tropical Development
8/28/26 – Days after TXDoT contractors were caught on camera depositing fill dirt in the Lake Houston floodplain near FM1960, they started removing it. Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger personally visited the site on 8/22/26 and stopped the illegal operation.
The contractors took dirt excavated from an FM2100 detention basin outside of any known floodplain. Then they deposited it inside the floodway and floodplain of Lake Houston at a mobil home park east of the lake on the south side of 1960. Such fill reduces the room for floodwater storage and increases flood risk for other property owners.
City regulations passed in 2018 after Hurricane Harvey prohibit such operations. See Ord. No. 2018-258, Sections 19-34 and 19-43.
Removal Operation Not Yet Complete
Neighbors noticed unusual activity at the fill site starting around after 7pm on 8/27/26. A large excavator started putting the illegal fill into dump trucks. The trucks then hauled it somewhere else, presumably out of a floodplain. The crews reportedly worked under lights until about 5:30am today and returned around 4pm this afternoon.
Photo taken on 8/27/26 around 8pm by neighbor who wishes to remain anonymous.Same place and time.Taken around 4PM on 8/28/26.
Neighbors say that last night’s work did not remove all of the illegal fill and they’re happy to see the removal operation continuing.
However, that silt fence still doesn’t reach the ground and a thunderstorm is moving through the area as I write this.
Flickinger stated earlier that the owner would likely be forced to relocate the fill and pay a fine. At this hour, it’s not clear how much the fine was or where the fill is being relocated.
Status of Similar Case Near 59 Bridge
Last year, I caught on camera a separate floodplain-fill operation at 21915 Savelle Road near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork just west of the US59 Bridge. That case was much larger and is still bogged down in legal action.
According to Dustin Hodges, Flickinger’s Chief of Staff, City of Houston Legal and Houston Police Department (HPD) Environmental are reviewing that case right now.
State and Federal authorities have also become involved:
Houston Public Works Floodplain Management Office (FMO) alerted Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for stormwater quality violations. However, the City has not yet heard back from TCEQ regarding any actions taken.
FMO also alerted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Galveston office about the violation of illegal fill in their navigable waterways. USACE advised the City that they do not provide updates regarding investigation status.
FMO has asked for guidance from the City’s legal and HPD teams before taking additional actions.
The last time I checked on the Savelle site in late May, I had not noticed any fill being hauled away.
How to Report Floodplain Fill Operations
If you see someone dumping fill in a floodplain or floodway:
If so, send the location, photos and FEMA flood map to the appropriate authority.
Understand that regulations may vary by jurisdiction. The appropriate authority may also vary by jurisdiction. It could be the county engineer, city engineer, county commissioner, city council member, flood control district, TCEQ, or USACE.
When in doubt, contact me and I will help you figure it out.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/26
3286 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/PXL_20260828_004410839.jpg?fit=2048%2C1542&ssl=115422048adminadmin2026-08-28 16:39:362026-08-28 17:01:13TXDoT Contractors Removing Huffman Floodplain Fill
8/27/26 – This week marks nine years since Hurricane Harvey, the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the United States. It dropped 60.58 inches of rain in Nederland, Texas, just east of Houston. Harvey also caused an estimated $125 billion in damages, making it the second costliest storm in U.S. history after Katrina.
Estimated rainfall totals from Harvey across SE Texasshow Houston in the bulls eye.
According to the National Weather Service, only around 10 percent of the river forecast points in southeast Texas remained below flood stage during the event, and…
Approximately 46 percent of the river forecast points reached new record levels.
In the wake of all that destruction, the public demanded better flood protection and officials responded. Here is a list of some of the major efforts.
Harris County voters approved a $2.5 billion flood bond in 2018 and HCFCD found another $2.7 million in matching funds.
The Army Corps of Engineers and City of Houston dredged more than 4 million cubic yards of sediment from the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River.
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority started expanding Northpark Drive to create an all-weather evacuation route for 80,000 people in the Kingwood Area.
Army Corps, Texas General Land Office and Gulf Coast Protection District laid the foundation for the Coastal Texas Project.
The Army Corps completed its dredging program and the City extended it. However, sediment from sand mines upstream has once again reduced the conveyance of rivers, streams and channels.
At the start of this month, directors were finally sworn in for the Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District. And they are in the process of developing a business plan.
Harris County Engineering, which enforces floodplain regulations, is essentially in disarray, due to loss of personnel and high turnover. Some employees have reportedly resigned within weeks of joining the department. As a consequence, contractors are dumping fill in floodplains with impunity.
After achieving mixed results on getting surrounding counties to adopt minimum drainage regulations, Harris County Engineering quietly dropped the effort. Since then, Colony Ridge in Liberty County has grown 50% larger than Manhattan. The developer has filled in wetlands, developed thousands of acres with no detention basins, and failed to line channels with grass to reduce erosion.
Mark Micheletti is now the sole downstream representative on the seven-person SJRA board. And State Rep. Will Metcalf introduced legislation to deny representation to downstream residents on the SJRA Board.
Most of the SJRA studies are still incomplete. And no recommendations have yet been implemented from any studies that are complete. The Spring Creek study, for instance, recommended the purchase of land which had already been sold and developed by the time the SJRA Board got a chance to consider it.
The City of Houston still hopes to add more floodgates to Lake Houston’s dam. However, changes in scope have inflated costs. They now exceed committed funding. The search for funding continues as engineering plans near completion.
In the quest to build a reliable evacuation route from Kingwood, Northpark Drive Phase I is nearing completion, estimated for 27Q1. Waiting in the wings: the Phase II extension to Woodland Hills. And a large detention basin south of St. Martha Catholic Church. In future floods, if Hamblen, Kingwood Drive and Mills Branch Road go under water, this should create a fast, reliable evacuation route. Estimated completion for everything: 2031.
The Coastal Texas Project issued a press release in March 2025 stating that the first component of the plan was starting design. I can find no updates to their website since then.
The Resilient Houston website appears to have been taken down. I can find no recent updates on the program.
FEMA published new draft flood maps for Harris County in March 2026. But they won’t become effective for two to three more years while they go through a public comment and review period. Surrounding counties have not yet released updated flood maps based on higher Atlas 14 rainfall totals. Meanwhile, more than 65,000 homes have been built in the region’s floodplains since Harvey, according to a Houston Chronicle investigation.
TWDB is now in its second flood-planning cycle. Regional Flood Planning Groups submit projects they identify for funding to help reduce flood risk. But there are far more projects than dollars to do them. In the first cycle, the regional groups submitted $46 billion worth of projects and the legislature appropriated $1 billion to fund them.
Conclusions
I draw several conclusions from these observations:
If another flood like Harvey happened now, it could be equally destructive.
Mitigation takes longer and costs more than taxpayers can afford.
So…homebuyers beware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/26
3285 days (nine years) since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/5dayrainfalltotal_westgulfriverforecastcenter.png?fit=1182%2C544&ssl=15441182adminadmin2026-08-27 16:39:122026-08-27 16:45:30Flood-Mitigation Update Nine Years after Hurricane Harvey
NHC Monitoring Two Areas in Atlantic for Tropical Development
8/29/26 at 11am and updated at 9pm – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an outlook this morning that highlights two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development. One in the Gulf could potentially reach the Houston area. However, NHC gives both areas a low chance of formation in the next seven days.
See more details below.
Northeastern/North Central Gulf
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
The system will move west to west-northwest along the northern Gulf coast into early next week.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. NHC gives it a 0 percent chance of formation in the next two cays. This morning NHC put the chance of development in seven days at 10 percent. But they increased it to 20 percent before the end of the day – a number still considered low.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that morning radar from New Orleans and Mobile showed the low roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, FL. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature is disorganized.
Surface pressures have fallen some in the last 24 hours, but the drop has not been significant, according to Lindner.
Overall motion is slow to the west or southwest. Strong westerly wind shear located along the US Gulf coast will discourage development. But some models suggest a 20 percent chance.
Remnants of Dolly East of Leeward Islands
Several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. It could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days. is currently 10 percent.
Early morning visible images do not indicate any sort of closed, low-level circulation and the wave is approaching strong, upper-level, westerly wind shear. If any formation takes place, it will likely happen late next week or over the Labor Day weekend.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/26
3287 Days since Hurricane Harvey
TXDoT Contractors Removing Huffman Floodplain Fill
8/28/26 – Days after TXDoT contractors were caught on camera depositing fill dirt in the Lake Houston floodplain near FM1960, they started removing it. Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger personally visited the site on 8/22/26 and stopped the illegal operation.
The contractors took dirt excavated from an FM2100 detention basin outside of any known floodplain. Then they deposited it inside the floodway and floodplain of Lake Houston at a mobil home park east of the lake on the south side of 1960. Such fill reduces the room for floodwater storage and increases flood risk for other property owners.
City regulations passed in 2018 after Hurricane Harvey prohibit such operations. See Ord. No. 2018-258, Sections 19-34 and 19-43.
Removal Operation Not Yet Complete
Neighbors noticed unusual activity at the fill site starting around after 7pm on 8/27/26. A large excavator started putting the illegal fill into dump trucks. The trucks then hauled it somewhere else, presumably out of a floodplain. The crews reportedly worked under lights until about 5:30am today and returned around 4pm this afternoon.
Neighbors say that last night’s work did not remove all of the illegal fill and they’re happy to see the removal operation continuing.
However, that silt fence still doesn’t reach the ground and a thunderstorm is moving through the area as I write this.
Flickinger stated earlier that the owner would likely be forced to relocate the fill and pay a fine. At this hour, it’s not clear how much the fine was or where the fill is being relocated.
Status of Similar Case Near 59 Bridge
Last year, I caught on camera a separate floodplain-fill operation at 21915 Savelle Road near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork just west of the US59 Bridge. That case was much larger and is still bogged down in legal action.
According to Dustin Hodges, Flickinger’s Chief of Staff, City of Houston Legal and Houston Police Department (HPD) Environmental are reviewing that case right now.
State and Federal authorities have also become involved:
The last time I checked on the Savelle site in late May, I had not noticed any fill being hauled away.
How to Report Floodplain Fill Operations
If you see someone dumping fill in a floodplain or floodway:
Understand that regulations may vary by jurisdiction. The appropriate authority may also vary by jurisdiction. It could be the county engineer, city engineer, county commissioner, city council member, flood control district, TCEQ, or USACE.
When in doubt, contact me and I will help you figure it out.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/26
3286 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Flood-Mitigation Update Nine Years after Hurricane Harvey
8/27/26 – This week marks nine years since Hurricane Harvey, the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the United States. It dropped 60.58 inches of rain in Nederland, Texas, just east of Houston. Harvey also caused an estimated $125 billion in damages, making it the second costliest storm in U.S. history after Katrina.
According to the National Weather Service, only around 10 percent of the river forecast points in southeast Texas remained below flood stage during the event, and…
Nine Years of Flood-Mitigation Efforts
In the wake of all that destruction, the public demanded better flood protection and officials responded. Here is a list of some of the major efforts.
Results to Date
What is the status of all these flood-mitigation efforts today? In the same order:
HCFCD has spent about $2.2 billion of the total $5.2 committed – 42%. Because of deadlines attached to some of the federal funds, the County could lose hundreds of millions of dollars and the head of the flood control district resigned under pressure. A new director is trying to pick up the pieces.
The Army Corps completed its dredging program and the City extended it. However, sediment from sand mines upstream has once again reduced the conveyance of rivers, streams and channels.
At the start of this month, directors were finally sworn in for the Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District. And they are in the process of developing a business plan.
Harris County Engineering, which enforces floodplain regulations, is essentially in disarray, due to loss of personnel and high turnover. Some employees have reportedly resigned within weeks of joining the department. As a consequence, contractors are dumping fill in floodplains with impunity.
After achieving mixed results on getting surrounding counties to adopt minimum drainage regulations, Harris County Engineering quietly dropped the effort. Since then, Colony Ridge in Liberty County has grown 50% larger than Manhattan. The developer has filled in wetlands, developed thousands of acres with no detention basins, and failed to line channels with grass to reduce erosion.
Under pressure from Lake Conroe boaters, the SJRA stopped automatic seasonal lowering of lake levels.
Mark Micheletti is now the sole downstream representative on the seven-person SJRA board. And State Rep. Will Metcalf introduced legislation to deny representation to downstream residents on the SJRA Board.
Most of the SJRA studies are still incomplete. And no recommendations have yet been implemented from any studies that are complete. The Spring Creek study, for instance, recommended the purchase of land which had already been sold and developed by the time the SJRA Board got a chance to consider it.
The City of Houston still hopes to add more floodgates to Lake Houston’s dam. However, changes in scope have inflated costs. They now exceed committed funding. The search for funding continues as engineering plans near completion.
CoH’s long-range dredging operational plan will depend on financing for the Dredging and Maintenance District which is still being studied.
In the quest to build a reliable evacuation route from Kingwood, Northpark Drive Phase I is nearing completion, estimated for 27Q1. Waiting in the wings: the Phase II extension to Woodland Hills. And a large detention basin south of St. Martha Catholic Church. In future floods, if Hamblen, Kingwood Drive and Mills Branch Road go under water, this should create a fast, reliable evacuation route. Estimated completion for everything: 2031.
The Coastal Texas Project issued a press release in March 2025 stating that the first component of the plan was starting design. I can find no updates to their website since then.
The Resilient Houston website appears to have been taken down. I can find no recent updates on the program.
HCFCD’s Resilience Plan is still in development.
FEMA published new draft flood maps for Harris County in March 2026. But they won’t become effective for two to three more years while they go through a public comment and review period. Surrounding counties have not yet released updated flood maps based on higher Atlas 14 rainfall totals. Meanwhile, more than 65,000 homes have been built in the region’s floodplains since Harvey, according to a Houston Chronicle investigation.
The Texas Water Development Board’s (TWDB) first statewide flood plan found that:
TWDB is now in its second flood-planning cycle. Regional Flood Planning Groups submit projects they identify for funding to help reduce flood risk. But there are far more projects than dollars to do them. In the first cycle, the regional groups submitted $46 billion worth of projects and the legislature appropriated $1 billion to fund them.
Conclusions
I draw several conclusions from these observations:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/26
3285 days (nine years) since Hurricane Harvey