9/1/2026 – Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore farther east than predicted today and then veered even farther east as it moved inland. The track defied the consensus of models that predicted it would hit the northeastern parts of Harris and Montgomery Counties, especially the San Jacinto East Fork Watershed.
If the storm stays on its current track it could affect Lake Livingston more than the East Fork or Lake Conroe, as predicted last night at this time.
Screen capture from Radarscope Pro as of 9pm on 9/1/2026. Red line indicated centerline within cone of uncertainty. However, every point within the cone by definition has an equal chance of being hit by the storm.
Tip of a 2500 Square Mile Funnel
Huntsville, for instance, lies at the left edge of the cone. So theoretically, the storm could still dump several inches of rain in the Lake Conroe Watershed.
The area just south of Huntsville drains into both the Lake Conroe/West Fork watershed and the East Fork Watershed.
So theoretically at least, there’s still a chance that stormwater from Edouard could wind up in Lake Houston. It’s important to understand that the area outlined in red above drains into Lake Houston and comprises 2500 square miles in seven counties – an area about 50% larger than Harris County itself.
So, that’s a pretty big target. And Lake Houston is at the tip of that 2500-square-mile funnel.
What Happened to Predictions?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, had this to stay about the storm’s deviation to the east.
“Tropical storm Edouard made landfall this afternoon near Johnson Bayou, LA at 220 pm with 60mph winds.”
“Since then the strong feeder bands have contracted closer to the center and core of Edouard likely due to the interaction with land and the higher intensity at landfall. Additionally, the shorter term motion since landfall has been more toward the NNW instead of the WNW and NW,” said Lindner.
“This continued motion is being supported by the Google Deep Mind. Much of the high resolution models now take the center and heaviest rainfall more in the direction of Polk and Trinity Counties instead of just northeast of the Houston metro area.”
“While some banding on the southern side of the circulation will remain possible after midnight and into early Wednesday, the overall threat for any significant rainfall is decreasing,” continued Lindner. “Areas west of I-45 may not see much additional rainfall. Areas east of I-45 could see an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall in scattered fashion where any banding features develop.”
Lindner concluded, “Given the dry grounds that remain in place the expected rainfall amounts will likely not cause any significant flooding concerns.”
The Wake-Up Call Re: Flood Mitigation
While most people prepared for the worst and many schools and businesses closed this may come as an emotional roller coaster. However, it’s actually good news. It reminds us that little has actually been done to reduce flood potential since Harvey in the upper San Jacinto River Basin.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Edouard-Screenshot-2026-09-01-at-9.07.23-PM.jpg?fit=1100%2C725&ssl=17251100adminadmin2026-09-01 21:46:262026-09-01 21:54:35Houston Spared Direct Hit from TS Edouard
8/31/26 7 pm update – Tropical Depression 5 has become Tropical Storm Edouard. NHC predicts Edouard will move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km)
from the center.
8/31/26 – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical depression in the Gulf about a hundred miles south of Grand Isle, Louisiana, is heading toward Galveston Bay and Houston. A tropical storm warning is in effect. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible all day Tuesday. And a flood watch has been issued from Tuesday at 1 am until Wednesday at 7 am.
The storm will likely come ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass. At its 11 am update, NHC increased the chances of development to 80%.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the main impacts of the storm to be east of I-45.
Lindner says to expect heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches near and along the storm’s track. That includes eastern Galveston, eastern Harris, Chambers, Liberty, Montgomery, and San Jacinto Counties. Isolated totals along the main path could reach 8-10 inches. However, rainfall amounts to the west of I-45 will average around 1-3 inches.
NHC says flash flooding is likely across the region, especially in urban areas.
While grounds are generally dry, excessive hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible, creating rapid run-off.
According to Lindner, the corridor of maximum rainfall looks to be fairly narrow with this system and a strong gradient of rainfall totals is likely.
“The heaviest rains should impact the San Jacinto River basin (East Fork, Peach Creek, Caney Creek) along with Luce Bayou, Cedar Bayou, Goose Creek, and Carpenters Bayou.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Significant rises may occur along these channels depending on rainfall location and eventual amounts.
Winds could reach 40-55 MPH, so expect downed tree limbs and scattered power outages.
Lake Lowering, Where to Check Roads
Coastal Water Authority will begin lowering Lake Houston 1 ft below normal pool to 41.4 ft early this afternoon. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
Lake Conroe is already a foot below normal pool and not releasing any water as of noon on Monday.
Check current roadway conditions and flooded roads using the Houston TranStar Traffic Map. If you encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Just a few inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle away.
Consider delaying travel if conditions worsen, allow extra travel time, and monitor local forecasts and emergency alerts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/31/26
3289 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cone-97L.png?fit=878%2C717&ssl=1717878adminadmin2026-08-31 12:20:262026-08-31 19:03:35NHC Issues Flood Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, City Lowering Lake
8/30/26 update at 8 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 70 percent. Tropical storm watches and warning could be posted tonight or tomorrow morning. So monitor weather closely.
Black line is average of model tracks.
8/30/26 update at 3 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 50 percent. The system has become more organized and development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night.
8/30/26 at 11 am – A weak surface low pressure system now south of Louisiana is heading toward Houston. It should arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. National Hurricane Center puts the chances for tropical development at 30 percent – up from 10 percent yesterday morning.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor this system and forecasts
Base image by NHC. Red arrow superimposed. It represents direction of travel.
Early morning visible satellite images (see above) show a weak and broad surface low pressure systems. It has drifted to the southwest and is now located over the open Gulf waters southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, deep convection has developed and 97L appears slightly more organized than yesterday. However, ships, buoys and oil platforms over the area report that surface pressures remain relatively high (1015-1016mb).
Area of Investigation Designated as Invest 97L
The area of investigation has been designated Invest 97L. It should move slowly toward the west or WNW over the next 24 hours according to numerous models.
By 48 hours (Tuesday) 97L will approach the coast between Galveston Bay and Lake Charles. It will then continue toward the WNW inland over southeast Texas by mid week.
Models show only modest development with 97L. Wind shear in the northern Gulf has fallen into the 5-10 knot range. And water surface temperatures are in the upper 80s., So, there is some potential for more development than the models suggest.
“It is possible that a tropical system could be approaching the upper Texas coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
“Regardless of additional development, a surge a tropical moisture looks likely across the upper TX and southwest LA coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall,” said Lindner.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and check weather forecasts daily.
Chances of tropical formation for a second area now located near the windward islands have also increased overnight. However, that poses no immediate threat to the Texas Coast.
Houston Spared Direct Hit from TS Edouard
9/1/2026 – Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore farther east than predicted today and then veered even farther east as it moved inland. The track defied the consensus of models that predicted it would hit the northeastern parts of Harris and Montgomery Counties, especially the San Jacinto East Fork Watershed.
If the storm stays on its current track it could affect Lake Livingston more than the East Fork or Lake Conroe, as predicted last night at this time.
Tip of a 2500 Square Mile Funnel
Huntsville, for instance, lies at the left edge of the cone. So theoretically, the storm could still dump several inches of rain in the Lake Conroe Watershed.
So theoretically at least, there’s still a chance that stormwater from Edouard could wind up in Lake Houston. It’s important to understand that the area outlined in red above drains into Lake Houston and comprises 2500 square miles in seven counties – an area about 50% larger than Harris County itself.
So, that’s a pretty big target. And Lake Houston is at the tip of that 2500-square-mile funnel.
What Happened to Predictions?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, had this to stay about the storm’s deviation to the east.
“Tropical storm Edouard made landfall this afternoon near Johnson Bayou, LA at 220 pm with 60mph winds.”
“Since then the strong feeder bands have contracted closer to the center and core of Edouard likely due to the interaction with land and the higher intensity at landfall. Additionally, the shorter term motion since landfall has been more toward the NNW instead of the WNW and NW,” said Lindner.
“This continued motion is being supported by the Google Deep Mind. Much of the high resolution models now take the center and heaviest rainfall more in the direction of Polk and Trinity Counties instead of just northeast of the Houston metro area.”
“While some banding on the southern side of the circulation will remain possible after midnight and into early Wednesday, the overall threat for any significant rainfall is decreasing,” continued Lindner. “Areas west of I-45 may not see much additional rainfall. Areas east of I-45 could see an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall in scattered fashion where any banding features develop.”
Lindner concluded, “Given the dry grounds that remain in place the expected rainfall amounts will likely not cause any significant flooding concerns.”
The Wake-Up Call Re: Flood Mitigation
While most people prepared for the worst and many schools and businesses closed this may come as an emotional roller coaster. However, it’s actually good news. It reminds us that little has actually been done to reduce flood potential since Harvey in the upper San Jacinto River Basin.
And that should serve as a wake-up call. With elections coming up in two months, we need to ensure that candidates remember what happened here. And how much flood mitigation work remains ahead nine years after Harvey.
Posted. by Bob Rehak on 9/1/26
3290 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Issues Flood Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, City Lowering Lake
8/31/26 7 pm update – Tropical Depression 5 has become Tropical Storm Edouard. NHC predicts Edouard will move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from the center.
8/31/26 – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical depression in the Gulf about a hundred miles south of Grand Isle, Louisiana, is heading toward Galveston Bay and Houston. A tropical storm warning is in effect. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible all day Tuesday. And a flood watch has been issued from Tuesday at 1 am until Wednesday at 7 am.
This animated GIF file on the NHC site shows the storm growing and starting to rotate.
Track, Rainfall, Wind Predictions
The storm will likely come ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass. At its 11 am update, NHC increased the chances of development to 80%.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the main impacts of the storm to be east of I-45.
Lindner says to expect heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches near and along the storm’s track. That includes eastern Galveston, eastern Harris, Chambers, Liberty, Montgomery, and San Jacinto Counties. Isolated totals along the main path could reach 8-10 inches. However, rainfall amounts to the west of I-45 will average around 1-3 inches.
NHC says flash flooding is likely across the region, especially in urban areas.
While grounds are generally dry, excessive hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible, creating rapid run-off.
According to Lindner, the corridor of maximum rainfall looks to be fairly narrow with this system and a strong gradient of rainfall totals is likely.
Significant rises may occur along these channels depending on rainfall location and eventual amounts.
Winds could reach 40-55 MPH, so expect downed tree limbs and scattered power outages.
Lake Lowering, Where to Check Roads
Coastal Water Authority will begin lowering Lake Houston 1 ft below normal pool to 41.4 ft early this afternoon. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
Lake Conroe is already a foot below normal pool and not releasing any water as of noon on Monday.
Check current roadway conditions and flooded roads using the Houston TranStar Traffic Map. If you encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Just a few inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle away.
Consider delaying travel if conditions worsen, allow extra travel time, and monitor local forecasts and emergency alerts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/31/26
3289 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Potential Tropical Threat Heading Toward Houston
8/30/26 update at 8 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 70 percent. Tropical storm watches and warning could be posted tonight or tomorrow morning. So monitor weather closely.
8/30/26 update at 3 pm – NHC has increased the chances of formation to 50 percent. The system has become more organized and development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night.
8/30/26 at 11 am – A weak surface low pressure system now south of Louisiana is heading toward Houston. It should arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. National Hurricane Center puts the chances for tropical development at 30 percent – up from 10 percent yesterday morning.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor this system and forecasts
Early morning visible satellite images (see above) show a weak and broad surface low pressure systems. It has drifted to the southwest and is now located over the open Gulf waters southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, deep convection has developed and 97L appears slightly more organized than yesterday. However, ships, buoys and oil platforms over the area report that surface pressures remain relatively high (1015-1016mb).
Area of Investigation Designated as Invest 97L
The area of investigation has been designated Invest 97L. It should move slowly toward the west or WNW over the next 24 hours according to numerous models.
By 48 hours (Tuesday) 97L will approach the coast between Galveston Bay and Lake Charles. It will then continue toward the WNW inland over southeast Texas by mid week.
Models show only modest development with 97L. Wind shear in the northern Gulf has fallen into the 5-10 knot range. And water surface temperatures are in the upper 80s., So, there is some potential for more development than the models suggest.
“Regardless of additional development, a surge a tropical moisture looks likely across the upper TX and southwest LA coast Tuesday-Thursday with an increasing threat of heavy to potentially excessive rainfall,” said Lindner.
Interests along the upper TX and southwest LA coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and check weather forecasts daily.
Chances of tropical formation for a second area now located near the windward islands have also increased overnight. However, that poses no immediate threat to the Texas Coast.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/30/26
3288 Days since Hurricane Harvey