News Archives - Reduce Flooding

Harris County Commissioners To Consider 44 Flood Control Items Thursday

10/13/6 – Harris County Commissioners will consider 44 items on their 10/15/26 agenda this week from the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD). In addition to several routine easements, property acquisitions and settlements, commissioners will consider more than $30 million of flood-control contracts and $75 million of grants from the Texas Water Development Board.

CDBG Grants

However, the most lively discussion will likely be around the Community Development Block Grant Programs for Disaster Recover and Mitigation (CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT), for which HCFCD recently received a one-year extension. Without the extension, the county faced the imminent loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in CDBG funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Texas General Land Office.

A related spreadsheet, dated 9/15/26 (a month ago – and just days before the extension), shows how much the County stood to lose.

With just five months left before the 2/28/27 deadline, only two of seven subdivision drainage projects totaling $112.5 million were completed and only two-thirds of the money had been expended. And of 30 other CDBG-DR and MIT projects backed by grants totaling $850 million, only $69.8 million had been expended – 8% of the total.

But the county needed to spend at least $322 million of the $850 million before 2/28/27. So…

With roughly 90% of the allotted time expired, HCFCD has spent only 22% of the $322 million.
Calculation based on HCFCD spreadsheet

Little wonder that the previous executive director of HCFCD resigned under pressure in June despite Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia’s defense of her performance.

According to the agenda, new management at HCFCD has been working with the GLO “on potential approaches to maximize the benefits county entities can deliver utilizing the grant funds,” so commissioners can take “potential action on a path forward for the programs.”

We should learn more on Thursday about exactly what that means. The GLO says it is looking forward to seeing a comprehensive plan. In other news…

Contract Approvals

HCFCD is asking for contract approvals totaling approximately $31 million. They include:

$1,000,000 for VERSA Infrastructure with four additional one-year renewal terms to provide on-call construction engineering and inspection services
$1,000,000 for Aguirre & Fields, LP with four additional one-year renewal terms to provide on-call construction engineering and inspection services
Reimbursement to MUD #276 for mowing for the next five years in the Addicks Reservoir Watershed under an Interlocal Agreement ($41,130.45/year)
Mowing reimbursement to MUD #439 for the next five years in the Halls Bayou Watershed ($41,964.45/year)
$393,210 one-year joint-funding agreement with the U.S. Department of the Interior/U.S. Geological Survey to research surface water resources and provide technical assistance
Amendment to staff augmentation and geotechnical services agreement with Aviles Engineering ($200,000)
Amendment to agreement with HR Green to provide design, bidding, and construction-phase engineering services for a detention basin in the Sims Bayou Watershed
Change in Contract #2 with Environmental Allies Inc. for the Brookglen Stormwater Detention Basin (Phase 2) in the Armand Bayou Watershed
Extending contract #7 with Allgood Construction for 32 days for the excavation of the Inwood Forest Stormwater Detention Basin in the White Oak Bayou Watershed
$6,186,800 low-bid contract with Ceballos Construction for channel repairs in Vince Bayou, Armand Bayou, San Jacinto/Galveston Bay, Clear Creek and Brays Bayou watersheds for one year with four one-year renewal options
$192,000 one-year contract with SiteOne Landscape Supply to supply wildflower seeds with four one-year extensions (only bid)
With Lockwood, Andrews & Newnam, Inc. for professional engineering services/program management for the Clear Creek Federal Flood Risk Management Program on basis of highest overall evaluation
$429,619 one-year renewal with ArborTrue for hazardous tree and tree limb removal
$3,500,000 one-year renewal with A. Morfin Trucking for concrete-channel-lining repairs
$977,450 with Outreach Strategists for community-income surveys and evaluation for mitigation projects
$281,250 one-year renewal for CSI Consolidated for de-silting outfalls and storm sewer systems
$2,036,970 with HR Green for professional engineering/support services for the Helms Stormwater Detention Basin and conveyance improvements
$7,263 for additional ClayHr services
One-year Disaster Recovery Renewal Options with:
- GrantWorks for $4,000,000
- Tetra Tech for $4,000,000
- Stuart Consulting for $7,000,000.

Grant-Agreement Approvals

HCFCD is asking for approval of eight grants from the Texas Water Development Board totaling $75 million that were approved by the Texas Legislature in the last session. They include:

$5,000,000 for Kingwood Diversion Ditch Improvements in the San Jacinto River Watershed
$6,500,000 for the West Little York Stormwater Detention Basin in the Addicks Reservoir Watershed
$22,500,000 for repairs along Cypress Creek adjacent to the Kickerillo-Mischer Preserve
$2,500,000 for the Halls Aldine Westfield South Stormwater Detention Basin and Channel Conveyance Improvements in the Halls Bayou Watershed
$10,000,000 for the South Mayde Creek Bypass Channel in the Addicks Reservoir
$11,000,000 for the Cloverleaf Area Drainage Improvements in the Carpenters Bayou Watershed
$15,000,000 for the Helms Stormwater Detention Basin and Channel Conveyance Improvements in the Halls Bayou Watershed
$2,500,000 for channel modification and stormwater detention basins in the Greens Bayou mid-reach area.

Transmittals

HCFCD sent a number of reports to commissioners, including:

Two certificates of substantial completion with:
- RES Environmental for floating islands at a detention basin in the Clear Creek Watershed
- Texas Dewatering for the Addicks and Barker Reservoir Watersheds Package 2
12-month procurement outlook as of Q3 2026, reflecting both Invitations to Bid and Requests for Proposals/Qualifications
Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force annual report
Projects scheduled for advertisement to bid for:
- Mowing and maintenance for the East, Northeast, West and Central Regions (separately)
- Friendswood Regional stormwater detention basin
- Watershed repairs to channels in the Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Barker Reservoir, Addicks Reservoir, and Willow Creek watersheds
- Installation of Aerating Fountains at Hill at Sims Park.

The meeting on Thursday will start at 9AM. To watch it live, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/13/26

3332 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Partial Kingwood Diversion Ditch Funding Up For Approval Thursday

10/12/26 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has 44 items on the 10/15/26 Commissioners Court Agenda. Among them, a request to approve a $5 million grant from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) for drainage improvements to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. See Item 432.

TWDB authorized the grant to HCFCD in January this year. State Rep. Charles Cunningham obtained it during the 89th Legislative Regular Session. By itself, the $5 million won’t come close to funding the entire Diversion Ditch Project. But it will play an important part in the larger funding picture.

On 3/26/26, former HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen, told the San Jacinto River Authority Board that the entire project will cost approximately $43 million and is fully funded through construction. At the time, Petersen estimated that construction would start in April 2027 and finish before the end of 2027.

Scope, Location Funding of Project

The scope includes four bridge replacements, a new diversion structure, 4.2 miles of channel work, and a new outfall that bypasses River Grove Park. See Page 18 of Petersen’s presentation.

Bens Branch and Kingwood Diversion Ditch — *Red Diagonal = Bens Branch. White = Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Green = new outfall to river.*

Additional funding for Diversion Ditch improvements will come from Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s 2023 earmark to replace the Walnut Lane Bridge shown below. Crenshaw’s earmark helped rescue the project from oblivion in 2025 when the Democratic members of Harris County Commissioners Court passed a motion to reallocate all funding from projects that fell below the top quartile of their equity prioritization framework to projects in the top quartile.

However, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey PE warned of unintended consequences associated with that plan, i.e., the loss of federal funding already committed, such as Crenshaw’s. Crenshaw requested the funding in 2023. Congress awarded it in 2024.

Dan Crenshaw on Walnut Lane Bridge over Kingwood Diversion Ditch — U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw gives the thumbs up to the Walnut Lane Bridge project. Widening the bridge is necessary to widen the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (background) which will also help reduce flood risk along Bens Branch.

Diverting water from Bens Branch is important because Bens Branch runs through Kingwood Town Center where 12 people died from Harvey flooding.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch — *Looking N toward Kingwood Drive from over the Walnut Lane Bridge.*

Complementary Project

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10, also plans to build a detention basin and expand the Diversion Ditch north of Northpark Drive in Montgomery County. Spending Harris County money outside Harris County has encountered political resistance among some Harris County Commissioners in the past even though it could save Harris County lives.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch Detention Project for Northpark Expansion — *LHRA/TIRZ 10 Project T-1015 complement HCFCD efforts*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/12/26

3331 Days since Hurricane Harvey

What Causes Hurricanes to Form, Strengthen and Weaken?

10/10/26 – After a life measured in days, Hurricane Isaias went from an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche to a killer, Cat 3 hurricane to a post-tropical storm now causing flash flooding in the Appalachians. So, what forces cause hurricanes to form, strengthen and weaken?

I dedicate this post to curious readers and budding scientists still in school. Please share it with your students, children and grandchildren.

What Causes Hurricanes to Form?

The forces listed below support formation of an organized tropical cyclone.

Key force or condition	What happens physically	Effect on the developing storm
An existing weather disturbance	Thunderstorms gather around a low-pressure area, such as a tropical wave.	Provides the starting circulation around which a storm can organize.
Warm ocean water	The ocean supplies heat and water vapor to air above it. Water temperatures around 80°F (27°C) generally favor development.	Supplies energy for sustained thunderstorms.
Moist air	Humidity limits evaporation and cooling within developing thunderstorms.	Helps thunderstorms persist and organize.
An atmosphere that supports rising air	Warm, moist air rises, cools, and condenses, releasing heat.	Builds deep thunderstorms that help strengthen the circulation.
Low vertical wind shear	Winds change relatively little with height, allowing the lower and upper circulation to remain aligned.	Helps thunderstorms organize around the surface center.
Sufficient distance from the equator	Earth’s rotation deflects moving air through the Coriolis effect.	Helps organize a rotating circulation; tropical cyclones rarely form within about 5 degrees of the equator.

These conditions favor formation, but their presence does not guarantee that a hurricane will develop. Sources: NOAA’s hurricane overview and formation explanation. www.noaa.gov.

*Warm, moist air flows inward over the ocean and rises in thunderstorms. An organized hurricane develops a central eye, and outflow high above the storm.* *Source: NOAA*

What Causes Hurricanes to Strengthen?

Once a tropical storm develops, alignment of the conditions below can intensify it into a hurricane (sustained winds 74 mph or greater).

Key force or condition	What happens physically	Effect on the hurricane
A continuing supply of ocean heat and moisture	Surface air picks up heat and water vapor, then carries that energy into the eyewall.	Fuels stronger thunderstorms and circulation.
Warm water extending deep below the surface	Wind-driven mixing brings up relatively warm water instead of quickly exposing cold water.	Sustains the energy supply as the hurricane churns the ocean.
Concentrated heating in the eyewall	Rising water vapor condenses and releases heat close to the center.	Strengthens the warm core and helps central pressure fall, increasing winds.
Low or no vertical wind shear	The circulation remains more vertically aligned.	Allows eyewall thunderstorms to organize and heat the core efficiently.
Moist surrounding air	Less dry air enters and disrupts eyewall updrafts.	Helps maintain vigorous thunderstorms around the center.
Effective outflow aloft	Air rising through the eyewall spreads outward near the top of the storm.	Supports the continuing flow of air inward below and upward through the eyewall.
An increasingly organized inner core	Thunderstorms form a more continuous eyewall; the eyewall may contract.	Concentrates the strongest circulation closer to the center and can accelerate strengthening.

*Low wind shear lets circulation remain vertically aligned, helping thunderstorms concentrate heat around the center and favoring strengthening. Contrast this image with the one below. Source: NOAA*

Sources: NOAA’s ocean conditions research and hurricane modeling explanation.

What Causes Hurricanes to Weaken?

These conditions cause hurricanes to weaken as they move.

Key force or condition	What happens physically	Effect on the hurricane
Strong vertical wind shear	Winds at different heights tilt the circulation and displace thunderstorms from the surface center.	Disrupts the organized eyewall and reduces heating of the core.
Dry air entering the inner core	Evaporation cools air within thunderstorms, encouraging downdrafts and interrupting moist updrafts.	Erodes eyewall thunderstorms and can open gaps in the eyewall.
Cooler ocean water	Less heat and water vapor transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.	Reduces the energy available to sustain the hurricane.
Cold water mixed upward by the storm	Strong winds churn the ocean and can bring colder water to the surface.	Allows the hurricane to weaken its own energy supply, especially over a shallow warm layer.
Landfall	Access to ocean heat and moisture diminishes; surface friction increases, and terrain can disrupt circulation.	Slows winds and breaks down the eyewall, although heavy rain can persist.
An eyewall replacement cycle	An outer eyewall develops and intercepts inflow feeding the original eyewall, which weakens and disappears.	Often temporarily lowers maximum winds while expanding the wind field; strengthening may resume.

Strong wind shear tilts the circulation and disrupts the organized flow of heat and moisture, inhibiting development and potentially weakening the storm. Landfall, dry air, and cooler water also cause weakening. Source: NOAA.

Isaias encountered wind sheer shortly before reaching land. That lowered its intensity at landfall from Cat 3 to Cat 2.

Sources: NOAA’s satellite interpretation guide, hurricane FAQ, and eyewall research.

Effect on Flooding

Note that “strengthening” and “weakening” usually describe changes in maximum sustained winds. A weakening hurricane can still produce destructive storm surge and prolonged, intense rainfall. Hurricane Harvey is an excellent example.

In 2017, Harvey’s winds weakened dramatically before much of Houston’s catastrophic flooding occurred. The National Weather Service documents the sequence below.

Stage	What happened
Landfall, August 25	Harvey struck near Rockport as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph sustained winds.
Weakening, August 26	It weakened to a tropical storm within approximately 12 hours, then maintained winds around 40 mph for the next couple of days.
Prolonged flooding	Weak steering currents caused Harvey to stall near the coast. Part of its circulation remained over the Gulf, sustaining its moisture supply and repeated torrential rainfall.

The results were extraordinary:

The key point: Harvey weakened as a windstorm, but remained a catastrophic rainstorm.

A lower hurricane category does not necessarily mean a lower flood threat.

In fact, Harvey produced the highest recorded rainfall total ever from a single tropical cyclone in the continental United States: 60.58 inches near Nederland, Texas, according to the National Weather Service.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/10/2026

3329 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Isaias Now a Major Hurricane

10/9/26 @ 10AM – This morning, Hurricane Isaias intensified into a major Category 3 Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph. Isaias should make landfall near Pensacola late tonight or early tomorrow morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Increasing forward motion should bring strong winds far inland over the southeast U.S. into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, causing widespread power outages.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects tropical-storm-force winds to arrive on the Florida panhandle by 2PM today.

Arrival Time

Tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward 185 miles from the center and hurricane force winds 30 miles.

Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi, and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Rainfall and Flooding Potential

Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend.

Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible.

Storm Surge Up to 9 Feet

NHC predicts damaging storm surge up to 9 feet in the western Florida Panhandle, with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Maximum values will occur near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

Infrared satellite images show an eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms.

*Infrared satellite image as of 9:16 CDT this morning*

Tropical Tidbits shows this animated IR Satellite Loop. However, an eye is not apparent on the Geo-Color view.

Near Peak, but Increasing Forward Speed and Wind-Field Width

The hurricane is passing over a warm deep water eddy and that is likely helping the intensification process in the face of increasing vertical shear. Isaias has turned toward the NNE and is increasing in forward speed.

Isaias is likely near peak. However, it is possible that the hurricane could intensify a bit more this morning before strong shear begins to impact the system.

The wind field will greatly expand later today into tonight as Isaias makes landfall and moves inland while interacting with an upper level trough to the west.

Origin of Name

Isaias is pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs” – four syllables – with the emphasis on the third. That is NHC’s official pronunciation.

According to ChatGPT, Isaías is the Spanish and Portuguese form of Isaiah, the biblical prophet’s name. It comes from Hebrew Yesha‘yahu, meaning “Yahweh is salvation,” or “salvation of the Lord.”

Why use a name that English speakers may find difficult? NHC follows name lists maintained by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Hurricane Committee. Atlantic lists deliberately balance English, French and Spanish names because storms affect countries speaking all three languages. The lists rotate every six years. Isaias replaced Ike after the destructive 2008 hurricane caused Ike’s name to be retired. NOAA

WMO itself says storm names should be instantly recognizable for safety. The multilingual approach explains the choice, although it clearly creates a pronunciation hurdle for many English speakers.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/26 based on information from NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

3328 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Isaias Now a Hurricane

9/8/26 – At 4 am CDT today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory stating that Tropical Storm Isaias had intensified into a hurricane overnight. NHC expects winds to increase to near major hurricane status in the next 24 hours and says the storm will produce life-threatening surge up to 7-feet high across the northern Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi to the Florida panhandle.

Isaias is now moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph and should turn toward the northeast later today followed by a turn northward on Friday. NHC expects landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

A dropsonde launched from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found average winds of 76 kt – the basis for upgrading Isaias to a hurricane at 0330 UTC.

Environmental Factors Affecting Forecast

Since that time, Isaias has continued to intensify, but with some northward tilt with height, likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear that continues to hinder circulation. However, circulation has increased since yesterday.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias continues to maintain an east-northeastward heading. The most critical steering features:

A subtropical ridge centered east of the Bahamas
A mid-level trough along the northern Gulf coast
Low pressure digging in from the Rocky Mountains.

The net effect:

Isaias should make a left turn to the northeast and the north over the next 24-48 hours.
NHC

The forecast has not changed appreciably though models continue to disagree over the exact track (east or west) after the turn to the north. The storm should become post-tropical over the Tennessee Valley.

The intensity forecast remains difficult. Isaias is fighting around 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and an eyewall keeps coming and going.

*Infrared image of circulation at 5 AM CDT*

Other favorable environmental factors for further intensification include 30 C sea-surface temperatures and abundant moisture. Shear should not increase appreciably for the next 24 hours. In fact, the hurricane has intensified despite shear. So NHC expects significant intensification in the short-term. making Isaias just shy of major hurricane intensity in 24 hours.

However, in the final 12-24 hours before Isaias makes landfall on the north Gulf coast, vertical wind shear should ramp up to 40-50 kt. This will likely impart some weakening. At the same time, the hurricane’s wind field may become broader.

Regardless, NHC expects Isaias to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall with gusty winds extended well inland.

Key Messages from NHC

Key Messages:

1. Isaias should strengthen and become a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along a portion of the northern Gulf Coast,and a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

2. Damaging hurricane force-winds will extend across the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. Residents there should prepare for extended power outages.

3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

NHC Graphics Illustrate Risks

The graphics below show current predicted risks.

Isaias is the latest “first hurricane of the Atlantic season” on record.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/2026 based on NHC information

3327 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Likely in Gulf

10/6/2026 – At 1 pm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a 100% chance of tropical formation in the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula, up from 90% earlier this morning.

Some weather models suggest it could become as strong as a Category 4, though most suggest a lower intensity level. Three models put it into the “major storm” category.

High pressure in Texas will likely protect the Houston region and push the storm toward Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. You can see the effect of the high pressure below.

*Satellite image from NHC as of 9:51 Houston time on 10/6/26*

This animated loop on Tropical Tidbits shows the storm growing and the beginnings of an eye, which is also visible on the water vapor image below.

*Water vapor image from 9:46am Houston time on 9/6/26*

Timing and Impacts

We should see strengthening later this week.

Regardless of intensity, heavy rains and flooding could occur over portions of the northern Gulf coast and southeastern U.S. later this week and into the weekend.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, Invest 92L looks better organized this morning, but it’s difficult to tell whether a center of circulation has formed yet. The system is drifting toward the east or southeast and this general motion should continue for the next day or so.

Lindner says lower pressure will develop over west Texas later this week allowing the storm to turn north and accelerate. The system should drift for the next 24 hours before starting a more consistent motion around 48 hours, and then a faster northward motion later this week.

“On this track, a hurricane will likely approach the central U.S. Gulf coast late this week or early this weekend.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Persistent northeasterly flow along the coast will increase into late week. Forecasted tides will run 1-2 feet above normal by late week and minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tide from Thursday through Saturday. Depending on the intensity of 92L, higher swells could push tides a bit higher than currently forecast.

Monitor the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center for frequent updates as the storm approaches land.

As we saw with Tropical Storm Edouard, minor changes in the track of a storm can make huge differences in impacts. At this stage, nothing is certain.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2026

3325 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Why 27% of People in the San Jacinto River Basin Live or Work in a Floodplain

No single authority in the San Jacinto River Basin has responsibility for flooding. Instead we have jurisdictional fragmentation. Multiple jurisdictions have limited authority to solve parts of our regional flooding problems.

The amended 2023 San Jacinto Regional Flood Plan (Page 1-13) indicates the river basin has:

11 Counties
83 Municipalities
980 other entities with flood-related authority

The Plan states, “Many of these entities have the authority to implement flood-related planning or projects but do not necessarily have the authority to implement or enforce floodplain management practices or standards.”

Collectively, our governmental organizations don’t match the nature of the problem: floodwater doesn’t respect jurisdictional boundaries. Yet people don’t want to give up their limited authority.

Local control doesn’t yield a collective solution.

Scarborough Example

The Scarborough Development in southern Montgomery County at the confluence of Spring and Cypress Creeks with the San Jacinto West Fork exemplifies the regulatory issue. Scarborough’s 5,300 acres lie between multiple jurisdictions.

The proposed development is in Montgomery County but borders Harris County. Part of it is in Houston’s extra territorial jurisdiction (ETJ) and part isn’t.
FEMA has updated its flood maps only for portions of the proposed development that lie within Houston’s ETJ.
The development lies in Montgomery County Precinct 3 but will affect flooding in Precinct 4 and Harris County.
Montgomery County doesn’t have a flood control district. Harris County does.
Subsidence plagues the area and development will make subsidence worse. That could create a bowl in the landscape that increases flood risk. But the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District is not considering subsidence in its new plans and will not acknowledge the concerns of the Harris-Galvestion Subsidence District.

Almost all of the proposed development lies in a floodplain or floodway. See below.

Floodplains Streams from Ryko Drainage Study — *Only dark gray areas within red border are elevated above floodplains.*

San Jacinto West Fork at 59 during Harvey where margins of safety became overwhelmed — *US59 bridge during Harvey at intersection of Montgomery and Harris Counties, Houston and Humble; Scarborough just out of frame to right.*

San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group Recommendations

To solve this problem and others like it, the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning group is considering a series of legislative and regulatory recommendations that include:

Creating, consolidating, or reorganizing regional flood authorities, flood-control districts, river authority programs, and drainage districts where broader regional coordination is needed.
Supporting multi-jurisdictional cooperation at the evaluation, strategy and project levels.
Clarifying roles and responsibilities for floodplain management in extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) areas to reduce gaps or overlaps in responsibility for floodplain management, permitting, and drainage standards..

Three Aspects of Current, Self-Defeating “Flood Governance”

In business, management consultants commonly call this a “silo problem.” The more precise governance term is an “institutional collective-action dilemma,” compounded by a “scale mismatch.”

Organizational Silos

McKinsey describes how optimizing individual functions in silos can undermine performance when trying to address a collective concern. In this case, think of departments as jurisdictions and the San Jacinto River watershed as the organization.

Theoretically, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) has responsibility to control flooding throughout the river basin. But the SJRA almost never exercises it; they say they don’t have funding. The closest they’ve come to flood management is when they established a flood management division after Hurricane Harvey. But they have only managed a series of studies funded by others. And the studies have produced no tangible improvements to date.

So, by default, the watershed functions under multiple jurisdictions that each work within their own boundaries, responsibilities, budgets, and priorities. However, solving flooding problems requires collective action across jurisdictions.

Institutional Collective-Action Dilemma

Because floodwaters don’t respect jurisdictional boundaries, independent authorities need a shared solution. However, disagreements over costs, benefits, commitments, and loss of autonomy impede collective action.

Political scientist Richard Feiock describes this as “an institutional collective-action dilemma.” The term explicitly addresses barriers to coordinated decisions, including negotiation costs, constraints on autonomy, and difficulty securing enforceable commitments. Cooperation can benefit the region while requiring individual governments to accept obligations or surrender some discretion.

Scale/Institutional Mismatch

The geographic reach of the flooding problem exceeds the geographic reach of the institutions empowered to address it.

The term “scale mismatch” captures this dilemma. Some water-governance researchers call this the problem of institutional fit: whether the institutions managing a resource match its physical processes and geographic extent. Academic research has applied this concept specifically to flood planning across jurisdictions.

Fragmented Flood Governance and Conflicting Mandates

In Texas, authority to address flooding issues does not match the geographic extent of watersheds. And local incentives do not necessarily produce river-basin-wide results. The problem is especially acute for those who live or work at the intersection of jurisdictional boundaries.

Yes, multiple authorities could achieve a collective solution through binding agreements, shared standards, funding, and accountability. But there is no effective mechanism for making local decisions serve basin-wide, flood-reduction concerns.

Worse, some of the jurisdictions that have responsibility to fix flooding also have conflicting mandates. For instance, Montgomery County Engineering, which would permit the Scarborough Development, answers to the County Judge and Commissioners. Their top priority may be economic growth.

Another example: The Texas General Land Office, which administers $14 billion of Flood Remediation and Mitigation money for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, has reportedly invested $140 million in developing the Scarborough land – some of the most flood-prone land in the region.

Need for a River-Basin-Wide Flood-Control District

One in five Texans live in a known floodplain … and more than one in four in the San Jacinto River Basin (27%). Nationally, a commonly cited benchmark for people living in floodplains is 10%.

According to the 2024 State Flood Plan, 5.2 million Texans live or work in identified 100-year or 500-year flood-hazard areas. Those areas contain 1.66 million buildings. And those figures would likely grow if all floodplains were mapped using current rainfall statistics.

Clearly, the upcoming state legislature should seriously consider the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group’s recommendations above to consolidate responsibilities for flood management.

State Representative Dennis Paul proposed such legislation previously. But the parochial concerns of local authorities, such as Harris County Commissioner Adrian Garcia, fearful of losing influence and control, killed the bill.

Early voting starts this month. In the meantime, sign the petition protesting Scarborough if you haven’t already done so. One of the region’s most respected hydrologists has said that if the property gets developed, it would be like aiming a firehose at the Kingwood/Humble area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/26

3324 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flooding is Predictable, Flood Disasters are Optional

10/4/26 – Floods have happened throughout history and will continue to happen. We cannot control the weather. We can, however, control whether we put people in harm’s way. Flood disasters are optional.

The 5300-acre Scarborough property at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek, and Cypress Creek is one of the most flood-prone properties in the Houston region. The developer hopes to build up to 7,000 homes there.

Ryko, Scarborough Flood risk — *Approximate outlines of Scarborough property shown in FEMA Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Cross-hatch=floodway, aqua=1% annual chance floodplain, brown=.02% annual chance floodplain.*

Only tiny portions of the Scarborough property lie above floodplains and floodways. And the lowest portions go under 25-30 feet of water during large floods.

*From FEMA Base Flood Elevation Viewer. Point sampled was near confluence of West Fork/Spring Creek.*

Scarborough Property Makes Excellent Candidate for Conservation

That’s why this property, makes a perfect candidate for conservation, much like Lake Houston Park did iin the East Fork Watershed during the early 1980s.

In its September 2026 meeting, the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (SJRFPG) identified gaps in current regulations and legislation. It also laid out proposals to plug those gaps. In my previous post, I used the Scarborough property to dramatize the importance of three of those recommendations. They concerned building codes, elevations, and overlapping jurisdictions.

This post will discuss how three more of the SJRFPG recommendations apply to the Scarborough property. They concern:

Legislative incentives for conservation easements, land conservation, restoration, riparian protection, wetland protection, and landowner stewardship practices in flood-prone areas
Regulatory changes that promote nature-based solutions, green infrastructure, floodplain preservation, conservation, and hybrid gray/green approaches
Promoting public education and outreach regarding flood awareness, preparedness, flood-prone areas, and the importance of protecting floodplains.

State Park Needed

A Scarborough subsidiary called the San Jacinto Preserve actually owns the land, which Scarborough bought from Ryko in 2025. It is a haven for wildlife, including bald eagles. Currently, the Bayou Land Conservancy manages a small conservation easement on several sensitive areas within the property.

*File photo. Bald eagle in flight over West Fork near Scarborough property*

In my opinion, Texas Parks and Wildlife needs to step up and turn the land into another state park. That would prevent homes from being built on the property and flooding. It would also prevent an increase in flood risk to homes downstream. One of the region’s leading hydrologists has said that if this property gets developed, it would be like aiming a fire hose at the Kingwood/Humble area.

Floodplain encroachment increases the chances of future man-made disasters. And mitigating those disasters typically costs far fewer tax dollars than simply conserving flood-prone property in the first place. Plus, dozens of studies have shown that proximity to parks increases surrounding home values as much as 20% and provides healthy, recreational opportunities for everyone.

The Houston City Council, Harris County Commissioners Court, the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force, Bayou Land Conservancy and nearly 10,000 surrounding residents have all protested the development of this land.

If you haven’t yet signed the petition against the Scarborough Development, please sign it today.

Scarborough Wetlands — *Wetlands on Scarborough property*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/2026

3323 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Scarborough Illustrates Value of Flood-Planning Group’s Recommendations

10/2/26 – At least one in five Texans currently live in floodplains. And the percentage is probably higher than that given how sporadically floodplain maps get updated. Against that backdrop, San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (SJRFPG) has proposed 36 recommendations for the next State Flood Plan to improve our safety.

The recommendations plug gaps in legislation and regulations. They aren’t just words on paper. During the next big flood, they could mean the difference between staying dry or getting water in your house. In extreme cases, they could even make the difference between life and death.

To help dramatize the importance of these regulations, I’d like to present some real world examples in a series of posts. I’ll start with the 5300-acre proposed Scarborough development upstream from Lake Houston. It involves at least 14 of the proposed recommendations.

The Scarborough Example

One of the region’s leading hydrologists has said, “If that property gets developed, it will be like aiming a firehose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Houston City Council unanimously passed a resolution against the development. So did Harris County Commissioners Court. A Montgomery County Engineer warned of the dangers. Almost 10,000 neighbors have signed a protest petition. But Montgomery County Commissioners have yet to take a position. And the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for managing $14 billion of federal flood mitigation dollars in Texas is backing the development, reportedly investing as much as $140 million according to State Representative Steve Toth.

The property lies almost entirely in the floodway and floodplains at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek and Turkey Creek – one of the most flood-prone areas in the region. Ponds and wetlands dot the property. During floods, homeowners on the Scarborough property could become trapped by rising waters, which has reached approximately 25 feet above dry land near the US59 bridge over the West Fork.

So, how could the SJRFPG recommendations improve nearby public safety if adopted?

Applicable Recommendations

At a minimum, the following recommendations could affect development on the Scarborough land and public safety in surrounding areas.

L4 – Update current statewide building codes with appropriate freeboard (safety margin above floodplain) or higher flood standards
L7 – Clarify and expand county regulatory authority for floodplain management, land-use planning, waterway setbacks, permitting, and management of new development in unincorporated areas
L9 – Expand funding for flood early warning systems, stream gages, low-water crossing safety improvements, flood-hazard signage, gates, and roadway warning systems
L10 – Provide funding and incentives for conservation easements, land conservation, restoration, riparian protection, wetland protection, and landowner stewardship practices in flood-prone areas
L12 – Support creation, consolidation, or reorganization of regional flood authorities, flood-control districts, river authority programs, drainage districts where broader regional coordination is needed
A1 – Convert Base Level Engineering (BLE) data into regulatory information or detailed Flood Insurance Rate Maps
A3 – Promote public education and outreach regarding flood awareness, preparedness, flood-prone areas, and the importance of protecting floodplains
A5 – Develop state incentives for local governments to participate in the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Community Rating System (CRS) program. CRS exceeds minimum requirements of NFIP and will help achieve state flood plan requirements
A6 – Establish a publicly available statewide database to track flood-related fatalities
A8 – Model future flood conditions uniformly across the state
A10 – Promote nature-based solutions, green infrastructure, floodplain preservation, conservation, and hybrid gray/green approaches
A11 – Establish statewide building standards for minimum finished-floor elevations above the 500-year floodplain
A14 – Improve methods for measuring and documenting flood damages, including uninsured losses, actual flooded structures, financial damages, agricultural damages, and industrial losses, rather than just relying on flood-insurance claims which undercount damages and economic consequences
A16 – Clarify roles and responsibilities for floodplain management in extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) areas to reduce gaps or overlaps in responsibility for floodplain management, permitting, and drainage standards.

Explaining all these could take thousands of words, so let me focus on three today and discuss the rest in future posts.

Building Codes, Elevations and Overlapping Jurisdictions

Statewide Texas building codes haven’t been updated since 2021. But at that time, the legislature adopted the 2012 International Residential and Building Codes (pre-Harvey) now in effect. Cities and counties may adopt newer editions or local amendments. And two jurisdictions affecting Scarborough have, but they don’t agree.

Part of the Scarborough property lies in the City of Houston’s Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction and part lies in unincorporated Montgomery County. The greatest potential impact of modern flood-design standards isn’t on the land already in the 100-year floodplain. It’s on the land between the 100- and 500-year flood elevations. And only tiny portions of the Scarborough property lie outside the 500-year floodplain.

The latest edition of the international building code provides greater recognition of 500-year flood hazards than the 2012 edition.

One provision in the newest standards that could affect Scarborough: the movement toward regulating/designing for the 500-year floodplain rather than stopping at the traditional 100-year floodplain.

The American Society of Civil Engineers explains that the change was prompted partly by the experience of structures suffering flood damage despite complying with existing codes.

If the state adopted the latest edition of building codes, construction requirements could increase for:

Buildings between the 500-year and 100-year floodplains
Flood-design elevations
Flood loads
Flood-resistant materials
Elevation of utilities and equipment
Flood-proofing (especially significant for commercial buildings at ground level)

FEMA’s analysis of the newest International Codes also cites floodproofing documentation, elevators and conveying systems, manufactured homes, accessory structures and other flood-resistant construction requirements.

Costs for structures between the new 100-year and 500-year flood zones would see the most impact.

Scarborough is unusual because of its jurisdictional circumstances involving MoCo and Houston. MoCo regs unquestionably matter in its unincorporated jurisdiction. But would Houston regulations trump MoCo’s inside its ETJ? Would new statewide codes trump Houston’s?

Depending on the answers, the Scarborough property could become uneconomical to develop. At that point, other SJFPG recommendations could come into play. But more on those in subsequent posts.

In the meantime, if you haven’t yet signed the petition against Scarborough’s development, please do so now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/2/2026

3321 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood Planning Group Lists Recommendations for San Jacinto Basin

10/1/26 – The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group has issued a list of recommendations for the river basin. The draft recommendations are intended for the next statewide flood plan. The 36 recommendations fall in three categories:

Legislative (12)
Administrative and Regulatory (16)
Flood Planning (8)

To see the complete five-page list, click here. It shows more detailed explanations than the summary below.

Legislative Recommendations

Legislative recommendations focus primarily on funding and regulatory authority.

L1 – Provide recurring funding for the Flood Infrastructure Fund
L2 – Establish state dedicated drainage funding, rather than relying solely on federal funding.
L3 – Provide counties with legislative authority to establish drainage utilities and assess drainage fees to assist in the implementation and long-term maintenance and repair of drainage and flood risk reduction projects
L4 – Update current statewide building codes with appropriate freeboard or higher flood standards
L5 – Establish and fund a levee safety program
L6 – Fund Regional Flood Planning Groups between planning cycles
L7 – Clarify and expand county regulatory authority for floodplain management, land-use planning, waterway setbacks, permitting, and management of new development in unincorporated areas
L8 – Develop and fund repair programs that assist owners of aging dams
L9 – Expand funding for flood early warning systems, stream gages, low-water crossing safety improvements, flood-hazard signage, gates, and roadway warning systems
L10 – Provide funding and incentives for conservation easements, land conservation, restoration, riparian protection, wetland protection, and landowner stewardship practices in flood-prone areas
L11 – Expand or create grant programs for ongoing operations and maintenance of existing flood mitigation, drainage, culvert, and natural infrastructure assets. (Most funding prioritizes new assets.)
L12 – Support creation, consolidation, or reorganization of regional flood authorities, flood-control districts, river authority programs, drainage districts where broader regional coordination is needed.

Most of these seem like common sense. Some have been attempted before. For instance, State Rep. Dennis Paul has tried several times to get a river-basin-wide flood control district. However, his bill failed because some local authorities, like Adrian Garcia, fear loss of control.

Regulatory and Administrative Recommendations

These focus mainly on technical and human issues below the state level.

A1 – Convert Base Level Engineering (BLE) data into regulatory information or detailed Flood Insurance Rate Maps.
A2 – Develop model floodplain ordinances for General Law Cities, i.e., those with populations under 5000.
A3 – Promote public education and outreach regarding flood awareness, preparedness, flood-prone areas, and the importance of protecting floodplains.
A4 – Educate floodplain managers with low-cost online resources. Many managers in smaller Texas cities and counties have the title without the education.
A5 – Develop state incentives for local governments to participate in the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Community Rating System (CRS) program. CRS exceeds minimum requirements of NFIP and will help achieve state flood plan requirements.
A6 – Establish a publicly available statewide database to track flood-related fatalities
A7 – Help smaller jurisdictions prepare flood-grant applications by making the process easier
A8 – Model future flood conditions uniformly across the state
A9 – Reduce barriers that hinder jurisdictions from partnering to provide regional flood-mitigation solutions.
A10 – Promote nature-based solutions, green infrastructure, floodplain preservation, conservation, and hybrid gray/green approaches
A11 – Establish statewide building standards for minimum finished-floor elevations above the 500-year floodplain
A12 – Incentivize voluntary buyouts for repetitively flooded properties and turn them into green space
A13 – Require TXDoT to build roads above the Atlas 14/100-year floodplain or else the pre-existing 500-year floodplain
A14 – Improve methods for measuring and documenting flood damages, including uninsured losses, actual flooded structures, financial damages, agricultural damages, and industrial losses, rather than just relying on flood-insurance claims which undercount damages and economic consequences.
A15 – Support multi-jurisdictional cooperation at the evaluation, strategy and project levels.
A16 – Clarify roles and responsibilities for floodplain management in extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) areas to reduce gaps or overlaps in responsibility for floodplain management, permitting, and drainage standards.

Flood-Planning Recommendations

These aim to help Regional Flood-Planning groups by changing or clarifying the rules under which they operate.

F1 – Clarify what constitutes an “emergency.” Regional flood plans must indicate whether a flood-control solution meets and emergency need – without defining emergency. This results in inconsistency across the state.
F2 – Simplify requirements for flood-mitigation projects. Don’t automatically eliminate projects missing a benefit/cost analysis (BCA), for instance, during the planning phase if the BCA can be supplied early in the design phase.
F3 – Revise scoring criteria for projects that benefit agriculture so they can compete with urban projects
F4 – Eliminate bias against lower-population rural areas in scoring of projects
F5 – Likewise, eliminate scoring bias against nature-based flood-solutions with stand-alone metrics for their evaluation.
F6 – Reduce future flood risk by prioritizing projects that improve FEMA floodplain maps and Base-Flood Elevations.
F7 – Improve flood-risk identification by incorporating first-finished-floor elevations and better population-at-risk methods. Many living spaces are elevated above base-flood levels.
F8 – Simplify the flood-plan amendment process. Let newly developed projects be amended into regional flood plans between full planning cycles.

Grappling with Unknown Flood Risk

Right now, about 20% of the Texas population lives in a mapped floodplain.

Residential bldgs in Texas 1 % floodplains from state flood plan. — *Residential buildings in Texas 1% Annual Chance Floodplains*. From 2023 Texas State Flood Plan.

But many people face flood risk they may not realize they have. Current FEMA flood maps resemble a patchwork quilt that incorporates risk studies taken by different groups using different technologies at different points in time. And many streams remain unmapped.

Uniformly updating flood risk maps will likely increase the percentage of the population living in floodplains. In areas with outdated or incomplete maps, residents may face risks revealed by newer rainfall data and hydraulic modeling.

Adopting all these recommendations will go a long way toward protecting the public from future floods and filling the readiness gaps that exist across the river basin and state. Without accurate diagnosis of problems, we will never arrive at viable solutions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/1/2026

3320 Days since Harvey