Even if you don’t believe in climate change, the way the National Hurricane Center (NHC) covers tropical weather will change this year. Until now, NHC began issuing regular tropical weather outlooks on June 1st. Now they will start two weeks earlier.
The actual start date of the Atlantic basin hurricane season will remain June 1, but this is also being looked at for changes to an earlier start date in future years.
Hurricane Harvey at its peak intensity in August of 2017 as it came ashore in Texas. Photo courtesy of NOAA.
Text of NHC Press Release
“In order to provide more frequent information on the potential for tropical cyclone formation as the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the National Hurricane Center will begin routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the Graphical TWO at 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) May 15, 2021.”
“Given recent increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin in late May, routine issuance of the Atlantic TWO starting on May 15 offers a service improvement over unscheduled Special TWOs that are issued to discuss the possibility of tropical cyclone formation prior to the official start of hurricane season on June 1.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/23/21 based on information from the National Hurricane Center
1302 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Harvey-Peak-Intensity.jpg?fit=1500%2C843&ssl=18431500adminadmin2021-03-23 13:25:162021-03-23 13:25:20National Hurricane Center Starting Tropical Weather Outlooks Two Weeks Earlier
Twenty-four hours ago, Hurricane Delta was simply potential tropical cyclone #26. As of 8 P.M. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center indicated #26 had progressed from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane in 24 hours. By tomorrow night, Delta should become a major hurricane as it crosses the resort areas on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will de-intensify before it makes landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.
Winds Could Increase from 75 to 120 mph
Low wind sheer and warm waters in the northwest Caribbean will allow rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The storm already has sustained winds of 75 mph. NHC gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. That’s roughly another 40 to 45 mph.
Track Shifts Slightly West
The NHC has shifted the track envelope westward over today, bringing the storm closer to Houston, though we are still slightly outside the cone.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Force Winds Currently Extend 70 miles From Center
NHC expects additional rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Delta, they say, should become a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
At this point, the Houston area has a 10-30% probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from Delta.
Louisiana to Western Florida Faces Largest Danger
NHC advises, “Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.”
Impact to Texas Coast?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says, “Swells will be increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by mid week with heights increasing into the 5-10 foot range by Wednesday. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast. Current projections indicate 1.0-1.5 feet above normal levels at times of high tides Thursday and Friday. This is subject to change based on the intensity and wind field of Delta over the central and NW Gulf late this week.”
While SE TX is currently outside the “error cone” and direct impacts appear unlikely, Lindner says that its important to closely monitor forecasts for any changes in the track.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 9PM on Monday, 10/5/2020based on data from the NHC and HCFCD
1133 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/234234.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-10-05 21:01:382020-10-05 21:17:11Delta Explodes into Hurricane; Should Become Major Hurricane by Wednesday; Track Shifts Slightly West
The center of Beta is currently near Bay City and moving ENE. For the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts maximum winds at 30 mph.
If any readers in the Lake Houston Area felt left out by Beta, tonight could be your night. According to the NHC, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and Space City Weather, models continue to show that a heavy band of rainfall will begin to develop over the next few hours across the northern portions of Harris County.
Beta Tuesday evening at 5PM, courtesy of RadarScope. The bands are moving from SE to NW. But the forward motion of the storm is perpendicular, from SW to NE. That could push new feeder bands into the Lake Houston Area later tonight.
Current Radar Trends Show Storm Moving Toward Northeast Harris County
“Current radar trends show what may be the start of this banding feature from Downtown Houston to Jersey Village to Waller where a broken band of heavy to excessive rainfall is forming,” said Lindner at 4pm today.
He continued, “Models show this band continuing well into the evening and overnight hours across much of northern and northeastern Harris County into Liberty County. Training of heavy rainfall is likely with this banding along with flash flooding.”
Additional rainfall of 4-7 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Harris County into Liberty County and possibly southern Montgomery County with isolated totals of 10-12 inches possible.
JEFF LINDNER, HARRIS COUNTY METEOROLOGIST
(Update At 9:10 PM) The radar image above looked like this and heavy rain had started in Kingwood.
Source: RadarScope
However, in the upper San Jacinto Watershed, the expected rainfall amounts will likely produce flooding only on Cypress and Little Cypress Creeks.
In other parts of Houston, the following streams could flood:
Greens Bayou
Halls Bayou
Hunting Bayou
White Oak Bayou tributaries
Cedar Bayou
Gum Gully
Langham Creek
Horsepen Creek
South Mayde Creek
Bear Creek
The largest threat at this point is street flooding. So move your cars out of the street tonight.
West Fork Still At Normal Level
At 4PM CDT Tuesday, the West Fork San Jacinto at US59 is still nearly seven feet from coming out of its banks.
Flood Warning System Shows Effects of Heavy Training
The high rainfall gradient across Harris County should the effects of heavy training by Beta’s feeder bands during the last 48 hours. Places under the bands received 12 to 14 inches of rains. Meanwhile, the Lake Houston Area received only around an inch so far.
Beta’s heaviest rainfall until now focused on SW Harris County. Figures shown represent last 48 hours.Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.Note 13.44 inches on HW288!
Worst Likely Over for SW Harris County
Some heavy rainfall is still possible in already hard-hit southern and southwestern Harris County. However, where and potentially how much may fall in that area is uncertain.
Beta Continuing to Weaken
High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken.
Cloud tops only extend up to 25,000- 30,000 ft, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, they are quite prodigious rain-producers. Rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far.
The Future of Beta
Since Beta should remain inland throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta should degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner.
At 4 p.m. Tuesday, September 22, 2020, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its last update on Beta.
Said Space City Weather, “The good news is that this mess will begin to clear our of here by Wednesday morning, if not sooner for some areas. The bad news is that we’ve got to get through later today and tonight.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 based on data from HCFCD, NHC and Space City Weather
1120 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screen-Shot-2020-09-22-at-5.15.09-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C759&ssl=17591200adminadmin2020-09-22 17:19:482020-09-22 21:18:04Lake Houston Area Could Be in Beta’s Crosshairs Tonight
Tropical Storm Beta moved inland last night around 10 p.m. The center is now near Victoria and moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Beta will weaken and stall today, but will then begin to move slowly toward the Houston Area tonight. They expect forward speed to increase Wednesday through Friday.
At the moment, maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 47 mph were recently reported at Victoria, Texas. But at the moment, my wind gage is reading ZERO here in Kingwood.
Yesterday’s Heaviest Rains Narrowly Missed Lake Houston Area
Yesterday’s heaviest rainfall narrowly missed us. While the Lake Houston Area received around an inch of rain, the southwest corner of Loop 610 received 11.64 inches due to a training feeder band.
The main threat today to the Lake Houston Area is having a similar feeder band train over us.
Below are the two-day storm totals so far for Beta in Harris County.
For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected.
Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring south and west of the Lake Houston Area and will continue today.
RadarScope image as of 6:30 a.m. CDT on 9/22/2020. Center of storm located over Victoria in lower left.
Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Track
Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas should begin moving eastward and scoop Beta up. That will cause the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours.
After that time, Beta will likely turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours before it reaches the Lake Houston Area. It will become a remnant low in 2-3 days.
Tornadoes
A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.
Surf
Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Winds
It is unlikely we will see tropical storm strength winds in the Lake Houston Area.
Winds will increase today as Beta moves in our direction. But Beta is barely at tropical storm strength now and is weakening. The most likely arrival time for the heaviest winds: tonight at 8 p.m.
Flash-Flooding Potential
A flash flooding event is in progress over Harris County. “Numerous roadways are flooded. Avoid travel.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
At this time (8am Tuesday, 9/22/2020), the main problem areas are south and west of Houston near the coast. However, that could change as the storm moves toward us.
Channel Status in Harris County. Green means “within banks.” Yellow means “flooding possible.” Red means “flooding likely.”
See data on the problem areas below.
Harris County Flood Control District – Hydrologic Operations Division Rain and Channel Status Report at 09/22/2020 07:30 AM ============================================
Maximum Rainfall the last 1hr 1.56 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard 1.4 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue 1.24 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288 1.16 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288 1.04 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
Maximum Rainfall the last 6hrs 5.72 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road 5.0 inches – Gage 2265 @ 2265 Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd 4.56 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue 4.6 inches – Gage 2260 @ 2260 Buffalo Bayou @ San Felipe Drive 4.48 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard 4.4 inches – Gage 2270 @ 2270 Buffalo Bayou @ West Beltway 8 4.44 inches – Gage 2255 @ 2255 Briar Branch @ Campbell Road 4.52 inches – Gage 420 @ 420 Brays Bayou @ South Main Street
Maximum Rainfall the last 24hrs 11.04 inches – Gage 180 @ 180 Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road 11.0 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288 10.88 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard 10.56 inches – Gage 445 @ 445 Willow Water Hole @ Landsdowne Drive 10.36 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road 10.12 inches – Gage 175 @ 175 Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway 10.12 inches – Gage 380 @ 380 Sims Bayou @ Hiram Clark Rd 9.96 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue 9.92 inches – Gage 150 @ 150 Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive 9.84 inches – Gage 145 @ 145 Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road 9.8 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288 9.6 inches – Gage 460 @ 460 Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road 9.4 inches – Gage 105 @ 105 Marys Creek @ Winding Road 9.44 inches – Gage 360 @ 360 Sims Bayou @ Martin Luther King Road 8.68 inches – Gage 135 @ 135 Clear Creek @ FM 2351 8.56 inches – Gage 465 @ 465 Brays Bayou @ Beltway 8 8.36 inches – Gage 115 @ 115 Cowart Creek @ Baker Road 8.28 inches – Gage 140 @ 140 Turkey Creek @ FM 1959
Stream Water Surface Elevation Data
Out of Banks: Gage 110 @ Clear Creek @ I-45 Gage 120 @ Clear Creek @ FM 528 Gage 130 @ Clear Creek @ Bay Area Boulevard Gage 135 @ Clear Creek @ FM 2351 Gage 145 @ Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road Gage 175 @ Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway Gage 180 @ Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road Gage 610 @ Taylors Bayou @ Shoreacres Boulevard Gage 2150 @ South Mayde @ Greenhouse Road
Near Bankfull: Gage 100 @ Clear Lake 2nd Outlet @ SH 146 Gage 140 @ Turkey Creek @ FM 1959 Gage 150 @ Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive Gage 160 @ Beamer Ditch @ Hughes Road Gage 170 @ Clear Creek @ Nassau Bay Gage 190 @ Clear Creek @ SH 288 Gage 200 @ Taylor Lake @ Nasa Road 1 Gage 410 @ Brays Bayou @ Lawndale Street Gage 420 @ Brays Bayou @ South Main Street Gage 430 @ Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road Gage 440 @ Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue Gage 460 @ Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road Gage 480 @ Keegans Bayou @ Roark Road Gage 710 @ San Jacinto River @ Rio Villa Gage 720 @ San Jacinto River @ US 90 Gage 740 @ Lake Houston @ FM 1960 Gage 1610 @ Greens Bayou @ Normandy Street Gage 1720 @ Cedar Bayou @ SH 146 Gage 2115 @ Langham Creek @ Clay Rd Gage 2210 @ Buffalo Bayou @ Turning Basin Gage 2253 @ Buttermilk Creek @ Moorberry Lane Gage 2255 @ Briar Branch @ Campbell Road Gage 2265 @ Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd
Key Messages
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 at 8am based on data from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, Harris County Flood Warning System and RadarScope
1120 Days After Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screen-Shot-2020-09-22-at-6.20.22-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=16381200adminadmin2020-09-22 08:07:012020-09-22 08:23:09Beta Stalling Onshore Around Victoria; Will Start Moving Toward Houston Tonight
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist noted at 1:35 PM that a feeder band of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Beta is moving from northern Brazoria and northern Galveston Counties into southern Harris and Fort Bend Counties.
Lindner says that “rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible under this band for the next 1-2 hours. This may lead to street flooding in typical areas of poor drainage.” Rates above 2 inches per hour will generally flood streets.
According to Space City Weather, currently, it looks like these storms may produce 2 to 3 inches of rain total as they slowly progress northward, so they could impact the afternoon and evening commute home.
At its 1 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm weakened this morning. Sustained winds dropped from 50 to 45 mph. The storm’s central pressure also rose from 996 to 999 mb, another sign of weakening. Welcome signs!
Heavy Rainfall From Training Feeder Bands Will Continue
Heavy rainfall threat in bands to the east and northeast of the center will continue into tonight and Tuesday. “This threat will not subside until the center of the circulation is east of the area on Wednesday,” says Lindner.
Lindner further expects “No significant changes to the rainfall totals. Amounts of 4-8 inches are most likely with isolated higher amounts. But these higher totals will likely be strongly correlated to training feeder bands.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/21/2020 based on data from the National Hurricane Center, Space City Weather and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Feeder-Band.jpg?fit=1500%2C977&ssl=19771500adminadmin2020-09-21 14:32:342020-09-21 14:32:56Beta Feeder Band Could Dump 1-2″ Per Hour; Street Flooding Possible
As of 10:00 a.m. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) still shows the center of Tropical Storm Beta located offshore. The latest forecasts from the NHC predict that Beta will move onshore near Matagorda Bay, then move up the coastline toward League City.
The NHC also advises that the storm has picked up speed. Yesterday, they estimated 3 mph; today 7 mph.
No one seems to predict that the storm will intensify before landfall.
“Dry air continues to work into and wrap around the large wind field of Beta yielding the disorganized precipitation field with the system.”
Lake Houston Area is the blue dot in the center of the swirl. Red line is predicted path of Beta.Source: Weather Live.
Main Threat: Storm Surge
At this time, Beta’s main threat is to the coastline through storm surge. “Tides are currently running 4.0-4.5 feet in Clear Lake and across coastal sections of Harris County with several sites near the Gulf beaches running 4.0-4.5 feet. Coastal flooding is ongoing and will continue for much of the day. Several roadways are underwater along the coast and around Galveston Bay,” says Lindner.
Lindner continues, “As Beta makes landfall along the middle Texas coast later today, the storm will begin to slow and then turn ENE toward the upper TX coast. It will slowly weaken along the way. This track will keep onshore flow along the upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday. Tides will remain high into the high tide tonight. Impacts along the coast will continue through the day and into tonight and likely Tuesday.”
Wind Forecast
The most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds, if we get them, is later tonight.
Tropical storm force winds already cover a large part of the mid-Texas coast.
The storm will weaken as it moves toward the Houston Area and turn into a tropical depression. The further north you live from the coastline, the less intense winds will be.
Depending on where you live in Houston, you have a 30% to 100% chance of experiencing topical storm force winds. The Lake Houston Area is on the low end of that range. The National Weather Service predicts that the Lake Houston Area has a chance of seeing 39-57 mph winds. But Spaces City Weather advises that Beta is “not a significant wind threat.”
However, note that tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the storm.
Galveston has reported sustained winds of 39 mph and a gust of 43 mph during the past couple of hours.
Rainfall
Dry air has worked into the circulation of Beta, according to Lindner. “This has resulted in a more disorganized and scattered rainfall pattern. However, the system is still capable of heavy rainfall especially near the center later today and in bending structures east of the center for the next 48 hours.”
Models show several banding features developing during the next 48 hours over SE TX, But little consensus exists on where the heaviest rainfall totals may be.
Lindner advises that, “Given that much of the area will reside on the eastern side of a the tropical system, we should keep some level of concern of heavy rainfall and flooding in place through the next 48 hours.”
Lindner predicts that widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be possible for areas along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 10-12 inches under any training feeder bands. Totals to the north of I-10 will likely average 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 6-7 inches.
However, the NHC predicts slightly less rain. See the map below.
As long as the rainfall spreads out over the next 48 hours, most of the creeks and bayous can handle the expected rainfall amounts, Lindner says. But should any training develop, flash flooding would be possible.
Watches and Warnings in Effect
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana. That includes Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. That includes the Lake Houston Area.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
Lindner, the NHC and NWS all warn that tornadoes remain a threat with this storm. Especially, tonight and Tuesday.
Track
Yesterday, models predicted that Beta would track up US59 toward the Humble/Kingwood Area. However, today, forecasters think the storm will track closer to the coast. They put it on a line toward League City.
Wind shear will keep Beta’s track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone’s intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours.
Summary
Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible, but the danger is “slight.”
Net: Beta is still a threat. But it may be less of one than yesterday. That’s because of the dry air folding into the system and wind sheer which seem to be weakening it somewhat. Be hopeful, but cautious. Expect several inches of rain and high winds in the next two days with both tapering off Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/2020 at noon based on data from NHC, NWS, Jeff Lindner, Space City Weather and Weather Live
1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screenshot-2020-09-21-at-11.37.19-AM-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-09-21 11:46:032020-09-21 11:52:04Beta Moving Ashore Today Then Likely Tracking Slightly South of Houston
As of 4am Saturday, 9/19/20 (the 1-year anniversary of Imelda), the National Hurricane Center issued:
Hurricane Watches for Texas coast from Port Aransas to High Island
Tropical Storm Watches east of High Island into Louisiana and from Port Aransas to the Rio Grande
Storm Surge Watches from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including all inland bays.
Discussion
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time and create life-threatening storm surge.
Lake Friday, a USAF mission found a stronger tropical storm with winds of 60mph and a fairly large area of 40-50mph winds. Ships and oil platforms in the north-central Gulf of Mexico have reported winds above 40mph. The wind field is starting to expand toward the north.
Track:
Beta is moving NNE at 12mph. Faster than expected. Beta will turn west around mid-day Saturday and decrease forward speed into early next week. This will bring Beta toward the middle Texas coast.
As Beta approaches the mid TX coast, weakening high pressure to the north will turn the storm toward the north and northeast. However, forecasters have lower-than-normal confidence as to when all this will happen.
The current National Hurricane Center forecast track is near the center of consensus for major global models, but shifts in this track will remain possible both toward the north or south.
Intensity:
Beta intensified despite wind shear. As Beta moves over very warm western Gulf of Mexico waters, intensification will likely continue for the 24-48 hours. NHC now forecasts Beta to become an 80mph hurricane. As Beta begins to turn northeast and skirt the middle and upper TX coast, the storm may weaken. Some uncertainty remains in the intensity forecast.
Tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the middle TX coast Sunday evening and spread northward into Matagorda Bay and along the upper TX coast by Monday. Hurricane conditions could reach the Matagorda Bay region on Tuesday.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Water level rises along the upper TX coast will begin on Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind field. This large wind field will also develop large swells over the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into Monday with swells reaching 15-25 feet. On Sunday into Monday, expect 4-8 feet waves breaking on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of elevated tides.
Large waves will accompany the higher tides. The prolonged nature of the event will result in significant beach erosion and damage to fragile dunes.
Expect inundation of low lying roads near the coast. Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted.
For SE Harris County:
From Saturday night into next week, coastal flooding will be possible in El Lago, Nassau Bay, Shoreacres, Seabrook and portions of Baytown near Goose Creek and Cedar Bayou.
This includes all areas around:
Clear Lake
Along Taylor’s Bayou in Shoreacres and Taylor Lake Village
Around the San Jacinto Monument and Lynchburg Ferry landing
In Seabrook areas along and east of Toddville Rd and in the waterfront area east of HWY 146.
The lower San Jacinto River at Rio Villa and other low lying areas south of US HWY 90.
Low lying areas in Galena Park and Jacinto City near the Houston Ship Channel
Lower portions of Greens and Hunting Bayous south of I-10.
Most flooding will happen in streets, low marsh lands, roads near Galveston Bay and around Clear Lake and some subdivisions streets.
Wave action from ENE/E winds across Galveston Bay of 2-4 feet will be possible on top of these tides along the west side of Galveston Bay and 1-3 feet in Clear Lake which may damage docks, bulkheads, and moored vessels.
Rainfall
Rainfall will strongly depend on the track of Beta. Small changes could result in significant differences in rainfall amounts. Heaviest rains will likely be near the coast and offshore.
Any deviation of the track northward would bring the heavy rainfall further inland, likewise any south or east shift in the track would keep the heaviest rains off the coast.
Coast: 8-12 inches
Coastal counties: 6-8 inches
South of I-10: 4-6 inches
South of Hwy 105: 3-5 inches
North of Hwy 105: 1-3 inches
HCFCD models suggest that basin average rainfall totals of at least 6 inches would fill smaller creeks and bayous in Harris County (Willow Waterhole, Keegans Bayou, Willow Creek, Upper Little Cypress Creek).
Basin average amounts of 7-8 inches would fill Clear Creek, Hunting Bayou, Armand Bayou, Cypress Creek, Halls Bayou, Greens Bayou, White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou, Cedar Bayou, and various smaller tributaries.
Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds may start Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay. Sustained 40mph winds likely spread northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay.
Hurricane conditions will be possible near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday and across portions of coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties into Wednesday.
Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-50mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020at 4ambased on data from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Tropical Storm Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/image003.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2020-09-19 04:20:102020-09-19 04:23:40Hurricane Watch for Port Aransas to High Island
Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Beginnow for Tropical Storm Beta.
As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
Forecast Track
Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.
Cone of uncertainty for TS Beta. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of receiving a hit from the center of the storm.
Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet
Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.
Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…
…Houston will likely be on the wet/dirty side of the storm.
10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston
The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.
Probability of Houston receiving winds greater than 40 mph is 10-20%.Those winds could arrive as early as Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
Key Messages
According to the National Hurricane Center:
Beta should strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.
Impacts
Tides/Storm Surge:
Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.
Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast.
Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.
DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time
Rainfall:
Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts 4-6 inches over Harris County.
These rainfall amounts will likely change
Winds:
Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205430_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-18 17:36:062020-09-18 17:36:17Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just upgraded Tropical Depression 19 to Tropical Storm Sally. And they will likely upgrade it again to a Hurricane on Monday.
Miami and Tampa Bay radar currently show a defined center of circulation and deep convection across much of Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking seven storms lined up in the Atlantic.
Sally’s Likely Landfall in Louisiana
Sally’s cone of uncertainty no longer extends as far west as Houston. For now. See below.
On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Sally will then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane Predicted
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sally will likely become a hurricane by late Monday. (Note how the S’s turn to H’s in the cone map above.)
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center.
Intensity guidance is inching up some. Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico make a hurricane likely at landfall. “In fact,” says the NHC, “the hurricane models show significant intensification of Sally. This will need to be closely monitored over the next 1-2 days.”
Rainfall
Florida
Sally should produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to Tampa Bay.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across Southern and Central Florida.
Central Gulf
Through Tuesday, NHC expects Sally to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast between Florida and SE Louisiana. NHC predicts 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Flooding Likely
NHC says, “This is expected to be a slow-moving system. Sally will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Nearly all guidance slows Sally to around 5mph as the system approaches the coast. That will result in prolonged impacts and potentially devastating amounts of rainfall.” Remember Harvey?
Stay Alert
Even though Houston is outside of the cone of uncertainty today, stay alert. Remember how the tracks of Marco and Laura kept shifting hourly. The NHC cautions that “The average NHC track error at 96 hours is around 150 miles. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2020
1110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/two_atl_2d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-09-12 15:22:122020-09-12 15:22:53TD 19 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally
After a week of worry! After adrenaline-fueled prep for two back-to-back hurricanes that could have wreaked havoc on Houston…I woke up refreshed this morning, walked to my weather window, and saw…nothing unusual. What happened? I checked my weather gauge. It read 0.00 inches of rain. Max winds since midnight: 3 mph.
It would appear the Houston Area dodged Laura’s silver bullet. But why? According to Harris County Meteorologist, Jeff Linder, two things spared us the wrath of Laura. First, Laura shifted slightly east. Second, as Laura intensified, the wind field pulled in tighter. That diminished feeder bands on the western side of the storm.
How Close Laura Came
Here are some radar and satellite images that show how close the storm came.
From Weather Live App at 5:55 am Thursday 8/27/2020
From the National Hurricane Centerat 5:56 am. Houston is the bright spot on the SW side of the swirl.
From the National Weather Service at 1:53 CDT as Laura came ashore.
From Lake Charles Louisiana radar at 12:46 am CDT. (This and following images from RadarScope Pro app.)
The shot above and the radar loop below show dramatically how the storm shifted east last night. The National Hurricane Center had predicted eye of the storm to move up the Sabine River near Port Arthur, about 40 miles west.
Radar Loop showing Laura coming onshore that started at 11:28pm 8/26/2020.
Little Rock, Arkansas radar at 5:41 am CDT as Laura approaches
HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…
CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING…
Fort Polk, Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT…1100 UTC…
INFORMATION
LOCATION…30.9N 93.3W ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…964 MB…28.47 INCHES
Hurricane Guilt
After Hurricane Rita, which dodged Houston like Laura, I coined a term called “hurricane guilt.” It’s that feeling of elation you get when you realize the storm missed you…followed closely by the realization that it destroyed innocent lives elsewhere.
That’s what I feel right now. As I write this, the sun is rising and birds are singing. Soon images of Laura’s destruction will start to pour in. Only then will we know how lucky we were.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6:45 am on 8/27/2020 based on information from NWS, NHC, RadarScope, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
1094 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Laura-Wide-Shot-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-08-27 06:54:342020-08-27 07:33:07How Close Was Laura?
