11/2/25 – Hurricane Melissa disappeared off the tracking charts yesterday. And when it did, one of the most powerful storms in recorded history went into the history books.
Many things made Melissa unusual and stunned meteorologists. They included the storm’s deep pressure, high winds, rapid intensification, death toll, destruction, and its timing within the hurricane season.
And all of that happened in a season that has, so far, spared the U.S. mainland from any landfalling hurricanes.
A Normal Season
Usually, the Atlantic Hurricane season is largely over by the end of October.
One tropical storm, but no hurricanes have hit the US mainland so far this year.
In May this year, NOAA predicted an above average season with 13-19 named storms, of which 6-10 would become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes.
So far, we’ve had 13 named storms. Five became hurricanes, four of which reached major hurricane strength. See below.
Why So Strong, So Late?
First, we had very warm waters in the Caribbean – 1.9ºC to 2.8ºC above average for the region and season. That’s up to 5º F warmer than average.
More importantly: the warm layer extended to depth — meaning the storm could churn up deeper water without encountering cooler up-welled water that normally weakens storms.
Second, reduced wind sheer and steering currents caused it to meander slowly. This helped it sit over very warm waters while enhancing its strength.
Melissa underwent two rounds of rapid intensification, including a gain of ~70 mph in 24 hours — an “extreme rapid intensification” event. Because water was abnormally warm for that late in the season, and other inhibiting factors were low, the conditions aligned for a major hurricane even though the calendar was later.
Sea surface temperatures ordinarily decline and atmospheric conditions become less favorable this late in the season. But not this year. So, Melissa could reach peak strength even in late October. Some scientists hypothesize that climate change may have played a role. Others believe it was just the random confluence of favorable factors.
Warm water is necessary but not sufficient to create a major hurricane. In this case, the atmosphere cooperated, which is part of why Melissa could intensify so late and so rapidly.
Typically by late October, conditions become less favorable for hurricane formation (cooler oceans, increasing shear, etc.).
ABC News reported that at least two hurricane-hunter aircraft had to turn back from Hurricane Melissa due to extreme turbulence: one from the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and another from NOAA.
Melissa’s Eye. U.S. Air Force photo by Lt. Col. Mark Withee on Oct. 27, 2025.
Melissa made landfall in Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph, tying it for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall by wind speed. (Wikipedia+4AP News+4CBS News+4).
A scientist from the University of Miami onboard the Hurricane Hunter recorded a spot wind gust of 252 MPH. If verified, it will be the highest speed ever recorded in a tropical cyclone by a dropsonde. That rivals winds in EF5 tornadoes!
Melissa also recorded a central pressure of 892 mb, tying the record for third‐lowest minimum central pressure in the Atlantic basin. (CT Insider+1).
So far, Melissa is the strongest tropical cyclone of any kind worldwide in 2025.
USA Today reported today that the storm left more than 60 people dead in Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/25
2987 Days since Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251102-Melissas-Eye.jpg?fit=1100%2C818&ssl=18181100adminadmin2025-11-02 20:30:042025-11-02 20:30:05How Could Hurricane Melissa Get So Strong So Late in the Season?
11/1/2025 – On 10/28/25, members of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force received a brief presentation about how flood-mitigation projects get prioritized by Harris County.
Below are several key slides from “Overview & History of the 2018 Bond Program’s Prioritization Framework.”
How Prioritization Started
Before the 2018 bond election on the anniversary of Hurricane Harvey, language was inserted into the proposal that voters went on to approve. Specifically, note Paragraph 14G. It called for developing a process for the “equitable expenditure of funds.”
Another year later, the county (under the guise of Harris Thrives) adopted two resolutions. The first instructed Harris County Flood Control District to adopt a framework for the equitable expenditure of Bond Program funds. The second set up a community-based Task Force.
“Harris Thrives” is the name of a resilience strategy adopted by Harris County after Harvey. It claims to be a “fast, fair, smart” approach to flood control, but also includes housing. Specifically it claims the county will be:
Fast: Cutting through red tape to complete flood-control projects quickly.
Fair: Prioritizing projects to help the most people as efficiently as possible, while ensuring vulnerable communities are never left behind.
Smart: Relying on science, technology, and data as a guide to be more proactive about how mitigation, preparation, and recovery.
Broad: Including programs for housing recovery, emergency preparedness, and community engagement.
Admirable goals. But it appears that Harris Thrives’ website has not been updated since February 2023, despite a promise to update it quarterly at that time. Only history and the Freedom of Information Act will tell us whether the county achieved those goals.
How Prioritization Framework Evolved
The Framework has gone through several iterations over time as commissioners’ priorities have changed.
After Harvey, the focus was speed.
Two years later, the focus was prioritizing certain projects and de-emphasizing others.
Five years later, the focus became tweaking the framework to ensure dollars went where commissioners wanted.
Six years later, commissioners asked HCFCD to rank projects already initiated into quartiles to ensure pet projects could be fully funded.
Eight years later, it became clear there wasn’t enough money to do all the projects promised in the flood bond. So commissioners voted to focus on projects in the top quartile.
Under previous management, HCFCD updated the status of every project for every commissioners court meeting. And those updates were posted online.
But since a change in management and priorities in 2022, it has been hard to identify where projects, budgets, and construction stands. Bond updates became annual as projects slowed to a crawl.
The old, simple-but-effective text-based lists with GANTT charts have been replaced by a series of somewhat confusing dashboards that work occasionally and with mixed effectiveness in different browsers.
Clicking on the dots calls up information about the associated project. But gone are the old, intuitive Gantt charts that gave you timing, lifecycle, and status information at a glance.
Sigh. At least they’re trying. And in fairness, they are improving. The Microsoft PowerBI spending charts on the HCFCD Activity Page are a valuable addition, even though that information is updated quarterly.
Changing Priorities
Through the years, priorities changed. The presentation showed the current scoring matrix.
2022 scoring matrix
However, it did not show the scoring matrix in the original 2019 Prioritization Framework. See below.
2019 scoring matrix
Comparison shows that flood-risk reduction and partnership funding (combined weight of 35%) have been eliminated from consideration. In their place, population and housing density (aka project efficiency) have increased by a similar amount. That favors projects near the city center, but eliminates severity of flooding as a consideration, which is why the largest watershed in the county with the worst flooding has received only 2% of spending to date.
Eliminating partnership funding is a curious switch, too, especially since more than half of bond-project funding relies on matching partnership dollars.
Search on the tag “equity prioritization” in the search bar of this website.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/1/25
2986 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Prioritization-Priorities-scaled.png?fit=2560%2C1401&ssl=114012560adminadmin2025-11-01 16:22:312025-11-01 16:22:32Evolution of Harris County Flood-Project Prioritization
They told Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger that they had “letters of no objection” (LONOs) from the Montgomery County Engineer and Harris County Flood Control District. See the red box on the page below.
LONO stands for Letter of No Objection.
The phrasing of the text implies “approval.” However, reading the text of the actual letters suggests that huge concerns remain about the project.
“…additional analysis will be required incorporating a definitive land plan.”
Brian Clark, PE, Montgomery County Engineer
Clark goes on to say that the land plan must be approved before any construction for any portion of the development can be approved. In addition, he says that additional analysis and construction plans must address Montgomery County’s following concerns:
Significant potential for erosion under homes, roads, utilities and bridge(s)
Need for emergency access and rescue planning during floods
Potential for increased floodplain levels due to future upstream development, which could place the entire project in the 100-year floodplain. “This creates a high risk of future flood blight, negatively impacting the tax base and endangering future residents,” he said.
Page 2 contains a lengthy list of information still required:
Detailed drainage master plan including specific lot, street, and detention pond sizing and locations.
Master plan that includes a comprehensive, no-rise, floodplain analysis for the 5-, 10-, 100- and 500-year Atlas 14 peak flows, along with drawings that show proposed grading and the extent of floodplain encroachment.
Atlas-14, 500-year water elevations in all models
Adequate mitigation for any fill in the 100-year floodplain
Develop and implement robust erosion control measures and geotechnical studies to ensure the long-term stability of the development
Design bridge and road network to guarantee adequate emergency access during the Atlas-14, 500-year storm
Analyze the proposed bridge location and describe how the proposed bridge will accommodate the dynamic (shifting) nature of Spring Creek
Emergency access plans must be approved by the county before any plans for sections in the subdivision will be reviewed
Submit documents indicating Army Corps approval, including any mitigation the Corps requires
Complete environmental due diligence documentation pertaining to Endangered Species Act
Approval of bridge plans by Harris County Flood Control District showing no modification to the main stem of Spring Creek will be required before MoCo provides any future letters of no objection.
Pages 2 and 3 contain cautions about:
Data and calculations made in the preliminary drainage analysis
A conditional letter of map revision (CLOMR) must be approved by FEMA before the county can approve bridge construction plans
The limited nature of the LONO itself.
The letter closes with a warning:
“This memorandum does not guarantee that the ‘developable areas’ presented in the report will remain unchanged as more information becomes available.”
Brian Clark, PE, Montgomery County Engineer
That sounds like quite a mountain to climb! Especially since MoCo Precinct 3 Commissioner Rich Wheeler took the Townsen Blvd. Extension off the County’s 2025 Road Bond. Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, also vehemently opposes a bridge across Spring Creek. And the area upstream from this development is one of the fastest growing in the region…and the country, according to the Census Bureau.
Photos Make A More Compelling Case than Engineering Studies
Having spent years now studying how upstream development changes downstream assumptions about flooding, I hope this area does not get developed. Significant public safety concerns exist.
We should never forget what happened to Kingwood and Humble, and the I-69 and UnionPacific Railroad Bridges during Harvey.
Even if Scarborough/San Jacinto Preserve could build a bridge across Spring Creek, it would not form a reliable evacuation route in the event of another Harvey. Why? People coming south could be in floodwaters over their heads once they got off the bridge. See the pictures below.
Another view of Harvey at I-69. The Spring Creek bridge would come down in the flood, out of frame to the right.Water at this location reached 22 feet above flood stage.Townsen Road in Humble (center) where it crosses I-69. Photo courtesy of Harris County Flood Control District.I-69 during Harvey. Photo by Melinda Ray. So much for evacuation routes to the south.It took TXDoT almost a year to repair the I-69 bridge causing massive traffic jams on alternate routes.Harvey also destroyed the UnionPacific railroad bridge over the West Fork.
Even the I-45 and West Lake Houston Parkway bridges were damaged.
So, in my opinion, there is NO reliable evacuation route to the south. Period. End of story.
The developer can save his money on the engineering studies and cut his losses. The only way to salvage anything from this disaster-in-the-making is to donate the land to Texas Parks and Wildlife, take a tax deduction, and trumpet your concern for the environment.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/25
2985 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TS-Harvey-8-30-17-209.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=17681024adminadmin2025-10-31 17:53:272025-11-01 12:36:21Supposed “Letter of No Objection” to Floodplain Development Lists 3 Pages of Objections
10/30/25 – San Jacinto Preserve (aka Scarborough Development) presented new plans yesterday to the City of Houston District E Council Member Fred Flickinger and Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, for the development of 5,316 acres most of which is in floodplains or floodways. The land lies where Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Turkey Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork converge south of the Grand Parkway.
Meeting in Response to City’s Request for More Information
Council Member Flickinger and Commissioner Ramsey both had requested the City Planning Commission to defer approval of the new development by taking it off their consent agenda on 10/16/25 until the City could learn more.
General plan submitted to Houston Planning Commission didn’t show much detail.
In response, the District E office said the developer presented these two pages at the followup meeting on 10/29/25.
The first looks somewhat like a paisley shirt. The new plans show where homes and detention basins would be built, but they omit floodplain/floodway boundaries, streets and wetlands.
Note that the new plan still shows a proposed corridor for Townsen Road, which was taken off the Montgomery County 2025 Road Bond. It also shows a bridge across Spring Creek which Commissioner Ramsey previously (and strenuously) objected to.
The developer also presented the following summary sheet, designed to allay concerns. It says that out of the total 5,316 acres, only 2,012 are “intended” for development. 550 acres are set aside for detention and floodplain mitigation. And 2,754 acres are not “intended” for development – 52% of the total tract. See the pie chart below. Then compare the percentages to the map above.
My eye sees less green than gray in the map above. But the irregular shapes make it difficult to precisely quantify percentages. So, judge for yourself.
Troubling, Vague Language
The developer also presented this summary sheet along with the new plans.
Note that the Summary Sheet above uses words such as “intended,” “proposed,” and “limited.” They should raise red flags. They convey promises without legal obligations and beg for explanation that isn’t given.
But there may be an even bigger problem in the Summary Sheet. The developer claims it’s using updated flood maps. However, they don’t show the extent of floodplains and floodways. Nor do they show the difference between the existing and as-yet-unreleased new maps.
And note the reference to “wetlands mitigation credits.” That means they’re mitigating the wetlands they destroy, but doing it somewhere else, i.e., not on this site. So the mitigation may or may not help people in Humble, Kingwood and the Lake Houston Area. It all depends on where the credits are.
LONO References Demand Elaboration
The “LONO” references in the Summary Sheet stand for Letters of No Objection. They imply approval but mean something entirely different.
“LONO” is a formal statement issued by a regulatory authority to indicate that it has no objection to a proposed action, activity, or project — provided certain conditions are met and no specific approval is required under existing rules.
For instance, Harris County Flood Control District issued the LONO for a bridge across Spring Creek without seeing any plans. Such letters serve as an assurance during the early stages of a project that the regulator does not see a regulatory barrier. However, the letter does not relieve the applicant of responsibility for compliance with other requirements or liabilities that may arise.
I have not yet obtained a copy of the Montgomery County LONO, but have filed a FOIA request.
Much Green Space Could Not Be Developed Anyway
While the “52% green space” claim sounds like a concession to preservation and safety concerns, City of Houston regulations already prohibit building in floodplains and floodways without significant restrictions. And this land is almost ALL floodways and floodplains.
Floodplains shown by Ryko (the previous owner) in their drainage analysis.
Restrictions include:
Elevation of the first finished floor 2 feet above the 500-year flood elevation
Construction on stilts/piers to allow water to flow under the home without constricting the flow of water
A floodplain development permit
Flood insurance.
Such restrictions raise the price of building in such areas while lowering the demand, making development – and home ownership – much riskier.
From FEMA’s Base Flood Elevation Viewer.
At the southern end of the area, builders would have to raise homes 27.1 feet to comply with City of Houston regulations…if they could get a permit.
“Like Aiming a Fire Hose at Kingwood”
One of the most respected hydrologists in the region told ReduceFlooding.com that if that area got developed, it would be like “aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”
But the letter objecting to the study’s conclusions was later rescinded after it came under fire from MoCo Precinct 3 Commissioner James Noack. Noack was subsequently voted out of office by his constituents. The letter cited a “sincere concern for the safety of the public.” The risk of development was just too high, it said.
Leading Preservation Group Has Better Plan
The Bayou Land Conservancy, one of the leading conservation groups in the area, issued the following statement today after reviewing the plans above.
“Bayou Land Conservancy believes that the highest and best use of this entire tract is conservation that protects upstream and downstream communities from flooding, while preserving the quality of our drinking water.”
“Although the developer currently plans to set aside 52% of the available land with ‘no future plans of development,’ conservation easements would act as permanent protection of those areas and give the nearby community an assurance that they would remain green space forever.”
I couldn’t agree more. Just a mile downstream on the San Jacinto West Fork, townhomes in Forest Cove were flooded to the third floor. And some were swept off their foundations.
Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harveyone mile downstream from proposed developmenton West Fork.
Rather than make the public pay handsomely to buy out such properties after they flood, why not just keep the area natural?
The entire proposed development is laced with wetlands which act as natural sponges during floods.Proposed development photographed from a helicopter flying over the West Fork on 6/22/25.
All those trees create friction that reduces the speed of floodwaters coming into the Humble/Kingwood area. Removing them would increase the velocity of floodwaters that have already swept homes off their foundations.
Leaving this land natural would avoid future home damages and mitigation costs altogether. At a much lower cost to the public and unsuspecting home buyers.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/30/25
2984 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/San-Jacinto-Preserve-Plan-2.jpg?fit=2550%2C1650&ssl=116502550adminadmin2025-10-30 20:02:482025-10-31 13:17:24New Plans to Develop 5,316 Acres West of Kingwood Mostly in Floodplains, Floodways
10/29/25 – Contractors have begun placing rebar and pouring concrete for two giant, cast-in-place junction boxes on either side of the UnionPacific Railroad tracks that cross Northpark Drive. The junction boxes will connect drainage systems on both sides of the tracks.
Construction Roadblocks Eliminated
Unanticipated utility conflicts held up drainage work for months. And the drainage work needs to be completed before Loop 494 can be completed, Northpark surface lanes can be paved, and contractors can start work on the bridge over the tracks/Loop 494. So this is another significant milestone.
Once complete, the junction boxes will comprise a significant link that conveys excess stormwater from west of the tracks to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch on the east.
Pictures Supplied by Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority
The pictures below show the start of work in the first of the two pits.
Clean out of debris from the twin 5′ bores in anticipation of construction of the junction boxes.Contractors start with the bottoms. Then they will build the sides and top.Picture: 10/28/29.Smoothing the concrete and placing anchors for the sides.10/28/29
The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority anticipates completion of the boxes on both sides of the tracks by the end of the first week in November 2025, weather permitting.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/29/25
2983 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251029-Smoothing-Concrete-Junction-Box.png?fit=1063%2C1100&ssl=111001063adminadmin2025-10-29 21:21:022025-10-29 21:21:03Contractors Start Northpark Junction Boxes Next to Railroad Tracks
10/28/25 – Yilun Cheng and Matt Zdun, reporters for the Houston Chronicle, published an article this morning about the political donations of floodplain developers. It represents a new high-water mark in investigative journalism concerning Houston’s flooding problems.
Cheng and Zdun found $10.8 million in contributions from development interests to county judges and commissioners in Harris and Montgomery counties for the decade between January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2024. That works out to roughly a million dollars per year contributed to 10 people.
The article’s headline: “How officials approved tens of thousands of homes in Houston floodplains: ‘1,000 ways to rig the model.'” Their story’s preview link gives us a hint: “In Houston-area floodplain development, political donations beat science.”
The thrust of the article is how development interests have:
Influenced the very regulations that govern the industry
Tweaked model inputs to make developments look more desirable and their impacts less severe
Made huge political contributions to those who influence approval of their plans.
65,000 Homes built in Houston Floodplains since Harvey
Cheng previously published a blockbuster story about 65,000 homes built in Houston floodplains since Hurricane Harvey. Today, she delved into how that happened. She and her colleagues tracked the political donations of developers, homebuilders, engineers and their respective Political Action Committees (PACs) and trade associations.
For today’s article Cheng and Zdun focused mainly on Harris and Montgomery Counties, though Cheng interviewed people from the other surrounding counties and cities as well.
Research Challenges and Ensuring Data Quality
Such research is more difficult than it appears at first glance. Contributions often don’t appear under the name of a corporation on a government contract.
Rather, contributions often appear under the names of the corporation’s leaders, employees, and their family members. That adds extra layers of research and verification.
And multiple donations from the same individuals may appear in different forms. For instance, an individual might use his full name for one donation and a first initial for the next. That discourages automatic sorting.
So, Cheng and Zdun had to review contributions one by one. “Campaign finance filings vary greatly in quality,” they noted at the end of the article. “The same donor could be represented several different ways in filings, with different spellings, suffixes, titles and punctuation. Additionally, some county officials submitted handwritten filings, which complicated the data parsing.” Accidental? I think not.
The Chronicle standardized names across filings, removing extraneous suffixes, titles and punctuation through a process that involved substantial hand checking.
Then the reporters cross-checked all name matches with occupation and address data to verify that they were the same individual. They also sorted entries by date because during the sampling period, some politicians also ran for offices other than county judge or commissioner.
From my own experience with such research, I suspect the totals they reported may be understated. The rule of thumb? When it doubt, leave it out.
Contributions Don’t Automatically Guarantee Plan Approval
Cheng and Zdun are careful to point out that political contributions don’t automatically guarantee approval of developers plans. But they also point out situations in which contributions to a county commissioner mysteriously made it difficult for county employees to reject a developer’s plans/studies.
For instance, they explored a floodplain development by Ryko in Montgomery County and found that a county employee’s rejection of the developer’s plans was later escalated to a former commissioner. The employee was formally reprimanded. Coincidentally, the developer’s consultant (and former employee) currently chairs the Houston Planning Commission.
In a hundred year flood, some of Ryko’s land would be more than 18 feet underwater in a 100 year flood.
Cheng interviewed Dr. Sam Brody of Texas A&M. He said, “All the models done are based on assumptions, and the assumptions are based on what they think,” Brody said. “There are 1,000 ways to rig the model to come up with an answer that you want to see.”
Cheng also interviewed Chad Berginnis, director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers. Berginnis said he has experienced firsthand how politics can complicate efforts to enforce floodplain rules. “I tried to faithfully administer the regulations,” he said, recalling his time as a local floodplain manager. “And I can tell you on more than one occasion I suffered the county commissioners’ anger.”
I personally know a floodplain manager in Montgomery County who labored under similar pressure and eventually left the county.
Part of a Larger Series
Cheng is a talented writer/reporter with a penchant for meticulous documentation. Today’s article is part of a larger series exploring flooding in the Houston region and Texas in general. I will say this. When the next big flood destroys thousands of homes, people need look no further than Cheng’s articles for answers.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/28/2025
2982 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20250507-Ryko-Confluence-BFE-Viewer-25-ft-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C633&ssl=16331100adminadmin2025-10-28 20:15:112025-10-28 20:15:58Chronicle Tracks County Political Donations of Floodplain Developers
Yet whether you look at total dollars spent or construction dollars, the 2% figure remains.
San Jacinto Watershed Receives Less than $5 Million Per Year in 5 of 8 Years
According to the most recent figures available from Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD), the county has spent $2,071.59 million ($2+ billion) in total since passage of the flood bond in 2018. Yet the San Jacinto watershed has received only $43.65 million of that – 2.11%.
And of the $948.38 million spent on construction since Bond passage, the San Jacinto watershed has received only $19.65 million – 2.07%. See the breakdown by years below:
Data for both graphs sourced from HCFCD Activity Page. *Includes 1 Quarter. **Includes 3 Quarters.
So, whether you look at total or construction spending, the San Jacinto watershed has received less than $5 million per year in five of the last eight years.
So Much for Worst First!
To put those numbers in perspective, compare the size of the watershed to the size of the spending.
The portion of the San Jacinto watershed inside Harris County ranks it as the largest watershed in the county. But that is the smallest portion of the watershed.Compiled from HCFCD data above.
The County sold the flood bond to voters by saying it would fix the worst areas first. However, that has not been the case.
Shortly after voters approved flood bond language that guaranteed an “equitable distribution of funds,” the County adopted an “Equity Prioritization Framework” that eliminated flood damage and flood risk in the allocation of dollars. Linguists and historians may be interested in reviewing accepted definitions of equity and equitable in Websters Third International and Oxford English Dictionaries. The words sound alike, but are not the same.
Some Other Watersheds Have Received Even Less
But as bad as this is for the San Jacinto watershed, consider other watersheds that have gotten even less.
In my opinion, the issue with flood-control spending to date is not just slowness, it’s also fairness.
We’ll have a chance to fix that next year. Primary elections for county commissioners and county judge begin in March 2026. And the general election is in November 2026.
We have another hurricane season to get through before then. Don’t count on another as mild as this one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on October 27, 2025
2981 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-27-at-5.04.28-PM.png?fit=1502%2C894&ssl=18941502adminadmin2025-10-27 17:44:042025-10-27 17:57:58San Jacinto Watershed Received Only 2% of Mitigation Dollars since Passage of Flood Bond
10/26/25 – Harris County Flood Control District construction spending has plummeted in recent years along with total spending. And a leading indicator – construction contract awards – doesn’t show much hope for improvement anytime soon.
Numbers Tell the Story
I’ve posted before about the decline in total spending. It ramped up sharply after voters approved the flood bond in the third quarter of 2018. But then it started dropping relentlessly. The decline largely coincided with a management change made by the Democratic-controlled commissioners court.
The last bar on the right includes only three quarters. But at the current rate, 2025 will equal about $166 million – down about a third from 2024.
Total spending includes many activities besides construction. But flood risk isn’t reduced until construction is finished. And we see a similar decline in construction spending that started when HCFCD management changed at the start of 2022.
But the graphs above only show activity in the rear-view mirror. Looking forward, the picture is equally bleak.
Approved Bids: A Leading Indicator for Construction
Few new projects have had construction contracts awarded in the past year. Of the 16 construction contracts awarded in the previous four quarters, 14 have been for maintenance to existing assets.
Only two, both in White Oak Bayou, have been for new capital assets – the Yale and Arbor Oaks Stormwater Detention Basins. See below.
The prospects for flood-risk improvement in the immediate future look bleak for the vast majority of the county.
HCFCD awarded the construction contract for Arbor Oaks in Q2 this year. But excavation had not yet started as of late September 2025.
Deadline Rapidly Approaching for Grants Totaling $321 Million
The Texas General Land Office (GLO) and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) approved 11 projects for Community Development Block Grants in the Disaster Relief category (CDBG-DR).
The 11 projects including Arbor Oaks total $321 million dollars. But to get the money, HCFCD must complete the projects by February 28, 2027, to meet HUD’s deadline.
However, construction will need to be completed by December 2026 – thirteen months away – because it generally takes two to three months to administratively close out CDBG grants.
But according to HCFCD’s most recent bid outlook, flood control won’t even advertise eight of the 10 remaining projects until next year. And another slipped off the radar altogether.
Phase II of the Brookglen Stormwater Detention Basin received authorization to use government funds in August 2024. Yet HCFCD doesn’t even anticipate advertising it for bids until November 2025 – 15 months. That’s more time than HCFCD has to complete construction.
Little time remains to complete projects of this magnitude. And HCFCD has not explained how it will complete them before the deadline. HUD has already said they will not grant any more extensions.
This represents a real risk. Harris County residents could lose $321 million of Federal funding for important flood damage reduction projects.
The Chronicle reported that Hidalgo said, “What we found was there was no paper trail. There was no qualifications, information, selection committee, evaluation scoring — no documentation whatsoever.”
The Chronicle story added, “Flood control initially promised to reform its contracting process by August 2024, but has since asked for multiple extensions.”
Sound familiar?
No Apparent Sense of Urgency
HCFCD had only four items on the agenda for the 10/30/25 Commissioners Court meeting. Not one of the four items had to do with any of the ten CDBG-DR projects above. One involved a contract name change; the other three involved small property acquisitions.
HCFCD has billions of dollars waiting to be used. But at this moment, not one new capital improvement project is being bid.
Call me old fashioned, but I believe in “pay for performance.” I wonder what metrics Hidalgo used to recommend such a bump in pay. How can someone get paid so much to accomplish so little?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/26/25
2980 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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10/24/25 @ 5PM– FEMA and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office have issued a flood watch for the Houston region that will last until October 26 at 5:00AM CDT. See details below.
WHAT
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE
A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Grimes, Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda, Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington and Wharton.
WHEN
From late tonight through early Sunday morning.
IMPACTS
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
Although soils are dry ahead of this heavy rainfall event, guidance for high rainfall rates suggests some instances of flash flooding. There will be two rounds of heavy rainfall with the first one being late Friday night into Saturday morning and then again Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Expect widespread rainfall totals of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 4-6″. Rainfall rates in the strongest storms could exceed 2-3″ per hour. That could lead to flash flooding if these rainfall rates occur for a prolonged period of time.
We will see a lull in the activity late Saturday morning into the afternoon. That will allow for drainage. So, the flood threat is primarily driven by the potential for high rainfall rates.
You should monitor forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
RadarScope Image
At 4:15 PM, a large complex of thunderstorms moving across the Hill Country could clearly be seen on radar images.
From Radarscope Pro at 4:15 PM on 10/24/25 using multiple radar sensors.
The warning areas within the boxes above currently indicate:
Hail from 1″ to 2.5″ in diameter
Winds up to 60 MPH
Rainfall of 1′ to 2″ per hour
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says tornadoes are possible.
The first line of thunderstorms should move through the Lake Houston area shortly before sunrise Saturday.
Second Line of Thunderstorms Expected Saturday Afternoon
Lindner added that a second round of storms looks to develop Saturday afternoon across the Brazos Valley. It should push southeast across our area. This threat will last from mid to late afternoon well into the evening hours on Saturday. The activity will move from northeast to southeast across the area.
ABC13’s future track predicted the Lake Houston area accumulations could approach six inches of rain after the second round clears the area.
The break between rounds of storms should reduce stream and channel flooding.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is already down a foot and not releasing water.
Lake Houston is down almost half a foot and releasing water at the rate of 4,500 cubic feet per second. The City hopes to lower the lake by a foot ahead of the storm.
Stay Weather Aware
Keep an eye on the sky. Monitor weather forecasts and lake reports. Here’s how.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Radarscope-4P-10.24.25.png?fit=2178%2C1368&ssl=113682178adminadmin2025-10-24 16:59:362025-10-24 19:39:40FEMA Issues Flood Watch for Entire Houston Region
10/23/25 – Houston District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger announced this afternoon that the City will lower the level of Lake Houston one foot beginning tomorrow morning. The reason: a severe storm arriving Friday night into Saturday morning could dump 2-4 inches of rain over widespread parts of the Lake Houston Watershed. Isolated higher totals up to 6″ are possible where training of thunderstorm cells occurs.
Training refers to a line of thunderstorms that follows a similar path, so that one after another dumps rain on the same neighborhoods.
NOAA’s Severe Storm Center has issued alerts for possible street flooding this weekend for areas that receive high amounts of rain in short periods.
The San Jacinto River Authority is also monitoring rainfall forecasts for the weekend, but has not yet announced whether it will lower Lake Conroe. That lake is already a foot low due to evaporation during the drought. So it likely has enough capacity to absorb the coming rainfall.
Current Lake Level Report as of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Houston:
Lake Houston is currently at 42.12 feet (normal pool is 42.4 feet). Its gates will be opened beginning tomorrow morning to lower the lake one foot below normal pool, according to pre-release protocols.
Property owners along the lake should secure their shoreline property. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
As of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Conroe:
Lake Conroe is currently at 199.98 feet (normal pool is 201 feet). Lake Conroe levels can be monitored here.
Monitor Official Sources for Current Information:
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may continue through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Please use verified news sources for inclement weather information. These include:
Flash flooding is possible. So, stay weather aware and avoid roadways if possible during rain events.
It only takes 6 inches of water to move a car.
HCFCD
Always turn around, don’t drown.
Monitor Travel Conditions Closely with AlertHouston.org
Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.
Timely information during emergencies is important. AlertHouston delivers critical information to Houston residents regarding current conditions, expected impacts, and protective actions to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.
Register for emergency alerts through email, text message, voice call, or mobile app push notifications. Most alerts are geo-targeted; subscribers with loved ones around the city may register up to five physical addresses per contact record. Sign up today at www.alerthouston.org.
Threat Starts Friday, But Expect Heaviest Weather on Saturday
As atmospheric lift increases into Friday night and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, says that the potential exists for a complex of storms to form over West Texas Friday evening and move toward the Houston area by sunrise Saturday.
This would likely be the first round of more sustained heavy rainfall, according to Lindner. More rain will linger back to the west, so additional thunderstorms and rainfall could develop into Saturday evening.
A few of the thunderstorms on Saturday could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. However, they do not appear to threaten widespread areas at the moment. Lindner says wind and hail are secondary to the heavy rainfall threat at the moment.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of the area under a “marginal” or level 1 out of 5 severe threat for Saturday.
PivotalWeather.com predicts accumulated rainfall in Harris and Montgomery Counties to reach approximately 3.5 inches with higher accumulations to our north and east. But this could change as the storm gets nearer.
Drought May Offset Potential Stream Flooding
Given recent dry conditions, much of this rainfall can be handled. In fact, it is much needed…as long as it does not fall all at once.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed the area under a “slight” risk or level 2 out of 4 for flash flooding on Saturday.
Lindner feels that at this time, bayous and creeks should be capable of handling even the higher predicted rainfall totals. He expects to see significant rises on area streams, but feels significant flooding is unlikely at this time.
Lindner also feels that strong southerly winds will push high tides along the coast 4-5 feet higher than normal. Building seas and higher-than-normal tides could create minor coastal flooding at high tides.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/25 at 5:30pm
2977 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Severe-Weather-Outlook-Saturday-10.25.png?fit=1094%2C816&ssl=18161094adminadmin2025-10-23 17:48:402025-10-23 17:49:32City Lowering Lake Houston in Advance of Flood Threat
