CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
- Anywhere along the U.S. coastline
- Along the East Coast, including the Florida Panhandle
- Anywhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Tx.
They predict a:
- 51% chance for any coast (up from a 140-year average of 43%)
- 26% chance for the East Coast (up from a 140-year average of 21%)
- 33% chance for the Gulf Coast (up from a 140 year average of 27%)
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
Accuracy of Long-Range Predictions
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
- 0.1 to 0.3: Weak
- 0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
- 0.5 to 0.7: Moderate to strong
- 0.7 to 1.0: Strong
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
To help get ready for hurricane season, see the Preparedness Tab on my Links Page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2025
2774 Days since Hurricane Harvey
