Confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It will threaten some portions of the US Gulf coast. However, the National Hurricane Center advises that it’s still too early to pinpoint where the greatest impacts may be.
Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the Gulf coast to fully stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to enact. “By Sunday morning, it is likely there will be a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico,” he says.
Source: NHC. Indicates conditions as of 10a.m. CDT on 6/2/2020.
At This Moment…
Slow-moving Tropical Depression Three (TD 3) is still in the Bay of Campeche and:
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
Summary of Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours.
Current Location and Conditions
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.
NHC forecasts the center of the cyclone to remain near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.
USAF plane recorded flight-level winds of 44 kts.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
TD 3 A Rainmaker
NHC expects TD 3 to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Wind Probabilities
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.
Source: NOAA. Probably Tracking of TD 3 and earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds.
It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant. A chance exists that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.
Key Takeaways
Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.
Houston Forecast For the Week
Today, mostly sunny with light winds. Expect similar conditions on Wednesday, with the possibility of scattered showers and highs of around 90 degrees.
The second half of the week will see warmer weather as high pressure continues to build over the area. We are likely to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies and only slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the 70s.
The location of a high pressure system to our north late in the week will likely determine the track of TD 3. Monitor forecasts closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020
1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/image002.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-06-02 11:31:072020-06-02 11:31:19TD 3 Close to Tropical Storm Strength; Dumping Torrential Rains Over Mexico, Central America
For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.
Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.
The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
NHC says the system could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America this week.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.
Longer Range Outlook Cloudier
NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.
The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.
Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH
The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.
What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm
1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/image001-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-06-01 17:28:512020-06-01 17:29:02Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf
Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.
Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.
NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.
A new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so.
National Hurricane Center
The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.
Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North
The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.
Official Start of Hurricane Season Today
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:
Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.
Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20201531306_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000-1.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2020-06-01 09:50:542020-06-01 13:40:19NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%
TD 3 Close to Tropical Storm Strength; Dumping Torrential Rains Over Mexico, Central America
Confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It will threaten some portions of the US Gulf coast. However, the National Hurricane Center advises that it’s still too early to pinpoint where the greatest impacts may be.
Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the Gulf coast to fully stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to enact. “By Sunday morning, it is likely there will be a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico,” he says.
At This Moment…
Slow-moving Tropical Depression Three (TD 3) is still in the Bay of Campeche and:
Summary of Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours.
Current Location and Conditions
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.
NHC forecasts the center of the cyclone to remain near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.
USAF plane recorded flight-level winds of 44 kts.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
TD 3 A Rainmaker
NHC expects TD 3 to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Wind Probabilities
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.
It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant. A chance exists that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.
Key Takeaways
Houston Forecast For the Week
Today, mostly sunny with light winds. Expect similar conditions on Wednesday, with the possibility of scattered showers and highs of around 90 degrees.
The second half of the week will see warmer weather as high pressure continues to build over the area. We are likely to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies and only slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the 70s.
The location of a high pressure system to our north late in the week will likely determine the track of TD 3. Monitor forecasts closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020
1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf
For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.
Further Development Expected in Next 24 Hours
The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.
Longer Range Outlook Cloudier
NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.
The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.
Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH
The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.
Separately, NOAA has issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico.
What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm
1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%
Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.
Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.
Will Likely Move into Bay of Campeche
NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.
The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.
Conditions over the Bay of Campeche appear favorable for slow development of a surface low pressure system. Those conditions include:
Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North
The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.
Official Start of Hurricane Season Today
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:
Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.
The NHC monitors significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation. NHC updates forecasts at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 AM, and 7 PM CDT.
What You
Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey