NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC)forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.
However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.
If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.
Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.
Tropical Storm Amanda will likely cross into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. (Source: NOAA via Space City Weather).
Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”
“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”
“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”
“The best course of action is to monitor weather forecasts daily and National Hurricane Center outlooks for any changes.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist
Source: National Hurricane Center prediction on 5/21/2020.
Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.
Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.
Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.
Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.
Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.
Lake Level Report
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.
Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.
Lake Level
41.46 ft.
Normal Pool
42.4 ft.
Source: Coastal Water Authority readings as of 7:30am 5/31/2020.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/two_atl_5d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-05-31 08:34:162020-05-31 09:34:42NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week
Who owns our rivers? In Texas, the state owns navigable streams and rivers. People may not obstruct them, drive through them, dump waste in them, or mine them – at least not without a permit. But sand miners constantly violate those laws with only slap-on-the-wrist fines that amount to another “cost of doing business.” Meanwhile, you are the one who pays the price.
Navigable Streams/Rivers Protected for Public
What does “navigable” mean? This Texas Parks & Wildlife web page describes the concept of navigability “in fact” and “in statute.” There is no precise test for whether a stream is navigable in fact. One court observed that “[w]aters, which in their natural state are useful to the public for a considerable portion of the year are navigable.”
“Since the days of the civil law of Spain and Mexico, obstructions of navigable streams have been forbidden,” the page begins. “Nowadays the Texas Penal Code, the Texas Water Code, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Code contain prohibitions against obstructing navigable streams, and the Texas Natural Resources Code forbids unauthorized private structures.”
The Commissioner of the General Land Office has some authority to grant easements for rights of way across navigable or state-owned stream beds.
No Right to Obstruct Navigation
However, in general, no one has the right to obstruct navigation or interfere with recreation.
Parks & Wildlife Code § 90.008 states regarding Public Access: “Except as otherwise allowed by law, a person may not restrict, obstruct, interfere with, or limit public recreational use of a protected freshwater area.”
The “protected freshwater area” referred to above is defined in § 90.001 to be “the portion of the bed, bottom, or bank of a stream navigable by statute up to the gradient boundary.” That gets complicated, but generally, it means between vegetated river banks. Sand bars in a river are normally considered part of the river bed even if above water.
Numerous posts on this website have dealt with the legal limitations on discharging wastewater from sand mines. In general, it’s supposed to contain no more suspended solids and be no more turbid than natural levels in water upstream from the mine.
The only problem with that concept: when you have 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile stretch of the river, it’s hard to find unpolluted water. In effect, the procedure/standard continually “lowers the bar” as you move downstream.
Out of Sight Makes Blight
What sparked this inquiry? As I fly up and down the West Fork, I see things normally out of public view. Such as miners’ dredge lines stretched across the river, blocking navigation. Such as trucks crossing rivers. Such as mines flushing wastewater down the river. Such as mining the riverbed, without permits or paying appropriate taxes.
Few people ever see these violations. And that has led to boldness on the part of miners. There’s little chance they will be caught. It’s kind of like speeding through a barren desert.
I have no idea whether any of the miners involved in most of the incidents below bothered to obtain permits. I do know that in many cases they have not.
Here is a small sampling of what I see from the air, month after month.
Dredge Pipelines Blocking River
Dredge lines block river at Hallett truck crossing.Dredge lines blocking river at Hanson Aggregates on West Fork in Conroe.
Vehicles Driving Through River
Truck crossing water at Hallett Mine.Vehicle about to cross river toward Hanson Aggregates Mine on West Fork
Breaches Dump Wastewater into Drinking Water
Breach at Triple PG mine into Caney Creek that was left open for months, now subject of a lawsuit by the Attorney General.Another breach left open for months at same mine.Breach into West Fork at Hallett Mine. Hallett says this was their stormwater outfall. It was open for years, but is now closed.Plugged breach at Hanson Aggregates on West ForkOften mines don’t breach directly into a river where it would be obvious. Here, the LMI River Bend mine drains onto adjacent properties which then drain to the West Fork. Same area as above but closer to breach.
Abandoned Without Reclamation
Equipment abandoned in floodway at abandoned West Fork mine. Note oily scum on water. Another abandoned River Aggregates mine perpetually leaks turbid water into West Fork. Even though mine is not active, an adjacent Hallett pit often leaks into this one and causes it to overflow.
Pumping Wastewater to River and Adjoining Properties
Triple PG mine pumped wastewater over its dike onto adjoining properties while operating under an injunction. Note how water is higher outside the mine (strip of trees in middle of image) than inside.Note pipe in dike at Hanson Aggregates mine at allows water to drain out into ditch that runs to river.Pumping water over the dike at LMI’s Moorehead mine.Pumping wastewater into West Fork at Hallett MineAt site of former breach, note how pipes now carry wastewater to West Fork from Hallett Mine.Water experts say that intense blue color is either cyanobacteria or extremely high chloride content in water.
River Mining Without Permit
River mining without permit at Spring Wet Sand and Gravel on West Fork.
Effect on Water Quality
Looking north at confluence of West Fork (top) and Spring Creek by US59. West Fork usually runs murkier than Spring Creek right. Almost all area sand mines are on West Fork.Same confluence as above but looking west.56,000,000 gallons of white goop from Liberty Mine breach turned West Fork (right) white.
Contributing to Blockages and Flooding
Rivers transport sand and sediment naturally. But with 20 square miles of sand mines built in the floodway of the West Fork upstream from the Lake Houston Area, miners have increased the potential for erosion 33x compared to the average width of the river. The pictures below, taken shortly after Harvey, show the results.
A six foot high dune not present before Harvey occluded the West Fork by 90% according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. More than 600 homes and hundreds of businesses flooded upstream from this blockage.West fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar after Harvey. Thousands of homes upstream from this blockage flooded during Harvey. It’s costing taxpayers more than $100 million to remove such blockages.
Please share this post with friends and family. It’s time to start getting ready for the next legislative session.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2020
1005 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20191002-EF-WF-Aerial_632.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-05-30 15:50:562026-04-09 15:01:28Sand Miners Act Like They Own Our Rivers
For the record, this morning, the SJRA resumed lowering Lake Conroe just three days before the scheduled end of its Spring seasonal release. As of 1PM, the SJRA is releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Recent rains raised the lake level more than a half foot from the target of 200 feet to 200.53 feet.
Source SJRA.net as of approximately 11 a.m. on May 29, 2020.
SJRA Coordinated with CoH
The lake had risen to approximately 200.4 feet for the last two weeks of May. And, when heavy rains entered the forecast, readers began to ask whether SJRA would lower it to 200 again. However, SJRA did not resume lowering at that time.
Reportedly, the City of Houston was worried about overloading Lake Houston at a time when:
Dam repairs were in progress
Heavy rainfall was in the forecast
So the SJRA held water back.
What 500 CFS looks like. Photographed 7/31/2018, during a tour of the Lake Conroe Dam.The current release is three times this rate.
According to sources, the Coastal Water Authority has opened its gates on Lake Houston and is coordinating release rates with the SJRA so as not to flood downstream residents.
Exact Text of Spring Lake Lowering Policy
For the record, here is the official SJRA lake lowering policy renewed with some modifications after months of divisive debate. Lake Houston residents wanted the extra buffer against flooding. Lake Conroe residents claimed there was no proof it worked. They also claimed that it was lowering their property values and destroying their tax base.
In the Spring, the policy calls for:
“Beginning April 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ mean sea level to 200’ msl). Recapture of lake level beginning June 1.”
Average Lake Level By Month for 46 Years
Also note that the lake level rarely reaches 201. The average varies each month depending on rainfall and evaporation. So when Lake Conroe reached 200.53, it exceeded the norm.
Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. Source: SJRA
We need to watch this closely. In 2.5 days, this release should stop until the SJRA resumes seasonal releases on August 1. Please report any flooding through the contact page on this web site.
Beginning August 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ msl to 200’ msl). After September 1, increase capacity an additional six inches (from 200’ msl to 199.5’ msl). If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, the COH may initiate an additional release of six inches (to 199’ msl) by notifying SJRA in writing of their call for release. Recapture beginning October 1.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020
1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/IMG_0929.jpeg?fit=1280%2C960&ssl=19601280adminadmin2020-05-29 14:21:132020-05-29 14:21:32SJRA Resumes Seasonal Release 3 Days Before Scheduled End
NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week
NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.
However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.
If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.
Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.
Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”
“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”
“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”
Preparedness
Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The NHC predicts above-average activity this hurricane season.
Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.
Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.
Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.
Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.
Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.
Lake Level Report
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.
Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Sand Miners Act Like They Own Our Rivers
Who owns our rivers? In Texas, the state owns navigable streams and rivers. People may not obstruct them, drive through them, dump waste in them, or mine them – at least not without a permit. But sand miners constantly violate those laws with only slap-on-the-wrist fines that amount to another “cost of doing business.” Meanwhile, you are the one who pays the price.
Navigable Streams/Rivers Protected for Public
What does “navigable” mean? This Texas Parks & Wildlife web page describes the concept of navigability “in fact” and “in statute.” There is no precise test for whether a stream is navigable in fact. One court observed that “[w]aters, which in their natural state are useful to the public for a considerable portion of the year are navigable.”
Another link to Texas Parks & Wildlife describes stream navigation law, specifically “Private Uses, Obstructions, Bridges and Dams.”
“Since the days of the civil law of Spain and Mexico, obstructions of navigable streams have been forbidden,” the page begins. “Nowadays the Texas Penal Code, the Texas Water Code, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Code contain prohibitions against obstructing navigable streams, and the Texas Natural Resources Code forbids unauthorized private structures.”
The Commissioner of the General Land Office has some authority to grant easements for rights of way across navigable or state-owned stream beds.
No Right to Obstruct Navigation
Parks & Wildlife Code § 90.008 states regarding Public Access: “Except as otherwise allowed by law, a person may not restrict, obstruct, interfere with, or limit public recreational use of a protected freshwater area.”
The “protected freshwater area” referred to above is defined in § 90.001 to be “the portion of the bed, bottom, or bank of a stream navigable by statute up to the gradient boundary.” That gets complicated, but generally, it means between vegetated river banks. Sand bars in a river are normally considered part of the river bed even if above water.
Prohibition Against Motor Vehicles in Rivers
In addition to the restrictions on obstruction of navigability, landowners (and the public) are generally prohibited from operating a motor vehicle in the bed of a navigable waterway (Tex. Parks & Wild. Code Section 90.002).
Prohibition Against Unauthorized Discharges
Numerous posts on this website have dealt with the legal limitations on discharging wastewater from sand mines. In general, it’s supposed to contain no more suspended solids and be no more turbid than natural levels in water upstream from the mine.
The only problem with that concept: when you have 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile stretch of the river, it’s hard to find unpolluted water. In effect, the procedure/standard continually “lowers the bar” as you move downstream.
Out of Sight Makes Blight
What sparked this inquiry? As I fly up and down the West Fork, I see things normally out of public view. Such as miners’ dredge lines stretched across the river, blocking navigation. Such as trucks crossing rivers. Such as mines flushing wastewater down the river. Such as mining the riverbed, without permits or paying appropriate taxes.
Few people ever see these violations. And that has led to boldness on the part of miners. There’s little chance they will be caught. It’s kind of like speeding through a barren desert.
I have no idea whether any of the miners involved in most of the incidents below bothered to obtain permits. I do know that in many cases they have not.
Here is a small sampling of what I see from the air, month after month.
Dredge Pipelines Blocking River
Vehicles Driving Through River
Breaches Dump Wastewater into Drinking Water
Abandoned Without Reclamation
Pumping Wastewater to River and Adjoining Properties
River Mining Without Permit
Effect on Water Quality
Contributing to Blockages and Flooding
Rivers transport sand and sediment naturally. But with 20 square miles of sand mines built in the floodway of the West Fork upstream from the Lake Houston Area, miners have increased the potential for erosion 33x compared to the average width of the river. The pictures below, taken shortly after Harvey, show the results.
Please share this post with friends and family. It’s time to start getting ready for the next legislative session.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2020
1005 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
SJRA Resumes Seasonal Release 3 Days Before Scheduled End
For the record, this morning, the SJRA resumed lowering Lake Conroe just three days before the scheduled end of its Spring seasonal release. As of 1PM, the SJRA is releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Recent rains raised the lake level more than a half foot from the target of 200 feet to 200.53 feet.
SJRA Coordinated with CoH
The lake had risen to approximately 200.4 feet for the last two weeks of May. And, when heavy rains entered the forecast, readers began to ask whether SJRA would lower it to 200 again. However, SJRA did not resume lowering at that time.
Reportedly, the City of Houston was worried about overloading Lake Houston at a time when:
So the SJRA held water back.
According to sources, the Coastal Water Authority has opened its gates on Lake Houston and is coordinating release rates with the SJRA so as not to flood downstream residents.
Exact Text of Spring Lake Lowering Policy
For the record, here is the official SJRA lake lowering policy renewed with some modifications after months of divisive debate. Lake Houston residents wanted the extra buffer against flooding. Lake Conroe residents claimed there was no proof it worked. They also claimed that it was lowering their property values and destroying their tax base.
In the Spring, the policy calls for:
Average Lake Level By Month for 46 Years
Also note that the lake level rarely reaches 201. The average varies each month depending on rainfall and evaporation. So when Lake Conroe reached 200.53, it exceeded the norm.
We need to watch this closely. In 2.5 days, this release should stop until the SJRA resumes seasonal releases on August 1. Please report any flooding through the contact page on this web site.
Text of Fall Policy
The fall seasonal lowering coincides with the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA Fall seasonal lowering policy states:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020
1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey