For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.
Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.
The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
NHC says the system could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America this week.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.
Longer Range Outlook Cloudier
NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.
The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.
Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH
The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.
What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm
1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/image001-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-06-01 17:28:512020-06-01 17:29:02Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf
Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.
Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.
NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.
A new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so.
National Hurricane Center
The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.
Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North
The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.
Official Start of Hurricane Season Today
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:
Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.
Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20201531306_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000-1.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2020-06-01 09:50:542020-06-01 13:40:19NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%
NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC)forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.
However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.
If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.
Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.
Tropical Storm Amanda will likely cross into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. (Source: NOAA via Space City Weather).
Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”
“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”
“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”
“The best course of action is to monitor weather forecasts daily and National Hurricane Center outlooks for any changes.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist
Source: National Hurricane Center prediction on 5/21/2020.
Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.
Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.
Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.
Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.
Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.
Lake Level Report
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.
Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.
Lake Level
41.46 ft.
Normal Pool
42.4 ft.
Source: Coastal Water Authority readings as of 7:30am 5/31/2020.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/two_atl_5d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-05-31 08:34:162020-05-31 09:34:42NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf
For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.
Further Development Expected in Next 24 Hours
The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.
Longer Range Outlook Cloudier
NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.
The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.
Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH
The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.
Separately, NOAA has issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico.
What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm
1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%
Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.
Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.
Will Likely Move into Bay of Campeche
NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.
The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.
Conditions over the Bay of Campeche appear favorable for slow development of a surface low pressure system. Those conditions include:
Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North
The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.
Official Start of Hurricane Season Today
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:
Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.
The NHC monitors significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation. NHC updates forecasts at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 AM, and 7 PM CDT.
What You
Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey
NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week
NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.
However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.
If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.
Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.
Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”
“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”
“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”
Preparedness
Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The NHC predicts above-average activity this hurricane season.
Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.
Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.
Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.
Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.
Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.
Lake Level Report
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.
Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020
1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey