Source: NHC. Peak of season occurs on September 10.
“The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season,” warns the NHC.
Average Number of Storms
Source; NHC
In an average season, we get 11 or 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and two or three of which become major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
Twelve storms would get you to the letter L. But so far this year, we’re already on the R storm. And we have three more months to go in the season.
Points of Origin Tend to Shift by Month
The NHC shows where hurricanes tend to form each month of the season. In the first ten days of September, more hurricanes form in the Gulf than at any other time. The NHC shows a whole series of charts like the one below. It’s interesting to see how they change from period to period.
Source: NHC. Sept. 1-10 and Sept. 11-20 show the greatest number of hurricanes forming in the Gulf.
Note how few storms formed in the Caribbean compared to the period from October 11 to 20.
Compared to September 1-10, note how many more storms formed in the Caribbean during October 11-20.
Track Probabilities Also Shift by Month
The NHC also shows an interesting series of charts that show track probabilities by month. September is the most likely month for storms to track through the Caribbean, into the Gulf and onward to the Texas coast.
Source: NHC
Source: NHC
In stark contrast, during October, storms are most likely to veer east toward Florida and the East Coast.
Strike Density on Western Gulf Coast
Source: NHC
On the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston has been hit more times than any other county. Harris, Brazoria and Chambers Counties follow closely.
Today’s Five Day Tropical Outlook
As if on cue, the NHC is now tracking seven tropical disturbances (as of 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020).
The two closest to Texas are highlighted in yellow above. That means they currently have less than a 40% chance of formation.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is forecast to move westward, crossing Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation chance through 5 days is 30 percent.
Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through through 5 days is even lower, at 20 percent.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/peakofseason.gif?fit=831%2C546&ssl=1546831adminadmin2020-09-10 11:34:142020-09-10 11:34:38Today is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season
San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) will hold public meeting on Thursday, September 10, 2020, at 6:00 p.m., via webinar and telephone conference, to discuss its ongoing Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project.
Accurately determining inflow during a flood theoretically lets dam operators determine how much water to release and when. That, in turn, helps protect properties both upstream and downstream to the extent possible.
Senior residents of Kingwood Village Estates trying to escape as Harvey’s floodwaters rose.
Additional Information
The Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project addresses flood protection in the San Jacinto River Watershed.
One goal: to anticipate peak water level in Lake Conroe during rainfall events based on:
Weather forecasts
Observed rainfall
Lake levels
Other data.
A second goal: to predict peak release rates of stormwater from Lake Conroe.
The SJRA says this will help improve communication with Offices of Emergency Management and the general public during rainfall events.
SJRA expects completion of the project by early spring 2021. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and SJRA have funded the project.
Ask Questions, Express Views
You can view and participate in the meeting remotely via the webinar link below to express your views of the Project.
Questions or requests for additional information about the SJRA Reservoir Forecasting Tool may be directed to Mr. Matt Barrett, P.E., Division Engineer, SJRA, 1577 Dam Site Road, Conroe, Montgomery County, Texas 77304, Tel. (936) 588-3111.
SJRA requests those who intend to express their views to contact Mr. Barrett either in writing or by telephone in advance of the meeting.
To Participate Via Webinar and/or Comment
Only those participating via Webinar using the GoToWebinar App will be able to provide comments during the meeting.
If you choose to participate via conference call using the number below, you will NOT have the opportunity to provide comments during the designated portion of the meeting. The conference call phone number is provided for LISTENING PURPOSES ONLY.
Telephone conference call phone number: (562) 247-8321 and the audio access code is 150-445-802
Editorial Comment
I, for one, hope they use their new Reservoir Forecasting Tool to release floodwater at safe rates, although that was not explicitly stated in the SJRA press release on the meeting. Releasing at safer rates may mean releasing water earlier or holding it longer to flatten peaks. In my opinion, SJRA should hold floodwater as high as they safely can…as long as they safely can. I hope this new tool helps SJRA do that.
I’d rather see floodwater in Lake Conroe than in Kingwood’s Town Center.
Kingwood Town Center Apartments after Lake Conroe Release. Yes, that’s the top of an SUV that failed to evacuate in time.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 9th, 2020
1107 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Kingwood-Town-Center-Apts.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=15631200adminadmin2020-09-09 14:18:192020-09-09 14:48:09SJRA Considering Input on Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Thursday, 6PM
Nicole Black-Rudolph captured these two photos downstream from Woodridge. They show the water in Taylor Gully at the Turtle Bridge in Woodstream. The first shows what the water normally looks like. The second shows what it looks like now.
Normal/Now Photos by Nicole Black-Rudolph showing increased silt in Taylor Gully.
Where Did Silt-Laden Water Come From?
Following Taylor Gully upstream, you come to 268 clear-cut acres – Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village. All pictures below show Woodridge Village on the morning of September 7, 2020. A nearby Elm Grove resident, Jeff Miller, reported .7 inches of rain fell in his gauge on 9/5 and 9/6. That wasn’t enough to cause flooding, but it was certainly enough to erode sediment as the pictures below show.
Looking SSW across Woodridge from the top of the N3 detention pond on the eastern border. Elm Grove is at top. Everything slopes toward Taylor Gully in the upper left.Woodridge Village, looking NW from over Taylor GullyLooking north at N3 detention pond day after rainfall. Silty water is still flowing out of the pond.Looking east at the concrete lined portion of Taylor Gully on the Woodridge site where water exits the site and crosses into the open channel on the Harris County side of the county line, out of frame to the right (see below).Looking south at Taylor Gully immediately south of the county line. Note how color of water in ditch matches the color of water on the right in the side-by-side comparison photo above.
Now, despite best efforts to reduce erosion with conventional countermeasures, the exposed surface washes downstream with each rain. This re-deposits more sediment, which the Flood Control District just removed. (See two photos below from 2019.)
Taylor Gully Before 2019 Clean out.
Taylor Gully After 2019 Clean Out
Pray there’s movement on this deal soon. Perry Homes should plant grass on their property until the ping-pong match is over. Silt fences and rock baskets alone just don’t do the job.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/2020 with photos from Nicole Black-Rudolph and Rain Data from Jeff Miller
1106 Days since Hurricane Harveyand 355 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Taylor-Gully-Silt.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-08 14:37:012020-09-08 14:40:40Woodridge Village Still Silting Up Taylor Gully
Today is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), today is the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
Little Known Facts About Hurricanes: Peak of Season
The NHC has a fascinating page on hurricanes and climatology. Here are some interesting facts I gleaned from it.
“The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season,” warns the NHC.
Average Number of Storms
In an average season, we get 11 or 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and two or three of which become major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
Twelve storms would get you to the letter L. But so far this year, we’re already on the R storm. And we have three more months to go in the season.
Points of Origin Tend to Shift by Month
The NHC shows where hurricanes tend to form each month of the season. In the first ten days of September, more hurricanes form in the Gulf than at any other time. The NHC shows a whole series of charts like the one below. It’s interesting to see how they change from period to period.
Note how few storms formed in the Caribbean compared to the period from October 11 to 20.
Track Probabilities Also Shift by Month
The NHC also shows an interesting series of charts that show track probabilities by month. September is the most likely month for storms to track through the Caribbean, into the Gulf and onward to the Texas coast.
In stark contrast, during October, storms are most likely to veer east toward Florida and the East Coast.
Strike Density on Western Gulf Coast
On the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston has been hit more times than any other county. Harris, Brazoria and Chambers Counties follow closely.
Today’s Five Day Tropical Outlook
As if on cue, the NHC is now tracking seven tropical disturbances (as of 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020).
The two closest to Texas are highlighted in yellow above. That means they currently have less than a 40% chance of formation.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is forecast to move westward, crossing Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation chance through 5 days is 30 percent.
Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through through 5 days is even lower, at 20 percent.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Considering Input on Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Thursday, 6PM
San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) will hold public meeting on Thursday, September 10, 2020, at 6:00 p.m., via webinar and telephone conference, to discuss its ongoing Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project.
Accurately determining inflow during a flood theoretically lets dam operators determine how much water to release and when. That, in turn, helps protect properties both upstream and downstream to the extent possible.
During Harvey, many felt that the SJRA released too much water too quickly – 79,000 cubic feet per second at one point. That, they say, flooded homes downstream unnecessarily when capacity still existed in the reservoir. Lawsuits are still working their way through the courts.
Many also complained about the lack of warning for the massive release which inundated homes as people slept.
Additional Information
The Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool Project addresses flood protection in the San Jacinto River Watershed.
One goal: to anticipate peak water level in Lake Conroe during rainfall events based on:
A second goal: to predict peak release rates of stormwater from Lake Conroe.
The SJRA says this will help improve communication with Offices of Emergency Management and the general public during rainfall events.
SJRA expects completion of the project by early spring 2021. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and SJRA have funded the project.
Ask Questions, Express Views
You can view and participate in the meeting remotely via the webinar link below to express your views of the Project.
Questions or requests for additional information about the SJRA Reservoir Forecasting Tool may be directed to Mr. Matt Barrett, P.E., Division Engineer, SJRA, 1577 Dam Site Road, Conroe, Montgomery County, Texas 77304, Tel. (936) 588-3111.
SJRA requests those who intend to express their views to contact Mr. Barrett either in writing or by telephone in advance of the meeting.
To Participate Via Webinar and/or Comment
Only those participating via Webinar using the GoToWebinar App will be able to provide comments during the meeting.
Webinar Link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5029250157384078351
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Please use Webinar ID: 372-655-099
To Participate Via Phone and Listen
If you choose to participate via conference call using the number below, you will NOT have the opportunity to provide comments during the designated portion of the meeting. The conference call phone number is provided for LISTENING PURPOSES ONLY.
Telephone conference call phone number: (562) 247-8321 and the audio access code is 150-445-802
Editorial Comment
I, for one, hope they use their new Reservoir Forecasting Tool to release floodwater at safe rates, although that was not explicitly stated in the SJRA press release on the meeting. Releasing at safer rates may mean releasing water earlier or holding it longer to flatten peaks. In my opinion, SJRA should hold floodwater as high as they safely can…as long as they safely can. I hope this new tool helps SJRA do that.
I’d rather see floodwater in Lake Conroe than in Kingwood’s Town Center.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 9th, 2020
1107 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Woodridge Village Still Silting Up Taylor Gully
Despite countermeasures, such as silt fences and rock baskets designed to catch erosion, Woodridge Village is still silting up Taylor Gully. And this comes shortly after Harris County Flood Control just cleaned out the ditch to restore its conveyance.
Nicole Black-Rudolph captured these two photos downstream from Woodridge. They show the water in Taylor Gully at the Turtle Bridge in Woodstream. The first shows what the water normally looks like. The second shows what it looks like now.
Where Did Silt-Laden Water Come From?
Following Taylor Gully upstream, you come to 268 clear-cut acres – Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village. All pictures below show Woodridge Village on the morning of September 7, 2020. A nearby Elm Grove resident, Jeff Miller, reported .7 inches of rain fell in his gauge on 9/5 and 9/6. That wasn’t enough to cause flooding, but it was certainly enough to erode sediment as the pictures below show.
Political Ping Pong
Perry Homes’ troubled development in Montgomery County has been caught in a political ping-pong match that has delayed either its ultimate build out or conversion into a regional detention facility. The match started in February when the City of Houston said Harris County should pay for the conversion. It has continued until now. Harris County Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis keeps heaping one new condition after another on the sale of the property to Harris County Flood Control District.
Woodridge contributed to flooding Elm Grove Village in Kingwood (immediately to the south and across the Harris County line) twice last year. Perry contractors had clear cut 268 acres and filled in natural streams and wetlands that criss-crossed the property before fully installing detention ponds. When major rains stuck on May 7th and September 19th last year, sheet flow from Woodridge, coupled with water backing up in the streets of Elm Grove, flooded hundreds of homes. The area is still recovering.
Harris County Flood Control immediately started a project to restore the conveyance of the ditch which was badly silted, in part due to construction activities.
Now, despite best efforts to reduce erosion with conventional countermeasures, the exposed surface washes downstream with each rain. This re-deposits more sediment, which the Flood Control District just removed. (See two photos below from 2019.)
Pray there’s movement on this deal soon. Perry Homes should plant grass on their property until the ping-pong match is over. Silt fences and rock baskets alone just don’t do the job.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/2020 with photos from Nicole Black-Rudolph and Rain Data from Jeff Miller
1106 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 355 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.