Arrival time along the U.S. Gulf Coast should be sometime Sunday evening, according to current predictions.
Impacts to U.S.
Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center.
Risks to the US mainland include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and high winds beginning this weekend from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
NHC emphasizes that it is still to soon to determine the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts. The best plan: monitor progress of the storm and make sure you are prepared.
Houston Likely To Be On Clean Side
Current projections take the storm up Central Louisiana. So Houston will likely be on the “clean” side of the storm. Because rotation around a low is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, the storm is likely to dump the most rain east of the center.
5-day forecast as of 10 a.m. CDT on Thursday from NHC. Note how cone has shifted east of Galveston Bay.
10% Chance of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Houston
Forecasters currently give Houston a 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds.
However, Houston still has a 10% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds because of the width of the storm.
Arrival of Winds Saturday Night into Sunday Morning
Earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds will likely be Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Winds should arrive Saturday night or Sunday.
Impacts Far Wider than Cone of Uncertainty
Storm impacts can be felt far beyond the center of the storm as the satellite image below shows. Heavy rainfall will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Tropical storm and storm-surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.
As you prepare for Cristobal, remember how wide the feeder bands are.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020
1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 259 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Cristobal.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=112001200adminadmin2020-06-04 10:38:532020-06-04 10:48:04Cristobal Likely to Reach U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday
Perry Home’s new contractors have excavated the vast majority of virtually all three detention ponds on the north section of Woodridge Village. That means they have almost completed 77% of the detention pond capacity for the whole site in two months. The previous contractors completed only 23% in approximately twenty months.
That represents approximately a 30x increase in productivity.
Overview of Woodridge Village Detention Pond Capacity
The pie chart below shows how that capacity breaks down. And the map shows where it is.
Percentage of detention pond capacity in acre feet for each of the five Woodridge Village ponds.Source: LJA Drainage Addendum.General layout of detention ponds on Perry Homes’ property.
Cristobal has the potential to create massive erosion and set the work schedule back. The aerial photos below taken on 6/2/2020 show the current “pre-storm” status of construction for the three northern detention ponds. The two southern detention ponds were completed earlier this year.
N1 Nearing Completion of Excavation
N1 Starts at the northern boundary of the site and runs halfway down the western edge to Mace Street.
Looking north at N1 from Mace Street in Porter to the northern boundary. The area between the culverts will eventually become an extension of Mace Street (top of photo) which will traverse the entire subdivision to Ford Road on the eastern side.While some contractors continue excavating, others work on installing concrete pilot channels. Shown here, the pilot channel near Ivy Ridge in Porter.The northern part of N1 is not yet complete. Contractors still use the Webb Street entrance (upper left as their main access point to the site.Note how height of road dwarfs excavator in pit.
Still Widening and Deepening N2 Pond
The area left of the diagonal road is the expansion of N2. The area near the diagonal embankment is deep enough to conceal trucks and excavators. However, the grassy triangle in the middle left was a previous detention pond constructed my Montgomery County in the early 2000s. Contractors are deepening the MoCo pond a small amount to create additional storage capacity.The dirt is being used to build up other portions of the site.Looking north along the western boundary from the southern part of the grassy triangle. Much work remains to extend the N1 channel south to N2. Jeff Miller reported today that contractors started working on thisthis morning.On 6.3.20, contractors were removing dirt from the northward extention of N2 with three dump trucks running in a relay fashion. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.Twin culverts installed in Taylor Gully will control outflow rates from N1 and N2.
N3 All Excavated
N3 cuts down the eastern side of Woodridge Village and joins Taylor Gully right above S2.
Looking north. Excavation of N3 appears complete although few of the finishing touches have yet been installed.Looking south at the main body of N3. N3 widens out about halfway down the eastern border.Then it narrows down again to help control outflow speedas it approaches the junction with Taylor Gully.Water from the entire site converges here. Erosion patterns, fence damage and grass matting show this is where the overflow started that contributed to the flooding of Elm Grove (right) and North Kingwood Forest (left) twice last year.
The pile of dirt in the picture above could be shoved into the connecting channel in the event that Cristobal should strike Houston. That would then help retain water in N3 until after the storm.
All the runoff from the approximately 200-acre northern portion of the site converges here and tries to make its way through a 3-foot culvert at the end of the concrete channel.
Uncertain Still Surrounds Corner of Chaos
Some Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest residents have called the complex flow patterns in the photo above “The Corner of Chaos.”
Overflow from the concrete lined channel is supposed to go into the kite-shaped S2 pond, and then through the twin culverts into Taylor Gully. However, a hydrology consultant for the plaintiffs in flooding lawsuits contends that floodwaters went the other way.They escaped out of the inflow channel, he says. He further claims that LJA Engineering failed to model the performance of that connecting channel.
If the design of the flow at this “Corner of Chaos” is flawed, there’s little contractors can do to fix that at this point without some major re-engineering.
In that regard, we should also remember that LJA designed these ponds before Atlas 14, so they will only hold approximately 60% of a 100-year rainfall as defined by Atlas 14 standards adopted in Harris County.
How Contractors are Temporarily Funneling Water into Ponds
Because storm drains are not yet installed, contractors are relying on temporary channels to intercept runoff and direct it to detention ponds.
Small ditches like one on right catch runoff and direct it to ponds for the time being.
Next Steps in Completing Detention Ponds
A modest amount of excavation remains to complete the full detention pond capacity.
But the capacity already in place should reduce flood risk compared to last year by more than 3X for storms equivalent to May 7 and September 19, 2019.
As some crews focus on completing excavation, others are putting the finishing touches on ponds. Those include concrete pilot channels, backslope interceptor swales, drain pipes, and culverts to control the rate of outflow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020with thanks to Jeff Miller
1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 258 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200602-DJI_0058.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-06-03 22:02:292020-06-04 09:07:38Woodridge Village Pre-Cristobal Detention Pond Update
Cristobal should approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The latest predictions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest it should reach Louisiana Sunday morning by 8 a.m. Houston remains within the cone of uncertainty. The storm has already dumped torrential rains on Mexico and Central America and produced life-threatening flash flooding.
NHC forecast track of TS Christobal shows the center of the storm arriving in Louisiana sometime between Sunday and Monday.
No one is yet predicting the exact point of impact, the intensity at landfall, or the potential rainfall. Note, however, that the storm is significantly bigger than the center. Areas far away from the track may still experience significant impacts.
So far, this storm appears to be Mexico’s and Central America’s version of Harvey in that it has stalled in one location and dropped heavy rainfall for 4-5 days.
Current Location and Conditions
Here’s what’s happening at this hour.
Cristobal dipped inland this morning in the Mexican State of Campeche around around 8 a.m. CDT. Aircraft and surface reports indicate intensity at about 50 kt. (57.5 mph).
Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. The NHC anticipates Cristobal will weaken to a topical depression by tomorrow evening. However, they also predict the system will re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
Sheer Expected in Northern Gulf
NHC says global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
Impacts to Date
Damaging and deadly flooding has occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Up to 35 inches of rain has already fallen in some locations since May 30.
Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
Rainfall in Mexico and Central America Through Friday
NHC predicts Cristobal will produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Threat to U.S. by Sunday
NHC forecasts Cristobal to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night.
Christobal should then move northward over the central and northern Gulf over the weekend. Risks to the US Gulf coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, people and businesses in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Earliest Arrival Times of Tropical Storm Force Winds. NHC prediction as of 6/3/2020 at 10AM CDT.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020 at 11:30 a.m.
1009 days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/145637_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-06-03 11:30:192020-06-03 11:40:59NHC Predicts Christobal to Hit Louisiana by Sunday Morning, Houston Still Within Cone
Cristobal Likely to Reach U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday
The latest report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 10 a.m. 6/4/2020 indicates that Tropical Storm Cristobal has moved inland in southern Mexico and has weakened to a tropical depression. All coastal watches and warnings in Mexico have been lifted. Maximum sustained winds are now at 35 mph with higher gusts. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will move back over water by Friday afternoon and then re-intensify into a tropical storm as it moves north into the central Gulf Saturday and Sunday.
Impacts to U.S.
Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center.
NHC emphasizes that it is still to soon to determine the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts. The best plan: monitor progress of the storm and make sure you are prepared.
Houston Likely To Be On Clean Side
Current projections take the storm up Central Louisiana. So Houston will likely be on the “clean” side of the storm. Because rotation around a low is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, the storm is likely to dump the most rain east of the center.
10% Chance of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Houston
Forecasters currently give Houston a 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds.
Arrival of Winds Saturday Night into Sunday Morning
Earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds will likely be Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Impacts Far Wider than Cone of Uncertainty
Storm impacts can be felt far beyond the center of the storm as the satellite image below shows. Heavy rainfall will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Tropical storm and storm-surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020
1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 259 after Imelda
Woodridge Village Pre-Cristobal Detention Pond Update
Perry Home’s new contractors have excavated the vast majority of virtually all three detention ponds on the north section of Woodridge Village. That means they have almost completed 77% of the detention pond capacity for the whole site in two months. The previous contractors completed only 23% in approximately twenty months.
Overview of Woodridge Village Detention Pond Capacity
The pie chart below shows how that capacity breaks down. And the map shows where it is.
Contractors Scurry as Cristobal Churns in Gulf
Tropical Storm Cristobal could be a game changer next week if it hits Houston. It’s track is far from certain at this point, but the National Hurricane Center still puts Houston within the cone of uncertainty.
Cristobal has the potential to create massive erosion and set the work schedule back. The aerial photos below taken on 6/2/2020 show the current “pre-storm” status of construction for the three northern detention ponds. The two southern detention ponds were completed earlier this year.
N1 Nearing Completion of Excavation
N1 Starts at the northern boundary of the site and runs halfway down the western edge to Mace Street.
Still Widening and Deepening N2 Pond
N3 All Excavated
N3 cuts down the eastern side of Woodridge Village and joins Taylor Gully right above S2.
The pile of dirt in the picture above could be shoved into the connecting channel in the event that Cristobal should strike Houston. That would then help retain water in N3 until after the storm.
All the runoff from the approximately 200-acre northern portion of the site converges here and tries to make its way through a 3-foot culvert at the end of the concrete channel.
Uncertain Still Surrounds Corner of Chaos
Some Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest residents have called the complex flow patterns in the photo above “The Corner of Chaos.”
Overflow from the concrete lined channel is supposed to go into the kite-shaped S2 pond, and then through the twin culverts into Taylor Gully. However, a hydrology consultant for the plaintiffs in flooding lawsuits contends that floodwaters went the other way. They escaped out of the inflow channel, he says. He further claims that LJA Engineering failed to model the performance of that connecting channel.
If the design of the flow at this “Corner of Chaos” is flawed, there’s little contractors can do to fix that at this point without some major re-engineering.
In that regard, we should also remember that LJA designed these ponds before Atlas 14, so they will only hold approximately 60% of a 100-year rainfall as defined by Atlas 14 standards adopted in Harris County.
How Contractors are Temporarily Funneling Water into Ponds
Because storm drains are not yet installed, contractors are relying on temporary channels to intercept runoff and direct it to detention ponds.
Next Steps in Completing Detention Ponds
A modest amount of excavation remains to complete the full detention pond capacity.
As some crews focus on completing excavation, others are putting the finishing touches on ponds. Those include concrete pilot channels, backslope interceptor swales, drain pipes, and culverts to control the rate of outflow.
Racing Against Hurricane Season
At this point, contractors are racing against time and the hurricane season. Cristobal underscores the risk of having waited for months to begin the three northern detention ponds in April. Had they begun them immediately after J. Carey Gray’s letter to Mayor Turn in October, they could easily have finished by now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020 with thanks to Jeff Miller
1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 258 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
NHC Predicts Christobal to Hit Louisiana by Sunday Morning, Houston Still Within Cone
Cristobal should approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The latest predictions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest it should reach Louisiana Sunday morning by 8 a.m. Houston remains within the cone of uncertainty. The storm has already dumped torrential rains on Mexico and Central America and produced life-threatening flash flooding.
No one is yet predicting the exact point of impact, the intensity at landfall, or the potential rainfall. Note, however, that the storm is significantly bigger than the center. Areas far away from the track may still experience significant impacts.
So far, this storm appears to be Mexico’s and Central America’s version of Harvey in that it has stalled in one location and dropped heavy rainfall for 4-5 days.
Current Location and Conditions
Here’s what’s happening at this hour.
Cristobal dipped inland this morning in the Mexican State of Campeche around around 8 a.m. CDT. Aircraft and surface reports indicate intensity at about 50 kt. (57.5 mph).
Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. The NHC anticipates Cristobal will weaken to a topical depression by tomorrow evening. However, they also predict the system will re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
Sheer Expected in Northern Gulf
NHC says global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
Impacts to Date
Damaging and deadly flooding has occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Up to 35 inches of rain has already fallen in some locations since May 30.
Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
Rainfall in Mexico and Central America Through Friday
NHC predicts Cristobal will produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:
Threat to U.S. by Sunday
NHC forecasts Cristobal to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, people and businesses in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020 at 11:30 a.m.
1009 days after Hurricane Harvey