On September 24th, I noted some chatter online about another fire in the Forest Cove townhome complex between Hamblen Road and the West Fork. I went there last night to see what had happened. It was very disheartening. Five more townhomes had burned to the ground. Nothing remained but ashes.
Why We Should Not Build So Close to Rivers
Not long ago, dozens of families lived in this complex. They had hopes and dreams. Children played in the street. Neighbors looked after each other. Couples got married by the river. Everyone shared a love a nature. Sure, they had frequent floods. But the homes were designed around that. Then came Harvey.
Water reached 17 to 23 feet into the third floors of townhomes. After a night of terror in which 240,000 cubic feet per second literally swept some structures off their foundations, residents returned to a wasteland. It was so bad, that FEMA even came here to film a video about the ravages of Harvey. Now, it’s even worse.
Many people who once lived here, like Jennifer Parks, won’t even venture into the neighborhood. They find the memories too traumatic. Here’s what her once-proud townhome looks like today. This was the fourth fire in that neighborhood since the start of 2019.
Photos of Latest Fire
Five more units burned. Not one still stands west of Timberline Drive.
The fire scorched surrounding trees and left nothing but ashes.
The bottom floors were garages.
Townhomes between Timberline Dr., Timberline Court and Aqua Vista St. have all burned.
The northern half of the complex in the red rectangle burned last year on July 4. The southern half burned the day after Tropical Storm Beta on September 24 when weather was cloudy but calm.
Complex on left burned. Photo taken two weeks after Harvey.
Close up of the complex that burned. On September 2, 2020, it still looked much like it did after Harvey.
Four More Buildings Remain
Five other buildings remain on the eastern side of Marina Drive. View this post for an explanation of why buyouts take so long.
Two years ago, the County and City Parks Board announced plans to turn the area south of Hamblen into a park and trails. But so far…nothing.
Time for Plan B
It’s time to go to Plan B. Frankly, in my opinion, this latest fire underscores the need to condemn these properties as a public-safety hazard. We need to demolish them and get on with life for the good of the community and the safety of firefighters. Let’s turn these eyesores into assets. Return the area to green space NOW.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/20201005-DJI_0814.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-10-06 15:35:302020-10-06 15:39:28Last Townhomes on Timberline Drive in Forest Cove Burned to Ground
11 AM CDT 10/6/2020 – In the last hour, Delta’s winds have increased from 115 to 130 MPH, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “Delta is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with the central pressure down to 954mb. It is likely that Delta will continue to intensify and could reach 145-155mph late today before landfalling near Cancun tonight,” says Lindner.
Forecasts Continue Shifting West
Forecasters predict that Delta will cross over the tip of the Yucatan and head north toward the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has shifted the forecast track slightly to the west at their 10:00 AM advisory. “The western edge of the forecast cone is now near High Island,” explained Lindner.
Forecast track for Hurricane Delta as of 11 AM EDT Tuesday October 6. Source: National Hurricane Center
Landfall Still Most Likely in Louisiana
“Forecast models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to indicate that Delta will turn toward the north of the NW Gulf of Mexico and likely landfall along the central or SE LA coast late Friday. Given the potential for a stronger hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it is possible that Delta could approach the US coast as a major hurricane.”
Various model forecasts as of 11 am CDT.
Increasing shear and cooler waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. But Delta should still be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast.
Storm 90 Miles Wide
According to the National Hurricane Center, “Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/storm_26_ens.gif?fit=800%2C600&ssl=1600800adminadmin2020-10-06 11:29:512020-10-06 11:30:00Delta Blows Up into Cat 4 Sooner than Expected; High Island Now in Forecast Cone
Twenty-four hours ago, Hurricane Delta was simply potential tropical cyclone #26. As of 8 P.M. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center indicated #26 had progressed from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane in 24 hours. By tomorrow night, Delta should become a major hurricane as it crosses the resort areas on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will de-intensify before it makes landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.
Winds Could Increase from 75 to 120 mph
Low wind sheer and warm waters in the northwest Caribbean will allow rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The storm already has sustained winds of 75 mph. NHC gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. That’s roughly another 40 to 45 mph.
Track Shifts Slightly West
The NHC has shifted the track envelope westward over today, bringing the storm closer to Houston, though we are still slightly outside the cone.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Force Winds Currently Extend 70 miles From Center
NHC expects additional rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Delta, they say, should become a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
At this point, the Houston area has a 10-30% probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from Delta.
Louisiana to Western Florida Faces Largest Danger
NHC advises, “Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.”
Impact to Texas Coast?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says, “Swells will be increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by mid week with heights increasing into the 5-10 foot range by Wednesday. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast. Current projections indicate 1.0-1.5 feet above normal levels at times of high tides Thursday and Friday. This is subject to change based on the intensity and wind field of Delta over the central and NW Gulf late this week.”
While SE TX is currently outside the “error cone” and direct impacts appear unlikely, Lindner says that its important to closely monitor forecasts for any changes in the track.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 9PM on Monday, 10/5/2020based on data from the NHC and HCFCD
1133 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/234234.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-10-05 21:01:382020-10-05 21:17:11Delta Explodes into Hurricane; Should Become Major Hurricane by Wednesday; Track Shifts Slightly West
Last Townhomes on Timberline Drive in Forest Cove Burned to Ground
On September 24th, I noted some chatter online about another fire in the Forest Cove townhome complex between Hamblen Road and the West Fork. I went there last night to see what had happened. It was very disheartening. Five more townhomes had burned to the ground. Nothing remained but ashes.
Why We Should Not Build So Close to Rivers
Not long ago, dozens of families lived in this complex. They had hopes and dreams. Children played in the street. Neighbors looked after each other. Couples got married by the river. Everyone shared a love a nature. Sure, they had frequent floods. But the homes were designed around that. Then came Harvey.
Water reached 17 to 23 feet into the third floors of townhomes. After a night of terror in which 240,000 cubic feet per second literally swept some structures off their foundations, residents returned to a wasteland. It was so bad, that FEMA even came here to film a video about the ravages of Harvey. Now, it’s even worse.
Many people who once lived here, like Jennifer Parks, won’t even venture into the neighborhood. They find the memories too traumatic. Here’s what her once-proud townhome looks like today. This was the fourth fire in that neighborhood since the start of 2019.
Photos of Latest Fire
The northern half of the complex in the red rectangle burned last year on July 4. The southern half burned the day after Tropical Storm Beta on September 24 when weather was cloudy but calm.
Four More Buildings Remain
Five other buildings remain on the eastern side of Marina Drive. View this post for an explanation of why buyouts take so long.
Two years ago, the County and City Parks Board announced plans to turn the area south of Hamblen into a park and trails. But so far…nothing.
Time for Plan B
It’s time to go to Plan B. Frankly, in my opinion, this latest fire underscores the need to condemn these properties as a public-safety hazard. We need to demolish them and get on with life for the good of the community and the safety of firefighters. Let’s turn these eyesores into assets. Return the area to green space NOW.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Delta Blows Up into Cat 4 Sooner than Expected; High Island Now in Forecast Cone
11 AM CDT 10/6/2020 – In the last hour, Delta’s winds have increased from 115 to 130 MPH, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “Delta is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with the central pressure down to 954mb. It is likely that Delta will continue to intensify and could reach 145-155mph late today before landfalling near Cancun tonight,” says Lindner.
Forecasts Continue Shifting West
Forecasters predict that Delta will cross over the tip of the Yucatan and head north toward the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has shifted the forecast track slightly to the west at their 10:00 AM advisory. “The western edge of the forecast cone is now near High Island,” explained Lindner.
Landfall Still Most Likely in Louisiana
“Forecast models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to indicate that Delta will turn toward the north of the NW Gulf of Mexico and likely landfall along the central or SE LA coast late Friday. Given the potential for a stronger hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it is possible that Delta could approach the US coast as a major hurricane.”
Increasing shear and cooler waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. But Delta should still be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast.
Storm 90 Miles Wide
According to the National Hurricane Center, “Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).”
Delta continues to exceed expectations. Just last night, forecasters predicted Delta would become a major hurricane by Wednesday, not Tuesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Delta Explodes into Hurricane; Should Become Major Hurricane by Wednesday; Track Shifts Slightly West
Twenty-four hours ago, Hurricane Delta was simply potential tropical cyclone #26. As of 8 P.M. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center indicated #26 had progressed from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane in 24 hours. By tomorrow night, Delta should become a major hurricane as it crosses the resort areas on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will de-intensify before it makes landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.
Winds Could Increase from 75 to 120 mph
Low wind sheer and warm waters in the northwest Caribbean will allow rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The storm already has sustained winds of 75 mph. NHC gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. That’s roughly another 40 to 45 mph.
Track Shifts Slightly West
The NHC has shifted the track envelope westward over today, bringing the storm closer to Houston, though we are still slightly outside the cone.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Currently Extend 70 miles From Center
NHC expects additional rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Delta, they say, should become a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
Louisiana to Western Florida Faces Largest Danger
NHC advises, “Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.”
Impact to Texas Coast?
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says, “Swells will be increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by mid week with heights increasing into the 5-10 foot range by Wednesday. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast. Current projections indicate 1.0-1.5 feet above normal levels at times of high tides Thursday and Friday. This is subject to change based on the intensity and wind field of Delta over the central and NW Gulf late this week.”
While SE TX is currently outside the “error cone” and direct impacts appear unlikely, Lindner says that its important to closely monitor forecasts for any changes in the track.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 9PM on Monday, 10/5/2020 based on data from the NHC and HCFCD
1133 Days since Hurricane Harvey