As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.
Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.
Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.
Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles
Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Here’s what Weather Live predicts the footprint of the storm will look like Friday morning at 7 AM. That blue dot represents Kingwood.
Lake Houston Area Impacts
NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.
NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.
Expected Rainfall
The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.
Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.
Storm Surge Warnings
One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD
1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screenshot-2020-10-08-at-2.56.39-PM-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-10-08 17:23:202020-10-08 17:30:54Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone
1 P.M. Wednesday, October 7, 2020 – As of 1 P.M. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued three watches affecting the Houston region in conjunction with Hurricane Delta:
Hurricane watch from High Island TX to Grand Isle, LA
Tropical Storm watch from San Luis Pass to High Island including all of Galveston Bay
Storm surge watch from High Island, TX to the Alabama/Florida Border
Watches mean conditions could develop in the area, most often within the next 48 hours.
Swells will build into the 15-20ft range offshore on Thursday into Friday and 7-12 feet near the coast. This will result in wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches and likely some degree of coastal flooding at the typical vulnerable locations.
Cone Still Includes Parts of East Texas
The National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Delta has now passed over the Yucatan. It weakened over land, but should strengthen again into a major Hurricane over warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta will move northwest today and then shift north on Thursday, according to NHC. By Friday morning, most of the central Gulf Coast will feel Delta in the form of higher winds, tides and storm surge.
While the cone of uncertainty associated with Hurricane Delta has consistently focused east of the Houston Area, it’s important to understand that ANYWHERE in the cone has an equal chance of being directly hit. And Houston is still near the western side of the cone.
Houston Most Likely Will Be on Dry Side
Luckily, Houston should be on the dry side of this storm. So we will likely not receive flooding rains, as least as far inland as the Lake Houston Area. The graphic below from the National Weather Service shows most of the predicted rainfall will happen east of us.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorology, says, “Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta.”
Wind is Primary Threat in Lake Houston Area
The NHC has adjusted its intensity forecast downward for Delta. However, it should still regain major hurricane status. The wind field will likely grow in size as the storm approaches the northern Gulf coast. That will increase the storm surge and wind threats. At this time, the NHC forecasts that the Lake Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
The most likely arrival time of those winds is Friday morning.
Don’t plan a picnic under the old oak tree for Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Squalls on the western side of the circulation of Delta will begin to move onshore and into the area on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday along with gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds may be possible over the SE and E parts of the area, especially Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, and southeast Harris Counties. But this will depend on the overall expansion of the wind field of Delta on Thursday and Friday.”
Posted by Bob Rehak at 2 PM on Wednesday 10/7/2020based on information from HCFCD, NWS and NHC
1135 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 384 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Potential-Storm-Surge-for-Delta.jpg?fit=1200%2C1175&ssl=111751200adminadmin2020-10-07 14:17:152020-10-07 16:59:51Hurricane Delta Watch from High Island to Grand Isle; Tropical Storm Watch for Galveston Bay
5PM CDT, Tuesday, October 6, 2020 – Hurricane Delta, now a Cat 4, continues to strengthen and the track continues to shift slightly west. In this afternoon’s update, the NHC predicts the storm could reach 155 MPH by tonight and the cone of uncertainty now bisects Galveston Bay. Just this morning, the western edge was at High Island.
Delta intensified impressively over the last 24 hours with winds increasing more than 100 mph. Delta continues to move toward the WNW at 15mph and this motion is expected to continue until landfall on the NE Yucatan tonight near Cancun.
Official NHC forecast track as of 5PM EDT Tuesday October 6. Note that the NHC now shows Delta as a MAJOR (M) Hurricane all the way to the US Gulf Coast.
Track
Delta will quickly move across the NE Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, Delta should begin a turn toward the NW and N over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. It remains unclear when and how fast this turn transpires. This will have impacts on where and when Delta will make landfall on the US Gulf coast. Most models show landfall over the central Louisiana coast around Vermillion Bay, but the European model continues to take the storm farther west.
The official NHC forecast shows the western edge of the forecast error cone through Galveston Bay and the eastern edge near the central MS coast.
National Hurricane Center
Intensity
Delta continues to be in a favorable environment for intensification. NHC brings the hurricane to 155mph tonight. After landfall on the Yucatan, Delta will continue to find near ideal conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico and will likely reach a secondary peak intensity around 130-140mph on Thursday.
By Thursday evening as Delta begins to turn northward and accelerate toward the US Gulf coast, increasing shear is likely, but increasing forward speed could negate this shear.
Delta will then move over cooler shelf waters in the northern Gulf, but the fast forward speed of Delta could result in a slower rate of weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
It is uncertain how strong Delta will be at landfall along the US Gulf coast, but the general consensus is somewhere between 105-125 mph.
Delta’s wind field will expand over the central Gulf on Thursday. NHC forecasts Delta will approach the northern Gulf as a large hurricane and this will support impacts well away from the center – both to the west and east.
Impacts
Given the changes today, expect increasing swells and tides along the upper TX coast as early as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday and Friday. Given the expanding wind field, tropical storm force winds (40mph) may get close to portions of eastern SE TX on Friday – mainly along and east of a line from San Luis Pass to Liberty.
Additionally, some squalls may move into the region on Thursday night and Friday with gusty winds. As noted on the graphic below there is between a 30-50% chance of sustained 40mph winds over the southeastern portions of the area. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds would be around midday on Friday.
Any deviation in the forecast track to the west will increase the impacts along the upper TX coast and persons should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image001-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-10-06 17:18:252020-10-06 17:18:33Delta Will Reach 155 MPH By Tonight; Cone Now Includes Galveston Bay
Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone
As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.
At its 4 PM Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center shows Delta in the middle of the Gulf and headed toward Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.
Warnings from Sargent, TX East
Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.
Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.
Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles
Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Lake Houston Area Impacts
NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.
NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.
Expected Rainfall
The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.
Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.
Storm Surge Warnings
One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD
1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda
Hurricane Delta Watch from High Island to Grand Isle; Tropical Storm Watch for Galveston Bay
1 P.M. Wednesday, October 7, 2020 – As of 1 P.M. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued three watches affecting the Houston region in conjunction with Hurricane Delta:
Watches mean conditions could develop in the area, most often within the next 48 hours.
Swells will build into the 15-20ft range offshore on Thursday into Friday and 7-12 feet near the coast. This will result in wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches and likely some degree of coastal flooding at the typical vulnerable locations.
Cone Still Includes Parts of East Texas
The National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Delta has now passed over the Yucatan. It weakened over land, but should strengthen again into a major Hurricane over warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta will move northwest today and then shift north on Thursday, according to NHC. By Friday morning, most of the central Gulf Coast will feel Delta in the form of higher winds, tides and storm surge.
Houston Most Likely Will Be on Dry Side
Luckily, Houston should be on the dry side of this storm. So we will likely not receive flooding rains, as least as far inland as the Lake Houston Area. The graphic below from the National Weather Service shows most of the predicted rainfall will happen east of us.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorology, says, “Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta.”
Wind is Primary Threat in Lake Houston Area
The NHC has adjusted its intensity forecast downward for Delta. However, it should still regain major hurricane status. The wind field will likely grow in size as the storm approaches the northern Gulf coast. That will increase the storm surge and wind threats. At this time, the NHC forecasts that the Lake Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
The most likely arrival time of those winds is Friday morning.
Don’t plan a picnic under the old oak tree for Friday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Squalls on the western side of the circulation of Delta will begin to move onshore and into the area on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday along with gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds may be possible over the SE and E parts of the area, especially Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, and southeast Harris Counties. But this will depend on the overall expansion of the wind field of Delta on Thursday and Friday.”
For More Information
For the most up-to-date forecasts on Hurricane Delta, check the National Hurricane Center.
For detailed local weather forecasts, check the National Weather Service.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 2 PM on Wednesday 10/7/2020 based on information from HCFCD, NWS and NHC
1135 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 384 since Imelda
Delta Will Reach 155 MPH By Tonight; Cone Now Includes Galveston Bay
5PM CDT, Tuesday, October 6, 2020 – Hurricane Delta, now a Cat 4, continues to strengthen and the track continues to shift slightly west. In this afternoon’s update, the NHC predicts the storm could reach 155 MPH by tonight and the cone of uncertainty now bisects Galveston Bay. Just this morning, the western edge was at High Island.
Delta intensified impressively over the last 24 hours with winds increasing more than 100 mph. Delta continues to move toward the WNW at 15mph and this motion is expected to continue until landfall on the NE Yucatan tonight near Cancun.
Track
Delta will quickly move across the NE Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, Delta should begin a turn toward the NW and N over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. It remains unclear when and how fast this turn transpires. This will have impacts on where and when Delta will make landfall on the US Gulf coast. Most models show landfall over the central Louisiana coast around Vermillion Bay, but the European model continues to take the storm farther west.
Intensity
Delta continues to be in a favorable environment for intensification. NHC brings the hurricane to 155mph tonight. After landfall on the Yucatan, Delta will continue to find near ideal conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico and will likely reach a secondary peak intensity around 130-140mph on Thursday.
By Thursday evening as Delta begins to turn northward and accelerate toward the US Gulf coast, increasing shear is likely, but increasing forward speed could negate this shear.
It is uncertain how strong Delta will be at landfall along the US Gulf coast, but the general consensus is somewhere between 105-125 mph.
Delta’s wind field will expand over the central Gulf on Thursday. NHC forecasts Delta will approach the northern Gulf as a large hurricane and this will support impacts well away from the center – both to the west and east.
Impacts
Given the changes today, expect increasing swells and tides along the upper TX coast as early as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday and Friday. Given the expanding wind field, tropical storm force winds (40mph) may get close to portions of eastern SE TX on Friday – mainly along and east of a line from San Luis Pass to Liberty.
Additionally, some squalls may move into the region on Thursday night and Friday with gusty winds. As noted on the graphic below there is between a 30-50% chance of sustained 40mph winds over the southeastern portions of the area. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds would be around midday on Friday.
Any deviation in the forecast track to the west will increase the impacts along the upper TX coast and persons should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020
1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey