Overnight, Laura turned into a hurricane. At 5:25 this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, issued the following:
Hurricane Watches extended west to San Luis Pass…now include Harris and Galveston Counties
Major hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
Enact hurricane plans now. Follow all recommendations from local officials.
At 7:00 a.m., he issued another warning saying that:
Laura upgraded to a hurricane…intensification will continue through landfall.
Mandatory evacuation order for Galveston Island effective immediately.
Discussion
Laura is now over the SE Gulf of Mexico and moving toward the WNW after having jogged westward overnight. Deep convection has developed over and near the center this morning. Some light northerly system continues to impact Laura, which continues to track to the south of predictions.
Track:
The steering pattern that will bring Laura to the NW Gulf of Mexico remains somewhat in flux this morning. Laura will turn northwest and then north. But uncertainty remains as to when Laura will make this turn. Overnight model guidance now delays this turn a little longer and brings Laura more toward the upper Texas coast. NHC may have to shift their forecast track a bit more westward later this morning.
Forecast track shifted back west overnight bringing Houston into cone of uncertainty.Track forecast could shift further westward later this morning, bringing Houston closer to center of storm.
While uncertainty remains in the eventual outcome of Laura, preparations for landfall of a major hurricane along the upper TX coast should be well underway.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the coast Wednesday evening and spread inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Intensity:
A central core is starting to form with Laura and overall circulation of the system is looking better defined. Conditions in the central Gulf today favor a period of rapid intensification. Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane along the SE TX/SW LA coast late Wednesday.
Laura is a fairly large storm and impacts will be far reaching from the impact point extending both west and east.
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
Impacts
Rainfall:
Will rainfall forecast at 2-4 inches east of I-45 and 1-3 inches west of I-45, but this may need to be increased later today. WPC has placed areas east of I-45 in a slight risk for flash flooding.
Most of Houston falls into the light and dark green bands on the left, predicted to get 1-4 inches of rain.NHC how gives the Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding (10-20%).
Storm Surge:
Still looking at 2-4 feet above ground level in Galveston Bay and 4-6 feet on Bolivar with levels of 7-11 feet east of High Island into Louisiana. Should the track shift more west, these values around Galveston Bay would potentially need to be increased significantly.
Wind:
Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the area Wednesday evening. Expect winds of 40-50mph across Harris County northward along I-45 with hurricane conditions becoming increasingly likely over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Any additional shift westward in the track will bring stronger winds across the area.
Be prepared for power outages starting Wednesday evening.
Actions
Enact hurricane plans now.
Follow all recommendation on evacuation from local officials.
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.
High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX…4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 with input from CoH, Harris County, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and ReadyHarris.
1092 Days After Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/093605_peak_surge.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-25 08:43:282020-08-25 15:01:42Laura Upgraded to Hurricane; Will Intensify Through Landfall; Mandatory Evacuation for Galveston Island
Many anxious flood victims worry openly on social media about about the possibility of flooding by back-to-back tropical events. Should we lower Lake Conroe? Is it too late? Will we flood again? Why aren’t they releasing water?
The novelty of having two tropical storms in the Gulf simultaneously has added a high degree of uncertainty to weather forecasting at the moment. The forecast tracks, intensities and dangers of Marco and Laura seem to change every few hours.
This is precisely why we need more and bigger flood gates on Lake Houston.
By the time we are certain what will happen with these storms, it will likely be too late to release water if we need to.
The bewildering multitude of competing weather forecast models complicates matters. They show landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi just two days before the storms’ arrival. It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once got. It said, “A man with two clocks never knows what time it is.”
The National Hurricane Center shows only a slight chance of flash flooding for the areas hit directly by Marco and those are far east of us. Rainfall potential from Marco through Wednesday evening for the Houston Area is less than an inch, according to the latest NHC predictions.
Even though Laura’s cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly east today, the Houston Area remains on the western edge of the cone.
At the moment, NHC predicts Laura will bring Houston 2-4 inches of rain, and the Lake Conroe area less than 2.
That’s enough to raise the chance of flash flooding to 5-10%.
Laura’s maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts little change in Laura’s strength today, but predicts the storm will strengthen when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. They foreast Laura will become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily to the northeast and east of the center. As Laura approaches the Gulf Coast, swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Texas coast between 8 a.m. and p.m. on Wednesday. Most of the Houston Area will have a 40-50% chance of experiencing winds greater than 39 mph.
Alert Houston has just issued the following notice:
“The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Houston. Coastal portions of the city are also under a Storm Surge Watch. Although the exact track and intensity of Laura is still unknown, Houston residents should pay close attention and begin taking steps in the event an emergency situation develops.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, put a finer point on it. “Tropical storm force winds are likely along and east of I-45 with sustained winds of 35-45mph across portions of Galveston, Harris, Montgomery and Walker Counties. Strong winds of 45-55mph will be possible across Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and Trinity Counties. It is possible that near hurricane conditions could scrape close to eastern Chambers and eastern Liberty counties.”
The answer is obvious. You enlarge the discharge capacity of Lake Houston by adding more and bigger gates to the spillway.
Gates on Lake Houston have one-fifteenth the discharge capacity of those on Lake Conroe.
Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. 150,000 cubic feet per second vs. 10,000. With that in mind, the likelihood, at this hour (5pm Monday), is that water released from Lake Conroe could not get into the Gulf before Wednesday when the storms arrive.
And that, in a sentence, is why we need more and bigger flood gates on the Lake Houston Dam. Remember Marco and Laura, and that knot in the pit of your stomach, the next time the subject of gates comes up.
By the way, neither Lake Conroe, nor Lake Houston, is releasing water at this time. Lake Conroe is at 199.76 feet above sea level and Lake Houston is at 41.6 feet. Both are already below their normal levels, though not as low as many would prefer. At 4:24 this afternoon, the SJRA issued a press release saying that, “We continue to watch Laura closely. Right now the projected totals of rainfall in the Lake Conroe watershed are very low.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 at 5 pm
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Screen-Shot-2019-02-04-at-10.12.58-PM-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C822&ssl=18221500adminadmin2020-08-24 16:42:522020-08-24 17:36:06Remember Uncertainty With Marco, Laura; It’s Why We Need More, Bigger Gates on Lake Houston
At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.
NHC expects Marco to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday over southeast Texas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center.
Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives
As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.
The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).
The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.
Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.
“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.
Models still show a wide spread of possible landfalls, but the largest cluster is on the TX/LA border.
Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”
Laura Intensity
Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.
“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.
Laura will likely reach hurricane status over the central Gulf and be near major hurricane status over the NW Gulf on Wednesday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Impacts from Laura
As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”
However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:
2-4 inches east of I-45
1-3 inches west of I-45
Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tides/Storm Surge:
Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide.
Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.
Winds:
Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.
Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.
Preparedness
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.
Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.
Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.
Keep gas tanks full.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/092405_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-24 07:38:292020-08-24 08:01:41Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher
Laura Upgraded to Hurricane; Will Intensify Through Landfall; Mandatory Evacuation for Galveston Island
Overnight, Laura turned into a hurricane. At 5:25 this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, issued the following:
Hurricane Watches extended west to San Luis Pass…now include Harris and Galveston Counties
Major hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
Enact hurricane plans now. Follow all recommendations from local officials.
At 7:00 a.m., he issued another warning saying that:
Laura upgraded to a hurricane…intensification will continue through landfall.
Mandatory evacuation order for Galveston Island effective immediately.
Discussion
Laura is now over the SE Gulf of Mexico and moving toward the WNW after having jogged westward overnight. Deep convection has developed over and near the center this morning. Some light northerly system continues to impact Laura, which continues to track to the south of predictions.
Track:
The steering pattern that will bring Laura to the NW Gulf of Mexico remains somewhat in flux this morning. Laura will turn northwest and then north. But uncertainty remains as to when Laura will make this turn. Overnight model guidance now delays this turn a little longer and brings Laura more toward the upper Texas coast. NHC may have to shift their forecast track a bit more westward later this morning.
Tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the coast Wednesday evening and spread inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Intensity:
A central core is starting to form with Laura and overall circulation of the system is looking better defined. Conditions in the central Gulf today favor a period of rapid intensification. Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane along the SE TX/SW LA coast late Wednesday.
Laura is a fairly large storm and impacts will be far reaching from the impact point extending both west and east.
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
Impacts
Rainfall:
Will rainfall forecast at 2-4 inches east of I-45 and 1-3 inches west of I-45, but this may need to be increased later today. WPC has placed areas east of I-45 in a slight risk for flash flooding.
Storm Surge:
Still looking at 2-4 feet above ground level in Galveston Bay and 4-6 feet on Bolivar with levels of 7-11 feet east of High Island into Louisiana. Should the track shift more west, these values around Galveston Bay would potentially need to be increased significantly.
Wind:
Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the area Wednesday evening. Expect winds of 40-50mph across Harris County northward along I-45 with hurricane conditions becoming increasingly likely over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Any additional shift westward in the track will bring stronger winds across the area.
Be prepared for power outages starting Wednesday evening.
Actions
Enact hurricane plans now.
Follow all recommendation on evacuation from local officials.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
The National Hurricane Center advises that:
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.
Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
For inland watches and warnings, monitor the local National Weather Service forecast office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 with input from CoH, Harris County, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and ReadyHarris.
1092 Days After Hurricane Harvey
Remember Uncertainty With Marco, Laura; It’s Why We Need More, Bigger Gates on Lake Houston
Many anxious flood victims worry openly on social media about about the possibility of flooding by back-to-back tropical events. Should we lower Lake Conroe? Is it too late? Will we flood again? Why aren’t they releasing water?
The novelty of having two tropical storms in the Gulf simultaneously has added a high degree of uncertainty to weather forecasting at the moment. The forecast tracks, intensities and dangers of Marco and Laura seem to change every few hours.
This is precisely why we need more and bigger flood gates on Lake Houston.
The bewildering multitude of competing weather forecast models complicates matters. They show landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi just two days before the storms’ arrival. It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once got. It said, “A man with two clocks never knows what time it is.”
Marco Weakening Before Making Landfall
Since this morning, the cone of uncertainty for Marco has shifted inland again and the storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The only coastal watches or warnings remaining in effect have to do with Laura which will follow Marco later this week. (See more below.)
The National Hurricane Center shows only a slight chance of flash flooding for the areas hit directly by Marco and those are far east of us. Rainfall potential from Marco through Wednesday evening for the Houston Area is less than an inch, according to the latest NHC predictions.
At 1 p.m. Monday, the NHC issued an advisory stating that, “It is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued.”
Laura Remains Potent Threat
Even though Laura’s cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly east today, the Houston Area remains on the western edge of the cone.
At the moment, NHC predicts Laura will bring Houston 2-4 inches of rain, and the Lake Conroe area less than 2.
That’s enough to raise the chance of flash flooding to 5-10%.
Laura’s maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts little change in Laura’s strength today, but predicts the storm will strengthen when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. They foreast Laura will become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily to the northeast and east of the center. As Laura approaches the Gulf Coast, swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Texas coast between 8 a.m. and p.m. on Wednesday. Most of the Houston Area will have a 40-50% chance of experiencing winds greater than 39 mph.
Alert Houston has just issued the following notice:
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, put a finer point on it. “Tropical storm force winds are likely along and east of I-45 with sustained winds of 35-45mph across portions of Galveston, Harris, Montgomery and Walker Counties. Strong winds of 45-55mph will be possible across Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and Trinity Counties. It is possible that near hurricane conditions could scrape close to eastern Chambers and eastern Liberty counties.”
To Lower or Not to Lower, That is the Question
So with:
…what do you do? Order the lakes lowered or keep them where they are?
The answer is obvious. You enlarge the discharge capacity of Lake Houston by adding more and bigger gates to the spillway.
Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. 150,000 cubic feet per second vs. 10,000. With that in mind, the likelihood, at this hour (5pm Monday), is that water released from Lake Conroe could not get into the Gulf before Wednesday when the storms arrive.
And that, in a sentence, is why we need more and bigger flood gates on the Lake Houston Dam. Remember Marco and Laura, and that knot in the pit of your stomach, the next time the subject of gates comes up.
By the way, neither Lake Conroe, nor Lake Houston, is releasing water at this time. Lake Conroe is at 199.76 feet above sea level and Lake Houston is at 41.6 feet. Both are already below their normal levels, though not as low as many would prefer. At 4:24 this afternoon, the SJRA issued a press release saying that, “We continue to watch Laura closely. Right now the projected totals of rainfall in the Lake Conroe watershed are very low.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 at 5 pm
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher
At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.
As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives
As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.
The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).
The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.
Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.
“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.
Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”
Laura Intensity
Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.
“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.
Impacts from Laura
As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”
However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:
Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tides/Storm Surge:
Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide.
Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.
Winds:
Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.
Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.
Preparedness
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.
Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.
Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.
Keep gas tanks full.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey