As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.
Current positions of both storms as of 1:19 EDT Sunday, 8/23/2020.
NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT
At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.
The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.
However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).
The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.
After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”
Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area
Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.
NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.
As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.
The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.
Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.
Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts
Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/174033_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-23 15:13:092020-08-23 15:13:24NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West
Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.
Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura
Houston is now only on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty for Marco.
Even though forecasts for Laura have been shifting steadily west, NHC now shows Houston outside the cone of uncertainty.
Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Laura and 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Marco.
They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Wind Predictions
We could feel the arrival of tropical storm force winds from Marco around mid-day on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds from Laura could be felt in Houston on Wednesday morning.
However, there’s only a 20-30% chance we will feel 40 mph winds from either Laura or Marco.
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).
As of 4:50 EDT Saturday, NOAA is predicting less than an inch of rainfall for the Houston Area.
NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.
As of 4:50 pm Saturday, NOAA predicts Houston has only a 5% chance of flash flooding from the storms.
Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date
Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.
You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/205347.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-22 17:49:102020-08-22 17:50:44Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana
Harris County published the agenda for next Tuesday’s Commissioners Court meeting. Once again, the purchase of Woodridge Village is on the agenda. The Perry Homes property contributed to flooding in Elm Grove Village twice last year, after the developer clear cut the land but did not yet install detention. Now, even with detention installed, the amount will likely be insufficient to forestall future floods because the engineers calculated the volume needed based on pre-Atlas 14 rainfall estimates. The new Atlas-14 estimates are about 40% higher than the old ones.
Since the 2019 floods, both the City and anxious Elm Grove residents have been urging the county to purchase the property and turn it into a regional floodwater detention facility to help protect homes in the Taylor Gully Watershed.
Commissioners first considered the purchase in April. When they could not reach agreement then, the issue resurfaced in several other meetings, but Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis kept heaping new conditions on the deal. First he wanted the City of Houston to pay for half the purchase price. Then, half the construction cost of building additional detention. The the City also had to adopt Atlas 14. And the City had to upgrade multiple development regulations to become consistent with County regs. And the City couldn’t just promise to do those things in an interlocal agreement. Future tense. They had to actually do them. Present tense.
Recommendation that the court find a public necessity exists for the Flood Control District to purchase Tracts G503-06-00-01-001.0 and G503-06-00-01-002.0 in Montgomery County from Figure Four Partners, Ltd., in the amount of $14,019,316 plus closing costs for the Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin, and that the Real Property Division Manager or Assistant Division Manager be authorized to sign any agreements or closing documents associated with this transaction.
Documentation attached to the agenda item mentions the previous conditions put on the sale, but also focuses on “public necessity.” Declaring a property a public necessity is necessary before the county could purchase it. Even if commissioners approve this agenda item, they would need to revisit the issue to ensure the City has complied with all conditions the commissioners previously imposed on the sale.
The letter from the County Engineer to commissioners also proposes an inter-local agreement, which Commissioner Ellis previously objected to.
Status of Perry Detention Ponds
Excavation of all five detention ponds on the Perry site is complete, although some finish word remains on N3. Contractors finished S1 and S2 earlier this year. Since then, they have also virtually completed N1, N2 and N3. All pictures below were taken within the last two weeks.
N1 in the northwest corner of Woodridge.N2 in the middle part of the western perimeter.N3 along the eastern border of the site.
Together, these three ponds comprise 77% of the total acre/feet of detention on the site.
The newly excavated increase of capacity will help protect Elm Grove residents in rainfalls up to 12.17 inches. But complying with the new Atlas-14 regulations would require protection from a 17.3 inch rain in 24 hours. That’s about 40% more. Hence the need to purchase the property before it is developed into homesites.
TD 14 could test LJA’s design of the ponds when the tropical system makes landfall next Tuesday.
Latest Update on Tropics
At 7 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued updates on the two tropical systems that threaten the northern Gulf. Both could affect the Texas/Louisiana area on Tuesday. That should be around the exact time commissioners are scheduled to meet virtually. I’m assuming the meeting could be postponed if the storm turns into an emergency.
I’ve heard rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 18 inches for the storm(s). Here’s what the storms are currently doing according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Depression 14 is currently dumping three to six inches of rain in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
Tropical Storm Laura is also expected to dump three to six inches of rain in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, with isolated totals up to eight inches.
NHC predicts both storms will intensify into hurricanes in coming days.
Only this morning, the cone was centered on Mississippi and Alabama.
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center, but the storm is projected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall.
If these two storms merge, things could get interesting. Compared to the last two days, the cone of uncertainty for TS Laura keeps shifting to the west. And its wind field now includes the Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020
1088 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20200807-DJI_0369.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-08-21 19:26:362020-08-21 19:35:22Harris County Commissioners to Consider Purchase of Woodridge Village Again in Tuesday Meeting
NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West
As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.
NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT
At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.
The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.
However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).
The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.
After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”
Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area
Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.
NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.
As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.
The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.
Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.
Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts
Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”
So what should you do? Continue to monitor the progress of both storms throughout the week at Hurricanes.gov or on your favorite weather channel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana
Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.
Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura
Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.
Intensity and Rainfall Predictions
Forecasters predicted Marco will become a hurricane tonight or Sunday, and remain at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday.
They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Wind Predictions
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).
NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.
Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date
Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
NHC advises monitoring the progress of both storms several times a day until they pass. The NHC has started issuing updates every two to three hours for the duration of the storms.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.
You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Commissioners to Consider Purchase of Woodridge Village Again in Tuesday Meeting
Harris County published the agenda for next Tuesday’s Commissioners Court meeting. Once again, the purchase of Woodridge Village is on the agenda. The Perry Homes property contributed to flooding in Elm Grove Village twice last year, after the developer clear cut the land but did not yet install detention. Now, even with detention installed, the amount will likely be insufficient to forestall future floods because the engineers calculated the volume needed based on pre-Atlas 14 rainfall estimates. The new Atlas-14 estimates are about 40% higher than the old ones.
Since the 2019 floods, both the City and anxious Elm Grove residents have been urging the county to purchase the property and turn it into a regional floodwater detention facility to help protect homes in the Taylor Gully Watershed.
Commissioners first considered the purchase in April. When they could not reach agreement then, the issue resurfaced in several other meetings, but Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis kept heaping new conditions on the deal. First he wanted the City of Houston to pay for half the purchase price. Then, half the construction cost of building additional detention. The the City also had to adopt Atlas 14. And the City had to upgrade multiple development regulations to become consistent with County regs. And the City couldn’t just promise to do those things in an interlocal agreement. Future tense. They had to actually do them. Present tense.
Agenda Item 1T Under County Engineer
Item 1T Reads:
Recommendation that the court find a public necessity exists for the Flood Control District to purchase Tracts G503-06-00-01-001.0 and G503-06-00-01-002.0 in Montgomery County from Figure Four Partners, Ltd., in the amount of $14,019,316 plus closing costs for the Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin, and that the Real Property Division Manager or Assistant Division Manager be authorized to sign any agreements or closing documents associated with this transaction.
Documentation attached to the agenda item mentions the previous conditions put on the sale, but also focuses on “public necessity.” Declaring a property a public necessity is necessary before the county could purchase it. Even if commissioners approve this agenda item, they would need to revisit the issue to ensure the City has complied with all conditions the commissioners previously imposed on the sale.
The letter from the County Engineer to commissioners also proposes an inter-local agreement, which Commissioner Ellis previously objected to.
Status of Perry Detention Ponds
Excavation of all five detention ponds on the Perry site is complete, although some finish word remains on N3. Contractors finished S1 and S2 earlier this year. Since then, they have also virtually completed N1, N2 and N3. All pictures below were taken within the last two weeks.
Together, these three ponds comprise 77% of the total acre/feet of detention on the site.
The newly excavated increase of capacity will help protect Elm Grove residents in rainfalls up to 12.17 inches. But complying with the new Atlas-14 regulations would require protection from a 17.3 inch rain in 24 hours. That’s about 40% more. Hence the need to purchase the property before it is developed into homesites.
Latest Update on Tropics
At 7 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued updates on the two tropical systems that threaten the northern Gulf. Both could affect the Texas/Louisiana area on Tuesday. That should be around the exact time commissioners are scheduled to meet virtually. I’m assuming the meeting could be postponed if the storm turns into an emergency.
I’ve heard rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 18 inches for the storm(s). Here’s what the storms are currently doing according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Depression 14 is currently dumping three to six inches of rain in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
Tropical Storm Laura is also expected to dump three to six inches of rain in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, with isolated totals up to eight inches.
NHC predicts both storms will intensify into hurricanes in coming days.
If these two storms merge, things could get interesting. Compared to the last two days, the cone of uncertainty for TS Laura keeps shifting to the west. And its wind field now includes the Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020
1088 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.