Tropical Depression 8 is very close to becoming a tropical storm, likely later this evening or early Friday. TD 8 is continuing to move toward the WNW at 8mph. However, the track of the storm has shifted slightly south. That should reduce both rainfall and winds in the Houston area, compared to yesterday’s forecast.
Regardless, tropical storm warnings are issued for the TX coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. And a tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from San Luis Pass to High Island.
Landfall Now Predicted Between Corpus and Rockport
NHC now predicts landfall between Corpus and Rockport around mid-day on Saturday as an intensifying tropical storm, packing winds up to 60 mph. Some models predict it could become a hurricane.
3-5 Inches Still Possible South of I-10
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist now predicts, “3-5 inches of widespread rainfall south of I-10 with isolated higher totals. “Much of this will likely come from various feeder bands. Maximum totals of 10 inches or greater will be possible from Matagorda Bay southward.”
Winds in 20-30 mph Range
Winds across the Houston region could increase to 20-30 mph by early Friday. Higher winds will occur farther southwest. Says Lindner, “Sustained tropical storm force winds will be most likely near/around Matagorda Bay on Saturday with 40-50mph. Winds of 50-60mph will be likely in the portion of the mid coast from Corpus Christi to Seadrift.”
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Source: NHC
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/image001-4.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-07-22 22:28:492020-07-22 22:48:27Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
Several deadlines are converging to force a decision on whether to purchase Woodridge Village from Perry Homes and turn it into a giant regional detention pond. Every day that passes makes that deal appear more remote for reasons I will discuss below. Luckily, Elm Grove residents have an option, which I will discuss at the end of this post. But first…
Deadline #1: Detention Ponds Nearing Completion
Contractors for Perry Homes have nearly finished all detention ponds on the site. Last week, they were cementing drainage pipes and pilot channels in place.
Gray is the lawyer for Figure Four Partners, Perry’s development subsidiary. In the letter, Gray promised the last item would be completed in 280 days. 280 days from the date of the letter (October 17th, 2019) is July 24 – this coming Friday.
Perry has said that it would not start building homes and roads until they finished work on detention ponds. With that work done, how much longer will they delay?
Deadline #2: 75 Days from County’s Redefining of Deal
Last week, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin addressed the Kingwood Executive Group. He said that after the May 19th Commissioners Court meeting in which Commissioners redefined the terms of the purchase, Perry sent a letter saying “you have 75 days or we will sell the property.”
The next Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting is July 28th. They don’t meet again until August 11. Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle is placing an item on the agenda for next Tuesday to discuss the status of the purchase.
Deadline #4: Perry Says It Has Offer Waiting in Wings
At the same meeting of Kingwood executives, Mr. Martin reported that Perry said it had an offer to buy the property. But he also questioned how firm the offer could be, given all the pending litigation.
Deadline #5: Peak of Storm Season Approaching
Nature always gets the last say. Nature could make everyone involved in this deal look bad if Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest flood again.
We’re now approaching the peak of hurricane season. Beginning in August, storms start to build rapidly. They peak on September 10. See below.
Number of Storms by Date for the last hundred years. Source: NOAA
We have two storms approaching now. One south of Louisiana. The other still in the mid-Atlantic.
Based on satellite and surface observations, a broad surface low pressure center has formed with the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. NHC has increased the chance of formation to 80% and advised that watches and/or warnings could be issued for portions of the TX and LA coast tonight or on Thursday.
Overall, says the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the organization of the system off the Texas coast is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts it “could drop 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Heaviest rains may end up close to the coast, say south of a line from High Island to Wharton. There’s still much uncertainty, although visible images this morning show a better organized system in the Gulf.”
Latest satellite images show storm in Gulf building.Gonzalo, the Atlantic storm now looks like it will track into the Caribbean by Sunday and turn into a hurricane.
The second storm intensified this morning and was given the name Gonzalo. According to Lindner, Gonzalo may weaken as it moves across the Caribbean Sea if it encounters wind shear. So forecasters have low confidence in intensity predictions. However, “small systems such as Gonzalo can have rapid fluctuations in intensity,” says Lindner. And most models agree on the path.”
Nature, as they say in poker, could soon call everyone’s hand.
However, widening and deepening Taylor Gully could take some time. And there is intense competition for resources right now. That option could not be constructed in time to head off storms for this hurricane season. So keep your fingers crossed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 307 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200712-DJI_0035.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-07-22 14:40:392020-07-22 15:00:30Deadlines Converging on Woodridge Deal; Option If Purchase Falls Through
Latest Guidance from NHC Shows Tropical Storm Veering Southwest
Tropical Depression 8 is very close to becoming a tropical storm, likely later this evening or early Friday. TD 8 is continuing to move toward the WNW at 8mph. However, the track of the storm has shifted slightly south. That should reduce both rainfall and winds in the Houston area, compared to yesterday’s forecast.
Landfall Now Predicted Between Corpus and Rockport
NHC now predicts landfall between Corpus and Rockport around mid-day on Saturday as an intensifying tropical storm, packing winds up to 60 mph. Some models predict it could become a hurricane.
3-5 Inches Still Possible South of I-10
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist now predicts, “3-5 inches of widespread rainfall south of I-10 with isolated higher totals. “Much of this will likely come from various feeder bands. Maximum totals of 10 inches or greater will be possible from Matagorda Bay southward.”
Winds in 20-30 mph Range
Winds across the Houston region could increase to 20-30 mph by early Friday. Higher winds will occur farther southwest. Says Lindner, “Sustained tropical storm force winds will be most likely near/around Matagorda Bay on Saturday with 40-50mph. Winds of 50-60mph will be likely in the portion of the mid coast from Corpus Christi to Seadrift.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 at 5 p.m.
1059 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Deadlines Converging on Woodridge Deal; Option If Purchase Falls Through
Several deadlines are converging to force a decision on whether to purchase Woodridge Village from Perry Homes and turn it into a giant regional detention pond. Every day that passes makes that deal appear more remote for reasons I will discuss below. Luckily, Elm Grove residents have an option, which I will discuss at the end of this post. But first…
Deadline #1: Detention Ponds Nearing Completion
Contractors for Perry Homes have nearly finished all detention ponds on the site. Last week, they were cementing drainage pipes and pilot channels in place.
Contractors also appeared to be building drainage swales designed to intercept runoff and channel it toward the detention ponds.
These swales were Item #6 on J. Carey Gray’s 10/17/19 letter to the City of Houston Attorney, Ronald Lewis.
Gray is the lawyer for Figure Four Partners, Perry’s development subsidiary. In the letter, Gray promised the last item would be completed in 280 days. 280 days from the date of the letter (October 17th, 2019) is July 24 – this coming Friday.
Perry has said that it would not start building homes and roads until they finished work on detention ponds. With that work done, how much longer will they delay?
Deadline #2: 75 Days from County’s Redefining of Deal
Last week, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin addressed the Kingwood Executive Group. He said that after the May 19th Commissioners Court meeting in which Commissioners redefined the terms of the purchase, Perry sent a letter saying “you have 75 days or we will sell the property.”
The City applied for a grant from the TWDB to help pay for its half of the purchase/construction costs. However, the TDWB doesn’t expect to finalize decisions on those until this winter.
Deadline #3: Upcoming Commissioners Court Meeting
The next Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting is July 28th. They don’t meet again until August 11. Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle is placing an item on the agenda for next Tuesday to discuss the status of the purchase.
Deadline #4: Perry Says It Has Offer Waiting in Wings
At the same meeting of Kingwood executives, Mr. Martin reported that Perry said it had an offer to buy the property. But he also questioned how firm the offer could be, given all the pending litigation.
Deadline #5: Peak of Storm Season Approaching
Nature always gets the last say. Nature could make everyone involved in this deal look bad if Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest flood again.
We’re now approaching the peak of hurricane season. Beginning in August, storms start to build rapidly. They peak on September 10. See below.
We have two storms approaching now. One south of Louisiana. The other still in the mid-Atlantic.
Overall, says the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the organization of the system off the Texas coast is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts it “could drop 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Heaviest rains may end up close to the coast, say south of a line from High Island to Wharton. There’s still much uncertainty, although visible images this morning show a better organized system in the Gulf.”
The second storm intensified this morning and was given the name Gonzalo. According to Lindner, Gonzalo may weaken as it moves across the Caribbean Sea if it encounters wind shear. So forecasters have low confidence in intensity predictions. However, “small systems such as Gonzalo can have rapid fluctuations in intensity,” says Lindner. And most models agree on the path.”
Nature, as they say in poker, could soon call everyone’s hand.
Option if Deal Does Not Happen
The amount of detention that Perry has built is 40% short of Atlas 14 guidelines for this area. What happens if the Woodridge Village purchase falls through? Is it the end of Elm Grove? Not necessarily.
However, widening and deepening Taylor Gully could take some time. And there is intense competition for resources right now. That option could not be constructed in time to head off storms for this hurricane season. So keep your fingers crossed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 307 since Imelda