This update on Hurricane Laura is based on information from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Hurricane Center based on their 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. updates on Wednesday 8/26/2020.
Extremely dangerous hurricane will make landfall near Sabine Pass tonight with catastrophic impacts.
All preparations must be completed by 6:00 p.m. this evening.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate late this afternoon and evening over the region.
Rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased overnight. We could now receive up to six inches.
The Lake Houston Area now has a 60-80% chance of experiencing topical-storm-force winds from Laura.Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive as early as mid-afternoon.The most likely time, however, for the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds is later this evening.
Discussion
Laura became a large and dangerous hurricane overnight with expansion of the wind field. USAF missions indicate the central pressure continues to fall. Winds are increasing. And Laura has experienced a 40 knot increase in winds in the last 24 hours. (A knot = 1.15 mph.) The eye of the hurricane is starting to clear out. Further rapid intensification is likely today.
The cone of uncertainty now shows Houston will NOT experience a direct hit from the storm, but we will still feel it. Effects from the Laura extend well outward from the center.
Track:
The center of Laura should cross the coast near Sabine Pass, TX, near the Texas/Louisiana Border. Models have tightly clustered just either side of the state line. There is high confidence that Laura will make landfall in the areas between Sea Rim State Park and Cameron LA early Thursday morning. The hurricane should move rapidly northward, up the Sabine River Valley on Thursday.
Given the fast forward motion, significant wind impacts will extend well inland along the track of Laura with wind damage likely extending 100-200 miles inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 175 miles.
Wind damage and storm surge impacts will extend well beyond the center.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Expect a catastrophic storm surge event over extreme SE TX and much of coastal Louisiana.
Strong north winds tonight may drive water levels along the north side of Galveston Island and Bolivar to elevated levels and water levels in the NW part of Galveston Bay may fall well below normal.
The following values are above ground level:
Galveston Bay: 1-3 ft
Bolivar: 2-5 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park: 6-9 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City (Including Beaumont and Lake Charles): 10-15 ft.
Large destructive waves will accompany storm surge.
Winds:
West of I-45: 30-40mph
East of I-45: 45-55mph
Chambers, Liberty, Polk Counties: 50-65mph
Jefferson, Orange Counties and Lake Charles: 110-120mph
Higher gusts will occur in squalls.
Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
The Harris County line is 75 miles from Sabine Pass; Lake Houston 80 miles.
Rainfall:
West of I-45: 1-2 inches
East of I-45: 2-6 inches, isolated totals up to 8 inches.
Sabine River Valley: 8-12 inches
Overnight, rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased 2 inches. The six inches now predicted roughly equals the amount of rain the Lake Houston Area received on May 7th last year. Elm Grove residents: Please note: the volume of detention ponds now on Woodridge Village should be enough to protect you unless there is a design flaw.
The main rainfall threat comes from rapid, intense rains which can cause street flooding.
Actions
Complete all preparations by 6:00 pm this evening. Earlier the better.
If in evacuation areas, evacuate immediately…especially in the Beaumont and Lake Charles area.
Lake Report
Lake Houston as of 6:30 a.m. was at 41.17 feet (full pool 42.4). The Coastal Water Authority will continue releasing water from Lake Houston until it reaches 41 feet.
Lake Conroe is not releasing water and stands at 199.72 feet (full pool is 201).
For More Up-to-the-Minute Information
For the most up-to-date rainfall totals and water levels in bayous, creeks, and rivers, visit www.harriscountyfws.org. This system relies on a network of gage stations that have been strategically placed throughout Harris and surrounding counties.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 7:12 a.m. on 8/26/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1093 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/091953WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2020-08-26 07:18:322020-08-26 08:46:51As of 7 a.m., Laura Predicted to Make Landfall at Sabine Pass as Cat 4 Hurricane
Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced at 4:31 p.m. Tuesday that Houston Public Works will initiate the temporary lowering of Lake Houston within the hour. The City made this decision after taking into account the fast-changing nature of Hurricane Laura. The Coastal Water Authority will lower Lake Houston to 41.0 ft from 41.59, another six tenths of a foot, which is 18 inches below full pool.
Laura should arrive late tomorrow or early Thursday as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane conditions are expected in Chambers and Liberty County – with 45-60 mph winds east of I-45 throughout the Lake Houston Area.
Floodgates on Lake Houston Dam photographed on 6/16/2020.
2 to 4 Inches Expected
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Laura will bring 2 – 4 inches of rain to the Lake Houston Area in the next few days. Isolated areas could receive 6 inches. These rainfall amounts exceed the 3 inch trigger to lower Lake Houston, said Martin.
Lake to Be Lowered Another 7.2 inches
As a result of these predicted rainfall amounts in addition to the rainfall that will be accumulated to our east, the Lake will be lowered gradually overnight from the current level, which is 41.6 ft down to an elevation of 41.0 ft. Six tenths of a foot is 7.2 inches.
The Lake will be maintained at a level of approximately 41.0 ft while there is an immediate inclement weather threat. Once that weather has moved out of our area, the Lake will be allowed to naturally refill from the storm’s runoff.
Some fluctuations in Lake level can be attributed to high winds so please keep that in mind when checking Lake levels.
Secure Shoreline Property NOW If You Have Not Already
Property owners were given notice Friday afternoon to secure property along the shoreline for a potential temporary lowering of Lake Houston. If you have not already done so now is the time to take action to secure your shoreline property.
Dave Martin, Mayor Pro Tem
The lake will be lowered at a cautious rate so as to not impact those living downstream. At the completion of this temporary lowering effort the total reduction in the level of Lake Houston from normal pool of 42.5 ft to 41.0 ft will be 1.5 feet.
Martin’s press release made no mention of the SJRA or Lake Conroe. Lake Conroe, which is farther west should receive less rain than Lake Houston from Laura.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020at 6 pm, based on a press release from Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin.
1092 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20200616-RJR_3283.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-08-25 17:51:182020-08-25 17:51:38Lake Houston Level Now Being Lowered in Advance of Hurricane Laura
These warnings were just issued by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, and City of Houston:
Hurricane warnings issued from San Luis Pass into Louisiana.
Landfall of a devastating hurricane likely between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass tomorrow night.
Rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.
Heed all evacuation recommendations.
Discussion
Laura – now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph – is continuing to intensify. The hurricane will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours, right up to landfall along the upper TX coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts Laura will become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 110 mph by tomorrow night or early Thursday morning when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass.
Track:
Everyone should be planning for the landfall of a very serious hurricane between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass on the Louisiana border. Additional shifts in the track are possible that could bring the core of Laura into Galveston Bay and Harris/Galveston Counties.
The large wind field will result in strong winds likely 100-150 miles inland across east Texas.
Prepare for power outages extending well inland along with significant wind damage and extended outages.
Intensity:
Prepare for the impact of a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). Once the inner core of Laura forms, significant intensification is likely, and conditions look very favorable for intensification.
Tropical Storm force winds will begin along the coast at around 8:00 pm Wednesday evening.
Advice from City, Lake Status
“Rainfall amounts in the Lake Houston Watershed over the next six days are expected to be 2 – 4 inches with isolated accumulation of 6 inches possible,” said Dave Martin. “Currently, the Lake Houston Watershed is dry and the projected impact to our area will be to our east with the largest possible impact expected along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. Lake Houston is already down one foot from normal pool with the possibility of being lowered additionally, if necessary. Please make sure all property along the shoreline is secured in the event additional lowering is ordered.”
“Regardless of where this storm lands,” said Martin, “it is important all residents prepare themselves and have a plan. Hurricane Laura will likely be similar to Ike with severe wind impacts and power outages. The City of Houston has prepared resources to help you get ready for upcoming disasters and make sure you are prepared for this one. Please visit www.readyhoustontx.gov to learn more.
Actions
Prepare for the landfall of a major hurricane along the SE TX coast
Bring in anything in your yard, such as lawn furniture, that could become airborne.
All preparations will be to be competed by 6:00 p.m. Wednesday evening.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/153403_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-08-25 12:30:512020-08-25 12:31:07Laura Intensifying into Major Hurricane; Prepare for Big Winds, Power Outages
As of 7 a.m., Laura Predicted to Make Landfall at Sabine Pass as Cat 4 Hurricane
This update on Hurricane Laura is based on information from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Hurricane Center based on their 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. updates on Wednesday 8/26/2020.
Laura rapidly strengthening…now a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane, predicted to reach Cat 4.
Extremely dangerous hurricane will make landfall near Sabine Pass tonight with catastrophic impacts.
All preparations must be completed by 6:00 p.m. this evening.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate late this afternoon and evening over the region.
Rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased overnight. We could now receive up to six inches.
Discussion
Laura became a large and dangerous hurricane overnight with expansion of the wind field. USAF missions indicate the central pressure continues to fall. Winds are increasing. And Laura has experienced a 40 knot increase in winds in the last 24 hours. (A knot = 1.15 mph.) The eye of the hurricane is starting to clear out. Further rapid intensification is likely today.
Track:
The center of Laura should cross the coast near Sabine Pass, TX, near the Texas/Louisiana Border. Models have tightly clustered just either side of the state line. There is high confidence that Laura will make landfall in the areas between Sea Rim State Park and Cameron LA early Thursday morning. The hurricane should move rapidly northward, up the Sabine River Valley on Thursday.
Given the fast forward motion, significant wind impacts will extend well inland along the track of Laura with wind damage likely extending 100-200 miles inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
Intensity:
Laura will pass over warm Gulf waters today and upper air conditions that favor intensification through landfall. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a category 4, 130 mph hurricane at landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 175 miles.
Impacts
Storm Surge:
Expect a catastrophic storm surge event over extreme SE TX and much of coastal Louisiana.
Strong north winds tonight may drive water levels along the north side of Galveston Island and Bolivar to elevated levels and water levels in the NW part of Galveston Bay may fall well below normal.
The following values are above ground level:
Galveston Bay: 1-3 ft
Bolivar: 2-5 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park: 6-9 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City (Including Beaumont and Lake Charles): 10-15 ft.
Large destructive waves will accompany storm surge.
Winds:
West of I-45: 30-40mph
East of I-45: 45-55mph
Chambers, Liberty, Polk Counties: 50-65mph
Jefferson, Orange Counties and Lake Charles: 110-120mph
Higher gusts will occur in squalls.
Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
The Harris County line is 75 miles from Sabine Pass; Lake Houston 80 miles.
Rainfall:
West of I-45: 1-2 inches
East of I-45: 2-6 inches, isolated totals up to 8 inches.
Sabine River Valley: 8-12 inches
Overnight, rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased 2 inches. The six inches now predicted roughly equals the amount of rain the Lake Houston Area received on May 7th last year. Elm Grove residents: Please note: the volume of detention ponds now on Woodridge Village should be enough to protect you unless there is a design flaw.
The main rainfall threat comes from rapid, intense rains which can cause street flooding.
Actions
Complete all preparations by 6:00 pm this evening. Earlier the better.
If in evacuation areas, evacuate immediately…especially in the Beaumont and Lake Charles area.
Lake Report
Lake Houston as of 6:30 a.m. was at 41.17 feet (full pool 42.4). The Coastal Water Authority will continue releasing water from Lake Houston until it reaches 41 feet.
Lake Conroe is not releasing water and stands at 199.72 feet (full pool is 201).
For More Up-to-the-Minute Information
For the most up-to-date rainfall totals and water levels in bayous, creeks, and rivers, visit www.harriscountyfws.org. This system relies on a network of gage stations that have been strategically placed throughout Harris and surrounding counties.
Also visit the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 7:12 a.m. on 8/26/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1093 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lake Houston Level Now Being Lowered in Advance of Hurricane Laura
Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced at 4:31 p.m. Tuesday that Houston Public Works will initiate the temporary lowering of Lake Houston within the hour. The City made this decision after taking into account the fast-changing nature of Hurricane Laura. The Coastal Water Authority will lower Lake Houston to 41.0 ft from 41.59, another six tenths of a foot, which is 18 inches below full pool.
Laura should arrive late tomorrow or early Thursday as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane conditions are expected in Chambers and Liberty County – with 45-60 mph winds east of I-45 throughout the Lake Houston Area.
2 to 4 Inches Expected
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Laura will bring 2 – 4 inches of rain to the Lake Houston Area in the next few days. Isolated areas could receive 6 inches. These rainfall amounts exceed the 3 inch trigger to lower Lake Houston, said Martin.
Lake to Be Lowered Another 7.2 inches
As a result of these predicted rainfall amounts in addition to the rainfall that will be accumulated to our east, the Lake will be lowered gradually overnight from the current level, which is 41.6 ft down to an elevation of 41.0 ft. Six tenths of a foot is 7.2 inches.
The Lake will be maintained at a level of approximately 41.0 ft while there is an immediate inclement weather threat. Once that weather has moved out of our area, the Lake will be allowed to naturally refill from the storm’s runoff.
Some fluctuations in Lake level can be attributed to high winds so please keep that in mind when checking Lake levels.
Secure Shoreline Property NOW If You Have Not Already
The lake will be lowered at a cautious rate so as to not impact those living downstream. At the completion of this temporary lowering effort the total reduction in the level of Lake Houston from normal pool of 42.5 ft to 41.0 ft will be 1.5 feet.
For More Information
Residents may monitor the lowering of Lake Houston by visiting the Coastal Water Authority website or visiting Mayor Pro Tem Martin’s Facebook page for updates from the District E office.
No Mention of SJRA
Martin’s press release made no mention of the SJRA or Lake Conroe. Lake Conroe, which is farther west should receive less rain than Lake Houston from Laura.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 at 6 pm, based on a press release from Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin.
1092 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Laura Intensifying into Major Hurricane; Prepare for Big Winds, Power Outages
These warnings were just issued by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, and City of Houston:
Hurricane warnings issued from San Luis Pass into Louisiana.
Landfall of a devastating hurricane likely between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass tomorrow night.
Rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.
Heed all evacuation recommendations.
Discussion
Laura – now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph – is continuing to intensify. The hurricane will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours, right up to landfall along the upper TX coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts Laura will become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 110 mph by tomorrow night or early Thursday morning when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass.
Track:
Everyone should be planning for the landfall of a very serious hurricane between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass on the Louisiana border. Additional shifts in the track are possible that could bring the core of Laura into Galveston Bay and Harris/Galveston Counties.
The large wind field will result in strong winds likely 100-150 miles inland across east Texas.
Prepare for power outages extending well inland along with significant wind damage and extended outages.
Intensity:
Prepare for the impact of a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). Once the inner core of Laura forms, significant intensification is likely, and conditions look very favorable for intensification.
Tropical Storm force winds will begin along the coast at around 8:00 pm Wednesday evening.
Advice from City, Lake Status
“Rainfall amounts in the Lake Houston Watershed over the next six days are expected to be 2 – 4 inches with isolated accumulation of 6 inches possible,” said Dave Martin. “Currently, the Lake Houston Watershed is dry and the projected impact to our area will be to our east with the largest possible impact expected along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. Lake Houston is already down one foot from normal pool with the possibility of being lowered additionally, if necessary. Please make sure all property along the shoreline is secured in the event additional lowering is ordered.”
“Regardless of where this storm lands,” said Martin, “it is important all residents prepare themselves and have a plan. Hurricane Laura will likely be similar to Ike with severe wind impacts and power outages. The City of Houston has prepared resources to help you get ready for upcoming disasters and make sure you are prepared for this one. Please visit www.readyhoustontx.gov to learn more.
Actions
For hurricane preparation tips from the National Weather Service, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey