As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.
That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.
TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.
TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.
Current Forecast for TD 14
The Lake Houston Area could start feeling tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph) by next Monday night.The current most likely timing for the arrival of TS (40mph) winds would be around 11:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 a.m. Tuesday.Current forecasts show the storm briefly intensifying into a hurricane and then diminishing to a tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. NHC says it’s too early to determine exact impacts to the upper Texas coast. Too much uncertainty remains.
Rainfall Potential
Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.
At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.
“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.
The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…
At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Laura is currently racing west at 21 mph.The outer tropical storm force winds could arrive in Louisiana by Tuesday morning next week. That’s about 12 hours after TD-14 arrives on the Texas coast.Laura will likely intensify into a hurricane by the come it strikes the eastern Gulf coast.
Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible
Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.
Preparation
Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.
Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/145757-1.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-21 12:11:372020-08-21 12:11:50Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously
Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced today that FEMA will fund the dredging of an additional million cubic yards of sediment from the area around the San Jacinto West Fork Mouth Bar. The giant sand bar partially blocked the mouth of the West Fork during Harvey and backed water up. It contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses in Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita.
Only a skeleton of the above-water portion of the mouth bar remains. But water remains shallow on both sides of it. Note all the trees and little islands poking up between the bar and camera position. Photo taken 8/20/2020.
Ending a Three-Year Debate
The City and FEMA debated for almost three years about how much sediment Harvey deposited in the area between Kings Point and Atascocita Point. The disaster declaration following Harvey only allowed FEMA to fund dredging of sediment deposited by that storm, not to pay for any deposits there previously.
Back before Great Lakes removed its hydraulic dredge, the City commissioned TetraTech to determine the quantity. In April 2019, the City submitted TetraTech’s ninety-four-page report. Based on core sampling, TetraTech estimated that Harvey deposited approximately 1,012,000 cubic yards of sand/sediment.
Subsequently, Martin, Senator Brandon Creighton and Representative Dan Huberty gained support from Governor Greg Abbott to provide a $50 Million grant for additional debris removal. Approximately $7 Million went to dredging the mouth bar land mass, a project which is still underway.
Huberty’s amendment to Senate Bill (SB) 500 set aside another $30 Million for Harris County for dredging at the confluence of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston. The City is currently a sub-recipient of approximately $10 Million of those funds. Dredging will continue until the City exhausts the funds. According to Martin, the money should cover approximately 242,000 more cubic yards.
Then the FEMA money for the additional million cubic yards will kick in.
Said State Representative Dan Huberty, “After two years of showing FEMA the data, I am thrilled that we are allowed to continue this project due to the hard work of Mayor Pro Tem Martin and Mayor Turner. The funds we secured from the State during the last budget cycle to continue where FEMA left off are nearly depleted. This new funding source will let us complete this necessary and critical project. It is great news for our community. It also recognizes how important the Lake Houston Watershed is to our region.”
Other Lake Houston Dredging Projects
Approximately $10 Million of local funds are earmarked for the dredging activity within Lake Houston south of FM 1960. The City plans to coordinate with Harris County Flood Control District to utilize a portion of the $10 Million to remove the mouth bar obstruction at Roger’s Gully.
Rogers Gully Mouth Bar
However, it won’t happen anytime soon. Based on the bond priorities pushed through Harris County by Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, County funds will not be available until July 2021 at the earliest. And maybe not until March 2022.
Credits
Mayor Pro Tem Martin, Congressman Dan Crenshaw, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, Texas Division Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd, Mayor Sylvester Turner, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello have all worked together to make these projects happen.
Another view of the slowly disappearing San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020
1088 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/20200820-DJI_0501.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-08-20 17:31:122020-08-20 17:51:55FEMA to Fund Additional Million Cubic Yards of Dredging from West Fork Mouth Bar Area
Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the Texas Coast by Monday night.Source: NHC
Tropical depression #14 has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC predicts the storm will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center predicts arrival time of tropical storm force winds along the Texas Coast on Monday evening.
Threat to the NW Gulf Early- to Mid- Next Week.
Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Visible satellite images indicate that a tropical depression has formed over the NW Caribbean Sea. Satellite images also show the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW.
Track
West to WNW motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Forecasters predict that over the weekend, the system will turn toward the NW and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track toward the TX coast as high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.
As of 8/20/2020, NOAA shows the cone of uncertainty pointing straight toward the upper Texas Coast.
Intensity
Conditions favor additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. Overall, conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development of a tropical system, says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.
Second Storm Brewing; Wet Week Likely
A rare double whammy is possible for the Gulf Coast early next week. Forecasters at the NHC predict that Tropical Depression 13, now in the western Atlantic, will strengthen into a tropical storm tonight and into a hurricane by Monday morning. However, at this time (Thursday noon),forecasters are not predicting the storm’s track or intensity beyond Monday night.
A second tropical system, TD13, could make next week very wet and windy all along the Gulf Coast.TD13 will likely arrive in Florida and the eastern Gulf around the same timeas TD14 arrives at the Texas coast.
A high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the track of TD14 because of potential interactions with land. However, here is what forecasters predict as of Thursday morning.
It offers important advice for those who may be forced to shelter with friends and family and well as those who need to go to a public disaster shelter.
“While it may be nerve-wracking to go to a public shelter during a pandemic, know that your immediate safety during a hurricane takes priority over everything else,” says Methodist.
“Shelters will be modified to separate families as much as is feasible and hold fewer people, whether that be by walls separating rooms or by simply designating larger spaces that allow for greater distance between families,” said Lina Hildago, Harris County Judge, in an interview with Space City Weather. “We’re ready to institute temperature checks and have PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand for folks who need it. We’re also working with our first-responder community, making sure they not only have enough PPE on hand for any response, but that they are also trained on how to use it.”
Methodist advises that if you experience COVID-19 symptoms, you can speak to a Virtual Urgent Care provider 24/7. The provider will help you determine if testing is needed and advise you on where you should go.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020
1087 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/145738.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-20 11:52:472020-08-20 11:59:57Tropical Depression 14 Headed into Gulf
Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously
As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.
That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.
TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.
TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.
Current Forecast for TD 14
Rainfall Potential
Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.
At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.
“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.
The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…
At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.
Tropical Storm Laura
Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible
Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.
Preparation
Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.
Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.
They get the information first.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1088 days since Hurricane Harvey
FEMA to Fund Additional Million Cubic Yards of Dredging from West Fork Mouth Bar Area
Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced today that FEMA will fund the dredging of an additional million cubic yards of sediment from the area around the San Jacinto West Fork Mouth Bar. The giant sand bar partially blocked the mouth of the West Fork during Harvey and backed water up. It contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses in Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita.
Ending a Three-Year Debate
The City and FEMA debated for almost three years about how much sediment Harvey deposited in the area between Kings Point and Atascocita Point. The disaster declaration following Harvey only allowed FEMA to fund dredging of sediment deposited by that storm, not to pay for any deposits there previously.
Back before Great Lakes removed its hydraulic dredge, the City commissioned TetraTech to determine the quantity. In April 2019, the City submitted TetraTech’s ninety-four-page report. Based on core sampling, TetraTech estimated that Harvey deposited approximately 1,012,000 cubic yards of sand/sediment.
However, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) disputed the TetraTech’s conclusion. USACE pulled the Great Lakes dredge from the river on September 3, 2019, after dredging only 500,000 cubic yards from that area.
Now, FEMA has reversed course. It concurs with the City’s findings, thanks in part to Martin’s persistence. Martin is “elated” with FEMA’s ruling.
Before Dredging Can Begin…
Removal of this debris is pending:
The City will finalize the timeline as it develops the documents above.
How Various Dredging Projects Add Up
FEMA’s initial Emergency West Fork dredging contract in 2018 resulted in the removal of 1,849,000 cubic yards of sand/sediment between US59 and the Mouth Bar. Subsequently, FEMA authorized removal of an additional 500,000 cubic yards near the Mouth Bar itself. That brought the total up to 2,349,000 cubic yards.
Subsequently, Martin, Senator Brandon Creighton and Representative Dan Huberty gained support from Governor Greg Abbott to provide a $50 Million grant for additional debris removal. Approximately $7 Million went to dredging the mouth bar land mass, a project which is still underway.
Huberty’s amendment to Senate Bill (SB) 500 set aside another $30 Million for Harris County for dredging at the confluence of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston. The City is currently a sub-recipient of approximately $10 Million of those funds. Dredging will continue until the City exhausts the funds. According to Martin, the money should cover approximately 242,000 more cubic yards.
Then the FEMA money for the additional million cubic yards will kick in.
Said State Representative Dan Huberty, “After two years of showing FEMA the data, I am thrilled that we are allowed to continue this project due to the hard work of Mayor Pro Tem Martin and Mayor Turner. The funds we secured from the State during the last budget cycle to continue where FEMA left off are nearly depleted. This new funding source will let us complete this necessary and critical project. It is great news for our community. It also recognizes how important the Lake Houston Watershed is to our region.”
Other Lake Houston Dredging Projects
Approximately $10 Million of local funds are earmarked for the dredging activity within Lake Houston south of FM 1960. The City plans to coordinate with Harris County Flood Control District to utilize a portion of the $10 Million to remove the mouth bar obstruction at Roger’s Gully.
However, it won’t happen anytime soon. Based on the bond priorities pushed through Harris County by Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, County funds will not be available until July 2021 at the earliest. And maybe not until March 2022.
Credits
Mayor Pro Tem Martin, Congressman Dan Crenshaw, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, Texas Division Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd, Mayor Sylvester Turner, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello have all worked together to make these projects happen.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020
1088 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Depression 14 Headed into Gulf
Tropical depression #14 has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC predicts the storm will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center predicts arrival time of tropical storm force winds along the Texas Coast on Monday evening.
Threat to the NW Gulf Early- to Mid- Next Week.
Visible satellite images indicate that a tropical depression has formed over the NW Caribbean Sea. Satellite images also show the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW.
Track
West to WNW motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Forecasters predict that over the weekend, the system will turn toward the NW and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track toward the TX coast as high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.
Intensity
Conditions favor additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. Overall, conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development of a tropical system, says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.
Second Storm Brewing; Wet Week Likely
A rare double whammy is possible for the Gulf Coast early next week. Forecasters at the NHC predict that Tropical Depression 13, now in the western Atlantic, will strengthen into a tropical storm tonight and into a hurricane by Monday morning. However, at this time (Thursday noon),forecasters are not predicting the storm’s track or intensity beyond Monday night.
A high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the track of TD14 because of potential interactions with land. However, here is what forecasters predict as of Thursday morning.
Bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page for updates every few hours.
Preparedness
Now is a good time to start thinking about preparedness. Houston Methodist Hospital published an article last week about “How to Prepare for a Hurricane During COVID-19.”
It offers important advice for those who may be forced to shelter with friends and family and well as those who need to go to a public disaster shelter.
“While it may be nerve-wracking to go to a public shelter during a pandemic, know that your immediate safety during a hurricane takes priority over everything else,” says Methodist.
“Shelters will be modified to separate families as much as is feasible and hold fewer people, whether that be by walls separating rooms or by simply designating larger spaces that allow for greater distance between families,” said Lina Hildago, Harris County Judge, in an interview with Space City Weather. “We’re ready to institute temperature checks and have PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand for folks who need it. We’re also working with our first-responder community, making sure they not only have enough PPE on hand for any response, but that they are also trained on how to use it.”
Methodist advises that if you experience COVID-19 symptoms, you can speak to a Virtual Urgent Care provider 24/7. The provider will help you determine if testing is needed and advise you on where you should go.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020
1087 Days after Hurricane Harvey