Pardon my rant about the phrase “historic disinvestment.” I just came out of another Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force meeting. Much of the conversation centered around “historic disinvestment” in low-to-moderate income (LMI) neighborhoods.
Having examined Harris County flood-mitigation spending in detail for two years now, I asked a simple question. “What is your basis for claiming historic disinvestment?”
No one had an answer. But they’re hoping to find one. In logic, they call this “begging the question.” Begging the question is a fallacy that occurs when an argument’s premise ASSUMES the truth of the conclusion.
The problem: sometimes data contradicts the premise. So let’s take a look at data. Via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, I obtained HCFCD and partner spending by watershed going back to 2000. Here’s what it looks like as of the end of the first quarter of 2022.
Four LMI Watersheds Received More Than Half of All Spending
Focus on the four watersheds at the left in the bar graph below. Together, they have received $2 billion out of $3.8 billion. That’s 53% of all flood-mitigation spending since 2000. Out of 23 watersheds!
All four have LMI majorities. Brays has 58% LMI residents. White Oak has 51%. Sims has 65%. And Greens has 57%.
Data obtained from HCFCD via FOIA Request. Valid through end of Q1 22.
Kingwood Doesn’t Get All the Money
Regardless, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis frequently says, “Kingwood gets all the money and poor neighborhoods get none.”
So I looked up the amount of capital improvement construction spending in Kingwood this morning. To my knowledge, in the history of the Flood Control District going back to 1937, we’ve had one capital improvement project that has gotten to the construction phase. That’s an excavation and removal contract now underway in Woodridge Village. The screen capture below shows that HCFCD has paid out $230 dollars on the $1225 contract to date.
Ellis constantly complains about this project and how hard people lobbied him to approve it. Thank you for the magnanimous gesture, Commissioner!
Hmmmm. $230 vs $2,002,838,150. That works out to about one ten-thousandth of one percent (0.00001%) for Kingwood. And the $2 billion represents justfour LMI watersheds! Add the other four and that percentage starts to look road-kill bad.
Gee, with math skills like Rodney’s, little wonder the county is in financial trouble.
But we’re comparing a subdivision to watersheds. So, to be fair, let’s look at affluent watersheds, not just affluent neighborhoods.
Four Affluent Watersheds Get One Third of Four LMI Watersheds
Since Ellis’ argument is that rich neighborhoods like Kingwood get all the flood-mitigation money, let’s look at spending in the four most affluent watersheds (those with the lowest percentages of LMI residents). That should make the most extreme test case.
Little Cypress has 16% LMI. Barker has 22%. Armand has 26%. And Cypress Creek has 26%. Spending in those four watersheds since 2000 totals $599 million out of a total $3.8 billion. That’s 15% compared to 53% for the LMI watersheds.
LMI watersheds still received more than three times the funding of the most affluent. That’s hardly historical discrimination any way you look at it.
Look Forward, Not Back
In the face of these numbers, to talk about historic disinvestment in LMI watersheds stretches credulity. Some might say it sounds downright self-serving. The Latin phrase ignorantia affectata describes what I think is causing the data denial.
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
To find genuine solutions to Harris County’s flooding problems, we need to start looking forward, not back. We must focus on the real causes of flooding; not imagined ones. We must put our money where the most flood risk remains after investing nearly $4 billion in the last 22 years. But, sadly, we don’t yet know where that is.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 22, 2022
1758 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-22-at-3.39.23-PM.png?fit=1596%2C1028&ssl=110281596adminadmin2022-06-22 19:27:512022-06-22 20:00:35$230 vs. $2,000,000,000: Where’s the “Historic Disinvestment”?
Two months shy of Hurricane Harvey’s fifth anniversary, I came across a 52-page book called Hurricane Harvey: Impact and Response in Harris County. Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) published it in May 2018 as the final toll of the storm became clear.
Free download, still available on the HCFCD website.53 Megabytes.
An Emotional and Statistical Recreation of the Event
Unlike the statistical report put out by HCFCD on Harvey, this book is filled with poignant pictures and informative graphics that emotionally and statistically recreate the impact of the storm and our immediate response to it. (Unfortunately, virtually all images are copyrighted, so I cannot show them here.)
The foreword contains the Army Corps plea to Congress for $10 billion against the backdrop of a $20 billion economic impact from damage to Texas Ports. It also contains additional requests by the Texas Congressional delegation and senators for an additional $8.7 billion for disaster recovery funds, state educational agencies, SBA disaster loans, economic development aid, and transportation infrastructure repairs.
Book Includes…
These requests form the backdrop for the rest of the book. Various sections show:
The scope and and scale of the storm
Human impacts
Economic impacts
How the storm developed
Comparisons to other record storms
Rescue efforts
The flood history of Harris County
Damages
Lake Houston and Lake Conroe dam performance
Disaster response efforts/first responders
Statistics show the unprecedented intensity, breadth and duration of this storm which dumped the greatest amount of rain in North American history.
Watershed by Watershed Impacts
The book also highlights the storm’s impact on every watershed, damage to drainage infrastructure, the port of Houston, downtown, and how previous flood-damage-reduction projects performed.
For anyone trying to help friends, loved-ones or newcomers understand the punishment dished out by Harvey, this is a go-to resource. Beautifully written and art directed, it may bring a tear to survivors’ eyes.
The photo that got me was by Elizabeth Conley of the Houston Chronicle. It showed volunteers sorting acres of donated clothes at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Somehow, that captured the scope of the human impact like few other photos have.
Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve continually run into several widely held misperceptions about flooding in Harris County. As we head into another hurricane season, let’s set the record straight about the most common myths. Some of the facts below have been adapted from information provided by the Harris County Flood Control District.
MYTH: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for addressing all types of flooding.
FACT: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for bayous and many of their tributaries. However, the City of Houston, other municipalities, and Precincts – in unincorporated Harris County – handle storm sewers and roadside ditches.
The Texas Department of Transportation handles drainage of highways and their feeder roads.
The moral of this story: make sure you call the right people when you see a problem developing.
MYTH: I’ve lived in my house for more than 30 years and I’ve never flooded. Therefore, I don’t need flood insurance.
FACT: Most Harris County residents live in homes vulnerable to flooding because:
Our topography is flat.
Many of us have impermeable clay soils that increase runoff.
Our subtropical climate can produce large amounts of rain in short periods of time.
Storm rainfall patterns may have spared your area since you have lived there. But that could change like the weather.
During Harvey, more than 68 percent of the homes that flooded in Harris County were outside the 100-year flood plain. So, consult your insurance agent. Most homeowner insurance policies do not cover flooding. You need a separate policy for that.
MYTH: A 1-percent (100-year) flood occurs only once every 100 years.
FACT: A 1-percent (100-year) flood can occur multiple times throughout a century. A 100-year flood has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given location in any given year. Doesn’t sound like a lot? Think of it this way: A home in a 1-percent (100-year) floodplain has at least a 26-percent chance of flooding during a 30-year period of time – the duration of many home mortgages. And remember, Harris County experienced four hundred-year events in four years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, and Imelda).
MYTH: I only need to worry about flooding during hurricane season.
FACT: Flooding can happen any time of the year. Of the four storms mentioned above, two occurred outside of hurricane season.
Short, high intensity rainfalls can cause street flooding that invades vehicles and homes built close to street level or near developments with insufficient mitigation.
High water rescue truck on flooded Elm Grove Street, May 2019
MYTH: If I didn’t flood during Allison or Harvey, chances are I won’t ever flood.
FACT: The greatest rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Allison hit the northeast part of Houston and Harris County, dropping more than 28 inches of rain in 12 hours and 35 inches of rain in five days. However, some areas received fewer than 5 inches of rain. Had the damaging rains of Allison targeted other areas, they would have experienced similar, devastating flooding.
Harvey also hit and missed certain areas. But the differences were even more dramatic. While Friendswood received 56″ of rain, Willis in Montgomery County received only 5″ between August 25 through September 1, 2017. See USGS, Table 1, Page 3.
MYTH: I don’t need flood insurance because I don’t live in a mapped floodplain.
FACT: We are all at risk for flooding regardless of our proximity to a mapped floodplain. Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs or floodplain maps) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency are good indicators of flooding risks from bayous and creeks overflowing their banks. However, they do not show flooding risks from storm sewers and roadside ditches exceeding their capacity, risks from unstudied bayous and creeks, or risks from storms greater than a 0.2 percent (500-year) flood — such as Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 or Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
MYTH: New land development causes flooding.
FACT: New development can accelerate the time of concentration of floodwaters, contributing to faster, higher flood peaks. That’s why cities and counties regulate development. But some see lax regulation and enforcement as a tool to attract new development. And even those with strict regulations may find that they aren’t strict enough to handle storms of increasing intensity.
HCFCD graph showing effect of development in Brays Bayou watershed. Insufficiently mitigated development over 85 years accelerated runoff, building flood peaks faster and higher.
Regulations dating to the early 1980s in many areas require stormwater runoff after development to be no greater than runoff before development. Developers must detain any excess stormwater on site. However:
Development prior to the 1980s was not as regulated.
Our understanding of what constitutes a 100-year rainfall continues to evolve. So pre/post estimates may be off.
Loopholes exist in many jurisdictions that allow developers to avoid building detention ponds.
MYTH: A storm surge from a tropical storm or hurricane will inhibit our bayou system’s ability to drain.
FACT: Most of our bayous and creeks are upland and drain by gravity. Because of their natural slope toward Galveston Bay, a storm surge caused by a tropical storm or a hurricane will not impede this process. Of the roughly 2,500 miles of bayous and creeks in Harris County, only a small portion near Galveston Bay will be influenced by storm surge for a short period of time.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/20/22with thanks to the Harris County Flood Control District
1756 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/MultiBlockages.jpg?fit=1440%2C960&ssl=19601440adminadmin2022-06-20 12:44:012022-06-21 07:32:35Mythbusters: Common Misperceptions about Flooding in Harris County
$230 vs. $2,000,000,000: Where’s the “Historic Disinvestment”?
Pardon my rant about the phrase “historic disinvestment.” I just came out of another Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force meeting. Much of the conversation centered around “historic disinvestment” in low-to-moderate income (LMI) neighborhoods.
Having examined Harris County flood-mitigation spending in detail for two years now, I asked a simple question. “What is your basis for claiming historic disinvestment?”
No one had an answer. But they’re hoping to find one. In logic, they call this “begging the question.” Begging the question is a fallacy that occurs when an argument’s premise ASSUMES the truth of the conclusion.
The problem: sometimes data contradicts the premise. So let’s take a look at data. Via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, I obtained HCFCD and partner spending by watershed going back to 2000. Here’s what it looks like as of the end of the first quarter of 2022.
Four LMI Watersheds Received More Than Half of All Spending
Focus on the four watersheds at the left in the bar graph below. Together, they have received $2 billion out of $3.8 billion. That’s 53% of all flood-mitigation spending since 2000. Out of 23 watersheds!
All four have LMI majorities. Brays has 58% LMI residents. White Oak has 51%. Sims has 65%. And Greens has 57%.
Kingwood Doesn’t Get All the Money
Regardless, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis frequently says, “Kingwood gets all the money and poor neighborhoods get none.”
So I looked up the amount of capital improvement construction spending in Kingwood this morning. To my knowledge, in the history of the Flood Control District going back to 1937, we’ve had one capital improvement project that has gotten to the construction phase. That’s an excavation and removal contract now underway in Woodridge Village. The screen capture below shows that HCFCD has paid out $230 dollars on the $1225 contract to date.
Ellis constantly complains about this project and how hard people lobbied him to approve it. Thank you for the magnanimous gesture, Commissioner!
Hmmmm. $230 vs $2,002,838,150. That works out to about one ten-thousandth of one percent (0.00001%) for Kingwood. And the $2 billion represents just four LMI watersheds! Add the other four and that percentage starts to look road-kill bad.
But we’re comparing a subdivision to watersheds. So, to be fair, let’s look at affluent watersheds, not just affluent neighborhoods.
Four Affluent Watersheds Get One Third of Four LMI Watersheds
Since Ellis’ argument is that rich neighborhoods like Kingwood get all the flood-mitigation money, let’s look at spending in the four most affluent watersheds (those with the lowest percentages of LMI residents). That should make the most extreme test case.
Little Cypress has 16% LMI. Barker has 22%. Armand has 26%. And Cypress Creek has 26%. Spending in those four watersheds since 2000 totals $599 million out of a total $3.8 billion. That’s 15% compared to 53% for the LMI watersheds.
LMI watersheds still received more than three times the funding of the most affluent. That’s hardly historical discrimination any way you look at it.
Look Forward, Not Back
In the face of these numbers, to talk about historic disinvestment in LMI watersheds stretches credulity. Some might say it sounds downright self-serving. The Latin phrase ignorantia affectata describes what I think is causing the data denial.
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
To find genuine solutions to Harris County’s flooding problems, we need to start looking forward, not back. We must focus on the real causes of flooding; not imagined ones. We must put our money where the most flood risk remains after investing nearly $4 billion in the last 22 years. But, sadly, we don’t yet know where that is.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 22, 2022
1758 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Remembering Hurricane Harvey: Impact and Response
Two months shy of Hurricane Harvey’s fifth anniversary, I came across a 52-page book called Hurricane Harvey: Impact and Response in Harris County. Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) published it in May 2018 as the final toll of the storm became clear.
An Emotional and Statistical Recreation of the Event
Unlike the statistical report put out by HCFCD on Harvey, this book is filled with poignant pictures and informative graphics that emotionally and statistically recreate the impact of the storm and our immediate response to it. (Unfortunately, virtually all images are copyrighted, so I cannot show them here.)
The foreword contains the Army Corps plea to Congress for $10 billion against the backdrop of a $20 billion economic impact from damage to Texas Ports. It also contains additional requests by the Texas Congressional delegation and senators for an additional $8.7 billion for disaster recovery funds, state educational agencies, SBA disaster loans, economic development aid, and transportation infrastructure repairs.
Book Includes…
These requests form the backdrop for the rest of the book. Various sections show:
Statistics show the unprecedented intensity, breadth and duration of this storm which dumped the greatest amount of rain in North American history.
Watershed by Watershed Impacts
The book also highlights the storm’s impact on every watershed, damage to drainage infrastructure, the port of Houston, downtown, and how previous flood-damage-reduction projects performed.
For anyone trying to help friends, loved-ones or newcomers understand the punishment dished out by Harvey, this is a go-to resource. Beautifully written and art directed, it may bring a tear to survivors’ eyes.
The photo that got me was by Elizabeth Conley of the Houston Chronicle. It showed volunteers sorting acres of donated clothes at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Somehow, that captured the scope of the human impact like few other photos have.
Hurricane Harvey – Impact and Response in Harris County is a free download from HCFCD.
In the coming weeks, I plan to explore what we have accomplished in terms of flood mitigation since Harvey. More to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/21/2022
1757 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Mythbusters: Common Misperceptions about Flooding in Harris County
Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve continually run into several widely held misperceptions about flooding in Harris County. As we head into another hurricane season, let’s set the record straight about the most common myths. Some of the facts below have been adapted from information provided by the Harris County Flood Control District.
MYTH: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for addressing all types of flooding.
FACT: The Harris County Flood Control District is responsible for bayous and many of their tributaries. However, the City of Houston, other municipalities, and Precincts – in unincorporated Harris County – handle storm sewers and roadside ditches.
The Texas Department of Transportation handles drainage of highways and their feeder roads.
The moral of this story: make sure you call the right people when you see a problem developing.
MYTH: I’ve lived in my house for more than 30 years and I’ve never flooded. Therefore, I don’t need flood insurance.
FACT: Most Harris County residents live in homes vulnerable to flooding because:
Storm rainfall patterns may have spared your area since you have lived there. But that could change like the weather.
Remember. People thought Tropical Storm Allison was the worst. It caused all the flood maps to be revised. Then along came Harvey. Now, HCFCD and FEMA are revising the flood maps again.
During Harvey, more than 68 percent of the homes that flooded in Harris County were outside the 100-year flood plain. So, consult your insurance agent. Most homeowner insurance policies do not cover flooding. You need a separate policy for that.
MYTH: A 1-percent (100-year) flood occurs only once every 100 years.
FACT: A 1-percent (100-year) flood can occur multiple times throughout a century. A 100-year flood has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given location in any given year. Doesn’t sound like a lot? Think of it this way: A home in a 1-percent (100-year) floodplain has at least a 26-percent chance of flooding during a 30-year period of time – the duration of many home mortgages. And remember, Harris County experienced four hundred-year events in four years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, and Imelda).
MYTH: I only need to worry about flooding during hurricane season.
FACT: Flooding can happen any time of the year. Of the four storms mentioned above, two occurred outside of hurricane season.
Short, high intensity rainfalls can cause street flooding that invades vehicles and homes built close to street level or near developments with insufficient mitigation.
Hundreds of homes flooded in Elm Grove on May 7, 2019. The causes: 5.64″ of rain in about 12 hours. And a 270-acre tract upstream that had recently been clearcut with only 9% of the promised detention ponds constructed.
MYTH: If I didn’t flood during Allison or Harvey, chances are I won’t ever flood.
FACT: The greatest rainfall brought by Tropical Storm Allison hit the northeast part of Houston and Harris County, dropping more than 28 inches of rain in 12 hours and 35 inches of rain in five days. However, some areas received fewer than 5 inches of rain. Had the damaging rains of Allison targeted other areas, they would have experienced similar, devastating flooding.
Harvey also hit and missed certain areas. But the differences were even more dramatic. While Friendswood received 56″ of rain, Willis in Montgomery County received only 5″ between August 25 through September 1, 2017. See USGS, Table 1, Page 3.
MYTH: I don’t need flood insurance because I don’t live in a mapped floodplain.
FACT: We are all at risk for flooding regardless of our proximity to a mapped floodplain. Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs or floodplain maps) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency are good indicators of flooding risks from bayous and creeks overflowing their banks. However, they do not show flooding risks from storm sewers and roadside ditches exceeding their capacity, risks from unstudied bayous and creeks, or risks from storms greater than a 0.2 percent (500-year) flood — such as Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 or Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
MYTH: New land development causes flooding.
FACT: New development can accelerate the time of concentration of floodwaters, contributing to faster, higher flood peaks. That’s why cities and counties regulate development. But some see lax regulation and enforcement as a tool to attract new development. And even those with strict regulations may find that they aren’t strict enough to handle storms of increasing intensity.
Flooding can be inherited from areas developed before our understanding of flooding improved. So it would be safer to say that “Insufficiently mitigated development causes flooding.”
Regulations dating to the early 1980s in many areas require stormwater runoff after development to be no greater than runoff before development. Developers must detain any excess stormwater on site. However:
Today, we have a hodge-podge of regulations throughout the region. Learn regulations in your area and monitor new developments to ensure compliance.
MYTH: A storm surge from a tropical storm or hurricane will inhibit our bayou system’s ability to drain.
FACT: Most of our bayous and creeks are upland and drain by gravity. Because of their natural slope toward Galveston Bay, a storm surge caused by a tropical storm or a hurricane will not impede this process. Of the roughly 2,500 miles of bayous and creeks in Harris County, only a small portion near Galveston Bay will be influenced by storm surge for a short period of time.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/20/22 with thanks to the Harris County Flood Control District
1756 Days after Hurricane Harvey