Last week, one of the biggest issues in Harris County flood mitigation came into sharp focus for me: contrived ignorance regarding flood-bond spending. Three things brought it into focus:
The completion of the $480 million Project Brays, the largest in Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) history. The Brays watershed has 58% low-to-moderate income (LMI) residents.
HCFCD’s release of the May update on flood-bond spending. It showed that less than one one-thousandth of one percent of active flood-bond construction dollars are going to the entire northeastern part of the county (Kingwood, Huffman, Humble, Atascocita, and Crosby).
Ellis keeps rubbing me the wrong way. Why inflame racial distrust, Rodney, with statements so far from the truth?
Ignorantia Affectata
I’ve always had trouble understanding politicians who deny reality. But it turns out Thomas Aquinas, the great Catholic theologian and philosopher from the Middle Ages, described the phenomenon 800 years ago. He called it ignorantia affectata, a Latin phrase meaning “affected or cultivated ignorance.”
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
David Luban, a professor at Georgetown Law, wrote a brilliant essay on the ethics of “Contrived Ignorance” (a related concept) and the law. It begins with a poignant description of how criminal defense attorneys discourage defendants from telling them everything they know. Admitting guilt could limit their defense of the client, because the law forbids lawyers from lying or knowingly putting on perjured testimony. Luban also touches on another related concept, plausible deniability, so common in politics and business.
Plausible Deniability No Longer Plausible
After Ellis spoke at the ribbon cutting ceremony – for the largest project in flood control history – he can no longer plausibly deny that poor neighborhoods can’t get flood-mitigation funding. They do!
But he tried. He trotted out his tired distortion about higher value homes in affluent neighborhoods skewing benefit/cost ratios. The problem: it ignores density. Higher density more than compensates for higher value homes. And in fact, from the ribbon cutting ceremony one could see apartments several stories high, stretching blocks in all directions.
While Ellis leads people to believe that projects in LMI areas struggle to achieve Benefit/Cost Ratios above 1.0, Project Brays had a 7.0 ratio. That’s extremely high. See this 2019 Federal Briefing. It will return $7 for every $1 invested!
Rodney Ellis at ribbon cutting ceremony for the $480 million Project Brays. The project helps reduce flood risk in neighborhoods where Ellis grew up and also where he now lives.Brays Bayou, looking west toward medical center from Almeda Drive.
Contrived Ignorance Vs. Informed Debate
The problem with contrived ignorance is that it prevents informed debate. Why would you look for evidence that undermined your world view? That prevented you from reducing flood risk in your neighborhood even further?
Why use the commonly accepted dictionary definition of “equitable” when you can redefine the word to serve your self interest?
I find it incredible that in 18 months, a majority of the Community Flood Resilience Task Force:
Refuses to discuss what percentage of flood-mitigation funding affluent neighborhoods should get.
Won’t admit that flood-mitigation projects have already been built in their neighborhoods.
Is arguing about how to float another flood bond for $60 billion when we’re only 20% complete with the first $5 billion.
Won’t discuss whether 2-year flooding in affluent neighborhoods should be fixed before 500-year flooding in LMI neighborhoods.
Attributes past flooding to racially motivated neglect without examining the role of development practices
Recommended that HUD paypeopleonly from poor neighborhoods to protest the unfair distribution of flood-mitigation funds.
When you try to discuss actual facts in Task Force meetings, shocked silence often greets you. Members keep talking about how they want facts. But a full year after requesting flood-risk data, no one seems concerned about the fact that they haven’t gotten it yet. Could this be what Thomas Aquinas meant?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/22
1735 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20220526-RJR_9480.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2022-05-30 18:23:132022-05-31 13:58:44Editorial: Contrived Ignorance in Flood Mitigation
On Tuesday, 5/24/22, the Flood Control District transmitted updates on two projects (MAAPNext and the 2018 Flood Bond) to Harris County Commissioners. New Flood Insurance Rate Maps (floodplain maps) should be released within the next six months. In related news, the entire northeastern part of Harris County is still getting less than one thousandth of one percent of all active construction spending on bond projects.
For more detail read on.
MAAPNext Data Still Being Validated
MAAPNext stands for the next-level Modeling, Assessment and Awareness Project. In the wake of back-to-back-to-back 500-year floods in 2015, 2016, and 2017, it became clear that the floodplain maps which guided development in Harris County woefully underestimated the real flood risk in the region.
In response, the Harris County Flood Control District, NOAA and FEMA launched the MAAPNext project. It began by acquiring new, more accurate topographic (elevation) data for every watershed in the county and surrounding areas. They used LiDAR data with 9 times more resolution than the maps developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
Harris County Flood Control District then modeled updated rainfall probability statistics (Atlas-14 data) from NOAA against the terrain data.
FEMA is now reviewing the results and validating data. Within the next few months, FEMA will release new floodplain maps. This graphic shows the timetable and stages.
HCFCD has completed its part of the work and estimates FEMA has completed 20% of its at this point.
Preliminary Maps Coming in Few Months
FEMA should release PRELIMINARY Flood Insurance Rate Maps this summer or fall. After the release, expect a series of public meetings. During those meetings, partners will explain the results and the public will get a chance to ask questions and/or protest the results.
For instance, some people may have raised the elevation of their buildings since development of the new maps. Maps that do not reflect such improvements could raise flood insurance rates.
Other people will no doubt question the validity of the data, becauseexpanded floodplains may adversely affect their property values. People who have received no flood mitigation help so far from the bond will suffer more in this regard than those who have.
Following the public comment and review periods, FEMA will revise floodplain maps as necessary and then release final versions. It could take another 3+ years before we see final maps.
In the meantime, you should assume that the old floodways will expand into the 100-year floodplain and the 100-year floodplain will expand into the 500-year floodplain.
So it’s best to get flood insurance now if you don’t have it. Remember, if you are in the 100-year floodplain, your chance of flooding during the life of a 30-year mortgage is about 1 in 4. And a lot of people don’t yet realize they live in a floodplain!
HCFCD also released its May update on the progress of 2018 flood-bond projects last week. Through the end of April 2022, the District has completed 21.3% of the bond program.
The District has spent $1.025 billion out of about $5 billion in bond and partner funds. Spending breaks down like this:
$533 million in Bond Funds
$356 million in Grants
$136 in other Local Funds.
Where HCFCD spent a billion dollars.
The update acknowledges the $2.2 million grant from the Texas Water Development Board for the second phase of the Lauder Stormwater Detention Basin on Greens Bayou. Supposedly, Phase 2 has already started construction, though I could see little more than road work last week.
Other projects starting construction last month included:
Bayside Terrace Subdivision Drainage Improvements
Barker Watershed Repairs
Active construction of capital improvement projects totaled $236 million in May. Out of that, the entire northeastern part of the county still had only $2,000. That’s right. $2 thousand out of $236 million. That’s 0.0008%.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20220529-Screen-Shot-2022-05-29-at-11.04.08-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C913&ssl=19131200adminadmin2022-05-29 11:36:052022-06-01 12:00:12Progress Reports on New Floodplain Maps and Flood Bond
I often post about the loss of forests and wetlands to development and how that affects flooding. But the loss also affects wildlife. A new movie, Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story, follows our ever-changing relationship with the natural world. It showcases our ability to destroy, conserve, and recover wildlife and habitat. The producers tell the story through the eyes of wildlife.
First Blue-Chip Wildlife Documentary About Texas
This gorgeous documentary about Texas wildlife opens in theaters on June 3, 2022.
MovieInsider.com calls Deep in The Heart, “The first blue-chip wildlife documentary ever produced about Texas.” And the trailer certainly lives up to that promise.
Image from DeepInTheHeartWildlife.com
The producers say, “Deep in the Heart is a visually stunning celebration of what makes Texas unique. Its diverse landscapes and remarkable wildlife behavior cannot be found anywhere else in the world.
“Narrated by Matthew McConaughey and featuring state-of-the-art cinematography, this family-friendly film journeys from the highest peaks in West Texas, through our aquifers, rivers, and bays, and deep into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Deep in the Heart aims to conserve our remaining wild places, to show the connectivity of water and wildlife, and to recognize Texas’ conservation importance on a continental scale.”
A consortium of foundations made the film possible. The primary sponsor was Texan by Nature, founded in 2011 by former First Lady Laura Bush. Texan by Nature (TxN) unites landowners, business, conservation, and civic leaders who believe Texas’ prosperity depends on conservation of natural resources. Learn more at www.texanbynature.org.
Where to See The Film
The film is in limited distribution at only seven Houston theaters. The closest to the Lake Houston Area: the Regal Benders Landing on the Grand Parkway between I-45 and I-69. Check here for show times.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2022with thanks to Pamela Davidson for the heads up on this movie
1733 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20220528-Screen-Shot-2022-05-28-at-9.14.24-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=17271200adminadmin2022-05-28 10:48:022022-05-28 10:48:04Deep in The Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story
Editorial: Contrived Ignorance in Flood Mitigation
Last week, one of the biggest issues in Harris County flood mitigation came into sharp focus for me: contrived ignorance regarding flood-bond spending. Three things brought it into focus:
Ellis keeps rubbing me the wrong way. Why inflame racial distrust, Rodney, with statements so far from the truth?
Ignorantia Affectata
I’ve always had trouble understanding politicians who deny reality. But it turns out Thomas Aquinas, the great Catholic theologian and philosopher from the Middle Ages, described the phenomenon 800 years ago. He called it ignorantia affectata, a Latin phrase meaning “affected or cultivated ignorance.”
I found a great description of it on this blog. “The deniers first deceive themselves that they are sincere in their adherence to falsehoods. Thus they cannot be faulted for acting on genuinely held views. But in truth, they have cultivated an ignorance of the facts, an ignorance so useful that one protects it at all costs … in order to continue using it in one’s own self interest.”
David Luban, a professor at Georgetown Law, wrote a brilliant essay on the ethics of “Contrived Ignorance” (a related concept) and the law. It begins with a poignant description of how criminal defense attorneys discourage defendants from telling them everything they know. Admitting guilt could limit their defense of the client, because the law forbids lawyers from lying or knowingly putting on perjured testimony. Luban also touches on another related concept, plausible deniability, so common in politics and business.
Plausible Deniability No Longer Plausible
After Ellis spoke at the ribbon cutting ceremony – for the largest project in flood control history – he can no longer plausibly deny that poor neighborhoods can’t get flood-mitigation funding. They do!
But he tried. He trotted out his tired distortion about higher value homes in affluent neighborhoods skewing benefit/cost ratios. The problem: it ignores density. Higher density more than compensates for higher value homes. And in fact, from the ribbon cutting ceremony one could see apartments several stories high, stretching blocks in all directions.
While Ellis leads people to believe that projects in LMI areas struggle to achieve Benefit/Cost Ratios above 1.0, Project Brays had a 7.0 ratio. That’s extremely high. See this 2019 Federal Briefing. It will return $7 for every $1 invested!
Contrived Ignorance Vs. Informed Debate
The problem with contrived ignorance is that it prevents informed debate. Why would you look for evidence that undermined your world view? That prevented you from reducing flood risk in your neighborhood even further?
Why use the commonly accepted dictionary definition of “equitable” when you can redefine the word to serve your self interest?
I find it incredible that in 18 months, a majority of the Community Flood Resilience Task Force:
When you try to discuss actual facts in Task Force meetings, shocked silence often greets you. Members keep talking about how they want facts. But a full year after requesting flood-risk data, no one seems concerned about the fact that they haven’t gotten it yet. Could this be what Thomas Aquinas meant?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/22
1735 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Progress Reports on New Floodplain Maps and Flood Bond
On Tuesday, 5/24/22, the Flood Control District transmitted updates on two projects (MAAPNext and the 2018 Flood Bond) to Harris County Commissioners. New Flood Insurance Rate Maps (floodplain maps) should be released within the next six months. In related news, the entire northeastern part of Harris County is still getting less than one thousandth of one percent of all active construction spending on bond projects.
For more detail read on.
MAAPNext Data Still Being Validated
MAAPNext stands for the next-level Modeling, Assessment and Awareness Project. In the wake of back-to-back-to-back 500-year floods in 2015, 2016, and 2017, it became clear that the floodplain maps which guided development in Harris County woefully underestimated the real flood risk in the region.
In response, the Harris County Flood Control District, NOAA and FEMA launched the MAAPNext project. It began by acquiring new, more accurate topographic (elevation) data for every watershed in the county and surrounding areas. They used LiDAR data with 9 times more resolution than the maps developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
Harris County Flood Control District then modeled updated rainfall probability statistics (Atlas-14 data) from NOAA against the terrain data.
FEMA is now reviewing the results and validating data. Within the next few months, FEMA will release new floodplain maps. This graphic shows the timetable and stages.
HCFCD has completed its part of the work and estimates FEMA has completed 20% of its at this point.
Preliminary Maps Coming in Few Months
FEMA should release PRELIMINARY Flood Insurance Rate Maps this summer or fall. After the release, expect a series of public meetings. During those meetings, partners will explain the results and the public will get a chance to ask questions and/or protest the results.
For instance, some people may have raised the elevation of their buildings since development of the new maps. Maps that do not reflect such improvements could raise flood insurance rates.
Other people will no doubt question the validity of the data, because expanded floodplains may adversely affect their property values. People who have received no flood mitigation help so far from the bond will suffer more in this regard than those who have.
Following the public comment and review periods, FEMA will revise floodplain maps as necessary and then release final versions. It could take another 3+ years before we see final maps.
In the meantime, you should assume that the old floodways will expand into the 100-year floodplain and the 100-year floodplain will expand into the 500-year floodplain.
So it’s best to get flood insurance now if you don’t have it. Remember, if you are in the 100-year floodplain, your chance of flooding during the life of a 30-year mortgage is about 1 in 4. And a lot of people don’t yet realize they live in a floodplain!
To see the full MAAPNext update, click here.
Flood Bond Now 21% Complete
HCFCD also released its May update on the progress of 2018 flood-bond projects last week. Through the end of April 2022, the District has completed 21.3% of the bond program.
The District has spent $1.025 billion out of about $5 billion in bond and partner funds. Spending breaks down like this:
The update acknowledges the $2.2 million grant from the Texas Water Development Board for the second phase of the Lauder Stormwater Detention Basin on Greens Bayou. Supposedly, Phase 2 has already started construction, though I could see little more than road work last week.
Other projects starting construction last month included:
Active construction of capital improvement projects totaled $236 million in May. Out of that, the entire northeastern part of the county still had only $2,000. That’s right. $2 thousand out of $236 million. That’s 0.0008%.
To see the entire flood bond update, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2022
1734 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Deep in The Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story
I often post about the loss of forests and wetlands to development and how that affects flooding. But the loss also affects wildlife. A new movie, Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story, follows our ever-changing relationship with the natural world. It showcases our ability to destroy, conserve, and recover wildlife and habitat. The producers tell the story through the eyes of wildlife.
First Blue-Chip Wildlife Documentary About Texas
This gorgeous documentary about Texas wildlife opens in theaters on June 3, 2022.
MovieInsider.com calls Deep in The Heart, “The first blue-chip wildlife documentary ever produced about Texas.” And the trailer certainly lives up to that promise.
The producers say, “Deep in the Heart is a visually stunning celebration of what makes Texas unique. Its diverse landscapes and remarkable wildlife behavior cannot be found anywhere else in the world.
“Narrated by Matthew McConaughey and featuring state-of-the-art cinematography, this family-friendly film journeys from the highest peaks in West Texas, through our aquifers, rivers, and bays, and deep into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Deep in the Heart aims to conserve our remaining wild places, to show the connectivity of water and wildlife, and to recognize Texas’ conservation importance on a continental scale.”
Distinguished Producers and Sponsors
Deep in the Heart was written and directed by Ben Masters; and produced by Katy Baldock and Jay Kleberg.
A consortium of foundations made the film possible. The primary sponsor was Texan by Nature, founded in 2011 by former First Lady Laura Bush. Texan by Nature (TxN) unites landowners, business, conservation, and civic leaders who believe Texas’ prosperity depends on conservation of natural resources. Learn more at www.texanbynature.org.
Where to See The Film
The film is in limited distribution at only seven Houston theaters. The closest to the Lake Houston Area: the Regal Benders Landing on the Grand Parkway between I-45 and I-69. Check here for show times.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2022 with thanks to Pamela Davidson for the heads up on this movie
1733 Days since Hurricane Harvey