On 6/29/22, Harris County Commissioners Court discussed a billion-dollar-plus bond package presented by County Administrator Dave Berry, Budget Director Daniel Ramos and Engineering Department Head Dr. Milton Rahman, P.E. The presentation talks about a $1 billion package. But during discussion, commissioners asked to look at several higher options – $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion. The discussion, which you can see posted on the Harris County Commissioners Court website, starts at 3:32 (timecode) and goes to 4:20. Since that’s almost 50 minutes, let me try to summarize it below using some of the slides presented by Rahman.
Proposed Uses for Money
In fairness, understand upfront that Rahman presented an introductory outline, not a detailed plan. With that in mind, he pitched a $1 billion plan broken down as follows.
The package includes $200 million to improve neighborhood drainage. That’s over and above the $600 million in the current budget.
Rahman focused on both the number of people (20,000) and structures (4,000) benefitted with the $600 million. That averages to $30,000 per person or $150,000 per structure. That also works out to 5 people per structure. But the Harris County average per household, according to the US Census Bureau, is 2.84 people for the five years ending in 2020.
That made me question where Rahman obtained his numbers. He never says. Does he base his estimate on a combination of apartments and single-family households? Who will benefit from another $200 million? If that $200 million works as efficiently as the $600 million, it should help another 1,333 homes (4000/3). Where are they? Which precinct? Which neighborhoods?
I get the need for rounding at this early stage. But they’re talking about going to voters in four months. 4.2% of the $5 billion flood bond is more than $200 million dollars of rounding error! That made me wonder about the accuracy of the numbers in the slides above.
The fact that the total “ask” varied by 50% during the discussion also made me wonder about how much research and planning went into these numbers.
Yet Commissioners Ellis and Garcia are eager to put it on the agenda for a vote during the next commissioners court meeting – without any public input. That raised more red flags, because the Community Flood Resilience Task Force has demanded public input on future bond programs. In multiple languages. A majority of the task force felt so strongly about public input, that they even asked HUD to fund it!
Other Highlights from Discussion
Commissioner Ellis wants to review a tighter proposal and put it to a vote at the next commissioners court meeting on July 19, 2022.
Garcia wants it on the ballot in 2022, not 2023.
Ramsey wants to slow it down. He wants to listen to voters, develop a tight plan, communicate the elements to the public, and advocate for it. He stated that it would take a long time to recover from a bond proposal that failed. Ramsey would prefer a vote in 2023.
Commissioners Court spent considerable time discussing whether the proposal should have a list of specific projects or just generic categories of spending. But the commissioners made no decision on that point.
Milton Rahman stated, “The wish list is bigger than we can afford.” That raised another red flag for me. It means someone will have to make hard decisions about where the money goes and who benefits. Who will make those decisions? On what basis? When? After the election?
Commissioner Cagle suggested voting on this proposal with additional requests to fund flood tunnels and the coastal spine project. That could delay this bond proposal until we knew how much federal funding we could get for those projects. And that could take two years. Congress will vote on the next Water Resources Development Act in 2024.
Withholding Judgment for Now
Until I see more detail, I will withhold judgement on this bond proposal. I can see how there may be a need. But I’m not going to vote for a billion dollars of vague generalities. I want to see where the money goes and I want to have time to study the bond language. I was fooled once by a non-standard definition of “equitable” applied to the 2018 flood bond. What other surprises lurk in the wings?
One reader who prefers to remain anonymous said, “We should trust this Court with a blank check for projects that are not defined??? NO DAMN WAY!!! What is the formula to determine which Precincts get how much money? What is the prioritization framework to select projects? How will equity considerations affect funding? How will the public know where this money goes? We have NO IDEA where previous bond funding went!!! This Court has not earned our trust. Some members just cannot be trusted. NO BOND!”
Frankly, that’s a fairly typical attitude outside the Beltway from comments i get.
Yet Rahman, Berry and Ramos, in their last slide, suggest this proposal – with a barely defined project list – is a foregone conclusion. See below. They want to identify only a few flagship projects to complement other unspecified projects in the bond. And they want to start drafting bond orders now.
Let’s see if Berry, Ramos and Rahman can advertise and conduct dozens of precinct meetings; solicit public input; and define a plan responsive to community needs before the next commissioners court meeting. If not, perhaps Ellis, Garcia, Hidalgo and the Community Flood Resilience Task Force should demand their resignations.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/2022
1765 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/17-Bond-Presentation_Page_06.jpg?fit=2000%2C1125&ssl=111252000adminadmin2022-06-29 20:35:112022-06-30 00:14:18County Discussing Another Billion-Dollar-Plus Bond
The introduction to the request states, “Although the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) continues to aggressively pursue partnership dollars … substantial amounts of anticipated partner funding remain unrealized.”
Of the roughly $5 billion in 2018 Flood-Bond Projects, officials hoped that Federal, State and local partners would supply roughly half the money. But it hasn’t all materialized yet. So last year, Commissioners created a flood-resilience trust fund to create backstop funding. Until now, the county has not needed it. But now the county does…for the sixteen projects listed below.
Projects recommended for first round of backstop funding. Some of these projects started before the flood bond, were later included in it, and ran over budget.
To date, Harris County has secured $1.275 billion in partnership funding for 2018 Bond Program projects from Federal, State, and local partners. Of the $2.5 billion in partner funds originally anticipated, “the county has not yet identified $754.2 million. This gap includes projects for which grant applications were submitted to various Federal and State programs such as CDBG-MIT, FEMA-BRIC, and others but not awarded,” says HCFCD.
Ironically, the backup documentation provided to commissioners by HCFCD makes no mention of the $750 million allocated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO) to Harris County. More on that below.
Ranking Methodology
The document provided to commissioners by HCFCD contains information about the Trust, its history and intent, projects that need funding help now, and a methodology for ranking projects.
After ranking all flood-bond projects that are short of funding using the proposed matrix below (Appendix B), the county began whittling away from Trust funds. HCFCD started with the top-ranked project and proceeded to the lowest until the money ran out, i.e., the balance in the trust fund went negative. Only two projects from the entire San Jacinto Watershed made the “eligible” list: one near the ship channel and another below Highway 90. But neither of those is part of the group of 16 above.
Weighting Factors in Proposed Matrix
The scoring matrix used by the County includes evaluations of:
Cost per person (15%)
Cost per structure (30%)
Non-structural benefits (45%)
Existing conditions (20%)
Social Vulnerability Index (20%)
Long-term maintenance (5%)
Minimizing environmental impacts (5%)
Ability to deliver multiple benefits, i.e., flood mitigation, social and environmental (5%)
As additional partnership funding sources are identified, money remaining in the Trust may cover additional projects…assuming inflation doesn’t eat it all up.
For this exercise, HCFCD analyzed all projects with partnership funding gaps. However, that doesn’t mean that those projects will necessarily receive Flood Resilience Trust funds. When and if HCFCD identifies funding partners, some projects could drop off the list of those needing help. That could make funds available for lower ranking projects. See Appendix B, last page.
Future Plans
If approved, HCFCD will return to Commissioners Court twice each year with additional requests from the Flood Resilience Trust. Each of those requests will include an updated analysis of partnership and contingency funding needs, Trust funds remaining, and eligible projects.
HCFCD will request money from the Trust only when projects cannot move forward without it.
$750 Million HUD Allocation Not Discussed
The County’s Community Services Department is currently developing a Method of Distribution (MOD) for the $750 million designated earlier this year for Harris County by HUD. A MOD is a plan for distributing the $750 million. Where and how will the county use the money? Who will benefit?
HUD and the GLO require that at least 50% of the money benefits Low-to-Moderate Income neighborhoods.
At the time the GLO and HUD dedicated $750 million to Harris County, they also dedicated $488 million to the Houston Galveston Area Council (HGAC).
Verification that all recipients are still interested in participating.
According to a GLO spokesperson, HGAC began developing its MOD when the GLO submitted its action plan to HUD. However, Harris County reportedly delayed planning until AFTER HUD approved the GLO’s recommendations.
That delay could mean spending more local money. And that could penalize Harris County watersheds farther down on the Trust Fund priority list that don’t currently meet SVI and other requirements. Will there be money left for the Lake Houston Area by the time we work our way further down this list? Only time will tell.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/2022
1764 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-27-at-10.09.28-AM.png?fit=546%2C578&ssl=1578546adminadmin2022-06-27 22:50:062022-06-28 13:35:45HCFCD Asking to Tap Flood Resilience Trust for Bond Projects
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) posted the June 2022 status of 2018 flood-bond expenditures for Commissioners Court last Friday. Among the report’s highlights: the spending drought continues in the Lake Houston Area where only two capital improvement construction projects are active. Their total reported value: $2 thousand. That’s out of more than $235 million in active construction projects during the month of June.
Said another way, the Lake Houston Area is getting less than one-thousandth of 1% of the construction budget (0.000851%). March and April updates show that no new capital improvement construction projects have started in the Lake Houston Area in months.
Finished detention Basins near Little York and Hopper in the Halls Bayou Watershed, with combined 200 acre-feet of storage.
Wrapped up Halls Bayou conveyance improvements
Began demolition of the old Raveneaux Country Club on Cypress Creek
Started drainage repairs in the Carpenters Bayou watershed
Issued a purchase order for the Atascocita Area Drainage Study, which had been approved on February 8.
Released the Phase II, 1800-page report on flood tunnel feasibility
Spending Breakdowns by Watershed
Harris County contains 23 major watersheds shown below.
The 23 watersheds in Harris County and the amount spent to date from all sources under the 2018 flood bond.
The table and bar graph below make the rank-order and relative magnitude of spending in various watersheds more apparent.
Spending by watershed ranked from high to low.San Jacinto is middle of pack despite being largest watershed in county,Bar graph of table above.
Factors Affecting Watershed Spending
Several factors affect the magnitude of spending in each watershed. They include:
Equity Prioritization Framework – This scoring matrix gives higher priority to projects in low-to-moderate income watersheds that have a high social vulnerability index. Projects with high scores started sooner.
Project Lifecycle Stage – Generally speaking, the earlier a project kicked off, the further along it is in its lifecycle. Studies have completed and construction has started or even completed. Some areas that flood repetitively had engineering studies completed and were already shovel-ready after Harvey.
Buyouts/Right of Way Acquisition – Sometimes entire subdivisions must be bought out to make room for flood mitigation projects. This can delay construction for years.
Lobbying – Squeaky wheels play a role on multiple levels.
Usually, no one factor accounts for a project’s or an area’s ranking. But multiple factors – working together – can push an area up or down the list.
Certainly, some areas have suffered spending-wise because of political priorities.
Other Highlights
HCFCD spent a total of $1.05 billion through the end of May. That compares to $1.025 billion through the end of April. So HCFCD spent $25 million in May.
Of the $1.05 billion spent to date, bond funds comprised $545 million. Grants comprised $367 million. And $140 came from other local funds.
HCFCD reported a schedule performance index of .97. That means projects are running slightly behind schedule. On-schedule performance would have earned a 1.0.
Overall, HCFCD has completed 21.8% of the bond projects when we’re 37.5% of the way through the 10-year program (45 months out of 120).
For the complete June update on bond spending, click here. Remember to review the last page. It shows capital improvement construction projects throughout the county and the spending drought in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 26, 2022
1762 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/20220626-Screen-Shot-2022-06-26-at-10.12.36-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C912&ssl=19121200adminadmin2022-06-26 12:42:522022-06-26 16:04:30May Flood-Bond Update Shows Spending Drought in Lake Houston Area Continues
County Discussing Another Billion-Dollar-Plus Bond
On 6/29/22, Harris County Commissioners Court discussed a billion-dollar-plus bond package presented by County Administrator Dave Berry, Budget Director Daniel Ramos and Engineering Department Head Dr. Milton Rahman, P.E. The presentation talks about a $1 billion package. But during discussion, commissioners asked to look at several higher options – $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion. The discussion, which you can see posted on the Harris County Commissioners Court website, starts at 3:32 (timecode) and goes to 4:20. Since that’s almost 50 minutes, let me try to summarize it below using some of the slides presented by Rahman.
Proposed Uses for Money
In fairness, understand upfront that Rahman presented an introductory outline, not a detailed plan. With that in mind, he pitched a $1 billion plan broken down as follows.
The package includes $200 million to improve neighborhood drainage. That’s over and above the $600 million in the current budget.
Rahman focused on both the number of people (20,000) and structures (4,000) benefitted with the $600 million. That averages to $30,000 per person or $150,000 per structure. That also works out to 5 people per structure. But the Harris County average per household, according to the US Census Bureau, is 2.84 people for the five years ending in 2020.
That made me question where Rahman obtained his numbers. He never says. Does he base his estimate on a combination of apartments and single-family households? Who will benefit from another $200 million? If that $200 million works as efficiently as the $600 million, it should help another 1,333 homes (4000/3). Where are they? Which precinct? Which neighborhoods?
Harris County already has neighborhood drainage improvements in the 2018 flood bond. Yet Rahman’s presentation says, “We do not recommend pursuing more voted authority for the Flood Control District at this time; approximately 74% of the 2018 Bond Program funds are not yet spent or encumbered.” That would mean 26% are. But Tina Petersen, the new head of the flood control district, submitted another presentation yesterday indicating that 21.8% has been spent.
I get the need for rounding at this early stage. But they’re talking about going to voters in four months. 4.2% of the $5 billion flood bond is more than $200 million dollars of rounding error! That made me wonder about the accuracy of the numbers in the slides above.
The fact that the total “ask” varied by 50% during the discussion also made me wonder about how much research and planning went into these numbers.
Yet Commissioners Ellis and Garcia are eager to put it on the agenda for a vote during the next commissioners court meeting – without any public input. That raised more red flags, because the Community Flood Resilience Task Force has demanded public input on future bond programs. In multiple languages. A majority of the task force felt so strongly about public input, that they even asked HUD to fund it!
Other Highlights from Discussion
Commissioner Ellis wants to review a tighter proposal and put it to a vote at the next commissioners court meeting on July 19, 2022.
Garcia wants it on the ballot in 2022, not 2023.
Ramsey wants to slow it down. He wants to listen to voters, develop a tight plan, communicate the elements to the public, and advocate for it. He stated that it would take a long time to recover from a bond proposal that failed. Ramsey would prefer a vote in 2023.
Commissioners Court spent considerable time discussing whether the proposal should have a list of specific projects or just generic categories of spending. But the commissioners made no decision on that point.
Milton Rahman stated, “The wish list is bigger than we can afford.” That raised another red flag for me. It means someone will have to make hard decisions about where the money goes and who benefits. Who will make those decisions? On what basis? When? After the election?
Commissioner Cagle suggested voting on this proposal with additional requests to fund flood tunnels and the coastal spine project. That could delay this bond proposal until we knew how much federal funding we could get for those projects. And that could take two years. Congress will vote on the next Water Resources Development Act in 2024.
Withholding Judgment for Now
Until I see more detail, I will withhold judgement on this bond proposal. I can see how there may be a need. But I’m not going to vote for a billion dollars of vague generalities. I want to see where the money goes and I want to have time to study the bond language. I was fooled once by a non-standard definition of “equitable” applied to the 2018 flood bond. What other surprises lurk in the wings?
One reader who prefers to remain anonymous said, “We should trust this Court with a blank check for projects that are not defined??? NO DAMN WAY!!! What is the formula to determine which Precincts get how much money? What is the prioritization framework to select projects? How will equity considerations affect funding? How will the public know where this money goes? We have NO IDEA where previous bond funding went!!! This Court has not earned our trust. Some members just cannot be trusted. NO BOND!”
Frankly, that’s a fairly typical attitude outside the Beltway from comments i get.
Yet Rahman, Berry and Ramos, in their last slide, suggest this proposal – with a barely defined project list – is a foregone conclusion. See below. They want to identify only a few flagship projects to complement other unspecified projects in the bond. And they want to start drafting bond orders now.
Let’s see if Berry, Ramos and Rahman can advertise and conduct dozens of precinct meetings; solicit public input; and define a plan responsive to community needs before the next commissioners court meeting. If not, perhaps Ellis, Garcia, Hidalgo and the Community Flood Resilience Task Force should demand their resignations.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/2022
1765 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
HCFCD Asking to Tap Flood Resilience Trust for Bond Projects
Item #123 on the Harris County Commissioners Court Agenda for 6/28/22 is a request to tap the County’s Flood Resilience Trust Fund to help finance 16 flood-bond projects in the coming year. The request also seeks approval for a method of allocating future funds that weighs projects using a social vulnerability index.
A Backstop for Partner Funds
The introduction to the request states, “Although the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) continues to aggressively pursue partnership dollars … substantial amounts of anticipated partner funding remain unrealized.”
Of the roughly $5 billion in 2018 Flood-Bond Projects, officials hoped that Federal, State and local partners would supply roughly half the money. But it hasn’t all materialized yet. So last year, Commissioners created a flood-resilience trust fund to create backstop funding. Until now, the county has not needed it. But now the county does…for the sixteen projects listed below.
To date, Harris County has secured $1.275 billion in partnership funding for 2018 Bond Program projects from Federal, State, and local partners. Of the $2.5 billion in partner funds originally anticipated, “the county has not yet identified $754.2 million. This gap includes projects for which grant applications were submitted to various Federal and State programs such as CDBG-MIT, FEMA-BRIC, and others but not awarded,” says HCFCD.
Ironically, the backup documentation provided to commissioners by HCFCD makes no mention of the $750 million allocated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO) to Harris County. More on that below.
Ranking Methodology
The document provided to commissioners by HCFCD contains information about the Trust, its history and intent, projects that need funding help now, and a methodology for ranking projects.
After ranking all flood-bond projects that are short of funding using the proposed matrix below (Appendix B), the county began whittling away from Trust funds. HCFCD started with the top-ranked project and proceeded to the lowest until the money ran out, i.e., the balance in the trust fund went negative. Only two projects from the entire San Jacinto Watershed made the “eligible” list: one near the ship channel and another below Highway 90. But neither of those is part of the group of 16 above.
Weighting Factors in Proposed Matrix
The scoring matrix used by the County includes evaluations of:
As additional partnership funding sources are identified, money remaining in the Trust may cover additional projects…assuming inflation doesn’t eat it all up.
For this exercise, HCFCD analyzed all projects with partnership funding gaps. However, that doesn’t mean that those projects will necessarily receive Flood Resilience Trust funds. When and if HCFCD identifies funding partners, some projects could drop off the list of those needing help. That could make funds available for lower ranking projects. See Appendix B, last page.
Future Plans
If approved, HCFCD will return to Commissioners Court twice each year with additional requests from the Flood Resilience Trust. Each of those requests will include an updated analysis of partnership and contingency funding needs, Trust funds remaining, and eligible projects.
$750 Million HUD Allocation Not Discussed
The County’s Community Services Department is currently developing a Method of Distribution (MOD) for the $750 million designated earlier this year for Harris County by HUD. A MOD is a plan for distributing the $750 million. Where and how will the county use the money? Who will benefit?
HUD and the GLO require that at least 50% of the money benefits Low-to-Moderate Income neighborhoods.
At the time the GLO and HUD dedicated $750 million to Harris County, they also dedicated $488 million to the Houston Galveston Area Council (HGAC).
HGAC has already submitted its MOD to the GLO and received preliminary, conditional approval. Conditional approval requires:
According to a GLO spokesperson, HGAC began developing its MOD when the GLO submitted its action plan to HUD. However, Harris County reportedly delayed planning until AFTER HUD approved the GLO’s recommendations.
That delay could mean spending more local money. And that could penalize Harris County watersheds farther down on the Trust Fund priority list that don’t currently meet SVI and other requirements. Will there be money left for the Lake Houston Area by the time we work our way further down this list? Only time will tell.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/2022
1764 Days since Hurricane Harvey
May Flood-Bond Update Shows Spending Drought in Lake Houston Area Continues
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) posted the June 2022 status of 2018 flood-bond expenditures for Commissioners Court last Friday. Among the report’s highlights: the spending drought continues in the Lake Houston Area where only two capital improvement construction projects are active. Their total reported value: $2 thousand. That’s out of more than $235 million in active construction projects during the month of June.
Said another way, the Lake Houston Area is getting less than one-thousandth of 1% of the construction budget (0.000851%). March and April updates show that no new capital improvement construction projects have started in the Lake Houston Area in months.
Project Highlights
In the good news category, HCFCD:
Spending Breakdowns by Watershed
Harris County contains 23 major watersheds shown below.
The table and bar graph below make the rank-order and relative magnitude of spending in various watersheds more apparent.
Factors Affecting Watershed Spending
Several factors affect the magnitude of spending in each watershed. They include:
Usually, no one factor accounts for a project’s or an area’s ranking. But multiple factors – working together – can push an area up or down the list.
Certainly, some areas have suffered spending-wise because of political priorities.
Other Highlights
HCFCD spent a total of $1.05 billion through the end of May. That compares to $1.025 billion through the end of April. So HCFCD spent $25 million in May.
Of the $1.05 billion spent to date, bond funds comprised $545 million. Grants comprised $367 million. And $140 came from other local funds.
HCFCD reported a schedule performance index of .97. That means projects are running slightly behind schedule. On-schedule performance would have earned a 1.0.
Overall, HCFCD has completed 21.8% of the bond projects when we’re 37.5% of the way through the 10-year program (45 months out of 120).
For the complete June update on bond spending, click here. Remember to review the last page. It shows capital improvement construction projects throughout the county and the spending drought in the Lake Houston Area.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 26, 2022
1762 Days since Hurricane Harvey