A weak surface low pressure system may develop into a tropical system over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. The National Hurricane Center estimates the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%. Chances of formation for another disturbance in the Atlantic remain at 60%.
What’s behind this prediction? A front will push through Houston Monday morning. It will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and then stall.
Location of front on Monday.
AND it will stall over warm waters.
Sea surface temperature anomalies as of 6/25/22. The darker the color, the more above average the temperatures.The whitish blob off the coast of Texas and Louisiana indicates the location of possible cyclone formation next week.Elongated blob at the bottom right indicates forecast track of disturbance in Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center said that if the system does develop, “[It] would likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Rainfall Implications
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough.”
This will bring increasing rain chances to Houston. And potentially alter rainfall accumulation forecasts. Depending on location, you could receive anywhere from a half inch to three inches, according to Space City Weather.
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts the highest 7-day rainfall totals farther to the east. Our neighbors in Louisiana could see up to five inches.
NWS Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast starting today shows highest rainfall totals around Mississippi delta.
At this time, NWS predicts NO flooding for next week. The drought has soil so dry that most rainfall should soak in. Our channels, creeks and bayous should handle any runoff.
Historical Curiosity
Here’s a historical curiosity. This morning, the NWS Houston/Galveston office noted some weather history on this day. “The first half of 1996 was extremely dry over all of Southeast Texas but heavy rains returned during the last week of June. On June 25th 1996, a swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across the southern half of the region with Danevang recording 6.07 inches of rain and Houston Hobby Airport recording 3.30 inches of rain.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/22
1761 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image001-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2022-06-25 10:57:192022-06-25 11:03:33Slight Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Gulf Next Week
Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
94L is in lower right.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image003-e1656082390202.png?fit=1244%2C755&ssl=17551244adminadmin2022-06-24 10:33:452022-06-24 10:33:48Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the high pressure weather pattern that has created unprecedented temperatures since late May will finally move away early next week. That should bring decent rain chances to the region.
The mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas will meander overhead through the weekend with highs ranging from 99-103 each day. Then, the ridge will break down and shift westward early next week. Until then, however, we will be near or at heat-advisory criteria from Friday through the weekend. Sea-breeze showers are possible today, but less likely Friday-Sunday.
Global models consistently predict that the high-pressure ridge will shift westward. That will let a frontal system slip into the region from the NE/ENE either late Sunday or early Monday.
“If you wanted cooler temperatures and some rainfall…this is one way to get it in the middle of summer.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist
Rainfall Chances Next Week
Gulf moisture should also increase early next week. That will bring desperately needed showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and continuing into much of next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 of an inch will be possible, with some locations seeing higher totals of 2-3 inches. Rainfall will likely affect much of the state.
The front should stall near the coast or even offshore at some point next week and eventually wash out.
Most of the Houston area could see up to an inch of rain next week.
Galveston Sea Surface Temps
Lindner warns that “We will have to keep an eye on the decaying boundary for any sort of low pressure area that may try to develop. No models show anything of concern at this point. But we should carefully watch any front over the very warm Gulf waters this time of year.
A strong tropical wave is moving westward into the Atlantic from Africa. The National Hurricane Center expects little development of this wave over the next 2-3 days. However, global models indicate that as this wave nears the Caribbean next week, conditions may be favorable for some development.
According to Lindner, tropical development this far east rarely happens this time of year. However, it does happen occasionally.
Tropical waves tend to struggle in this area this time of year. So development chances are only 20% right now. But no one knows yet what will happen when it reaches the Caribbean next week.
Season’s first Saharan tropical wave is moving toward the Caribbean and could arrive next week.
Slight Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Gulf Next Week
A weak surface low pressure system may develop into a tropical system over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. The National Hurricane Center estimates the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%. Chances of formation for another disturbance in the Atlantic remain at 60%.
What’s behind this prediction? A front will push through Houston Monday morning. It will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and then stall.
AND it will stall over warm waters.
Currently, the sea surface temperature in Galveston is 87 degrees – 4 degrees above the average for this time of year.
The National Hurricane Center said that if the system does develop, “[It] would likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Rainfall Implications
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough.”
This will bring increasing rain chances to Houston. And potentially alter rainfall accumulation forecasts. Depending on location, you could receive anywhere from a half inch to three inches, according to Space City Weather.
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts the highest 7-day rainfall totals farther to the east. Our neighbors in Louisiana could see up to five inches.
At this time, NWS predicts NO flooding for next week. The drought has soil so dry that most rainfall should soak in. Our channels, creeks and bayous should handle any runoff.
Historical Curiosity
Here’s a historical curiosity. This morning, the NWS Houston/Galveston office noted some weather history on this day. “The first half of 1996 was extremely dry over all of Southeast Texas but heavy rains returned during the last week of June. On June 25th 1996, a swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across the southern half of the region with Danevang recording 6.07 inches of rain and Houston Hobby Airport recording 3.30 inches of rain.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/22
1761 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Chances of Formation Increase to 60% for Invest 94L
Overnight, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical cyclone formation for Invest 94L to 60% in the next five days. Yesterday, NHC estimated 20%. “Invest” stands for Area of Investigation.
Reasons for Increased Chance of Formation
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “The tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic is fairly disorganized this morning with scattered areas of deep convection. The wave is moving westward and this motion will continue for the next 5-7 days.”
If you looked only at climate history for this time of year, says Lindner, you would not give this disturbance much of a chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
However, low wind shear, modest forward motion, and available moisture in the wave all support some degree of development in the next few days.
Storm Track Forecasts
Most models show development as the wave nears or reaches the eastern Caribbean Islands. European and Global forecast models tightly align with a track through the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Canadian model shows the storm tracking farther north at a higher intensity.
Virtually all models indicate similar tracks until the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.
Lindner believes the southern track is most likely given the time of year. He also sees potential for intensification due to favorable atmospheric conditions along the path. The satellite photo below shows the current extent of the disturbance.
The National Hurricane Center says, “A tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands.”
If you like viewing satellite images and animations from a wide variety of sources, I highly recommend the following sites:
More news to follow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/22
1760 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Weather Pattern Changing Soon
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the high pressure weather pattern that has created unprecedented temperatures since late May will finally move away early next week. That should bring decent rain chances to the region.
The mid- and upper-level ridge of high pressure over Texas will meander overhead through the weekend with highs ranging from 99-103 each day. Then, the ridge will break down and shift westward early next week. Until then, however, we will be near or at heat-advisory criteria from Friday through the weekend. Sea-breeze showers are possible today, but less likely Friday-Sunday.
Global models consistently predict that the high-pressure ridge will shift westward. That will let a frontal system slip into the region from the NE/ENE either late Sunday or early Monday.
Rainfall Chances Next Week
Gulf moisture should also increase early next week. That will bring desperately needed showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night and continuing into much of next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 of an inch will be possible, with some locations seeing higher totals of 2-3 inches. Rainfall will likely affect much of the state.
The front should stall near the coast or even offshore at some point next week and eventually wash out.
Galveston Sea Surface Temps
Lindner warns that “We will have to keep an eye on the decaying boundary for any sort of low pressure area that may try to develop. No models show anything of concern at this point. But we should carefully watch any front over the very warm Gulf waters this time of year.
Today’s Galveston sea temperature is 87°F. Statistics for 23 Jun (1981–2005) show that the mean temperature is 83 °F, and normally ranges from 81 °F to 85 °F. So we’re much above normal. And higher sea surface temperatures correlate strongly with more intense tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, we need to keep an eye on another weather pattern.
Tropics
A strong tropical wave is moving westward into the Atlantic from Africa. The National Hurricane Center expects little development of this wave over the next 2-3 days. However, global models indicate that as this wave nears the Caribbean next week, conditions may be favorable for some development.
Right now, the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
According to Lindner, tropical development this far east rarely happens this time of year. However, it does happen occasionally.
Tropical waves tend to struggle in this area this time of year. So development chances are only 20% right now. But no one knows yet what will happen when it reaches the Caribbean next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/2022
1759 Days since Hurricane Harvey