Five and a half years after Hurricane Harvey, I see people investing and building in areas near floodplains that will soon expand. I call this the “danger zone” because it’s not quite clear yet what their flood risk is or how to mitigate it.
I came across one such property last week on Townsen Blvd. in Humble, east of US59. The owners bought it 3.5 months after Harvey.
The USGS National Map shows the elevation of the site to be a little more than 63 feet. But the nearby gage at the West Fork and US59 exceeded that in 1994 (66.7 feet) and 2017 (69.6 feet).
Red dot shows location of new construction in photo below.Cross-hatched = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.Map from FEMA. Note date: 2006.
Post-Flood Fear Can Drive Down Prices
After a flood, fear can drive down land prices near rivers and streams. Bargain hunters may then step in and snap up property. That may be what happened in this case.
As I drove past this area on 3/5/23, I saw a new commercial structure going up next to some mostly empty condos and took several pictures.
The new construction has been elevated slightly.Note the fill and angle of the driveway.Also note the abandoned building in the background.The new building appears to be at the same elevation as these derelict condos.
That currently has a smaller 20,000 SF building with a “for sale” sign in front. So it appears that the company has outgrown its current space. That’s not surprising. Their website shows that they do excellent work.
The company hopes to be in its new space by mid 2023.
Property Bought Within Months After Harvey
The same couple bought both parcels of land in mid-December 2017, according to appraisal district records. And within a year after that, Google Earth shows that they had built the Humble Sign building.
God bless small-business people. They provide almost half of all the jobs in America.
It takes guts to bet your life savings when you start a small business. So who can blame entrepreneurs trying to save some money on land?
Humble Sign is elevating the new building slightly. (Note the fill in the construction photo above.) That’s good news. It should give them a small margin of extra safety.
Building Next to the Danger Zone
Still, building next to a floodplain that will soon expand is risky business. FEMA developed that map above in response to Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and made it official in 2006. But Harvey triggered another update that will expand floodplains significantly.
FEMA could soon reclassify this property from the 500- to the 100-year floodplain.
FEMA has said that the new 100-year floodplain will expand into the old 500-year floodplain in most places throughout the Houston region. Not only were our rainfall assumptions off after Allison, rampant new development continues unabated and often unmitigated upstream.
So let’s pray the owners added enough fill.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/23
2021 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230305-RJR_1173.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2023-03-12 20:16:152023-03-13 18:32:41Into the Danger Zone
A new 10-minute video by investigative reporter Wayne Dolcefino shows heat maps of Republican-leaning areas in Harris County and where voting problems occurred in the November 2022 elections. Superimposing one on top of the other shows that virtually all of the areas running out of ballot paper occurred in Republican strongholds.
Experts estimate the chances of that happening by accident at less than 1%.
Dolcefino
County Officials Still Stonewalling Document Requests
Dolcefino filed a lawsuit earlier this year because of Harris County’s refusal to provide public records relating to the election. Gallery-Furniture-owner Jim McIngvale is also a plaintiff in the lawsuit.
A computer expert named Russ Long from the oil and gas industry painstakingly pieced together the maps using data from other sources. Long began by sorting out the addresses of people who voted in Republican, but not Democratic primaries in 1150 voting precincts in Harris County. From that he identified the Republican-leaning precincts.
Red areas show clusters of Republican voters.
Paper Galore, But Not Evenly Distributed
Long is also a precinct captain in Cypress, TX. When he picked up ballot paper, he could immediately see that it wasn’t enough. Long told them he needed double the amount, but was told no more was available – despite the county having ordered 4 million sheets, far more than the number of registered voters in the county.
HarrisVotes.com shows that approximately 830,000 people voted early in person or by mail. About another 1.1 million voted on Election Day. Only the race for governor had more than 1.1 million ballots cast on Election Day and that total was 1,102,418. So there should have been two million extra sheets of paper.
Yet 121 polling places ran out of paper. And look where virtually all of them were!
Voter suppression in action.
Despite the problems, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who chairs the Elections Commission, has not called a meeting of the commission since November, according to Dolcefino. Nor has the county released election records requested by Dolcefino under the Texas Public Information Act.
“The release of this information related to our election is way past due,” said Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey.
“What’s wrong with sunshine? Shine the light on it,” said McIngvale.
Early Voting Starts Next Month for Next Election
It will take months to resolve these issues in the courts or the legislature. Dolcefino emphasizes the need for full disclosure now. We have another election in May. Early voting starts on April 24th, in a little more than a month. And we’ve had five months of stonewalling since the last election.
“None of the Democratic-leaning precincts came close to running out of ballots,” said Dolcefino.
Long added, “There would have been riots in the streets if they had.”
The problems may be worse than Dolcefino is reporting. For instance, the map above shows only one polling place in Kingwood that ran out of ballot paper. But I personally know of at least two.
And Dolcefino has not yet even reported on the problems with handicapped voting. Reliable sources tell me of technology problems countywide associated with curbside voting for handicapped people. Again, I personally witnessed those at multiple locations.
Elections Administrator Hired Despite Reported Problems on Last Job
According to Dolcefino’s video, Clifford Tatum, the Elections Administrator, reportedly ran into problems with a similar job he held in Washington D.C.
Previously, the people who ran Harris County elections were elected themselves. Hidalgo changed that, however. She created an office of Elections Administration with an appointed head. Tatum is Hidalgo’s second head of that office. The first resigned after problems with an earlier election.
Many races on last November’s ballot were decided by just a few hundred votes. Without actual records, it’s impossible to tell whether ballot issues skewed election results.
We need to get to the bottom of these problems sooner rather than later. If Hidalgo has nothing to hide, why hide it?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/10/2023
2019 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Paper-Problem-Map.jpg?fit=1200%2C683&ssl=16831200adminadmin2023-03-10 19:37:192023-03-11 07:22:37Nearly All Voting Problems in Republican Strongholds
On March 9, 2023, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) announced that La Niña conditions which persisted for 3-years have finally ended. But we are not shifting directly into El Niño. Instead, we’re entering a transitional phase. NWS expects neutral conditions to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into spring and early summer of 2023.
La Niña and El Niño represent opposite phases of what meteorologists call ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. They govern recurring climate patterns across the tropical Pacific and have a cascade of global side effects, says NWS.
The patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years. This past La Niña phase lasted three years, an unusually long time.
NWS predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. The weather service also predicts El Niño conditions to form during summer 2023 and persist through the fall.
Impacts on Weather
The oscillation brings predictable shifts in ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures. These shifts disrupt the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
El Niño brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. in winter months. It also brings stronger steering currents that can disrupt low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that turn into hurricanes.
La Niña, on the other hand, usually means less disruption, more Atlantic storms, and deeper droughts in the southern U.S. But we’re finally putting the most recent La Niña behind us.
ENSO Influence on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
The continental United States and Caribbean Islands have a substantially decreased chance of experiencing a hurricane during El Niño and an increased chance of experiencing a hurricane during La Niña. These maps (by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell) explain why.
Typical El Niño effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Overall, El Niño contributes to more eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Conversely, La Niña contributes to fewer eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes – exactly the opposite.
Typical La Niña effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Other Influences on Hurricane Formation: AMO
NOAA also says that other oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) also influence hurricane formation. Thewarm phase of the AMO is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and high hurricane activity in the main development region of the Atlantic between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
“The hurricane activity in any given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO,” says NOAA.
For More Information
For a fuller discussion of how El Niño and La Niña influence other aspects of weather worldwide, check out NOAA’s Climate.gov, especially the FAQ page.
Also, the Associated Press ran an interesting story this morning by Seth Borenstein. The headline: “La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone.”
Borenstein says NOAA gives El Niño a 60% chance of returning this fall. But there’s also a 5% chance that La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth winter.
We should have more certainty in a few months.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/9/23
2018 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/El-Nino-Effects.jpg?fit=610%2C320&ssl=1320610adminadmin2023-03-09 13:30:112023-03-09 13:59:17NWS Says La Niña Has Ended, Likely Impact on Weather
Into the Danger Zone
Five and a half years after Hurricane Harvey, I see people investing and building in areas near floodplains that will soon expand. I call this the “danger zone” because it’s not quite clear yet what their flood risk is or how to mitigate it.
I came across one such property last week on Townsen Blvd. in Humble, east of US59. The owners bought it 3.5 months after Harvey.
The USGS National Map shows the elevation of the site to be a little more than 63 feet. But the nearby gage at the West Fork and US59 exceeded that in 1994 (66.7 feet) and 2017 (69.6 feet).
Post-Flood Fear Can Drive Down Prices
After a flood, fear can drive down land prices near rivers and streams. Bargain hunters may then step in and snap up property. That may be what happened in this case.
As I drove past this area on 3/5/23, I saw a new commercial structure going up next to some mostly empty condos and took several pictures.
Company Expansion
Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) estimates that the new commercial structure will be a 28,000 SF building, though a company blog post claims 35,722 SF. It will be owned by a limited liability company, managed by a Kingwood-based couple. They also own the Humble Sign Company on a second, adjoining parcel to the west.
That currently has a smaller 20,000 SF building with a “for sale” sign in front. So it appears that the company has outgrown its current space. That’s not surprising. Their website shows that they do excellent work.
The company hopes to be in its new space by mid 2023.
Property Bought Within Months After Harvey
The same couple bought both parcels of land in mid-December 2017, according to appraisal district records. And within a year after that, Google Earth shows that they had built the Humble Sign building.
God bless small-business people. They provide almost half of all the jobs in America.
It takes guts to bet your life savings when you start a small business. So who can blame entrepreneurs trying to save some money on land?
Humble Sign is elevating the new building slightly. (Note the fill in the construction photo above.) That’s good news. It should give them a small margin of extra safety.
Building Next to the Danger Zone
Still, building next to a floodplain that will soon expand is risky business. FEMA developed that map above in response to Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and made it official in 2006. But Harvey triggered another update that will expand floodplains significantly.
FEMA has said that the new 100-year floodplain will expand into the old 500-year floodplain in most places throughout the Houston region. Not only were our rainfall assumptions off after Allison, rampant new development continues unabated and often unmitigated upstream.
So let’s pray the owners added enough fill.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/12/23
2021 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Nearly All Voting Problems in Republican Strongholds
A new 10-minute video by investigative reporter Wayne Dolcefino shows heat maps of Republican-leaning areas in Harris County and where voting problems occurred in the November 2022 elections. Superimposing one on top of the other shows that virtually all of the areas running out of ballot paper occurred in Republican strongholds.
County Officials Still Stonewalling Document Requests
Dolcefino filed a lawsuit earlier this year because of Harris County’s refusal to provide public records relating to the election. Gallery-Furniture-owner Jim McIngvale is also a plaintiff in the lawsuit.
A computer expert named Russ Long from the oil and gas industry painstakingly pieced together the maps using data from other sources. Long began by sorting out the addresses of people who voted in Republican, but not Democratic primaries in 1150 voting precincts in Harris County. From that he identified the Republican-leaning precincts.
Paper Galore, But Not Evenly Distributed
Long is also a precinct captain in Cypress, TX. When he picked up ballot paper, he could immediately see that it wasn’t enough. Long told them he needed double the amount, but was told no more was available – despite the county having ordered 4 million sheets, far more than the number of registered voters in the county.
HarrisVotes.com shows that approximately 830,000 people voted early in person or by mail. About another 1.1 million voted on Election Day. Only the race for governor had more than 1.1 million ballots cast on Election Day and that total was 1,102,418. So there should have been two million extra sheets of paper.
Yet 121 polling places ran out of paper. And look where virtually all of them were!
Despite the problems, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who chairs the Elections Commission, has not called a meeting of the commission since November, according to Dolcefino. Nor has the county released election records requested by Dolcefino under the Texas Public Information Act.
“The release of this information related to our election is way past due,” said Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey.
“What’s wrong with sunshine? Shine the light on it,” said McIngvale.
Early Voting Starts Next Month for Next Election
It will take months to resolve these issues in the courts or the legislature. Dolcefino emphasizes the need for full disclosure now. We have another election in May. Early voting starts on April 24th, in a little more than a month. And we’ve had five months of stonewalling since the last election.
“None of the Democratic-leaning precincts came close to running out of ballots,” said Dolcefino.
Long added, “There would have been riots in the streets if they had.”
The problems may be worse than Dolcefino is reporting. For instance, the map above shows only one polling place in Kingwood that ran out of ballot paper. But I personally know of at least two.
And Dolcefino has not yet even reported on the problems with handicapped voting. Reliable sources tell me of technology problems countywide associated with curbside voting for handicapped people. Again, I personally witnessed those at multiple locations.
Elections Administrator Hired Despite Reported Problems on Last Job
According to Dolcefino’s video, Clifford Tatum, the Elections Administrator, reportedly ran into problems with a similar job he held in Washington D.C.
Previously, the people who ran Harris County elections were elected themselves. Hidalgo changed that, however. She created an office of Elections Administration with an appointed head. Tatum is Hidalgo’s second head of that office. The first resigned after problems with an earlier election.
Many races on last November’s ballot were decided by just a few hundred votes. Without actual records, it’s impossible to tell whether ballot issues skewed election results.
We need to get to the bottom of these problems sooner rather than later. If Hidalgo has nothing to hide, why hide it?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/10/2023
2019 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
NWS Says La Niña Has Ended, Likely Impact on Weather
On March 9, 2023, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) announced that La Niña conditions which persisted for 3-years have finally ended. But we are not shifting directly into El Niño. Instead, we’re entering a transitional phase. NWS expects neutral conditions to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into spring and early summer of 2023.
La Niña and El Niño represent opposite phases of what meteorologists call ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. They govern recurring climate patterns across the tropical Pacific and have a cascade of global side effects, says NWS.
The patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years. This past La Niña phase lasted three years, an unusually long time.
NWS predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. The weather service also predicts El Niño conditions to form during summer 2023 and persist through the fall.
Impacts on Weather
The oscillation brings predictable shifts in ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures. These shifts disrupt the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
El Niño brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. in winter months. It also brings stronger steering currents that can disrupt low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that turn into hurricanes.
La Niña, on the other hand, usually means less disruption, more Atlantic storms, and deeper droughts in the southern U.S. But we’re finally putting the most recent La Niña behind us.
ENSO Influence on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
The continental United States and Caribbean Islands have a substantially decreased chance of experiencing a hurricane during El Niño and an increased chance of experiencing a hurricane during La Niña. These maps (by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell) explain why.
Overall, El Niño contributes to more eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Conversely, La Niña contributes to fewer eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes – exactly the opposite.
Other Influences on Hurricane Formation: AMO
NOAA also says that other oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) also influence hurricane formation. The warm phase of the AMO is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and high hurricane activity in the main development region of the Atlantic between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
“The hurricane activity in any given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO,” says NOAA.
For More Information
For a fuller discussion of how El Niño and La Niña influence other aspects of weather worldwide, check out NOAA’s Climate.gov, especially the FAQ page.
Also, the Associated Press ran an interesting story this morning by Seth Borenstein. The headline: “La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone.”
Borenstein says NOAA gives El Niño a 60% chance of returning this fall. But there’s also a 5% chance that La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth winter.
We should have more certainty in a few months.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/9/23
2018 Days since Hurricane Harvey