According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, we can expect more heavy rainfall today. Showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning with a line of thunderstorms extending from near Columbus to near Bay City. Showers and thunderstorms are also developing ahead of this line.
Lindner also adds that the storms’ forward motion is fast enough to help limit any one area from experiencing an excessive amount of rainfall.
More concentrated showers and thunderstorms will likely move into Houston metro area between 6 and 8 a.m. This may result in some street flooding under the heaviest storms. Activity will linger into the midday hours.
Primary Heavy Rainfall Threat During Morning Hours
As the low pressure system over central Texas begins to lift northward today, drier air will move in from the west and rainfall will become increasingly isolated during the afternoon hours.
Additional rainfall this morning of 1-2 inches will be common with isolated totals of 3-5 inches under any areas of cell training.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Main threat remains street flooding through the morning hours. While rises on area creeks and bayous will be likely with heavy rainfall this morning, the chances for significant and widespread flooding are low.
Beyond Today
The unsettled weather pattern will continue into late week. This weekend and early next week, another slow moving upper level system over northern Mexico will slowly progress into Texas.
Those storms will probably drop more rain on central and southwest Texas than southeast Texas. But how and whether they advance eastward is still in question.
The more significant flood threat this weekend will focus west of Houston. However, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Houston area through the weekend and into next week.
Forecasted Rainfall Today
Source: National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center5/10/23
Forecasted Rainfall Next 7 Days
Source: National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center5/10/23.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/10/2023 based on info from Harris County
2080 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image001-2.png?fit=800%2C563&ssl=1563800adminadmin2023-05-10 06:35:182023-05-10 06:37:49Potential For More Heavy Rainfall Continues into Midday
A flood watch is in effect from now until 7:00 PM Wednesday, May 10, 2023.
Here are the headlines. According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner expect:
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible today-Wednesday.
Street flooding along with significant rises on creeks, bayous, and rivers.
Widespread rainfall 1-3 inches with isolated totals possibly reaching 5-7 inches or more.
A pattern similar to May floods in 2015, 2016 and 2019.
Deep Tropical Moisture
A flood and flash-flood threat is materializing across SE TX and will last into Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture is in place with a nearly saturated air mass across the region. Continued onshore flow will pump a steady stream of low-level Gulf moisture into the region.
In the mid and upper levels, a stream of Pacific moisture is noted with total column water values near maximum levels for this time of year.
A mid- and upper-level low-pressure system currently over SW/S TX will slowly move ENE/NE into the Houston area today and tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall rates will be possible.
This pattern started yesterday afternoon. 2-4 inch-per-hour rates were recorded near Tomball. And the air mass now in place remains capable of such intense short-term rainfall.
Linder does not have much confidence in the details on how this will play out, but slow movement of cells suggests a flooding threat.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a moderate (3 of out 4) risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding both today and Wednesday.
Rainfall Amounts and Ground Conditions
Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches are likely with higher totals of 5-7 inches. Lindner says he “would not be surprised to see an isolated location approach 10-12 inches.” The map below shows expected total rainfall accumulation through May 15.
Grounds are becoming increasingly wet from rainfall over the last 48 hours and there is certainly concern moving forward with the potential for excessive rainfall rates and significant amounts of run-off.
Rises on area creek, bayous, and rivers will be possible over the next 48 hours, especially where the heaviest rains occur. Some creek and bayou flooding will be possible.
A round of thunderstorms has been moving toward Houston all morning and has already dumped 2″ on Cinco Ranch.
This week is the fourth anniversary of the May 7, 2019 flood that damaged hundreds of homes in Kingwood’s Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest villages. I asked Lindner if this pattern was similar.
He replied, “The upper level pattern this week is similar to previous heavy rainfall events in May of 2015, 2016, 2019. Given the moisture values in place along with the near continuous lift over the area…excessive rainfall rates will be possible in slow moving storms.”
The City of Houston has opened the floodgates at the Lake Houston Dam and is lowering water levels in anticipation of the approaching storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/9/2023
2079 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image001-1.png?fit=804%2C562&ssl=1562804adminadmin2023-05-09 11:08:542023-05-09 11:26:12Flood Watch In Effect
On September 26, 2022, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) announced a $5.2 million channel restoration project on Garners Bayou, a tributary of Greens Bayou. Garners Bayou cuts through Humble after leaving the Bush Intercontinental airport area. I was driving by yesterday with a drone, so I thought I would check the status of the project.
Work started in the fall of 2022. The project was supposed to take 360 days. But from the photos below, it looks as though they may finish sooner.
Project Location
Garners covers a lot of territory. The project itself covers only about a mile out of more than 12 stream miles. See the two maps below.
Garners Bayou starts in the upper left and angles toward the very middle of this map before joining Greens Bayou in the lower center.This closer view shows the project extent between Mesa Drive and Wilson Road.
Construction equipment accesses the work via Mesa Drive. The five photos below show the major segments of the repairs.
Photos Taken on 5/7/2023
Looking east from over Mesa Drive. Note the low water crossings. HCFCD started downstream and worked its way up to here.Farther downstream, just past the low water crossing visible in the first photo above.Note the major repair underway on the left.Even farther downstream, note the off-channel stormwater detention basin on the left by the tank.That’s the Wilson Road Bridge in the distance and the Atascocita Landfill in the upper left.
Level of Service Being Restored
Periodically, channels such as these need clean-out. Sediment washes downstream and the banks slump in, reducing the carrying capacity. So, instead of water staying in the channel during heavy storms, it spills out into surrounding neighborhoods and floods homes.
HCFCD rates channels in terms of a “level of service.” By that, the District means, it can safely handle a 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- or 100-year rainfall event. The District rates every segment of every channel in the county.
Backing up from the starting point in the series above, you can see how sediment has clogged the area under the Mesa Avenue Bridge. This doesn’t look as though its within the project scope, but I hope they clean it out.
Looking east at the Mesa Drive Bridge over Garners Bayou. Note sediment reducing flow under bridge.
Posted by bob Rehak on 5/8/2023
2078 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/20230507-DJI_0745.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-05-08 20:44:162023-05-08 23:40:28HCFCD Restoring Garners Bayou in Humble
Potential For More Heavy Rainfall Continues into Midday
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, we can expect more heavy rainfall today. Showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning with a line of thunderstorms extending from near Columbus to near Bay City. Showers and thunderstorms are also developing ahead of this line.
Lindner also adds that the storms’ forward motion is fast enough to help limit any one area from experiencing an excessive amount of rainfall.
More concentrated showers and thunderstorms will likely move into Houston metro area between 6 and 8 a.m. This may result in some street flooding under the heaviest storms. Activity will linger into the midday hours.
Primary Heavy Rainfall Threat During Morning Hours
As the low pressure system over central Texas begins to lift northward today, drier air will move in from the west and rainfall will become increasingly isolated during the afternoon hours.
Main threat remains street flooding through the morning hours. While rises on area creeks and bayous will be likely with heavy rainfall this morning, the chances for significant and widespread flooding are low.
Beyond Today
The unsettled weather pattern will continue into late week. This weekend and early next week, another slow moving upper level system over northern Mexico will slowly progress into Texas.
Those storms will probably drop more rain on central and southwest Texas than southeast Texas. But how and whether they advance eastward is still in question.
The more significant flood threat this weekend will focus west of Houston. However, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Houston area through the weekend and into next week.
Forecasted Rainfall Today
Forecasted Rainfall Next 7 Days
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/10/2023 based on info from Harris County
2080 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood Watch In Effect
A flood watch is in effect from now until 7:00 PM Wednesday, May 10, 2023.
Here are the headlines. According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner expect:
Deep Tropical Moisture
A flood and flash-flood threat is materializing across SE TX and will last into Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture is in place with a nearly saturated air mass across the region. Continued onshore flow will pump a steady stream of low-level Gulf moisture into the region.
In the mid and upper levels, a stream of Pacific moisture is noted with total column water values near maximum levels for this time of year.
A mid- and upper-level low-pressure system currently over SW/S TX will slowly move ENE/NE into the Houston area today and tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall rates will be possible.
This pattern started yesterday afternoon. 2-4 inch-per-hour rates were recorded near Tomball. And the air mass now in place remains capable of such intense short-term rainfall.
Linder does not have much confidence in the details on how this will play out, but slow movement of cells suggests a flooding threat.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a moderate (3 of out 4) risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding both today and Wednesday.
Rainfall Amounts and Ground Conditions
Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches are likely with higher totals of 5-7 inches. Lindner says he “would not be surprised to see an isolated location approach 10-12 inches.” The map below shows expected total rainfall accumulation through May 15.
Grounds are becoming increasingly wet from rainfall over the last 48 hours and there is certainly concern moving forward with the potential for excessive rainfall rates and significant amounts of run-off.
Rises on area creek, bayous, and rivers will be possible over the next 48 hours, especially where the heaviest rains occur. Some creek and bayou flooding will be possible.
A round of thunderstorms has been moving toward Houston all morning and has already dumped 2″ on Cinco Ranch.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Tuesday/Wednesday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Wednesday/Thursday
Monitor rainfall and channel conditions on a real time basis on the Harris County Flood Warning System.
This week is the fourth anniversary of the May 7, 2019 flood that damaged hundreds of homes in Kingwood’s Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest villages. I asked Lindner if this pattern was similar.
He replied, “The upper level pattern this week is similar to previous heavy rainfall events in May of 2015, 2016, 2019. Given the moisture values in place along with the near continuous lift over the area…excessive rainfall rates will be possible in slow moving storms.”
The City of Houston has opened the floodgates at the Lake Houston Dam and is lowering water levels in anticipation of the approaching storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/9/2023
2079 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Restoring Garners Bayou in Humble
On September 26, 2022, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) announced a $5.2 million channel restoration project on Garners Bayou, a tributary of Greens Bayou. Garners Bayou cuts through Humble after leaving the Bush Intercontinental airport area. I was driving by yesterday with a drone, so I thought I would check the status of the project.
Work started in the fall of 2022. The project was supposed to take 360 days. But from the photos below, it looks as though they may finish sooner.
Project Location
Garners covers a lot of territory. The project itself covers only about a mile out of more than 12 stream miles. See the two maps below.
Construction equipment accesses the work via Mesa Drive. The five photos below show the major segments of the repairs.
Photos Taken on 5/7/2023
Level of Service Being Restored
Periodically, channels such as these need clean-out. Sediment washes downstream and the banks slump in, reducing the carrying capacity. So, instead of water staying in the channel during heavy storms, it spills out into surrounding neighborhoods and floods homes.
HCFCD rates channels in terms of a “level of service.” By that, the District means, it can safely handle a 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- or 100-year rainfall event. The District rates every segment of every channel in the county.
Backing up from the starting point in the series above, you can see how sediment has clogged the area under the Mesa Avenue Bridge. This doesn’t look as though its within the project scope, but I hope they clean it out.
Posted by bob Rehak on 5/8/2023
2078 Days since Hurricane Harvey