On August 28, 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) published two lists of projects that it will advertise in the next year. The first contains upcoming HCFCD projects going out for construction bids. The second contains requests for qualifications and proposals (RFQs and RFPs) for engineering designs and studies.
Of the 50 total projects on the two lists, only one pertains to the Lake Houston Area, a request for qualifications (RFQ) on the Kingwood Diversion Ditch design.
Another is for Barrett Station Drainage Improvements, but Barrett Station is about 5 miles south of the Lake Houston dam near Highway 90 and FM2100.
There were no upcoming construction projects listed anywhere in the Kingwood/Lake Houston area.
In fact, only one construction project out of 24 even pertains to Precinct 3, a TC Jester stormwater detention basin.
Construction Projects Going Out for Bid
Virtually all projects on both lists pertain to precincts led by Democratic commissioners. Given how long it takes to get projects into construction, it could take years before the Kingwood Diversion Ditch project moves into construction.
Upcoming construction projects going out for bids in the next year.
It normally takes 3-4 months from the time HCFCD advertises a construction project before a shovel goes in the ground.
Engineering/Design Studies Being Advertised
From the time an engineering study goes out for bid, it normally takes 12-18 months until shovels turn, but the time can vary widely depending on the nature of the project. Here’s the most recent list of engineering jobs being advertised.
For printable lists of both types of projects in PDF format, click here.
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey also pointed out that he hopes to move forward with several Lake Houston Area drainage projects using his own budget, not HCFCD’s. So the picture isn’t quite as bleak as the lists above make it look. However, his team is not yet ready to talk about those projects.
The Taylor Gully and Woodridge Village engineering project(s) were previously advertised. “HCFCD awarded design to Halff based on qualifications,” said HCFCD spokesperson Beth Walters. “This effort will include both Taylor Gully and Woodridge, as the channel conveyance improvements on Taylor Gully cannot be constructed without having the appropriate stormwater mitigation in place first.”
Walters added, “We are currently negotiating scope items with Halff (the normal first step of the process once the consultant has been selected).”
After design completion, HCFCD will advertise for construction. Construction does not show up on these lists because it will be more than 12 months out.
Lake Houston Gates Being Handled by City of Houston
The City of Houston is handling the Lake Houston Gates project. So, it wouldn’t show up on the HCFCD lists either.
Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin had this to say about the status of the gates project. “We are presently in ‘final design’ on the eleven gate structure, in the earthen embankment area, east of the existing Lake Houston Spillway Dam.”
New gates will go to the right of the existing gates in the earthen portion of the dam.
“Estimated start of construction, pending permits, environmental studies, etc. will be 2025 Q1 or Q2,” said Martin. “Our money from the 2023 State legislative session should arrive by December 2023. We also have money from the 2021 state legislature which they will allow us to reappropriate from dredging to the gates if necessary.”
Martin also pointed to two dredging projects handled by the City. Canal dredging in Huffman is already underway. And “Within the next 2-3 weeks, we will start a FEMA funded project, south of the West Fork mouth bar, near Atascocita Shores,”said Martin. “This will remove approximately one million additional yards of sediment.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2023
2199 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-09-06-at-12.26.59-PM.png?fit=1506%2C882&ssl=18821506adminadmin2023-09-06 20:13:432023-09-06 20:20:49Upcoming HCFCD Projects Scarce in Precinct 3
NOAA’s new Atlas 15 precipitation-frequency estimates will soon replace recently introduced Atlas 14 estimates – even before the Atlas 14 estimates have been fully adopted and integrated into local regulations.
About Precipitation-Frequency Estimates
Engineers use precipitation-frequency estimates to design, plan and manage infrastructure under Federal, State and local regulations. For instance, to ensure homes are built X feet above the 100-year floodplain, engineers must “know” how much rain will fall in a 100-year storm. Predicting that is one of NOAA’s jobs.
However, haphazard adoption of the new estimates has created a patchwork quilt of regulations across Texas and the U.S. One of the dirty, little secrets in the flood mitigation business is that many jurisdictions fail to adopt the new estimates and update their regulations accordingly. It’s costly, time-consuming, and raises the bar for developers.
So, many jurisdictions continue to use lower estimates to help attract development.
But designing infrastructure around artificially low rainfall estimates can lead to insufficient mitigation that increases flood risk for everyone.
Some Estimates Now in Effect Go Back 60 Years
In 2018, NOAA introduced Atlas 14 precipitation-frequency estimates for Texas. They replaced earlier estimates published by NOAA as early as the 1960s. Some parts of the Houston region still use those earlier estimates today.
Atlas 14 estimates superseded those published in:
Weather Bureau Technical Paper No. 40, Rainfall Frequency Atlas of the United States for Durations from 30 Minutes to 24 Hours and Return Periods from 1 to 100 Years (Hershfield, 1961)
Weather Bureau Technical Paper No. 49, Two- to Ten-Day Precipitation for Return Periods of 2 to 100 Years in the Contiguous United States (Miller, 1964).
Newest Estimates Will Incorporate Climate Change
Compared to those, Atlas 14 estimates are more accurate. They incorporate data from newer technologies and more data collected over longer periods. Atlas 14 totals increased 30-40% for the Lake Houston Area.
The Atlas 15 estimates are just getting underway and have not yet been developed. NOAA expects to release them in 2027.
NOAA claims its Atlas-15 update will improve precipitation-frequency estimates by leveraging non-stationary climate estimates. Previous estimates, such as Atlas 14, have assumed a stationary climate.
In statistics, “non-stationary” means the underlying environment changes, say due to some strong trend or seasonality. Many people believe climate is changing and hence the desire to build that into the new precipitation-frequency estimates.
National Funding, New Updates Every 10 Years
Historically, NOAA precipitation-frequency estimates have been funded by states and other users, on a cost-reimbursable basis. However, that is changing.
Moving forward, the Federal government will fund precipitation-frequency updates. Under the Floods Act, signed into law in December 2022, NOAA will update precipitation-frequency estimates every 10 years.
Goals include:
Updating standards
Incorporating climate change
For the entire country.
Voluntary, Local Participation
But there’s a dirty little secret that not many people know about. Nothing forces individual cities, counties or states to adopt the estimates and work them into their regulations.
That’s a big job. And an expensive one. So, not all jurisdictions do it. Many areas surrounding Houston still plan infrastructure using data developed 60 years ago.
If you plan on less rain, channels can be narrower and stormwater-detention basins smaller. But residents are not protected as much as they should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/2023 based on information from NOAA.
2198 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-09-05-at-3.14.21-PM.png?fit=1686%2C846&ssl=18461686adminadmin2023-09-05 16:12:162023-09-05 16:12:17Here Come New Precipitation-Frequency Estimates…Again
It’s easy to forget flooding in the middle of a drought. But we should never forget that Texas ranks #2 in states with the most flood damage. This and other statistics below demonstrate why we shouldn’t become complacent.
Debris pile from Imelda flood in Elm Grove Village (Kingwood).
Different Measures, Similar Rankings
Many ways exist to rank flood-prone areas and Texas ranks high on most of them.
Most hurricanes? Out of the 300 hurricanes that made landfall in the US since 1851, Texas ranks #2 after Florida with 66 hitting the Lone Star state – 22% of the U.S. total.
Percentage of state’s total population living in floodplains? Texas ties for 10th according to a 2017 study. But a 2023 TWDB study shows that 20% of Texans now live in floodplains; that would tie us for 3rd if nothing else changed.
Most disaster declarations? Texas ranks #2 when considering all types.
Flood deaths? Texas ranks #1. Two hundred people died between 2010 and 2022. Over a longer period of time, 1959-2014, the state had over 850 flood deaths.
As bad as the Texas statistics are, Harris County’s are even worse.
Between 1978 and 2021, Harris County led all counties in the the entire countryfor NFIP claims filed (171,300), about 44% of the total claims for all of Texas.
It’s important to look at many different measures, because no one measure conveys the full picture. For instance:
Number of hurricanes also reflects miles of subtropical shoreline.
The sheer size and population of Texas make it rank high on many measures. Said another way, we are a big target.
The high clay content of our soils discourages infiltration and encourages runoff of rainfall.
Dollar losses may depend as much as on affluence or population density in floodplains as the severity of flooding.
Dollar losses in Texas also reflect old building codes in many locations.
And then there’s the huge number of mobile homes in Texas. They are notoriously susceptible to high winds, like those often associated with hurricanes.
Their placement also makes them more vulnerable to flooding than other types of housing. A study by Headwaters Economics found that one in seven mobile homes is located in an area with high flood risk, compared to one in 10 for all other housing types.
Texas, a Leader in…
Texas leads the nation in many things: oil, gas, cotton, job creation, economic expansion and more. Unfortunately, we’re also a leader in flooding.
That’s enough to make a dent in the state’s budget, but not the problem. Perhaps we need to re-examine our priorities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 4, 2023, Labor Day
2197 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Elm-Grove-9.19_71.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2023-09-04 17:02:452023-09-04 17:02:47Texas Ranks #2 in States with Most Flood Damage
Upcoming HCFCD Projects Scarce in Precinct 3
On August 28, 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) published two lists of projects that it will advertise in the next year. The first contains upcoming HCFCD projects going out for construction bids. The second contains requests for qualifications and proposals (RFQs and RFPs) for engineering designs and studies.
Of the 50 total projects on the two lists, only one pertains to the Lake Houston Area, a request for qualifications (RFQ) on the Kingwood Diversion Ditch design.
Another is for Barrett Station Drainage Improvements, but Barrett Station is about 5 miles south of the Lake Houston dam near Highway 90 and FM2100.
In fact, only one construction project out of 24 even pertains to Precinct 3, a TC Jester stormwater detention basin.
Construction Projects Going Out for Bid
Virtually all projects on both lists pertain to precincts led by Democratic commissioners. Given how long it takes to get projects into construction, it could take years before the Kingwood Diversion Ditch project moves into construction.
It normally takes 3-4 months from the time HCFCD advertises a construction project before a shovel goes in the ground.
Engineering/Design Studies Being Advertised
From the time an engineering study goes out for bid, it normally takes 12-18 months until shovels turn, but the time can vary widely depending on the nature of the project. Here’s the most recent list of engineering jobs being advertised.
For printable lists of both types of projects in PDF format, click here.
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey also pointed out that he hopes to move forward with several Lake Houston Area drainage projects using his own budget, not HCFCD’s. So the picture isn’t quite as bleak as the lists above make it look. However, his team is not yet ready to talk about those projects.
What About Taylor Gully/Woodridge Village?
Enquiring minds will ask, “What happened to Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village and the Lake Houston Gates projects?”
The Taylor Gully and Woodridge Village engineering project(s) were previously advertised. “HCFCD awarded design to Halff based on qualifications,” said HCFCD spokesperson Beth Walters. “This effort will include both Taylor Gully and Woodridge, as the channel conveyance improvements on Taylor Gully cannot be constructed without having the appropriate stormwater mitigation in place first.”
Walters added, “We are currently negotiating scope items with Halff (the normal first step of the process once the consultant has been selected).”
After design completion, HCFCD will advertise for construction. Construction does not show up on these lists because it will be more than 12 months out.
Lake Houston Gates Being Handled by City of Houston
The City of Houston is handling the Lake Houston Gates project. So, it wouldn’t show up on the HCFCD lists either.
Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin had this to say about the status of the gates project. “We are presently in ‘final design’ on the eleven gate structure, in the earthen embankment area, east of the existing Lake Houston Spillway Dam.”
“Estimated start of construction, pending permits, environmental studies, etc. will be 2025 Q1 or Q2,” said Martin. “Our money from the 2023 State legislative session should arrive by December 2023. We also have money from the 2021 state legislature which they will allow us to reappropriate from dredging to the gates if necessary.”
Martin also pointed to two dredging projects handled by the City. Canal dredging in Huffman is already underway. And “Within the next 2-3 weeks, we will start a FEMA funded project, south of the West Fork mouth bar, near Atascocita Shores,”said Martin. “This will remove approximately one million additional yards of sediment.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2023
2199 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Here Come New Precipitation-Frequency Estimates…Again
NOAA’s new Atlas 15 precipitation-frequency estimates will soon replace recently introduced Atlas 14 estimates – even before the Atlas 14 estimates have been fully adopted and integrated into local regulations.
About Precipitation-Frequency Estimates
Engineers use precipitation-frequency estimates to design, plan and manage infrastructure under Federal, State and local regulations. For instance, to ensure homes are built X feet above the 100-year floodplain, engineers must “know” how much rain will fall in a 100-year storm. Predicting that is one of NOAA’s jobs.
However, haphazard adoption of the new estimates has created a patchwork quilt of regulations across Texas and the U.S. One of the dirty, little secrets in the flood mitigation business is that many jurisdictions fail to adopt the new estimates and update their regulations accordingly. It’s costly, time-consuming, and raises the bar for developers.
So, many jurisdictions continue to use lower estimates to help attract development.
But designing infrastructure around artificially low rainfall estimates can lead to insufficient mitigation that increases flood risk for everyone.
Some Estimates Now in Effect Go Back 60 Years
In 2018, NOAA introduced Atlas 14 precipitation-frequency estimates for Texas. They replaced earlier estimates published by NOAA as early as the 1960s. Some parts of the Houston region still use those earlier estimates today.
Atlas 14 estimates superseded those published in:
Newest Estimates Will Incorporate Climate Change
Compared to those, Atlas 14 estimates are more accurate. They incorporate data from newer technologies and more data collected over longer periods. Atlas 14 totals increased 30-40% for the Lake Houston Area.
The Atlas 15 estimates are just getting underway and have not yet been developed. NOAA expects to release them in 2027.
NOAA claims its Atlas-15 update will improve precipitation-frequency estimates by leveraging non-stationary climate estimates. Previous estimates, such as Atlas 14, have assumed a stationary climate.
In statistics, “non-stationary” means the underlying environment changes, say due to some strong trend or seasonality. Many people believe climate is changing and hence the desire to build that into the new precipitation-frequency estimates.
National Funding, New Updates Every 10 Years
Historically, NOAA precipitation-frequency estimates have been funded by states and other users, on a cost-reimbursable basis. However, that is changing.
Moving forward, the Federal government will fund precipitation-frequency updates. Under the Floods Act, signed into law in December 2022, NOAA will update precipitation-frequency estimates every 10 years.
Goals include:
Voluntary, Local Participation
But there’s a dirty little secret that not many people know about. Nothing forces individual cities, counties or states to adopt the estimates and work them into their regulations.
That’s a big job. And an expensive one. So, not all jurisdictions do it. Many areas surrounding Houston still plan infrastructure using data developed 60 years ago.
If you plan on less rain, channels can be narrower and stormwater-detention basins smaller. But residents are not protected as much as they should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/2023 based on information from NOAA.
2198 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Texas Ranks #2 in States with Most Flood Damage
It’s easy to forget flooding in the middle of a drought. But we should never forget that Texas ranks #2 in states with the most flood damage. This and other statistics below demonstrate why we shouldn’t become complacent.
Different Measures, Similar Rankings
Many ways exist to rank flood-prone areas and Texas ranks high on most of them.
Harris County Ranking
As bad as the Texas statistics are, Harris County’s are even worse.
Between 1978 and 2021, Harris County led all counties in the the entire country for NFIP claims filed (171,300), about 44% of the total claims for all of Texas.
Moreover, 42% of all Texans living in floodplains live in the San Jacinto watershed. The number of floodplain dwellers in the San Jacinto watershed alone exceeds the population of 15 states and the District of Columbia.
A Big Target
It’s important to look at many different measures, because no one measure conveys the full picture. For instance:
And then there’s the huge number of mobile homes in Texas. They are notoriously susceptible to high winds, like those often associated with hurricanes.
Their placement also makes them more vulnerable to flooding than other types of housing. A study by Headwaters Economics found that one in seven mobile homes is located in an area with high flood risk, compared to one in 10 for all other housing types.
Texas, a Leader in…
Texas leads the nation in many things: oil, gas, cotton, job creation, economic expansion and more. Unfortunately, we’re also a leader in flooding.
Better land-use and building codes could certainly help reduce the flooding. But will the state’s new flood plan recommend that? The focus seems to be on flood mitigation more than flood prevention.
The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group recommended $46 billion worth of studies and mitigation projects in its regional plan. And the San Jacinto is just one of 15 watersheds in the state!
In sharp contrast to the magnitude of mitigation needs, the legislature voted only approximately $1 billion for flood prevention projects this year.
That’s enough to make a dent in the state’s budget, but not the problem. Perhaps we need to re-examine our priorities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 4, 2023, Labor Day
2197 Days since Hurricane Harvey