Today, September 10 is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
NOAA calculates the peak by looking at the number of storms per day in the last hundred years. And September 10th takes the prize with approximately 95 named storms. That’s almost one per year on this date. You would have about a 5% chance of NOT having a named storm in the Atlantic Basin on September 10th, according to this data.
And true to form, today, the Atlantic has two named storms, Lee and Margot, as I write this. However, neither is anywhere near the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
NOAA hasn’t really been collecting hurricane data back 100 years. The chart above is based on 77 years of data, but “normalized” to 100 years to make the frame of reference more intuitive.
The 77-year period extends from 1944 to 2020, starting at the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era.
So Far This Year Vs. Average Season
Usually, by September 9, we’ve had eight named storms in the Atlantic Basin. That would be the H storm. However, this year, we’re already on the M storm. That puts us five storms ahead of the average year.
But wait! This year we also had a bonus storm in January. Only after re-analysis did the National Hurricane Center realize that it should have named the storm. But it didn’t. So, we’re really six storms ahead of the average season so far. And that’s far above the average.
Only two named storms in the Gulf so far this year. Neither has come close to Houston.
The chart above is updated monthly and does not include the two named storms now in the Atlantic.
Forecast vs. Actual to Date
So, at the mid-point, how does this season compare to predictions? If the second half of the season is anything like the first, we could easily have more named storms and more major hurricanes than predicted by NOAA in its August 10 seasonal update.
Earlier this year, forecasters increased their predictions from a normal season to an above normal season. They predicted 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). We’ve already had 14.
Of those, NOAA said 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). We’ve had 4 so far (Don, Franklin, Idalia and Lee).
And of those, forecasters said 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). We’ve had 3 of those so far (Franklin, Idalia and Lee). Franklin and Idalia reached Category 4 strength. Lee briefly exploded into a Cat 5.
Forecasters have linked storm intensity to sea surface temperatures. When average storms hit very warm waters, they can intensify quickly. And that is exactly what has happened this year.
Here’s a look at sea surface temperature anomalies (departure from normal) around the world.
Virtually everything between Africa and Houston is 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit). Sea surface temperature data is current as of Sept. 9, 2023…just one day before the peak of hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 10, 2023 based on information from NHC.
2203 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/peakofseason.gif?fit=831%2C546&ssl=1546831adminadmin2023-09-10 17:25:282023-09-10 17:31:15Peak of Hurricane Season is Today!
Damn the downstream consequences, including sediment pollution, increased flood risk and monstrous dredging costs. Colony Ridge, the controversial 30+ square-mile, Liberty County development that markets to Hispanics – while flaunting drainage,environmental and fire regulations – is clearing and paving thousands of additional acres.
Not even Google Earth can keep up with the developer’s relentless expansion. On 8/12/23, I flew over Colony Ridge in a helicopter and found huge areas where 3-week-old satellite imagery was already hopelessly out of date.
Google Earth image from 7/18/23. Red/yellow highlighted areas changed radically within three weeks.
With the exception of areas protected by the Houston-Conroe and Tarkington Bayou Mitigation Banks, the highlighted areas above have largely been cleared and/or paved.
The RED area now has paving not visible in the satellite image. The YELLOW area was being cleared and paving was just starting even though the image shows none of that. So what do these areas look like from a few hundred feet?
Pictures Taken 8/12/23 over Red Area
I shot the four pictures below on 8/12/23. They represent dozens of others. The red area already has most streets, but no fire hydrants.
Pictures Taken over Yellow Area
The two pictures below show some of the development activity taking pace in the yellow area.
Looking west across newly cleared area.Looking N at part of Colony Ridge expansion.
What kind of homes will go here? To predict the future, look to the past.
Homes on Parade
Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park. One Plum Grove resident who lives near a northern entrance to Colony Ridge says she routinely sees up to seven mobile homes per day going into the development – seven days per week.
It’s hard to know exactly how many new homes arrive each day, because there are other entrances. But if you assume the max for this one entrance, 50 homes a week times 52 weeks makes up to 2600 homes per year.
Manufactured home making its way through the main commercial area of Colony Ridge.Room with a view…of severe erosion.
Note the erosion in photos above and below. It will make its way downstream into the East Fork San Jacinto. These ditches are typical of Colony Ridge. The eroded sediment will reduce conveyance of the river and contribute to flooding.
Poverty: The Mother of Pollution
Ghandi once said, “Poverty is the mother of pollution.” That’s certainly the case here. But I would modify the saying. While poverty may be the mother of pollution; greed is the father.
The poverty of the residents doesn’t cause sediment pollution. But a business plan built on high-interest-rate, owner financing that targets impoverished people with few options does.
The developer seems to have found a target market that is less concerned with their environment than survival.
It’s a market ripe for exploitation where corners can be cut. Residents have few options and can’t complain.
And the developer shows little interest in changing a business model that fuels relentless expansion and growth. Damn the downstream consequences.
Colony Ridge drainage ditch.Working drainage is a luxury.
The poverty in Colony Ridge is crushing. I’ve seen people sleeping in tents trying to save enough money to buy a camper to live in.
No bathroom in sight.Do Liberty County health codes really allow this?Christmas dinner. Enlargement of this photo from Christmas 2020 shows food on the table in the foreground.One small part of Colony Ridge.The market for a piece of the American dream stretches endlessly in Liberty County.
The estimated population of Colony Ridge is now greater than the three largest cities in Liberty County (Cleveland, Dayton, and Liberty) put together. No one knows what the population is with certainty because of the large number of undocumented aliens who did not participate in the last census.
And the Colony Ridge developer is expanding into Harris and Montgomery Counties. ReduceFlooding will monitor progress of those areas to see if they, too, contribute to sediment accumulation, dredging costs, and flooding.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/23
Posted by Bob Rehak 2202 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Compared to July, Woodridge Village excavation activity almost doubled in August.
As of close of business on September 6, 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) contractor Sprint Sand and Clay has excavated 146,104 cubic yards of material to expand the stormwater detention basin capacity on Woodridge Village.
At the end of July, Sprint had excavated 135, 751 cubic yards. That means the company excavated another 10, 353 cubic yards in August, or 6.4 acre feet.
And that brought the total excavated to date up to 361.6 acre feet, or 94% of the Atlas 14 requirement.
Stepping Up Stormwater Detention Capacity
When Perry Homes sold the site to HCFCD and City of Houston, the site had five detention basins totaling 271 acre feet. The new basin has the potential to more than double that volume.
Think of the expansion of Woodridge Village stormwater-detention-basin capacity in four stages:
The starting point, i.e., what the site had when purchased from Perry Homes.
An additional amount that Sprint has excavated to date.
The Atlas-14 requirement.
The contract max (500,000 cubic yards).
Here’s how the various stages look in a table.
Acre Feetof Stormwater Detention
% of Atlas-14 Requirement
% of Ultimate
Site Had When Purchased from Perry Homes
271
70%
47%
Has as of 9/6/23
361.6
94%
62.3%
Atlas 14 Requires
385
100%
66%
If Sprint Excavates All 500K Cubic Feet
580
150%
100%
As of 9/6/23.
I based all calculations on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint’s contract.
Photos Taken 9/7/2023
Here’s how Woodridge Village excavation activity looks on the ground.
The site was busier today last month. Trucks constantly shuttled in and out.Looking NE across the new basin and the main part of Woodridge VillageLooking SW toward site entrance, Kingwood Park HS and Woodland Hills DriveMain thrust of work during August appears to be toward the east.An excavator loaded several trucks while I watched.
Sprint can take material wherever it wants, but must excavate from within the red boundary line.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. An engineer familiar with HCFCD operations estimates that if HCFCD had to pay market rates to have that 146,000 cubic yards moved, it would have cost taxpayers between $1.46 million and $2.9 million. He based those numbers on recent bids.
So, the Sprint contract is a good deal for taxpayers, but it carries some uncertainty with it.
If the demand for dirt dries up, excavation could slow or stop.
Next Steps
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network.
HCFCD awarded the engineering project for all that to Halff, based on the company’s qualifications. HCFCD is currently negotiating the scope of the project with Halff.
At the current rate of excavation, Sprint could reach Atlas 14 requirements by the end of the year. But the contractor is still less than a third of the way through its contract maximum of 500,000 cubic yards.
Construction of Taylor Gully conveyance improvements cannot move forward until the appropriate stormwater mitigation on Woodridge Village is in place first. Only one thing is certain at this point. That could still be awhile.
But there is good news. In the meantime, the extra Woodridge Village detention basin capacity will go a long way toward reducing flood risk for people downstream.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/23
2200 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230907-DJI_0444-2.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-09-07 14:59:392023-09-09 11:56:30Woodridge Village Excavation Activity Almost Doubles
Peak of Hurricane Season is Today!
Today, September 10 is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
NOAA calculates the peak by looking at the number of storms per day in the last hundred years. And September 10th takes the prize with approximately 95 named storms. That’s almost one per year on this date. You would have about a 5% chance of NOT having a named storm in the Atlantic Basin on September 10th, according to this data.
And true to form, today, the Atlantic has two named storms, Lee and Margot, as I write this. However, neither is anywhere near the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
NOAA hasn’t really been collecting hurricane data back 100 years. The chart above is based on 77 years of data, but “normalized” to 100 years to make the frame of reference more intuitive.
The 77-year period extends from 1944 to 2020, starting at the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era.
So Far This Year Vs. Average Season
Usually, by September 9, we’ve had eight named storms in the Atlantic Basin. That would be the H storm. However, this year, we’re already on the M storm. That puts us five storms ahead of the average year.
But wait! This year we also had a bonus storm in January. Only after re-analysis did the National Hurricane Center realize that it should have named the storm. But it didn’t. So, we’re really six storms ahead of the average season so far. And that’s far above the average.
The chart above is updated monthly and does not include the two named storms now in the Atlantic.
Forecast vs. Actual to Date
So, at the mid-point, how does this season compare to predictions? If the second half of the season is anything like the first, we could easily have more named storms and more major hurricanes than predicted by NOAA in its August 10 seasonal update.
Earlier this year, forecasters increased their predictions from a normal season to an above normal season. They predicted 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). We’ve already had 14.
Of those, NOAA said 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). We’ve had 4 so far (Don, Franklin, Idalia and Lee).
And of those, forecasters said 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). We’ve had 3 of those so far (Franklin, Idalia and Lee). Franklin and Idalia reached Category 4 strength. Lee briefly exploded into a Cat 5.
Forecasters have linked storm intensity to sea surface temperatures. When average storms hit very warm waters, they can intensify quickly. And that is exactly what has happened this year.
Here’s a look at sea surface temperature anomalies (departure from normal) around the world.
Virtually everything between Africa and Houston is 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit). Sea surface temperature data is current as of Sept. 9, 2023…just one day before the peak of hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 10, 2023 based on information from NHC.
2203 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Damn the Downstream Consequences, Colony Ridge Expansion Continues Relentlessly
Damn the downstream consequences, including sediment pollution, increased flood risk and monstrous dredging costs. Colony Ridge, the controversial 30+ square-mile, Liberty County development that markets to Hispanics – while flaunting drainage, environmental and fire regulations – is clearing and paving thousands of additional acres.
Not even Google Earth can keep up with the developer’s relentless expansion. On 8/12/23, I flew over Colony Ridge in a helicopter and found huge areas where 3-week-old satellite imagery was already hopelessly out of date.
With the exception of areas protected by the Houston-Conroe and Tarkington Bayou Mitigation Banks, the highlighted areas above have largely been cleared and/or paved.
The RED area now has paving not visible in the satellite image. The YELLOW area was being cleared and paving was just starting even though the image shows none of that. So what do these areas look like from a few hundred feet?
Pictures Taken 8/12/23 over Red Area
I shot the four pictures below on 8/12/23. They represent dozens of others. The red area already has most streets, but no fire hydrants.
Pictures Taken over Yellow Area
The two pictures below show some of the development activity taking pace in the yellow area.
What kind of homes will go here? To predict the future, look to the past.
Homes on Parade
Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park. One Plum Grove resident who lives near a northern entrance to Colony Ridge says she routinely sees up to seven mobile homes per day going into the development – seven days per week.
It’s hard to know exactly how many new homes arrive each day, because there are other entrances. But if you assume the max for this one entrance, 50 homes a week times 52 weeks makes up to 2600 homes per year.
Note the erosion in photos above and below. It will make its way downstream into the East Fork San Jacinto. These ditches are typical of Colony Ridge. The eroded sediment will reduce conveyance of the river and contribute to flooding.
Poverty: The Mother of Pollution
Ghandi once said, “Poverty is the mother of pollution.” That’s certainly the case here. But I would modify the saying. While poverty may be the mother of pollution; greed is the father.
The poverty of the residents doesn’t cause sediment pollution. But a business plan built on high-interest-rate, owner financing that targets impoverished people with few options does.
It’s a market ripe for exploitation where corners can be cut. Residents have few options and can’t complain.
And the developer shows little interest in changing a business model that fuels relentless expansion and growth. Damn the downstream consequences.
In virtually every area I have photographed, he has not planted vegetation on the banks of the channels. Nor has he used silt fences or installed backslope interceptor swales to reduce erosion as Liberty County regulations require.
Instead of the developer bearing those costs, downstream residents in the Lake Houston Area do. Since Harvey, the Army Corps, Harris County and City of Houston have spent more than $220 million of your tax dollars to dredge excess sediment shed from rivers of mud like this.
The poverty in Colony Ridge is crushing. I’ve seen people sleeping in tents trying to save enough money to buy a camper to live in.
The estimated population of Colony Ridge is now greater than the three largest cities in Liberty County (Cleveland, Dayton, and Liberty) put together. No one knows what the population is with certainty because of the large number of undocumented aliens who did not participate in the last census.
And the Colony Ridge developer is expanding into Harris and Montgomery Counties. ReduceFlooding will monitor progress of those areas to see if they, too, contribute to sediment accumulation, dredging costs, and flooding.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/23
Posted by Bob Rehak 2202 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Woodridge Village Excavation Activity Almost Doubles
Compared to July, Woodridge Village excavation activity almost doubled in August.
As of close of business on September 6, 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) contractor Sprint Sand and Clay has excavated 146,104 cubic yards of material to expand the stormwater detention basin capacity on Woodridge Village.
At the end of July, Sprint had excavated 135, 751 cubic yards. That means the company excavated another 10, 353 cubic yards in August, or 6.4 acre feet.
And that brought the total excavated to date up to 361.6 acre feet, or 94% of the Atlas 14 requirement.
Stepping Up Stormwater Detention Capacity
When Perry Homes sold the site to HCFCD and City of Houston, the site had five detention basins totaling 271 acre feet. The new basin has the potential to more than double that volume.
Think of the expansion of Woodridge Village stormwater-detention-basin capacity in four stages:
Here’s how the various stages look in a table.
I based all calculations on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint’s contract.
Photos Taken 9/7/2023
Here’s how Woodridge Village excavation activity looks on the ground.
Outline of Excavation
Harris County Commissioners Court approved the contract with Sprint Sand and Clay on July 20, 2021. It obligates Sprint to remove at least 5,000 cubic yards per month. Excavation started on January 27, 2022.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. An engineer familiar with HCFCD operations estimates that if HCFCD had to pay market rates to have that 146,000 cubic yards moved, it would have cost taxpayers between $1.46 million and $2.9 million. He based those numbers on recent bids.
So, the Sprint contract is a good deal for taxpayers, but it carries some uncertainty with it.
If the demand for dirt dries up, excavation could slow or stop.
Next Steps
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network.
HCFCD awarded the engineering project for all that to Halff, based on the company’s qualifications. HCFCD is currently negotiating the scope of the project with Halff.
At the current rate of excavation, Sprint could reach Atlas 14 requirements by the end of the year. But the contractor is still less than a third of the way through its contract maximum of 500,000 cubic yards.
Construction of Taylor Gully conveyance improvements cannot move forward until the appropriate stormwater mitigation on Woodridge Village is in place first. Only one thing is certain at this point. That could still be awhile.
But there is good news. In the meantime, the extra Woodridge Village detention basin capacity will go a long way toward reducing flood risk for people downstream.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/23
2200 Days since Hurricane Harvey