Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.
During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN,CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters,USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230916-1851_2017_allstorms.jpg?fit=1100%2C724&ssl=17241100adminadmin2023-09-16 11:54:002023-09-16 12:25:20Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.
Project Location Near Montgomery
Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.
The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.
Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams
The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.
Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.
When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”
Benefit-Cost Ratio
What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.
“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.
“Because of their costs, the reservoirs would almost certainly rely on some level of Federal participation for construction.”
Matt Barrett, PE
Competing Uses for Land
“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”
A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.
Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”
Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable
“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.
“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”
Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors
Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”
Alternative Possibilities
The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”
Harris County’s Office of Management and Budget proposed an 11.5% budget increase during the Commissioners Court special meeting held on September 12, 2023. See below.
Proposed on 9/12/2023, but not yet approved.
Flood Control Maintenance Increase
If adopted, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) would receive an $11.8 million increase from tax revenue for Maintenance and Operations spending – up 10.4% from FY2022.
Given the number of new capital projects, such as stormwater detention basins that Flood Control has created in the last year, that increase seems reasonable. The number of acres that HCFCD needs to maintain steadily increases as it builds new assets.
HCFCD now manages 2,500 miles of channels, more than 260 detention basins, 2 levee systems, 3 mitigation banks, and more than 3,200 buyout lots.
Two-thirds of Flood Control’s infrastructure was constructed before 1984 and much of it needs rehabilitation. The District has identified 160 assets with defects, 117 with blockages or conveyance issues, and 215 where vegetation requires serious attention.
As with anything, deferring maintenance too long can lead to failure. Then reconstruction costs can greatly exceed repair costs.
Flood Control Debt-Service Increase
Flood Control also shows an increase in its proposed tax rate to handle debt service – 8.2%. This makes sense as we keep borrowing more and more money against the $2.5 billion bond that voters authorized in 2018.
It could take decades to pay off the interest on money borrowed this year. And next year, we’ll borrow more. The total interest payments increase over time as borrowing accumulates. High interest rates like we have now can increase the total need even more.
Partner Contributions Help Offset Debt-Service, But Are Dropping
The $2.5 billion bond actually identified $5 billion worth of projects. A portion of the original $2.5 B was designated as local-match money to attract partner funding. So for every project, roughly half of the total cost was supposed to be local dollars (tax revenue and/or borrowing). The other half was supposed to have come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, and the State.
That said, partner funding never has come close to 50%. Q2 of 2020 came the closest at 41%. But the percentage has also dipped as low as 14% recently. Since the start of the bond, partner dollars have comprised 30% of all spending.
Partner spending in recent quarters has declined significantly. Through 22Q1, partner spending averaged $28.4 million per quarter. Since then, the quarterly total has averaged only $11.5 million. That’s a 59% decrease.
Through 22Q1, partner funding ranged between $20-45 million. Since then it hasn’t exceeded $20 million.
To make up for the lack of projected partner funds, HCFCD has had to spend more County/Bond dollars to keep projects moving. And it has done so in a period of high interest rates.
Note how drops in partner spending often trigger spikes in County spending.
As partner funds have fallen off in recent months, so has the overall level of HCFCD spending.
Data for this and all tables/graphs obtained from HCFCD via multiple FOIA requests.
Here’s the data which these graphs reflect. This particular series starts with the approval of the flood bond in late 2018.
Is It a Fair Budget Increase?
That depends on whether you see any flood-mitigation efforts that benefit you. If your area is getting projects, the answer is yes. But if not, you probably wouldn’t be happy with a 1% increase. And out of the $1.5 billion spent to date, precious little has been spent in the San Jacinto watershed.
Regardless, when setting budgets, we must consider dozens of different factors, not the least of which is partner funding. It can extend bond dollars. And consider this.
If we can use the HUD money to accelerate construction and preserve bond dollars, we might have enough money to complete all the projects in the bond.
Conversely, with a shortfall in the partnership percentage, more county dollars will go toward projects in low income neighborhoods. That may leave no money for projects in affluent neighborhoods before we burn through the bond funds.
At the very least, I say we need to beef up the HCFCD staff applying for grants. I’ll bet we can all agree on that.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2023
2207 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-09-14-at-6.26.16-PM.png?fit=1308%2C784&ssl=17841308adminadmin2023-09-14 21:16:572023-09-15 08:47:33Harris County Proposes 11.5% Budget Increase
Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN, CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters, USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Spring Creek Dams Facing Hurdles
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.
Project Location Near Montgomery
Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.
Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams
The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.
Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.
When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”
Benefit-Cost Ratio
What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.
“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.
Competing Uses for Land
“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”
A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.
Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”
Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable
“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.
“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”
Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors
Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”
Alternative Possibilities
The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”
For More Information
See these previous posts on the projects:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/15/2023
2208 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Proposes 11.5% Budget Increase
Harris County’s Office of Management and Budget proposed an 11.5% budget increase during the Commissioners Court special meeting held on September 12, 2023. See below.
Flood Control Maintenance Increase
If adopted, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) would receive an $11.8 million increase from tax revenue for Maintenance and Operations spending – up 10.4% from FY2022.
Given the number of new capital projects, such as stormwater detention basins that Flood Control has created in the last year, that increase seems reasonable. The number of acres that HCFCD needs to maintain steadily increases as it builds new assets.
HCFCD now manages 2,500 miles of channels, more than 260 detention basins, 2 levee systems, 3 mitigation banks, and more than 3,200 buyout lots.
Two-thirds of Flood Control’s infrastructure was constructed before 1984 and much of it needs rehabilitation. The District has identified 160 assets with defects, 117 with blockages or conveyance issues, and 215 where vegetation requires serious attention.
As with anything, deferring maintenance too long can lead to failure. Then reconstruction costs can greatly exceed repair costs.
Flood Control Debt-Service Increase
Flood Control also shows an increase in its proposed tax rate to handle debt service – 8.2%. This makes sense as we keep borrowing more and more money against the $2.5 billion bond that voters authorized in 2018.
It could take decades to pay off the interest on money borrowed this year. And next year, we’ll borrow more. The total interest payments increase over time as borrowing accumulates. High interest rates like we have now can increase the total need even more.
Partner Contributions Help Offset Debt-Service, But Are Dropping
The $2.5 billion bond actually identified $5 billion worth of projects. A portion of the original $2.5 B was designated as local-match money to attract partner funding. So for every project, roughly half of the total cost was supposed to be local dollars (tax revenue and/or borrowing). The other half was supposed to have come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, and the State.
That said, partner funding never has come close to 50%. Q2 of 2020 came the closest at 41%. But the percentage has also dipped as low as 14% recently. Since the start of the bond, partner dollars have comprised 30% of all spending.
Partner spending in recent quarters has declined significantly. Through 22Q1, partner spending averaged $28.4 million per quarter. Since then, the quarterly total has averaged only $11.5 million. That’s a 59% decrease.
To make up for the lack of projected partner funds, HCFCD has had to spend more County/Bond dollars to keep projects moving. And it has done so in a period of high interest rates.
As partner funds have fallen off in recent months, so has the overall level of HCFCD spending.
Here’s the data which these graphs reflect. This particular series starts with the approval of the flood bond in late 2018.
Is It a Fair Budget Increase?
That depends on whether you see any flood-mitigation efforts that benefit you. If your area is getting projects, the answer is yes. But if not, you probably wouldn’t be happy with a 1% increase. And out of the $1.5 billion spent to date, precious little has been spent in the San Jacinto watershed.
Regardless, when setting budgets, we must consider dozens of different factors, not the least of which is partner funding. It can extend bond dollars. And consider this.
The $750 million in HUD funds recently received by the County come with “use-it-or-lose-it” deadlines attached. HCFCD had a giant meeting with contractors last week to discuss such issues.
If we can use the HUD money to accelerate construction and preserve bond dollars, we might have enough money to complete all the projects in the bond.
Conversely, with a shortfall in the partnership percentage, more county dollars will go toward projects in low income neighborhoods. That may leave no money for projects in affluent neighborhoods before we burn through the bond funds.
At the very least, I say we need to beef up the HCFCD staff applying for grants. I’ll bet we can all agree on that.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2023
2207 Days since Hurricane Harvey.