7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.
Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay
According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.
Heavy Rain Threat
Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.
Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.
Flash Flood Threat
Arrival Time in Houston Area
We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.
Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.
Inundation Areas
NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.
Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour
At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.
The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.
For the Latest Updates
For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.
2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240706-Beryl-7.6.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C786&ssl=17861100adminadmin2024-07-06 09:28:122024-07-06 09:28:13Beryl Update, Saturday AM
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending data obtained via a Freedom of Information Act Request shows that countywide:
Spending now tops $2 billion since Hurricane Harvey back in 2017
It modestly rebounded between the first and second quarters of this year
More money is now going to land acquisition and construction compared to other phases of the project lifecycle, while less money is going to upfront studies
On a per watershed basis, watersheds with a majority of Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) residents still get far more than those with a minority of LMI residents.
Spending in the San Jacinto Watershed continues to lag despite high flood risk
Spending has fallen off a cliff in some watersheds.
For details, see below.
Modest Rebound Compared to 1Q24
The chart below shows HCFCD spending in 27 quarters since Hurricane Harvey. It shows a dramatic uptick between 2018 and 2021, followed by an even more dramatic decline through the first quarter of 2023. Since then, spending has averaged slightly more than $60 million per quarter, about half of the peak in 2021.
What accounts for the lower totals recently?
Changes in leadership and personnel turnover at HCFCD
Numerous changes in “equity” allocation formulas that required reprioritization of projects
Lengthy delays at Harris County Community Services involving more than $750 million in U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development funds.
COVID
Inflation during COVID forcing a re-evaluation of the Bond project list
The 2018 Flood Bond was considered a 10-year project. We are now almost 6 years into the bond, which was approved on the first anniversary of Harvey, but the money is only about 40% spent. That means projects are moving slower than originally anticipated. And that gives inflation a chance to gobble up a higher percentage of them.
More Money Now Going to Land Acquisition and Construction
On a positive note, more projects are moving off the drawing boards and into construction. You can see this trend most clearly by comparing two pie charts that show spending broken down by project phase. The first shows spending since Harvey and the second shows spending during the last quarter.
Looking back at the last 27 quarters, HCFCD spent 76% of its funds on right-of-way acquisition and construction. But during the last quarter, those combined percentages jumped to 85% – up 9%.
Meanwhile, feasibility studies and preliminary engineering reviews fell from 8% to 3% during the comparable periods.
Perhaps we’re starting to mitigate more than ruminate.
Since HarveyDuring second quarter this year
The following table may make it easier for you to compare percentages if you are viewing this on a phone.
Spending in Watersheds with Majority LMI Populations
The percentage of LMI residents in a watershed helps determine eligibility for flood-mitigation grants from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Of those, 8 have a majority of LMI residents.
Regardless, since Harvey, those 8 received almost as much money as the other 15 put together.
Since Harvey
Looking only at the last quarter, that trend has moderated somewhat.
Second quarter this year only
But on a per watershed basis, the 8 LMI watersheds still each receive an average of 5.5% of the budget. Meanwhile, the 15 other watersheds each receive an average of 3.7%.
This is largely a function of the weighting given to LMI-majority projects in Harris County’s equity prioritization project scoring formula.
Spending by Watershed: A Study in Extremes
Comparing bar graphs of spending by watershed shows extreme differences between the highs and lows that are getting wider.
Since Harvey, difference between high and low equaled 100 to 1.
Note also the disappearance of the middle ground.
During second quarter, difference between high and low equaled 375 to 1.
During the second quarter, the entire San Jacinto Watershed – the county’s largest – received less than $400,000 of support…while moving up from 13th place to 11th.
Harris County watersheds in the upper San Jacinto River Basin include Spring, Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Luce and San Jacinto. They all funnel through the Lake Houston Area.
Since Harvey, they have received about 20% of HCFCD spending. But they drain an area about 50% larger than where the rest of the other 80% of the money went.
And as we saw in May, that can have a huge impact on flood damage.
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) briefed the County’s Community Resilience Flood Task Force on how the extent of the May 2024 flood compared to Hurricane Harvey. In places, inundation matched Harvey. And in others it came close or fell short.
See the inundation map below. In my opinion, it dramatizes three things:
Serious flooding can happen any month of the year in the Houston region.
Flooding can happen anywhere that rain falls.
Flood-mitigation measures make a huge difference.
Inundation map from HCFCD comparing Harvey with May 2024 floods and evacuation zones.
Anytime
As the map above shows, major rain can fall outside of a hurricane season. In fact, May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston, exceeded only by June and October.
Of seven major storms to strike this area since 2016, four have happened outside of hurricane season.
Anywhere
The worst rainfall in the early May floods happened at the very top of the San Jacinto river basin in the upper portions of the East and West Forks. Parts of those watersheds received almost 20 inches of rain.
In Huntsville, Harvey dumped only 2 more inches of rain than a training band of thunderstorms in May 2024. The map above shows the results.
Cypress, Spring and Lake Creeks, which originate on the west side, received roughly a quarter to a third of the rain that fell to the north during early May.
However, during Harvey, the rainfall distribution was the opposite of the map above. Huntsville received about 17 inches while areas to the south received more than 40.
Flood-Mitigation Measures
The inundation map above shows the importance of another location-related variable: upstream stormwater detention. Note how much more blue you see on the West Fork than on the East Fork which is predominantly green. The West Fork has a dam at Lake Conroe which partially blocked the heaviest flows. The East Fork has no dams.
Development usually increases the speed and volume of runoff. Developers normally use detention basins to limit post-development runoff to pre-development rates, so that they don’t increase flooding.
But for the most part, that didn’t happen in Colony Ridge. And that contributed to flooding downstream.
The inundation map above should be a wakeup call. Of 16 major flood-mitigation projects identified in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, not one has even gotten to the drawing boards, much less off them – after four years.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/24
2500 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240627-Harvey-Vs-May-24-Storm.jpg?fit=1100%2C712&ssl=17121100adminadmin2024-07-03 13:35:122024-07-03 13:41:21How May 2024 Flood Compared to Harvey
Beryl Update, Saturday AM
7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.
Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay
According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.
Heavy Rain Threat
Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.
Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.
Flash Flood Threat
Arrival Time in Houston Area
We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.
Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.
Inundation Areas
NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.
Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour
At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.
The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.
For the Latest Updates
For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.
2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Where HCFCD Spending Goes
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending data obtained via a Freedom of Information Act Request shows that countywide:
For details, see below.
Modest Rebound Compared to 1Q24
The chart below shows HCFCD spending in 27 quarters since Hurricane Harvey. It shows a dramatic uptick between 2018 and 2021, followed by an even more dramatic decline through the first quarter of 2023. Since then, spending has averaged slightly more than $60 million per quarter, about half of the peak in 2021.
What accounts for the lower totals recently?
The 2018 Flood Bond was considered a 10-year project. We are now almost 6 years into the bond, which was approved on the first anniversary of Harvey, but the money is only about 40% spent. That means projects are moving slower than originally anticipated. And that gives inflation a chance to gobble up a higher percentage of them.
More Money Now Going to Land Acquisition and Construction
On a positive note, more projects are moving off the drawing boards and into construction. You can see this trend most clearly by comparing two pie charts that show spending broken down by project phase. The first shows spending since Harvey and the second shows spending during the last quarter.
Looking back at the last 27 quarters, HCFCD spent 76% of its funds on right-of-way acquisition and construction. But during the last quarter, those combined percentages jumped to 85% – up 9%.
Meanwhile, feasibility studies and preliminary engineering reviews fell from 8% to 3% during the comparable periods.
Perhaps we’re starting to mitigate more than ruminate.
The following table may make it easier for you to compare percentages if you are viewing this on a phone.
Spending in Watersheds with Majority LMI Populations
The percentage of LMI residents in a watershed helps determine eligibility for flood-mitigation grants from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Of those, 8 have a majority of LMI residents.
Regardless, since Harvey, those 8 received almost as much money as the other 15 put together.
Looking only at the last quarter, that trend has moderated somewhat.
But on a per watershed basis, the 8 LMI watersheds still each receive an average of 5.5% of the budget. Meanwhile, the 15 other watersheds each receive an average of 3.7%.
This is largely a function of the weighting given to LMI-majority projects in Harris County’s equity prioritization project scoring formula.
Spending by Watershed: A Study in Extremes
Comparing bar graphs of spending by watershed shows extreme differences between the highs and lows that are getting wider.
Note also the disappearance of the middle ground.
During the second quarter, the entire San Jacinto Watershed – the county’s largest – received less than $400,000 of support…while moving up from 13th place to 11th.
Harris County watersheds in the upper San Jacinto River Basin include Spring, Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Luce and San Jacinto. They all funnel through the Lake Houston Area.
Since Harvey, they have received about 20% of HCFCD spending. But they drain an area about 50% larger than where the rest of the other 80% of the money went.
And as we saw in May, that can have a huge impact on flood damage.
I wish HCFCD spending flowed to the Lake Houston Area as fast as the water.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2024
2502 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How May 2024 Flood Compared to Harvey
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) briefed the County’s Community Resilience Flood Task Force on how the extent of the May 2024 flood compared to Hurricane Harvey. In places, inundation matched Harvey. And in others it came close or fell short.
See the inundation map below. In my opinion, it dramatizes three things:
Anytime
As the map above shows, major rain can fall outside of a hurricane season. In fact, May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston, exceeded only by June and October.
Of seven major storms to strike this area since 2016, four have happened outside of hurricane season.
Anywhere
The worst rainfall in the early May floods happened at the very top of the San Jacinto river basin in the upper portions of the East and West Forks. Parts of those watersheds received almost 20 inches of rain.
In Huntsville, Harvey dumped only 2 more inches of rain than a training band of thunderstorms in May 2024. The map above shows the results.
Cypress, Spring and Lake Creeks, which originate on the west side, received roughly a quarter to a third of the rain that fell to the north during early May.
However, during Harvey, the rainfall distribution was the opposite of the map above. Huntsville received about 17 inches while areas to the south received more than 40.
Flood-Mitigation Measures
The inundation map above shows the importance of another location-related variable: upstream stormwater detention. Note how much more blue you see on the West Fork than on the East Fork which is predominantly green. The West Fork has a dam at Lake Conroe which partially blocked the heaviest flows. The East Fork has no dams.
But the East Fork and Luce Bayou do have the sprawling Colony Ridge Development. And Colony Ridge, especially the first 12,000 acres, has only a minuscule amount of stormwater detention. The development is now 50% larger than Manhattan.
Development usually increases the speed and volume of runoff. Developers normally use detention basins to limit post-development runoff to pre-development rates, so that they don’t increase flooding.
But for the most part, that didn’t happen in Colony Ridge. And that contributed to flooding downstream.
The inundation map above should be a wakeup call. Of 16 major flood-mitigation projects identified in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, not one has even gotten to the drawing boards, much less off them – after four years.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/24
2500 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.