5PM 1/25/24 – After four days of near constant rainfall, life returned to normal this morning. The sun came out. Birds sang. But for some, the ordeal is not done yet.
Crests on several creeks and area rivers are moving downstream and should converge on the Lake Houston Area this weekend.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, waves of water are still working their way down through our river systems. Low lying areas along both forks are already flooding upstream
Another disturbance will likely produce a few showers Friday afternoon into the evening hours, but accumulations will likely not top a half inch, according to Lindner.
Then dry and cooler weather over the weekend will give the area a chance to dry out. And rivers, creeks, and streams will have time to recede.
Lake Updates
Reservoirs throughout the region are passing large inflows through their gates.
At 5PM, Lake Conroe was three feet above normal and releasing 19,435 cubic feet per second adding to peaks on the West Fork San Jacinto.
Lake Houston was two feet above normal. Its floodgates have remained wide open since last Sunday and water is pouring over the spillway portion of the dam.
River Forecasts Show Peaks Traveling Downstream
Throughout today, flooding continued along several creeks and rivers as upstream flood waves moved downstream. Many of the creeks will be cresting today and falling while several of the rivers will continue to rise into Friday and the weekend as run-off accumulates and moves downstream.
Upper Spring Creek:
upstream of Hegar Road, Spring Creek has crested and is starting to fall quickly. It is near crest from Hegar Road downstream to SH 249. Conditions along the creek and the bridge crossings west of SH 249 will improve into tonight. The creek is still rising downstream of FM 2978 and some minor low land flooding will be possible near the creek banks tonight.
Attempts to cross some of the bridges this morning resulted in high water rescues. Never drive into high water.
Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks:
Mound Creek has crested and begun a very slow fall. The flood wave has reached Sharp Rd. on upper Cypress Creek and Cypress is rising. It will get to or just over bankfull tonight. Portions of Sharp Rd. may become flooded.
Flow may get high down at Katy Hockley. But at this time Lindner is not expecting any widespread impacts at or downstream of Katy Hockley as the capacity of the channel increases from Katy Hockley to US 290.
West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river leveled off today, but will begin a second rise tonight into Friday. Upstream flows at SH 242 and SH 99 as well as flows from Lake Creek are moving downstream.
The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge are under water and will remain flooded well into the weekend.
Note flooded turnarounds under US59 bridge at noon 1/25/24.
Several streets on the north bank of the river are flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.
Car parked on Lake Point Drive south of Hamblen Road this morning. West Fork in background.
The majority of the flooding will occur south of Hamblen Road, according to Lindner.
Homes south of Hamblen next to West Fork on 1/25/24 around 9AM.
However, he says a few locations north of Hamblen could see high water. And I took this photo West of 59 near the river this morning. Homes there were already surrounded by floodwaters.
South of Sorters-McClellan and West of US59, 10AM on 1/24/25
Most structures in these areas are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated.
Large portions of the Kingwood Golf course are or will be flooded.
Kings Harbor on 1/25/24 around noon.
Kings Harbor was well above water this morning, But the pier was not. Cue Mr. Clean.
At predicted levels, Lindner says that back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along tributaries such as Bens Branch. However, no flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.
NWS river forecast for West Fork at 59 as of 4PM 1/25/24.River could rise another footbefore cresting.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river has exceeded its banks and will continue to rise into the weekend from north of Plum Grove to Lake Houston.
East Fork San Jacinto at FM2090 in Plum Grove, Liberty County at 1:30PM on 1/25/24
This afternoon, when I took the shot above, I visited the Plum Grove VFD and found high-water rescue teams prepping for tomorrow and the weekend.
FM 1485 west of the river bridge over the East Fork will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time starting this afternoon.
Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd. will be cut-off.
The East Fork is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
The East Fork at FM1485 should crest on Saturday, almost 11 feet above its current level.Rising East Fork waters submerged a boardwalk in Kingwood’s East End Park, 1/25/24, midday.Photo courtesy of Sandy Krish
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston:
Upstream flow through Lake Houston will route into the lower San Jacinto River with high flows lasting through the weekend. Minor flooding is forecasted along the river from below Lake Houston to Galveston Bay. Low lying areas of Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa will experience flooding of roadways and may become cut-off (Rio Villa).
Higher than normal flows will impact vessel traffic around I-10 and vessels should be properly secured for a period of prolonged increased flows and high water levels.
Expect the river to rise another four feet downstream of the dam.
Trinity River:
Major flooding is forecasted from below Lake Livingston to Goodrich and near Liberty. Some homes below the lake will be flooded. Several subdivisions will be cut-off around Liberty and at the current forecasted levels…widespread extensive flooding over portions of Liberty County near the river and its tributaries can be expected.
The Trinity should rise another 2.5 feet near Liberty.
For More Information
Conditions are changing rapidly. For the most current information, always go straight to the source,
‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner
2340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/20240125-RJR_3137.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-01-25 18:01:562024-01-25 19:20:55For Most, Life Returned to Normal Today, But Flooding Is Not Done Yet
Update: I just got word that SJRA is starting to increase the release rate from Lake Conroe to up to 19,500 cubic feet per second as of 9PM Wednesday night. Their modeling suggests that will cause the West Fork at US59 to peak at 53.5 feet – above the major flood stage. The previously forecast peak this afternoon was 51.8 feet and flood stage is 49.3 feet. People in low-lying areas near the river, even those in elevated homes, should consider evacuating. The river may not recede below flood stage before next weekend.
National Weather Service (NWS) flood watches and warnings have been extended. Continued heavy rainfall today has many streams especially in the northern part of the Houston Region coming out of their banks.
NWS Houston/Galveston Office predicts that showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least 7am tomorrow, with most areas experiencing a 60% chance of rain. While additional accumulations should be mild tomorrow, the Weather Service warns that higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. The last wave of this marathon mess should push through overnight tonight. The sun may poke out by Thursday afternoon.
Rain-swollen confluence of San Jacinto West Fork (r) with Spring Creek (l) at US59at noon Wednesday. The normal river bank is defined by the arc of small shrubs just right of center.Low-lying streets in Lakewood Cove were already under water at noon today. West Fork is in upper left.
In the meantime, we aren’t out of the woods yet.
Flood Watch Through Noon Thursday
NWS has extended flood warnings and issued flood watches for large parts of SE Texas.
A flood watch means flooding is possiblein the highlighted areas above.
Flood Warning Through Midnight Tonight
Much of the area picked up another 1-3 inches today with much higher totals off to the north and northwest from Columbus to Brenham to Lufkin where a swath of 8-12 inches has fallen since Sunday night, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
A flood warning means flooding has already occurred or is expectedin highlighted areas above.
Upstream run-off continues to work into creeks in northern Waller, northwest Harris, and Montgomery Counties along with the San Jacinto River basin.
Areas with Flooding Concerns
The Harris County Flood Warning System shows that several channels are already out of their banks (red dots) or in danger of coming out (yellow triangles).
Harris County FWS as of 5PM on 1/24/24
For up-to-the-minute readouts on the status of a channel near you, go to Harris County Flood Warning System. Use the “Map view options” to select Channels, Channel Status. Under site selection, choose All.
Streams with Highest Flood Risk
According to Lindner, several creeks feeding into Lake Houston are already flooding. They include:
Upper Spring Creek:
Low land flooding of rural lands near the creek as well as roadway crossing across the creek is occurring from upstream of SH 249 to the headwaters. Several low bridge crossings over the creek are flooded and some impassable. The creek will peak tonight and begin a fall into Thursday. No structures have flooded. Any low-land flooding downstream of SH 249 will be limited as the capacity of the channel increases.
Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks:
Low-land flooding is ongoing along Mound Creek from eastern Waller County into extreme western Harris County. Water levels will peak tonight, then fall into Thursday. Flow from Little Mound Creek will route into upper Cypress Creek where a rise to near bankfull is likely around Sharp Rd. Sharp Rd may become inundated on Thursday. No structure flooding foreseen.
West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river is rising and will exceed its banks this evening and continue to rise into moderate flood levels over 50.0 ft on Thursday with a forecasted peak near 52.0 ft on Friday. At these levels, low land flooding will occur along much of the river from upstream of US 59 to Lake Houston.
The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge crossing will be under several feet of water. The City of Houston has already closed off traffic under the turnarounds.
Several streets on the north bank of the river will be flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.
The few structures in this area are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated. At these levels back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along these tributaries. No flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river is rising and will exceed its banks early Thursday and then continue to rise into moderate flood levels by late Friday into Saturday. FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time. Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd will be cut-off. The river is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.
Lake Houston:
Water levels will be elevated likely to the top or just over the top of bulkheads and docks in the lake as upstream flows are passed through the lake. Additionally, large amounts of floating debris will make any boating hazardous into the weekend.
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston:
While flooding is currently not forecasted, given the amount of water that will be moving through Lake Houston and over the spillway, a rise to potentially near flood levels is certainly possible downstream of Lake Houston at Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa. Low lying roads near the river may become inundated. Any possible flooding at locations below Lake Houston would be this weekend.
Lake Releases
At 5PM 1/24/24, the SJRA dashboard showed that Lake Conroe as at 203.78 feet, almost 3 feet above its normal elevation of 201 feet. SJRA has temporarily closed Lake Conroe because of high currents, submerged objects and floating debris.
Because of continuing high inflows, SJRA was releasing 16,525 cubic feet per second at 5PM. They have steadily increased the volume released for the last three days.
To put this in perspective, 16,525 CFS is half the discharge rate of Lake Conroe during the October 1994 storm. And it’s about a fifth of the maximum release rate during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Farther south, Houston Public Works has had its flood gates wide open since Sunday. Regardless, water is now going over the spillway. Normal lake level is 42.4 ft and it’s currently at 43.57 ft.
Early this morning, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for areas north of the Houston Metropolitan area. It will remain in effect through midnight tonight.
As of 2PM, NWS extended the flood watch to include Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties through Wednesday morning.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts heavy rainfall toward I-10 and the coast by tonight. More rain on top of what has already fallen along with elevated creeks and streams led to issuing the flood watches.
Five of the six watersheds most in danger of flooding flow into the Lake Houston Area. And the SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe.
Flood watch map from NWS Houston/Galveston officefor Wednesday AM
Forecast for Next 48 Hours
The ground has generally been saturated by yesterday’s rain and NWS predicts additional heavy rains today and tomorrow. The total could approach another 4.5 inches in the Lake Houston Area and even more to the north and west.
Those same areas received the highest rainfall totals yesterday on 1/22/24. Luckily, the rain has been fairly spread out until now.
Only One Stream in Region Currently Out of Banks
The San Jacinto West Fork came out of its banks at Highway 30 yesterday afternoon and is still out at noon on Tuesday, although waters have receded approximately a foot since the peak early this morning.
However, the Harris County Flood Warning system is also flashing warning signs for areas in the upper Cypress and Spring Creek Watersheds. All of those creeks are still within their banks as of noon Tuesday.
The map below shows the rainfall totals for the last 48 hours. Note how they peak in the north and west.
A gage on the Trinity River just west of Lake Livingston (not shown below) received 4.8 inches in the last 36 hours.
Two-day totals as of Noon 1/23/24
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Releasing Water
Heavy rains north and west of Lake Conroe have led the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to open the floodgates at Lake Conroe. The lake level is currently at 201.61 feet (normal 201) and the SJRA is releasing at a rate of 2665 cubic feet per second as a precaution against much larger releases later.
The City began releasing water from Lake Houston last Sunday in anticipation of this rainfall. At the noon hour on 1/23/24, Lake Houston is still slightly below normal. It is at 41.57 feet; normal is 42.4. But there’s much more headed toward the dam.
How to Monitor Flood Potential
If you live near water, monitor conditions closely.
Remember: It’s not just the rain that falls where you are at that causes flooding. Look upstream to see what’s coming at you.
We should begin to see some rises in the Lake Houston Area soon because of Lake Conroe releases and the heavy rainfall upstream on Spring and Cypress Creeks. They are the three main tributaries that govern the volume of water flowing into Lake Houston from the west.
The West Fork at US59 is still well below flood stage because of the Lake Houston release. Regardless, the river rose there almost 2 feet in the last 16 hours.
Streams Most in Danger of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the heaviest rains to shift from the north toward the south later today. Lindner said, “Rises will continue along upper Spring and upper Cypress Creeks this morning as upstream run-off moves downstream.”
“No flooding is currently expected,” continued Lindner, “but high flows in these creeks will continue today into tomorrow. This area will be particularly sensitive to additional rainfall and will need to be monitored closely.”
“Also watch the San Jacinto River basin,” said Lindner. “Due to the widespread nature of the rains, run-off is starting to work into the basin and minor flooding will be possible along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this week.”
Lindner says the Harris County streams most in danger of flooding include:
Cypress Creek
Spring Creek
Little Cypress Creek
Lower South Mayde Creek
Willow Creek
San Jacinto River basin
All but Mayde Creek flow into Lake Houston. If you are unfamiliar with the watersheds around us, here is a map.
For Most, Life Returned to Normal Today, But Flooding Is Not Done Yet
5PM 1/25/24 – After four days of near constant rainfall, life returned to normal this morning. The sun came out. Birds sang. But for some, the ordeal is not done yet.
Crests on several creeks and area rivers are moving downstream and should converge on the Lake Houston Area this weekend.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, waves of water are still working their way down through our river systems. Low lying areas along both forks are already flooding upstream
Another disturbance will likely produce a few showers Friday afternoon into the evening hours, but accumulations will likely not top a half inch, according to Lindner.
Then dry and cooler weather over the weekend will give the area a chance to dry out. And rivers, creeks, and streams will have time to recede.
Lake Updates
Reservoirs throughout the region are passing large inflows through their gates.
At 5PM, Lake Conroe was three feet above normal and releasing 19,435 cubic feet per second adding to peaks on the West Fork San Jacinto.
Lake Houston was two feet above normal. Its floodgates have remained wide open since last Sunday and water is pouring over the spillway portion of the dam.
River Forecasts Show Peaks Traveling Downstream
Throughout today, flooding continued along several creeks and rivers as upstream flood waves moved downstream. Many of the creeks will be cresting today and falling while several of the rivers will continue to rise into Friday and the weekend as run-off accumulates and moves downstream.
Upper Spring Creek:
upstream of Hegar Road, Spring Creek has crested and is starting to fall quickly. It is near crest from Hegar Road downstream to SH 249. Conditions along the creek and the bridge crossings west of SH 249 will improve into tonight. The creek is still rising downstream of FM 2978 and some minor low land flooding will be possible near the creek banks tonight.
Attempts to cross some of the bridges this morning resulted in high water rescues. Never drive into high water.
Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks:
Mound Creek has crested and begun a very slow fall. The flood wave has reached Sharp Rd. on upper Cypress Creek and Cypress is rising. It will get to or just over bankfull tonight. Portions of Sharp Rd. may become flooded.
Flow may get high down at Katy Hockley. But at this time Lindner is not expecting any widespread impacts at or downstream of Katy Hockley as the capacity of the channel increases from Katy Hockley to US 290.
West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river leveled off today, but will begin a second rise tonight into Friday. Upstream flows at SH 242 and SH 99 as well as flows from Lake Creek are moving downstream.
The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge are under water and will remain flooded well into the weekend.
Several streets on the north bank of the river are flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.
The majority of the flooding will occur south of Hamblen Road, according to Lindner.
However, he says a few locations north of Hamblen could see high water. And I took this photo West of 59 near the river this morning. Homes there were already surrounded by floodwaters.
Most structures in these areas are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated.
Large portions of the Kingwood Golf course are or will be flooded.
Kings Harbor was well above water this morning, But the pier was not. Cue Mr. Clean.
At predicted levels, Lindner says that back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along tributaries such as Bens Branch. However, no flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river has exceeded its banks and will continue to rise into the weekend from north of Plum Grove to Lake Houston.
This afternoon, when I took the shot above, I visited the Plum Grove VFD and found high-water rescue teams prepping for tomorrow and the weekend.
FM 1485 west of the river bridge over the East Fork will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time starting this afternoon.
Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd. will be cut-off.
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston:
Upstream flow through Lake Houston will route into the lower San Jacinto River with high flows lasting through the weekend. Minor flooding is forecasted along the river from below Lake Houston to Galveston Bay. Low lying areas of Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa will experience flooding of roadways and may become cut-off (Rio Villa).
Higher than normal flows will impact vessel traffic around I-10 and vessels should be properly secured for a period of prolonged increased flows and high water levels.
Trinity River:
Major flooding is forecasted from below Lake Livingston to Goodrich and near Liberty. Some homes below the lake will be flooded. Several subdivisions will be cut-off around Liberty and at the current forecasted levels…widespread extensive flooding over portions of Liberty County near the river and its tributaries can be expected.
For More Information
Conditions are changing rapidly. For the most current information, always go straight to the source,
Current water levels and inundation can be found at www.harriscountyfws.org
River forecast can be found at National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner
2340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood Watches and Warnings Extended, Streams Starting to Flood
Update: I just got word that SJRA is starting to increase the release rate from Lake Conroe to up to 19,500 cubic feet per second as of 9PM Wednesday night. Their modeling suggests that will cause the West Fork at US59 to peak at 53.5 feet – above the major flood stage. The previously forecast peak this afternoon was 51.8 feet and flood stage is 49.3 feet. People in low-lying areas near the river, even those in elevated homes, should consider evacuating. The river may not recede below flood stage before next weekend.
National Weather Service (NWS) flood watches and warnings have been extended. Continued heavy rainfall today has many streams especially in the northern part of the Houston Region coming out of their banks.
NWS Houston/Galveston Office predicts that showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least 7am tomorrow, with most areas experiencing a 60% chance of rain. While additional accumulations should be mild tomorrow, the Weather Service warns that higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. The last wave of this marathon mess should push through overnight tonight. The sun may poke out by Thursday afternoon.
In the meantime, we aren’t out of the woods yet.
Flood Watch Through Noon Thursday
NWS has extended flood warnings and issued flood watches for large parts of SE Texas.
Flood Warning Through Midnight Tonight
Much of the area picked up another 1-3 inches today with much higher totals off to the north and northwest from Columbus to Brenham to Lufkin where a swath of 8-12 inches has fallen since Sunday night, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.
Upstream run-off continues to work into creeks in northern Waller, northwest Harris, and Montgomery Counties along with the San Jacinto River basin.
Areas with Flooding Concerns
The Harris County Flood Warning System shows that several channels are already out of their banks (red dots) or in danger of coming out (yellow triangles).
For up-to-the-minute readouts on the status of a channel near you, go to Harris County Flood Warning System. Use the “Map view options” to select Channels, Channel Status. Under site selection, choose All.
Streams with Highest Flood Risk
According to Lindner, several creeks feeding into Lake Houston are already flooding. They include:
Upper Spring Creek:
Low land flooding of rural lands near the creek as well as roadway crossing across the creek is occurring from upstream of SH 249 to the headwaters. Several low bridge crossings over the creek are flooded and some impassable. The creek will peak tonight and begin a fall into Thursday. No structures have flooded. Any low-land flooding downstream of SH 249 will be limited as the capacity of the channel increases.
Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks:
Low-land flooding is ongoing along Mound Creek from eastern Waller County into extreme western Harris County. Water levels will peak tonight, then fall into Thursday. Flow from Little Mound Creek will route into upper Cypress Creek where a rise to near bankfull is likely around Sharp Rd. Sharp Rd may become inundated on Thursday. No structure flooding foreseen.
West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river is rising and will exceed its banks this evening and continue to rise into moderate flood levels over 50.0 ft on Thursday with a forecasted peak near 52.0 ft on Friday. At these levels, low land flooding will occur along much of the river from upstream of US 59 to Lake Houston.
The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge crossing will be under several feet of water. The City of Houston has already closed off traffic under the turnarounds.
Several streets on the north bank of the river will be flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.
The few structures in this area are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated. At these levels back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along these tributaries. No flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
The river is rising and will exceed its banks early Thursday and then continue to rise into moderate flood levels by late Friday into Saturday. FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time. Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd will be cut-off. The river is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.
Lake Houston:
Water levels will be elevated likely to the top or just over the top of bulkheads and docks in the lake as upstream flows are passed through the lake. Additionally, large amounts of floating debris will make any boating hazardous into the weekend.
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston:
While flooding is currently not forecasted, given the amount of water that will be moving through Lake Houston and over the spillway, a rise to potentially near flood levels is certainly possible downstream of Lake Houston at Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa. Low lying roads near the river may become inundated. Any possible flooding at locations below Lake Houston would be this weekend.
Lake Releases
At 5PM 1/24/24, the SJRA dashboard showed that Lake Conroe as at 203.78 feet, almost 3 feet above its normal elevation of 201 feet. SJRA has temporarily closed Lake Conroe because of high currents, submerged objects and floating debris.
Because of continuing high inflows, SJRA was releasing 16,525 cubic feet per second at 5PM. They have steadily increased the volume released for the last three days.
To put this in perspective, 16,525 CFS is half the discharge rate of Lake Conroe during the October 1994 storm. And it’s about a fifth of the maximum release rate during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Farther south, Houston Public Works has had its flood gates wide open since Sunday. Regardless, water is now going over the spillway. Normal lake level is 42.4 ft and it’s currently at 43.57 ft.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, water has been going over the top of the spillway since 4AM this morning.
Helpful Resources
Weather conditions can change rapidly. For current information, go straight to these sources:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/24/24 at 6PM
2339 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NWS Issues Flood Watch
Early this morning, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for areas north of the Houston Metropolitan area. It will remain in effect through midnight tonight.
As of 2PM, NWS extended the flood watch to include Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties through Wednesday morning.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts heavy rainfall toward I-10 and the coast by tonight. More rain on top of what has already fallen along with elevated creeks and streams led to issuing the flood watches.
Five of the six watersheds most in danger of flooding flow into the Lake Houston Area. And the SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe.
Forecast for Next 48 Hours
The ground has generally been saturated by yesterday’s rain and NWS predicts additional heavy rains today and tomorrow. The total could approach another 4.5 inches in the Lake Houston Area and even more to the north and west.
Those same areas received the highest rainfall totals yesterday on 1/22/24. Luckily, the rain has been fairly spread out until now.
Only One Stream in Region Currently Out of Banks
The San Jacinto West Fork came out of its banks at Highway 30 yesterday afternoon and is still out at noon on Tuesday, although waters have receded approximately a foot since the peak early this morning.
However, the Harris County Flood Warning system is also flashing warning signs for areas in the upper Cypress and Spring Creek Watersheds. All of those creeks are still within their banks as of noon Tuesday.
The map below shows the rainfall totals for the last 48 hours. Note how they peak in the north and west.
A gage on the Trinity River just west of Lake Livingston (not shown below) received 4.8 inches in the last 36 hours.
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Releasing Water
Heavy rains north and west of Lake Conroe have led the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to open the floodgates at Lake Conroe. The lake level is currently at 201.61 feet (normal 201) and the SJRA is releasing at a rate of 2665 cubic feet per second as a precaution against much larger releases later.
The City began releasing water from Lake Houston last Sunday in anticipation of this rainfall. At the noon hour on 1/23/24, Lake Houston is still slightly below normal. It is at 41.57 feet; normal is 42.4. But there’s much more headed toward the dam.
How to Monitor Flood Potential
If you live near water, monitor conditions closely.
Remember: It’s not just the rain that falls where you are at that causes flooding. Look upstream to see what’s coming at you.
We should begin to see some rises in the Lake Houston Area soon because of Lake Conroe releases and the heavy rainfall upstream on Spring and Cypress Creeks. They are the three main tributaries that govern the volume of water flowing into Lake Houston from the west.
The West Fork at US59 is still well below flood stage because of the Lake Houston release. Regardless, the river rose there almost 2 feet in the last 16 hours.
Streams Most in Danger of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the heaviest rains to shift from the north toward the south later today. Lindner said, “Rises will continue along upper Spring and upper Cypress Creeks this morning as upstream run-off moves downstream.”
“No flooding is currently expected,” continued Lindner, “but high flows in these creeks will continue today into tomorrow. This area will be particularly sensitive to additional rainfall and will need to be monitored closely.”
“Also watch the San Jacinto River basin,” said Lindner. “Due to the widespread nature of the rains, run-off is starting to work into the basin and minor flooding will be possible along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this week.”
Lindner says the Harris County streams most in danger of flooding include:
All but Mayde Creek flow into Lake Houston. If you are unfamiliar with the watersheds around us, here is a map.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/24
2338 Days since Hurricane Harvey