7/2/24 – Beryl has become an incredibly intense hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 935mb. See this Infrared Satellite Loop at Tropical Tidbits. This is an unprecedented hurricane event for July.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record since 1851. It beats out hurricane Emily (2005), which became a Category 5 on July 17.
Beryl is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Status Overview as of 8 AM 7/2/24
Based on NOAA aircraft data, hurricane force winds (75mph) extend outward 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds (40mph) extend outward 125 miles from the center.
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today. It should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it passes Jamaica and the Caymans.
Intensity Forecast Uncertain
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that Beryl’s intensity forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as:
Possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain
Dry air intrusions
Structure of the vertical wind shear
…will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
As Beryl approaches the Yucatan, models show quite a wide range of solutions – from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. However, the NHC forecast shows Beryl reaching the Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 hours and emerging as a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Track Shifted North
Beryl has tracked slightly north of predictions during the last 12 hours. This is likely due to the much stronger intensity of the hurricane.
Overall the direction has been trending north over the last 24 hours. Beryl is being steered by a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A W to WNW motion through the next 72 hours is likely. That will likely bring core of the hurricane to the eastern Yucatan early Friday morning.
Beryl will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. At that time, the current ridge of high pressure over the southern plains will be breaking down and moving east. Low pressure should replace it, pulling Beryl a little more to north, compared to the current track.
However, there is also uncertainty with the track in the Gulf of Mexico. It is difficult to tell how organized Beryl will be when it emerges from the Yucatan. It is also difficult to predict how quickly the southern plains high will break down.
Such factors also will affect the forward speed of the hurricane.
Due to Beryl’s high forward speed, it could drop a foot of rain on Jamaica. But as it slows in the Gulf…
Lindner urges people along the Texas and Louisiana coast to monitor Beryl’s progress closely. NHC is now updating information on Beryl every few hours on this page.
For those who need a refresher course in hurricane preparation, ReduceFlooding’s Links page contains advice from 19 authoritative sources.
7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.
Climatology Data from NHC
Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.
However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.
Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.
3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic
At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating
The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.
Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4
The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.
150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.
NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.
Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”
Central Atlantic Still Disturbed
A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.
Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.
Note Beryl spinning on the far left of the image above!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/24 based on information from NOAA and NHC
2498 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Hurricane-Climatology.png?fit=2218%2C1366&ssl=113662218adminadmin2024-07-01 14:15:552024-07-02 18:49:17Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead
6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.
Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.
4PM Update on Beryl
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.
Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24
As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.
So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.
Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.
Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.
Sea Surface Temps in Gulf
If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.
Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.
Record-Breaking Beryl
As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:
Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.
Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-4pm-5.30.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C817&ssl=18171100adminadmin2024-06-30 16:40:092024-06-30 20:18:23Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day
Beryl Becomes Earliest Cat 5 Hurricane Ever
7/2/24 – Beryl has become an incredibly intense hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 935mb. See this Infrared Satellite Loop at Tropical Tidbits. This is an unprecedented hurricane event for July.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record since 1851. It beats out hurricane Emily (2005), which became a Category 5 on July 17.
Beryl is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Status Overview as of 8 AM 7/2/24
Based on NOAA aircraft data, hurricane force winds (75mph) extend outward 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds (40mph) extend outward 125 miles from the center.
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today. It should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it passes Jamaica and the Caymans.
Intensity Forecast Uncertain
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that Beryl’s intensity forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as:
…will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
As Beryl approaches the Yucatan, models show quite a wide range of solutions – from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. However, the NHC forecast shows Beryl reaching the Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 hours and emerging as a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Track Shifted North
Beryl has tracked slightly north of predictions during the last 12 hours. This is likely due to the much stronger intensity of the hurricane.
Overall the direction has been trending north over the last 24 hours. Beryl is being steered by a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A W to WNW motion through the next 72 hours is likely. That will likely bring core of the hurricane to the eastern Yucatan early Friday morning.
Beryl will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. At that time, the current ridge of high pressure over the southern plains will be breaking down and moving east. Low pressure should replace it, pulling Beryl a little more to north, compared to the current track.
However, there is also uncertainty with the track in the Gulf of Mexico. It is difficult to tell how organized Beryl will be when it emerges from the Yucatan. It is also difficult to predict how quickly the southern plains high will break down.
Such factors also will affect the forward speed of the hurricane.
Due to Beryl’s high forward speed, it could drop a foot of rain on Jamaica. But as it slows in the Gulf…
Lindner urges people along the Texas and Louisiana coast to monitor Beryl’s progress closely. NHC is now updating information on Beryl every few hours on this page.
For those who need a refresher course in hurricane preparation, ReduceFlooding’s Links page contains advice from 19 authoritative sources.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/24
2499 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead
7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.
Climatology Data from NHC
Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.
However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.
Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.
3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic
At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating
The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.
Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4
The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.
150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.
NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.
Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”
Central Atlantic Still Disturbed
A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.
Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.
Note Beryl spinning on the far left of the image above!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/24 based on information from NOAA and NHC
2498 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day
6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.
4PM Update on Beryl
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.
As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.
So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.
Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.
Sea Surface Temps in Gulf
If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.
It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.
Record-Breaking Beryl
As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:
Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey