6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.
Chances of Development
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”
The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.
Potential Tracks for Red Area
More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.
Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season
We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.
That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.
Current Satellite View of Two Systems
Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.
Better to Be Prepared
As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM
2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Tropics-6.27.24.png?fit=1354%2C1000&ssl=110001354adminadmin2024-06-27 17:18:392024-06-27 18:57:56Potential Trouble in the Tropics
After four years, not one of the recommendations from the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan is in design yet.
In the summer of 2020, Harris County Flood Control District, the City of Houston, Montgomery County, and the San Jacinto River Authority released a massive study on how to address flooding in the upper San Jacinto River Basin. But four years later, not one of the 16 main recommendations has been constructed. In fact, none are even in design yet, according to one source I talked to for this post.
Cost, political willpower, eminent-domain issues, and jurisdictional boundaries seem to have torpedoed any progress.
However, Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Flood Management Division Director, says, “No construction has started on any of the major project recommendations (detention and channelization projects).”
Another source familiar with the plan complained that none are even in design yet. That source also cited unfavorable cost benefit ratios.
Expected Benefits of Plan
If built, these projects could make a real difference for people throughout Montgomery County and northern Harris County.
The following table shows how much the water surface elevation could be reduced in a 100-year storm at a number of locations if the recommendations were implemented.
The 2020 study estimated that building all these projects could cost up to $3.3 billion. They would cost more today. We’ve had 20% inflation since then.
The total in today’s dollars could easily approach $4 billion. That’s a pretty major ask for taxpayers.
But the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond (approved before the study) included only $18.75 million dollars for “Funding for Future Partnership Projects Based on Results of Study – for Right-of-Way Acquisition, Design, and Construction of General Drainage Improvements in San Jacinto River Watershed Study.” See Project C-50.
Political Willpower
Funding for the gap will not come from any of the study sponsors.
Harris County Commissioners Court has prioritized “equity” projects in low-to-moderate income areas inside the Beltway. Some have even declared they will never vote for spending money outside of Harris County.
Most of the projects are outside the City of Houston and its extra-territorial jurisdiction.
The San Jacinto River Authority doesn’t have an income stream to fund the improvements.
And most Montgomery County Commissioners don’t see flooding as their most pressing problem.
Understandably, no one has seized the reins for these projects. Even if physically feasible, they don’t seem politically feasible at this point.
Eminent Domain and Jurisdictional Boundaries
Worse, 10 of the 16 projects are large stormwater detention areas that would likely require invoking eminent domain. That’s always politically dicey for politicians. Especially when the major benefits would accrue to downstream residents outside of their precincts – and even outside of their own county.
Better Lake Conroe Management Not Enough
As this multi-million study has been consigned to dusty bookshelves, flood-weary residents have increasingly pinned their hopes on better management of the Lake Conroe dam.
Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has morphed into “Active Storm Management,” a compromise between upstream and downstream interests on the San Jacinto West Fork. Instead of lowering the lake for set amounts for set periods of time each year, dam operators are now trying to lower it temporarily on the fly in advance of approaching storms. But that presents its own set of problems.
It also doesn’t affect water funneling in from other watersheds. The Lake Conroe watershed comprises only 13% of the Lake Houston watershed. That means rain falling over 87% of the area upstream from Lake Houston has nothing to slow it down.
Lake Houston Gates Not Enough Either
Farther downstream, the City of Houston has been designing new gates for the Lake Houston Dam. They will help lower floods in the Lake Houston Area somewhat. But they won’t help people upstream. And they have run into one problem after another.
For instance, the City could not find any contractors willing to bid on the recommended alternative – building crest gates on the 70-year old spillway. It was just too risky. So, the City is now redesigning the entire project.
So what can we do to refocus attention and gain momentum behind the projects in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan?
In my opinion, we need to see the state take over execution of the plan. There are just too many conflicting interests at the local level.
We need to make one person/entity responsible for executing the plan.
Bob Rehak
The logical choice would be someone at the Texas Water Development Board. It’s assembling a state flood plan that includes the San Jacinto River Basin.
So how do we make that happen? We need to engage our state leaders.
Charles Cunningham, Texas State Representative, District 127, 512-463-0520
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Project-Location-Map.jpg?fit=1238%2C1400&ssl=114001238adminadmin2024-06-26 18:15:072024-06-26 18:15:08After 4 Years, No Recommendations from River Basin Master Drainage Plan in Design Yet
The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).
They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.
Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.
It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”
Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.
Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024
Spring
Beginning April 1 through June 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe from normal pool of 201’ msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for forecasted storm event inflows (to 200.5’ msl). The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between April 1 and June 1.
In the event a major rainfall is forecasted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.0’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 200.0’ msl could occur.
Fall
Beginning August 1 through October 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe if actual lake levels are at normal pool of 201 msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.5’ msl). After Labor Day, storage capacity may be increased an additional six inches (to 200.0’ msl). Diversion volumes requested to reach intended levels will be dependent on the actual lake levels. The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between August 1 and October 1.
If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 199.5’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 199.5’ msl could occur.
Protocol – Lake Houston
Year Round
City of Houston will initiate releases to lower Lake Houston prior to major rainfall events.
Conservation Pool Elevation is 42.4’ msl.
Lake Houston level reduced to 41.4’ msl if a 24-hour rainfall forecast of 3 inches or more is expected. within the Lake Houston watershed.
Under extraordinary weather circumstances, Lake Houston level may be reduced below 41.4’.
Duration
The Protocols above will extend to the end of 2024 but will be reviewed by the stakeholders in October/November of 2024. During the review, the stakeholders will discuss strategies that extend beyond 2024.
Advocacy and Education
All stakeholders will work to support flood mitigation projects and efforts across the upper watershed, including improvement of land use regulations to reduce runoff from new development in counties that contribute flow to Lake Houston.
Because public education regarding completed and ongoing downstream mitigation efforts is critical to generating upstream support for continued active storm management at Lake Conroe, all stakeholders agree to educate their constituents regarding: active storm management protocols being implemented at Lake Houston, completed and ongoing sediment removal projects in the San Jacinto River basin and Lake Houston, and continued progress on the Lake Houston spillway modifications.
Because of its impact on effective active storm management, all stakeholders will support City of Houston and SJRA efforts to amend the Certificate of Adjudication for Lake Conroe to increase the maximum diversion rate.
All stakeholders agree to support efforts to limit further construction of habitable structures around Lake Conroe below elevation 207’ msl.
Important Notes
All water released from Lake Conroe as part of active storm management is being accounted for from the City of Houston’s 2/3 share and reported to TCEQ by the City of Houston. Therefore, all final decisions on diversions are ultimately the City’s and must be communicated to the SJRA in writing. This includes defining active storm management protocols.
All flood mitigation protocols could be limited due to drought conditions.
Rehak’s Summary
Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.
Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.
All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.
All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:
Land use regulations that reduce runoff
Education of residents re:
Active storm management protocols at Lake Houston
Construction progress of more Lake Houston gates
Sediment removal projects
An increase in the maximum pre-release rate for Lake Conroe
Limiting future construction around Lake Conroe to a safe level (207 feet above sea level).
The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.
Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.
The City makes all decisions on releases.
Its decisions are final.
The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.
Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates
However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.
For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24
2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Release-Water-Any-Time.png?fit=2832%2C806&ssl=18062832adminadmin2024-06-25 11:14:472024-06-25 12:24:10“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.
Potential Trouble in the Tropics
6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.
Chances of Development
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”
The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.
Potential Tracks for Red Area
More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.
Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season
We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.
That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.
Current Satellite View of Two Systems
Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.
Better to Be Prepared
As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM
2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey
After 4 Years, No Recommendations from River Basin Master Drainage Plan in Design Yet
After four years, not one of the recommendations from the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan is in design yet.
In the summer of 2020, Harris County Flood Control District, the City of Houston, Montgomery County, and the San Jacinto River Authority released a massive study on how to address flooding in the upper San Jacinto River Basin. But four years later, not one of the 16 main recommendations has been constructed. In fact, none are even in design yet, according to one source I talked to for this post.
Cost, political willpower, eminent-domain issues, and jurisdictional boundaries seem to have torpedoed any progress.
Major Recommendations in Plan
The 3,600 page study contained 16 main recommendations.
Here’s where they are.
However, Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Flood Management Division Director, says, “No construction has started on any of the major project recommendations (detention and channelization projects).”
Another source familiar with the plan complained that none are even in design yet. That source also cited unfavorable cost benefit ratios.
Expected Benefits of Plan
If built, these projects could make a real difference for people throughout Montgomery County and northern Harris County.
The following table shows how much the water surface elevation could be reduced in a 100-year storm at a number of locations if the recommendations were implemented.
Cost Issue
The 2020 study estimated that building all these projects could cost up to $3.3 billion. They would cost more today. We’ve had 20% inflation since then.
The total in today’s dollars could easily approach $4 billion. That’s a pretty major ask for taxpayers.
But the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond (approved before the study) included only $18.75 million dollars for “Funding for Future Partnership Projects Based on Results of Study – for Right-of-Way Acquisition, Design, and Construction of General Drainage Improvements in San Jacinto River Watershed Study.” See Project C-50.
Political Willpower
Funding for the gap will not come from any of the study sponsors.
Harris County Commissioners Court has prioritized “equity” projects in low-to-moderate income areas inside the Beltway. Some have even declared they will never vote for spending money outside of Harris County.
Most of the projects are outside the City of Houston and its extra-territorial jurisdiction.
The San Jacinto River Authority doesn’t have an income stream to fund the improvements.
And most Montgomery County Commissioners don’t see flooding as their most pressing problem.
Understandably, no one has seized the reins for these projects. Even if physically feasible, they don’t seem politically feasible at this point.
Eminent Domain and Jurisdictional Boundaries
Worse, 10 of the 16 projects are large stormwater detention areas that would likely require invoking eminent domain. That’s always politically dicey for politicians. Especially when the major benefits would accrue to downstream residents outside of their precincts – and even outside of their own county.
Better Lake Conroe Management Not Enough
As this multi-million study has been consigned to dusty bookshelves, flood-weary residents have increasingly pinned their hopes on better management of the Lake Conroe dam.
Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has morphed into “Active Storm Management,” a compromise between upstream and downstream interests on the San Jacinto West Fork. Instead of lowering the lake for set amounts for set periods of time each year, dam operators are now trying to lower it temporarily on the fly in advance of approaching storms. But that presents its own set of problems.
It also doesn’t affect water funneling in from other watersheds. The Lake Conroe watershed comprises only 13% of the Lake Houston watershed. That means rain falling over 87% of the area upstream from Lake Houston has nothing to slow it down.
Lake Houston Gates Not Enough Either
Farther downstream, the City of Houston has been designing new gates for the Lake Houston Dam. They will help lower floods in the Lake Houston Area somewhat. But they won’t help people upstream. And they have run into one problem after another.
For instance, the City could not find any contractors willing to bid on the recommended alternative – building crest gates on the 70-year old spillway. It was just too risky. So, the City is now redesigning the entire project.
Just three years ago, the project was scheduled for completion this summer. But the timetable has been delayed at least another four years.
Time to Reboot the Master Drainage Plan: But How?
So what can we do to refocus attention and gain momentum behind the projects in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan?
In my opinion, we need to see the state take over execution of the plan. There are just too many conflicting interests at the local level.
The logical choice would be someone at the Texas Water Development Board. It’s assembling a state flood plan that includes the San Jacinto River Basin.
So how do we make that happen? We need to engage our state leaders.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/24
2493 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.
The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).
They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.
Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.
It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”
Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.
Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024
Spring
Fall
Protocol – Lake Houston
Duration
Advocacy and Education
Important Notes
Rehak’s Summary
Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.
Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.
All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.
All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:
The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.
Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.
The City makes all decisions on releases.
Its decisions are final.
The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.
Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates
A release during Tropical Storm Alberto in June this year triggered a protest from the Lake Conroe Association because it fell outside the dates indicated above (April/May and August/September).
However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.
For the historical record, here is the actual contract between the City and SJRA re: the operation of Lake Conroe.
For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24
2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey